Free Sports Predictions SEP 3: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Serie A - Lazio at Udinese

Game Thoughts: We spoke of Lazio and the turmoil with the fanbase and ultras prior to Round 1 and that we'd be looking to play them away from home more so than at home as 24K of the 27K season ticket holders didn't renew as a sign of defiance against the current ownership. That hasn't bled onto the field yet and they've started the season a perfect 2-0 with a couple 1-0 wins and fans are attending the away games instead and creating a home atmosphere. They take on an Udinese side off to a good start as well but they were outplayed in their opener which was a 1-1 draw and have wins in league and cup play against a couple of the minnows of the league. This is a step up. We'll grab the plus money here.

The play is Lazio +158

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EPL - Bournemouth at Newcastle United

Game Thoughts: Normally when looking at a prop of this sort, we're looking at analytics for both teams and specifically sides that are generating attempts on goal and shots on target along with xG numbers. Both fit it here. Bournemouth were somewhat unlucky not to get the win in the season opener at Man City but picked up a point last week against a tough Everton side. The chances were definitely there for all 3 points. Newcastle were unlucky in a season opening 2-2 draw at home as Liverpool were awarded a penalty in the 9th minute of injury time. They followed that up though with a 2-0 away win at Tottenham and under their new manager are playing some entertaining football. The last 4 meetings here at St. James Park has seen this prop hit each time.

The play is Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 -130

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EPL - Liverpool at Ipswich Town

Game Thoughts: Round 3 of the EPL season kicks off on Friday and while the price seems high it's likely not high enough here. Liverpool are in search of their first win of the season after a pair of come from behind 2-2 draws and get newly promoted side Ipswich here and this is a team I have pegged for a one and down season in the top flight. They kicked off their season with a win at home, scoring late against Sunderland but after a quick start against Man United they allowed 5 in a loss. That's closer to whate I'd expect to see in games against the top 6-8 Prem sides. There's the option of laying the handicap with Liverpool here and the -1.0 but allowing 4 goals thus far doesn't give me the confidence of a multi goal win and we'll keep it simplified here.

The play is Liverpool -198

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First-time head coach Rob Harley finds himself in the middle of a parlay, and every team he bet on is losing 17-3 in the first quarter. Harley has been dealt a brutal hand as he makes his head coaching debut with Northern Illinois. He arrived in DeKalb under the assumption that he would be serving as Thomas Hammock's defensive coordinator, but Hammock took a job with the Seattle Seahawks in late February and Harley was given the interim title. Because Hammock didn't leave until after the Seahawks won the Super Bowl, that puts the Huskies' program about three months behind schedule when it comes to recruiting, budgeting and building a staff. Northern Illinois is not expecting to return a single starter from last year's defense. Oh yeah hey Rob, by the way, we're also moving conferences. The Huskies have left the comfortable surroundings of the MAC in favor of the new-look Mountain West where Northern Illinois will be facing some tough travel spots. If Harley can turn this situation into chicken salad, then he deserves some major kudos. We certainly understand the hesitation with backing Iowa as this big of a favorite, but this is a Huskies team that failed to score more than ten points five times last season. We'll be rooting for Coach Harley this season because he was dealt a tough hand, but he doesn't have much to work with at the moment. Play Iowa

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Milwaukee is 10-1-3 this year in 1st 5 Inning wagers when Logan Henderson is on the mound. In his L3 starts he has allowed just 3 runs over 20 innings of work. His K/BB ratio is 17-3 over those 20 innings. Look for Henderson to out pitch Cubs starter Kevin Gausman.

TAKE MILWAUKEE 1st 5 Innings

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This is a strong value spot on the young prospect Klaudia Sygula. She is still early in her UFC climb and the tape already shows a fighter who is getting better every time out. Her striking looks sharper, pace is higher and she's far more composed. The move to American Top Team has clearly helped. She is now working with a deep room and that extra level of daily competition has rounded out her game. Sygula’s recent output is the biggest reason this plus money number is interesting. Over her last two fights she has become a high-volume pressure fighter who can keep a hard pace for 15 minutes. She landed 101 significant strikes against Irina Alekseeva and then jumped that number to 151 against Priscila Cachoeira. That kind of activity matters in women’s MMA. Judges reward the fighter who is moving forward and throwing. Even when every shot is not clean the optics still favor the aggressor. Sygula has also begun mixing in wrestling so she is not so one-dimensional anymore. That added layer makes her harder to gameplan for and gives her another way to steal minutes if the striking stalls. Nora Cornolle is on the other side of that timeline. She is 36 and the last stretch of her UFC run has been a grind. She still has decent kickboxing and can be dangerous in the clinch with elbows and knees. That part of her game is serviceable.... the problem is everything around it. She is a low-volume striker and win or lose her fights tend to stay tight. She rarely separates herself in any round and often scrapes by or comes up just short. Across her 6 UFC appearances she has never landed more than 55 significant strikes in a fight. That is a massive gap next to Sygula’s last two outings. In a close women’s bantamweight decision that difference in activity can decide the scorecards by itself. There is also the injury concern. Cornolle is coming back from the Joselyn Edwards fight where she was slammed on her shoulder and later needed surgery. That fight was only about six months ago. That is a short window for surgery, healing, rehab and a full training camp. I believe she took this fight to get on a card fighting in front of her home country in France. At 36 and sitting 1-3 in her last 4 fights she does not have much margin left. Another loss here would put her UFC roster spot in serious danger. That is why the value sits with the underdog. Sygula is younger, improving quickly and has a large volume edge. Cornolle still has experience and home crowd juice but the trajectory and the output numbers both lean the other way. In this spot the rising prospect with youth and momentum is the side we're backing.

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FREE PICK on Seattle Mariners (ML) || Good until -225.

Pitching Matchup: Jack Perkins/Kade Anderson (Action).

After winning back to back games, the Mariners have a bit of hope. They enter this series 4.5 games back of a wildcard spot, meaning this series is crucial. Jack Perkins starts for the A's. Since May, he's posted an earned run average above 6.00 in every single month. The rookie, Kade Anderson starts for Seattle. Even though he hasn't pitched his best quite yet, I like him to have a strong start against an injured A's team. Go with Seattle.

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Total Over 7.5 (-115) - should close 8, and would be Premium move @ O7 thru -125

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This is a free play on Nico Over 40.5 rush yards.

I am not a fan of Nico, I am still shocked that he sabotaged his career with the stunt he pulled at Tennessee. That said, he got lucky that UCLA hired Bob Chesney, and now he will have a lot more weapons around him, and should be able to have a solid season. He ran for 40+ yards in four of the first five games last season. Cal has a pretty good secondary, so he may need to extend drives with his legs here on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Strong lean here. If I end up adding this for clients I will note here.

Discussed this one on Total Bases in detail.

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(308997) Bethune Cookman at (308998) Central Florida: Total (Quick Analysis Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 57.5 (-108)

Date/Time: Sept 3 2026 7:00 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Bethune-Cookman @ Central Florida

Fact that Florida-International transfer QB Keyone Jenkins is the backup to starter and James Madison transfer Alonza Barnett gives Central Florida strong potential to continue scoring is HC Scott Frost pulls some starters in the 4th quarter. Each has dual threat capabilities and while Barnett had a far more consistent, talented & high scoring James Madison offense...Jenkins directed FIU to their share of high scoring outings as well. Bethune-Cookman defense last season allowed 40 scores on 42 of their opponents trips into the red-zone. Difference maker here could be when UCF transitions to defensive backups where the Bethune-Cookman offense which averaged 410.5 ty & 29.7 ppg last season (#30 FCS overall). They have a pair of capable QB's who battled throughout the summer for the starting job so figure they can contribute enough in this spot. Tempo is likely to be rapid creating enough opportunities and Knights have immense quick strike ability. "Bounce House" on opening night should see the scoreboard combine to hit 58+.

PLAY: Bethune-Cookman-Central Florida OVER 57.5

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Good to UN56 -115

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Tulsa +13.5 (-105)

Tulsa went into Stillwater last season and pulled off a 19-12 upset over Oklahoma State, their first victory there since the 1950s. That loss ultimately led to Mike Gundy's demise. Tulsa did not just win a rivalry game, they ended an era.

Golden Hurricane head coach Tre Lamb was honored at a basketball game shortly after, took the microphone, and boldly promised the home crowd another win over Oklahoma State this year.

Oklahoma State responded by overhauling the program. They brought in Eric Morris from North Texas and added 92 new players, leaving only 25 returners from last year's squad. That is not just a simple roster rebuild, it is a completely different team. Virtually none of the newcomers experienced last year's loss to Tulsa, meaning any narrative surrounding revenge carries little weight in that locker room.

Tulsa offers complete continuity, returning its starting quarterback and proven lead running back. Morris should prove to be a strong hire long term, but this new Oklahoma State roster is receiving too much early credit. Tulsa is 20-11-1 ATS as a double digit underdog.

Oklahoma State opened -11.5 and reached 14 at some sportsbooks. Be patient and wait for 14 to pop back up.

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Tampa Bay starter Shane McClanahan projects to give up 2.2 runs with a 3.22 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  Texas’ lineup has hit just .147 (5-34) with a weak .616 OPS against McClanahan in his career.  The Rangers will start Cal Quantrill.  The righty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.69 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Tampa Bay’s favor, look for the Rays to get a solid road win in this game on Thursday night.

Play RAYS (-).

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145 Colorado at Georgia Tech

While we are not much of a fan of the Buffaloes coach, this line is simply too high to ignore. In fact, if this line was a full seven points it would have likely made our client list.

We simply don't trust this Yellow Jackets team to lay this type of number with the off season changes at skill positions.

PLAY COLORADO

We had a bad day on the diamond yesterday, so we are releasing all three Thursday plays in One Low Priced $19 package. #1 in the History of Wagertalk in MLB Net Profit. It's bounce back time in Major League Baseball.

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KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

1) The UNDER is 6-0 since last season if it's the second half of the season and Gausman starts against an NL opponent that is scoring an average of at least 4.5 runs per game, staying UNDER by an average of 2.6 runs.

2) The UNDER is 6-0 this season when the Brewers have scored at least 8 runs in two straight games, staying UNDER by an average of 3.1 runs.

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Danny Scudero OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards (-124) — Colorado vs. Georgia Tech

Danny Scudero is one of my favorite additions to this Colorado offense. He transfers in from San Jose State after a breakout season where he established himself as an explosive, reliable receiving option. Scudero went over 50 receiving yards in 9 of 12 games last season, and we saw just how high the ceiling can be when he exploded for a 215-yard receiving game. He doesn't need anything close to that here—we're only asking for 50.

Colorado will have a new quarterback in Julian Lewis, and while he's young, he's an extremely talented and highly touted recruit. There could certainly be some growing pains, but having an experienced receiver like Scudero who can consistently create separation should be extremely valuable for a young quarterback. Scudero's speed, hands and ability to get open were major reasons he became one of the country's most productive receivers last season.

The matchup is another reason to like this prop. The secondary looks like the area of Georgia Tech's defense that Colorado should be able to attack, and Scudero doesn't need a huge game to get us home. A handful of catches could be enough to clear 50 yards.

This is also a nice number for a player who showed tremendous consistency last season. He doesn't need a touchdown, and we aren't asking him to get to 75 or 100 yards. We're simply betting on one of Colorado's most talented receiving weapons to produce 50+ yards in a matchup where the passing game should have opportunities.

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While he conceded three earned runs in six innings last outing, Quantrill has a dominant 1.49 ERA and 0.80 WHIP over his past seven starts. He allowed just six combined runs in those seven games. His last three starts have all been quality and he has 19 K's against 0 walks in those games. While I certainly respect McClanahan, he's only 2-5 with a 3.91 ERA on the road. McClanahan pitched three innings against the Rangers on 7/30 and the final score was 3-2 Tampa. A couple of days earlier, Quantrill allowed just two hits in beating the Rays 4-1. Including that victory, Quantrill is 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA for his career against Tampa. In what will likely be another close game where runs are at a premium, let's grab the extra +1.5 runs with Quantrill and the Rangers.

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Boston has an excellent opportunity to rebound Thursday behind the stronger overall pitching profile and its continued success at Camden Yards. The Red Sox have a 3.66 ERA and 1.24 WHIP compared with Baltimore’s 4.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, giving Boston a meaningful season-long advantage on the mound. Boston southpaw Jake Bennett also provides an edge with a 9-6 record, 3.27 ERA, and excellent 1.04 WHIP across 93.2 innings.

Jake Bennett’s 2026 Metrics

• 3.27 ERA, 3.18 xERA, 3.16 FIP, and 3.80 xFIP

• 7.11 K/9 and 19.8% K%

• 1.73 BB/9 and 4.8% BB%

• 0.67 HR/9 and 7.0% HR/FB

Bennett has recorded at least five strikeouts in four consecutive appearances and earned the win in each of his last four outings against American League East opponents. Baltimore counters with Brandon Young, who has pitched well at 9-3 with a 3.38 ERA, but his 1.34 WHIP suggests Boston should have opportunities to put runners on base. Young is also a prime regression candidate, as shown by his 4.36 xERA, 4.32 FIP, and 4.47 xFIP, along with 3.18 BB/9 and 1.17 HR/9 rates. The Red Sox also possess the superior offensive averages, hitting .250 with a .323 on-base percentage compared with Baltimore’s .235 average and .317 OBP. Most importantly, Boston has dominated this matchup in Baltimore, winning eight of its last nine road games against the Orioles. Moreover, Baltimore has lost five consecutive home games against Boston following a loss and failed to cover the run line in five straight as a home underdog following a defeat.

From a technical standpoint, MLB favorites are 778-520 (59.9%; +4.9% ROI) versus opponents entering off an upset loss as favorites of -150 or greater, winning by an average margin of 0.8 runs per game since 2005. With the better overall pitching staff, Bennett’s strong profile, and Boston’s sustained success at Camden Yards, back the Red Sox as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, September 3.

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This is a free play on 1H Under.

I have LSU as my most overrated team in the country in 2026 (I had Penn State in this spot last year). There is no denying that LSU has the talent, as they spent north of 50 Million on their roster. There are 43 new players coming in through the transfer portal, and a new QB coming off a pretty serious injury. I expect it to take a while to figure out what they want to do on offense, and this game is likely to start slow. On the other side Clemson also has a new quarterback, 1st year starter Chris Vizzina. He's going to be in a tough spot here on the road at Death Valley, and I expect Dabo to try to ease him into it, not asking him to do too much early.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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As the A’s haven’t had much pitching all summer, it’s no wonder they’ve been involved in so many higher scorelines. Indeed, in 16 of their last 22 games, A’s scorelines have exceeded this 7.5 “total” tonight at T-Mobile Park.

As for a game with Jack Perkins on the mound, runs seem likely, as he’s posted a hefty 6.90 ERA in ten appearances since the start of July. Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for Mariners rookie Kade Anderson (4.50 ERA in two starts) to start dominating as many predicted, so this “total” looks very reachable in Seattle. Play A’s-Mariners “Over”

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The Rays’ lead in the AL East is down to 3.5 games and they’ll need the help of Shane McClanahan in order to get back on track in Texas. McClanahan has held the opponent to 3 earned runs or less in 9 of his past 10 starts and enters with a wOBA of .268. He also ranks in the 97^th percentile in off-speed run value and has a high ground ball rate. Cal Quantrill has pitched well as of late, but he doesn’t strike out many batters and has a very low whiff percentage. Take the Rays.

100% (3-0) MLB RUN!

85.7% (6-1) MLB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)    

73-40 MLB RUN!

115-65 MLB RUN!

+103 UNITS SINCE MAY 5^TH IN MLB!

16-7 MLB 5% TOP PLAYS THIS SEASON!

22-10 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

SPECIAL! BUY 3 DAYS AND GET 3 DAYS FREE!

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Take Miami-FL- Stanford OVER (#153-154)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below also offers my take for Michigan State - Toledo on Friday Night (as well as Miami - Stanford)

Miami lost a pair of first round edge rushers off their defensive line to the NFL in the offseason.  Last year in Miami, the ‘Canes held Stanford to a single TD and eight first downs.  This year in Palo Alto, I’m expecting the Cardinal to move the football, just like they did last week against Hawaii.  Its worth noting that Stanford is expected to have at least two of the three starting offensive linemen who missed last week’s game; a strong unit up front facing a Miami defensive front replacing multiple first rounders.  Miami starting QB Darian Mensah was a stud in two years starting at Tulane; the skill position talent around him remains ‘national championship contender’ caliber.  In Week 1, the betting markets tend to love Unders, expecting defenses to be ahead of offenses early.  Not this game!  Take the OVER

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South Carolina has an excellent opportunity to overwhelm Kent State because the talent disparity between these rosters is substantial on both sides of the ball. South Carolina enters 2026 determined to fix an offense that completely fell apart around quarterback LaNorris Sellers last season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in PFF’s team rushing, receiving, pass-blocking and run-blocking grades. Former TCU offensive coordinator Kendal Briles takes over with the mandate to maximize Sellers’ dual-threat ability and immediately improve a unit that dramatically underperformed its talent level. South Carolina has made a concerted effort to improve the offensive line around Sellers, adding transfers Jacarrius Peak from North Carolina State, Carter Miller from UCF and Hank Purvis from Purdue to strengthen protection and create more consistent running lanes. Peak is the centerpiece of that rebuild after earning an 84.1 PFF pass-blocking grade last season, the 11th-best mark among all tackles nationally. However, head coach Shane Beamer announced on Tuesday that Peak (knee) would not play in the Gamecocks’ season opener. Better protection should give Sellers more time to push the ball downfield and maximize his rare physical tools. His elite arm strength, nearly 240-pound frame and speed have helped him force 88 missed tackles, the most by any Power Four quarterback since the start of 2024.

Kent State returns only 39% of its defensive production (ranked 77th nationally in overall experience), creating additional concerns against an experienced quarterback like Sellers. In contrast, South Carolina ranks 5th in the country in overall experience, with 69.8% of last year’s total yards returning (11th) and 126 career starts along the offensive line (4th). The Gamecocks enter the 2026-27 campaign ranked 5th in Returning Production (68% overall), per Bill Connelly’s metrics, whereas Kent State checks in at 87th. With coach Beamer potentially facing increased pressure if the offense fails to rebound, expect an aggressive effort to establish Briles’ system and generate confidence against an overmatched Kent State defense that finished just 120th in defensive SP+ last season.

Kent State's overall profile remains one of the weakest in the FBS, as the Golden Flashes finished 130th in SP+ in 2025 despite improving to 5-7. Kent State ranks 128th in SP+ this season, including 125th offensively and 127th defensively, with an average projection of just 3.9 wins. Those numbers are especially concerning against an SEC opponent that can control the line of scrimmage and force Kent State into obvious passing situations. South Carolina’s defensive front features one of the nation’s most disruptive talents in edge rusher Dylan Stewart, whose elite athleticism and explosiveness give the Gamecocks a major advantage against Kent State’s offensive front. Despite battling a late-season back injury, Stewart improved significantly against the run, posting a 79.0 PFF run-defense grade that ranked seventh among qualified SEC edge defenders. When healthy, the potential 2027 top-10 NFL Draft pick should create consistent pressure, disrupt Kent State’s running game and make it extremely difficult for the Golden Flashes to sustain drives. Coach Beamer announced on Tuesday that Stewart would not see the field on Saturday.

There is also a broader issue of conference strength, as MAC teams went just 1-25 against Power Four opponents last season. From a technical standpoint, college football favorites of -28 or greater are 125-1 SU and 72-52-2 ATS (58.1%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, while home favorites of greater than -30 are 64-0 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) in season-openers versus FBS foes, covering the spread by an average margin of 3.1 points per game since 2014. Let’s also note that SEC teams are 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in their season-openers versus non-conference opponents, covering the spread by an average of 2.8 points per game since 2016. After last year’s four-win disappointment, South Carolina has every incentive to use this opener to establish confidence rather than simply survive against an inferior opponent. With Sellers directing the offense, a massive advantage in overall roster talent and favorable mismatches along both lines of scrimmage, lay the points with South Carolina as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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This is a free play on Auburn.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Alex Golesh takes over at Auburn, and he brings with him several star players from last year's South Florida team. Baylor was one of the worst teams in the BIG12 last season, and they bring in DJ Lagway to replace Sawyer Robertson at QB. Dave Aranda is on the hot seat, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first head coach to be fired in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Take Georgia Tech (#146)

The 'Daily Double' video below offers my take for Colorado - Georgia Tech and Illinois - UAB on Thursday Night.

The Ramblin Wreck were able to win SU and ATS in Boulder last year despite a -3 turnover differential; outgaining Deion’s squad by +160 yards in the process.  I’m not expecting the rematch to be any closer, even with Georgia Tech breaking in a new QB and a new offensive coordinator.  The betting markets often overreact to offseason personnel losses; underestimating how prepared (and talented) their replacements will be.   The Buffs lost every road game by a TD or more last year (1-4 ATS in this role) and they’ve already suffered key injuries at WR and on the OL.  Laying less than a touchdown with the host is a legitimate pointspread bargain!  Take Georgia Tech.

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Tulsa enters the 2026 season as an intriguing home underdog with the continuity and returning production necessary to challenge an Oklahoma State program undergoing a massive rebuild. The Golden Hurricane improved from 128th in SP+ in 2024 to 104th last season and are projected to climb again to 98th in 2026, continuing the upward trajectory under second-year coach Tre Lamb. Tulsa also returns quarterback Baylor Hayes, who threw for 2,158 yards as a freshman, giving the offense valuable continuity at the most important position. The Golden Hurricane rank among the national leaders in returning production, bringing back 62% overall, and Lamb supplemented that experience with an outstanding transfer class that added substantial depth at running back, receiver, and in the secondary. Indeed, Tulsa ranks 23rd in Returning Production and is one of 18 teams with a Stability Score of 15 or higher, as defined by VSIN’s Steve Makinen.

Oklahoma State may ultimately improve under new coach Eric Morris, but this remains a program coming off a disastrous 1-11 season after going winless in Big 12 play for the second consecutive year. The Cowboys have undergone one of the country's most extensive roster overhauls, replacing more than 60% of their scholarship roster and relying heavily on Morris' transfers from North Texas. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker was prolific at North Texas, but moving into a new program with so many new pieces creates legitimate uncertainty in a season opener, particularly on the road. Tulsa has already shown it can handle this matchup, defeating Oklahoma State 19-12 in Stillwater last season for its first win over the Cowboys since 1998. Any revenge angle is also muted by Oklahoma State’s upcoming home opener against Oregon, creating a classic lookahead spot. While I am certainly bullish on Oklahoma State's offensive ceiling, its roster turnover and defensive uncertainty make it difficult to justify laying a significant number on the road against an improving opponent.

From a technical standpoint, Group of Five home teams like Tulsa are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) versus Power 4 schools in Weeks 0 and 1, including 23-8 ATS (74.2%) as underdogs of six points or more. In addition, college football road favorites laying more than a field goal are 41-58-1 ATS (41.4%) in Weeks 0 and 1, including 19-33-1 ATS (36.5%) as road favorites of -12 or greater versus FBS opponents. These inflated favorites have been 7-16-1 ATS (30.4%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 5.6 points per game. Finally, Oklahoma State lost its final eleven games last season (1-11 overall), which is significant because FBS teams that lost their last six games from the previous season are 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%) in season-openers, including 18-28-1 ATS (39.1%) if they ended the prior campaign with ten straight defeats.

Tulsa's combination of returning production, quarterback continuity, an upgraded transfer class, and last year's head-to-head success makes the Golden Hurricane a live home underdog. My math model favors Oklahoma State by fewer than ten points, so grab the inflated number with the Tulsa Hurricane as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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Wyoming enters Saturday’s Border War as an attractive road underdog against a Colorado State program undergoing major changes after a disastrous 2025 season. The Rams finished 2-10 overall last year (1-7 in Mountain West play) and were outscored by an average of 30.8 to 18.5 points per game. First-year head coach Jim Mora takes over a program that has enjoyed just one winning season in eight years and ranks 99th in the country in Returning Production. Even more concerning is the fact that the Rams enter the 2026-27 campaign with a Stability Score (metric developed by VSIN’s Steve Makinen) of just 3, which is telling because college football teams with a score of 0-6 are 173-217-4 ATS (44.4%) versus non-conference opponents with a higher Stability score during the first three weeks of the regular season, provided they are not favored by -30 or greater.

Wyoming’s program was revived by former head coach Craig Bohl, who retired in 2023 after leading the Cowboys to seven straight seasons at .500 or better. Jay Sawvel, the team’s defensive coordinator from 2019-22, was promoted to head coach and now enters with an improved offense led by William & Mary transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes, who followed offensive coordinator Christian Taylor to Laramie and already understands the system. The senior signal-caller accounted for 37 touchdowns throughout his four-year career and earned the starting job at William & Mary last fall, breaking out for 2,330 yards and 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. “Hughes separated himself with the overall command of everything from the minute he got here,” Sawvel said last Monday. “The command of the whole offense and the presence that he has to everything stood out. He’s put himself in a really good spot. I feel good with where he’s at, and I think the whole team does. ... He could be really, really good.”

Hughes will have a stronger supporting cast around him, with running back Samuel “Tote” Harris and receiver Justin Stevenson among the offensive pieces capable of producing more explosiveness in 2026. Jay Sawvel’s defense remains the foundation of the team and possesses enough experience and depth in the front seven to make the Rams earn everything offensively. Colorado State’s offense struggled to move the chains last season, scoring 21 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games and getting shut out by the Cowboys. Wyoming has also controlled the recent Border War, winning four of the last five meetings, including 28-0, 24-15, 14-13, and 31-17. Let’s also note that Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last five home openers.

Technically, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points are 842-688-28 ATS (55%), provided they have fewer than four wins on the season. These teams have been 480-379-12 ATS (55.9%) since 2017. Colorado State lost each of its final six games last season, which is relevant because college football teams that lost their final six games the previous season are just 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. Finally, the Cowboys apply to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS (87.5%) system that dates to 1989 and invests on certain unranked road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season in games with totals of 58 points or less. These live underdogs have covered the spread by an average of 12.8 points per game over the last two decades. With the better recent defense, greater program continuity, and a proven ability to dominate this matchup, take the points with the Wyoming Cowboys as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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Off five straight wins, the Lions are red hot. They've also beaten the Alouettes five straight times. Montreal is favored for good reason though. The Als have been the best team in the league all season. They're 9-2 overall (+88 point differential) and a perfect 6-0 at home. The Lions are playing their second straight Eastern Conference road game and they're doing so on a short week. Off a rare loss, an angry Montreal team should bounce back with a win and cover.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on LOU.

The Cardinals lost four games last year, two of those losses came in overtime and another came by a single point. The only game they lost by more than three points was on the road at SMU without their starting quarterback. Jeff Brohm will have a new quarterback in 2026, bringing in transfer Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State. Given coach Brohm's history of developing quarterbacks, the expectation is that Kienholz will be successful. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin, but they bring back the best quarterback and running back duo in the country. The Rebels were 11-1 in the regular season last year, and five of their first six games versus FBS teams were decided by one score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

(145) Colorado at (146) Georgia Tech: Spread

Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110)

Home-field advantage at Bobby Dodd is meaningful in a season opener.

Georgia Tech returns a more stable overall roster and has a strong rushing identity.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to lean heavily on their running game under new OC George Godsey.

Their defensive front could be the biggest matchup problem for Colorado

If Tech consistently gets 4–5 yards on first down, it can control possession and keep Colorado off the field. That makes Georgia Tech -6.5 considerably more attractive

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 31 Colorado 21

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a top 3 future bet for me. I think we see angry Bills team enter this season and obviously they have Super Bowl aspirations. This team is loaded with talent, is playing in a new Stadium, with a new coach and only has 1 team to beat in the AFC East. That is right, this division is a 2 horse race and I think we see the Pats regress. The Pats benefited from an easy schedule last year, surprised everyone and are not going to the same team as last year. The Bills have the best QB in the division, the best RB in the division and have upgraded their WR core and Oline. Their biggest issue was on defense (generating pressure) and now they have added Bradley Chubb to the mix. The bottom line here is I want an angry Josh Allen, coming off his 1st tough season in a while, in a division with only 1 other team to seriously worry about.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

🔥 9-0 (100%) active CFB run (+42% PROFIT).

46-25 (65%) CFB L 365 Days (+71% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked Handicapper Overall L Calendar Year= Over (+100%) PROFIT.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago

The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago