Free Sports Predictions MAR 19: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

(555) Cleveland Cavaliers at (556) Chicago Bulls: Spread

Cleveland Cavaliers -13.0 (-110)

• System Performance:

  • The system stating that away teams playing with revenge for a loss as a double-digit favorite have an ATS record of 71-33-5 (68.3%) since 2013 suggests that teams eager to avenge a previous loss tend to perform well against the spread when favored significantly.

• Cleveland Cavaliers Performance:

  • Recent ATS Success: The Cavaliers have been strong, boasting a 6-2 (75%) ATS record, with only one ATS loss occurring in a situation with a 0-1 rest deficit.

  • Scheduling Context: Cleveland is currently playing their 4th road game in the last 5 games overall, but they have had exactly one day's rest between each game, including a day of rest before the game against New Orleans. This suggests they are managing rest effectively despite the travel challenges.

• Chicago Bulls Performance:

  • Recent Struggles: The Bulls have struggled significantly with an 8-16 (33%) ATS record since January 26. This indicates issues in covering spreads and overall performance.

  • Recent Game Issues: After playing Toronto last night and losing by a significant margin (139-109), they are now 2-7 (22%) ATS with no rest since November 22, with one cover only occurring when both teams had no rest, and another cover on the road.

Released/revised 55 minute(s) ago

Sparta Prague vs AZ Alkmaar
Conference League, Thursday, 4pm ET

Play: Sparta Prague -0.25
Odds at Time of Release: +100
Line Parameter: Line good to -115

Sparta Prague lost the first leg on the road by 2-1, which is very manageable, as they now take this tie at home, where a win by exactly 1 goal will send this match to extra time, a win by 2 goals will see them through, while a Draw or another loss would see them eliminated.

Sparta Prague are very strong at home, where they've lost just 1 of 19 matches in all competitions this season (W14 D4 L1), and with a W5 D1 L0 in the Conference League, where they've kept 4 clean sheets, scored 17 goals and conceded just 2. They do have a bunch of injuries, but they've learned to live life without most of them.

Alkmaar have been hit or miss on the road this season (W10 D1 L11), albeit in a much more competitive league than Sparta Prague's. Even so, they've done poorly in the Conference League (W3 D0 L4), with two of those wins coming in the Conference League Qualifiers vs teams that are much worse than Sparta Prague, and a single win in 3 league phase matches.

This team can either have a perfect game, where everything goes to plan, but more often than not, they show disturbing signs and lose even to the unlikeliest of opponents. They are also missing some key players, and this is a team that heavily relies on striker Troy Parrott's performance. He had NINE shots in the first leg, and is their main offensive threat. If Sparta Prague can contain him, they definitely have a fighting chance.

The Play is Sparta Prague -0.25 (+100), line good to -115. That's a split line between Sparta Prague -0.5 and Sparta Prague PK, which means that we fully cash this ticket if Sparta Prague win, we get half a loss and half a push if it's a Draw, and we lose the entire stake if Alkmaar win.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

3% Hawaii 1st Half (4:25 ET): Please note that I am playing just the first half, not the full game here. There's a lot of hype surrounding 4-seed Arkansas heading into the NCAA Tournament, rightly so, but the Razorbacks were not done any favors by the committee. After winning the SEC Tournament on Sunday, they have been sent out to Portland for this first round matchup with 13-seed Hawaii. Meanwhile, the trip won't be nearly as long for the underdog, who stayed in Vegas after winning the Big West Tournament.

Now there's no doubt that Arkansas looked impressive last weekend, winning three games in three days. They have perhaps the best player in College Basketball in Darius Acuff Jr. But don't be surprised if the Hogs struggle early in this first round matchup. That's because - defensively - Hawaii is a unique matchup. Here are the Warriors' numbers at that end of the floor: top 20 in effective FG%, top 30 in 3-point % allowed (they don’t allow many three-point attempts either), and top 30 in 2-point FG% allowed.

Hawaii also has size on the interior, most notably 7-footer Isaac Johnson. They should be able to score against an Arkansas team that has allowed its opponents to shoot 53% from two-point range over the course of the season. During SEC play, only Georgia allowed a higher rate of close 2-point attempts. I find it interesting that the Razorbacks seem like one of the few favorites the public ISN'T betting against in the first round. HC John Calipari traditionally has not been good ATS as a big favorite in this tournament. I think Hawaii keeps it close - for a half. 3% Hawaii 1st Half (Play to +7.5)

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Midtjylland vs Nottingham
Europa League, Thursday, 1:45pm ET

Play: Midjtylland +0.25
Odds at Time of Release: -116
Line Parameter: Line good to -125

We cashed our 5% Max Bet in the Europa League last week with the first leg of this tie, with our Midtjylland +1 cashing easily as they won outright. Now they are taking the tie at home, where another win or a draw would see them through. A loss by exactly one goal would send this match to extra time, and a loss by 2+ goals will see them eliminated.

Midtjylland clearly prioritized the Europa League, as they rotated in their weekend match, which was a match for the Championship group, and they are very much in the title conversation. But clearly their focus is on the Europa League, where they have won 6 home matches in a row, keeping clean sheets in 5 of 6.

Nottingham (and I talked about this extensively in my 5% write-up last week), are battling relegation in the EPL, sitting at 29 points and tied with West Ham who are below the red zone. Nottingham are playing away at Tottenham on Sunday, which is THE match of the season for them, as Tottenham are also relegation candidates with 30 points. Not sure where Nottingham's focus is at the moment, but my estimate is that the economic disaster that would befall them if they get relegated from the EPL would be quite big.

Not sure if they are truly interested in the Europa League, as even if they do go past Midtjylland they will meet the winner of Porto/Stuttgart in the quarter-finals, which are to be played during a period where Nottingham will have a very tough schedule in the EPL. I don't think they can balance two competitions at once.

That being said, Midjtylland played cat and mouse with Nottingham in both matches this season, winning BOTH on the road. Now back home, and with their eyes set on the quarter-finals, I like Midtjylland to avoid the loss here.

The Play is Midtjylland +0.25 (-116), line good to -125. That's a split line between Midtjylland +0.5 and Midtjylland PK, which means that we fully cash this ticket if they win, we get half win and half push if it's a draw, and we lose the entire stake if they lose by any score.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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Starter edge: Twins, small.
Abel’s current spring line is much better than Bello’s: 1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.1 IP for Abel versus 9.72 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 8.1 IP for Bello. That points to a slight Minnesota first-5 edge.

Full-game edge: Red Sox, tiny.
Boston gets the home bump, and the overall spring records are close enough that I do not want to overreact to one pitcher window: Twins 8-15-1, 4-8 away and Red Sox 11-12, 8-4 home.

Weather/park context:
Action’s game page shows 74°F, 0% rain, 14 mph wind at JetBlue Park, which is mildly favorable for offense.

Fair odds

Value vs book

Betting lean
Twins moneyline (+124):

• Starter edge: Minnesota has Mick Abel going, and his current spring line is much better than Brayan Bello’s. ESPN lists Abel at 0-1, 1.35 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.1 IP, 17 K, 1 BB versus Bello at 0-1, 9.72 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 12 H allowed. That is the cleanest reason to like MIN.

• Price is generous for a spring game: +124 implies roughly 44.6% win probability, while spring games are inherently noisy because starters are short-leashed and bench/prospect innings take over fast. In that kind of variance-heavy environment, grabbing plus money with the better current starter has appeal.

• Boston is overpriced off brand name/home field: The Red Sox are 11-12 and the Twins are 8-15, but the pitcher matchup does not support Boston being this chunky a favorite. The market is charging a premium despite Bello’s rough spring.

• Bello’s current form is shaky enough to create early scoring chances: A 9.72 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in spring is not just bad luck fluff; it signals traffic on the bases, which is dangerous in short outings where one messy inning can decide the side.

• Boston’s pitching depth is not pristine right now: Action’s injury page for this game shows Tanner Houck out, Patrick Sandoval out, Kutter Crawford out, and Johan Oviedo questionable. Even in spring, that can thin out the cleaner bridge options behind Bello.

• Road/home split is not enough to cancel the pitching edge: Boston is better at home, but spring home-field matters less than regular season home-field, especially when the biggest edge in the game is the starting pitcher matchup.

My quick betting read: best argument is Abel > Bello, and +124 is enough cushion to take the variance.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Off a 2-0 loss to the Sabres and looking to close out their homestand with a victory, we should be able to expect a big effort from the Golden Knights. While the Knights have Friday off, note that the Mammoth have a big Friday night showdown against the Ducks.

Forward Mitch Marner, who nearly tied the game late in third period, said this of the Buffalo loss: "I thought we played a good game. We had a lot of good looks. Kudos to their goalie. He made a lot of big saves. But I liked our game. We were playing physically, we played fast, we made plays."

Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy added: "You're going to lose games. I'm not disappointed with the way we played. I'm not upset ... "

Monday's upset win at Dallas notwithstanding ,the Mammoth aren't as strong away from Utah. I expect home ice to prove significant. Play Vegas (no play if line higher than -150)

Ben Burns, the #1 College Hoops Handicapper of All-time, is 5-1 the past three days and 10-2 his last 12 CBB selections. On a +306 unit hoops heater, he's also a perfect 3-0 with this month's biggest (5%) plays. Next one goes today!

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Let’s start with what’s going to confuse people — a 9-seed favored over an 8-seed, and a Mountain West team laying points to a Big East team.

Right away, the public is going to say Villanova is “free money.” Mountain West teams have struggled in the tournament for years, and the brand name plus conference perception will push bettors in that direction. But when something looks that easy, it usually isn’t. That’s the trap.

People love to lean on seeding and conference labels, but the oddsmakers — the ones taking real money — are telling you Utah State is the better team. And that’s what matters.

The Mountain West’s past tournament failures? Irrelevant to this specific Utah State team. This year, the Mountain West only sent one team — and it was clearly their best.

Meanwhile, the Big East wasn’t exactly deep. After UConn and St. John’s, it dropped off into a group of pretty average teams.

The public will back Villanova based on name recognition and conference bias. I’m not falling for it.

TAKE UTAH ST

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Pennsylvania was the surprise team to come out of the Ivy League.  The best team in the conference was Yale by a pretty wide margin, but the Quakers got hot late and upset the Bulldogs to get this bid.  However, Penn is not a good team, and they may be missing their best player as well.  This is a monumental step-up in class against an Illinois team poised to make a deep run in this tournament.  The Illini lost to Wisconsin in overtime after blowing a 15-point lead with just 10 minutes left in their first conference tournament game.  Illinois has had 5 days to regroup and get ready for this matchup, so we can expect a big effort for all 40 minutes.  This is a complete mismatch, so lay the points with Illinois in this game on Thursday night.

Play ILLINOIS (-).

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Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Wisconsin is ranked 15th in the nation in free-throw percentage (78.6), which is notable because NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 179-137-3 ATS (56.6%) since 2012, including 117-86 ATS (57.6%) since 2018. In contrast, the Panthers are converting 74.3% of their free-throw attempts, ranking 105th in the country. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 139-97-3 ATS (58.9%) versus opponents shooting worse than 75% from the charity stripe, including 87-56 ATS (60.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Let’s also note that NCAA Tournament teams shooting 77% or better from the foul line are 79-54 ATS (59.4%), including 59-35 ATS (62.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.5 points per game. High Point possesses an up-tempo offense that ranks 56th in the country in Pace (70.9), which represents a team’s average number of possessions per 40 minutes. That metric is significant because fast-paced college basketball teams (e.g., 70.0 or greater) are 109-149-8 ATS (42.2%) in NCAA Tournament games, including 47-72 ATS (39.5%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of -3.2 points per game. In contrast, Wisconsin’s style of play is more methodical, ranking 146th in Pace (68.9). Since 2011, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like High Point are 85-124-4 ATS (40.7%) versus slow-paced teams like the Badgers, including 38-62 ATS (38%) since 2019, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of -3.6 points per game. Lay the points with the Wisconsin Badgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 19.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Phil Martelli Jr's VCU squad beat USF and Virginia Tech this season. They sport a (27-7) overall record out of a pretty strong A-10 Conference that got two bids this year. I like their draw against a susceptible North Carolina team without their best player and really struggles guarding the 3 point line. Sprinkle some on the moneyline for the 11 seed to win outright. I went into more detail on the NCAA Tournament show below...

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

[FREE PICK] on Queens Nc ATS | Good until +23.5.

Everyone loves a good underdog story in March, and while this would take a big effort to pull off outright, Queens shouldn’t be overlooked. The Royals have good size across the lineup with multiple wings, which helps them match up better with Purdue than people might expect. We’ve already seen the Boilermakers fall to a lower seed in this tournament before, so the upset factor is always in play. Queens is also a very efficient offensive team, ranking No. 15 in effective field goal percentage. If they start hitting from deep, they can hang around. Purdue can score a ton as well, but they’ve had some tighter games earlier in the season against mid-major teams with strong offenses, including wins over Oakland by 10 and Akron by 18. Taking the points is the right play.

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

Second-year head coach Gerry McNamara led Siena to its first NCAA tournament appearance in sixteen years, and the Saints possess a veteran roster ranked 26th nationally in "minutes continuity" on KenPom, a metric that measures a team's roster turnover from one year to the next. Siena is one of the most reliable teams at the free-throw line, making 76.9% of its attempts, ranking 43rd in the nation. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 179-137-3 ATS (56.6%), including 117-86 ATS (57.6%) since 2018. In contrast, the Blue Devils are one of the worst free-throw shooting teams in the country, ranking 200th at 72.4%. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament teams shooting 75% or better from the foul line are 139-97-3 ATS (58.9%) versus opponents shooting worse than 75% from the charity stripe, including 87-56 ATS (60.8%) since 2018, covering the spread by an average margin of +2.4 points per game. Siena enters the NCAA tournament off a 64-54 win over Merrimack as 1.5-point underdogs, which is significant because NCAA tournament teams coming off a game in which they allowed 55 points or less are 148-113-2 ATS (56.7%). Similarly, NCAA tournament underdogs arriving off a game in which they allowed 60 points or fewer are 139-102-3 ATS (57.7%), while underdogs of +6 or greater are 62-35 ATS (63.9%) following a game in which they allowed fewer than 59 points. Grab the points with the Siena Saints as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 19.

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

Free Play: Shem Rock (+110)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has gone 264-182 to the Under (59.2%), including 158-98 UNDER (61.7%) since 2021, going under by an average margin of -2.8 points per game. Since 2016, Round 1 games with totals of 149 or more points are 39-22-1 to the Under (63.9%), while early round games with totals of 135 points or greater are 158-117-2 to the Under (57.5%), including 114-69 UNDER (62.3%) since 2017. Louisville's up-tempo offense ranks 41st in the country in Pace (71.1), which represents a team’s average number of possessions per 40 minutes. That metric is significant because fast-paced college basketball teams (e.g., 70.0 or greater) are 146-117-3 (55.5%) to the Under in NCAA Tournament games, including 73-46 UNDER (61.3%) since 2019. Since 2012, American Conference underdogs are 11-5-1 to the Under (68.8%) in the NCAA tournament, going under by an average margin of -4.6 points per game. Since 2012, college basketball teams averaging a certain against-the-spread margin are 72-49-4 to the Under (59.5%), including 34-10 UNDER (77.3%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season, going under by an average margin of -7.2 points per game. Finally, South Florida is 58-28 to the Under (67.4%) following a game in which their opponent had a certain number of rebounds, provided they own a win percentage of .458 or greater. Take the Under in the South Florida/Louisville game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 19.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Highpoint had 30 wins this season and they hold the nation’s longest active winning streak at 14 games. This fast paced offense averages 90 points per contest and they’re top 5 in the nation in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Obviously this was against lower level competition, but catching double digits is the side we want in our pocket. Wisconsin is no stranger to being bounced early from the tournament and we’ll look for the Panthers to at least stay within the number. Take High Point.

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Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

(755) Wright State at (756) Virginia: Total

Total Under 145.5 (-110)

Round #1 games with a total 128+ are 57-94 (36.5%) O/U

Virginia is 13-20-1 O/U this season with the #271 tempo and #354 defensive tempo.

The Cavs are 3-11 O/U as a Fav of -12 & higher.
Wright St's offense is #228 avg a shot every 17.9 seconds.

The Raiders are 3-8 O/U vs non-conf foes

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Who can forget the 2023 NCAA Tournament when #16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson stunned #1 seed Purdue 63-58? FDU became the second-ever 16-seed to beat a 1-seed. It marked the second consecutive year that a double-digit seed eliminated the Boilermakers. (St. Peter's beat them in 2022.)

The Boilermakers learned their lesson. They took care of business in the first round each of the past two seasons. Two years ago, they beat Grambling by 28, eking out a cover as a 27-point favorite. Last season, they won by 12, while laying eight points against High Point. This year provides another favorable first round opponent as Purdue is matched up against Queens University.

The Royals faced some decent teams this year as they played Auburn, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia and Villanova. The problem is that they lost those games by 41, 28, 38, 25 and 20, an average of 30.4 points per game. With memories of 2023 still fresh in the minds of Purdue fans, the Boilermakers should keep the pedal to the metal the whole way and win by 25+. *Good up to -25

Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper Of All-Time.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago