Free Sports Predictions OCT 22: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Both teams can score like crazy and have average defenses.

Game totals so far:

Liaoning: 179, 190
Sichuan: 182, 179

All four have reached at least 179.

And both teams have been willing to score immediately rather than spend the first quarter probing.

Projected total: 183.

OVER 178.5 -110

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

(455) Miami Dolphins at (456) New York Jets: Total

Total Under 39.5 (-110)

Both teams have leaned UNDER. Miami's games have gone UNDER in 3 of 5, while the Jets have gone UNDER in 4 of 6 this season. 

A low-scoring game script is plausible. If Miami struggles to score and New York plays from ahead, the Jets may lean on the running game and shorten the game rather than push the pace.

Play: UNDER 39.5

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on 1H Under.

The Ducks are reeling after losing starting QB Dante Moore, and the combination of Brock Thomas and Dylan Raiola have been put together back to back poor performances. Just how bad? Last week they had the worst EPA per drop back of any QB in the country that week. The previous week Raiola had the worst EPA per drop back of any QB in the county in any game over the past three years. Illinois lost their starter, and will be starting a freshman in his first career start. Expect an ugly game here in Illinois on Saturday.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Tulsa returns home off back-to-back road games with the last being a blowout win over Rice.  The Golden Hurricane are now in a bad spot as they must face the triple-option offense of Army on a short week.  Tulsa hasn’t been able to stop the Black Knights recently; allowed 74 points in the last 2 meetings.  Army comes into this game in terrific current form after winning 3 of their last 4 games while scoring 105 total points in their last 3 games.  Tulsa is also a team that wants to play at a fast pace, but Army is very deliberate while play ball control and running the clock.  This is simply a bad matchup for Tulsa, so take Army plus the points in this game on Friday night.

Play ARMY (+).

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Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take NC State (#325)

The video below = Friday Night ESPN College Football Doubleheader: Duke vs Virginia & NC State vs Stanford.  Here’s a brief write-up on betting NC State vs Stanford.

Stanford has been badly outclassed and/or has quit in game four times already this season, losing by margins of 35-7 to Duke, 57-3 to Wake Forest, and 58-7 to Notre Dame and right here in Palo Alto at the Farm, 45-6 to Miami.  When a team gets outclassed like this repeatedly, you can’t trust them to fight for 60 minutes.  Thats bad news against a focused Wolfpack squad coming off a bad loss of their own and a bye week.  Road chalk or pass for this bettor!  Take North Carolina State

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Take Indiana (#337)

The video below?  Michigan - Indiana and LSU - Auburn.  Here’s a brief write-up on betting Michigan - Indiana in early start action on Saturday.

Let’s not overthink this.  In one previous regular season game off a loss as a Hoosier — also to Ohio State, just like this year — Curt Cignetti’s squad won 66-0 the next week.  Now this elite Indiana defense is getting to tee off against a frosh QB making his first career start playing behind an offensive line that hasn’t opened up holes for the running game at any point this season.  Expect the Wolverines to get smacked at the Big House.  Take Indiana.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

(531) Denver Nuggets at (532) Oklahoma City Thunder: Team Total (Game Analysis Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Team Total

Play: Denver Nuggets Total Over 113.5 (-120)

Date/Time: Thurs Oct 22 9:30 pm EST

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Note: Please refer to the 10:54 AND 21:44 marks of the show for full breakdown & analysis

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

This matchup between Azamat Murzakonov and Dominick Reyes has the ingredients of a short explosive fight. Murzakonov is an aggressive power puncher who thrives when he can crash the pocket and unload heavy strikes. He pressures forward early with fast hands and decent boxing fundamentals. While he is not the most technical fighter on the feet he compensates with a willingness to throw with bad intentions. While Reyes carries legitimate power of his own yet prefers to stay patient and look for counter opportunities. He waits for openings rather than initiating long exchanges. Reyes entered a sharp decline not long ago. He dropped four consecutive fights and absorbed several brutal knockouts that made it appear his career was finished. He responded by stringing together three consecutive knockout victories over Dustin Jacoby, Antony Smith and Nikita Krylov. That rebound restored some belief. In his most recent outing against Johnny Walker the performance itself was underwhelming even though he won. Both men spent large stretches of the fight reluctant to engage fully and neither committed to heavier shots for long stretches. The cautious approach reflected two fighters who understood the risk of absorbing clean power to the chin. That pattern reveals something important about Reyes right now. He remains highly conscious of his declining durability. He managed to protect his chin throughout the winning streak but Murzakonov is unlikely to grant him long periods of inactivity. Reyes has leaned into a more measured and at times timid style. That approach will struggle against Murzakonov’s constant forward pressure. The constant threat of heavy shots should force Reyes into closer exchanges inside the pocket. In those moments a single clean connection on the chin can end the night immediately. Reyes will hold the size advantage on fight night, but Murzakonov is accustom to competing with a shorter reach and has developed a style built around closing distance quickly. This willingness to step into fire gives him a practical edge. Murzakonov also carries the clearer durability advantage. That toughness should allow him to absorb return fire while working into his preferred close range. Beyond pure power Murzakonov mixes targets effectively. Of his 16 career victories, 12 have come by knockout. The finishing rate suggests he does not need many clean openings to end the fight. Given the knockout price sitting near a pick’em the numbers favor a decisive result for Murzakonov. His pressure and power should eventually force the kind of exchange Reyes has tried to avoid. Expect Murzakonov to brutally knockout Reyes on Saturday.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

(311) New England Patriots at (312) Chicago Bears: D'Andre Swift Rushing Attempts

D'Andre Swift Rushing Attempts Over 14.5 (-102)

D’Andre Swift Over 14.5 rushing attempts

Swift handled 94 of Chicago's 216 carries this season, and Monangai's absence could increase his workload. New England's strong run defense makes volume a better angle than betting on a huge yardage.

He has gone OVER this number in 5 of the 6 games this year.

Play: OVER 14.5 Rushing Attempts

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Tulsa has gone over the total in each of their last 3 contests and there was a combined average of 68.0 points scored per game. Army has allowed 25.0 points per game in their 2 on the road this season. However, that number is deceiving since they allowed an alarmingly high 481.0 yards per game and 8.8 yards per play in those contests. The point being, they've been very fortunate their points allowed per game in those 2 road games wasn't much higher. Army ranks #2 nationally in rushing offense. Conversely Tulsa is #322 in the country in rush defense. The service academies have been run heavy offenses for many years. Tulsa did lose to Navy 34-26 earlier this season and the Midshipmen ran for a noteworthy 386 yards. Army quarterback Cale Hellums has run for 719 yards and 13 touchdowns so far this season. The Golden Hurricanes defense will be hard pressed to contain Hellums.

Bet on this game to go over the total of 55.0 or lower.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

(311) New England Patriots at (312) Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams Passing Attempts

1.5% Caleb Williams Passing Attempts Over 32.5 (-114)

Caleb Williams Overview

• Recent Performances:

  • In his first two complete games, Williams has shown remarkable accuracy:

    • vs. Carolina: Completed 21 of 29 passes.

    • vs. Atlanta: Completed 30 of 36 passes, showcasing a strong 83.3% completion rate.

• Offensive Strategy:

  • In the season opener against Carolina, the Bears relied heavily on the running game, producing 39 carries for 291 yards (7.5 yards per carry) and scoring 59 points. This dominant performance diminished the need for extensive passing in that game.

New England Patriots Overview

• Defensive Metrics:

  • The Patriots are currently allowing a high completion rate of 66.2%, ranking #25 in the league. Over their last four games, this rate has increased to 68%, indicating a growing vulnerability in their secondary.

  • New England's defense has faced predominantly mid-tier offenses, with only one top-10 offense challenged this season. The average offensive ranking faced by the Patriots is #16, while they encountered the Bears, ranked #5, during a period when Williams was sidelined for over three games.

• Home vs. Away Performance:

  • The Patriots have struggled defensively on the road, allowing an additional 25 yards per game compared to their home games.

  • Their rushing defense has also shown weaknesses, allowing 33 more rushing yards per game on the road, along with 4.4% more passing completions against them.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Take Oklahoma City (#532)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my take on both NBA on ESPN games tonight: Cavs – 76ers and Nuggets – Thunder.  Here’s a brief write-up for OKC – Denver.

The Thunder clearly showed us on opening night how good they are.  Sure, it  helped that Wemby went 1-13, but Wembanyama’s poor shooting didn’t happen by accident.  Nobody’s got a trio of seven footers like that Thunder trio of Hartenstein, Holmgren and rookie Aday Mara from Michigan; bad news for Nikola Jokic tonight.  I’ve got early season questions about the re-made Nuggets bench, especially with Julian Strowther out and Spencer Jones questionable at best.  Bottom line: I’m not stepping in front of OKC right now!  Take the Thunder

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Got as low as -7 but not at enough outs to fire, still some value left!

