Free Sports Predictions NOV 12: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Baylor hits the road off back-to-back big offensive games.  The Bears scored 83 points in their last two wins against a couple of weak defensive teams.  They are now taking a big step-up in class on the road against a team that will be very focused for this game.  BYU returns home off a road loss to their rival Utah.  The Cougars have also lost 2 of their last 3 games after opening the season with a 6-0 record. BYU plays terrific defense at home where they only give up 15.6 points per game on just 4.2 yards per play.  Baylor’s offense will be hard-pressed to match their recent scoring output, and with BYU desperate for a win, expect a focused and conservative game plan resulting in a low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.

Play UNDER the total.

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Gave this one out on Wagertalk Today. I'm not sure why this line has been moving toward South Florida, given that they have not shown any ability to generate enough offense to beat teams that can. We've already seen South Florida lose a game to a team with a prolific offense in UTSA, and Memphis is better than they are. This South Florida defense has been outstanding this season, which is why they've won many of their games, but I don't see how they're going to score enough and get enough stops to limit the best offense in the conference. I'll take the better number and back Memphis, who should score more than enough to win this game by margin.

PLAY: MEMPHIS (-3.5)

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

In Uros Medic’s most recent fight we placed a 5% wager on him to finish Daniel Rodriguez by knockout (-140). Medic delivered the knockout shot just 30 seconds into the opening round. Easy cash! That result has us returning to the same approach for his matchup against Kevin Holland. Several clear factors continue to favor Medic in this spot. One of the most significant issues with Holland is a noticeable lack of motivation. He has spoken openly about having little interest in climbing the UFC rankings and has expressed no real desire to compete for a title. In a recent interview he indicated that he plans to retire in the near future and has no intention of re-signing once his current deal expires. These comments point to a fighter who is not fully invested in the outcome of individual bouts. Medic on the other hand, remains sharply focused and committed to steadily improving his overall game. The stylistic matchup also works in Medic’s favor. Holland is a long, rangy striker who can throw solid combinations, yet he often lacks the technical precision required against a sharp counter-puncher. Although he will hold a 10 inch reach advantage, he frequently fails to use that length effectively. Has a tendency to wing wild shots and overextend, which leaves him open to clean counters. In tighter exchanges he looks less comfortable and can struggle once the fight moves into the pocket. Medic is an explosive striker who carries legitimate one-punch power. He presses forward aggressively from the opening bell and that pressure should create problems for Holland on the feet. Medic’s biggest edge comes from the combination of quick hands and real stopping power. Those tools should allow him to find success in exchanges and land heavy shots. Defensively Holland remains vulnerable and is there to be hit. It should not take many clean connections from Medic to end the night early. The possibility of Holland looking for takedowns appears limited. Across his last 18 UFC fights dating back to 2021, he has recorded only 7 successful takedowns. This suggests the contest will largely be decided standing. Another concern showed up in Holland’s recent bout against Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez managed to drop Holland twice despite not carrying significant power in his hands. That result serves as a clear warning sign. If a fighter with modest power can hurt Holland, Medic should be more than capable of finishing the fight by knockout. Over Medic's 14 career victories, 12 of those were by KO and fully expecting him to add to that total Saturday night.

Free Play:

Uros Medic win by knockout (+115)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Missed +7.5 Opener -

Based on Power-Rating, still +EV thru +6

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

NHL - Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks

Game Thoughts: Sabres 1P cashed late yesterday and we'll look to take that prop play here against as they held to Chicago looking to bounce back off a bad effort at home to Tampa losing 8-3. Their last 8 road games has seen them go 6-2 to the first period over and they get a Hawks team struggling at the moment with a 1-8-1 record their last 10.

The play is Over 1.5 -141 First Period Total

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

The high level simple reason I'm willing to lay this number with Texas A&M is I think the Pokes struggle on the road and with the "Bucky Ball" that the Aggies will throw at them here.

The total suggests there won't be many stops in this game for either side but I think Texas A&M is the less likely to have a scoring drought.

Finally, I think Oklahoma State is way overvalued by the Queens result as that 118-68 final has more to do with Queens playing their 3rd game in 5 days in a horrific travel spot than it does Oklahoma State being 50 points better.

I make Texas A&M -9.1 and I like the setup so I decided to roll with the juiced -7.5 here.

Rob Veno and I broke this game down on Full Court Press. Timestamp in the description.

Play on Texas A&M -7.5 (-120) for 3% (or 3 units)

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on SMU.

The Mustangs have had a somewhat disappointing season, two years removed from an appearance in the College Football Playoffs. Wake is the Playoff contender heading into this game, and they are getting a ton of respect from bookmakers. While I think Wake is a good team, and they deserve respect... they shouldn't be a favorite on the road at SMU. These teams played last year with Wake winning 13-12. That makes this a revenge spot for an SMU team that plays very well at home. Kevin Jennings has been plagued by turnovers (on the road), but his home/away splits suggest that might not be an issue here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

This is a 2-team, 6-point teaser. For those unfamiliar, we are moving the spread six points in our favor on two games (in each case +2.5 to +8.5). Both legs have to hit. This would be considered a pretty standard "Wong Teaser," as we're moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in games where the respective totals are low.

2% Teaser (2-team, 6-point) - Washington (8:15 ET Thurs) & Carolina (1:00 ET Sunday): You probably remember the last time the Commanders and Giants met as the game ended in a tie (27-27) due to Washington's inability to manage the clock at the end of overtime. The Commanders were the better team that day, outgaining the Giants 6.3 to 4.9 on a per play basis. They also led by 14 in the 4Q. In a similar vein, the Commanders also outgained the Rams on a per play basis (5.4 to 4.7) only to come up short again on the scoreboard. Dan Quinn's team is now 2-5-1 SU on the season. I know it's tough to trust them, especially with an injury at center, but that's where the teaser option comes in. While the Giants' SU record is 5-2-1, four of their wins have come by eight points or less. The one exception was at home against Arizona where they had a 98-yard INT return on the final play to get the final margin to 12. Remember that JJ McCarthy is the starting QB for New York.

For the second leg of this teaser bet, let's take Carolina up to +8.5 as well. The Panthers were pretty unfortunate to lose 26-21 at home to Denver last week. There was a controversial INT ruling in the end zone that went against them. Fortunately, I had them in a tease and cashed (other leg was Seattle). Carolina had the YPP edge (5.7 to 4.8) over the Broncos. Now, money has come in AGAINST the Panthers this week as the Saints are favored after opening as the dog. Again, just like the Giants, New Orleans struggles to win by margin. All three of their wins this season have been by seven points or fewer. I played the Saints ML last week and got a very fortunate win as they stopped Cleveland's potential game-winning 2-point attempt in OT. The fact that New Orleans, who was playing at home and off a bye, struggled to beat a Browns team playing its third consecutive road game and starting Shedeur Sanders at QB was very eye-opening. 2% Teaser (2-team, 6-point) - Washington and Carolina (must get +7.5 or better on both legs)

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Indiana hung on for an 83-80 win over Syracuse on Monday night and allowed the Orange to shoot 50.9% from the field and 42.1% from 3-point range. Although the Hoosiers are 3-0, they've allowed all 3 of their opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field. The Hoosier next game after tonight will be against #29 Arkansas. This game tonight is sandwiched between 2 Power 5 Conference opponents which usually results in a dropoff of defensive intensity.

During their 2 games versus Division 1 opponents this season, Tennessee Tech scored 88 points at Mississippi State and 97 points in a home win over Western Kentucky. The Golden Eagles have 6 players that are averaging 11.0 or more points per game. Tennessee Tech made a noteworthy 41.2% of their 3-point shot attempts in those 2 previously mentioned games this season against Division 1 opponents.

Bet Tennessee Tech over their team total of 73.0 or lower.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

I really like Jayden Daniels UNDER 202.5 passing yards against the New York Giants, especially considering how difficult this defense has been to throw against all season. Daniels has thrown for 274, 217, and 300 yards in his last three games, but he's also attempted at least 29 passes in each of those contests, and I don't expect the same passing opportunities in this matchup. The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to exceed 202.5 passing yards just once all season, putting them alongside Seattle and Minnesota as one of the three toughest passing defenses in football. In the first meeting against New York, Daniels finished with just 199 passing yards, and more than 40 of those came in overtime, meaning he was well below this number through regulation. Another factor I really like is that the Giants have controlled the football for more than 35 minutes in each of their last two games, which limits the number of possessions and passing opportunities available to opposing quarterbacks. With New York's outstanding pass defense, their ability to control the clock, and Daniels struggling to reach this number even with overtime in their first meeting, Jayden Daniels UNDER 202.5 Passing Yards is the play.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Take Illlinois (#121)

Today’s Daily Double Free Play video offers my take on UCLA VS Illinois and Colorado vs Houston in Friday Night College Football action.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Bruins - Illini game.

No team in the country has a bigger betting bandwagon than the UCLA Bruins, still 100% perfect SU and ATS here in Mid-November after pulling away late at Minnesota last week.  But the betting markets aren’t offering UCLA bargains any more; they’re playing with a backup QB after their starter went down to injury, and the Illini team they’re facing has been a pointspread machine as an underdog, 100% perfect in that role this year.  Expect a battle, not a blowout!  Too many points!  Take Illinois.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

The market is forcing bettors to pay a premium for these teams' contrasting trajectories. Oregon is coming off an impressive 41-28 road victory over Ohio State, while Michigan just lost 15-6 to Michigan State and responded by changing offensive coordinators. That combination has pushed the Wolverines into the role of a 10.5-point road underdog, creating value on a Michigan team whose defense has been considerably better than its 5-4 record suggests. Michigan’s offense is unquestionably the concern. The Wolverines are averaging only 19.6 points and 302.6 yards per game, including just 173.9 through the air. They managed only six points against Michigan State, while Tommy Carr completed 53.9% of his passes for 138 yards with two interceptions and was sacked five times, reopening the quarterback competition between Carr and Bryce Underwood. The more compelling betting argument is Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines allow only 16.2 points, 255.4 total yards and 100.6 rushing yards per game. Oregon, by comparison, is allowing 22.1 points and 349.7 yards. Michigan’s ability to defend without needing significant offensive support has kept it competitive throughout the season, as each of the Wolverines’ four losses has come by fewer than 10 points, including 20-14 at Minnesota, 13-6 against Indiana, and 15-6 against Michigan State. That is particularly relevant when the market is now giving Michigan 10.5. John Henry Daley provides an important disruptive presence on the edge with six sacks, while veteran safety Rod Moore anchors a secondary that allows only 154.8 passing yards per game. That unit now faces an Oregon offense that produced 15 points against UCLA, 17 against Nebraska, and 10 against Illinois. Oregon has not consistently demonstrated the offensive floor of a team I want to lay double digits with against this caliber of defense.

The game environment strengthens the case for taking the points. A total below 42 combined with Michigan +10.5 means the spread accounts for roughly a quarter of all expected scoring. At the current total, the market is essentially asking Oregon to create substantial separation in a game expected to feature limited scoring. There is also potential situational value following Oregon’s emotional victory at Ohio State. The Ducks entered that game as 7.5-point underdogs and won 41-28, producing their best result of the season and immediately restoring optimism around the program. Oregon returns home as a double-digit favorite against a struggling opponent, which is a dramatically different psychological and betting position. Michigan’s offensive coordinator change adds uncertainty, but Kyle Whittingham has made clear that a complete schematic overhaul is unrealistic this late in the season. However, I expect Whittingham to simplify the offense, emphasize the running game, reduce obvious passing situations, and find enough additional efficiency to complement an already capable defense.

Another element of variance is worth noting. Oregon has lost eight fumbles at home, one of the highest figures nationally. Michigan cannot build the handicap around forcing turnovers, but one short field could dramatically change the spread calculus in such a low-total matchup. My technical database provides substantial support for Michigan, with several historically profitable ATS systems involving road underdogs, low-scoring conference matchups, and unranked teams facing ranked opponents.

• Play On: Unranked teams priced between -4 and +13 vs. ranked opponents, with totals between 30 and 46.5 points, are 201-128 ATS (61.1%) since 1998, generating +60.2 units and a +16.6% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +3 or greater with totals below 46 points are 497-364 ATS (57.7%) since 2000, generating +96.6 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play On: Unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game, with totals of 47 points or fewer, are 496-391 ATS (55.9%) since 1991, generating +65.9 units and a +6.8% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +7 or greater with totals of 48 points or fewer are 531-408 ATS (56.5%) since 1989, generating +82.2 units and a +8.0% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams in games with posted totals below 40 points are 203-139 ATS (59.4%) since 1989, generating +50.1 units and a +13.3% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +3 to +11.5 coming off an upset loss as double-digit favorites are 92-54 ATS (63.0%) since 1989, generating +32.6 units and a +20.3% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of fewer than 25 points, with totals below 46, against opponents coming off an ATS victory from Week 7 onward are 213-156 ATS (57.7%) since 1989, generating +41.4 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams coming off an upset victory over a top-15 opponent are 104-132 ATS (44.1%) since 2017, with opponents generating +17.6 units and a +6.8% ROI;

• Play On: Kyle Whittingham-coached underdogs coming off an ATS loss are 24-7 ATS (77.4%) since 2005, generating +16.3 units and a +47.8% ROI.

Oregon deserves to be favored, but the market is asking a different question: is Oregon sufficiently superior to beat a defensively capable Michigan team by at least 11 points? The season-long evidence makes that considerably harder to justify. Michigan has yet to lose by double digits, allows only 16.2 points per game, and enters a matchup carrying a total below 42. Even if the Wolverines remain limited offensively, their defense gives them a viable path to forcing the type of game where +10.5 becomes extremely valuable. Take Michigan as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Minnesota travels to Toronto on Thursday night, looking to extend its impressive road success against a Maple Leafs squad that continues to struggle with defensive consistency and home-ice performance. The Wild have won six of their last eight games and possess an 8-3-2 road record, earning points in ten of their thirteen games away from home. Minnesota's greatest advantage is its defensive efficiency, as the Wild lead the NHL in goals allowed per game (2.20), compared to a Toronto team surrendering 3.45 goals per contest. The Maple Leafs have also struggled to limit opposing scoring opportunities, ranking 27th in shots allowed and losing five of their last six games. Minnesota has an equally impressive offense, averaging 3.25 goals per game and converting 27.1% of its power-play opportunities, the eighth-best mark in the league. Kirill Kaprizov has been outstanding with 17 goals and 15 assists, ranking second in the NHL in goals while scoring in five of Minnesota's last six road games. Matt Boldy has contributed seven goals and eleven assists, while Maxim Shabanov has added eight goals, giving Minnesota multiple scoring threats to exploit Toronto's defensive deficiencies. The Maple Leafs remain dangerous offensively behind Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Jack Roslovic, but their 3.35 goals-per-game average hasn't been enough to offset persistent defensive breakdowns. Toronto's 4-7-1 home record is particularly concerning, and the Maple Leafs have lost thirteen consecutive games as underdogs immediately following a home defeat.

Minnesota has won six consecutive road games and covered the puck line in seven of its last eight contests against opponents entering on losing streaks. The Wild have also shown excellent defensive structure in high-leverage situations, while Toronto's inability to consistently protect its own zone creates favorable opportunities for Minnesota's balanced offense. Although Filip Gustavsson's absence is a concern for the Wild, Minnesota's overall defensive performance and superior road form provide meaningful advantages against a Toronto team struggling to generate consistent results. With the Maple Leafs having lost seven of twelve home games in regulation and Minnesota earning points in nearly 77% of its road contests, the Wild possess the stronger statistical and situational profile in Thursday's matchup.

My technical database provides further support for Minnesota:

• Play On: Road favorites priced between -107 and -174 entering off exactly one win vs. opponents coming off a game as underdogs and not experiencing a prolonged losing streak are 478-281 (63.0%) since 2003, generating +105.0 units and a +10.3% ROI;

• Play On: .400 or greater road favorites vs. opponents also possessing winning percentages of at least .400 are 2761-1911 (59.1%) since 2007, generating +169.1 units and a +2.6% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites with fewer than three days of rest with another road game on deck are 2430-1606 (60.2%) since 2003, generating +108.3 units and a +1.8% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites priced at -175 or shorter arriving off a victory preceded by a loss, provided they average more shots on goal than their opponent, are 610-405 (60.1%) since 2005, generating +72.2 units and a +5.3% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites priced between -120 and -209 seeking revenge for a previous home loss vs. the same opponent are 724-425 (63.0%) since 2002, generating +115.0 units and a +6.9% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites priced between -145 and -209 seeking revenge for a previous home loss that finished under the total are 156-79 (66.4%) since 2003, generating +25.9 units and a +6.7% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams riding losing streaks of at least four games against opponents that have won three of their previous four games are 437-329 against (57.0%) since 2009;

• Play Against: Home underdogs coming off a game in which they registered at least 30 shots on goal are 1,676-1,216 against (58.0%) since 2003;

Minnesota's defensive superiority, balanced offensive production and exceptional road performance create a favorable matchup against a Toronto team that continues to struggle at home. The Wild lead the NHL in scoring defense, have won six consecutive road games, and possess the offensive personnel necessary to capitalize on Toronto's defensive vulnerabilities. With the Maple Leafs having lost five of their last six games and Minnesota showing consistent success on the road, take the Wild as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Thursday, November 12.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Take Mississippi State (#128)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my ‘Free Play’ opinions for Ohio State – Northwestern and Auburn – Mississippi State in early start action on Saturday.  Here’s a brief write-up for Tigers – Bulldogs.

My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Auburn last week when they had to rally from behind at home to beat lowly Arkansas by a field goal.  I have no hesitation fading the Tigers again this week in Cowbell Country.  Auburn had one magical day this season when they pulled an outright upset at Georgia (on a day the Bulldogs were flat after a war with Alabama the previous week), but they’ve been consistently overvalued ever since that single victory.  Mississippi State played much better last week, and now they’re facing a team they can beat even without Kamario Taylor in the lineup.  Live home dog here! Take Mississippi State.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

(551) Detroit Pistons at (552) Washington Wizards: Spread

3% Detroit Pistons -10.5 (-110).downgrade at -12

Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards

Detroit Pistons

• The Pistons enter with a strong 7–3 record both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Their consistency is notable, with a perfect 7–0 record SU and ATS in their victories.

• As road favorites, they have been dominant, boasting a 4–0 record and covering the spread by an average of 10.3 points per game.

Washington Wizards

• After winning their season opener, the Wizards have struggled, going 3–8 SU and 4–7 ATS since.

• They are currently dealing with a difficult schedule, having played six games in November compared to Detroit's four, and are coming off a four-game road trip that included a 114–101 loss to Indiana just last nigh.

• The Wizards have failed to cover frequently as small favorites or underdogs, holding a 0–7 SU record (losing by an average of 13.9 points) and a 1–6 ATS record. Their shooting accuracy has been inconsistent, with field goal percentages of 29.6%, 46.1%, and 41.1% over their last three games.

Betting Trends and Context

• Rest Advantage: System trends indicate that away favorites with at least two days of rest facing a team with no rest have historically performed well, covering the spread at a 63% rate (74–44–2).

• Performance Metrics: Away favorites of -5 or higher that are coming off a home win, having scored 105+ points in three consecutive games, and are facing a team off an away loss, have also shown strong historical performance (64% ATS).

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Detroit travels to Washington on Thursday night with a significant rest advantage against a struggling Wizards team playing its second game in as many nights, creating a favorable opportunity for the Pistons to extend their impressive early-season performance. Detroit enters with a 7-3 record and has covered seven of its first ten games, while Washington has dropped seven of its last ten contests and failed to cover four of its previous five. The Pistons have a substantial defensive advantage, allowing just 104.6 points per game on 43.0% shooting, compared to a Wizards team that surrenders 113.4 points per contest. Washington's defensive deficiencies should create opportunities for a Detroit offense averaging 112.7 points per game while shooting 46.6% from the field and 37.0% from three-point range. Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons with 22.3 points per game and has recorded at least seven assists in nine contests, demonstrating his ability to create quality scoring opportunities against vulnerable defenses. Duncan Robinson has contributed 18.6 points per game, while Daniss Jenkins provides additional scoring depth with 12.7 points and 3.6 assists per contest. Washington's offense has struggled despite possessing considerable individual talent, ranking 27th nationally in scoring and 29th in three-point percentage at just 29.6%. Trae Young is averaging 18.5 points and 8.7 assists, but his production hasn't translated into consistent team success, especially as the Wizards struggle to establish an offensive rhythm.

Detroit's defensive efficiency should be especially valuable against a Washington team playing without rest after Wednesday night's loss to Indiana. The Pistons have also shown they can exploit this matchup, defeating Washington by eleven points in their most recent meeting. Washington has lost fourteen consecutive games when playing with a rest disadvantage and failed to cover seven of its last eight games as a home underdog against Eastern Conference opponents. Detroit, meanwhile, has covered seven consecutive nights after a home win, showing its ability to maintain momentum in favorable scheduling situations. Although Jalen Duren's absence could affect Detroit's interior rebounding and defensive rotations, the Pistons have enough offensive depth and perimeter efficiency to exploit Washington's defensive vulnerabilities. With Detroit holding advantages in overall team quality, defensive efficiency, recent ATS performance, and rest, the Pistons are positioned to secure another convincing victory over the Wizards.

My technical database provides further support for Detroit:

• Play On: Double-digit road favorites are 409-340 ATS (54.6%) since 2005, generating +35.0 units and a +4.3% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites of at least five points are 1868-1577 ATS (54.2%) since 2009, generating +133.3 units and a +3.5% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites laying at least six points vs. opponents averaging no more than 50 fast-break points over their previous four games are 891-689 ATS (56.4%) since 2003, generating +133.1 units and a +7.7% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites laying at least five points following three consecutive games in which they scored at least 105 points are 795-625 ATS (56.0%), generating +107.5 units and a +6.9% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites facing unrested opponents coming off a road game and playing their third game in four days are 341-255 ATS (57.2%) since 2003, generating +60.5 units and a +9.2% ROI;

• Play On: Favorites laying at least 8.5 points against opponents coming off an under, provided the favorite allowed fewer than twelve fast-break points in its previous game, are 726-559 ATS (56.5%) since 2009, generating +111.1 units and a +7.9% ROI;

• Play Against: Home underdogs of at least +4 entering off three consecutive road games, provided the teams have at least two combined days of rest, are 327-263 ATS against (55.4%) since 2003, generating +37.7 units and a +5.8% ROI.

Detroit's superior defensive efficiency, balanced offensive production, and substantial rest advantage create a favorable matchup against a Washington team struggling to remain competitive. The Pistons have covered seven of their first ten games, while the Wizards have failed to cover four of their last five and continue to struggle offensively despite possessing several talented scorers. With Washington playing on consecutive nights and Detroit already owning an eleven-point victory over the Wizards, take the Pistons as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, November 12.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

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Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The Suns are 6^th in the NBA in 3 point shooting percentage and drained 22 in a 133-110 win over the Clippers the last time they took the floor. Phoenix will be taking on a wounded Hornets squad tonight that is missing Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, and Dennis Schroder. Charlotte has lost 6 of their past 7 SU and we’ll look for that trend to continue as Phoenix takes care of business at home. Take the Suns.

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Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Amid a variety of high-octane offenses in the American, South Florida is something of an anomoly this season, relying more on its defense and more likely to be involved in lower-scoring games in Brian Hartline's first season on the job.

To wit: allowing only 15.1 ppg, the Bulls are tied with Tenenssee for the 10th spot nationally in scoring defense. There's also a chance that QB Michael Van Buren will miss a second consecutive game due to injury, but on just 6 TD passes this season, Van Buren hasn 't been much of a spark (though he's more of one than backup Luke Kromenhoek). Tigers QB Marcus Stokes (25 TD passes) is the most-dangerous threat on the field, but this is also likely the best defense that Memphis has seen. Play Memphis-South Florida "Under"

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Take Washington (#113)

From an urgency standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams on Thursday NIght.  The Giants have a multi-game lead in the NFC Least, sitting in first place with a decent sized betting bandwagon thanks to their 4-1-1 SU/5-1 ATS mark in their last six games -- John Harbaugh's team is a tad bit 'fat and happy' on a short week. Meanwhile, Washington is playing for the right to stay relevant over the back half of the campaign.  Dan Quinn's squad hasn’t forgotten blowing a two TD late lead vs the Gmen last month; a game that ended in a tie.  No surprise here if this game, too, rewards underdog bettors.  Take the Commanders

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The market is pricing Saturday’s Big 12 matchup for another shootout after Texas Tech and Oklahoma State combined for 119 points in their most recent games, but that is exactly what creates value on Under 73. A total this high requires both offenses to sustain extreme scoring efficiency, and the number leaves meaningful room for regression without requiring either offense to play poorly. Texas Tech’s 53-48 victory over West Virginia was an extreme offensive environment, as the Red Raiders generated 638 yards, including 276 on the ground, while Thomas Castellanos threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns and added 102 rushing yards. At the same time, Texas Tech surrendered 582 yards and 48 points without forcing a turnover. Oklahoma State enters from an even more extreme result, scoring 66 points against Kansas State. The Cowboys generated 565 yards and built a 49-14 halftime advantage after scoring 28 points in the opening quarter. That kind of early-game scoring efficiency is inherently difficult to project, and the Under does not require either offense to suddenly become inefficient. It requires the teams to fall short of the extraordinary pace established by their most recent performances.

Oklahoma State’s defensive performance against Kansas State also provides more encouragement than the 66-28 final might suggest. The Cowboys limited the Wildcats to 327 total yards and generated three interceptions. That turnover creation becomes particularly important against Thomas Castellanos, whose dual-threat ability creates enormous upside but also places substantial responsibility on the quarterback. If Oklahoma State can force even a handful of negative possessions, Texas Tech’s scoring pace should fall well below last week’s extraordinary level. The same regression argument applies to Oklahoma State. Drew Mestemaker has produced 29 touchdown passes, but Texas Tech enters 8-1 and owns the stronger overall power profile. The Red Raiders’ defensive performance against West Virginia was poor, but extrapolating that one result into another 40-plus-point allowance assumes Texas Tech makes virtually no adjustment after its most vulnerable defensive performance.

There is also a potentially helpful weather component. The current forecast calls for winds around 11 mph with gusts reaching 24 mph at Boone Pickens Stadium, which would complicate vertical passing and kicking efficiency. In a game that demands extraordinary offensive production, even a modest reduction in explosive passing or field-goal reliability benefits the Under. My technical database provides further support for the Under:

• Play UNDER: Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, from Week 5 forward, are 297-229 (56.5%) since 1989, generating +45.1 units and a +7.8% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, with fewer than 10 days of rest, are 548-444 (55.2%) since 1989, generating +59.6 units and a +5.5% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points and allowed at least 45 points, with posted totals of 50 or higher, are 482-373 (56.4%) since 2013, generating +71.7 units and a +7.6% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points and gave up at least 45 points, with totals of 60 or higher, are 276-217 (56.0%) since 2013, generating +37.3 units and a +6.9% ROI;

• Play UNDER: .501 or greater teams entering off games that exceeded the closing total by at least 30 points, vs. .501 or greater opponents are 229-168 (57.7%) since 1989, generating +44.2 units and a +10.1% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Home teams coming off victories by 35 or more points vs. opponents that are not coming off road victories are 135-104 (56.5%) since 2022, generating +20.6 units and a +7.8% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Home teams with posted totals above 60 points are 451-390 (53.6%) since 2021, generating +22.0 units and a +2.4% ROI.

Both teams are coming off extraordinary scoring performances, including Oklahoma State’s unsustainable 49-point first half and Texas Tech’s 101-point shootout, causing the market to react aggressively. With Oklahoma State showing improved defensive disruption, Texas Tech having obvious incentive to correct last week’s defensive breakdowns, and the total requiring another exceptionally efficient performance from both offenses, 73.0 provides enough cushion to back a more normalized scoring environment. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

East Carolina travels to Charlotte on Saturday, looking to extend its two-game winning streak against a 49ers squad that has struggled on both sides of the ball throughout the season. The Pirates improved to 5-4 following an impressive 20-17 victory over South Florida, generating 361 total yards, 25 first downs, and a decisive defensive performance that limited the Bulls to just one conversion in ten third-down opportunities. Quarterback Emory Williams completed 19 of 27 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, while Ashton Gray provided balance with 101 rushing yards on 18 carries. East Carolina's offense has struggled with consistency, scoring 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games, but Charlotte's defense presents an excellent opportunity for the Pirates to regain their offensive rhythm. The 49ers rank last nationally in scoring defense (137th), surrendering 38.3 points per game, and have been particularly vulnerable late in games, allowing an FBS-worst 11.0 fourth-quarter points per contest. Charlotte's offense has been equally ineffective, scoring fewer than 13 points in five of its nine games and averaging just 234 total yards in last week's 23-12 loss to UAB. The 49ers managed only ten first downs against the Blazers and converted just four of seventeen third-down opportunities, illustrating their inability to sustain possessions. Quarterback Conner Harrell completed 15 of 31 passes for 175 yards against UAB, while Charlotte's rushing attack produced little, led by Khamani Alexander's 40 yards. East Carolina's defense should be particularly effective against this one-dimensional attack after limiting South Florida to 329 total yards and just a 10% third-down conversion rate.

The Pirates are better than their record suggests, as two of their four losses came in overtime against UAB and Memphis. In contrast, Charlotte has dropped eight of nine games, including six consecutive losses to open the season, and its lone victory came against Temple. East Carolina's ability to control possession with its running game, combined with Charlotte's offensive inefficiency and disastrous fourth-quarter defense, creates a favorable matchup for the Pirates to gradually extend their advantage. The disparity in overall team quality, recent performance, and situational circumstances strongly favors East Carolina against the spread.

My technical database provides further support for East Carolina:

• Play Against: Charlotte at home is 22-67 ATS (24.7%) since November 2021, generating +15.4 units and a +50.0% ROI for bettors opposing the 49ers;

• Play Against: Teams coming off a game in which they scored no more than one touchdown against opponents riding winning streaks of at least two games are 531-435 ATS against (55.0%) since 2011, generating +52.5 units and a +4.9% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites of -6.5 to -19 points that won at least three games the previous season, coming off a game as favorites against opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, are 702-586 ATS (54.5%) since 2013, generating +57.4 units and a +4.0% ROI;

• Play On: Double-digit road favorites playing with 6-9 days of rest vs. opponents playing with 6-9 days of rest are 691-557 ATS (55.4%) since 2009, generating +78.3 units and a +5.7% ROI;

East Carolina possesses significant advantages in offensive balance, defensive execution, and recent form, while Charlotte continues to struggle with sustained offensive production and fourth-quarter defensive breakdowns. The Pirates have won consecutive games against Temple and South Florida, and their ability to limit opponents on third down should prove particularly valuable against a Charlotte offense that converted just 23.5% of its third-down opportunities last week. With the 49ers allowing more than 38 points per game and possessing one of the nation's least productive offenses, East Carolina is well positioned to control this matchup and cover the number. Lay the points with the Pirates as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This will be the first meeting between the Tigers and Bulldogs since Auburn's 27-13 home win in October 2023. Mississippi State is 0-5 straight-up and against the spread following last week's home loss to Vanderbilt. During this five-game losing skid, Mississippi State has scored an average of 12.8 points per game as the Bulldogs struggle to replace the production of injured QB Kamario Taylor. Five of the Bulldogs' last six games have stayed under the total. Auburn snapped a two-game losing skid with a 26-23 home win over Arkansas. Despite the victory, the Tigers are just 1-6 against the spread over their last seven games. Backing the Bulldogs hasn't been much fun in recent weeks, but we're inclined to give Mississippi State a shot. Hail State plays FCS-level Tennessee Tech next week (we're going to pencil in a win), so Mississippi State needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. After such a strong start to the season, you have to imagine that Jeff Lebby can keep his team motivated with that carrot. AJ Swann isn't going to be able to replicate what Taylor did for this offense, but he provides a veteran presence that can make enough necessary plays to get the Bulldogs across this finish line. Running back Fluff Bothwell caught five passes last week against Vanderbilt, so Lebby is looking for creative ways to get the ball in his hands. Auburn can hang its hat on the upset win at Georgia, but the Tigers are 0-3 against the spread in their other three games away from home this season.
Play Mississippi State

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The Saints have won five of the last six meetings, including a pair of outright upsets last year. Carolina is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread over its last three games following last week's 26-21 home loss to Denver. The Panthers have allowed an average of 27.2 points per game over the last five contests. New Orleans is 1-5 against the spread over the last six games, but the Saints did pick up an outright win over Cleveland last week. New Orleans continues to produce terrible offensive numbers in the first half. After a 3-3 first half tie with Cleveland last week, the Saints are now 1-7 against the first half spread this season. New Orleans has only scored in the first quarter two times in eight games, producing a total of nine first quarter points this season. Perhaps the potential return of running back Travis Etienne Jr. is just what the voodoo doctor ordered in the French Quarter. Etienne Jr. has not played since Week 3 against the Raiders, but he is expected to return to practice this week after dealing with a hamstring injury. New Orleans has the second-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL this season (Raiders last), so his potential return would be a big boost for the Saints' offense. Carolina is running out of healthy bodies on defense. A unit that already has five players on IR was missing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke last week against the Broncos. If New Orleans can't muster some early scoring against this defense, then Kellen Moore needs to tear it all down and start over. Don't forget, owner Gayle Benson has been keeping a closer-than-normal eye on her team in recent weeks and wrote a letter to the Saints' fan base after the loss to Pittsburgh in Paris. Last week's win over Cleveland was a small step in the right direction, but a home win over a division opponent would go a long way toward rebuilding excitement after Who Dat Nation watched their team lose its first three home games this season.
Play New Orleans Saints

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

UAB won the lone meeting between these American Conference foes with a 34-24 home victory in 2023. Temple was involved in one of the wildest under-the-radar results last week against Navy. The Owls fell behind 28-0 in the second quarter but fought all the way back to tie the game before eventually losing in the final minute. Temple scored 35 points in a game where they had 19 minutes of possession and nine first downs. UAB needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and this would be the spot to get it. The Blazers end the year with games against UTSA and North Texas, so this clash with Temple represents the best chance to reach that sixth win. With a regular season win total of 3.5 entering the year, Alex Mortensen's team has already exceeded expectations. It certainly wasn't pretty, but UAB earned a 23-13 home win over Charlotte last week. The Blazers' defense held the 49ers to 234 total yards and ten first downs. Charlotte didn't score its first touchdown until there was one minute remaining in garbage time. While this game isn't expected to see quite the same wind effects as some others this weekend, there is still the potential for gusts of 25+ miles per hour after the Nor'Easter passes through the Mid-Atlantic. Temple has been competitive all season for KC Keeler, but at some point, the Owls need to turn those strong showings into actual wins. Temple has one win over an FBS-level opponent this season. Until the cherry-and-white get over that hump, they're not giving us much reason to back them at the betting window. That potential sixth win can be a big motivational chip for Mortensen’s Blazers. Play UAB

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on ARI.

Utah is still undefeated, but their strength of schedule is questionable. They are coming off a win over BYU in a rivalry game, setting them up for a let down. They are on the road at Arizona, laying points despite the fact that they are facing a Top 5 QB in the conference for the first time. Arizona is undefeated at home this season, and 11-1 in their last 12 conference home games. Take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Florida has lost some momentum lately, but this is still a team that’s won on the road at Texas and Auburn and beaten Ole Miss at home. Kentucky, meanwhile, got a reality check last week in a 34-6 blowout at Tennessee. Even when the Wildcats do win, it’s often by a razor-thin margin, like their one-point escapes against South Carolina and LSU. The chilly weather won’t do the Gators any favors, but I still think they’re in a strong position to pull off the upset. Grab the points at +3 or better.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

When these two teams played earlier his season, the over/under was set at 45.5, and they blew past it with 61 combined points. This weekend’s rematch carries a noticeably lower total, which provides value on the over. Yes, Minnesota’s games have tended to be low-scoring, but Green Bay’s haven’t. The Packers put up 45 points on their own last week in a 72-point shootout with New England, and the week before that, their game against Carolina totalled 46. I cashed the under in the Vikings’ game against Buffalo, but this Sunday I’m going the other way. Play the Over

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

PLAY: Dallas +4.5

We were on the Niners on Sunday. Easiest cash of the day! We were also on the Colts +5 versus the Cowboys. Dallas put up 508 yards in Indianapolis without George Pickens. Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and the ground game added 179 more, with Javonte Williams going for 101 and Tyler Goodson adding 77 on 12 carries.

Prescott has 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions on the season, and the Cowboys have run for 179 yards or more in two of their last three games. Rookie Caleb Downs sealed the win in Indy with his first career interception.

San Francisco is a Super Bowl contender sitting 7-1, but it has been a road favorite only once this year and lost that game 29-20 in Atlanta with four turnovers. The receiver room is thin, too. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk all sat out last week, and Ricky Pearsall is done for the season. Maybe they can do it all with Kittle and McCaffrey, but that's a big ask.

Grab the points with the Cowboys at home.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

PLAY: USF +4

You snooze, you lose. I wanted to give this one out for my $5 Tuesday play, but it appears I'm late to the party. I still like the South Florida Bulls here. The Bulls defense is allowing 15.1 points a game, and they've held four opponents to 10 or fewer: FIU (9), Bowling Green (6), Kent State (2), and UAB (10). Even Saturday's 20-17 loss at East Carolina took a 55-yard field goal from Andrew Conrad as time expired.

The quarterback is the question. Michael Van Buren Jr. (6 TDs, 0 INTs) missed the ECU game with an undisclosed injury, and there's been no update on his status for Thursday. But Luke Kromenhoek was sharp in his first start, going 17-of-21 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no picks. D.J. Crowther got banged up on the opening drive and still ran for 111.

I faded Memphis early in the season and got burnt. That was until they went on the road. They lost 38-20 at Boise State and 31-17 at Tulane.

A Thursday night home dog with the best defense on the field? This one opened +6.5 and is down to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Give me the Bulls to win this one.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

In a matchup of two teams already essentially playing out the string, there is little reason to be conservative. The Colts are allowing 27.7 ppg. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 ppg. Indianapolis has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last five games and has seen five of its past six games produce a minimum of 26 points. Go with the over.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

I played against Virginia Tech last week. The Hokies got hammered 51-28 at SMU. The Mustangs had a 569 to 417 edge in yards. Off that big loss and with Miami (followed by instate rival Virginia) on deck, I feel that the Hokies may have some trouble getting up for Stanford. The Cardinal have been known to pull off some big upsets. Don't be surprised when they give their hosts all they can handle.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago