Free Sports Predictions OCT 6: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

We’ve been underwhelmed by much of the Big XII thus far, Houston among those, as the Cougs have looked irresistible this season only against FCS foe Southern U. Certainly not last week vs. UCF, which had the Cougars on the ropes until well into the third quarter when Scott Frost temporarily ran low on QBs and was forced to use third-stringer Kaleb Annett - who couldn’t get the ball downfield - after starter Keyone Jenkins was temporarily KO’d following his disastrous interception deep in his own territory got Houston back into the game. It’s going to take a better effort than last week or the previous Saturday at Georgia Southern (both spread losses for the Cougars) to deal with a more-dangerous K-State squad that has had a week to lick its wounds after blowing a second-half lead at Cincinnati. Now it’s back to the Little Apple, where new head coach Collin Klein won all three for the ‘Cats in September, and where veteran dual-threat QB Avery Johnson (better than 300 yards per game total offense thus far) is more likely to fly, or perhaps run, which he did to the tune of 152 rushing yards the last time KSU played at Manhattan on September 19 vs. Tulane. The Willie Fritz defense must also now deal with a foe that will seriously opt for the overland route as the Cats’ smashmouth infantry is gaining better than 6.4 yards per carry while ranking 13th nationally at 241 yards per game, and probably do it better than a somewhat-disappointing Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago in Lubbock. Let’s also see if Houston can stand up a bit better against another quality QB after facing only one of those (Oregon State’s Braden Atkinson, in his first start, tossing for 376 yards) and another pair of so-so pilots (Georgia Southern’s ageless Max Johnson and Texas Tech’s rather limited Will Hammond) who burned the Cougs for over 550 combined pass yards in recent weeks.
Play Kansas State

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Florida has won five of the last six meetings in this SEC matchup, with the last one being a 41-39 road win at South Carolina in October 2023. Gamecocks' head coach Shane Beamer can't afford another heart-breaker like that, and frankly, we're not sure how many more losses he can take under any circumstances if he wants to stay in Columbia. South Carolina is off to an 0-3 start (both straight-up and against the spread) in SEC play after last week's 35-34 loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks jumped out to a 17-0 lead by the beginning of the second quarter, but the defense couldn't slow down Kentucky's offense after that. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 yards in addition to his two touchdowns through the air. South Carolina's four games against FBS-level competition have all gone over the total. Florida is also licking its wounds after last week's 45-17 loss at Missouri. Just like the Gamecocks, all four of Florida's games against FBS-level competition have gone over the total. For the first time this season, the Gators' offense never got out of park. Jadan Baugh's Heisman campaign took a major hit after he was only able to generate 13 rushing yards on 12 attempts against the Tigers' defense. QB Aaron Philo failed to throw for 200 yards and he wasn't able to offer much on the ground, either. Even though Florida's offense struggled last week against Missouri, we see no reason to jump off the "over" train that each team is riding. The Gamecocks' defense was fired up and ready to go last week against Kentucky, forcing the Wildcats to punt on each of their first four possessions. As soon as Kentucky's offense started to make adjustments, South Carolina's defense had no answers. Big Blue scored on six of its last nine possessions. Beamer has floated the idea of benching Sellers, but after he produced 373 yards last week, the Gamecocks have bigger issues on the defensive side, not their veteran QB. Play the Over

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The Ducks knocked the Oilers out of the playoffs last April. Five of those six games finished with seven or more goals. Overall, the games in that series averaged a whopping 7.83 goals. This season, Edmonton's three games have averaged 10.3 goals. While Anaheim's two games have averaged "only" six, Wednesday's playoff rematch should produce at least seven. Go with the over.

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Partizan vs Real Madrid

Bet: Partizan +10.5 -110

This is a fascinating matchup because the overall average rankings are almost identical, but the distribution of those strengths is extremely different.

Partizan has the more important current advantages for a +10.5 underdog:..

• #6 scoring vs #9

• #4 scoring defense vs #14

• #5 two-point shooting vs #12

• #4 three-point shooting vs #9

• #7 fouls vs #16

Real's advantages are primarily rebounding, rim protection and free throws. Partizan is only 19th in both offensive rebounding and total rebounding, while Real is #10 overall on the glass and #2 in blocks.

But the spread is asking Real to win by 11+ points against a team that is 3–0 and has allowed only 239 points in three games, 79.7 PPG, compared with Real's 91.3 allowed. Real is 0–3 with a -15 cumulative differential.

That makes the defensive gap particularly relevant:

Partizan OPP PPG rank: #4
Real Madrid OPP PPG rank: #14

For an underdog catching double digits, that is exactly the kind of profile I want..

Rankings strongly support Partizan +10.5

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This is a free play on PSU.

Surely a ranked USC team isn't gonna lose to a down in the dumps Penn State squad that already has two losses? Not so fast my friends. USC has looked downright awful, particularly on defense. Viral clips have surfaced of USC defenders giving two handed pushes in a half hearted attempt to direct opponents out of bounds instead of actually making a tackle. I am not sure that the Trojans are ready for all the smoke of a White Out at Beaver Stadium. Since 2012 USC is 2-10 straight up in games played in the Eastern Time Zone, and they failed to cover in both wins (Rugters & Purdue).

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Take Ball State (#379)

My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner backing Northwestern at home last Friday Night in their dominating blowout win against Penn State.  Here’s an excerpt from that write-up:

“It’s pretty clear at this stage – Northwestern is a good notch or two better than the betting markets thought they would be.  There’s nothing fraudulent about the Wildcats 100% ATS start.  Their defense has been outstanding; senior transfer QB Aiden Chiles has avoided mistakes, and this long sluggish offense has both a solid OL and ‘playmaker’ talent.  I’m not convinced in the slightest that the betting markets have caught up to how good David Braun’s team is this year; a value laden team after nearly a decade of mediocrity.  Northwestern is opening their brand spankin’ new field on Friday Night in front of a national TV audience; a rare occasion where the Wildcats will legitimately have a strong homefield edge.”

That was then, this is now.  Northwestern just enjoyed the biggest win in recent program history.  Up next?  A very winnable Big 10 road game at Michigan State.  In between?  This matchup against a MAC school; as ‘flat’ as a flat spot can be.  The Wildcats are just 5-4 SU in their last nine vs the MAC (favored in all of them). The last time they played Ball State, they won by 5 as 19 point chalk.  This is simply too many points, even against the bottom feeder Cardinals!  Take Ball State.

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Backing the Bulldogs over the Tide in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Other than Alabama struggling against FSU for a half, both teams have cruised to a (5-0) record on the season. It is not easy going on the road in the SEC, however Georgia has traveled very well recently. Kirby Smart's squad with the veteran Gunnar Stockton behind center the last two years is (4-0) in road games, winning each of the last two by 20+ points. For this week's free pick- Bet Georgia.

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FREE PICK on Detroit Lions (ATS) | Good until -6.0.

Detroit hasn't looked incredible this season so far either. But, I'm still anticipating better results this year opposed to last year's non-playoff season. Detroit's offense is definitely good enough for it to go far this season. It's the defense which is lacking and that could change this weekend. Arizona lost by double digits to a backup QB NYG team. The Cards lost to the Niners in the week before. Go with Detroit.

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PLAY: UTSA -7

How many points is South Florida scoring against it’s fellow FBS teams? Averaging just 18.5 a game… 19 against FIU, 28 at Army, 14 at Bowling Green and just 13 in Saturday’s home loss to Temple.

Michael Van Buren has not thrown a touchdown pass in either of the last two games, and the Bulls had eight penalties for 63 yards against Temple, three of them false starts. Brian Hartline said it himself afterward: “We’re still our worst enemy on gameday.”

Now USF has to turn around on five days’ rest and fly to San Antonio for a Thursday night game. Yes, both teams are on a short week, but only one of them is doing it on the road, coming off a loss at home.

UTSA is 4-1, and the only loss came at Texas. Owen McCown has 1,010 passing yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, Will Henderson III has 396 rushing yards, and the Roadrunners have turned it over just three times all season. They hung 59 on Colorado State in their last home game, and they have not forgotten last year’s 55-23 beating in Tampa.

This opened 6.5 and has already moved to 7 and is headed for 7.5, hence the free play. Laying it with the home team in the Alamodome against an offense that cannot find the end zone…

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I successfully played against the Minutemen last week. I felt that they weren't as good as their 4-0 record and that they shouldn't be laying that many points against Eastern Michigan. Sure enough, the underdog Eagles smoked them 38-14. No longer undefeated, UMass is now arguably facing an even tougher opponent. The Redhawks are 0-2 on the road but those losses came at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and they nearly won the game against the Bearkats. The Redhawks are 4-0 the past four h2h meetings. This season, Miami has alternated wins and losses going L,W,L,W,L. Off last week's loss, look for the Hawks to bounce back and win their fifth straight in the series. *good at -3 or better

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UNLV cashed us a nice ticket last week with their win over Cal, but the competition gets a lot more difficult this week as North Dakota State comes to town. The Bison dominated the past decade at the FCS level and have taken over the Mountain West in their first season after being bumped up to D1. NDSU is a perfect 5-0 on the season and off a 28-0 shutout over Wyoming. They play a physical brand of football and will control the trenches against a Rebels squad that has already been a disappointment with all of their preseason hype. Tim Polasek and his players know they have a legitimate chance to reach the College Football Playoff, and we can expect them to cover the short chalk on Saturday. Take North Dakota State.

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