Bryan Power

THE PLAY: New York Mets -144 J Taillon (RHP), L Severino (RHP) Must Start

A Heartbreaking loss Sunday night for the Cubbies, who rallied from a 4-run deficit in Boston to tie the game, only to then lose in the bottom of the ninth on a bloop single that was nearly caught. Remember the Cubs also lost 17-0 to the Red Sox on Saturday. So they’re reeling a bit. 

And now, off the Sunday night loss, they must travel to New York to face the Mets. Typically, I look to fade teams that have to travel after playing Sunday night and I would do so here. Meanwhile, the Mets avoided a three-game sweep Sunday by beating the Cardinals 4-2 in extra innings. 

Luis Severino is on the mound for them tonight. Over his last four starts, Severino has allowed just seven runs total (two of them unearned) on 14 hits. So sell on the Cubs Monday, who are in a tough spot as the Mets should take this series opener, behind Severino. 

THE PLAY: Miami Heat Total Over 96.5 (-110)

A little surprising that there’s been little line movement here after the Celtics crushed the Heat 104-84 right here in Miami in Game 3. They closed as 9.5-point favorites in that one. Now they’re -10.5 for tonight, which is pretty much where the number opened. Looking at the WagerTalk dot com odds screen, there is no doubt that the Celtics are a public side tonight. There’s also been little movement with the total, which opened 203.5. It’s now either 203.5 or 203, across the board.

For tonight, believe it or not, I like the Heat Over their team total of 96.5. Look, I cashed the Heat’s Team Total Over in Game 2 when they made a NBA playoff record 23 threes. Not saying they’re going to be anywhere near that prolific again tonight, but 97 points really isn’t asking for much. I can pretty much guarantee that the Heat will shoot better than they did in Game 3 - when they were 41.6% overall from the field including 9 of 28 from three. 

Why I like this Team Total Over - as opposed to taking the +10.5 - is simple. We don’t have to worry about whether or not the Heat get blown out. All we need from them is 97 points and I think they will get there. Off a loss this season, they are averaging 112.2 PPG. Not having Jimmy Butler is a big loss, yes, but that doesn’t impact the three-point shooting.