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Under.

The Hoosiers are coming off a 19-15 loss at home to Ohio State, and their last road game was a 20-17 win over Nebraska. Josh Hoover left the last game with a shoulder injury, and it is unclear if that's something that we need to be concerned about this week. Playing at Michigan isn't going to be any easier than at Nebraska. The last time these teams faced each other it was a 20-15 win for Indiana in 2024. We should see a similar score here in this one, and if either team scores 20 it should be all they need.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

PLAY: Syracuse +8.5

We've been on the Orange two weeks in a row. Syracuse covered as 14.5-point underdogs for us against Louisville last week while outgaining the Cardinals 462-425. Quarterback Malachi Nelson continues to hit explosive vertical plays, throwing touchdown passes of 41 and 24 yards and demonstrating high efficiency against press coverage. They also got it done against the spread at Virginia two weeks prior. Orange are 0-4 in ACC play, which kept them off my parlay card. (And probably means they will actually win this game outright).

North Carolina (4-2 SU) remains consistently overvalued by oddsmakers, failing to beat a single FBS opponent by more than five points this season. Given UNC's inability to create separation or cover larger spreads, taking the inflated line value with Syracuse in another one-possession game with the 'Canes on deck for the Tar Heels.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

(321) Army at (322) Tulsa: Spread

Army +1.5 (-108)

Army Black Knights Overview

• Offensive Performance:

  • Yards Per Game: Army has averaged 399 yards rushing (6.1) per game over their last four contests, demonstrating a consistently effective offensive strategy.

  • Rushing Efficiency: The Black Knights have been particularly dominant on the ground, averaging 6.5 yards per carry on the season, indicating a powerful rushing attack that can control the tempo of the game.

• Recent Trends: Army has shown strong defensive performances alongside their offensive output, making them a formidable opponent.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane Overview

• Defensive Metrics:

  • Yards Allowed: Tulsa has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 458 yards per game over the last four outings including 301 yards per game rushing over their last three outings. This exposes vulnerability against high-powered offenses like Army's.

  • Rushing Defense: They have allowed 5.4 yards per carry, indicating that teams have found success running the ball against them, which could play into Army’s strengths.

System Trends

• Revenge Factor: Army fits into a betting system where teams as slight underdogs (+6 or less) that are seeking revenge for a previous loss as favorites (in which they led by 7+ points at halftime) boast an ATS record of 28-8 (78%). This trend underscores the motivation and potential for these teams to perform well in revenge scenarios, as they often come out with increased intensity and focus.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on BEARS.

The Pats are coming off back to back solid wins, but they lost three offensive linemen in the win over the Jets on Sunday. With their left and right guards doubtful, and a right tackle questionable, it could be tough sledding for Drake Maye. The Pats QB has struggled on the road, with just 1TD and 3 INTs so far. He's averaged 9.3 yards per attempt at home, and just 5.4 yards per attempt on the road. The Bears finally got their QB back in Atlanta last week, and Caleb was cooking to the tune of 300+ yards on 30-of-36 passing with a TD. Go Bears!

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: Cincinnati +2.5

I gave this out on "bet on it" +3 as an assumption that Lamar Jackson was not going to play. Just a few short hours later, it appears, based on the line move, he will most likely be out. Obviously, keep an eye on the injury news throughout the rest of the weekend.

Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced since spraining his ankle back on Oct. 4 and remains day-to-day. Without him, Baltimore's offense completely stalled out, managing just 235 yards and 10 points (all scored in the 1st quarter) with Tyler Huntley at the helm in Cleveland. Derrick Henry was held to a modest 58 yards on 17 carries last week.

Cincinnati comes out of its bye with Joe Burrow firing on all cylinders (11 TDs, 3 INTs). Burrow threw four touchdown passes at Miami, including one to Ja'Marr Chase in his return from a concussion.

The Bengals have been reliable on the road at 2-1 straight up. Wins at Houston (20-6) and Miami (31-24), while their only road defeat came by three in Pittsburgh, a game in which we were against them. Neither of Cincy's losses this year came by more than five points.

Baltimore is beatable at home 1-1, dropping a 24-17 game to New Orleans.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Tulsa began the season with a 24-10 win over Oklahoma State (as 13.5 pt underdogs) that probably looks better now than it did then (OK State has subsequently beaten Oregon and was ranked as high as #18 in the country going into last week). But the Golden Hurricane have since sputtered, going just 3-3 SU overall. This past weekend, they did record their biggest margin of victory over an FBS opponent this season, by beating Rice 38-17 as 3.5-pt road favorites.

