Free Sports Predictions SEP 25: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

The D-backs have made things interesting the past week, winning five straight to keep alive their faint playoff hopes. As for the Padres, they are already qualified, but motivated to win as that would mean sewing up home field in the wild card round if they can maintain their edge on the Cubs and Phils.

Though Casey Mize hasn’t been effective on the mound since his deadline add from Detroit (6.64 ERA since), San Diego is nonetheless winning in the games he starts, three straight and six of the last eight, while the Padres hit this final weekend on a 15-2 tear. Can Torey Lovullo trust the current form of D-backs starter Brandon Pfaadt (5.30 ERA in last six starts) to deliver in a must-win game? Play Padres on Money Line

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Cleveland starter Gavin Williams projects to give up 2.3 runs with a 3.26 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Kansas City’s lineup has hit just .196 (27-138) with a weak .647 OPS against Williams in his career.  The Royals will start Noah Cameron.  The lefty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.26 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in the Cleveland’s favor, look for the Guardians to get a solid home win in this game on Friday night.

Play GUARDIANS (-).

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On the over in Jordan-Hare stadium Saturday afternoon. Auburn comes in with the #1 fastest tempo offense in the country, running a play every 20 seconds flat through three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt is a top 30 team in the country by that same metric. Combine two offenses moving quickly and Vandy making the switch to Jared Curtis at QB and the young highly touted recruit looked sharp in the no huddle scheme. More of the same projected in this one. Bet over.

🔥 12-1 (92%) College Football run (+52% PROFIT).

20-6 (77%) All 5% picks (66% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

Last week’s CFB Free Pick Recap: 1-0 (+1 unit)

Florida/ Auburn Over 52.5 WINNER

I talked about the free play in more depth on the video below....

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Arizona (#481)

The Daily Double video below offers my take for Vikings - Bucs and 49ers - Cardinals on Sunday. Here’s a brief write-up of San Fran - Arizona.

The 49ers are coming off a blowout win in Australia followed by a blowout win after returning home against a pretty putrid Dolphins team.  I’m not convinced San Francisco is going to make it three blowouts in a row when Arizona comes to town on Sunday; a natural flat spot on their schedule.  The 49ers are dealing with cluster injuries at wide receiver — this is a ‘survive and advance’ kind of game.  And it’s surely worth noting that all four teams that lost by 20+ in Week 1 won and coversed the spread in Week 2. Arizona lost by 24 to Seattle last week, primed for a bounceback showing here.  Take the Cardinals

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Take Northwestern (#309)

The Daily Double video below offers my take for Clemson - Cal and Northwestern - Indiana on Friday NIght.  Here’s a brief write-up of NW - Indy.

Indiana’s run from perinniel Big 10 bottom feeder to playoff team in 2024 and then national champion in 2025 is an accomplishment that I’ve never seen before in my 29 years betting in Las Vegas.  That said, the days of Indiana going under the radar and being a ‘value laden’ squad have come and gone, as clearly evidenced by their 0-fer 2026 ATS record.  Meanwhile, with Chip Kelly designing the offense, and veteran transfer QB Aiden Chiles running it, Northwestern has scored 75 points through their first two games; showing legitimate ‘bet-on’ potential moving forward.  Too many points!  Take Northwestern

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

CAROLINA–CLEVELAND OVER 42.5

I like the Over 42.5 in Carolina–Cleveland. The Panthers have been one of the NFL's most productive offenses through two weeks, averaging 35.5 points and 400+ yards per game. Bryce Young has thrown for 600+ yards and six touchdowns with just one interception, and Carolina is coming off a 34-point performance against Atlanta.

The matchup also sets up well for Carolina to continue scoring. Cleveland has allowed 53 points through two games, and the Browns' defense has given up touchdowns in both contests. If Carolina gets into the high 20s, we don't need Cleveland to have a huge offensive afternoon to get this total over.

That's where I see the biggest opportunity. Cleveland's offense has been mediocre statistically — just 16.5 points and 269.5 yards per game — but Deshaun Watson has completed nearly 77% of his passes and has thrown three touchdowns against only one interception. The Browns also just scored 24 points against Tampa Bay, so getting into the 20s at home isn't an unreasonable expectation.

The Panthers' defense is another reason I don't need Cleveland to be spectacular. Carolina allowed 59 points in Week 1 before dramatically improving and holding Atlanta to only three points in Week 2. Keep in mind the Falcons were starting their 19th string QB. I think Cleveland can find enough offensive success to keep pace.

A score in the neighborhood of Carolina 27, Cleveland 20 gets us there, and Carolina has already demonstrated it can score in the 30s.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

DETROIT LIONS -6.5 vs. NEW YORK JETS

I’m laying the 6.5 points with Detroit. The Lions are coming off a disappointing 41-31 loss to Buffalo, but that game also showed just how explosive this Detroit offense can be. Jared Goff threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns, while Jahmyr Gibbs was a major factor both running and receiving. Detroit is averaging 31 points per game through two weeks.

The matchup I really like is Detroit’s offense against a Jets secondary that is about to face a significant step up in competition. New York has been outstanding defensively, ranking No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed and No. 2 against both the run and pass. But the Jets have yet to face an offense with the weapons and balance Detroit brings.

What I saw last week, especially in the 2nd half against the Bills, was a Lions offensive that was starting to click. We saw those deep slants and those long outs connecting and this will not be good for teams that can’t keep up. The Lions are putting up points at home against anyone and the Jets will at some point punt to many times.

I also expect Detroit to respond after the Buffalo loss. The Lions allowed 41 points and had major communication problems defensively, but they now return home to Ford Field for the first time since Week 1. The Jets, meanwhile, are coming off a 20-17 overtime loss to Green Bay and now have to travel to Detroit.

There are concerns with Detroit's defense, particularly in the secondary. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph remain unavailable, and Avonte Maddox suffered a season-ending injury. But that also makes me more confident that Detroit will attack aggressively on offense rather than play conservatively. I just don’t think the Jets can fully take advantage of that.

The Jets are 1-1, but their offense has yet to demonstrate that it can consistently keep pace in a high-scoring game. Detroit has the offensive firepower to create separation, and -6.5 is a number I’m willing to lay at home.

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Free Play:

Rodolfo Vieira win by knockout or submission (+120)

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Tokyo Brandon is +profit again in 2026! Get 6 days for the price of three on a triple play special here AND THIS INCLUDES TODAY'S BETS!
💵🎰 - wt.buzz/tb
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Krka literally beat Cedevita Olimpija 71-67 on September 17, just nine days before this rematch. More importantly, that wasn't a fluky meaningless friendly—it was the Slovenian Super Cup. Cedevita coach Zvezdan Mitrović said afterward that Krka had been the better team.

Then the injury situation became even more important. Cedevita cancelled its scheduled preseason game against Trieste because the roster was so depleted. Jordan Gainey was ruled out for at least two weeks, while Brandon Murray, Matthew Hurt, David Škara and Osayi Osifo were also dealing with injuries. Mitrović described having six unavailable players and said the shortened roster was making normal practice extremely difficult..

Cedevita reacted by signing Rihards Lomažs, an excellent scorer who averaged 18.6 points and 4.1 assists in last season's EuroCup. That's meaningful, and it's why I don't make Krka something crazy like 70%+. But he joined only this week and has essentially no time to integrate before Saturday.

So the market is asking us to take:

Krka +11.5

against a team Krka just beat outright, with Cedevita still managing a major injury/chemistry problem.

My number is approximately:

Cedevita 78 – Krka 74

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I'm going right back to Romeo Doubs after the rough start to the season. He had the bad drops in Week 1, but responded in Week 2 with 90+ receiving yards on only three catches. That's exactly what I wanted to see after the opener, and the Patriots should have plenty of confidence continuing to involve him.

The volume hasn't been huge yet, with three targets in Week 1 and four in Week 2, but New England also didn't need to throw much last week. The Patriots won 20-3, and Drake Maye completed only 14 passes. Even in that low-volume passing environment, Doubs showed his ability to generate chunk plays and easily clear this number.

Jacksonville's defense points us toward attacking through the air. The Jaguars have allowed the 11th-most passing yards through two games while giving up 9.3 yards per completion. Meanwhile, opponents have rushed for only 191 total yards in two games. If New England is looking for the easier way to move the football, I expect Maye and the passing game to be much more involved.

That's important because we don't need massive volume from Doubs. His Week 2 performance showed that. At 43.5 yards, four or five quality targets could easily be enough, and his ability to make plays downfield means one big reception can do most of the work.

After the Week 1 mistakes, Doubs bounced back immediately and showed why New England brought him in. I expect the targets to continue trending upward, and this matchup gives the Patriots a reason to lean more heavily on Maye's arm.

Romeo Doubs OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards is the play.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

This is a very large number. While the Lions are off three straight high-scoring games, the opposite is true of Saskatchewan. The Riders managed only six points in their last game. The 19-6 loss marked their fifth straight game which finished with 58 or fewer points. None of their last 10 have finished with more than 62. The last eight head-to-head meetings have all finished with 60 or less. This season's two games finished with 57 and 46. Five of the Riders' six road games overall have stayed below the total. I think Friday's game has a good chance of doing the same.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

(337) San Diego State at (338) Toledo: Total

Total Over 51.5 (-110)

Toledo was held to 273 yards and 10 first downs in their season opener at Michigan St and they ran only 41 plays as a 10 pt Dog.

As a favorite, the L2W, the Rockets gained 569 yds & 536 Yds with 55 FD’s while playing up tempo (76 plays in each game).

The Toledo defense allowed Temple 425 and 48 points LW, including 261 (5.3#) rushing. That same Owls offense totaled only 369 as -14.5 pf HF vs Rhode Island.

The Rockets are 3-0 O/U with those games covering by 68.5 pts.

San Diego St beat Portland St 53-20 as a -38.5 pt HF and then lost 28-10 at UCLA and they only ran 53 and 546 plays in those two games.
Last week they trailed 19-0 at halftime with 163 yds and played fast in the 2H with 238 yds finishing with 77 plays.

The Aztecs' D allowed 417 yds vs. James Madison.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on FLA 1H.

The Rebels are the better team, and they have a better quarterback. If you go by power ratings they are better on a neutral, and still better on the road. Power ratings can't quantify the magnitude of a let down spot this is, off the emotionally draining win over Lane Kiffin and LSU. Playing the Gators in the Swamp isn't easy at the best of times, but this game will be tough for Ole MIss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

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Troy is the side I want in this matchup because the underlying numbers suggest the Trojans have been the more functional team through three games, especially when you compare the offenses. Troy arrives in Logan at 2-1 after beating Sam Houston State and Alabama State before a 27-17 loss at Missouri, while Utah State is 0-3 and was just shut out 33-0 by Utah. Troy is producing a 36.5% offensive success rate and 3.59 points per scoring opportunity, modest figures but still considerably more trustworthy than a Utah State offense sitting at a 34.2% success rate, 1.71 points per opportunity, and eight turnovers. The Aggies' passing game has been especially problematic, completing only 51.0% of its passes for 5.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns against eight interceptions, while generating a negative -0.07 PPA and just a 34.3% passing success rate. Utah State hasn't been able to compensate on the ground, either, producing only 3.0 yards per rush, a 33.3% rushing success rate, and -0.19 rushing PPA, with its rushing success rate ranking 132nd nationally in the attached data. Troy's passing game has generated 1.84 explosiveness, ranking 14th nationally, and 7.0 yards per attempt, and should exploit a subpar Utah State defense allowing a 41.4% passing success rate.

The more compelling mismatch, however, comes when Utah State has the football. Troy's defense has allowed only 34.2% rushing success, -0.11 rushing PPA and 2.01-line yards, with its 29.3% stuff rate ranking sixth nationally and line-yards figure ninth. That creates a serious problem for a Utah State offense already struggling to establish the run, and forcing the Aggies into more obvious passing situations exposes an offense that has thrown eight interceptions and surrendered 10 sacks. The contrast also shows up in possession efficiency: Troy is averaging 33:16 of possession compared with 24:50 for Utah State, and the Trojans are converting 40.6% of third downs versus 35.7% for the Aggies. Troy's defense has allowed opponents to convert just 32.0% on third down, whereas Utah State has surrendered a 47.1% conversion rate. That offense/defense profile gives Troy an opportunity to control both snap volume and field position, especially if its defensive front consistently puts Utah State behind schedule. Utah State's schedule has been much tougher—ranking 12th nationally—but a 0-3 team with only 0.4 deserved wins, a -7 turnover margin, and 1.71 points per scoring opportunity is hard to justify as a favorite. Troy has also dominated the series recently, winning the last two meetings, including a 23-14 victory in Logan.

Technician’s Corner

• Shutout-loss fade: Favorites of -13 or less coming off a shutout loss are just 46-82 ATS (35.9%) since 1999, meaning the opponent has covered 64.1% of the time. Utah State enters directly off its 33-0 loss to Utah;

• Short home-favorite fade: Home favorites of -16 or less coming off a game in which they scored fewer than 10 points are 276-377 ATS (42.3%) since 1997;

• Road team vs. shutout victim: Road teams with seven or fewer days of rest facing an opponent that was shut out in its previous game are 175-118 ATS (59.7%) since 1999, producing a strong +14.0% ROI;

• Small road underdogs: Road underdogs of less than +7 with three or fewer wins are 852-699 ATS (54.9%) since 2007. Troy fits the early-season profile at 2-1;

• Sun Belt underdogs: Sun Belt Conference underdogs in their first four games of the season are 233-188 ATS (55.3%) since 2009.

The strongest component is the cluster of systems fading a favorite immediately after being shut out.

The Trojans don't need an explosive offensive performance to cash this ticket; they need their defensive front to control early downs, their offense to win possession time, and their passing game to hit enough chunk plays against a Utah State defense vulnerable through the air. With Troy holding the stronger early-season profile in scoring, offensive efficiency, turnover avoidance, and third-down defense, take the Trojans as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 26.

Released/revised 20 hour(s) ago

PLAY: Steelers +3.5

The line opened at Cincinnati -1.5 and sits at -3.5.  Why? The Bengals left Houston with a nice win to destroy our only NFL loss last week in Texans -2.5, but even Joe Burrow called his own game “incredibly average”. He was sacked five times and hit five more, and Cincinnati won 20-6 because Houston could not finish a drive. That is a defensive performance, and it is also a result that does not travel.

Yes, Pittsburgh was awful and I'm not here to put lipstick on a pig. Aaron Rodgers went 23-of-39 for 187 yards with no touchdowns and a pick. The Steelers averaged 3.5 yards a play and converted just 2-of-12 on third down. New England won and covered easily.

One bad loss doesn't make a 3.5-point home dog in a divisional game. I almost always take the home dog in the AFC North matchups. This is no different.  These two split last season and the home team won both.

Give me the Steelers at home, give me the Steelers on the moneyline.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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Tulsa enters Fayetteville with a profile that looks considerably stronger than the market’s treatment of the Golden Hurricane as nearly a touchdown underdog. Tulsa is 3-0 and has outscored its opponents 89-27, including a 24-10 win over Oklahoma State and a 42-0 shutout last week, while Arkansas sits 1-2 and has been outscored 102-58. Tulsa's biggest matchup advantage is on the ground: the Golden Hurricane have rushed for 661 yards on 117 attempts, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and their advanced rushing success rate is 46.0% with an excellent 1.19 explosiveness figure. Arkansas, meanwhile, has managed only 226 rushing yards on 97 attempts, just 2.3 yards per carry—and its 36.4% rushing success rate ranks near the bottom nationally. That inability to run is particularly problematic against a Tulsa defense that has been much better than expected, allowing only 9.0 points and 4.6 yards per play per game. Tulsa's defense is allowing a 37.6% overall success rate, has forced six turnovers, and is giving up only 1.33 points per scoring opportunity, an elite early-season finishing-drives number. Its pass defense has also held opponents to 58.5% completions and 5.8 yards per attempt while generating 10 sacks, so Arkansas cannot simply abandon its struggling ground game and expect easy production through the air. Arkansas has allowed 10 sacks itself, while its passing attack is producing only 6.3 yards per attempt, giving Tulsa another way to keep the Razorbacks behind schedule.

The most important reason to take the points, however, is Arkansas' defense. The Razorbacks are allowing a 45.4% success rate and an alarming 5.61 points per scoring opportunity, while opponents have completed 67.1% of their passes for 8.6 yards per attempt. That is an inviting matchup for a Tulsa offense that doesn't need to become pass-heavy because its rushing attack has already generated 5.7 yards per carry and 0.30 rushing PPA. Arkansas' defensive problems also fit the larger preseason concern surrounding this roster: just three of the 16 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps on last year's poor defense returned, leaving first-year coach Ryan Silverfield and defensive coordinator Ron Roberts heavily dependent on transfers. Tulsa entered the season with far more continuity in several important areas, including the return of quarterback Baylor Hayes, five of the seven offensive linemen who made at least four starts in 2025, and six of the top eight defensive backs. Tulsa's use of the portal to add running backs DJ McKinney, Trequan Jones, Damari Alston and Seth Davis was impressive, and that group is already validating the preseason optimism. Last week alone, Davis ran for 90 yards on nine carries, Alston added 68, and McKinney 56 as Tulsa compiled 297 rushing yards.

Technician’s Corner

• 112-69 ATS (61.9%) - Play on road teams coming off back-to-back games allowing 17 points or fewer when facing an opponent coming off a 17+ point loss, since 2010;

• 75-47 ATS (61.5%) - A second low-scoring-defense system supports Tulsa when a road team has allowed 17 points or fewer in consecutive games, averages 17 or fewer points allowed, is getting +3.5 or more, and owns a winning percentage at least as good as its opponent;

• 640-498 ATS (56.2%) - Fade home teams averaging a first-half deficit of at least six points following a game that produced 60+ combined points;

• 658-524 ATS (55.7%) - Home teams being outscored by an average of 7+ points per game are a profitable fade following a game with 60+ combined points;

• 78-57 ATS (57.8%) - Another situational system fades teams that outrushed their opponent by 75+ yards and committed fewer than six penalties in the previous meeting when facing an opponent with fewer than four wins.

The strongest angles center on Tulsa's defense and Arkansas' poor early-season performance profile. Combined with Tulsa entering Fayetteville 3-0 and getting nearly a touchdown, the technical portfolio further supports Tulsa +6.5.

Special teams could also play an important role in Saturday’s contest as Tulsa possesses a legitimate field-position weapon in Trequan Jones. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 33.0 yards per kickoff return through three games, and Jones just produced a 98-yard kickoff-return touchdown against East Texas A&M, earning American Conference Special Teams Player of the Week honors. Arkansas has the better punt-return average at 14.0 yards compared with Tulsa's 5.0, so the overall special-teams matchup isn't entirely one-sided, but Tulsa clearly owns the more demonstrated big-play kickoff threat. Arkansas has played a much tougher schedule, which deserves weight, but asking a 1-2 team with a 45.4% defensive success rate, a struggling running game, and an almost entirely rebuilt defense to win by seven or more is a big ask. With Tulsa able to shorten the game on the ground, create pressure, and generate an explosive special-teams play, take the Golden Hurricane as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 26.

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

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California’s case against Clemson begins with a significant mismatch between the Tigers’ reputation and their actual 2026 offensive production. Clemson enters at 2-1, but its offense ranks just 134th in success rate (33.5%), 114th in explosiveness, and 123rd in yards per pass attempt (5.9), while generating only 0.02 passing PPA and a 31.9% passing success rate. The Tigers have also surrendered nine sacks, and first-time starter Tait Reynolds produced a respectable but hardly explosive 215 yards with one touchdown and one interception against North Carolina. Cal’s defense is particularly well-equipped to attack those weaknesses, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 51.9% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt, with an elite 31.1% passing success rate allowed and -0.09 passing PPA. Even more important for creating short fields, the Golden Bears already have five interceptions, including an FBS-leading five from safety Kingston Lopa. Clemson cannot simply pivot to the ground game, either, because its rushing offense has produced only a 37.4% success rate, 3.7 yards per carry and 2.62 line yards, ranking 120th or worse in several advanced rushing categories. The overall profile is striking: Clemson owns a -9.1% net success-rate differential, while its offense has generated only 376 rushing yards and 517 passing yards through three games.

Cal has shown considerably more offensive upside than Clemson has so far, especially through quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The Golden Bears are averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt with a 44.7% passing success rate, and Sagapolutele erupted for a career-best 413 yards and three touchdowns on 27-of-33 passing in the 49-7 win over Wagner. Cal finished with 626 total yards and did not punt, while Adam Mohammed contributed 91 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and a 65-yard touchdown reception, showing the multiple ways this offense can create explosives. The Bears returned 82.3% of their offensive production, including 97.9% of their passing yards. In contrast, Clemson returned only 21.7% of its offensive production. The situational setup adds another layer, as Clemson must make its first road trip of the season all the way to Berkeley for a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff, forcing a young quarterback to operate in an unfamiliar environment and body-clock situation. With Cal's more efficient passing matchup, disruptive secondary, greater offensive continuity, and favorable home/travel setup against a Clemson offense still trying to find itself, take the Golden Bears as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, September 25.

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

(307) Navy at (308) UAB: Spread

UAB +7.0 (-107)

UAB has a viable counter through the air vs Navy's run game. Navy’s first two opponents combined for 593 passing yards and seven touchdowns without throwing an interception, while UAB has converted 47.8% of its third downs. That gives us a path to longer possessions and enough scoring opportunities to keep this competitive. The concern is finishing only three of UAB’s first eight red-zone possessions ended in touchdowns. Still, we think the passing matchup and UAB’s ability to extend drives make the underdog more competitive than the market expects. 

Play: UAB +7 

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on DAL TT Over.

The Cowboys and the Ravens will play overseas in Brazil, and the bookmakers have set the total for this game north of 50. We expected the Cowboys to be better defensively heading into this season, but we have yet to see any evidence of that. The Ravens haven't looked all that dominant on defense either, getting lit up by Tyler Shough last week. Dallas averaged almost 30 points per game last year, and I think it's reasonable to expect them to score some points here in this International game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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UEFA NL - France at Turkey

Game Thoughts: It was a disappointing World Cup for Turkiye this summer as one of the two group favorites along with the USA expected to advance into the knockout stages but losses in their first two made their only win in the group finale against USA meaningless as they were eliminated. They'll look to recapture some of that solid form they had coming into the World Cup but it's unlikely they get any type of a positive result here against a strong France side that lost to eventual winners Spain in the semifinals of that WC. It's also a new era in France as far as managers go as Zinedine Zidane takes over the squad after Deschamps stepped down after 14 success years. Plenty of attacking talent for Les Bleus here with Dembele, Mbappe, and Olise and a strong midfield. Note that Mbappe did miss training on Tuesday with the flu and could start from the bench Friday but expecting France to get the 3 points here and the combined total over 2.5 goals.

The play is France WIN & Over 2.5 -115 (Note: This can be found at DK under the "Match Parlays" tab for this game.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

UEFA NL - Belgium at Italy

Game Thoughts: Italy embarks on another Nations League era having lost in the semifinals of the last edition and after a summer of turmoil amongst the federation with appointing a new manager they've named Roberto Mancini as manager and he previously had helped turn around the Azzurri and won the 2021 Euro's over England. His style of play does promote attacking football and high press tactics and we saw that with the previous edition of this team that scored goals. They get a familar foe in Belgium and one they've gone unbeaten against in their last 5 with 3 of them coming in this competition. Belgium will be without their first pick goalie as Courtois will sit out this competition but they did have a positive World Cup this summer scoring 14 goals and were the only team to score against Spain in a 2-1 late game loss in the quarterfinals.

The play is Over 2.5 -127

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

At Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Baltimore has won-and-covered each of the last two meetings, with the last one being a 28-25 road win in Dallas in September 2024. The Cowboys' last eight games have all gone over the closing total. Since the beginning of the 2024-25 season, the over is 14-5 in Baltimore's road games. On paper, this figures to be one of the best games of the Week 3 slate, but who knows what kind of conditions you're going to get in Brazil. Don't forget, Virginia and NC State were supposed to open the college football season in Rio but elected to move the game to Charlottesville after logistical issues in Brazil. This will be the NFL's first game at Maracana Stadium in Rio after a pair of games at Arena Corinthians in São Paulo each of the last two seasons. Packers-Eagles in 2024 and Chargers-Chiefs in 2025 were both Week 1 contests, so this is the first time the NFL has gone to South American in the middle of the season. Ravens' head coach Jesse Minter was the Chargers' defensive coordinator last year, so he has some experience with making this trek. Ravens' first-year offensive coordinator Declan Doyle was the talk of the town after Week 1, but he finds himself on the opposite end of that role after last week's loss to New Orleans. In a game where the Ravens were either tied or leading for 58:32 out of a possible 60 minutes, Derrick Henry only received 16 carries including just five after halftime. On a day when Baltimore was missing wide receivers Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane, Henry probably should have had a bigger role in the Ravens' offense. Given the trends between these two teams, we can only look toward the over. Temperatures aren't expected to get above 80-degrees on Sunday in Rio, but humidity will likely be an issue and we've already seen both defenses wear down in the second halves of games this season. In that Chiefs-Chargers game in São Paulo last season, we saw 23 points scored over the final 16 minutes. In that Eagles-Packers game from two years ago, we saw 57 points scored over the final three quarters. Neither defense may be able to withstand the tough conditions that this environment will bring. Play the Over

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

It’s not quite the sort of “Land of Dis-Enchantment” clashes as many of these all-New Mexico battles have been in recent years. Not with the Lobos now the best thing in Albuquerque aside from the green chile cheeseburgers at the Owl Café, or since portly head coach Jason Eck arrived from Idaho and began to entertain the masses with not only his quotes but an upgraded brand of UNM football that continues to overachieve and put a legit scare into Oklahoma last week at Norman. All of that this month minus dual-threat QB Jack Layne, whose preseason arm injury has merely given Eck the chance to rotate a better runner (sophomore Toa Fa'avae) and better passer (Oregon transfer Luke Moga) to effectively keep opposing defenses off balance. Lest we think it’s all on offense where the Lobos are making their mark, the defense is performing like it has been lifted from the well-guarded perimeter of the White Sands Missile Range while allowing only 9 points per game after stonewalling the Sooners’ ground game last weekend (only 69 rushing yards and 1.8 yards per carry allowed...imagine Barry Switzer's reaction?). Sooners’ QB John Mateer was goaded into throwing a couple of picks. Granted, the Aggies aren’t about the roll over at home for their uppity (so they think at NMSU) in-state rival, especially now that Tony Sanchez looks to have the best QB in Las Cruces since Diego Pavia as Furman transfer Trey Hedden hasn’t been afraid to push the ball downfield. Though his bravado did result in a couple of key interceptions in the recent loss at Hawaii, and the Aggies couldn’t keep pace in this rivalry matchup last September when Eck’s pressure defense harassed then-NMSU QB Logan Fife into nine sacks as the Lobos won in a 38-20 breeze at home. Have Sanchez and his team really closed the gap since? Since New Mexico head coach Jason Eck arrived from Idaho last season, the Lobos have recorded a sparkling 11-4 mark vs. the spread.
Play New Mexico

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The losing streak continues. Charlotte put up a good fight last week in rain-soaked Boone against App State, but the 49ers have now lost 12-straight games including one as a three-touchdown favorite against The Citadel in this year's opener. Charlotte has covered the number in back-to-back games as a big 'dog, but in our opinion, the situation played a heavy factor in each of those results. The first cover was against Ole Miss as a 44.5-point 'dog when the Rebels were clearly disinterested and ready to turn the page toward LSU. The second cover was last week's 26-21 loss to the Mountaineers in a game that was delayed by 3.5 hours and ended at 12:32am ET. Needless to say, we're not rushing to upgrade the 49ers' power rating any time soon. Louisiana has covered the number in each of its first three games this season. Last week's 21-14 final score against UAB was probably a little flattering for the Blazers after the Ragin' Cajuns out-gained UAB by 117 yards with a 21-11 edge in first downs. UAB's only touchdown through the first 51 minutes came off a fumble return in the end zone. We have this game lined closer to -14 with minimal home field advantage for the Niners. And like we mentioned, Charlotte essentially lost a full day of prep and recovery after playing a road game late into the night last week. Play Louisiana

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on CLE.

The Browns and the Panthers won last week, and both teams may have been a little fortunate. The Falcons turned the ball over five times, and they started their 3rd string QB before replacing him with their 4th stringer. The Browns came from behind to upset baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Deshaun Watson actually played well, throwing for 238 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-30 passing. Cleveland usually plays better at home than on the road, and the Panthers defense has really struggled against the run. This looks like a case of wrong team favored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on CAL.

Clemson hasn't played a road game West of the Mississippi River in decades, and when I asked Grok the last time the Tigers played on the road in the Pacific Time Zone, the answer was in 1966 in a 30-0 loss at USC. The struggles on West Coast schools traveling out East is well documented, but there is not as much data on East Coast schools going out West. Needless to say, this Clemson program is a dumpster fire at the moment. They got rolled over by LSU, then barely beat Georgia Southern as a huge favorite. Last week they were losing to North Carolina at home in the 4th quarter, and just as the Tar Heels were knocking on the door with first and goal that likely would have led to a TD putting the game out of reach, the game was delayed 2.5 hrs for lightning. Of course the Tar Heels imploded after the delay, and Clemson got a rather phony win, and an even more egregious cover. Cal has an elite QB, and this program is trending in the right direction. I can't imagine a clearer case of the wrong team favored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

PLAY: Iowa State +8.5.

We missed the opener by four points. Hence the free play, similar to Houston last Friday night. We got the win (cover) and I expect a similar result from the Cyclones at home on Saturday afternoon.

Who has Utah actually beaten? The Utes are 15th in the country, 3-0, and allowing 8.0 points a game, looks good on paper, but it against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State. Arkansas is 1-2 and got trucked 45-17 by Georgia two weeks after leaving Salt Lake. Utah State is 0-3 and lost 29-17 at home to Idaho State. Yet they have a top 15 ranking and a number north of a touchdown on the road in a conference opener.

Sure, Iowa State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 and sits 2-1, and the loss is 16-13 at Iowa, a team that we took the +14.5 against just two short weeks ago. Iowa State had them on the ropes the entire game. Defensively, The Cyclones are stopping people: a 32.4% opponent success rate, an 18.7% havoc rate and a 16.9% stuff rate. Aiden Flora carried 12 times for 194 yards and 2 scores against Bowling Green. Cornerback Jaheim Singletary was hospitalized after a collision in that game and released Saturday with his status still open, but Beni Ngoyi and Drew Surges could both be back on that defense.

Devon Dampier is 71.6% for 690 yards with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, second in the Big 12 in passing efficiency at 178.5.. Jaylen Raynor is at 55.8% and that has to get better. Neither one of these teams has beaten anybody yet... only one of them is being priced like it has.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Cincinnati – Pittsburgh UNDER (#463-464)

The Steelers are a ‘dead nuts’ Under team right now.  They’re playing at a slow pace with Aaron Rodgers burning clock between snaps.  The passing game has lacked any sort of explosiveness; a big part of the reason why Pittsburgh has scored a grand total of one touchdown in 25 drives through the first two games of the season.  Their offensive line isn’t protecting Rodgers or blowing open holes for the running backs.  Cincinnati, too, has been a ‘defensive mindset’ team through the first two weeks of the campaign; a revitalized unit that has legitimately been upgraded from recent seasons.  Expect time consuming drives, defense and field goals throughout.  Take the UNDER.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

We have a “live dog” on our hands in early action Saturday as Texas’ win over Ohio State has them overvalued in the betting market. The Longhorns played terrible for 3 quarters in that high stakes tilt, and whether it was Arch Manning missing wide open receivers, or receivers dropping passes in the end zone, lets just say that very few sharps have UT as their top ranked power rated team. Albeit against lower level competition, Tennessee is averaging 48 points per game and hasn’t scored less than 42 in any of their 3 contests. They’re averaging 7.4 yards per play and Freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon hasn’t thrown an interception yet. He was known for taking great care of the ball in high school and we’ll happily put the points in our pocket with the home dog in Knoxville. Take Tennessee.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ATS) | Good until +0.5.

Minnesota has showed great defense through two weeks, leading to it's 2-0 start to the season. Scoring just nine points last week is nothing too exciting though. Tampa might be 0-2 this season. But, it's probably the best winless team remaining. Mayfield is still a very solid QB and with weapons at all of the skill positions, I'm anticipating a stronger performance. At home and getting points in a big game, go with the Bucs.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

The Utes are a strong team and they're off to a hot start. However, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday. While the Cyclones have a lot of new faces this season, they're playing well so far. They're off a confidence-building blowout win over Bowling Green and are 2-1. The lone loss was by just three points, at Iowa. These teams met at Utah in 2024 and the Cyclones won by a field goal. Don't be surprised if this one is also closer than expected.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago