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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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We cashed yet another ticket on Utah State in their 10 point win over Villanova Friday, but this is where the run ends for the Aggies. USU is not a team that’s built to play Arizona, mostly due to the size of the Wildcats and Utah State’s style of play. Unlike in previous seasons, the Aggies don’t have a lot of knock down 3 point shooters, and they don’t take very many either. This is a team that cuts extremely effectively and works around the basket. They rank 9th in the nation in 2 point percentage, but it’s much different when you’re going up against a wall that is the AZ frontcourt rather than playing teams in the Mountain West. The Aggies also struggle mightily on the glass defensively, coming in at 259th in defensive rebounding percentage, so look for those 2nd chance opportunities from the Wildcats who are top 5 in offensive rebounding percentage! Arizona has won 10 straight games and is 33-2 on the season. Tommy Lloyds club is 5th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 3rd on defense. And importantly, 2nd in opponent 2 point shooting percentage, which like I mentioned is the shot selection Utah State wants. Between the domination on the glass and the huge frontcourt, the only way we can play this one is by laying the chalk with the Wildcats. Take Arizona.
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Tokyo Brandon
Japan NPB
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I can verify Yakult’s starter as Ogawa Yasuhiro, but I could not verify Nippon Ham’s official announced starter. This is a best-fit probable-starter scenario with Hosono Haruki based on his rotation-lock status after his March 14 tune-up. The game is the March 22 open-season meeting at Es Con Field.
Outline of reasoning and calculations
1) Team split baseline
Nippon Ham offense base
2025 home: 289 RS / 71 G = 4.07
2025 home Sundays: 53 RS / 14 G = 3.79
2025 vs Yakult: 17 RS / 3 G = 5.67
2025 March-April home: 28 RS / 13 G = 2.15
Weighted base before pitcher/lineup/park adjustments:0.35(4.07) + 0.20(3.79) + 0.15(5.67) + 0.15(2.15) + 0.15(2.00 recent-series proxy) = 3.69
Yakult offense base
2025 away: 208 RS / 71 G = 2.93
2025 road Sundays: 44 RS / 12 G = 3.67
2025 at Es Con: 4 RS / 3 G = 1.33
2025 March-April road: 30 RS / 10 G = 3.00
Weighted base before pitcher/lineup/park adjustments:0.35(2.93) + 0.20(3.67) + 0.15(1.33) + 0.15(3.00) + 0.15(2.50 recent-series proxy) = 2.78
2) Starting-pitcher adjustment
Ogawa for Yakult is the cleanest hard datapoint in the matchup. Yakult’s official 2025 card-by-card pitcher page shows Ogawa made 1 start vs Nippon Ham and allowed 6 ER in 6 2/3 IP with 9 H, 0 BB, 7 K. That adds meaningful upside to the Fighters’ early scoring projection.
Hosono probable-starter scenario: official 2025 NPB line was 6 G, 35.2 IP, 18 H, 1 BB, 34 K, 1.51 ERA, and the March 14 tune-up was the outing that helped lock him into the opening rotation. I could not verify a meaningful 2025-only official Hosono-vs-current-Yakult hitter sample, so I weighted his overall 2025 run prevention much more heavily than any supposed individual BvP angle.
3) Bullpen adjustment
Yakult’s 2025 March-April split was 4.01 ERA from starters, 3.32 from relievers.
Nippon Ham’s 2025 March-April split was 2.65 ERA from starters, 2.66 from relievers.
Recent usage does not show a fully cooked bullpen on either side. Yakult used only 3 relievers for 3 innings on 3/21 after Yamano and 3 relievers on 3/20 after Yoshimura. Nippon Ham’s pen was a bit heavier: 5 relievers on 3/20, then Lao for 3 innings / 52 pitches plus Uehara on 3/21. I slightly downgraded one middle-inning bridge slot for the Fighters, but not the full pen.
4) Lineup / form adjustment
The open-season form edge is slightly to Nippon Ham overall: 8-4-2 vs Yakult 7-8-2 entering 3/22.
The best recent hitter-form notes I could verify:
Nomura has hit in 4 straight games and is at .400 in the open season.
Kiyomiya and Mannami were set to rejoin the first team and play on 3/22.
Nagaoka homered on 3/21 and had 2 hits.
Tamiya had a strong 3/21 box line, and Mizutani had a 3-hit game on 3/20.
That pushed Nippon Ham’s projected lineup quality up a bit from the first two games of the series, while Yakult gets a smaller bump from Nagaoka’s form.
Projected score
Segment | Yakult | Nippon Ham |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.2 | 2.3 |
Full game | 2.9 | 4.2 |
Projected starting-pitcher lines
Nippon Ham line is for the probable-starter scenario:
Pitcher | Team | IP | IS | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yasuhiro Ogawa | Yakult | 4 1/3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
Haruki Hosono* | Nippon Ham | 4 2/3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Projected hitter lines
These are projected medians for likely core lineups, not official posted 3/22 starting lineups. Recent lineups and form came mainly from the 3/20 and 3/21 box scores plus the 3/22 preview notes.
Nippon Ham
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shun Mizutani | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Manami Nakamasa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Reyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Yuki Nomura | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kotaro Kiyomiya | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yuya Gunji | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yusuke Tamiya | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hide Yamagata | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kota Yazawa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yakult
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hideki Nagaoka | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Yoshihiro Akabane | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Santana | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Osuna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Tama Masuda | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yudai Koga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Keigo Kitamura | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yukihiro Iwata | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Yasuhiro Ogawa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Moneyline chart
Team | Projected win % | Projected fair odds | DraftKings today* | DK odds minus projected odds difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nippon Ham | 66.3% | -197 | -147 | +50 |
Yakult | 33.7% | +197 | +124 | -73 |
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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Bryan Leonard
College Basketball
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812 Iowa at Florida
No doubt Iowa has a good basketball team this season, but they are running into an elite team on Sunday. They have struggled when stepping up in class, winning outright just once as an underdog all season. That was against an Indiana team that didn’t even qualify for the Big Dance. Iowa is just 4-7 straight up as of late, fading down the stretch.
Florida is on a 22-3 straight up run, blowing out Prairie View by a record 59 points in the previous round. We expect this line to grow by game time, so lay the reasonable chalk ASAP.
PLAY FLORIDA
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Joe Raineri
College Basketball
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I'm having a really hard time figuring out exactly how High Point plans to stop or even slow down Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas. These two players are like nothing they have ever had to defend this season. Both these players will be in the NBA soon enough, and they will blow past these High Point defenders and eventually take over this game. It was a nice win for High Point vs. Wisconsin, but this is a different beast altogether, and with the experienced Trevon Brazile leading Arkansas's defensive effort, I see the Hogs running away with this game in the second half. I don't believe they'll have an issue scoring, and High Point's only shot is to score at another crazy level to keep this one close. I think they left their best effort on the court vs Wisconsin, and Calipari will not allow them to continue to get open looks at the basket. Acuff and Thomas will dominate this one and win going away.
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play OVER with the total between 214.5 and 219.5 if one team has a win percentage between 40% and 49%, has gone over the total by at least 42 points in their last seven games, and is facing a team with a winning record.
Applies to Milwaukee.
27-5 (84.4%) since the 2021 season, going OVER by an average margin of 9.2 points!
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Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(519) Milwaukee Bucks at (520) Phoenix Suns: Spread
Milwaukee Bucks +11.5 (-110)
Milwaukee Bucks Performance:
Revenge System Performance: Teams like Milwaukee, which are playing with revenge for a home loss while also coming off a loss as an away favorite by 10+ points, has a strong record of 51-22 (70%) ATS since 2020. This trend suggests that teams in this situation often excel against the spread.
Phoenix Suns Performance:
Struggles After a Long Road Trip: The Suns have lost 4 straight games and are returning home after a 6-game road trip. This presents challenges, as teams returning home under similar conditions have historically underperformed.
Home Favorite Trends: The system stating that teams as a home favorite of -3 or higher, coming off at least a 5-game road trip while losing their last 3 games, shows a record of 32-56-1 (36.4%) ATS since 2001. Additionally, they are 2-11 (15%) ATS as a favorite of -8 or higher. This trend indicates that the Suns may struggle to cover spreads after such extended road trips and poor recent performances.
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Ben Burns
College Basketball
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This O/U line is high -- but likely not high enough. High Point just scored 83 against Wisconsin, allowing 82. The Panthers averaged a whopping 93.8 ppg in the regular season. They've played 34 games and they scored more than 70 every time. Now the Panthers take on an Arkansas team which also averaged more than 90 ppg during the season. The Razorbacks just dropped 97 on Hawaii in the opening rd, the sixth straight time they've scored more than 80. Expect a fast-paced high-scoring affair. *good up to 170
Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper of All-Time. He enters Friday with a perfect 4-0 tournament record and on a 12-2 CBB run overall, part of a longer-term +314 unit hoops heater.
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*PERFECT 7-0 TOURNEY RECORD* CBB (4%) BEST BET! (15-2 RUN + #1 ALL-TIME): $25.00
RED HOT Ben Burns broke out the broom with a PERFECT 4-0 Friday SWEEP. He's an AMAZING 15-2 his last 17 CBB, entering Saturday's action. That includes a PERFECT 7-0 RECORD with NCAA/NIT Tournament plays. On a +320+ UNIT HOOPS HEATER, the #1 BIG GAME Basketball Handicapper Of All-Time delivers again. Jump on board!
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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High Point showed that they are no joke on Thursday, beating Wisconsin outright as double digit dogs. The Panthers have won 31 games this season and hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 15. They put up 90 per contest and rank top 5 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Chase Johnston was electric off the bench against the Badgers, making an off balance 3-pointer from the logo and going 4 for 6 from deep, with some really clutch shots to close out the game. Arkansas is a great team, they’re just running into a tough matchup against a squad that can really light it up. Whether the Panthers can get the SU win remains to be seen, but we’ll happily put them in our pocket catching double digits once again. Take High Point.
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