Free Sports Predictions APR 28: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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The Angels caught a bad beat last night with some poor bullpen play while in full control of the game. Today they bounce back with Jose Soriano, who has the best ERA in baseball at 0.24. Soriano hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past 3 starts and has given up just 1 run in 6 starts this season! LA is also swinging the bats well as of late and they won’t need to provide much run support tonight. Take the Angels.
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Pavlos Laguretos
UEFA
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Play: Red Card Awarded
Odds at time of Release: +380
Line Parameter: Line good to +300
Cards in H2H L/10 years: 6/6/9/1/5/4/5/8/6/5, at least 5 cards in 8 of 10
Red Card in 4 of L/5, a total of 5 Red Cards in L/5 matches.
Taking 1% on the Red Card (+380)
Referee is quite a controversial issue here, as Swiss-German Sandro Scharer has been selected. He's favoured German teams in the past, and has NOT favoured French teams, let me elaborate. Last season he was the referee in a French-German battle in the R16 of the Champions League between Lille and Dortmund, where Dortmund won by 2-1 on the road, and he also awarded Dortmund a penalty kick. Lille's president said that there is lack of impartiality and I quote: “When the referee was appointed and I saw that he was Swiss-German, I found it special. At halftime, he spoke with the Dortmund players exclusively in German“
About a month after that incident, he officiated the Europa League quarter-final between Man United and Lyon (a French team). He sent off Lyon's Tolisso at the 89th minute and with the score at 2-2. The match went to extra time, where Lyon managed to score TWO goals and take a 2-goal lead while down a man, then the referee awarded a Penalty kick to Man United, who went on to score THREE goals in 7 minutes to win by 5-4. So another French team was mugged.
Small sample, but this referee might not be impartial here. Let's look at his overall stats, see if anything comes up.
2025/26: 22 matches in all competitions, Avg 5.00 cards/match, 8 Penalty Kicks, 5 Reds
2024/25: 33 matches in all competitions, Avg 4.12 cards/match, 9 PKs, 4 Reds
2023/24: 18 matches in all competitions, Avg 4.16 cards/match, 6 PKs, 4 Reds
2022/23: 29 matches in all competitions, Avg 5.44 cards/match, 14 PKs, 10 Reds
2021/22: 38 matches in all competitions, Avg 5.28 cards/match, 12 PKs, 12 Reds
2020/21: 38 matches in all competitions, Avg 4.10 cards/match, 19 PKs, 7 Reds
Lifetime: 508 matches, Avg 4.75 cards/match, 170 PKs (0.33/game), 129 Red Cards (0.25/game)
Lifetime Champions League:
19 matches, Avg 4.05 cards/match, 7 PKs (0.36/game), 3 Reds (0.15/game)
Lifetime Champions and Europa League:
63 matches, Avg 4.68 cards/match, 18 PKs (0.28/game), 24 Reds (0.38/game)
Take 1% on Red Card Awarded (+380 FD), line good to +300
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Will Rogers
Major League Baseball
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Boston Red Sox/Toronto Blue Jays (OVER) | Good until 7.5, -125.
Pitching Matchup: Payton Tolle/Trey Yesavage. (Action).
I understand that these guys are two pitching prospects who are expected to do wonders for their respective organizations over the next few years. But, they are still learning about the big leagues and will make making their 2nd & 1st starts of their first full season here today. There's no question that Tolle lit up the Yankees in his first start this season. But, he didn't really show great command last season and the Blue Jays should definitely have a better game than yesterday. Yesavage has a ton of pressure at the moment with everyone expecting him to be the next ace. But, Boston also looks strong since firing Alex Cora. I like the OVER here.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Backing the Bronx Bombers over the Rangers at the short price. Spectacular starting pitching matchup on tap in Arlington, featuring Yankees young gun Cam Schlittler with a sub 2 ERA and a sparkling 41 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio.
Jacob deGrom has looked sharp to this point in the season himself. The difference is the Yankees bats are in much better form recently compared to the Texas lineup. New York has won 8 of their last 10 games and currently has the best record and run differential in the American League. This one just missed the client card. For Tuesday's free bet- Bet Yankees.
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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Two pitchers who dominate the batters they face today and one team in a huge flat spot.
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Mariners moneyline
Pro | Why it helps SEA ML |
|---|---|
Seattle bullpen edge | SEA had the stronger projected bullpen rank in the earlier chart: 6th vs MIN 25th over the last 10 days. If Gilbert can keep it close through 5-6 innings, Seattle’s late-game setup is the best pro-Mariner angle. |
Twins bullpen may be thinned | Current matchup notes flag Minnesota’s bullpen as impacted by injuries and depth issues, which matters more if Joe Ryan only gets through 5-6 innings. |
Mariners were the market favorite | Current market references had SEA around -129 despite the model leaning MIN. That means books still respected Seattle more than Minnesota, likely because of overall team/bullpen quality. |
Gilbert has strong K/BB indicators | Logan Gilbert’s listed line: 35 K, 7 BB in 33.0 IP. Even with a 4.36 ERA, that strikeout-to-walk profile is much cleaner than the surface ERA. |
Seattle has more power at the top | Cal Raleigh led Seattle with 7 HR, while Byron Buxton led Minnesota with 6 HR entering the matchup. In a low-total game, one swing can flip the ML. |
Bounce-back spot after ugly opener | Minnesota won Monday’s opener 11-4, with Seattle’s Luis Castillo allowing 7 runs in 5 innings. That result may inflate Twins sentiment, but it was more of a Castillo blowup than a full-series proof point. |
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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If the American League were to vote on the Cy Young Award as of April 28, the Angels’ Jose Soriano would be the odds-on favorite. He’s done a pretty good Bob Gibson circa 1968 impersonation, winning all five of his starts, posting an 0.24 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.
Unfortunately for the Halos, they’re 7-18 in the other 25 games he hasn’t started, and Kurt Suzuki might be tempted to leave Soriano on the mound a bit longer tonight due to recent bullpen issues. Meanwhile, Davis Martin has been the Pale Hose version of Soriano, spinning a 1.37 ERA across his last four starts. Play Angels-White Sox “Under”
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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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3% BOS ML (+102)
Good to -110
Tolle was not only great in his first start he was excellent in the minors and going back to lasty year in the show. Yes Yesavage was light out in the postseason but the Toronto staff did not trust him this year for good reason; the kid pitched to an over 8 ERA in the minors and is being called up to fill a spot. Red Sox dont give a ton of confidence offensively but this opening line is very telling.
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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Jose Soriano has been simply dominant to start the season. He's made six starts and is 5-0 (team is 6-0) with a 0.24 ERA. That's not a misprint. He's pitched 37 2/3 innings and has allowed one run. He's struck out 43 and opposing batters are hitting .143. Soriano faced the White Sox last spring. He delivered seven shutout innings and the Angels won 1-0. To his credit, Davis Martin has also been pitching really well. Still, nobody is doing what Soriano is doing. Let's go with Soriano and the Angels.
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Portland arrives in San Antonio for Game 5 off back-to-back losses, and Round 1 road underdogs coming off consecutive defeats are just 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%) since 2012. The total is lower than in the last two games, which matters because NBA playoff favorites are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) in Game 5 with totals of 220 or less, provided the totals have dropped from each of the previous two games. Portland is installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game in this series, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 264-352-13 ATS (42.9%). The team’s respective records are noteworthy because NBA favorites of -9 or greater with seven or more overall wins over their opponents are 148-93-3 ATS (61.4%) since 1998. San Antonio’s defense will be critical in Game 5, as the Spurs are 45-10 SU and 36-17-2 ATS when limiting opponents to fewer than 115.5 points per game. San Antonio is ranked eighth in the NBA in points allowed per game (111.5), while the Trail Blazers rank 16th in scoring offense (115.5 PPG). Finally, the Spurs fall into a profitable 249-191-6 ATS (56.6%) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests on NBA playoff teams that possess certain ATS margins. Lay the points with the San Antonio Spurs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 28.
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