Free Sports Predictions AUG 29: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

(925) Los Angeles Dodgers at (926) Detroit Tigers: Total

First Inning Under 0.5 (-140) Blake Snell (LHP), Keider Montero (RHP) Must Start

Snell allowed a first inning run in his first start but is 3-0 NRFI since, with a 2.57 ERA

Montero is 18-3 NRFI with a 3.30 ERA

LA has not scored in the first in 4 straight and once in their L10 road games

Detroit is 3-0 NRFI and has not scored a run in the first in 4 straight

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(913) Boston Red Sox at (914) New York Yankees: Total

3% First Inning Under 0.5 (-115) Jake Bennett (LHP), Carlos Rodon (LHP) Must Start

Bennett is 14-1 NRFI with a 3.49 ERA

Rodon is 5-0 & 8-3 NRFI with a 3.15 ERA

Boston is 3-1 NRFI and has not scored a first inning run in 7 straight games overall and 7 straight road games.

NY is 4-1 NRFI, and they have scored a first inning run only ONCE in their L27 games

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^{(309) Sacramento St at (310) Eastern Michigan: Total}

^{Play Rating: FREE}

^{Play Type: Full Game Total}

^{Play: Total Over 53.5 (-112)}

^{Date/Time: Aug 29 2026 6:30 PM} 

^{Line Provider: Consensus Line}

^{Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan}

Sacramento State new HC Alonzo Carter worked under Arizona & San Jose State HC Brett Brennan the L9Y

Changing Sacramento State to more of a run/pass mix rather than the extreme tempo run oriented system used here by the previous coaching staff

OC Eric Kiseau in his first season here was OC at Boise State & Auburn from 2019-’22 and was Offensive Quality coach at Florida L3Y

Sacramento State only  2 starters returning & QB Cary Conklin comes back to Sac State after leaving last season for Fresno State

HC Carter says his Offensive Line looks like an FBS O-Line and will surprise but it’s comprised of one FBS transfer, an FCS Starter (Incarnate Word) & part timer + 4 JUCO’s

Getting the OL to mesh together immediately is tough but they do have a significant size advantage in this matchup

Three time zone travel for Sacramento State which is new to them but 6:30 eastern start (3:30 pacific) isn’t that bad

Eastern Michigan has 12 starters back (6 Off/6 Def) + QB Noah Kim who led MAC in passing last season

Plenty of cohesion on each side of the ball for EMU and the

Offense with returning QB Noah Kim at the helm figures to feature run/pass dynamic balance that can strike on all levels

Defense doesn’t have much tape if any on the new Sacramento State system which could be problematic at times during this contest

Eagles upgraded offensive capabilities combined with current total that represents prior perception signals some value here

Matchup has indicators pointing toward this scoreboard final elevating to 54+

PLAY: Sacramento State-Eastern Michigan OVER 53.5

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Tokyo Brandon is +134.43 units in 2026  
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Phillies 1st 5 moneyline is more from a safety standpoint than Phillies F5 -0.5, because this matchup has a realistic chance of being low scoring. The ML gives you the valuable tie = push protection.

Phillies F5 Moneyline — Pros

1. Cristopher Sánchez is the clear starting-pitching advantage. MLB currently lists Sánchez at 16-4, 2.62 ERA, 194 K against Ryan Johnson at 3-7, 5.75 ERA, 50 K. For an F5 wager, that enormous starter gap is the central argument.

2. Sánchez has been terrific in August. In five August starts:

He allowed 0, 2, 0, 1 and 4 earned runs in those five starts.

That gives Philadelphia a very good chance of keeping the Angels around 0–1 runs through five.

3. The Angels have a particularly useful weakness against LHP. Los Angeles hitters have struck out in about 30% of their plate appearances against left-handed pitching, fifth-highest in MLB according to the current Inside Edge data. Sánchez is exactly the sort of high-strikeout lefty who can exploit that.

4. Philadelphia has the offensive advantage. Current season numbers show:

So you're pairing the better F5 starter with the better offense, rather than relying only on Sánchez.

5. The ML is especially attractive because this looks like a lower-scoring F5. The current F5 total is around 4.5, with the Under priced around -118 at one source.

That's important.

In a low-scoring five-inning environment, scores such as:

0-0
1-1
2-2

become more likely.

With PHI F5 -0.5, every one is a loss.

With PHI F5 ML, every one is a push.

That's a meaningful advantage in this particular matchup.

6. You completely remove the bullpen from the handicap. I want this bet primarily because of Sánchez vs. Johnson. F5 allows us to concentrate the wager on exactly that advantage instead of paying for what happens innings 6-9.

One legitimate concern: Ryan Johnson's last start

Don't ignore this.

Johnson just threw:

7 IP
1 H
0 R
2 BB
3 K

against Texas. It was easily one of his strongest performances.

So his 5.75 ERA probably overstates how bad he is right now.

And Sánchez wasn't perfect last time either, allowing four runs against St. Louis.

How I see the first five

My most likely scoring range is roughly:

PHI: 2–3
LAA: 0–1

And the distribution is exactly why I prefer F5 ML over laying -0.5 if the price difference isn't excessive.

My ranking

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Atlanta starter Martin Perez projects to give up 2.0 runs with a 3.09 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  Colorado’s lineup has hit just .212 (7-33) with a weak .535 OPS against Perez in his career.  The Rockies will start Ryan Feltner.  The righty projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.94 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Atlanta’s favor, look for the Braves to get a solid home win in this game on Saturday night.

Play BRAVES (-1.5 runline).

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Both these starters are in excellent form. Alcantara delivered another gem last time out. In seven innings, he allowed one run and struck out six. Alcantara has now gone at least six complete innings in 10 straight starts, seven or more innings in eight of those. He allowed three runs or less in nine of those 10 starts, including each of the past six. He has a sparkling 1.13 ERA in those six games. Cavalli has been every bit as good, if not better. Off three straight gems, he's now 6-1 with a 1.84 ERA his past seven starts. Each of his past nine starts has been quality. Early runs should be few and far between.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Los Angeles Dodgers (ML) || Good until -192.

Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell/Keider Montero (Action).

The Dodgers hitting really struggled against the Braves and that continued in yesterday's game against the Tigers. Tonight, I think that they will bounce out of this slump. Blake Snell returns to the mound where he's allowed just two runs in 18 innings (1.00 ERA) in August. Keider Montero goes for the Tigers. He's been slightly worse in home games this season and allowed five runs versus the Dodgers in his only ever start versus them (back in 2024). Go with the Dodgers.

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EPL - Nottingham Forest at Liverpool

Game Thoughts: Forest didn't look good on opening weekend or in midweek losing at home in both and both to Leeds United in the season opener and EFL Cup game. They now have to pull it together and make the tough trek to Anfield to face Liverpool but could be bouyed by the fact they've won their last two visits here including a 3-0 win last November. That was during the Arne Slott area and he's gone as manager of Liverpool now and the Reds did look more like their former selves in their opener at St. James Park against Newcastle and that's always a tough out for visitors. They created 2.98 xG which is one of their higher numbers in quite some time. They should get their first win on Saturday with new manager Iraola and extend a good run of opening fixtures at home. They've won 12 of their last 13 to go with 1 draw.

The play is Liverpool -1.0 -120

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The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

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This is a free play on Hawaii.

Timmy Chang has completely turned around Hawaii's football program, and last year they won nine games for the first time in a long time. They come into 2026 with one of the top quarterbacks in the conference (Micah Alejado), and they are projected to compete for the Mountain West Championship. Stanford has a first time head coach, and a transfer quarterback (Davis Warren). It may take a while for the Stanford offense to start clicking, and I am expecting them to tread water in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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This is a free play on Under.

The Tar Heels defense showed promise at the tail end of last season, and despite all his shortcomings I still have faith in Belichick to recruit and develop defensive talent. The Horned Frogs are breaking in a new quarterback and offensive coordinator, so a slow start might not be a surprise. The weather in Ireland might also be a factor, so it might be tough for either team to pile on the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

North Carolina +9.5

SP+ treats the two defenses as essentially interchangeable, TCU 37th and Carolina 36th, and gives Carolina the special teams edge, 32nd against TCU's 87th. Every bit of the projected gap is offense: TCU 30th, Carolina 79th. That gap rests on two projections pulling in opposite directions. Carolina's offense finished 124th last season and is being marked up 45 spots, while TCU's is held basically in place, 31st to 30th, after losing a three year starter Josh Hoover to Indiana. He threw for over 3,000 yards with the Horned Frogs. His replacement is Jaden Craig, a Harvard transfer who has never taken an FBS snap, working under a new offensive coordinator.

For the Tar Heels, Billy Edwards Jr. was named the starter days before kickoff out of a competition Bill Belichick described as having "no leader in the clubhouse,”. However Bobby Petrino is now the OC in Chapel Hill.

DC Steve Belichick is on indefinite medical leave and is not traveling with no interim named, and the general manager is on administrative leave. Both teams are unknowable. The market is pricing only one of them that way, and it is doing that because the public remembers TCU 48-14 last season.

Some venue history: Unders are 4-1 at Aviva Stadium, favorites are 1-3-1 against the number, underdogs have won outright in three of the last four, and the last three games in Dublin all landed on exactly 45 points. There are books at 8.5, so check the Oddslogic screen and shop it. But the cleaner expression is the moneyline. Carolina is +255 and my number says fair is closer to +200. That is a value I look for each and every week in college football.  You are laying a premium, on a neutral field, internationally with an unproven Quarterback if you are betting TCU.

North Carolina +9.5

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USC enters Saturday’s opener with a massive advantage in overall talent, depth and returning quarterback production, making the Trojans an attractive play even as a substantial favorite. Quarterback Jayden Maiava returns after throwing for a Big Ten-best 3,711 yards in 2025, and USC finished fifth nationally at 296 passing yards per game while averaging 35.8 points. Lincoln Riley’s offense should have an excellent matchup against a San Jose State defense that surrendered 32.5 points per game last season and ranked 115th nationally against the pass at 245.3 yards allowed per game. The Spartans were particularly vulnerable to explosive passing attacks, allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, while USC generated an outstanding 9.2 yards per pass last season.

San Jose State enters 2026 in major transition after a 3-9 season. Third-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo is essentially overseeing a full reset, with the Spartans ranking 137th in returning production and sitting in the bottom third of VSIN’s Stability Score. That lack of continuity is a serious concern against a USC team that can build an immediate multi-score lead. Offensively, San Jose State averaged only 21.4 points per game last season, ranked 111th nationally in rushing, and committed 27 turnovers. USC also added veteran defensive coordinator Gary Patterson, who inherits a deep linebacker group that should allow him to attack an offense likely to become one-dimensional. If the Spartans cannot establish the run, their quarterback could be forced into obvious passing downs against a defense built to create pressure and negative plays.

USC has also dominated this series historically, winning all six meetings by double digits, including a 56-28 win under Riley in 2023. Riley has consistently overwhelmed this level of competition, with USC scoring 73, 48, 56 and 66 points in its recent games against its first non-Power Conference opponent of the season. Since 2013, college football favorites of -36 or more are 23-0 SU and 18-5 ATS (78.3%) in the opening weeks of the season. Even better, large favorites of greater than -37 are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, winning by an average of 49.5 points and covering the spread by an average of 8.7 points per game. Over the last four seasons, college football teams with seventeen or more returning starters are 107-89 SU and 108-86 ATS (55.7%) in the first four weeks of the regular season versus opponents returning fewer starters.

With USC owning substantial advantages in quarterback play, offensive explosiveness, defensive personnel and overall depth, the Trojans have the profile to seize control early and turn this into a one-sided season opener. Lay the points with USC as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 29.

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Yan Xiaonan opened as a -185 favorite at some books. Since then the market has drifted toward Denise Gomes and I disagree with that move. Yan is now priced at a real discount providing value at this number. Yan is a well-rounded fighter with sharp striking and a large amount of high level UFC experience. She has four losses inside the promotion but two of those came against former champions. The other two came against fighters who sat in the top five of the division at the time. She also owns a win over current champion Mackenzie Dern which is a nice feather in her cap. That result still carries weight. While Gomes is a rising prospect with real power in her hands. Her style is aggressive forward pressure crashing the pocket willing to stand toe to toe and throw heavy hooks. At 26 years old she should keep improving from fight to fight and has already added more wrestling to her game. Tape on both fighters makes the skill gap obvious. Yan is clearly the better overall fighter. More polished striking, better set ups to her combinations and more technical. Gomes can be a dangerous hammer, but she is far less comfortable when she becomes the nail. Denise wants to dictate the pace and the pressure and does not like fighting off the back foot. Many of her strikes are big looping hooks while Yan’s cleaner combinations and higher level striking should stand out against that approach. If Gomes cannot match Yan’s pace she will look for takedowns. Although Yan can be vulnerable to wrestling, the opponents who had success in that area brought a much higher wrestling level than Gomes possesses. Virna Jandiroba is a highly credentialed wrestler landing 3 takedowns with 10 minutes of control time. Former champion Weili Zhang landed 6 takedowns and held her down for 13 minutes. Former champion Carla Esparza landed 3 takedowns and controlled the fight for 8 minutes. Gomes is not close to those fighters in overall skill or wrestling. Yan should sprawl and brawl her way to a win. She will push a higher volume of strikes while staying defensively sound. She should out land Gomes on the feet and stuff the takedown attempts that come. This is also a large jump up in competition for Gomes as well. At -140 there is still plenty of value on Yan.

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(307) New Mexico State at (308) Florida State: Total

Total Over 52.5 (-112)

WEEK 0

New Mexico State @ Florida State

OVER 52.5

Florida State needs a strong start and big year for coach Mike Norvell as he sits squarely on the HOT SEAT.

Florida state showed the ability to put up points last season vs weak competition

77 vs East Texas A&M and 66 vs Kent State. Starter Ashton Daniels and back up Malachi Marshall should have the Noles offense moving up and down the field all night long.

Total was sitting at 53 the last few days and has ticked up. Grab it now.

Prediction: FSU 42 New Mexico State 14

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Hawaii enters Saturday’s matchup with the continuity and experience advantages I want when backing a road underdog in a season opener. Timmy Chang is entering his fifth season, and the attached material notes that his slow rebuild took a significant step forward in 2025, improving from 5-7 to 9-4 with a bowl victory while climbing from 107th to 94th in SP+ and 68th overall. The Warriors are projected 84th in SP+ for 2026 with 7.3 average wins, giving them a solid statistical foundation entering the season. Hawaii also brings back quarterback Micah Alejado, who developed into a productive starter last season, along with running back Pofele Ashlock, giving Chang proven pieces in his offense. The offensive line returns three big, experienced seniors, another important advantage in an opener where continuity up front can determine whether an offense stays on schedule. The Warriors also return productive defensive pieces, including linebacker Jamih Otis, who is one of the Mountain West's better tacklers. Stanford, meanwhile, is essentially beginning another rebuild under new head coach Tavita Pritchard, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a new starting quarterback in Michigan transfer Davis Warren. That amount of change creates legitimate execution concerns in Week 0, particularly against an experienced Hawaii team that already knows exactly what it wants to do schematically.

Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, college football teams with new defensive coordinators are 163-195 ATS (45.5%) in the first four weeks of the season versus opponents with returning defensive coordinators. Moreover, Power 4 home favorites of -30 or fewer are 17-29 ATS (37%) versus Group of 5 teams in Weeks 0 and 1 over the last three seasons. Hawaii also has a psychological edge after beating Stanford 23-20 last season, despite giving the Cardinal 10 early points and allowing Stanford to control possession for more than 36 minutes. Chang specifically emphasized avoiding another slow start, and the Warriors have even practiced on grass to prepare for Stanford's playing surface, showing attention to detail on this road assignment. With greater coaching continuity, an established quarterback, an experienced offensive foundation, and a Stanford program adjusting to wholesale changes, take the points with Hawaii as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, August 29.

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Lincoln Riley and the Trojans still have a lot to learn about traveling in the Big Ten (1-5 ATS away from home last year), but it appears that USC did make one notable adjustment in 2025 while playing in its new environment. Recognizing that the college football season has transformed from a 12-game sprint to a potential 16-game marathon if you make a deep playoff run, several of the country's top teams have turned the tempo down a notch. Ohio State and Notre Dame were at the forefront of the "slow it down" movement, and Riley joined them last season. The Trojans' offense went from averaging 70.2 plays per game in 2024 to 66.0 plays per game last year. In 2024, USC averaged 25.9 seconds in between plays. Last year, the Trojans took an average of 27.3 seconds between plays. USC is expected to bring back 15 starters from last year's squad including QB Jayden Maiava, but some analysts are glossing over the handful of losses a little too quickly in our opinion. Makai Lemon caught 79 passes for 1,156 yards with 13 touchdowns last season and was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft by the Eagles. If you've been following NFL training camps and preseason games, you already know that Ja'Kobi Lane (49 catches with four touchdowns at USC last year) has been turning plenty of heads with the Ravens over the last month. Maiava is a very talented quarterback and appears to be a great fit in Riley's system, but the Trojans still need to replace a pair of bonafide NFL receivers. On the San Jose State side, Ken Niumatalolo has his work cut out for him. The Spartans are only expected to return 24-percent of their production from last year, including just two projected starters. Former QB Walker Eget has left for Duke and Hawaiian transfer Luke Weaver will get the nod for the opener against the Trojans. USC opened last season with a pair of gaudy wins over Missouri State and Georgia Southern, but in the end, what did that get the Trojans? They went 3-8 against the spread after those two wins. Riley recognizes that he has a playoff-caliber roster, but in order to survive the grind of the Big Ten schedule, he probably needs to apply some brakes in these early-season contests. San Jose State held Texas to 38 points in Week 2 last season as a 36.5-point underdog. Many of the players that were involved in that game are no longer with the Spartans' program, but Niumatalolo and his coaching staff showed that they can make life a little difficult for a superior program. The Longhorns only had 18 first downs in that contest and time of possession was almost dead-even. San Jose State turned the ball over four times in that contest. If Weaver can protect the ball and not gift the Trojans some easy points, we believe this final score will stay under the lofty total.

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