Free Sports Predictions AUG 6: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

If you want a longer shot further down the board to win the SEC, Oklahoma stands out.

With a healthy Jackson Arvidson, John Mateer and 16 returning starters, they'll be a prime contender in this conference. The schedule at first glance looks tough, with road games at Michigan, Georgia in September. But they get the Red River versus Texas coming off the bye week and middle of the pack SEC from there on out. I’ve always been told it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish in the SEC… Oklahoma very well could be playing in the championship game in Atlanta in December.

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KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE: The OVER is 13-0 in the regular season since 2024 when Suarez starts against teams averaging at least 1.25 home runs per game, if it's at least the 65th game of the season. These games went OVER by an average of 2.9 runs!

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE: Play OVER in August when an opponent scored in more than 4 innings in the starter's last start and that game was tied at least 6 times. Applies to Chicago. 15-2 (88.2%) since 2024, going OVER by an average of 4.2 runs!

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Wilyer Abreu Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 2.5 (117) Away Listed Pitcher Must Start

Wilyer Abreu Performance Analysis:

• Historic Offensive Explosion: Abreu enters this matchup in the best form of his season. He has hit safely in 6 of his last 7 (85.7%) games, but his recent 3-game stretch has been on fire. In that span, he has recorded 6 hits, 8 runs, 4 home runs, and 4 RBIs, demonstrating an elite ability to drive the ball and produce runs at a high volume.

• Ideal Lineup Positioning: Batting third in the order provides Abreu with maximum opportunities for production. With another red-hot hitter in Rafaela batting ahead of him, Abreu is consistently seeing pitches with runners on base, which should allow him to capitalize on his current power surge and cash his offensive totals early in the game.

White Sox Pitching Analysis (Castillo):

• Struggling Rotation Addition: Castillo joins the White Sox rotation after a difficult stretch of the season. Through 17 starts, he carries a bloated 5.06 ERA and a 1.385 WHIP, indicating a persistent struggle to limit baserunners and prevent scoring. Those inflated numbers are even worst as Seattle's T-Mobile is a top 3 pitchers ball park!

• Recent Performance Regression: Castillo’s form has worsened significantly over his last 3 starts. During that span, he has tossed 17 innings while surrendering 12 runs and a massive 29 hits and walks.

• Extreme Vulnerability to Traffic: His recent 6.35 ERA and 1.706 WHIP suggest he is allowing nearly two baserunners per inning. Facing a hitter like Abreu, who is currently slugging at an elite level, presents a dangerous matchup for a pitcher struggling to find the strike zone and limit hard contact.

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970 NY Mets at Cleveland

Big fans of both these starters on the hill today. McLean has been tremendous on the road all season, and Griffin was a huge pickup for a team fighting for the playoffs. The Mets are just 3-8 on the road vs lefties, and after dropping the first two games of this series we expect to get the best pitching performance of the series for the host.

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Monique Billings OVER 8.5 Points

Monique Billings has quietly become a key contributor to Indiana's offense, and this point total hasn't caught up to her recent production. Over her last four games, she's averaging 13.0 points per game, comfortably clearing this number while playing with confidence on the offensive end.

Her scoring has come in multiple ways, making this a sustainable trend. Billings is averaging four made field goals per game during that stretch while consistently attacking the basket and drawing contact. She's also been getting to the free throw line at a high rate, knocking down 16 free throws over her last four games, giving her a reliable source of easy points.

She also has recent success in this matchup, scoring 10 points against the Aces in the previous meeting. While Kelsey Mitchell and Sophie Cunningham carried much of the offensive load in that game, that could actually benefit Billings tonight. Las Vegas is likely to put extra defensive attention on Indiana's primary scorers, creating more opportunities for complementary players like Billings to find open looks and attack mismatches.

With her recent scoring surge, increased aggressiveness getting to the free throw line, and a matchup that could shift defensive attention toward Indiana's stars, Monique Billings Over 8.5 Points is the play.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

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The Aces have all the ingredients for a statement win Thursday as they look to avoid being swept in the regular-season series by Indiana. Las Vegas has already dropped two close games to the Fever this season, and that familiarity should help the coaching staff make the necessary defensive adjustments. Even with those losses, the Aces have won nine of their last 13 games and continue to look like one of the league's most dangerous teams when A'ja Wilson and Jackie Young are playing at a high level. Wilson remains nearly impossible to defend after posting 36 points and 12 rebounds in her last outing, while Young is coming off a dominant triple-double against Atlanta, finishing with 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists. Las Vegas ranks 1st in FG% (49.3) and 3rd in 3PT% (35.7), while the Fever’s defense ranks 11th (46.5%) and 10th (34.6%), respectively, in those categories. That balanced inside-out attack gives Las Vegas multiple ways to score against an Indiana defense that has been vulnerable in transition and in the paint. Expect the Aces to make slowing Mitchell a priority while forcing other Indiana players to carry more of the offensive burden. Technically speaking, small WNBA small underdogs or favorites in games with totals of 172 or more points are 74-113-2 ATS (39.6%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 4.4 points per game since 2011. Moreover, Eastern Conference teams averaging 87 or more points per game are just 123-155-4 ATS (44.2%), including 117-150-4 ATS (43.8%) since 2014. With the league's premier superstar in Wilson, a versatile playmaker in Young, and plenty of revenge motivation, take the Las Vegas Aces as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, August 6.

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Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

(953) Washington Nationals at (954) Philadelphia Phillies: Total

First Inning Over 0.5 (-120) Miles Mikolas (RHP), Cristopher Sanchez (LHP) Must Start

Mikolas has 4 straight YRFI with a 5.50 ERA

Sanchez has 6 YRFI in 23 starts with a 2.68 ERA, but in his L5 starts he has a 4.39 ERA

Washington is 3-0 & 5-1 YRFI

Phiily is 3-0 YRFI and 5-0 YRFI at home

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Jagiellonia vs Rangers
Europa League, Thursday, 12pm ET

Play: Jagiellonia PK (same bet as +0.0 or Draw no Bet)
Odds at Time of Release: -101
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

Jagiellonia are +180 underdogs here, the Draw at +220 and Rangers are +135 favourites and I'm not sure I agree with this set of odds. The implied probability of Rangers winning this game is roughly 42%, which I think is a bit too high considering that Rangers are in a transitional period, they started the season with an away draw at Dundee and they are traditionally bad on the road in these competitions. Last season they lost all 4 away matches in the league phase of the Europa League, scoring 3 and conceding 10 goals and never really got it going.

Jagiellonia are in really solid shape right now with back to back wins in their domestic league after the restart, and did really well in the friendlies (W5 D1 L0), while keeping 5 clean sheets in that span. They've lost just 1 of L/10 competitive matches, last season they went W2 L1 at home in the league phase of the Conference League and that sole loss was to finalists Rayo Vallecano. They also lost at home to Fiorentina in the knockouts, but Rangers are no Fiorentina.

Again, I disagree with the set of odds here, going with the hosts on this one.

Take 2% on Jagiellonia PK (-101), line good to -120. This is the same bet as Jagiellonia Draw no Bet and Jagiellonia +0.0, so pick whichever one has the best odds in your book.

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After posting shutout wins in three of four games for the first time since May of 1986, the Phils faltered last night and saw their recent uptick stopped by the Nats in extra innings. Though Thursday starter Christopher Sanchez is very capable of contributing to another shutout, we doubt the Phils will need that sort of effort Thursday night.

Philly ought to bring plenty of smoke at CBP vs. Nats starter Miles Mikolas, who's allowed six homers across just 13 2/3 IP in his last three starts. He'slso posted a 6.46 ERA since July 1, as opponents are batting nearly .300 against him, with not much swing-and-miss in his repertoire these days. Washington's bullpen might have to plug many leaks in the dam tonight. Play Nationals-Phillies “Over”

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Boston is out of control right now. The Red Sox have won 7 straight and 25 of their past 28 games as they prepare to sweep the South Side tonight. They’ve outscored the White Sox 18-2 so far in the series with “bet on” pitcher Ranger Suarez ready to take the mound. Suarez has phenomenal analytics, entering with a wOBA of .277 and ranking in the 92^nd percentile in pitching run value overall. Boston also has the best bullpen in baseball once he exits. Luis Castillo will be making his debut in a Chicago uniform, and while he’ll give it his best, the fact is he’s underperformed this season and is far from the pitcher he used to be. Take the Red Sox -1.

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Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Chicago starter Luis Castillo projects to give up 3.0 runs with a 4.97 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.  Boston’s lineup has hit a solid .338 (24-71) with a strong .982 OPS against Castillo in his career.  The Red Sox will start Ranger Suarez.  The lefty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.38 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in the Boston’s favor, look for the Red Sox to get a solid home win in this game on Thursday night.

Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline).

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Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Riding the Royals over the Twins on Thursday . Kansas City starter Michael Wacha has been money the last three times out, going 19 innings letting up just 4 earned runs. Minnesota starer Bailey Ober is dealing with back to back starts against the same lineup. Plus, the Twins have now dropped four straight games. This one just missed the Wednesday client card. For today's free pick- Bet Royals.

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Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

Penn State Over 9.5 +140

Bottom line… They have the softest draw in the conference, no Indiana, no Ohio State, no Oregon. This season's opponents went .407 in Big Ten play last year. They also have zero P4 non-conference games. This screams over and that’s the reason this is a free play as opposed to client play.

Yes, the market has already priced in the soft schedule and is asking you to trust Matt Campbell in his first season at State College, with a new DC, and a defensive line that lost roughly 80% of its production. Let's count the likely wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland, that's nine games where they'd be favored, several heavily. Small dog at Michigan, coin flips versus USC at home, a team that has faltered in the Eastern Time Zone and at Washington. Are they going to win the Big Ten? Probaly not, but can they win 10 games and possibly be playing in Indianapolis to end the season.

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Chad Kelly Player Passing Yards Over +341.5 (-114)...(3%) Shop around. Good to 350.5. FanDuel current lowest line.

A passing prop of 341.5 yards might seem intimidating at first glance, but this is the exact type of matchup where Chad Kelly is capable of putting up massive numbers.

Kelly has quietly been one of the CFL's most productive quarterbacks this season, even if he hasn't received the same level of attention as some of his peers. He's already eclipsed 400 passing yards twice and has several more games with over 300 yards through the air. Those performances aren't outliers—they're a reflection of what this offense can do when forced into a high-tempo, pass-heavy game.

Toronto returns from its bye week for its official home opener, an unusual scenario in Week 10, and should be well-rested and prepared. The last meeting between these teams turned into an offensive track meet, with a combined 94 points scored in a 58-36 final. Calgary continues to be one of the league's most explosive offenses, routinely pushing games into shootout territory, which should once again force Toronto to stay aggressive through the air.

While Tre Ford and Harrison Frost struggled to generate much production against the Stampeders last week, Chad Kelly is a different caliber of quarterback, and this Argonauts passing attack is built to exploit Calgary's biggest weakness. The Stampeders rank second-last in points allowed per game and dead last in passing yards allowed, making this one of the best passing matchups on the board.

Everything points toward another high-scoring game, and if Toronto is going to keep pace, Kelly's arm will be the driving force. Back Chad Kelly to soar over his passing yards prop.

Released/revised 21 hour(s) ago

Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Last season I gave out Tech 100-1 on “Bet On It” as a crazy long shot to win the National Championship. This season, I’m doing the opposite.

This 10.5 win total was built around Brendan Sorsby, ESPN's No. 1-ranked transfer and a $5 million-plus signing instead the Red Raiders get Will Hammond, a redshirt sophomore with exactly two career starts, and the number is still priced for a proven eleven-win passer who isn't on the team anymore. Hammond tore his ACL last October and isn't expected to be cleared for full contact until around August 21st. He's been throwing in 7-on-7s, but he'll take his first live hits of the year in a game that counts, and McGuire has hedged the timeline all offseason with "week one, if not for sure week two." ACL returns aren't linear, and a dual-threat whose rushing was a real part of his value is now running behind a repaired knee. Any setback in camp, any cautious week, and the offense leans on Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis.

The schedule looks easy... With the toughest team they face being Houston or Arizona. The Sorsby saga made Texas Tech the sport's villain with every Big 12 opponent circling them. Letdown and revenge spots multiply for a team the whole conference wants to end. Eleven wins demands near-perfection from a first-year starter, in a league gunning for them, with almost nothing going wrong across four months. Ask a good-not-great quarterback to be flawless behind a rebuilt knee and the likeliest outcome is nine wins, not eleven.

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Adding breakdown soon...

Miles Johns -155

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Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

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225061 Club Tijuana pk,+½ -110 for Game...(4%) - thru +0.25 (-120)

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The Redblacks (0-7) are still searching for their first win. This is not the place to get it. The Riders (5-2) won at Edmonton last game, avenging a home loss from the previous week. Now, they can potentially be in first place in the West by the end of the week. For that to happen, they need to beat Ottawa and also need the Elks to lose at Montreal. They should hold up their part of the bargain. The Redblacks are getting outscored by an average of 11.6 points per game. They lost their last road game by 23. No letdown here. Riders take advantage of the favorable matchup and pull away for a double-digit victory.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Hawaii Over 7.5 Regular Season Wins.

I think back to Timmy Chang's first game as head coach of the Rainbow Warriors. I had a bet against them when they hosted Vanderbilt in their season opener. I said they hired their former quarterback and 2 x Hawaii Bowl MVP because nobody else would take the job. The program was a complete dumpster fire, and they ended up getting throttled 63-10 in a loss to the Commodores.

Well in the three years since, Chang has brought this team back to consecutive bowl games, and a 9-win season in 2025. Micah Alejado absolutely balled out in the bowl win in 2024, but he injured his foot in Week Zero last year and was limited by that injury for most of the season.

He still threw for over 3000 yards and 24 TDs, and Hawaii was 7-1 at home. With Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State now in the PAC12, there won't be too many games on the schedule that this team can't win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago