Free Sports Predictions APR 26: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

The Rays look to have shifted gears, on a season-best four-game win streak after sweeping out the Twins on the weekend, and the pitching staff excelling, allowing only six runs across the surge.

Tonight, Steven Matz will try to match the recent work of his Tampa Bay pitching comrades, and should be primed after a rare shaky effort vs. the Reds, which came in the heels of three solid efforts. The challenge is Cleveland starter Parker Messick, impressive in each of his outings, though the Guardians offense slowed to a crawl in weekend losses at Toronto. Play Rays on Money Line

Released/revised 56 minute(s) ago

Two pitchers who dominate the batters they face today and one team in a huge flat spot.

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TBR baseline offense: 132 runs in 27 games, .258/.335/.394, .729 OPS. CLE baseline offense: 118 runs in 29 games, .231/.319/.380, .699 OPS. TBR starts higher on raw offense, while CLE receives the home-field edge but gets a small returning-home flat-spot deduction after finishing in Toronto.

Parker Messick receives the strongest starter upgrade: 2026 profile of 3-0, 1.76 ERA, 29 K, plus stronger contact control than ERA-only regression would show. Against TBR in the 2025 window, Messick produced 13.0 IP, 12 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, which pulls TBR’s first-five expectation down.

Steven Matz is projected shorter and less clean: 2026 line of 3-1, 4.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25 K. Removing the 2024 CLE outing from the pasted matchup history leaves 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K versus CLE since 3/1/2025.

TBR’s recent offense is stronger: 50 runs over the last 10 games with a .728 OPS sample. CLE’s last-10 offensive form grades slightly lower at 44 runs and roughly .708 OPS. Weather is cool but not extreme; cold April night air trims home-run carry slightly, while no-bottom-9 probability trims CLE’s full-game mean by about 0.1 run.

Projected final: CLE 4.0, TBR 3.6
Projected 1st 5: CLE 2.2, TBR 1.8

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Dating back to 2002, Round 1 underdogs of less than 5 points are just 2-11 SU / 3-10 ATS after shooting 45% or better from three in a win as a dog. Even more telling, those same teams are 10-3 to the team total under in that spot.

That’s a strong signal of shooting regression after an outlier performance.

Now apply that here. You’ve got a team that ranks bottom five in three-point percentage on the season, coming off a game where they shot lights out, facing a top five defense. That’s not a recipe for repeat success, it’s a setup for a correction.

The Magic are also just 3-7 SU/ATS this season after shooting 45% or better from deep in their previous game, reinforcing the idea that these spike performances don’t carry over.

Bottom line: expecting Orlando to duplicate that level of shooting is unrealistic. Regression is the far more likely outcome.  This game will look like game 2 where Detroit bounced back holding Orlando to 83 points.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Taking the Cardinals over the Pirates to start off this week's action on the diamond. St. Louis starter Dusty May has been really sharp his last three times out. Letting up just 3 runs over his last 17 plus innings and only issuing 2 free passes. The righty has shown signs of dominating throughout his career, particularly when he has kept his walks down. Up against a cold Pittsburgh lineup this should be another solid outing for the hard throwing hurler. This one just missed today's client card. For Monday's free pick- Bet the Red Birds at the plus price. I will be in with video analysis tomorrow...

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Monday- Cubs (-102) WINNER
Saturday- White Sox/ A's over 9.5 (-115) WINNER
Friday- Brewers/ Marlins over 8.5 (-105) WINNER
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Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
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Tuesday- Diamondbacks (+135) WINNER

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Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Utah won the first NHL playoff game in Utah, defeating the Golden Knights 4-2 on Friday for a 2-1 series lead. The Knight’s loss is significant because NHL road favorites of less than -200 are 1078-651 (62.3%; +9.2% ROI) with same-season revenge. Let’s also note that NHL playoff road favorites of -180 or less coming off a loss are 104-57 (64.6%; +13.8% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win. Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3181-2155 (59.6%; +2.6% ROI), while NHL playoff road favorites are 246-159 (60.7%; +5.9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2003-4 season. I also like the fact that Vegas is 253-157 (61.7%; +6.2% ROI) as conference favorites of less than -320 in games with totals of 5.5 to 6 goals. The line in this game is significant because NHL road teams priced between -110 and -120 are 598-328 (64.6%; +22% ROI) versus opponents priced between -101 and -110. Finally, since 2002, NHL road favorites with two days of rest are 834-477 (63.6%; +7.1% ROI) versus opponents with two or fewer days of rest. Take the Vegas Golden Knights as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, April 27.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Since 1996, NBA road favorites of 5 points or more in games with totals over 210 are 339-211-18 to the Over (61.6%) following a game that went over the total, provided one additional parameter is satisfied: going over the total by an average margin of +4.0 points per game. The point spread is significant in this game because non-division conference NBA games with double-digit spreads are 616-510-31 to the Over (55%), including 412-327-11 OVER (55.8%) since 2019. Moreover, double-digit NBA favorites are 230-181-8 to the Over (56%) from Game 76 forward, including 151-107-1 OVER (58.5%) since 2021, going over by an average of 3.4 points per game. Similarly, double-digit conference underdogs in games with totals under 220 points are 108-82-4 to the Over (56.8%), including 61-38-3 OVER (61.6%) since 2023. Finally, since 2015, Round 1 NBA home underdogs by more than 3 points are 22-13-3 to the Over (62.9%), including 17-8-1 OVER (68%) since April 27, 2018, covering the total by an average of 5.5 points per game. Take the Over in the Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, April 27.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to Game 4: "The Penguins are down 3-0. The last time that a team rallied from a 3-0 deficit was in 2014, when the Kings rallied to come back against the Sharks. That was just the fourth time in NHL history that it happened. While the Pens' chances of winning the series are now very slim, they won't go down without a fight. It's possible that they'll be facing the Flyers' back-up goalie as starter Dan Vladar is a game-time decision. Either way, I expect them to find a way to score some goals. They'll need to as the Flyers are averaging 3.7 goals per game in the series. If trailing, given its situation, we'll see Pittsburgh pull its goalie earlier than normal. Play the Over 5.5 "

The Penguins never had to pull their goalie but they did indeed fight and score some goals. Their final goal in a 4-2 win came on the Flyers empty net. That makes seven of the past 10 meetings which have produced at least six combined goals. I feel that Monday's Game 5 has a strong shot at doing the same. Play the Over 5.5 

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago