Free Sports Predictions APR 17: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports
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The Prez
Major League Baseball
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Love what we are getting from the Rays this season, and they head into this game with a big pitching advantage as the Pirates don't have anyone left to throw in the bullpen for this game after it basically burned through all their top relievers in the Nationals series. I really like Nick Martinez in this spot as he's made some really good starts for the Rays and does a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark as the Pirates have become a HR or bust type offense. Bubba Chandler is a medicare pitcher who throws hard and gets hit hard. That's not great against this contact hitting the Rays team, who doesn't strikeout a lot, but certainly makes teams have to play defense, and the Pirates are not a very good defensive team. I think this is a great price for the Rays who have a big advantage on the mound and in the bullpen.
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Prez won his NBA 4% Total Tuesday, won again Wed and Friday, he has found another easy Winner for Friday night that you so not want to miss. Prez has become an NBA Betting legend and NOT had a losing NBA Season in what will be 5 straight years and is up almost 100 units of profit over that time.Prez is an NBA Playoff Betting Profit Machine!!This ye ...
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HUGE STEP OUT BET: 90% of Prez’ bets are 2/3% bets, so when he finds a 4 or 5% betting spot, you must join him. He has only had SIX Basketball 5% bets and is 5-1 in them this year in them. He won his NBA 4% Total Tuesday, won again Wed and this Sat is his 3rd NBA 5% all year and he is a PERFECT 2-0 in them.Prez is an NBA Playoff Betting Profit Ma ...
Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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906 San Francisco at Washington
This line is simply too high right now to back the Giants, even though they have the more talented starter in Logan Webb. He is opposed by Zack Littell who’s a bit underrated in the betting market.
The Giants are not a good hitting team, ranking 27th in wRC+ on the season. Just ahead of the Mets, Reds and White Sox. Say what you want about the Nationals pitching, but the bats are live. Currently ranking 4th in the league in wRC+. Behind only the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. Nice underdog value in the nation’s capital.
PLAY WASHINGTON
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on CHA.
I had the Heat +5.5 in the 1st Play-in game, and I said that Miami had a significant advantage when it came to experience and coaching. That won't be the case here against Orlando. Only one of these teams looks like they want to play in the post-season, and Orlando isn't that team. The Magic look soft, and their coach will surely be fired as soon as the season is over. That might happen sooner than later.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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Take Charlotte – Orlando UNDER (#573-574)
The ‘Daily Double’ video below features my take on BOTH NBA Play-In Games for Friday Night. Here’s a brief synopsis of the Hornets – Magic total recommendation. I’m in play for my clients with the side here, but I have a ‘bettable opinion’ on the total as well. There’s all kinds of pressure and playoff intensity expected tonight in Orlando – the winner moves on to the playoffs; the loser goes home for the summer. That’s not great news for Over bettors – we can expect both of these defenses to bring their ‘A’ game tonight. Perhaps just as importantly, this is not a game where we can or should expect much pace. Charlotte just got pushed to the limit in an uptempo affair against the Heat, but their 18-9 SU record after the All Star Break came about with the #29 pace out of 30 NBA teams, as slow as molasses and they have no intention of pushing pace tonight. Orlando’s offense still hasn’t found a rhythm and it’s mid-April, held to just 97 points on 41% shooting in their loss at Philly earlier in the week. Expect a relatively low scoring game, start to finish. Take the UNDER.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Heading to Little Havana in Miami for the Brewers and Marlins and betting this one over. Two pitchers that have major question marks are the angle. Junk the starter for the Fish got rocked his last time out against Detroit. Brewers still undecided as I type this around midnight on the east coast. It looks like they will call up Robert Glasser from AAA Nashville to take the hill. He was knocked around in his last minor league outing. The Marlins bats have been surprisingly good this year, particularly at home. This one likely has runs in bunches. For Friday's free bet- Bet the over.
Free Pick Recap: 3-1 (+2.93 units)
Thursday- Rockies (+146) WINNER
Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
Wednesday- Cubs (+122) WINNER
Tuesday- Backs (+135) WINNER
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Don Buster
NHL Hockey
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GOOD AT 6
We make a small play on the OVER here. Yes, it is the playoffs but it is also the first round and these teams will not need any feeling out time. They played 4 times this season and 3 of the 4 games went way OVER this number. There are too many guys on the ice that can put the puck in the net. These teams also have the Number 2 and Number 3 PP's in the NHL. As this series goes on we will be watching these totals but to start we believe the line should be 6 and will be 6 come gametime.
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Ralph Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(903) Atlanta Braves at (904) Philadelphia Phillies: Total
First Inning Over +0.5 (-130) Martín Pérez (LHP), Taijuan Walker (RHP) Must Start
Atlanta is now 5-2 YRFI on the road including 4 straight YRFI.
Philadelphia is 9-4 YRFI their L13 games overall.
Perez is 2-0 YRFI & Walker is 3-0 YRFI with a 7.36 ERA
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Andy Lang
Lacrosse
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This sets up as a classic tight, defensive matchup with plenty of reasons to expect a lower-scoring game. Penn State comes in desperate, trying to snap a two-game skid with their postseason positioning on the line, which typically leads to more disciplined, slower-paced play.
Rutgers’ offensive situation is a major factor. They’re coming off a 12-2 loss to Maryland with multiple key players out, and their status remains uncertain. Even at full strength, this hasn’t been a high-powered offense at home—UNDER 20.5 has hit in 6 of their 7 home games, with the only outlier coming against a weak Bellarmine team.
Penn State’s defense has also taken a step forward. Their netminding has improved significantly, helping cash the under in 3 of their last 5 games, including holding teams in check in competitive matchups.
There’s also a strong situational angle. With these teams likely to meet again in the Big Ten Tournament next weekend, and Rutgers hosting the later rounds, neither side will want to reveal too much or get into a wide-open game.
Add in Rutgers’ four-game losing streak to Penn State, including a 12-4 loss last year, and this projects as a more cautious, grind-it-out battle.
Everything points toward a slower tempo and fewer goals—take the UNDER.
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HALF PRICE 4% Boxing Best Bet...7-2 Run
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play AGAINST favorites of -3 to -9 with a win percentage between 51% and 60% that are coming off a home win by no more than 3 points
Applies to Charlotte.
35-11-3 ATS (76%) since the 2019 season.
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34-10 77% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP PLAY: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.22 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 units#1 in NBA profit since last season at +180.22 unitsToday’s NBA Top Play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 34-10 record since the 2002 season, good for an elite 77.3% win rate.When an ...
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Dwayne Bryant
Major League Baseball
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Key Situational Angle:
In the first game of a series, play ON road favorites of -150 or more if their opponent played yesterday and the game went into extra innings.
Applies to San Francisco.
54-12 (82% win rate, 28.7% ROI) since the 2008 season, winning by an average of 3.2 runs!
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34-10 77% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP PLAY: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.22 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 units#1 in NBA profit since last season at +180.22 unitsToday’s NBA Top Play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 34-10 record since the 2002 season, good for an elite 77.3% win rate.When an ...
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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Brazil Serie B
Total Over 2.25 (-105)...(3%) - thru Over 2.25 (-125)
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Will Rogers
Major League Baseball
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FREE PICK | Los Angeles Dodgers - Run Line | Good until -2.5, -140.
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow/Tomoyuki Sugano (Action).
This series should be wrapped up by the Dodgers pretty fast in my opinion. The pitching from LA is significantly better and the batting lineup is one of the biggest mismatches that you'll ever see this season. Not that I have anything against the Rockies. They are just inexperienced and don't have great discipline yet, with the worst chase % rate so far this year. The Dodgers square the ball up and hit the barrel at the 2nd best rate in the MLB behind only the Yankees currently. In Colorado, the ball should fly. LAD wins this by a lot.
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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2% Take Phoenix (#576)
The Warriors beat the Nuggets after the All Star Break to improve their record to 30-27 at the time. Since that victory, the Warriors are 8-18 SU in their last 26 games. Six of those eight wins came against absolute bottom feeders: Memphis, Dallas, Washington (twice), Brooklyn and Sacramento. Against playoff teams (and ‘play-in’ teams), the Warriors are 2-14 SU, 7-9 ATS, consistently struggling to step up in class.
Yes, Steve Kerr’s squad got hot with a 43 point, ‘eight made three’s’ fourth quarter at home against the Clippers on Wednesday. They finished the game with a 57% shooting effort from the floor and 19 made three pointers. I’m not expecting a repeat performance from the single worst team in the NBA off a win full season, a woeful 12-25 ATS in this role.
In the history of the play-in games (they started in 2021), no #7 seed has lost twice at home and failed to make the postseason. The Suns defense ranks ‘head and shoulders’ ahead of the Clippers defense that got torched on Wednesday. Phoenix has an extra day’s rest and no travel; Golden State is the ‘public’ choice tonight. Take the Suns.
Line Parameter: 2% at -4 or lower, 1.5% at -4.5 or higher
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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BAL at CLE — April 17, 2026
Projected score: CLE 4.7, BAL 3.9
Projected first 5 innings: CLE 2.6, BAL 2.0
The game setup leans slightly Cleveland. Progressive Field is outdoors, and the Cleveland forecast around first pitch is in the low-to-mid 50s with cloud cover and later thunder chances, which is a mild drag on carry rather than a strong weather boost. Publicly posted market numbers had Cleveland roughly -135 to -139 and Baltimore roughly +116 to +120, with the full-game total at 8.0.
The lineup context is mixed but still favors Cleveland’s run environment a bit more. Baltimore’s current core is Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Jeremiah Jackson and Samuel Basallo, with Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle unavailable. Cleveland’s current everyday shape is Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Angel Martínez, Juan Brito, Bo Naylor and Brayan Rocchio, with Gabriel Arias out.
Why the model lands there
Chris Bassitt’s 2026 surface form is poor: 9.00 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through 11.0 innings. His April split is 9.45 ERA, and his lone day start was especially rough. Against Cleveland since 2024, the supplied sample is only one start, but it was a 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER outing. One positive for Baltimore is that Bassitt historically has pitched Cleveland better at Progressive Field than his current 2026 form suggests.
Tanner Bibee’s 2026 overall line is shaky too at 6.38 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, but the split structure is more encouraging here: 1.93 ERA at home, and his only home start was his cleanest early outing. The direct history versus Baltimore since 2024 is volatile but usable: 18 2/3 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 16 K, 5 BB in three starts, including one bad clunker and two steadier outings. That makes the Baltimore side live early, but not enough to erase Cleveland’s contextual edge.
Bullpen form narrows the gap. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP overall and 3.72 ERA over its last 3-game slice shown on the matchup board; Cleveland’s bullpen sits at 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP overall. On broader recent form, Cleveland’s full staff has a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last 10 games, while Baltimore’s full staff has been steadier, and Baltimore’s relief group has recent healthy leverage arms in place while Cleveland has had heavier contact exposure.
The recent offense layer is close, but Baltimore gets docked for roster attrition and Cleveland gets docked for the “returning home from road” flat spot. Baltimore is 6-4 over its last 10 with a .243 team average, while Cleveland is also 6-4 over its last 10 and owns a .713 team OPS over that span. Season-wide, Baltimore has the better overall batting line at .245/.334/.393 while Cleveland is at .229/.314/.383, but Cleveland’s healthy top-of-order continuity is better for this one-game setup.
Projected boxscore values
Split | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 2.0 | 2.6 |
Full game | 3.9 | 4.7 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Bassitt | 5 0/3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Tanner Bibee | 5 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
Side | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus minus fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE ML | 58.5% | -141 | -135 to -139 | slight edge |
BAL ML | 41.5% | +141 | +116 to +120 | worse than fair |
First-5 total model:
Projected F5 total: 4.6
Market | Projected | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
F5 Over 4.0/4.5 range | 4.6 | slight over lean |
F5 Under 4.0/4.5 range | 4.6 | no clear edge |
First-5 team totals:
Team | Projected F5 TT | Reference line | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 2.0 | 1.5 | -145 | +145 |
CLE | 2.6 | 2.5 | -102 | +102 |
Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Baltimore Orioles: .727
Cleveland Guardians: .697
30-point ranking board
Category | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve rank | Chris Bassitt 25/30 | Tanner Bibee 18/30 |
Bullpen last 10 days ERA+WHIP rank | 10/30 | 14/30 |
Lineup last 10 days runs + contact quality rank | 11/30 | 13/30 |
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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger
NBA Basketball
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Good to OV20.5 -110
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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In three head-to-head matchups against the Warriors this season Booker averaged 39.4 points + rebounds + assists per game with Golden State giving up the seventh most points to point guards per game this season. We’re well aware Booker had just 27 points + rebounds + assists in the team’s 114-110 loss to Portland on Tuesday, but Booker got in foul trouble early which messed up any rhythm Booker may have had during that game playing at least 36 minutes per game over his last five. We could see him notch 40 minutes tonight and on the season Booker has averaged 42.9 points + rebounds + assists per 40 minutes played. On the season Golden State ranked 22nd in rebounding rate and sat bottom half of the league in total assists allowed per game to the opposition. These two teams haven’t met since December 20 with Booker attempting 27 shots that game and attempting over 20 per game across his last five. With the winner of this game taking on the Thunder in the first round, let’s go with Booker to fill up the stat sheet going over 36.5 points + rebounds + assists on Friday night in front of the home crowd.
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Andy Lang
Mixed Martial Arts
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Robert Valentin ML vs Julien Leblanc
This is a clear step-down spot for Valentin and a matchup he should take full advantage of. Leblanc is largely on this card due to location and popularity in Canada, but the skill set doesn’t match this level. His striking isn’t UFC caliber, lacks power, and he doesn’t offer much on the ground.
Valentin, on the other hand, has faced much tougher competition. His recent losses came against high-level wrestlers and a dangerous striker—styles that exposed specific weaknesses. That’s not what he’s dealing with here.
This is a much more favorable matchup stylistically. Valentin is the better striker, brings more pressure, and has experience against stronger opponents. He should be able to dictate the pace and overwhelm Leblanc.
Finish is very much in play, but the moneyline keeps it simple in a spot where Valentin has clear advantages across the board.
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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After featuring for the Chisox last season, Aaron Civale gets to pitch against his old team tonight, but now as a member of the A’s after impressing in his three early-season starts (2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP).
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Seattle starter Logan Gilbert projects to give up just 1.9 runs with a 2.80 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Texas’ lineup has hit just .185 (23-124) with a weak .600 OPS against Gilbert in his career. The Rangers will start Jacob deGrom. The righty projects to give up 1.8 earned runs with a 2.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Friday night.
Play UNDER the total.
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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Spain Segunda Division :
Total Over 2.5 (-105)...(3%) - thru Over 2.5 (-125)
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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Argentina Superliga :
Total Over 2.0 (100)...(3%) - thru Over 2 (-125)
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Minnesota arrives in Denver off back-to-back wins over the Rockets (136-132) and Pelicans (132-126), which is noteworthy, as NBA underdogs entering the playoffs off consecutive wins are 235-187-8 to the Under (55.7%), including 108-82-2 UNDER (56.8%) since 2018. The fact that both teams haven’t played since April 12 supports a low-scoring game, as NBA playoff games between well-rested teams are 94-60-2 to the Under (61%) since 2000, including 30-18 UNDER (62.5%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of 3.5 points per game. Since 2004, Game 1s of the opening round of the NBA playoffs are 94-71-3 to the Under (57%), including 25-15 UNDER (62.5%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of 7.3 points per game. Similarly, NBA home teams are 111-86-2 to the Under (56.3%) in Game 1 of a series since 2014. Finally, Denver is coming off five consecutive overs, which triggers a very good 51-29-2 (63.8%) NBA totals system of mine dating to 1998 that invests on the over in certain postseason games involving teams riding an over streak. Take the Under in the Minnesota/Denver game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, April 18.
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Bryan Power
German Bundesliga
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I'd play FC Koln Draw No Bet on Friday as the Billy Goats open matchweek 30 of the Bundesliga season at relegation-threatened St. Pauli. Koln picked up a crucial three points last week by beating Werder Bremen 3-1. As a result, they are now five points clear of the relegation spots, which seems pretty safe with only five matches left to go in the season. Now unbeaten in the last four matches, Koln have found the back of the net eight times the last three weeks.
Meanwhile, St. Pauli still have work to do as they currently occupy 16th place in the table, which would mean going to the relegation playoff. An automatic drop is still not out of the question either. Both Opta and Understat have the Kiezkickers dead last in the Bundesliga when it comes to expected points. Last week's 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Bayern Munich wasn't totally unexpected, but St. Pauli are now winless over their last five matches with only two goals scored.
So not only are we protected (in case of a draw) with - clearly - the more in-form side here, but Koln have owned St. Pauli through the years. Unbeaten in the last seven head to head matchups, including five wins, Koln should get all three points here. The reverse fixture, played back in December, ended in a 1-1 draw. But St. Pauli, the lowest scoring team in the Bundesliga this season, created just 0.14 xG. Koln are also (obviously) in much better form now.
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Charlotte has outperformed all expectations, going from 12-games under .500 to winning 32 of its last 45 games to secure the #9 seed in the NBA Play-In Tournament. Charlotte finished the regular season ranked 11th in the league in Defensive Rating (113.5). More importantly, since the All-Star break, the Hornets rank 7th in Defensive Rating. Orlando also possesses a very good defense, ranking 13th in Defensive Rating (113.6). The Magic also boast one of the league’s best three-point defenses, allowing the fourth fewest number of attempts and the 12th worst percentage league-wide Since 2006, NBA road favorites are 198-153-11 to the Under (56.4%) in postseason play, while Game 1s of the opening round are 94-71-3 to the Under (57%), including 25-15 UNDER (62.5%) since 2020, covering the total by an average of 7.3 points per game. Similarly, NBA home teams are 111-86-2 to the Under (56.3%) in Game 1 of a series since 2014. Finally, NBA playoff games between teams that have four or fewer matchup losses on the season are 283-231-11 to the Under (55.1%) since 2019. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, April 17.
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Will Rogers
NBA Basketball
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Free Pick | on Houston Rockets - ATS | Good until -7.0.
Los Angeles was a completely different team during the season than it is at this given moment. Without the likes of Luka Doncic & Austin Reaves, the Lakers are definitely not as strong. Will that hurt them? Of course. But, we all know what LeBron is capable of in an entire series. That being said, I think that it's going to hurt the Lakers a little bit too much on Saturday evening in Game One. Houston's one of the hottest teams in the NBA coming into this game having won nine of its L10 games. Even though this game is on the road, expect Houston to emerge as the winners.
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Ben Burns
NBA Basketball
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Lots to like about New York. The Knicks are arguably stronger than the team which went to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. They're balanced and experienced. Their 53 regular season wins is the most since 2013. They have an excellent 30-10 home record. They've covered five straight. One might of thought trading Trae Young would hurt the Hawks. It didn't. They went 28-15 after getting rid of Young. However, if you look more closely, many of those 28 wins came against bad and/or short-handed teams. The Hawks still deserve credit for winning those games and getting here. However, I expect the Knicks to be too much for them on Saturday. *good at -6 or better
Released/revised 1 day(s) ago
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Kyle Anthony
Mixed Martial Arts
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~ Adding breakdown soon ~
FREE PLAY: John Castaneda -115
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