With Tulsa hosting Army this week, the keys for me are homefield advantage and having seen the triple option each of the last two games. Remember that Rice runs the triple option. So does Navy, whom Tulsa faced two weeks ago. Both of those games were on the road. This week, it's back home where Tre Lamb's team is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season. Tulsa's only "bad" loss this year came with a backup QB at Arkansas.

Starting QB Baylor Hayes is now back for the Golden Hurricane, who have put up an average of 36 points the last three games. As a 9.5-point road underdog, Tulsa beat Army last year 26-25 with a 497-311 total yardage edge. My power ratings usually like Army, but this year's iteration has played four games decided by 4 pts or less, and wasn't nearly as dominant against FAU as the 56-24 final score indicates. Total yardage was close to even, but Army was +3 in turnovers.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

The case for the Under begins with Army’s ability to dictate pace. The Black Knights operate at an adjusted 31.48 seconds per play, the slowest tempo in the country, while running on 84.1% of their offensive snaps. That combination is built to shorten games, sustain possessions, and reduce overall play volume. Army’s rushing production is elite, but its style is more methodical than its 56-24 win over Florida Atlantic might suggest. The Black Knights rushed 60 times for 479 yards in that game while attempting only two passes. Cale Hellums accounted for 195 rushing yards and five touchdowns. That level of efficiency is difficult to replicate, particularly for an offense that normally relies on long, clock-consuming possessions rather than passing volume.

Tulsa is vulnerable against the run, but the Golden Hurricane are allowing 22.4 points per game and enter with only three Overs in seven contests. Their games have averaged 52.5 combined points, while Army’s last three have averaged 50.5. Both figures sit below the current market total. The biggest concern is Tulsa’s faster offensive pace, but Army can neutralize some of that advantage simply by controlling possession. Every extended Black Knights drive keeps Tulsa’s offense on the sideline, reduces the number of possessions available to both teams, and increases the pressure on the Golden Hurricane to maximize a smaller number of opportunities.

My technical database provides additional support. Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points are 294-222 to the Under (57.0%; +8.8% ROI). A broader system involving road teams arriving off 50-plus-point performances has gone 545-437 to the Under (55.5%), producing +64.3 units. Additional rushing-based systems also support regression following exceptionally productive games on the ground. Army plays at an exceptionally slow pace, runs almost exclusively, and is coming off an unusually efficient 56-point performance that the market may be overvaluing. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, October 23.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The hold-your-nose special of the week. Since the 2021-22 season, Miami has gone 8-2 straight-up, 6-3-1 against the spread in this AFC East matchup. Miami won-and-covered both meetings last season. Five of the last six contests between the Jets and Dolphins have gone over the total. Miami is coming off its bye week after starting the year 0-5 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread. The Dolphins' lone point spread cover this season came at Minnesota as a 9.5-point 'dog where the Vikings took a voluntary knee at the goal line in the closing minute to keep Miami within the lofty spread. The Jets return home after a disappointing effort at New England last week. New York has opened as a 4.5-point home favorite in this contest, and if that point spread holds true through out the week, it will be the most points the Jets have been asked to lay since mid-November 2024. New York went 0-2 straight-up and against the spread as a favorite last season, but did beat Cleveland as a small home favorite two weeks ago. Through Week 6, division underdogs have gone 15-12-1 straight-up, 20-8 against the spread this season. Per betting analyst Evan Abrams, that's the second-best start for division underdogs at the betting window in the Super Bowl era. Miami is returning from its bye week and should be a little healthier. Wide receiver Caleb Douglas is scheduled to return to practice this week after missing the last three games. The Jets are hoping to get some pieces back this week, specifically on offense. Running back Breece Hall, wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, offensive lineman Dylan Parham and edge rusher Joseph Ossai all missed last week's loss to the Patriots. At the end of the day, it's very, very difficult to find anything nice to say about Miami right now other than "They are coming off a bye." But we simply can't trust a team led by Aaron Glenn and Geno Smith to win by 6+ points. Glenn stumbled his way through an interview during last week's game, suggesting that he didn't know which team would be getting the ball after halftime. Over the last five games, Smith has been sacked 19 times. For all of Miami's struggles (and there are plenty), you can now look back at the Dolphins' schedule with a bit more context. This week's game against New York represents a significant drop in class compared to San Francisco, Kansas City, Minnesota and Cincinnati, which Miami played before the bye. Realistically, the Dolphins probably only have 3-4 chances to win a game this season, and this might be the best one. We're expecting to see a solid effort out of Miami on Sunday. Play Miami Dolphins

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The RedWolves and Panthers have only met one time over the past five seasons - Arkansas State's 27-20 road win in November 2024. For what it's worth, the Panthers out-gained the RedWolves by 53 yards in that contest. Georgia State's six-game winning streak at the betting window came to a close last week as the Panthers were crushed by James Madison. JMU led 35-10 at halftime as the Dukes' defense held Georgia State QB Cameran Brown to 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Arkansas State found the win column with a 23-13 road win at Southern Miss last week. Four of the RedWolves' last five games have stayed under the total. Georgia State entered this season with a win total projection of 3.5, which the Panthers cleared by Week 5. We don't want to take anything away from what Georgia State has accomplished this season, but the fact remains they lost by 14 and 27 in their two toughest games thus far. Per Sagarin, Georgia State's strength of schedule ranks No. 122. Arkansas State has played the tougher schedule and has largely played up to expectation thus far. We believe the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Play Arkansas State

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Perhaps the Philadelphia Eagles doctors (who allowed Jalen Hurts back on the field at London on October 11 despite discovering a blood clot in his leg..sheesh!) would have cleared Oregon QB Dante Moore to play last Saturday vs. Nebraska. Yet having not yet gotten beyond concussion protocols in the wake of the scary hit (cheap shot?) delivered by USC LB Desman Stephens II back on September 26 at the LA Coliseum, Moore’s status remains on a week-to-week basis...stay tuned for further developments. Before checking to see if Dan Fouts had any remaining eligibility in Eugene, and before it was too late last week vs. the Huskers, Ducks head coach Dan Lanning wisely pulled struggling former third-stringer Brock Thomas and went back to Dylan Raiola, who atoned for a poor showing the week before vs. UCLA by leading the winning rally vs. his former Nebraska team. Still, the Webfoots have been struggling in shallow water the past two weeks, scoring only 16 points per game while splitting a pair of low-scoring decisions at home. We remind you that even if Moore can return this week, Oregon lost in his previous road start at Oklahoma State in September. Of course, Illinois counterpart Bret Bielema can relate to Lanning as his QB Katin Houser (via East Carolina) is now sidelined into November with a hand injury, requiring frosh Michael Clayton II out of the bullpen to pull out an OT win over Michigan State on October 10. Though last week’s bye at least gave Clayton (who showed no fear when completing 6-of-8 for 88 yards and 2 TDs when coming in late vs. the Spartans) a chance to get better acclimated, and he can lean a bit on a serviceable infantry that pounded out nearly 200 yards on the ground at Ohio State a few weeks ago and features an Air Force-style, between-the-tackles banger in senior Aidan Laughery, gaining better than 6.3 yards per carry. Bottom line? The Ducks have only covered two of their last eight vs. FBS opposition, and even if Moore returns, we're struggling to see how Oregon will rediscover its knockout power. With QB questions on both sides, we're expecting another low-scoring affair. Play the Under

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

I absolutely love what North Texas has been doing offensively, and I think we're getting a very manageable team total against a Navy defense that has really struggled lately. The Mean Green offense has been humming since Week 2, and I don't see the Midshipmen having much success slowing them down.

Just look at the offensive production North Texas has put together. They've scored 44 points against UNLV, 35 against Texas State, 63 against Houston Christian, 45 against Tulsa and 50 against Charlotte. That's five games with at least 35 points, and we're only being asked to get to 32 on Saturday afternoon.

What's impressive about this offense is how balanced and explosive it has become. North Texas quarterbacks have combined for over 2,000 passing yards and 17 touchdown passes, while the rushing attack is averaging 5.1 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. That's a dangerous combination because defenses can't simply focus on stopping one aspect of the offense. North Texas can beat you through the air or on the ground.

Now let's look at Navy's defense, because I don't like what I've seen from the Midshipmen recently. They've allowed 34 points to UTSA and 26 to Tulsa over their last two games. Last week alone, Navy surrendered 350 passing yards and three passing touchdowns. That's a major concern when you're preparing to face a North Texas offense that has been consistently putting up big numbers.

The weather also looks like it should cooperate, which is another positive for this play. With favorable conditions expected in Annapolis, North Texas should be able to operate its offense without having to worry about the elements disrupting the passing game.

We're getting an offense that has scored at least 35 points in five of its recent games, facing a Navy defense that has been vulnerable through the air and struggling to keep opponents off the scoreboard. North Texas has too many offensive weapons, and I expect another big afternoon from the Mean Green.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The market is pricing Saturday’s Utah State-Texas State matchup for significant scoring, largely because of the Bobcats’ explosive offensive profile. That creates value on the Under because the matchup places an unusually heavy burden on Texas State to generate most of the points. Utah State is averaging only 14.5 points per game, while the Aggies’ relative defensive strength against the run matches up directly with the foundation of the Bobcats’ offense. Utah State ranks 134th nationally in overall success rate at 34.5%, including 133rd in passing success rate and 135th in rushing success rate. The Aggies average only 3.8 yards per rush and have scored just two rushing touchdowns. Their passing game has not provided much relief, completing 52.5% of its attempts while allowing 19 sacks and throwing 10 interceptions. The lack of efficiency has shown up on the scoreboard, as Utah State is averaging only 14.5 points per game and produced just 236 total yards in last week’s 17-16 win over Washington State. The Aggies averaged only 2.9 yards per rush in that victory. Utah State ranks 136th nationally at just 2.06 points per scoring opportunity according to the supplied data. In other words, even when the Aggies successfully move into scoring position, those drives have frequently failed to produce touchdowns.

The obvious threat to the Under is Texas State. The Bobcats are averaging 40.0 points and 562.3 yards per game, including 303.5 rushing yards per contest. They also arrive off a 66-27 victory over Colorado State. But the matchup favors the Under more than those surface numbers suggest. Texas State runs the football on 61.7% of its offensive plays and averages 6.1 yards per carry. Utah State’s defense is better equipped to defend the run, limiting opponents to a 39.0% rushing success rate and ranking 41st nationally in rushing PPA allowed at -0.02. The Aggies can limit early-down rushing success, forcing Texas State to generate more production through the passing game rather than consistently dictating the game with its preferred run-heavy approach. Tempo also threatens the Under, as Texas State operates at 22.38 adjusted seconds per play. creating additional possessions and more opportunities for points. However, the Bobcats slow to about 27.0 seconds per play when leading and are substantial favorites in this game, creating a favorable Under scenario: Texas State builds a lead, transitions toward its already run-heavy offensive identity, and slows the pace while Utah State struggles to score from the other end.

Inefficiency and turnovers create drive-killing potential

Utah State’s offensive profile also contains several characteristics that can end possessions without points. The Aggies have turned the ball over 13 times through six games, while recording only 98 first downs. Combined with their problems protecting the quarterback and producing efficient rushing plays, that creates multiple avenues for drives to stall before reaching scoring territory. The Texas State defense is far from dominant, but its 24.3% defensive stuff rate ranks 12th nationally.

My technical database supports a lower-scoring result.

• Teams coming off qualifying 300-plus-yard rushing performances have produced a 730-551 Under record (57.0%), generating +123.9 units and an 8.8% ROI;

• Home favorites averaging more than 35 points per game following a 50-plus-point performance have gone 324-251 to the Under (56.3%), generating +47.9 units and a 7.6% ROI;

Additional database systems include a 232-164 Under record (58.6%, +51.6 units) involving poor defensive teams following a 50-plus-point offensive performance, along with a 342-269 Under record (56.0%, +46.1 units) involving certain road underdogs coming off games in which they surrendered at least 49 points.

Texas State possesses an explosive offense, but the Bobcats’ run-heavy identity runs into one of the stronger areas of the Utah State defense. On the other side, Utah State ranks near the bottom of the country in both passing and rushing success rates, and averages just 14.5 points per game. If Texas State establishes the expected lead, its already run-heavy offense should become more deliberate, shortening the game and reducing second-half possession volume. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 24.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a FREE play on K9 ATTD.

The Kenneth Walker revenge game? The reigning Super Bowl MVP returns to Seattle, and he leads the NFL in rushing. He's averaging a career high 6.3 yards per carry. I don't love betting TD scorers in games with low totals, but given the affordable price and the motivational angle, I think there is some value with a guy who accounts for the majority of his teams offense.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

In this "Owl fight," I expect Florida Atlantic to have the edge. FAU had no answer for Army's run game last week. However, that shouldn't be an issue this week. Since a season-opening win against FCS Houston Christian, Rice has lost six straight. Those losses came by an average of 18.8 points. While last week wasn't its best effort, FAU which is 3-0 at home, has an extremely potent offense. The Owls average 422 yards and 35 points. They should exceed those numbers this week and Rice is unlikely to be able to keep up. *good to -11

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago