Free Sports Predictions MAR 26: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Iowa State has been printing money going a perfect (6-0) Against the Spread their last 6 games overall. Even without Joshua Jefferson in the lineup this team has looked sharp. The reports are he is a game time decision. If he does play this number likely rises.

Rick Barnes enters his 4th straight Sweet 16 a very impressive feat. although, this time around the Volunteers are not playing their best basketball. A favorable road to get to this point, after dropping 4 of their last 6 games heading into the tournament. Big step up in class for the Vols. For the Sweet 16 Tournament free pick- Bet Iowa State at the short number.

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This is a rematch from their first fight back in 2021. A very competitive scrappy back and forth bout in which strikes landed were identical. Barber secured 3 of 5 takedowns but Grasso edged out the decision victory. A lot has changed since, Grasso became UFC champion but losing the belt in a trilogy with Valentina Shevchenko. While Barber went on a 7 fight win streak which forced this rematch. Stylistically, I really like the improvements she'd made with a style that's extremely judge friendly by bullying opponents. In WMMA sometimes all you need is a mix of being overly aggressive, marching forward and throw volume. Optically it's great for the judges as they control the center of the cage dictating pace. Maycee's done an excellent job pushing forward staying in opponents faces and winning positionally. A massive advantage for Barber is her strength and physicality, leveraging it in the clinch or on takedown attempts dragging opponents to the mat. Over her last 4 fights securing 8 takedowns on just 11 attempts and believe she'll seek path of least resistance. On the other hand, Grasso's weakness is her physicality. Good boxer with fast hands but lacks power & strength which Maycee will capitalize on. This leads into her vulnerable takedown defense which Shevchenko completely exposed. Over there trilogy Valentina landed 16 takedowns on just 25 attempts. That's 72% Shevchenko secured takedowns as well as having 30 minutes of control time over 3 fights. Insanely, high! Now I'm not saying Maycee Barber is as good as Shevchenko... but what I am saying is the path to victory is widely available on Saturday night. Fully expect her banking rounds in top control. Now out of Barber's last 7 wins, 6 of those were by decision. Out of Grasso's 5 career losses, 4 of which are by decision. Give me Barber to dominate control time winning on the scorecards!

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

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I modeled this as a Toronto edge, modest total, with Toronto’s stronger 2025 home offense, Gausman’s stronger home/night baseline, and Rogers Centre’s near-neutral run environment outweighing Severino’s very good 2025 road work. This is Toronto’s home opener at Rogers Centre with Luis Severino vs. Kevin Gausman confirmed, and Rogers Centre’s 2025 park factors were essentially neutral for runs.

• A’s offense baseline: 4.52 runs/game in 2025 overall, about 4.5 away (365 runs in 81 road games), with a .742 OPS away vs RHP.

• Blue Jays offense baseline: 4.93 runs/game in 2025 overall, 5.32 at home (431 runs in 81 home games), .763 OPS vs RHP overall, and .788 OPS at home.

• Severino baseline: 2025 overall 4.54 ERA, but a much better 3.02 ERA on the road; his recent road form was also sharp, with a 2.89 ERA over his last five road starts. His only 2025 start vs Toronto was scoreless by ERA but still allowed 5 runs total in 4.2 IP, which matters for run projection more than earned-run accounting alone. I expect regression from the World Baseball Classic drama.

• Gausman baseline: 2025 overall 3.59 ERA, 3.86 ERA at home, 3.09 ERA at night, and he held the A’s to a 2.89 ERA with 19 K in 18.2 IP across three starts since 2024..

• Bullpen context: Toronto’s 2025 bullpen was materially better than Oakland’s by ERA, and because this is Opening Day, I did not apply an overuse penalty to either side. MLB’s preview also describes Toronto’s late-inning foundation as strong, while Oakland is using more of a committee.

Projected score

Projected starting pitcher box

Full game hitter projection

Athletics

Blue Jays

Wager & probability analysis

Final call

Most likely baseball score: Blue Jays 5, Athletics 3

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Rick Pitino has led St. John’s to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1999. Since January 3, the Johnnies have suffered just one defeat, but their offense is relatively lackluster, sitting in the 180s for effective field goal percentage and in the 170s for two-point percentage. Additionally, Pitino’s team ranks 192nd in three-point shooting, making only 33.3% of their shots from beyond the arc. Since 2016, NCAA tournament games from Round 3 forward are 74-48-1 to the Under (60.7%), while Sweet 16 games are 49-34 to the Under (59%) since 2014, including 30-20 UNDER (60%) since 2018. St. John’s advanced to the Sweet 16 by defeating the Jayhawks 67-65 in a game that went under the total. Since 2019, college basketball teams coming off a straight-up win and under are 128-88-1 to the Under (59.3%) versus opponents ranked #1 or #2 in their previous game. Let’s also note that No. 1 seeds are 60-40-1 to the Under (60%) from Round 3 forward in the NCAA Tournament, including 33-9 UNDER (78.6%) since 2019, going under by an average margin of 6.6 points per game. Similarly, since 2013, college basketball teams that played a game in which their largest lead was at least 14 points and the final score was below the total have gone under in 254 of 449 games (56.8%) from Game 34 forward. This trend has grown stronger since the 2020-21 season, with teams going under in 146 out of 245 games (59.6%). Finally, this situation is 70-47 to the Under (59.8%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2019. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 27.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

ARG PRI DIV :

Total Under 1.5 (104)...(3%) - thru Under 1.5 (-120)

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Total Under 2.0 (106)...(3%) - thru Under 2 (-110)

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 We’re all familiar with Tom Izzo, and we all know that there’s really no one better at getting their team prepared for March. Sparty won 6 of their last 7 games to close out the regular season and have handled both North Dakota State and Louisville rather easily. MSU’s metrics are very strong – they’re balanced on both sides of the ball, coming in at 13^th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 22^nd on offense. MSU also controls the glass. Michigan State has the #1 defensive rebounding percentage in the nation and they’re top 10 on offense. UConn is going to bring a fight, but the fact is, MSU has the better athletes. The Spartans are a live dog here and we’ll put them in our pocket. Take Michigan State.

85.7% (6-1) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

71.4% (10-4) CBB RUN!

5% CBB TOP PLAY UP FOR THURSDAY!

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago