3% San Diego (8:40 ET): I feel that - coming into the season - the Padres were being a bit overvalued. Yes, they’re in the same division as the Dodgers and the reigning NL Champion D’backs. But with SD, we’re talking about a team that massively underachieved in 2023. Look no further than LY’s run differential (+104) - which was third best in the entire Senior Circuit - so clearly the Padres should have finished with a better record than 82-80. Consider that they were an extremely unfortunate 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra innings. For a frame of reference, the D’backs finished the regular season with a -15 run differential, yet had two more wins than the Padres! 

Of course, Philadelphia was the team the D’backs ended up beating in the NLCS. Coming into 2024, the Phillies are again expected to be contenders and they’ve started 17-10 after winning 8 of the last 10 ball games. That includes a pretty dominant 9-3 victory last night in the series opener at Petco Park, thanks to FIVE home runs and eight strong innings from starter Aaron Nola. Kyle Schwarber set the tone early with a 2-run HR on Joe Musgrove’s 4th pitch. But realize that yesterday was a TERRIBLE spot for the Padres, who were coming off a brutal 10-9 loss at Colorado where the bullpen squandered a 5-run lead in the bottom of the eighth. 

Eventually, San Diego WILL start to win some of these close ones. Tonight, we have what looks to be an outstanding pitching matchup with Ranger Suarez opposing Dylan Cease. As great as Suarez has been (1.36 ERA, 0.697 WHIP), Cease has the numbers to match (1.82, 0.741). But I prefer the Padres’ bullpen, even in light of what happened Thursday. Phillies’ relievers have a 5.78 ERA. SD also still has the better offense, by the numbers (especially with Manny Machado back). The Padres are 5-1 vs. LH starters thus far and it’s telling that Suarez is a dog. 3% San Diego (Play to -130)