Free Sports Predictions MAR 19: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

High Point showed that they are no joke on Thursday, beating Wisconsin outright as double digit dogs. The Panthers have won 31 games this season and hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 15. They put up 90 per contest and rank top 5 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Chase Johnston was electric off the bench against the Badgers, making an off balance 3-pointer from the logo and going 4 for 6 from deep, with some really clutch shots to close out the game. Arkansas is a great team, they’re just running into a tough matchup against a squad that can really light it up. Whether the Panthers can get the SU win remains to be seen, but we’ll happily put them in our pocket catching double digits once again. Take High Point.

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Backing Utah State at the short price over Villanova. Utah State was the Mountain West Conference regular season and tournament champions, coming in winning and covering three straight games. A heavy junior and senior roster, combined with being the best shooting team in the conference makes for a solid bet this time of year.

Villanova is banged up entering the Tournament, tough travel spot out to Southern California. This team has struggled recently going just (2-5) their last 7 games against the spread. Also, they struggle on the free throw line. In the #8 vs #9 seeded matchup for Friday's free pick- Bet Utah State.

I went into more detailed analysis on the NCAA Tournament Show…..

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Missouri will be playing in their home state when they take on Miami in the first round on Friday. The Tigers will hold a significant size advantage in this matchup, and already come in at 38^th in offensive rebounding percentage. Led by Mark Mitchell, Mizzou is also 32^nd in 2-point shooting percentage and they defend inside as well.

What a turnaround it’s been for Miami, who won just 7 games a season ago. Coach Jai Lucas brought in a mixture of Freshman and transfers, completely overhauling the roster for what has been a very successful season. This game will come down to who wins the battle on the boards and free throw shooting, as both squads are terrible at the charity stripe. Expect Mitchell to have a big game as the Tigers move on the to 2^nd round. Take Missouri.

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• Projected winner: Brewers

  Team	Win %	Fair American odds	Book odds	Value vs book
  Brewers	53%	-113	-110	Small value on MIL (+3 cents)
  Diamondbacks	47%	+113	-110	Negative value on ARI (-23 cents)

  Projected score: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4.

  Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitching edge available pregame because of Jacob Misiorowski as the Brewers’ starter while Arizona’s starter is still undecided. Misiorowski’s spring line entering this game was 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.1 IP, and 12 strikeouts, and MLB had already flagged him as one of Milwaukee’s rotation locks with a realistic path to an Opening Day start.

  On batter form and lineup quality, Milwaukee looks a bit stronger. MLB’s projected 2026 lineup has Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Rengifo, Mitchell, and Ortiz, and MLB noted this is mostly the same core that ranked second in MLB in OBP and third in runs scored last season. Arizona’s projected lineup is solid with Perdomo, Marte, Carroll, Moreno, Arenado, Santana, Smith, Lawlar, and Thomas, but Carroll is coming off a broken hamate and MLB noted the DH spot is still unsettled during camp.

  Spring form is more favorable to Arizona overall, which is why I only make Milwaukee a narrow favorite. Spring standings show Arizona at 12-12 with 141 runs scored and 170 allowed, while Milwaukee was 10-14 with 122 scored and 122 allowed. Arizona also had the slightly better recent form, but Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile plus the better-known starter narrows that gap fast.

  Bullpen skill is close, but I lean slightly Arizona in late innings. MLB’s projected D-backs bullpen includes Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loáisiga, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson and others, while MLB described Loáisiga and Brandyn Garcia as impressive this spring. Milwaukee’s projected group has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and others, but MLB emphasized there were still “a ton of decisions” to make with that staff.

  Betting value

  • Brewers -110: slight value

  • Diamondbacks -110: no value

  • My fair line is basically Brewers -113 / Diamondbacks +113, so Milwaukee is only a small lean.

  Most likely script

  • Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the better chance to win the first few innings.

  • Arizona’s home lineup keeps pressure on and likely scores enough to make this competitive.

  • Milwaukee’s deeper top-to-middle lineup is the tiebreaker in a spring game with short starter usage.

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Xinjiang at Shenzhen — 3/20/2026 JST

Comparison chart

Head to head this season

Player vs player matchups

1st quarter trends and projection

1Q data used

Shenzhen last 5 overall 1Q

Xinjiang last 5 overall 1Q

Shenzhen last 5 home 1Q

Xinjiang last 5 away 1Q

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The NCAA Tournament has not been kind to Mountain West Conference teams, as these teams have posted a 24-44 SU (35.3%) and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) record in the Big Dance since 2012, losing by an average margin of -4.0 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.4 points per game. Even more alarming is the fact that college basketball teams coming from high elevation campuses are 25-83 SU (23.1%) and 26-50 ATS (34.2%) in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of -8.1 points per game and falling short of market expectations by an average of -4.8 points per game. More specifically, Utah State is 1-8 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, failing to cover the spread by an average of -11.4 points per game. Utah State falls into a very negative 117-150 ATS (43.8%) college basketball system that invests against certain neutral-site teams with 25 or more wins, provided they aren’t favored by three or more points. This situation is 53-80 ATS (39.8%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. More importantly, these 25-plus win teams are 85-114 ATS (42.7%) in the NCAA Tournament, including 29-50 (36.7%) since 2023. Grab the point(s) with the Villanova Wildcats as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

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Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.4% of the time (272-186), improving to 61.7% (166-102) since 2021, with games averaging 2.9 points below the total. Since 2019, Big Ten Conference teams are 29-12 to the Under (70.7%) in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, including 20-5 UNDER (80%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -5.2 points per game. Similarly, ACC underdogs of less than five points are 26-15 to the Under (63.4%) since 2013, including 19-10 UNDER (65.5%) since 2016, going under by an average margin of -4.3 points per game. Iowa possesses a mediocre offense ranked 207th in the nation in Points Per Game (75.2%), 112th in 3-Point FG% (35.7%), 358th in Rebounds (26.8), and 309th in Offensive Rebounds (7.6). The Hawkeyes will struggle to score against an above-average Clemson defense ranked 19th in Points Per Game Allowed (66.7), 47th in Field Goal Percentage Allowed (41.9), and 60th in Rebounds Per Game (29.6). The Tigers are also challenged offensively, ranking 237th in Points Per Game (74.1), 148th in Field Goal Percentage (148th), and 182nd in 3-Point FG% (34.1). Finally, both teams employ methodical offenses that utilize the shot clock. Specifically, Iowa ranks 361st in Pace (Pace = Possessions / 40 Minutes), while the Tigers rank 307th (65.6). Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

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761 Santa Clara & Kentucky in St Louis

Kentucky has really struggled this season against good basketball teams, and this Santa Clara team ranks 46th in our rankings. The Wildcats have gone 4-6 straight up down the stretch, and never really lived up to previous editions. Which is why we find them here as a low priced favorite, despite the nationally known basketball program. They are just 9-12 ATS when installed as a favorite this season.

The Broncos of Santa Clara are 26-8 on the season, 17-4 in the West Coast Conference. While Kentucky played better at home this year, the Broncs have been a very good road team. After playing St Mary's and Gonzaga the past two games, the Broncos won't enter here intimidated.

PLAY SANTA CLARA

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Akron has won ten straight games and earned its third consecutive NCAA tournament berth. However, since 2004, single-digit college basketball underdogs coming off ten or more consecutive straight-up wins are 111-88-2 to the Under (55.8%), including 93-70-1 UNDER (57.1%) since 2014. This situation is 36-22-1 to the Under (62.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.2% of the time (264-182), improving to 61.7% (158-98) since 2021, with games averaging 2.8 points below the total. Since 2016, first-round games featuring totals of 149 points or higher have gone 39-22-1 to the Under (63.9%). Additionally, early round matchups with totals of at least 135 points have gone 161-119-2 to the Under (57.5%), including 116-70 UNDER (62.4%) since 2017. Texas Tech falls into a profitable 139-113-1 (55.2%) college basketball totals system of mine that dates to 2015 and invests on the under in certain late-season games involving teams on an extended ATS losing streak. Finally, the Red Raiders are backed by a 523-419-7 (55.5%) totals system that favors the under when teams with eight or fewer losses face opponents with an average ranking better than seventeenth nationally. This situation is 251-190-2 to the UNDER (56.9%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Take the Under in the Akron/Texas Tech game as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.

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Let’s start with what’s going to confuse people — a 9-seed favored over an 8-seed, and a Mountain West team laying points to a Big East team.

Right away, the public is going to say Villanova is “free money.” Mountain West teams have struggled in the tournament for years, and the brand name plus conference perception will push bettors in that direction. But when something looks that easy, it usually isn’t. That’s the trap.

People love to lean on seeding and conference labels, but the oddsmakers — the ones taking real money — are telling you Utah State is the better team. And that’s what matters.

The Mountain West’s past tournament failures? Irrelevant to this specific Utah State team. This year, the Mountain West only sent one team — and it was clearly their best.

Meanwhile, the Big East wasn’t exactly deep. After UConn and St. John’s, it dropped off into a group of pretty average teams.

The public will back Villanova based on name recognition and conference bias. I’m not falling for it.

TAKE UTAH ST

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[FREE PICK] on Queens Nc ATS | Good until +23.5.

Everyone loves a good underdog story in March, and while this would take a big effort to pull off outright, Queens shouldn’t be overlooked. The Royals have good size across the lineup with multiple wings, which helps them match up better with Purdue than people might expect. We’ve already seen the Boilermakers fall to a lower seed in this tournament before, so the upset factor is always in play. Queens is also a very efficient offensive team, ranking No. 15 in effective field goal percentage. If they start hitting from deep, they can hang around. Purdue can score a ton as well, but they’ve had some tighter games earlier in the season against mid-major teams with strong offenses, including wins over Oakland by 10 and Akron by 18. Taking the points is the right play.

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Free Play: Shem Rock (+110)

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(755) Wright State at (756) Virginia: Total

Total Under 145.5 (-110)

Round #1 games with a total 128+ are 57-94 (36.5%) O/U

Virginia is 13-20-1 O/U this season with the #271 tempo and #354 defensive tempo.

The Cavs are 3-11 O/U as a Fav of -12 & higher.
Wright St's offense is #228 avg a shot every 17.9 seconds.

The Raiders are 3-8 O/U vs non-conf foes

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Who can forget the 2023 NCAA Tournament when #16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson stunned #1 seed Purdue 63-58? FDU became the second-ever 16-seed to beat a 1-seed. It marked the second consecutive year that a double-digit seed eliminated the Boilermakers. (St. Peter's beat them in 2022.)

The Boilermakers learned their lesson. They took care of business in the first round each of the past two seasons. Two years ago, they beat Grambling by 28, eking out a cover as a 27-point favorite. Last season, they won by 12, while laying eight points against High Point. This year provides another favorable first round opponent as Purdue is matched up against Queens University.

The Royals faced some decent teams this year as they played Auburn, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia and Villanova. The problem is that they lost those games by 41, 28, 38, 25 and 20, an average of 30.4 points per game. With memories of 2023 still fresh in the minds of Purdue fans, the Boilermakers should keep the pedal to the metal the whole way and win by 25+. *Good up to -25

Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper Of All-Time.

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