Bryan Woo had a big year last season and I do not believe that was an outlier as that came off a 2^nd year campaign in which he had a 9-3 record and a 2.89 ERA. He faces a Guardians lineup tonight who has just 11 combined plate appearances against him and outside of Hoskins and DeLauter, have struggled to start the year. The young Joey Cantillo faces a tough task in his first start of the year to face a dangerous Seattle lineup that has left the yard 6 times in just 2 games without any hits from Julio Rodriguez. With a 5-3 record over 13 starts and 34 appearances and a 3.21 ERA, I think this task may be a bit high for him and will lay the juice with the favorite.

Released/revised 24 minute(s) ago

I am expecting a Pitcher's duel tonight in Seattle between Joey Cantillo and Bryan Woo so being able to get get +0.5 Run 1st 5 innings at +104 with Cleveland is a +EV Play. I also believe the market has Seattle over priced in general due to the preseason hype.

TAKE CLEVELAND +0.5 RUN 1st 5 INNINGS

Released/revised 52 minute(s) ago

I don't see any reason to believe the Giants are just going to snap out of this offensive Funk vs this Yankees pitching staff in this game. The Yankees are clearly the better lineup with the better bullpen, and what we've gotten so far in this series is what we've gotten this season when these two teams have played (Yankees are now 10-0 vs the Giants) The Yankee bullpen has given up just one hit, three walks, and zero earned runs through 6.1 IP while the Giants bullpen has had to enter the game in the mid innings the first two games of this series. No reason to think the Yankees will suddenly stop hitting and the Giants will start. At this price, take the better team and pitching.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

2% San Francisco TT Over (7:15 ET): The Giants have started the 2026 season by getting shut out in B2B games. Not ideal. The 18 consecutive innings without a run is the longest such streak for the franchise to start a season since 1909 when they opened with 20 scoreless frames. Admittedly, their four hits in two games does not inspire much optimism for tonight’s series finale against the Yankees. But, I guess you can call me an optimist, because I think the Giants will put some runs on the board Saturday. DK is hanging a 2.5 for their team total and I’m betting the Over on that number.

The Yankees are starting Will Warren, who allowed 3+ runs in 15 of his starts last season. In fact, there were 11 starts where Warren allowed 4+ runs. So a good chance the Giants get to him early and we don’t even need to worry about the Yankees’ bullpen. Warren was a lot better at Yankee Stadium than he was on the road last season. He posted a 3.50 ERA and .281 OBA in the Bronx compared to 5.52 and .285 everywhere else. Also note that this is technically a daytime start (4:15 local time). Warren posted a 6.09 ERA during the day last season vs. 3.81 at home. Considering all the above, I suppose there’s a decent argument to simply play the Giants Over their F5 total. But I prefer to use all nine at-bats, if need be.

The Giants were shutout in B2B games only one time all of last season. It was by the Reds in the first homestand of the season. They responded by scoring 8 runs in the series finale and winning in extra innings. It took them a while to get going in that game (just one run through five innings). But, again, I feel that over the course of nine innings they can score at least three times here. 2% San Francisco Team Total Over 2.5 (Play to -160)

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Mikolas has been the over’s best friend for a while now. He’s a contact-heavy pitcher with a 41.8% hard-hit rate and 12.7% barrel rate allowed, and now he’s making his season debut at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out. He doesn’t miss many bats and lives in the strike zone, which can turn into trouble in these conditions.

Horton is a bit of a wildcard. His 2.67 ERA looks strong on the surface, but the underlying numbers tell a different story with a 4.27 xFIP and a 10% barrel rate allowed. That suggests he’s benefited from some good sequencing rather than dominating hitters.

Neither starter inspires much confidence as a true run suppressor here. Add in a Chicago lineup that owns a 110 wRC+ and favorable hitting conditions at Wrigley, and this sets up as a good spot to target the over.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater are 2709-1030 (72.5%; +2.2% ROI) and 2010-1522 RL (+2.7% ROI) in games with totals of eight or more runs, including 1833-646 (73.9%; +3.7% ROI) and 1444-1036 RL (+2.9% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average margin of +2.3 runs per game. Meanwhile, Arizona falls into very negative 2975-5274 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI), 2542-4537 (35.9%; -4.4 ROI), and 912-2225 (29.1%; -10.6% ROI) systems of mine that date to 2002 and invest against certain moderate to large road underdogs. The latter situation has lost by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game and is 1276-1478 RL (-6.4% ROI) since 2004. Since 2006, MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 678-416 (62%; +3.4% ROI), including 387-230 (62.7%; +3.6% ROI) since 2017. The Dodgers are 50-2 (96.2%; +33.8% ROI) and 38-12 RL (76%; +37.9% ROI) as large favorites in the final game of a series, winning by an average margin of +3.7 runs per game since 2003. Finally, the Dodgers are 40-3 (93%; +32.1% ROI) and 29-13 RL (69%; +32.3% ROI) in the final game of a series following a one-run win, winning by an average of +2.7 runs per game. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Purdue is #1 nationally in offensive efficiency and Arizona is #4. Arizona has averaged 93.0 points score per game in their 3 NCAA Tournament contests and Purdue scored 80.3 points per contest thus far in "The Big Dance". Additionally, Arizona averaged 80.3 points scored per game on their way to winning the Big 12 Tournament Championship. Conversely, Purdue averaged 77.0 points scored per contest on the way to capturing the Big 10 Tournament crown with 4 wins in 4 days. Purdue is #11 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage and #2 during Big 10 action. Arizona is coming off a 109-88 win over Arkansas on Thursday night that saw them shoot a sizzling hot 63.8% from the field. It marked the 6th time this season that Arizona has scored 100 points or more in a game.

Bet on this game to go over the total of 155.0 or lower.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

PHOENIX (-16.5) vs UTAH

Huge rest advantage here for the Suns, who have had 3 days off while Utah played Denver last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Look for the Suns to deliver a blowout win here.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

-Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller projects to give up 2.2 runs with a 3.32 ERA and 1.23 WHIP

-righty projects to have an 8.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.9 strikeout/walk ratio

-Mets lineup has hit a just .208 (16-77) with a weak .652 OPS against Keller in his career

-New York’s David Peterson projects to allow 2.0 earned runs with a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP

-lefty projects to have a 9.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.3 strikeout/walk ratio

-Pirates lineup has hit a just .206 (13-63) with a weak .726 OPS against Peterson in his career

Play UNDER the total.

-------------------

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

(913) Los Angeles Angels at (914) Houston Astros: Moneyline

Houston Astros -147

Houston Astros Performance Analysis:

• Season Struggles: The Astros have gotten off to a rough start, dropping their first two games of the season with scores of 3-0 and 2-6. Their offensive output has been lacking, managing only 3 hits in the opener and slightly improving to 8 hits in yesterday's game.

• Facing Left-Handed Pitching: Today, Houston will face a left-handed starter for the second consecutive day. Last season, the Astros were a strong 9-3 as a home favorite against left-handed pitchers, showcasing their ability to handle southpaws effectively.

System Trends:

• Home Team Performance in Game 3 of a Series: In the context of game #3 of a series, home teams off back-to-back losses as a home favorite of -150 or higher hold an impressive record of 100-44 (69.4%).

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

DO NOT MISS ANDREW'S 5% HES GOING FOR EIGHT STRAIGHT NHL WINNERS

Buffalo comes into tonight on the back end of a back to back but do not let that discourage you from this spot. The Sabres dropped a tough one to Detroit last night and that loss is going to fuel exactly the kind of offensive response we want to see tonight. Seattle’s defensive numbers have been soft all week — giving up chances consistently and ranking among the more exploitable teams on tonight’s slate. Buffalo’s offensive process has been generating at a strong rate and against a Seattle defense that cannot contain teams to the outside, the Sabres have every reason and every opportunity to come out pushing tonight. Motivated team, soft opponent defense, back the Sabres to find the net.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Jalen Johnson OVER 1.5 Made Threes

Johnson is on an absolute heater from deep, going over in 9 straight games while getting 6+ attempts per night and shooting over 40%. That combination of volume and efficiency is elite for a 1.5 line.

The matchup couldn’t be better. Atlanta ranks 29th in opponent three-point percentage, and Johnson has already hit 2 threes in both previous matchups against them. Everything lines up for another multi-three game.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Play OVER on home teams that are allowing 108-114 points per game after a combined score of 245 or more points, if their opponent is allowing at least 118 points per game and the total is no higher than 240.

Applies to Phoenix.

38-10 (79.2%) since the 2021 season, going OVER by an average of 7.5 points!

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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_______

last 2 seasons:

Bottom line: I project Mitch Keller for 17.2 outs against the Mets on Saturday, March 28, 2026. He’s listed as the Pirates’ starter in a 4:10 PM ET day game at Citi Field against David Peterson.

Calculation stack

1) All starts, 3/1/2025–3/28/2026 — weighted 30%

Keller made 32 starts in 2025 and averaged 5.51 innings per game, which is 16.5 outs per start.

2) Vs. Mets in that window — weighted 50%

Keller made two 2025 starts against the Mets:

• May 13, 2025: 7.0 IP = 21 outs

• June 27, 2025: 5.1 IP = 16 outs

That is 37 outs in 2 starts = 18.5 outs per start.

3) March starts in that window — weighted 20%

Keller’s March 2025 split shows 1 start, 6.0 IP, which is 18 outs.

Base weighted projection

• Overall bucket: 16.5 × 30% = 5.0

• Vs. Mets bucket: 18.5 × 50% = 9.3

• March bucket: 18.0 × 20% = 3.6

Base weighted projection = 17.8 outs

Adjustments

• Road split: Keller’s 2025 road split was 80.2 IP in 15 road starts = 16.0 outs/start, below his 16.5 overall average, so I dock -0.5 outs.

• Day split: Keller’s 2025 day split was 66.2 IP in 12 day starts = 16.6 outs/start, basically neutral to his overall baseline, so I leave this at 0.0 outs.

• Ballpark factor: 0.0 outs

• Fatigue / build-up: Keller’s final spring outing on March 22 was 3 2/3 innings, but MLB also reported that Keller will be treated as a regular starter this season. I apply only a small -0.1 outs opening-week leash adjustment.

Final projection

17.8 base
- 0.5 road
+ 0.0 day
+ 0.0 park
- 0.1 build-up

Final projected outs: 17.2

That is 1.7 outs above the line of 15.5

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1826-1538-66 ATS (54.3%), while double-digit road favorites are 392-320-15 ATS (55.1%). Similarly, double-digit road favorites after the All-Star break are 194-107-6 ATS (64.5%) with a non-division game on deck, including 134-71-3 ATS (65.4%) since the beginning of the 2016-17 season. San Antonio falls into profitable 315-252-10 ATS (55.6%) and 265-204-11 ATS (56.5%) statistical profile indicators of mine that date to 1999 and invest on NBA road favorites of greater than eight points with certain turnover margins. Covering a spread this large is challenging, but it's worth mentioning that favorites with lines greater than -17 have covered the spread 49 times out of 87 games (56.3%) after the All-Star break. More importantly, NBA favorites with odds greater than -12 that are not on a prolonged losing streak are 336-257-10 ATS (56.7%), provided one additional parameter is met. Finally, the Spurs find support in a profitable 342-213-12 ATS (61.6%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 230-141-5 ATS (62%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Lay the points with the San Antonio Spurs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Perhaps we have underestimated the Braves a bit after their sharp regression last season. Injuries, among other things, were a problem last year, so we keep an eye on those developments as the new campaign progresses. The rotation already has some new injury concerns; the jury remains out.

There is one major difference from last year, however, at least at the outset, when Atlanta was forced on the road to play three at San Diego against the Padres and four up the I-5 at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers. Almost predictably, it was a disaster, the Braves lost all seven, and never really recovered.

Now, Atlanta has opened at home, with Chris Sale and the bullpen blanking the Royals 6-0 on Thursday. Saturday starter Reynaldo Lopez is off of shoulder surgery, so keep an eye on him, but new skipper Walt Weiss will have his bullpen ready for extra work if needed. The Braves might have some cushion as the bats were alive in the opener, with three homers (Ozzie Albies, 2025 NL Rookie fo the Year Drake Baldwin, and Michael Harris II), and a good chance Saturday to hit KC starter Michael Wacha, who struggled in the Cactus League, posting a 6.89 ERA in just 15 2/3 IP, not looking ready for the real season to begin. Meanwhile, the Royals offense could only cobble together five hits in the Thursday opener. Let's see if we can catch some lightning in a bottle with the Braves in the first week. Play Braves on Run Line

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Getting down on this one for the "Elite 8" action right at the open of trading. The market is just coming out as I am writing this at 1:30am ET on Saturday morning. Michigan opens as either a (-7) or (-7.5) depending on which Sportsbook.

The Wolverines looked dominate against Alabama in the second half of that game. They controlled the tempo and were stronger on the boards. Now up against Tennessee who will look to really pound the offensive glass, which is the main reason they got here grabbing second chance points against Iowa State. The matchup changes against Michigan who is a lot stronger and tougher team than Iowa St (BTW without their best player). Michigan is the play and I expect money to come in on the Wolverines so sooner rather than later would likely be the smarter entry point. For the Elite 8 free bet- Bet Michigan.

🏀 5% NCAA ELITE 8 "MAX LIMIT" CBB SUN BEST BET (45-26) $$

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Malaga vs Leganes
La Liga 2, Saturday, 1:30pm ET

Play: Malaga ML
Odds at Time of Release: -115
Line Parameter: Line good to -130

Malaga are in very good form right now, unbeaten in L/5 (W4 D1) and losing just 2 of L/15 (W11 D2 L2), with both losses coming on the road. They also have the best home record in the league (W10 D5 L1), scoring 35 goals and conceding 19 (+16 goal difference), and have won 6 of L/7 as hosts. Plus, they have a +0.40 xG difference/game at home, and they are currently sitting 4th with 54 points, just 1 point behind Almeria and Deportivo La Coruna, so a win here could potentially push them to 2nd spot (which leads to automatic promotion to the La Liga).

Up against them are Leganes, who are sitting 17th with 37 points and just 6 points above the relegation zone. Leganes are coming off a 5-2 home win vs Ceuta, but take that result with a grain of salt because that match was at home, and Ceuta are one of the worst away sides in the league (W3 D4 L9) and have the worst away defense with 33 conceded goals. That was Ceuta's first win after a 5-match win-less streak (W0 D2 L3), and they've been quite bad on the road lately, going win-less in L/5 (W0 D1 L4), conceding 2+ goals in all 4 losses.

Malaga are better in pretty much every statistical category, and they know that a win here could push them inside the automatic promotion spots.

Take 3% on Malaga ML (-115), line good to -130

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

While I I had the Golden Knights in Thursday's OT loss to the Oilers, I'm willing to give them another shot this evening. Games and points are becoming critically important and I expect to see the best of the Knights:

Coach Cassidy: "We're just trying to get our game together and get in the playoffs."

Vegas' Ivan Barbashev: "Every single game is going to be like a playoff game. We need points."

While the Caps are still mathematically alive, their playoff hopes are slim. That's due in large part to a poor road record. Look for the Knights to deliver a dagger, as they avenge last month's loss at Washington while earning an important two points. *no play if higher than -160

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Jumping on the Padres in Petco on Saturday night against the Tigers. Really top notch pitching matchup between Flaherty and Vasquez. Hearing a ton of positives about the Friars starter that I believe is a bit underrated heading into the 2026 season. Something to take a small bite on. This missed the client card, but for today's MLB free pick- Bet San Diego as the home dog.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

The Dallas Stars lost their 4 TH game in a row in NY on Thursday and we believe they bounce back in a big way here. Pittsburgh have gone 2-3 in their last 5 and the 2 wins were in shootouts. We have talked at nausea how we are not big fans of the Penguins. The better team gets the win at what we believe is a great price

GOOD to 135

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

It’s difficult for many to come back and bet against a team like Arizona when you just witnessed what they did. The Wildcats hung 109 points on a very good Arkansas squad, but the fact is, the Razorbacks just had no answer for Arizona’s bigs. AZ doesn’t take many 3’s. Instead they rely on their size down low, and it’s been extremely efficient. When you run down the Wildcats metrics, as well as watch them play, you can clearly see why this is a #1 seed. After all, Arizona has lost just 2 games all season to go along with 35 wins.

That being said, Purdue has been overlooked in this tournament and is catching enough points to make them “bet on” material here. First of all, Purdue ranks #1 in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, 12^th in 3-point shooting percentage, and 18^th inside the arc. The Boilermakers aren’t going to stop Arizona’s bigs, but they have some talented size of their own to compete. Trey Kaufman-Renn beat Texas with a last second put back. He’s a true 4 that can score and help bang in the paint. The other key player is Oscar Cluff, as his play will determine the outcome in a big way.

I’ve said for a while now that Purdue moves the ball as well as anyone. They’re versatile, can score from anywhere, and their best players have been together for a long time, something extremely rare in today’s NIL world. Expect the Boilermakers to stay within the number as they give Arizona a battle in San Jose. Take Purdue.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

Purdue has won seven straight games, which is significant because NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off four or more consecutive wins are 28-8-1 ATS (77.8%) in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round, covering by an average margin of +4.7 points per game. Arizona ranks 44th in college basketball for pace with 71.1 possessions per 40 minutes, but fast-paced teams like the Wildcats are 125-163-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 63-86 ATS (42.3%) since 2020. In contrast, Purdue plays at a much more methodical pace, ranking 321st in pace (65.3). Historically, the slower-paced teams have controlled the tempo and had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Arizona are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Boilermakers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Behind an offense ranked 23rd in the nation in points per game (86.7), the Wildcats have covered the spread in four straight games. Based on its recent point spread success, Arizona falls into a negative 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%) college basketball system that dates to 2014 and invests against certain teams with potent offenses entering off two or more consecutive ATS wins. This situation is 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Finally, Arizona is just 8-13-1 ATS (38.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2014, including 4-8 SU and 3-7 ATS (30%) from the Sweet 16 Round forward, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 3.8 points per game. Grab the inflated number with the Purdue Boilermakers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

This is a rematch from their first fight back in 2021. A very competitive scrappy back and forth bout in which strikes landed were identical. Barber secured 3 of 5 takedowns but Grasso edged out the decision victory. A lot has changed since, Grasso became UFC champion but losing the belt in a trilogy with Valentina Shevchenko. While Barber went on a 7 fight win streak which forced this rematch. Stylistically, I really like the improvements she'd made with a style that's extremely judge friendly by bullying opponents. In WMMA sometimes all you need is a mix of being overly aggressive, marching forward and throw volume. Optically it's great for the judges as they control the center of the cage dictating pace. Maycee's done an excellent job pushing forward staying in opponents faces and winning positionally. A massive advantage for Barber is her strength and physicality, leveraging it in the clinch or on takedown attempts dragging opponents to the mat. Over her last 4 fights securing 8 takedowns on just 11 attempts and believe she'll seek path of least resistance. On the other hand, Grasso's weakness is her physicality. Good boxer with fast hands but lacks power & strength which Maycee will capitalize on. This leads into her vulnerable takedown defense which Shevchenko completely exposed. Over there trilogy Valentina landed 16 takedowns on just 25 attempts. That's 72% Shevchenko secured takedowns as well as having 30 minutes of control time over 3 fights. Insanely, high! Now I'm not saying Maycee Barber is as good as Shevchenko... but what I am saying is the path to victory is widely available on Saturday night. Fully expect her banking rounds in top control. Now out of Barber's last 7 wins, 6 of those were by decision. Out of Grasso's 5 career losses, 4 of which are by decision. Give me Barber to dominate control time winning on the scorecards!

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

ARG PRI DIV :

Total Under 1.5 (104)...(3%) - thru Under 1.5 (-120)

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago