Free Sports Predictions MAR 13: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Winners of 10 straight and 20 of their past 21, Duke is running through the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils are ranked #1 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 4^th on offense. They’ve hung 100+ on their opponents on multiple occasions over the past few weeks, and Virginia simply doesn’t have the personnel to match up. The Cavs played Duke just 2 weeks ago, losing 77-51. Watch the Blue Devils roll to an ACC Tournament Championship today, picking up the cover in the process. Take Duke.

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41-22 (65%) All 4/5% sides (+76% PROFIT).

92-62 (60%) All 3%+ sides (+111% PROFIT).

121-93 (57%) Overall for (+80% PROFIT) last 214 client picks.

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We make a small play on the Wild in regulation as the number is a little higher than we expected. However it is deserved for the Wild. The Rangers have been playing some decent hockey of late. Even though the Rangers have won 3 straight going to Grand Casino Arena after the Wild just lost, is going to be a tall task to come out with a win. We cannot lay 235 on the ML so we do lay the regulation line. We give the Wild another shot after costing us one on Thursday. Minnesota have beat the Rangers at MSG already and we like our chances for a complete game from the Wild tonight.

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Team / player / injury chart

Game 1 / Game 2 back-to-back pattern

For FE Nagoya, recent two-game sets have been pretty swingy. Against Yokohama, they lost 85-86 and then 78-87, meaning Game 2 got a bit uglier offensively for them. Against San-en, they lost 91-95 and then 69-91, a much lower-scoring and much worse Game 2. Against Ryukyu, they lost 85-88 and then won 73-61, another clear drop in total scoring from Game 1 to Game 2. The working pattern is that FE Nagoya’s Game 2 has often trended lower-scoring and more adjustment-heavy, not looser.

For Kawasaki, the same-opponent pattern is also messy but generally supports the idea that Game 1 is the cleaner raw read. Against SR Shibuya they won 81-79 and then lost 58-73, a sharp drop in Game 2 offense. Against Ryukyu they lost 55-82 and then 77-91, with Game 2 offense improving but still not enough to flip the result. Against Shiga they won 84-72 and then lost 77-80, which again shows the second game getting more volatile and less predictable. So for this matchup, Game 1 is the place I trust baseline team quality more than Game 2 adjustment chaos.

Last 10 overall form

FE Nagoya has been stumbling. Their recent result set includes losses to Ryukyu, losses to Yokohama, losses to San-en, and the March 11 loss to Nagoya D, with fewer stabilizing wins than you’d want from a home favorite. Kawasaki’s broader season is worse, but their last chunk has at least included wins over Shiga and a more competitive mix than their full-season record suggests. That said, Kawasaki still comes in at 10-32, and its season-long defense remains a serious problem at 84.1 points allowed per game.

Player vs. player matchups

over 160.5:

Both teams’ season profiles point to a number right around or slightly above this line. Kawasaki averages 75.5 points scored and 84.1 allowed, while FE Nagoya averages 80.5 scored and 83.1 allowed. That’s the classic recipe for a total that can drift into the low 160s without anybody turning into a flamethrower wizard..

Kawasaki’s defense is the fattest target in the matchup. They just gave up 89 to Gunma on March 11, and FE Nagoya does not need elite efficiency to do its part if Kawasaki keeps leaking points at that level..

Game 1 helps the over case more than Game 2. In same-opponent back-to-backs, the second game is often where pace and shot quality get strangled by adjustments. Game 1 is usually the more “honest” version of each team’s baseline offense before coaches start fiddling with every knob like caffeinated goblins. That matters here because FE Nagoya and Kawasaki both have recent two-game sets where Game 2 became uglier or less efficient.

The recent head-to-head history is not screaming under. The last four meetings were 82-73, 88-77, 73-66, and 94-80. Two of those four cleared 160.5, and one landed at 155, so the matchup history shows this pairing can get into the right neighborhood when Nagoya controls the game and Kawasaki contributes enough.

Nagoya’s home/record context and Kawasaki’s road context also support an over path through game script. FE Nagoya are 6-15 home and Kawasaki at 5-12 away, which is not directly a total stat, but it suggests neither side is especially good at imposing comfortable control. Sloppy stretches, late fouling, and loose defensive possessions become more plausible in games between flawed teams.

The clean over script is:
FE Nagoya gets into the mid-80s, Kawasaki reaches the high 70s.
Something like 84-78 or 85-77 gets you there.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

The Canucks managed to eke out a s/o victory over the Predators on Thursday. However, they haven't won two games in a row since before Christmas. Off four straight losses, the Kraken are coming in hungry. They've beaten the Canucks in five of the past six h2h meetings, both in 2026. With much tougher opponents (Florida and Tampa) on deck, the Kraken need to take advantage of this favorable matchup. They will. Play Seattle. *good at -150 or better

Ben Burns is the #1 Basketball Handicapper of All-Time

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

West Ham vs Man City
EPL, Saturday, 4pm ET

Play: Under 3 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -105
Line Parameter: Line good to -120

West Ham are +365 underdogs at home, the Draw is at +320 and Man City are -145 favourites in the road, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total at 3.

West Ham fighting to avoid relegation, currently sitting inside the red zone with 28 points, as many as Nottingham above them (who are in between their Europa League knockouts) and both teams 1 point behind Tottenham, who play Liverpool this weekend and against Nottingham next week. So West Ham would definitely fight for some points vs Man City, who also lost by 3-0 to Real Madrid mid-week and now have to overturn a 3-goal deficit at home next Tuesday.

West Ham are currently on a 4-1 run to the Under 2.5 Goals in league play. Man City are on a 14-2 run to the Under 3.5 Goals in the EPL and I think they will just want to spend as few resources as possible in this game, as they have a huge match coming up against Real Madrid.

For what it's worth, West Ham's coach Espirito Santo (which by the way literally translates to Holy Spirit), has faced Man City's Pep Guardiola more than any other manager in his career, with W4 D1 L8. Each of the last 6 H2H between these two coaches finished with 3 goals or fewer, and 4 of 6 went to the Under 2.5. This is a match-up that usually produces goals, but this time around it looks an awful lot like a careful match between these two.

The Play is Under 3 Goals (-105)

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Chelsea vs Newcastle
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET

Play: Over 4.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Line good to -135

Chelsea are -120 favourites at home, the Draw at +330 and Newcastle are +285 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 0.75, or 0.5, it keeps moving, and the Total at 3.25

Both teams coming off mid-week matches in the Champions League knockouts, and they both have the second legs to play next week, so don't expect them to play like they usually do here.

Chelsea were holding on for a draw away at PSG but fell apart in the second half and eventually lost by 5-2, they now need kind of a miracle in order to go through.

Newcastle did extremely well when they hosted Barcelona, they eventually took the lead at the 86th minute but conceded a late penalty kick at the 6th minute of stoppage time for a 1-1 draw. Now they have to go to Barcelona and avoid the loss if they want to have a chance to go through.

Can't go anywhere near sides or totals here, this is an extremely volatile match that could really go anywhere, no result would surprise me, really.

One thing has been constant in recent H2Hs, and that's cards, with the reverse fixture producing 9 cards, and 8/6/9/4/6/11 in L/3 seasons.

Referee Paul Tierney isn't the best referee for cards out there, but this is a strange game and only cards come to mind.

The Play is Over 4.5 Cards (-125)

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Arsenal vs Everton
EPL, Saturday, 11:30am ET

Play: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

Arsenal are -270 favourites at home, the Draw at +370 and Everton are +940 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 1.25 and the Total at 2.5

I told you guys in the Champions League video that that +750 on Leverkusen to Qualify over Arsenal was too much. Also gave you Leverkusen +1 AND the 1-1 Correct Score (+600) on my Twitter (that you can find below). Arsenal are playing in 4 competitions and there is absolutely NO way they can be good in all 4. My personal estimate is that their priority is the EPL, and we saw them barely avoiding the loss mid-week thanks to a late penalty kick.

Now back home to face Everton, who are playing really good soccer this season, currently sitting 8th with 43 points, and just 5 points outside the top-5 spots that grant tickets to the European competitions next season. Much like last season, extra European spots might open up for England depending on who wins their domestic Cups and whether any English team will win the Champions, Europa or the Conference League. So Everton are hoping, and they've actually been better on the road than they've been at home, grabbing 24 points away from home on a W7 D3 L4 record, which is actually the 3rd best.

Kings of the Unders in the EPL this season, with 19-10 to the Under 2.5 Goals and an average of 2.3 goals/match, and also 10-4 to the Under 2.5 Goals on the road with an average of 1.9 goals/match.

H2Hs usually have very few goals, with the reverse fixture and both H2Hs last season going Under 2.5 Goals, and also 5 of L/7 went to the Under.

Strange match this one, as Arsenal also have the second leg at home vs Leverkusen coming up, this looks like a slow game to me but I haven't really kept a close eye on Everton this season, so I am just guessing as to how they will approach this match.

The Under 2.5 Goals is -115, and could be the best way to bet this match.

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Gillian Robertson to win by decision (+175)

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