Free Sports Predictions SEP 11: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Seattle starter Bryan Woo projects to give up 2.1 runs with a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.  Athletics lineup has hit just .157 (14-89) with a weak .432 OPS against Woo in his career.  The Athletics will start Gage Jump. The lefty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Seattle’s favor, look for the Mariners to get a solid road win in this game on Saturday night.

Play MARINERS (-1.5 runline).

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Georgia Southern presents a compelling case because Clemson is being asked to score more than three touchdowns with an offense that has yet to prove it deserves that kind of market respect. The Tigers are coming off an ugly 51-10 loss to LSU, their most lopsided defeat of the Dabo Swinney era, and the problems that plagued last year's 7-6 team were again evident in the opener. Clemson entered 2026 replacing seven offensive starters, bringing in a new offensive coordinator and turning the offense over to Christopher Vizzina, who entered the season with only one career start. Chad Morris was brought back to revive an attack that had become increasingly stagnant, but expecting an immediate transformation was always optimistic given the personnel turnover and injuries that affected the offensive line and receiving corps last season. Clemson also lost three top-50 NFL draft picks from its defense and had to replace five of its top seven defensive linemen, creating far more uncertainty than we are used to seeing from this program. Swinney finally became more aggressive in the portal, but Clemson is still integrating a large collection of new pieces on both sides of the football. That makes a 20.5-point spread particularly demanding for a team that needs to win by at least three touchdowns to cover.

Georgia Southern, meanwhile, enters with confidence after a 31-0 season-opening victory over Charleston Southern, giving the Eagles both a 1-0 SU and ATS start. Clay Helton has produced four consecutive bowl appearances, and his offense has posted an average offensive SP+ ranking of 60th over the previous four seasons, providing a much more established offensive foundation than the point spread implies. Quarterback is the biggest variable, but veteran Max Johnson brings 6,356 career passing yards and 49 touchdowns, while Turner Helton and Weston Bryan give the Eagles additional options if necessary. The supporting cast underwent substantial turnover, yet receiver Josh Dallas and left tackle Caelan Williams return after previously demonstrating starting-caliber ability, while guard Mo Clipper Jr. adds 12 games of starting experience from Charlotte. Georgia Southern's biggest weakness last season was clearly its defense, which cratered to 130th in defensive SP+, but that unit is extremely young and now operates under new coordinator Mike Mutz after his dominant season at Stephen F. Austin. Ten incoming defensive transfers were added around a core that includes promising corner Jaquari Brown, giving the Eagles a realistic opportunity to be considerably better defensively. That improvement matters against a Clemson offense still searching for its identity, and Georgia Southern does not need to threaten an outright upset to cash this ticket—it simply needs to keep Clemson from creating separation.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides additional support for Georgia Southern, with several systems pointing toward fading Clemson as a large favorite following its ugly season-opening loss:

• 124-92 ATS (57.4%) - Play Against Week 2 home teams coming off a loss by 17+ points in which they scored 10 points or fewer. Clemson enters after its 51-10 loss to LSU;

• 88-72 ATS (55.0%) - Play Against favorites of -20 or greater coming off a loss by at least 14 points. Clemson is laying 20.5 immediately after losing by 41 points;

• 102-81 ATS (55.7%) - Large favorites have historically struggled after suffering an upset loss as a favorite of -14 or greater, with the opposition covering 55.7% of qualifying games since 2020.

• 222-182 ATS (55.0%) - Sun Belt underdogs in Weeks 1-4 have produced a profitable 222-182 ATS record since 2009; and

• 216-171 ATS (55.8%) - Play Against teams coming off a game in which they accumulated more than 400 punting yards while generating fewer than 15 first downs, another system designed to fade offenses coming off extremely inefficient performances when the qualifying parameters are met.

Clemson falls into multiple negative situations involving Week 2 home teams and large favorites coming off significant losses. With one current analytical projection making Clemson only a 15-point favorite, compared with the market's -20.5, there is also tangible evidence that this number may be inflated. Clemson should rebound and win at home, but laying more than three touchdowns with a rebuilding offense following a 41-point defeat is asking too much. Take Georgia Southern plus the inflated number as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 11.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Getting down on LSU laying the wood against La Tech early in the week #2 betting markets (Sunday night). I expect this number to climb throughout the week and will add some analysis on the position later in the week.....

UPDATE:
LSU as the large home favorite has climbed a bit touching (-35) at some shops Thursday night. When a team puts up more than 640 yards, while letting up less than 150 yards in total domination of a former national champion on national TV- Tends to get attention in the betting markets.

Interestingly, Louisiana Tech put up 80 points themselves against FCS opponent Northwestern State. However, this is a huge step up in class and hoping Lane Kiffin takes his foot off the gas pedal is a tough angle. For Saturday's free pick- Bet LSU.

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New York Yankees (ML) | Good until -194.

Pitching Matchup: Zach Thornton/Gerrit Cole (Action).

Zach Thornton starts for the Mets on Saturday. He's been solid this year but has been on the wrong end of a lot of games. That's been the moral of the story for NYM and I believe that the same will continue this weekend. The Yanks counter with Gerrit Cole. He's not quite back to his Cy Young lervel. But, he's also had a great year again. His ability to go deep into starts really helps. Go with the better team in the Yankees today.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on OSU.

Jim Harbaugh said about Ryan Day: "Some guys are born on third base, and they act like they hit a triple". Well while I believe that to be an accurate assessment of the character of Ryan Day, the fact is that he may have Steve Sarkisian's number. Sark is just 5-18 straight up against Top 10 ranked teams in his career. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryan Day get the better of him once again here on Saturday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-110)

How much is a quarterback announcement worth? In this market, apparently, a point and a half.

This game opened Jacksonville -7 and is sitting steady across the Vegas counters at -8.5 after Cleveland named Deshaun Watson its Week 1 starter over Shedeur Sanders. I know Watson has a lot to prove. Good news, he has some solid role players around him.  Quinshon Judkins leads the backfield, Jerry Jeudy remains the veteran presence at receiver. Insert rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion. If anyone can get this offense to produce, it’s Todd Monken.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Browns spent their offseason being criticized for trading away Myles Garrett and completely remodeling their defense. Insert Jared Verse, Mason Graham, Quincy Williams, and former Jaguars corner Tyson Campbell. This defense will keep them in games if the offense starts to sputter.

Liam Coen's team finished third in EPA per play on defense a year ago...  Jaguars closed out last season 8-0 both straight up and against the number. They will be trying to replicate that again this season.

Bottom line, we’re catching over a touchdown in a 40.5-point total game, in the Florida heat of the 1:00 window.

I expect the Jags to be in every teaser and the second most selected survivor pick. Buyer beware. Browns +8.5

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Washington - Philadelphia UNDER (#475-476)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Philly - Washington and Green Bay - Minnesota on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up of my Eagles - Commanders opinion.

It’s not hard to make a case for Week 1 divisional Unders — the offenses haven’t gotten enough work in August and the defenses have familiarity with what they’ll be facing on opening day.  Washington didn’t reach 300 yards of offense in either meeting against the Eagles last year.  Philly is in their first game running Sean Mannion’s offense with a downgraded receiving corps for Jalen Hurts to throw too.  Philly still has an elite defense under Vic Fangio and Washington went on a free agent spending spree, upgrading their defense on all three levels.  Expect field goals, not touchdowns in what has all the makings of a relatively low scoring affair.  Take the UNDER.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

The case for Kansas City starts with buying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home for a relatively inexpensive price in a divisional game, where the market is essentially treating these teams as equals. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 6-11 season, but its underlying profile was considerably better than that record suggests, particularly on defense, where the Chiefs allowed only 19.3 points per game and ranked sixth in scoring defense. The biggest problem was an offense that slipped to 21.3 points per game, but Kansas City made meaningful changes to address that exact weakness. Eric Bieniemy is back coordinating an offense that became too predictable last season, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III gives Mahomes the explosive running threat that was missing from a ground game that ranked only 25th in rushing offense. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards last season and forced 77 missed tackles during the regular season and playoffs, providing a major upgrade over a backfield that lacked big-play ability. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton give Kansas City speed and explosiveness on the perimeter, while Travis Kelce remains Mahomes' most trusted possession target. Most importantly, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice after recovering from his knee injury, a major development considering how much Kansas City's offensive ceiling changes with him behind center. The offensive line does have a legitimate concern at left tackle with Josh Simmons sidelined, but Reid has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to scheme around protection problems, and Mahomes' quick processing gives Kansas City a chance to neutralize some of Denver's pass-rush advantage.

Denver deserves respect after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season, but that performance also creates an elevated market perception that may be difficult to duplicate. The Broncos won 11 consecutive games at one point, yet their postseason run ended with only seven points in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix was injured, illustrating how quickly their offensive ceiling can fall when circumstances turn against them. Denver added Jaylen Waddle and should again possess one of the league's better defenses, but Kansas City still has the best quarterback in this matchup and now gets him back at Arrowhead in a primetime divisional opener. Kansas City's defense remains another major reason to lay the short number, as Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranked sixth in points allowed and added first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and highly regarded rookie corner Mansoor Delane to a group that already features Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' 2025 defense surrendered just 301.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, giving Kansas City a strong foundation while its revamped offense finds its footing.

The situational value is also appealing because Kansas City opened around -2.5 and remains available at that key number in parts of the market despite Denver receiving substantial betting support. Power-rating projections also support the favorite, with one current set of ratings making Kansas City roughly a five-point favorite rather than the -2.5 being offered. That creates value on a Chiefs team whose 2025 record obscures a defense that remained championship-caliber and an offense that has upgraded its backfield while getting Mahomes healthy again.

My technical database presents a consistent theme: the market has historically overvalued successful teams from the previous season when they return in Week 1 as road underdogs.

Technician’s Corner

• Kansas City is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in divisional games when neither team is favored by -5 or since November 2015;

• Week 1 home favorites are 71-44 ATS (61.7%) vs. opponents that finished above .500 the previous season. Kansas City qualifies as the home favorite against a Denver team coming off its 14-win season;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won 9+ games the previous season are just 44-71 ATS, meaning the play-against side has cashed 61.7% (71-44 ATS);

• The broader playoff version has also been profitable: Week 1 road underdogs coming off a playoff season are 25-44 ATS;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season are 47-64 ATS, producing a 57.7% play-against rate. Denver's 14 wins, compared with Kansas City's 6, put the Broncos squarely in that fade situation.

With Mahomes back, Walker adding a badly needed explosive rushing dimension, Bieniemy reshaping the offense, and Kansas City playing at Arrowhead in a divisional opener, take the Chiefs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, September 14.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Over.

Kalen Deboer has a new quarterback, and the jury is still out on Keelon Russell. Given Deboer's history with offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Fresno State, Washington and Alabama when it comes to developing quarterbacks, I think there is reason for optimism. They will be a double digit favorite at Kentucky, and sharps are backing the dog here. Will Stein has himself a talented quarterback with Kenny Minchey. This ain't your uncle's Kentucky Wildcats team, and I expect both these teams to score here. I got Alabama winning 28-24.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

(469) New Orleans Saints at (470) Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Over 6.5 (-114)

Why I like 6.5 receptions: St. Brown averaged 6.9 receptions and 10.1 targets per game in 2025, giving him a very strong volume floor.  Detroit is also expected to emphasize quick, accurate passing against New Orleans’ defensive scheme.

Play: OVER 6.5 Receptions

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Emeka Egbuka OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) — Buccaneers at Bengals

This looks like a great opportunity for Emeka Egbuka to establish himself as Tampa Bay's new No. 1 receiver. Mike Evans is gone, and Jalen McMillan has been limited in practice with a knee injury. That leaves Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Cade Otton and the running backs as the primary options for Baker Mayfield. Egbuka's toe injury from the preseason also appears to be behind him, as he's been a full participant in practice this week.

We saw Egbuka's ceiling immediately during his rookie season. He opened the year with receiving totals of 67, 29, 85, 101 and 163 yards before injuries started slowing him down. He ultimately finished his rookie season with 938 receiving yards, so this isn't a projection based purely on potential. We've already seen him produce at a high level in the NFL.

The matchup is another reason to like the Over. PFF enters the season with Cincinnati's secondary ranked 18th in the NFL. The Bengals were also the only defense in football to surrender more than 2,500 yards after the catch last season. That's particularly interesting with Egbuka because he doesn't necessarily need a bunch of deep completions to get beyond 52.5 yards. Get the football in his hands and let him work.

There's even a little additional uncertainty in Cincinnati's secondary, with cornerback DJ Turner II limited Thursday by a hamstring injury. Turner was one of Cincinnati's best coverage defenders last season, so that's worth monitoring heading into Sunday.

Egbuka is healthy, the target competition has opened up with Evans gone, and we're getting a very manageable number for a receiver who showed several times last season that he can put up huge yardage when healthy.

We only need 53 receiving yards from Tampa Bay's potential new No. 1 receiver.

Emeka Egbuka OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110) is the play.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

The underdog is barking in the Motor City on Sunday. Tyler Shough under center in Kellen Moore's offense is a recipe for success right out of the gate this season. Detroit is not necessarily a team I am looking to go against, however large defensive question marks with guys off major injuries is a reason for concern. This one just missed the client card for NFL week #1. For this week's free pick- Bet the Saints plus the points.

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The Cornhuskers got off to a slow start against Ohio last week. However, they woke up in the second half and pulled away for a 49-21 season-opening win. Nebraska's 248 rushing yards were its most since 2023. This week, the Huskers will face another MAC Conference opponent, an (arguably) even weaker one. Bowling Green just lost at home to an FCS program. Bowling Green coach Eddie George said this about his Falcons after the loss to Tarleton State: "This is a young football team ..." The overmatched and inexperienced Falcons are unlikely to be ready for what's in store for them in Lincoln. The Huskers should get off to a better start than they did last week and cruise to an even bigger victory.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on OKLA.

So I simply disagree with the notion that the line movement in this game makes Michigan the right side. Would you buy rotten meat at the grocery store if the sticker price was 75% OFF? There are those spinning a narrative about an overreaction. If you have been following my content you would have seen that I gave out Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoffs, and at the time I was looking at the schedule and assuming Oklahoma should win this game. Is Kyle Whittingham overreacting when he questions if the Wolverines $15 Million Dollar quarterback will be the starter moving forward? We have yet to see Bryce Underwood play well against a ranked team, and asking him to do so here seems so unrealistic to me.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

Manon Fiorot is a genuine force at flyweight. She is a powerful kickboxer with excellent distance management and looks just as comfortable working from range as she does when the fight turns into a brawl. Alexa Grasso is a former champion with a well-rounded game and sharp boxing. That pedigree matters. Even so Fiorot’s physicality stands out as one of the biggest edges in this matchup. For her frame she is a large flyweight and uses that size well. She will be the stronger fighter and that strength should show up in the clinch and also help stuff takedowns. If the fight hits the mat Grasso likely holds the grappling edge but I don't believe she'll find success getting her down. Fiorot should defend the entries and punish her with damaging shots on the way in. Grasso has shown she can trade even when she's giving up power and her toughness is real. Close output in a round would still leave Fiorot still landing the heavier and more impactful shots. Those moments can swing a judge if a round is tight, especially if Fiorot is walking Grasso down and controlling the pace. Alexa overall remains extremely durable. Across a long career she has been finished only once and that came by submission against Tatiana Suarez in 2018. She has never been knocked out and that history points to her lasting the distance here. Give me Manon Fiorot to control the striking and take a clear decision.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

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UTSA is the value side in this matchup because the Roadrunners enter 2026 with far more proven continuity in the areas that matter most, starting with quarterback Owen McCown and an offense that has been the program’s calling card under Jeff Traylor. McCown returns after an uneven 2025 season but demonstrated an extremely high ceiling, including a two-game stretch against Tulane and East Carolina in which he threw for 618 yards and nine touchdowns while producing a Total QBR above 95.0. UTSA also brings back explosive running back Will Henderson III, who averaged an exceptional 6.9 yards per carry last season, along with two of its top three receivers and three starting offensive linemen. Henderson immediately confirmed that big-play ability in the opener, breaking a 75-yard touchdown run as UTSA generated 525 yards in a 45-16 victory over UTRGV. McCown was exceptionally efficient in that game, completing 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, giving UTSA exactly the kind of quarterback stability I want in what should be a competitive road environment. The Roadrunners are projected 73rd nationally in SP+ with 7.5 average wins, compared with Texas State at 88th and 5.8 projected wins, giving UTSA the stronger overall preseason profile. Jeff Traylor also provides a significant stability advantage in a matchup between programs that know one another well, and UTSA has been remarkably consistent under him despite stepping up in competition after leaving Conference USA. The Roadrunners' defense remains the primary concern because only eight of the 22 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps last season return, but Traylor aggressively addressed those losses through the portal with experienced additions at every level.

Texas State possesses a dangerous quarterback of its own in Brad Jackson, but there are legitimate reasons to believe UTSA is better positioned to win the overall matchup. Jackson was outstanding last season, throwing for 3,224 yards and rushing for another 890 while posting the fourth-best Total QBR among Group of Six quarterbacks, and his chemistry with Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. gives the Bobcats explosive-play capability. That explosiveness has hurt UTSA badly in this rivalry, including multiple long touchdown connections in Texas State's 43-36 victory last season, so limiting Jackson's vertical passing game is clearly the Roadrunners' defensive priority. However, Texas State lost significant personnel along both lines, and while G.J. Kinne attacked those weaknesses through the portal, the Bobcats still must prove those rebuilt units can perform cohesively against quality competition. That concern surfaced immediately against Texas, where Texas State was overwhelmed 59-7, and Jackson was held to 150 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception. UTSA's offense presents a much more balanced challenge than the Bobcats faced in many of their favorable matchups last season because McCown can attack vertically while Henderson forces the defense to respect an explosive running game. The Roadrunners also have motivational value after losing two straight meetings in this rivalry following five consecutive victories to begin the series, including last year's seven-point loss in San Antonio.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides strong support for UTSA, with several profitable systems targeting small road underdogs, revenge situations, and opponents coming off ugly losses:

• 264-161 ATS (62.1%) - Underdogs of +6 or fewer seeking revenge for an upset loss from the previous season are 264-161 ATS since 1989. UTSA qualifies after losing outright as the favorite to Texas State last season;

• 36-17 ATS (67.9%) - The revenge angle becomes even stronger recently: non-conference underdogs seeking revenge for a loss from the previous season are 36-17 ATS since 2019, when the additional system parameters are satisfied;

• 196-139 ATS (58.5%) - Road teams facing an opponent coming off a loss by 46+ points have gone 196-139 ATS since 2001. Texas State enters this matchup after its 59-7 loss at Texas;

• 397-301 ATS (56.9%) - Home favorites coming off a game in which they scored fewer than 10 points are just 301-397 ATS since 2004, producing a profitable 56.9% Play Against situation;

• 124-92 ATS (57.4%) - Play Against Week 2 home teams coming off a loss by at least 17 points in which they scored 10 or fewer. That situation has produced a 124-92 ATS record for the opposition since 1999.

The database attacks Texas State from two angles: UTSA is in a profitable small-underdog revenge role, while the Bobcats fall into multiple negative systems after their 52-point loss to Texas. With the market essentially pricing this as a toss-up, I favor the team with the superior projected SP+ profile, greater offensive continuity, more proven head-coaching stability, and the better combination of quarterback and running-game experience. Take UTSA plus the point(s) as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This matchup features two rebuilding teams, but the market still asks Las Vegas to lay a full field goal even though the Dolphins can exploit several favorable matchups. Miami went 7-10 last season, four wins better than a 3-14 Las Vegas team with a disastrous -191-point differential. The Raiders finished last in offensive EPA, EPA per rush, and sack rate allowed, while their line ranked 32nd in yards before contact and adjusted line yards. Las Vegas responded with a new coaching staff and personnel changes, but major uncertainty remains under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Miami is also resetting under Jeff Hafley, yet Malik Willis presents a distinct challenge with his mobility and ability to create outside the play's structure. Willis generated 0.377 EPA per dropback in limited action last season, and his rushing threat should test a Raiders defense that must preserve gap integrity while containing De’Von Achane. After leading the NFL in yards per carry on runs of 10-plus yards last season, Achane remains Miami's most dangerous weapon and can flip field position with a single touch.

The matchup became even more favorable for Miami with Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener following a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas, taking the Raiders' most proven receiving weapon away from Cousins. Bowers has been dealing with knee issues since last season, when he played in twelve games (eight starts) before being placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks of the season. He totaled 64 catches for 680 yards and seven touchdowns and was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. The absence of Bowers becomes especially important because Las Vegas already entered the season with major questions at wide receiver, where Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor comprise an underwhelming group. The Raiders also have uncertainty in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty has been working his way back from an ankle injury suffered in August, further reducing the offensive advantages normally expected from a home favorite.

Miami's defense struggled last season, especially against the pass, but Hafley's defensive background and the organization's aggressive shift toward a younger roster offer reasons for optimism. The Dolphins upgraded at linebacker and in the secondary, with first-round corner Chris Johnson and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez adding much-needed athleticism. Las Vegas should benefit from Tyler Linderbaum at center, yet major concerns remain about an offensive line that allowed pressure at an alarming rate last season.

Miami also holds a schematic edge: Willis' mobility and Achane's explosiveness can challenge a Raiders defense that struggled against the run in the preseason. Las Vegas cannot overcommit to stopping the run without becoming vulnerable to Willis' scrambles and designed movement. Both teams entered the season with similar expectations—Miami's win total was 4.5 versus 5.5 for Las Vegas—suggesting little talent gap on a neutral field. Miami also has the stronger recent baseline, having won seven games last year to Las Vegas' three, while both teams install new systems and start new quarterbacks.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Miami in the short-road-underdog role. The Dolphins fall into a 62.5% ATS look-ahead system, a 66.7% ATS Week 1 road-underdog system, and a 59.0% ATS Week 1 system, while Las Vegas falls into multiple negative favorite situations.

• 825-494 ATS (62.5%) - Play On underdogs vs. teams that are +5 or greater underdogs in their next game. Las Vegas is currently projected around +9.5 at the Chargers next week, putting Miami into an exceptionally strong 62.5% league-wide situation;

• 273-195 ATS (58.3%) - Play Against favorites in Games 1-4 that failed to make the playoffs the previous season. The Raiders went just 3-14 last season;

• 310-233 ATS (57.1%) - Play On road underdogs of less than +9 with totals from 40 to 42.5;

• 50-25 ATS (66.7%) - Week 1 road underdogs of less than +7 that won two or fewer road games the previous season have covered two-thirds of qualifying games. Miami won only two road games last season;

• 43-22 ATS (66.2%) - Play Against the Raiders when favored by -3 or more. Las Vegas has historically struggled badly in this exact favorite role, covering only 33.8% of qualifying games since 2003;

• 249-200 ATS (55.5%) - Play Against non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less during Weeks 1-9.

With Bowers expected to be out, Jeanty coming off an ankle injury, lingering concerns along the Raiders' offensive line, and Miami possessing the two most dynamic rushing threats on the field in Willis and Achane, grab the generous points with the Dolphins as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(403) Arkansas at (404) Utah: Total

Total Under 55.5 (-118)

Utah’s home-field advantage is particularly important because Arkansas is traveling from the SEC into a very different environment

I’m expecting a more physical game than the market may anticipate. Arkansas should have trouble sustaining drives against Utah, while Utah doesn’t necessarily need to play extremely fast with a lead

Play: UNDER 55.5

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

I really like the Indianapolis Colts to cover against Baltimore on Sunday, and I think this is a great Week 1 spot to take the points. I actually think they have a real chance of winning this game outright.

First, home field matters here. Baltimore is coming into Indianapolis to open the season, and we're getting points with a Colts team that I believe is considerably better than the market is giving them credit for.

The Colts showed flashes last season, starting 8-2 before completely falling apart down the stretch and finishing 8-9. This is a team with something to prove, and the addition of Sauce Gardner gives Indianapolis a legitimate difference-maker in the secondary.

I also love the matchup from a physical standpoint. Baltimore is going to want to lean heavily on Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, but Indianapolis has the defensive tackles to make things difficult inside with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. And Baltimore enters the season with some questions on the offensive line — their Week 1 starting center, Jovaughn Gwyn, is making his first career start, with veteran Ethan Pocic still working his way back from an Achilles injury.

On the other side of the football, Alec Pierce is expected back for Indianapolis after ankle surgery. That's a big deal because Pierce is one of the NFL's premier deep threats and averaged 21.3 yards per reception last season. Getting that explosive element back gives the Colts another way to attack Baltimore's defense.

And don't forget — this is Jesse Minter's first game as Baltimore's head coach. There are going to be adjustments, new systems and new responsibilities on the Ravens' side of the ball. Baltimore is talented, but Week 1 on the road against a hungry Colts team is not an automatic win.

I don't need Indianapolis to win this game. I need them to stay within the number.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Alabama - Kentucky UNDER (#357-358)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my ‘free play’ recommendations for Alabama - Kentucky and BYU - Arizona on Saturday Afternoon.  Here’s a brief write-up for the WIldcats vs the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has plenty of talent on offense, but when it comes to returning production from last year, they’re ranked outside the Top 100.  It’s the same story with Kentucky in the first year of the Will Stein era; another team that has brand new personnel on the offensive side of the football.  These are two teams with first year starters at quarterback; a classic college football recipe for a relatively low scoring first ’test’ of the season as SEC play begins. ‘Bama has cashed at a 67% Under clip in SEC play in the Kalen Deboer era; 12-6 to the Under in 18 conference games), an under-the radar trend worth riding here.  Take the UNDER.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Houston (#464)

While the recreational bettors fall in love with their favorite quarterback when it comes to betting Week 1 of the NFL, experienced pros know that getting stops – the better defense – is every bit as important as having an elite QB.  The Texans defense is better than the Bills defense on all three levels; one of many ‘depth concerns’ issues that Buffalo has after signing Josh Allen to his fat long term contract.  I trust Houston to get a key fourth quarter stop far more than Buffalo -- so crucial in this pointspread range -- just like they did last year when they held Matthew Stafford and the Rams to 14 points in Week 1.  This time around, however, I expect the Texans revamped offensive line to hold up; a game I expect them to win.  That said, I’d rather take the point and a half here ‘just in case’ of a tight finish -- the moneyline payout simply isn’t worth it.  Take the Texans

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

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Jacksonville State +2.5 offers value in a matchup where the Gamecocks have more offensive continuity and a higher ceiling than the market gives them credit for. Charles Kelly’s team has already experienced both ends of the spectrum this season, rebounding from a difficult 33-7 road loss at North Dakota State with a dominant 49-7 victory over Eastern Kentucky. Through two games, Jacksonville State is averaging 28.0 points and 6.05 yards per play while completing 66% of its passes, compared with an Ohio offense that produced only 21 points, 303 total yards and 4.66 yards per play in its opener. Sophomore quarterback Caden Creel provides important continuity after producing 1,514 passing yards and 1,190 rushing yards last season, giving Jacksonville State a legitimate dual-threat weapon capable of stressing Ohio horizontally and vertically. Creel also has an intriguing mismatch target in 6-foot-8 Deondre Johnson, who averaged an explosive 24.1 yards per reception last season, while the receiving corps was reinforced through the portal. The offensive line also retains five of last season’s top eight linemen, an important advantage against an Ohio roster undergoing substantial turnover. Jacksonville State entered 2026 with far greater continuity than Ohio, which changed head coaches again and returned offensive players who combined for only 11 starts last season. Ohio’s quarterback situation was particularly unsettled entering the year, and that lack of continuity showed immediately when the Bobcats completed just 43.8% of their passes in a 49-21 loss at Nebraska.

Ohio has yet to demonstrate that it deserves to lay points against a Jacksonville State program that has won nine games in each of its first three FBS seasons and captured two straight Conference USA championships. The Gamecocks finished 2025 with nine one-score games, winning five, so Kelly’s roster is accustomed to playing deep into competitive fourth quarters. Defensively, Jacksonville State retains proven disruption at multiple levels, with safety Caleb Nix and corner Tre’Quon Fegans combining for five interceptions and 10 pass breakups last season, while the staff aggressively supplemented the unit through the portal. Ohio has more continuity defensively, but its secondary lost four of five starters, creating an area Jacksonville State can attack with Creel’s mobility and Johnson’s size. The Bobcats also surrendered 49 points, 523 total yards, and 7.1 yards per play against Nebraska, including 248 rushing yards at 5.9 per attempt, suggesting this defense is not yet in position to consistently control an opponent with a mobile quarterback. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, just held Eastern Kentucky to seven points, giving the Gamecocks a confidence-building defensive performance before returning to the road.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Jacksonville State in the short-underdog role, with several systems pointing to a game against Ohio following its 49-21 loss at Nebraska. Ohio is currently a 2.5-point home favorite, while Jacksonville State enters 1-1 after routing Eastern Kentucky 49-7.

• 197-115 ATS (63.1%) - Play Against qualifying home teams favored by 4.5 points or less coming off a road loss against a non-conference opponent. Ohio fits the core situation after losing at Nebraska and returning home as a small favorite against Conference USA member Jacksonville State;

• 805-622 ATS (56.4%) - Play On road teams against opponents favored by no more than four points when that opponent has a negative average first-half scoring margin and is coming off a game featuring 60+ combined points. Ohio's opener produced 70 points, and the Bobcats trailed Nebraska 28-21 at halftime;

• 653-517 ATS (55.8%) - Play Against qualifying home teams being outscored by an average of 7+ points per game after a contest producing 60+ combined points. Ohio enters with a -28-scoring margin after its 49-21 season-opening defeat

• 198-153 ATS (56.4%) - Non-conference underdogs of +4 or less playing with revenge have covered 56.4% of qualifying games since 2008

With the more established quarterback, greater offensive continuity, Ohio’s massive offseason transition, and a spread providing protection in what profiles as a close game, take the points with Jacksonville State as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

They’re getting a bit antsy in Cincinnati, where the Bengals haven’t made the playoffs since 2022 and a return to the Super Bowl for Joe Burrow, which once seemed inevitable after he reached the finale vs. the Rams in his second year in the league, is now starting to draw comparisons to Dan Marino, who never got back to the Super Bowl after also making it in his second year with the Dolphins. Of course, Burrow staying in one piece for an entire season would be a nice start after he’s missed large chunks in three of his six campaigns in the league, with last year’s eight games the fewest in his career. Indeed, Joe’s presence means almost everything to the Bengals, who were 1-8 without him a year ago, and why lingering questions along the OL, which has allowed Burrow to get sacked 213 times in his career (the fourth most in the league since 2020) and has the worst pass-block rate in the league across that span, remain an obvious red flag. For the moment, Burrow is upright, however, and Zac Taylor is looking forward to a rebuilt defensive line wreaking havoc with foes on the Bengals’ schedule now that wrecking machine DT Dexter Lawrence II has arrived from the Giants along with other disruptors on the defensive front. Yet keep in mind that Cincinnati has been a notorious slow starter in recent years, failing to cover in its last four openers. Injuries also figured in the Bucs' demise a year ago and failure to defend the NFC South crown they had won the previous four seasons, and Todd Bowles is crossing his fingers that some of the walking wounded from the summer like wideouts Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan (the presence of both more important now that Mike Evans has moved to the 49ers) will be ready to go for the opener. The clever Baker Mayfield also looks a proper elixir to Cincinnati’s supposedly juiced-up pass rush, and Bowles’ own new adds in the defensive front seven could expose the main Bengals question mark--protecting Burrow. Moreover, any points from the oddsmakers are always worth considering with the low-variance Bucs, after their last six games a season ago were all decided by four points or fewer. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Wisconsin +20.5 against Notre Dame was one of our favorite plays from last week, and if you would have showed us the box score for that game, we would probably be waiting for you in the cashier's line. Notre Dame only out-gained the Badgers by 66 yards and four first downs, but the Irish played mistake-free football and the Badgers did not. Wisconsin's two turnovers proved too much to overcome, and the Irish showed that teams will have to play a near-perfect game to beat Notre Dame in 2026. That's probably not something the Owls have up their sleeve, but similar to Wisconsin, Rice does possess the blueprint that could help the Owls stay within this lofty number. In the season-opening win over FCS-level Houston Christian, Rice threw a total of ten passes. The Owls ran for 465 yards while going 11-of-17 on third down. The strength of the Irish defense is in the secondary (DJ McKinney returned an interception for a touchdown last week against Wisconsin), but the Owls have very little interest in putting the ball in the air. Wisconsin had the formula to compete with Notre Dame (it was a 13-10 game at halftime), but the Badgers made the back-breaking mistakes in the second half. If Rice can play A LITTLE bit cleaner, the Owls can keep this clock running like a service academy contest.
Play Rice

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

I guess this line is telling us that Brandon Moreno is past his prime, because I don’t understand why he’s the underdog here. Joseph Morales is coming off winning The Ultimate Fighter and followed that up by beating a washed-up Matt Schnell, and now he’s favored over Moreno? I don’t see it.

Morales has shown a decent ground game and brings consistent forward pressure, but Moreno is still only 32 years old and has spent years fighting the best of the best. He still has a long jab, good movement and the ability to clinch and control opponents against the fence. Moreno needs to increase his volume a little bit, but if he does, I think his experience and overall skill set will be too much for Morales.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Kevin O’Connell didn’t waste any time naming Kyler Murray the starting quarterback, a good move if you know who your guy is so the team can develop chemistry without uncertainty. Murray has huge playmaking starters on offense, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison leading the way. The defense was great a season ago, finishing 3^rd in opponent yards per play and 7^th in points per game allowed. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves to blitz, and he’s done a tremendous job of finding ways to get to the opposing quarterback. The Packers are a team that’s due for regression, and they’ll be without running back Josh Jacobs do to his off the field troubles. Micah Parsons is also out for the first month of the season with a knee injury. Minnesota comes away a winner in this NFC North rivalry. Take the Vikings ML.

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Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

David Montgomery over 53.5 rushing yards

Buffalo allowed the 28th-most rushing yds/gm last season, giving Houston a favorable matchup on the ground. With the game total set at just 44.5 points, this projects as a low-scoring, run-heavy game. Houston also has reason to lean on its rushing attack. The Texans added to their O-line this offseason, while their WR room has undergone recent turnover. That combo should make establishing the run a logical priority, particularly against a vulnerable Buffalo rush defense.

We’ve also seen it before in this matchup. The Texans ran the ball 28 and 26 times versus the Bills in their last meetings, with 16 of those carries going to Woody Marks in 2025. Now that Houston has a legit RB1 in David Montgomery, look for him to take over those opportunities. Monty has averaged 4.1 yds/att over his career, so if he gets 15+ carries, that projects to 61.5 rushing yards in other words, he shouldn’t need an overly efficient day to cover this number.

The other factor working in Montgomery’s favor is his ability to create chunk plays. Monty had 15 explosive runs in 2025, meaning runs of 15+ yds. That’s one out of every 10.5 carries, so chances are we see at least one this week, and that dramatically changes the math. One explosive run, and a 15-carry workload with even modest efficiency puts him comfortably over this 53.5 line.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

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The case for New York starts with the fact that the Jets may be considerably better than their ugly 3-14 record from 2025 suggests, while Tennessee still has major structural problems to solve around Cam Ward. New York finished last season with an NFL-worst -203 point differential, but its defense experienced an almost unprecedented lack of turnover production, forcing just four takeaways and becoming the only NFL defense in modern history to go an entire season without an interception. That type of extreme turnover drought is highly unlikely to repeat, and the Jets aggressively addressed the problem by adding All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, veteran linebacker Demario Davis, defensive tackles David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat, plus No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, who recorded 14.5 sacks in his final college season. Bailey is especially important because New York finished 31st in sacks last season, and his explosive first step gives Aaron Glenn the type of edge presence his defense lacked. The offense should also have a much higher floor with Geno Smith replacing the failed Justin Fields experiment and veteran coordinator Frank Reich taking over the play-calling. Smith does not need to be a star in this matchup; he simply needs to distribute the football efficiently to Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. without putting the defense in bad positions. Smith as a stabilizing bridge and Reich as a steadier offensive hand, which is important after New York ranked 31st in EPA per pass last season. The Jets also strengthened an offensive line that PFF ranks substantially ahead of Tennessee's entering 2026, giving Smith a better chance to operate comfortably and allowing New York to lean on Hall and Braelon Allen against a Titans defense still undergoing a major transition.

Tennessee, meanwhile, was not merely unlucky in 2025—it was consistently overwhelmed, particularly early in games. The Titans posted an average scoring margin of -11.4 points per game, ranked 29th in first-half point differential at -106, and were -179 through three quarters, 30th in the NFL. Those numbers are particularly concerning against a Jets team that should be able to generate pressure and play from more favorable down-and-distance situations than it did last year. Ward finished his rookie season 31st in passer rating, 31st in completion percentage, 33rd in yards per attempt, and was sacked a league-high 55 times; the underlying problems included inaccurate throws, sacks, fumbles, drifting in the pocket, and a tendency to resort to hero ball when protection broke down. Tennessee attempted to protect Ward last year by investing heavily in the offensive line, but the unit still surrendered 56 sacks, the sixth-most in the league, and enters 2026 ranked near the bottom of PFF's offensive-line rankings. Brian Daboll should eventually improve the structure around Ward, and Robert Saleh should make the defense more respectable, but expecting all of those changes to immediately erase a massive talent and execution deficit is asking a lot. Tennessee was also one of the league's most undisciplined teams, accumulating 130 accepted penalties, ranking second in penalty frequency and posting the NFL's third-worst penalty margin, another major concern for a young team trying to operate efficiently. New York, by contrast, spent the offseason adding veteran stability, improving the offensive line, upgrading its pass rush and attacking the exact turnover weakness that made its 2025 defense look worse than it probably was. The Jets do not need Geno Smith to carry them here; a controlled offense built around Hall, complemented by a rejuvenated defense capable of pressuring Ward, provides a very favorable matchup against a Tennessee team that still has substantial weaknesses up front.

With New York possessing the stronger offensive line, a deeper collection of proven skill talent, significant defensive regression potential, and a favorable matchup against a quarterback who struggled badly under pressure, grab the point(s) with the Jets as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

2% Cam Ward Over 0.5 Interceptions (1:00 ET): This is a prop bet I talked about throughout the summer.

Last season, the Jets became the 1st team in NFL history NOT to record a single interception during the entire regular season. Call me "optimistic," but I think they'll record at least one in 2026. In fact, I think they'll intercept Titans' Cam Ward in Week 1.

Ward only threw seven interceptions all of last year, his rookie season. Considering he had the 8th most passing attempts in the league, that INT number actually wasn't bad. But I think, in his second season, the Titans' offense figures to be a bit more aggressive and there's a likelihood more mistakes will be made.

End of the day, positive turnover regression is coming for the J-E-T-S. The defense did record three interceptions in the preseason. With WR Carnell Tate being the Titans' top draft choice, Ward is going to air it out more this season. I see him tossing it to the guys wearing green at least once in this game. 2% Cam Ward Over 0.5 Interceptions (Play to -120)

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

Indianapolis Colts (ATS) | Good until +1.5.

Baltimore got rid of HC John Harbaugh & brought in Jesse Minter for the new season. The change was questioned around the league as one would have thought that Harbaugh had accomplished enough to be able to leave on his own. But, that wasn't the case and with a completely new coaching staff, I think that the Ravens could take a minute to get everything clicking perfectly. Before he got hurt, Indianapolis was very dangerous when Daniel Jones was playing last year. Alec Pierce has also gotten the green light for the opener. Against a mediocre defense from last year, getting a field goal here at home is a gift. Go with the Colts.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago