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+81.43 units
66.9% (81-40-6)

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Chunichi Dragons vs Hanshin Tigers

Recent form

• Chunichi: 5–5, averaging 3.6 runs scored and 3.0 allowed

• Hanshin: 6–4, averaging 4.0 runs scored and 2.7 allowed

• Bullpen/recent prevention grade: Chunichi B / Hanshin A-

Both teams have prevented runs well, and Vantelin Dome further supports a lower-scoring projection.

Starting pitchers

Yuya Yanagi — Chunichi

• 2026: 4–2, 2.49 ERA

• 94 innings, 84 strikeouts, 24 walks and a 1.21 WHIP

• 2026 vs Hanshin: 1.89 ERA in three starts

• Recorded a quality start in all three appearances against Hanshin this season.

Yanagi’s 2025 ERA was 3.29, but his improved strikeout-to-walk profile and repeated success against Hanshin support much of this year’s improvement.

Current Hanshin hitters have a combined .217 average and .549 OPS in 410 historical at-bats against Yanagi. Shota Morishita is just 1-for-10, while Teruaki Sato has no home run in 42 at-bats against him.

Taketo Ihara — Hanshin

• 2026: 3–0, 3.57 ERA

• 17⅔ innings with a 1.42 WHIP

• 2026 vs Chunichi: 6.14 ERA in two appearances

• 2025: 5–7 with a strong 2.29 ERA over 110 innings

The 2026 opponent split is unfavorable, but the sample is limited and Ihara’s 2025 body of work was much stronger.

Matchup considerations

Hanshin has dominated the season series 11–4 and has hit .268 with 19 home runs against Chunichi. That prevents me from making Chunichi a major favorite, but Yanagi is the specific pitcher most capable of neutralizing the Tigers’ lineup.

Hanshin–Chunichi First 5 Under 4.5 at -180

Break-even probability: 64.3%
My projection: 75–78%
Fair price: approximately -300 to -355

Pros

• All three of Yanagi’s 2026 starts against Hanshin finished below 4.5 runs through five innings:

  • 2 runs

  • 1 run

  • 4 runs
    

• Yanagi has surrendered only two total runs during the first five innings of those three starts.

• Four of the last five Hanshin–Chunichi meetings stayed below 4.5 through five, with First 5 totals of 0, 1, 4, 3 and 6.

• Vantelin Dome is a favorable environment for pitchers, particularly for limiting home runs and crooked innings.

• The extra run compared with Under 3.5 is meaningful. Scores such as 2–2, 3–1 or 4–0 still cash.

• Ihara’s latest outing supports improved form: he allowed one run through 5⅓ innings against Yomiuri.

• My projected First 5 score is approximately Chunichi 1.5, Hanshin 1.3, producing a projected total near 2.8–3.0.

Best option for cash probability and protection against a four-run First 5.
Grade: A-

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Ito is the better pitcher but has a 6+ ERA against the Hawks. Kamichatani is unreliable but this should be a close game with SoftBank having the far superior bullpen and hitting.

The current comparison-board price is approximately -159. That requires a 61.3% cover rate. My estimated cover probability is approximately 68–71%, making the fair price roughly -215 to -245. At -159, it grades as positive value.

Pros

• SoftBank has dominated this season’s matchup. The Hawks are 11–2 against Nippon-Ham, batting .323 and scoring 96 runs in 13 games—7.4 per game. Their pitching staff has a 3.52 ERA in the matchup, while Nippon-Ham’s staff has a 7.05 ERA against SoftBank.

• The +1.5 covered in both games of the current series: SoftBank won 4–2 on July 14 and lost only 7–6 on July 15. It also covered comfortably in the prior meeting, an 8–0 SoftBank win on June 21.

• Hiromi Ito has a significant opponent-specific downgrade. His overall season ERA is 3.07, but it rises to 6.75 across three appearances against SoftBank. That makes it difficult to justify Nippon-Ham laying 1.5 runs solely because Ito is the more established starter.

• SoftBank’s pitching plan is uncertain, but not necessarily weak. Taiga Kamichatani has a 2.12 season ERA and a 2.45 ERA against Nippon-Ham over seven relief appearances. Because he is making his first start in three seasons, the +1.5 is preferable to the moneyline—it gives protection if he pitches only three or four innings and SoftBank has to piece together the game.

• SoftBank is the stronger overall team. The Hawks enter the game first in the Pacific League at 50–32–1, while Nippon-Ham is 49–39. The current favorite designation is largely driven by Ito versus an unconventional SoftBank starter, rather than overall team quality.

• A one-run game is a realistic outcome. SoftBank has enough offense to remain close even if Ito pitches well, and a score such as 4–3 or 5–4 still cashes the run line.

Concerns

• Kamichatani has worked exclusively in relief this season, so his workload is uncertain.

• Franmil Reyes is 3-for-7 with two home runs against Kamichatani in 2026, presenting a major middle-of-the-order danger.

• SoftBank’s bullpen had to cover meaningful innings during Wednesday’s 13-run game, reducing some of the normal relief advantage.

• Ito’s last start against SoftBank was much better than his aggregate split: six innings, two runs and 10 strikeouts.

Price assessment

• -145 or better: Strong value

• -146 to -165: Playable value

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Mexican LMB Baseball

Recent team form

Jalisco Charros at Aguascalientes Rieleros

Recent batting form

Jalisco hitters

Jalisco’s lineup has strong season averages despite averaging only 4.9 runs over its last ten:

• Gilberto Jiménez: .348; went 2-for-4 Tuesday.

• Kyle Garlick: .344.

• Allen Córdoba: .340.

• Jared Walsh: .316.

• Mateo Gil: .313.

• Alex Mejía: went 3-for-4 and drove in three of Jalisco’s four runs.

The problem in Game 1 was contact quality and strikeouts: Jalisco struck out 13 times, drew only one walk and went 2-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

Aguascalientes hitters

The Rieleros are swinging the hottest bats of these four teams:

• Maikel Serrano: .362.

• Amílcar Gómez: .321; went 3-for-4 with a home run.

• Ángel Reyes: .323; went 4-for-4 with two home runs.

• José Rondón: .324; went 2-for-4.

• Matthew Batten: .315; hit a three-run homer.

• Jack McDermott: .336; hit a three-run homer.

Aguascalientes hit five home runs and scored 13 runs in the opener. Reyes’ two homers raised his season total to 15.

Starting pitchers

Zac Grotz — Jalisco

Grotz has been one of the more dependable starters in the league:

• Nearly six strikeouts for every walk.

• Only four home runs allowed.

• 60 hits in 62.1 innings.

• Major improvement in ERA, WHIP and control from 2025.

His profile is particularly valuable after Aguascalientes punished Zach Plesac’s mistakes for four early home runs Tuesday. Grotz is much less likely to provide the same steady diet of hittable pitches.

Adrián Almeida — Aguascalientes

Almeida has allowed 53 hits in only 32 innings. Including walks, he has permitted 68 baserunners before hit batters or errors are considered. His strikeout rate is respectable, but he has not been able to suppress hits or limit damage.

I found no verified Grotz-versus-Aguascalientes or Almeida-versus-Jalisco start since January 2025 in the accessible official text, so I treated opponent history as neutral.

Starting-pitcher advantage

Very large advantage: Jalisco

This is the most important matchup component on the two-game board.

Bullpen analysis

Aguascalientes has had the better recent late-inning results. It also got six innings from Oscar de la Cruz in Game 1, so only three relievers were needed.

Jalisco had to cover 5.1 bullpen innings after Plesac was knocked out in the third. Four relievers allowed four runs, three earned. That creates a modest freshness advantage for Aguascalientes.

Matchup conclusion

The reasons not to lay a large price with Jalisco are:

• Aguascalientes is 23-11 at home.

• The Rieleros are 6-4 over their last ten.

• Their bullpen has been better recently.

• Their lineup just hit five home runs.

Nevertheless, Grotz versus Almeida is too large a mismatch for Jalisco to be priced at only -125. Jalisco’s lineup is also considerably better than the four-run Game 1 result suggests.

Projection

Jalisco 6.8 – Aguascalientes 5.1

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The under is the preferred play on Thursday, as both teams enter the rematch with greater emphasis on half-court execution than on tempo. Dallas has won five straight, but that success has been fueled as much by efficient offense and strong rebounding as by playing fast, with Jessica Shepard controlling the paint and Paige Bueckers directing the offense. New York has struggled to find consistency amid injuries to Satou Sabally (10.4 ppg) and Leonie Fiebich (10.0 ppg), and the Liberty have scored 91 points or fewer in each of their last three league games. However, New York’s defense ranks sixth in the league in both FG% (43.9) and 3P% (32.5), and the Liberty defend without committing many fouls, ranking second in free-throw attempts per game. After losing 88-77 to Dallas on July 7, expect New York to make defense its top priority to avoid another setback. The Wings have already shown they can slow the Liberty's offense by winning the rebounding battle and limiting transition opportunities, a formula they are likely to repeat. Dallas ranks 4th in the league in OREB allowed per game (7.4) and 5th in DREB (26.4). From a technical standpoint, WNBA home teams coming off back-to-back unders in their previous two meetings are 61-44 to the Under (58.1%) in games with totals over 160 points. Since 2013, WNBA teams with average totals of 166 or more points per game are 154-121-7 to the Under (56%) in games with totals of greater than 171 points, including 143-106-6 UNDER (57.4%) since 2018. Let’s also note that small underdogs of favorites in games with totals of 172 or more points are 82-67-4 to the Under (55%) since 2017. With both teams familiar with each other's tendencies and the Liberty desperate to tighten up defensively, this projects as a more physical, methodical matchup than the market expects. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, July 16.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 189-135 | +84 Units
-> Torrid 61-40 (60.4%) Overall Run | +33 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI) '25-26: 114-80 (59%)
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 125-77 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago