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Joe Raineri
NBA Basketball
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So this Denver team blew a double digit lead in the 3rd quarter and allowed 70 points in the 2H to lose to the Clippers last night. They have now lost 5 of 7 games this month and are on the 2nd of a back to back vs a rested and hungry Portland team. Jamal Murray sounds like he could be out tonight and there could be more. All Denvers starters had to play at least 34 minutes or more last night. Over their last 10 games they are 26th in defense. They are allowing points to all levels of teams and can't stop a nose bleed right now. Meanwhile, Portland has played 7 straight to the OVER and have their full complement of weapons ready to make a run at a post season birth. The Trail Blazers won four of five prior to the All Star Break and Deni Avdija says his back doesn't hurt anymore. Denver can't be trusted unfortunately at this point and seem content on just coasting into the playoffs and hopefull get back Aaron Gordon sooner rather than later. The only way to go in this one is to back the better defensive team at home. Portland for the Win tonight.
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Bryan Power
German Bundesliga
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3% Bayer Leverkusen PK (9:30 AM ET): Fresh off winning 2-0 at Olympiacos in the first leg of the Champions League knockout playoff, Bayer Leverkusen now return to domestic matters and look to make it seven wins in the last eight matches across all competitions as they visit the capital city Saturday for a date with slumping Union Berlin. Despite their recent good form, Leverkusen are still only sitting 6th in the Bundesliga table. But only three points off the top four, a return to Champions League football next season is still very much in play. Kasper Hjulmand’s side has also progressed to the semifinal of the DFB Pokal.
I am always a bit wary when a team is coming off mid-week European competition. But in this instance, it’s difficult to see Leverkusen not taking advantage of Union Berlin’s recent poor form. The host team has yet to win in 2026 with three draws and three losses in their six league matches. Last week’s 3-2 loss at Hamburg SV dropped Union into the bottom half of the table and they’re now only six points clear of the relegation playoff spot. While it would be a bit of a shock to see Union fall into the drop zone, manager Steffan Baumgart definitely seems to be on shaky ground with the club.
In three of their last four matches, Union have conceded at least three goals. Meanwhile, Leverkusen have conceded only two goals total during their seven-match unbeaten run, which also includes five clean sheets! Therefore, I’m quite surprised we can get Leverkusen at this price while also being protected in case of a draw. This match is taking place in between the two Champions League legs, but I just don’t see Leverkusen losing here. They beat Union 2-0 in the reverse, back in October. Looking at the Bundesliga table, there’s an obvious gap between the top six and the rest of the field this season. 3% Bayer Leverkusen PK (Play to -160)
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Drew Martin
College Basketball
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Backing Miami Ohio over Bowling Green as the home favorite. Game tips off at 5:30pm PT on CBS Sports Network. Miami OH is the only undefeated team left in college hoops sporting a (26-0) record on the season. The Redhawks have been money against the spread going (17-6) ATS. Plus, cashing in each of their last three games.
Bowling Green has lost three straight vs Miami OH and did not look good last time out vs Kent State. They have really struggled shooting the basketball and lost the first time around vs MIA OH by double digits. This one is likely a similar outcome. This one just missed the Friday client card, for the free pick- Lay the wood with Miami Ohio.
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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After a SU loss to Missouri earlier in the week, things don’t get any easier for Vanderbilt as Tennessee comes rolling into town winners of 7 of their past 8. You won’t find the Vols listed as underdogs very often, as they rank #1 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They’re 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency and will shut you down at that end of the floor. While the Commodores have good metrics overall, Vandy isn’t a particularly good rebounding team and they don’t warrant laying chalk in this one. Take Tennessee.
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Ross Benjamin
NBA Basketball
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Memphis seen a combined average of 123.5 points per game scored in the first half of their last 4 contests. The Grizzlies will be playing just their 3rd game in 10 days. They played 5-0 over the first half total at home when playing in their 4th game or fewer over the previous 10 days.
They'll be facing a Utah team that averaged 65.0 points scored during the first half of their last 4 games. During their 35 conference games this season, Utah has seen a combined average of 122.0 points scored during first half action.
All NBA home teams with a first half total of 116.0 or greater that allowed their last 2 opponents to shoot 50% or better on each occasion, and both teams involved in the match have a season free throw percentage of 79% or better, resulted in those games playing 27-4 (87.1%) over the first half total.
Bet this game to go over the first half total of 116.0 or lower.
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NBA 8-3 (73%) L11 & All Sports 15-5 (75%) L20: $25.00
Friday 3* Anti-Public Market BusterRoss "The Boss" Benjamin has an NBA point-spread winner on Friday that will be going against public money. His detailed analysis will tell you exactly why you'll be in the minority of NBA bettors that will cash a winning ticket on this matchup. Ross cashed an easy NBA 2* winner last night on the Pac ...
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Marco D'Angelo
College Basketball
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Knee‑jerk reaction is to back Purdue in a bounce‑back spot off a loss. You also have the revenge angle, with Purdue looking to atone for an earlier loss at Indiana. But I’m looking the other way and taking Indiana, and here’s why.
Purdue is coming off an emotional home loss to No. 1 Michigan, a game that was supposed to be a statement opportunity and ended up a gut punch. This is the kind of situation where a team can “lose the same game twice” if they’re not careful, coming in flat and a bit deflated. The market has also, in my view, over‑corrected for both the revenge and bounce‑back narrative: Purdue closed -4.5 at Indiana and lost, and now they’re -12 here.
In Indiana’s last game, they were only +8.5 at Illinois, a team ahead of Purdue in the Big Ten that just beat Purdue, yet we’re being asked to lay 3.5 more with Purdue in this spot. On top of that, this matchup is sandwiched between Michigan and Michigan State on Purdue’s schedule, an easy look‑ahead/letdown combination. I expect Purdue to win the game, but I see it playing out much tighter than the 12‑point spread suggests.
TAKE INDIANA
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Tokyo Brandon
NCAA Mens Baseball
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Auburn vs Kansas State at 7:00 p.m. CT on Feb 20 in Arlington.
What I’m keying on (pitcher form • bats • bullpen)
Likely starters (early listing): Jake Marciano vs James Guyette.
Marciano form: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K in his Auburn debut.
Guyette form: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K on Opening Day.
Batter form (tiny-sample warning, but still info):
Auburn team line: .291 AVG / .378 OBP / .396 SLG (OPS .774).
K-State team line: .396 AVG / .522 OBP / .649 SLG (OPS 1.171), and opponents’ staff ERA in their first four games was 15.19 (so the numbers are “hot,” but also schedule-inflated).
Bullpen / staff quality (so far):
Auburn staff: 2.83 ERA, 56 K, 11 BB in 35 IP (excellent K/BB).
K-State staff: 4.76 ERA, 40 K, 14 BB in 34 IP (more traffic, more volatility).
Projection:
Given (1) a starting pitching edge toward Auburn if it’s Marciano vs Guyette, and (2) Auburn’s staff/bullpen profile looking steadier, but (3) K-State’s bats being legitimately dangerous (even with some inflation), I land at:
Auburn win probability: 58% (proj. odds -138)
Kansas State win probability: 42% (proj. odds +138)
Market comparison + value (your book odds)
Book: Auburn -130, Kansas State +100
Team | Book odds | Book implied % | My win % | My fair odds | Edge (pp) | EV per $100 stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auburn | -130 | 56.52% | 58.00% | -138 | +1.48 | +$2.62 |
Kansas State | +100 | 50.00% | 42.00% | +138 | -8.00 | -$16.00 |
Notes:
The two-sided line has ~6.52% overround (vig). No-vig “true” market is about 53.06% Auburn / 46.94% KSU from those prices.
Auburn -130 is a small positive-EV play only if you buy Auburn closer to ~58% (or higher). If lineups change (starter scratch, weather, etc.), this can flip fast.
Pick: Auburn
Value side: Auburn ML -130 (small), no value on KSU +100 at my number.
Starting pitching edge (if Marciano goes): Marciano’s debut line is nasty—5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. That’s the profile you want in a moneyline spot: miss bats, don’t hand out freebies.
Guyette’s Opening Day was solid-but-hittable: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K.Auburn’s staff is built to travel (K/BB + run prevention): Through Feb 17, Auburn’s pitching staff is at 2.83 ERA with 56 K vs 11 BB in 35.0 IP. That kind of strike-throwing plus swing-and-miss plays anywhere—especially in a neutral-site MLB park.
K-State’s biggest “weak link” is the part Auburn can punish: Even in a very positive K-State weekend recap, the note is blunt: starting pitching has the most room to improve, and (outside their best start) their starters have had trouble going clean/deep.
Auburn’s patient/slug-capable bats don’t need to be perfect if they can get into the middle innings with a lead.Game context favors pitching/defense over “home vibes”: This is at Globe Life Field as part of the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series—neutral site, not a true K-State home game.
Neutral site tends to reduce cheap “crowd momentum” variance and puts more weight on the stuff/strike-throwing edge.Price isn’t outrageous for the edge you’re buying: -130 implies ~56.5%. With Marciano confirmed, Auburn’s “pitching-first” profile makes it easier to justify them in the high-50s than it would be for a pure offense-driven favorite.
One big caveat (because baseball is chaos in a trench coat): if Auburn doesn’t start Marciano, or if K-State can line up their best multi-inning reliever early, the “Auburn ML” case gets thinner fast..
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a play on DEN.
The Nuggets are a slight favorite in Portland tonight, playing on no rest. The dreaded back to back situation has not been an issues for Denver this season. The Nuggets are 7-4 in the second game of a back to back, after going 12-4 in games on no rest last year. They are 28-11 on no rest over the last three seasons. After a week long layoff over the All Star break, the rust versus rest equation may actually favor Denver here. The Nuggets also have a far better record on the road than at home. Coming off a loss at LA, I love Denver in this spot.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Steve Merril
College Basketball
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Miami Ohio returns home still unbeaten (26-0) after surviving a road trip to UMass. The RedHawks will now face a Bowling Green team they already beat on the road (93-83) back in late December. The interesting thing about that first meeting was the closing spread. Miami Ohio went to post as 6.5-point underdogs; the largest underdog they’ve been all season. Now in the rematch with all the pressure on them to stay undefeated, the RedHawks are posted between -8 and -8.5 point favorites. Bowling Green has played decent on the road with a 5-5 SU record on the season. The Falcons are a sticky team that doesn’t get blown out all too often, so they can definitely hang in this game for the full 40 minutes. The pressure on Miami Ohio intensifies in each game going forward, so take the points with the road underdog in this game on Friday night.
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any 5% Top-Rated Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Ralph Michaels
College Basketball
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(893) Bowling Green at (894) Miami Ohio: 1H Team Total
1H Miami Ohio Total Over 38.5 (-102)
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DON'T MISS OUT...CBB 5% MAX ARE 7-2 (78%)!: $35.00
CBB 5% ARE 7-2 (78%) THIS SEASON! • CBB ML 5% ARE 2-0 (100%) & 6-1 (86%) •• Ralph went 1-0 on Wednesday, with his Thursday play pending, raising his College Hoops run to 37-19 (67%)! •• Ralph's overall all-sports run is 39-20 (66%) & 76-48 (61%)! •• Ralph has posted 26 of 37 (70%) winning days when he has a CBB releas ...
Ralph Michaels College Basketball Special
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Ralph Michaels is putting together a strong College Basketball season, delivering +57.2 units, 59.7% Winning Percentage, and 14.6% ROI. His edge has been even more pronounced on his biggest opinions, going 7-2 on 5% Best Bets for +23.75 units and a 52.8% ROI.This College Basketball-only package includes every regular-season and postseason game Ralp ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any 5% Top-Rated Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angles:
1) Play AGAINST road underdogs of more than +11 after allowing at least 120 points in 2 straight games if their opponent led their last 2 games by at least 10 points at the half.
Applies to Dallas.
13-3 ATS (81.2%) since the 2021 season, cashing by an average of 9.4 points!
2) Play ON home favorites of more than 11 points but less than 18 points if they're coming off a home win, playing with 3 or more days rest.
Applies to Minnesota.
8-0 ATS since the 2021 season, cashing by an average of 7.8 points!
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27-6 82% ANGLE | 4% CBB TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant is #1 ALL-TIME at WagerTalk in profit from college basketball totals at 224.14 units.On Friday, DB has a huge 4% CBB Top Total that is backed by a powerful situational angle that has gone a money-making 27-6 for 82% winners, covering the number by a wide average margin of 9.8 points. Details INSIDE.When a total angle wins at that elit ...
#1 AGAIN | 4% NBA TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA.#1 in NBA profit this season: +85.29 units#1 in NBA profit last season: +84 uniits#1 in NBA totals profit since last season: +82.61 unitsTonight’s huge play is not backed by a situational angle, but rather Dwayne's breakdown of the previous meeting between these two teams this season.This line will ...
Dwayne Bryant — NBA Through the Finals Special
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At the NBA All-Star Break, Dwayne Bryant is dominating the board at +81.29 units with a 61.6% winning percentage (69-43) and a 20.1% ROI.His biggest opinions have been flawless, going 4-0 on NBA 5% Best Bets for +20 units and a 100% ROI.Lock in all of Dwayne Bryant’s NBA plays through the NBA Finals, including every 5% Best Bet, through a potenti ...
Dwayne Bryant
College Basketball
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The Under is supported by a matchup defined by defensive structure and controlled tempo rather than offensive explosiveness.
Saint Peter’s plays at a deliberate pace and emphasizes half-court defense, allowing just 68.5 points per game while consistently forcing opponents into lower-percentage shooting situations and longer possessions.
Even though Iona operates slightly faster, their scoring efficiency has been inconsistent, and they face a Saint Peter’s defense that limits clean perimeter looks and ranks strongly at disrupting offensive rhythm.
Neither team profiles as an elite shooting group, with Saint Peter’s converting just over 41 percent from the field and Iona relying heavily on methodical half-court execution rather than transition scoring.
The projected tempo, blending adjusted tempos of 66.0 and 68.8, points toward a mid-sixty possession game, which naturally suppresses total scoring opportunities.
With both teams comfortable grinding possessions, minimizing easy baskets, and forcing opponents to execute deep into the shot clock, the expected game flow favors extended defensive sequences and modest scoring runs, creating a strong path for the combined score to stay Under the posted total.
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Dwayne Bryant is #1 ALL-TIME at WagerTalk in profit from college basketball totals at 224.14 units.On Friday, DB has a huge 4% CBB Top Total that is backed by a powerful situational angle that has gone a money-making 27-6 for 82% winners, covering the number by a wide average margin of 9.8 points. Details INSIDE.When a total angle wins at that elit ...
#1 AGAIN | 4% NBA TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA.#1 in NBA profit this season: +85.29 units#1 in NBA profit last season: +84 uniits#1 in NBA totals profit since last season: +82.61 unitsTonight’s huge play is not backed by a situational angle, but rather Dwayne's breakdown of the previous meeting between these two teams this season.This line will ...
Dwayne Bryant — NBA Through the Finals Special
Was $399.00 Now $349.00
At the NBA All-Star Break, Dwayne Bryant is dominating the board at +81.29 units with a 61.6% winning percentage (69-43) and a 20.1% ROI.His biggest opinions have been flawless, going 4-0 on NBA 5% Best Bets for +20 units and a 100% ROI.Lock in all of Dwayne Bryant’s NBA plays through the NBA Finals, including every 5% Best Bet, through a potenti ...
Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Indiana takes the floor off a 112-105 loss to the Wizards, but NBA road favorites coming off a loss are 1708-1407-58 ATS (55%) since 2005. In contrast, Washington enters off a 112-105 win over the Pacers, which is significant because favorites arriving off a loss are 897-709-28 ATS (55.9%) versus opponents coming off a win, including 424-317-11 ATS (57.2%) since 2015. Similarly, since 1996, NBA road favorites coming off an upset loss are 286-200-9 ATS (58.8%) versus opponents entering off an upset win, including 111-75-5 ATS (59.7%) since 2018. However, the primary reasons for this investment are 68-33-1 ATS (67.3%) and 31-10 ATS (75.6%) revenge systems of mine that date to 1989 and invest on certain road teams with immediate revenge. The latter situation is implicated by the fact that the Pacers are seeking to avenge back-to-back losses to Washington and has covered the spread by an average margin of +5.1 points per game. Finally, NBA road favorites of fewer than five points are 195-134-7 ATS (59.3%) versus opponents with limited or no rest since 1997, including 44-23-1 ATS (65.7%) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. Take Indiana as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, February 20.
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OSKEIM'S HUGE NBA OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY - 62% OVERALL RUN!: $25.00
*Red-Hot 62% All-Sports Run; +18 Units of Profit!*Documented 10-4 (71.4%) on All Top-Rated Plays!On Friday, Jeff Keim is featuring a HUGE NBA Off Shore Steam Play with B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! This WIRE-TO-WIRE WINNER is also supported by powerful 89-38 ATS and 15-4 ATS winning angles! Jeff is on a TORRID 62% Overall Run (+18 Units of N ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any 5% Top-Rated Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Hat-Trick All-Access Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every hockey play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — including NHL selections, College Hockey, and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49.That’s only $16.33 per day for every premium hockey release your handicapper posts. You’ll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you ge ...
Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Cleveland arrives off a 112-84 win over the Nets last night, while the Hornets suffered a 105-101 loss to the Rockets 24 hours earlier. Since 2001, NBA teams playing the second leg of a back-to-back in games with totals that are higher than both of their previous totals are 255-186-15 to the Over (57.8%), including 61-35-4 OVER (63.5%) since 2016, going over by an average margin of +5.0 points per game. Similarly, since 1990, NBA games between unrested teams are 642-490-38 to the Over (56.78%) when the total is greater than their previous contest, including 122-70-8 OVER (63.5%) since 2016. Let’s also note that unrested teams like the Cavaliers and Hornets are 177-132-17 to the Over (57.3%) if they had five or more days of rest before their last game. Finally, Cleveland has won six straight games, and non-division favorites of greater than six points coming off three or more consecutive wins are 417-330-28 to the Over (55.8%) versus opponents entering off a loss, including 281-205-16 OVER (57.8%) since 2016. Take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, February 20.
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OSKEIM'S HUGE NBA OFF SHORE STEAM PLAY - 62% OVERALL RUN!: $25.00
*Red-Hot 62% All-Sports Run; +18 Units of Profit!*Documented 10-4 (71.4%) on All Top-Rated Plays!On Friday, Jeff Keim is featuring a HUGE NBA Off Shore Steam Play with B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it! This WIRE-TO-WIRE WINNER is also supported by powerful 89-38 ATS and 15-4 ATS winning angles! Jeff is on a TORRID 62% Overall Run (+18 Units of N ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any 5% Top-Rated Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Hat-Trick All-Access Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every hockey play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — including NHL selections, College Hockey, and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49.That’s only $16.33 per day for every premium hockey release your handicapper posts. You’ll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you ge ...
Bryan Power
NBA Basketball
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If this matchup sounds familiar, it's because these two teams just met last night here in D.C. The Wizards won (as 2.5-point underdogs) 125-112, thanks to a 14-0 run in the fourth quarter. That result sets us up with an incredible betting angle.
Over the past three seasons, the Wizards are a stunning 1-36 SU on the second night of a back to back. They've lost 14 straight in this situation including an 0-9 record so far in 2025-26. The Wiz are the ONLY team in the league that has failed to win at least once on the second night of a back to back this season.
While the Pacers are going to be short-handed here, they should have enough professional pride to want to avoid losing B2B games to the Wizards.
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TWO 4% FRIDAY BEST BETS ~ WHITE HOT 16-4 CBB RUN!: $29.00
#1 ALL SPORTS IN FEBRUARY (68% RECORD!) | #1 BASKETBALL RECORD IN FEBRUARY (25-8 RUN!)MY WORD! Bryan Power "brought out the broom" AGAIN in CBB as he went a PERFECT 2-0 Thursday with UT Arlington -4 and Montana/Idaho State Under 150.5!With that, BP is now on a ***WHITE HOT 16-4 RUN*** in College Hoops! Here are TWO 4% BEST BETS for Friday ...
Bryan Power — NBA Through the Finals Special
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At the NBA All-Star Break, Bryan Power is up +31.32 units with a 65.8% winning percentage (25-13) and a 26.5% ROI.Lock in all of Bryan Power’s NBA plays through the NBA Finals, including every 5% Best Bet, through a potential Game 7 on Friday, June 19, 2026.For a limited time, get NBA through the Finals for $349.Records accurate as of 2/18/2026.
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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When Cam Thomas was waived by Brooklyn it left many scratching their heads because he possesses the talent to at least be apart of a rotation in the NBA. The Bucks came calling and so far they haven’t regretted it with the shooting guard averaging 16.6 points in three games with the team so far. Milwaukee opens up the second half of their season in New Orleans taking on a Pelicans team that allows the most points per game to shooting guards on the season and sit 27th in defensive efficiency. Thomas actually has a game under his belt at New Orleans this season scoring 16 points off the bench for Brooklyn back in mid January. We’re going to take Thomas to get over 16.5 points and actually like if he comes off the bench still going against a Pelicans second unit that includes Karlo Matkovic, Bryce McGowens and Jeremiah Fears which aren’t exactly household names. When the Bucks and Pelicans met on Feb 4 Milwaukee scored 141 points and although Thomas wasn’t apart of the team yet, guards Gary Trent Jr. and Kevin Porter Jr. combined to score 31 points off the bench. With Giannis Antetokounmpo and Myles Turner already set to miss tonight’s action, it may be smart for Milwaukee to lean on their guard play more so which includes Thomas so let’s take him to get over 16.5 points in New Orleans against the Pelicans tonight.
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**20-8/71.4% TY!** NBA/CBB 2-FOR-1 SUPER SWEEPER!
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The GoldSheet finished Thursday at 2-1, though the loss unfortunately came on their biggest play. They bounce back strongly on Friday with two standout selections: a sharp college basketball side and another winner from their sizzling NBA totals run. Building off yesterday's success, their NBA O/U plays are now an impressive 20-8 this year (+4 ...
THE NBA STAT SHEET IS BACK!
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THE GOLDSHEET NBA STAT SHEET FOR FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 20!Overall records and records for the last two weeks. Both overall as well as Home/Away splits!Including: SU, ATS. O/U, Points For & Against, plus the Average Line and Total!
Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(523) Indiana Pacers at (524) Washington Wizards: Spread
Indiana Pacers -1.5 (-115)
System Performance:
Away teams with no rest off a loss, as a favorite or underdog of +2.5, facing an opponent off a win as an underdog, has a strong historical record of 89-41 (69%) ATS since 2011.
Indiana Pacers Performance:
Recent Game Performance: The Pacers lost their last game 112-105 as a 2.5-point favorite, indicating they are coming off a loss, which fits the system criteria well.
Washington Wizards Performance:
Recent Struggles: The Wizards are performing poorly with a 4-10 (28.6%) ATS record following a win, showing issues in maintaining competitive form after victories. They are also 2-7 (22.2%) ATS off a home win.
ATS Performance at Home with No Rest: At home, the Wizards have been particularly ineffective with a 1-5 ATS record when playing with no rest. This suggests they may struggle to maintain effectiveness in back-to-back game scenarios.
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FOUR #1'S! 20-5 (80%) NBA RUN!: $25.00
HOW HOT? >> NBA 20-5 (80%) >> #1 PROFIT TRIFECTA (YTD, L30 AND L365 DAYS) & #1 NBA L30 DAYS! Jeff is coming off a 1-1 Thursday and his red-hot NBA run continued post-All-Star Break - now 20-5 (80%).On NBA sides Jeff is 5-1 (83%) and 8-2 (80%)! Jeff is #1 year-to-date with a current all-sport run of 34-9 (79.1%)!Why not take adva ...
Jeff Michaels — NBA Through the Finals Special
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At the NBA All-Star Break, Jeff Michaels is on a heater at +70.17 units with a 60.9% winning percentage (53-34) and a 21.8% ROI.His NBA 5% Best Bets have added +23.15 units, hitting 69.2% (9-4) with a 35.6% ROI.Lock in all of Jeff Michaels’ NBA plays through the NBA Finals, including every 5% Best Bet, through a potential Game 7 on Friday, June 1 ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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Ralph Michaels
College Basketball
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(887) Va Commonwealth at (888) Saint Louis: Spread
Saint Louis -7.5 (-110)While VCA has won 10 straight, note that a Dog to +20 on at least a 10-game win streak is 35-58 (37.6%)!
St Louis is now 24-2 and they are coming off a loss at Rhode Island.
The Billikens are #2 and #1 NATIONALLY in KenPom's EffFG% while playing as the 5th fastest offensive tempo in the country.
In the first meeting St Louis won 71-62 as a 2-point dog.
At home the Bilikens are 11-4 ATS with 2 ATS L's as a 29.5 pt and 34.5 pt Fav.
VCU is 21-6 and they have only been a Dog 3 times (1-2 ATS) and they have played only one top 100 team in atrue road game.
VCU is off a 89-75 win but htey are 1-5 ATS after scoring 88+ pts.
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DON'T MISS OUT...CBB 5% MAX ARE 7-2 (78%)!: $35.00
CBB 5% ARE 7-2 (78%) THIS SEASON! • CBB ML 5% ARE 2-0 (100%) & 6-1 (86%) •• Ralph went 1-0 on Wednesday, with his Thursday play pending, raising his College Hoops run to 37-19 (67%)! •• Ralph's overall all-sports run is 39-20 (66%) & 76-48 (61%)! •• Ralph has posted 26 of 37 (70%) winning days when he has a CBB releas ...
Ralph Michaels College Basketball Special
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Ralph Michaels is putting together a strong College Basketball season, delivering +57.2 units, 59.7% Winning Percentage, and 14.6% ROI. His edge has been even more pronounced on his biggest opinions, going 7-2 on 5% Best Bets for +23.75 units and a 52.8% ROI.This College Basketball-only package includes every regular-season and postseason game Ralp ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any 5% Top-Rated Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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Purdue enters Friday in bounce back mode after losing to the #1 ranked team in the nation, but if you’ve watched the way they’ve been playing you can see that they certainly pass the eye test. The Boilermakers had won 4 straight previously including back to back BIG-10 road games, holding a 22 point 2nd half lead against Nebraska before a 78-57 beatdown at Iowa. They move the ball quickly and as effectively as any team in the nation, a big reason they rank 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Indiana was just blown out by 20 against Illinois and we can expect Matt Painter’s group to win by margin here. Take Purdue.
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CBB SAT PERFECT 100% (4-0) RUN! : $25.00
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Tokyo Brandon
College Basketball
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_________
Akron @ Ball State — snapshot tables (since 1/1/26 where applicable)
Category | Akron | Ball St. |
|---|---|---|
Points per game (since 1/1/26) | 82.7 | 64.0 |
Points allowed per game (since 1/1/26) | 72.8 | 72.4 |
Top 2 scorers (season leaders) | Tavari Johnson 20.3, Amani Lyles 14.6 | Davion Hill 12.7, Armoni Zeigler 12.1 |
Assist leader (season leader) | Tavari Johnson 5.2 apg | Armoni Zeigler 2.8 apg |
Top 2 rebounders (season leaders) | Amani Lyles 7.3, Eric Mahaffey 6.2 | Armoni Zeigler 4.9, Mason Jones 4.2 |
Injuries | Not listed in the sources captured here | Not listed in the sources captured here |
Score prediction + line breakdown
Projected score: Akron 78 – Ball State 62 (total 140)
That implies Akron -16 on a neutral-ish model, which is a hair stronger than -13.5, and a total meaningfully lower than 145.5.
Spread (-13.5)
My projected margin (+16) gives Akron a modest edge vs -13.5.
Key reason: Ball State’s offense has been stuck in the mud since Jan 1 (64.0 ppg), while Akron’s defense profile is strong (opponent shooting % allowed is excellent in the matchup stats).
bet: Akron -13.5
Trends & patterns since 1/1/26
Straight-up form + scoring shape
Akron (since Jan 1 sample): +9.8 average margin; 82.7 scored / 72.8 allowed
Ball State (since Jan 1 sample): -8.4 average margin; 64.0 scored / 72.4 allowed
The market generally prices Akron like a hammer (and they are), but big favorites can be “win comfortably, not cover” teams.
ATS (Against the Spread) since Jan 1
Akron ATS since Jan 1 sample: 5–8
Home ATS: 1–5; Away ATS: 4–3
Ball State ATS since Jan 1 sample: 5–7–1
Notably, they’ve had a couple of “live dog” covers (including at Akron), but they’re also capable of getting flattened.
O/U since Jan 1
Akron: 5 overs / 8 unders
Ball State: 3 overs / 9 unders / 1 push
TeamRankings situational trend snapshot also flags Ball State as a heavy-under team over larger samples (last 10 and home splits).
Home/away tendencies since Jan 1
Ball State at home (since Jan 1): 61.4 scored / 67.2 allowed (slow, grindy profile)
Akron on the road (since Jan 1): 77.6 scored / 69.6 allowed (defense travels)
Level of competition (context)
This is a MAC mismatch on paper: Akron is listed 21–5 (2nd MAC) vs Ball State 8–18 (13th MAC) in the odds capsule.
Ball State’s recent slate includes mostly conference opponents plus a buy-ish nonconference at UL Monroe; the broader results don’t suggest a hidden gear.
Player matchup breakdowns (paragraphs)
Akron’s whole thing is pressure + structure: if Tavari Johnson is allowed to run clean offense into early-clock looks, Ball State’s defense ends up defending multiple actions per possession, and the dam eventually cracks. Johnson also creates a foul-pressure problem—when the lead guard is both the scorer and the table-setter, the underdog’s rotations get stretched thin and rebounding suffers late.
Inside, Amani Lyles is the “make you pay for being small” lever. Ball State’s main rebounders (Zeigler/Jones) aren’t high-volume glass monsters by the numbers, so Akron can plausibly win extra possessions without even shooting lights-out. If Akron is consistently getting second chances, that’s where a -13.5 favorite cover is born.
For Ball State to be live, it’s basically a Davion Hill + Armoni Zeigler shot-making script: hit enough tough ones early to prevent the game from becoming a slow suffocation. The problem is the baseline scoring output since Jan 1 has been low, and Akron’s defense indicators (opponent shooting allowed) suggest those looks won’t be comfortable. Ball State can still “hang” via pace control (especially at home), which is exactly why the under can cash even if Akron wins comfortably.
Why I am betting Akron -13.5
Massive efficiency gap (the “this is why spreads exist” point): Akron’s offensive efficiency (~1.201) vs Ball State’s (~0.958) is a canyon, and Akron’s effective FG% (~58.8%) dwarfs Ball State’s (~46.0%). Teams that score that much more efficiently can build margin without needing a crazy pace.
Extra possessions edge (quiet spread-killer for the dog): Akron’s offensive rebound rate (~33.3%) vs Ball State’s (~23.5%) implies Akron is more likely to generate second-chance points. Second chances turn “up 9” into “up 15” fast.
Ball State’s defense is leaky where Akron is strong: Ball State allows a high opponent eFG% (~55.3%), while Akron shoots efficiently; that’s a friendly matchup for the favorite to score consistently (and avoid long droughts that create backdoor sweat).
Recent head-to-head baseline already favors Akron: On Jan 13, 2026, Akron beat Ball State 87–77 (10-point win) with Johnson/Lyles leading the way—so the matchup has already produced a comfortable Akron win even if it didn’t clear today’s number.
Akron’s inside scoring showed up in that meeting: Akron emphasized points in the paint (reported 24 of 37 in-lane points in that game writeup). If Ball State can’t hold up inside again, foul trouble/paint touches can balloon the margin.
Conference-tier gap (level of competition within the same league): Season context has Akron 21–5 and 12–1 in Mid-American Conference play, while Ball State is 8–18 and 3–10 in conference—this is the profile of a top-tier MAC team vs a bottom-tier MAC team.
Ball State “drought potential”: With Ball State’s low eFG% (~46%), they’re structurally prone to 3–5 minute dead stretches. Those stretches are exactly how favorites cover: one or two 10–0 runs and suddenly you’re covering without even shooting nuclear.
Market support is basically saying “Akron by ~two touchdowns”: Capsule shows Akron by about 14 (i.e., close to -13.5), so -13.5 isn’t fighting the broader consensus number.
Tiny “what can go wrong” (because backdoors are a law of nature): slower pace at Worthen Arena + late threes can keep the dog inside the number even in a no-doubt Akron win.
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5% MAX CBB PLAY | SCORCHING 14-5 ON 5% BETS | TOP CAPPER 3/5 Years | PLUS PROFIT 5/6 YEARS: $35.00
Don't miss Tokyo Brandon's rare 5% MAX college basketball play today – his strongest bet! Tokyo Brandon is scorching hot on a 14-5 run with 5% releases. He has delivered profits in 5 of the last 6 years at WagerTalk, finishing #1 in all-sports profit among 33 experts in 3 of the past 5 years (#4 in 2025 with +49 units). His proven domin ...
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Former MLB scout Tokyo Brandon spent 10 years evaluating talent for a Major League team. He’s also WagerTalk’s #1 all-sports profit capper in multiple years—including #1 in MLB profit in 2024 with massive units won. Don’t enter 2026 blindly—grab his exclusive Atlanta Braves 2026 Preview PDF for FREE. Inside you’ll get:2025 season recap ...
Jeff Michaels
Major League Baseball
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Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 78.5 wins
Offensive Improvements:
New Additions: The Pirates have significantly strengthened their lineup with the additions of Marcell Ozuna, Ryan O'Hearn, and Brandon Lowe. These players bring a mix of power and potential to an already developing team.
Brandon Lowe's Power: Coming off a season where he hit 31 home runs, Lowe stands out as a significant offensive weapon, suggesting he can help elevate the Pirates’ overall run production.
Ryan O'Hearn's Efficiency: O'Hearn’s best season in terms of wins above replacement (WAR) indicates his growing impact on both offense and defense, making him a valuable asset in the lineup.
Recent season: The Pirates have posted 76, 76 and 71wins the last 3 seasons so we are only asking then to improve by a handful of games.
Pitching Staff Potential:
Paul Skenes: The 23-year-old Cy Young winner leads the pitching staff, indicating that the Pirates have a top-tier arm to anchor their rotation. His presence alone can provide a considerable advantage in close games.
Ashcraft's Emerging Performance: At just 25 years old, Ashcraft’s potential to dominate, as evidenced by his solid 2.71 ERA and 1.6 WAR in limited innings last season, can add depth and reliability to the rotation.
Jared Jones' Situation: While Jones may miss the early portion of the season, his expected contributions upon return could further bolster the pitching staff and influence overall team performance.
Division Competitiveness:
The Brewers' Offseason: With the Brewers' lackluster offseason, the division may open up, allowing the Pirates a better opportunity to compete. Pittsburgh's improvements can create a more competitive environment in the division, making games against teams like Milwaukee crucial for standings and playoff considerations.
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At the NBA All-Star Break, Jeff Michaels is on a heater at +70.17 units with a 60.9% winning percentage (53-34) and a 21.8% ROI.His NBA 5% Best Bets have added +23.15 units, hitting 69.2% (9-4) with a 35.6% ROI.Lock in all of Jeff Michaels’ NBA plays through the NBA Finals, including every 5% Best Bet, through a potential Game 7 on Friday, June 1 ...
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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Mexico Liga de Ascenso :
Total Under 2.5 (-112)...(4%)
4% thru Under 2.5 (-125)
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Andy Lang
Mixed Martial Arts
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Smith has strong pedigree, discipline, and fight IQ. He’s fast and powerful but has shown a tendency to burn energy early. Harrell is undefeated with great cardio and a solid ground game. He weathered adversity in his last fight and finished late. If Smith fades late, Harrell could capitalize. Small sprinkle on the dog is justified, but you could wait and make a live bet here as I think Smith will start strong, the odds will get better on Harrell, then I expect Smith to fade the longer the fight goes.
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Kyle Anthony
Mixed Martial Arts
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Ramiz Brahimaj -130
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