Free Sports Predictions OCT 16: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

On the side in tonight's American League Championship matchup. The total is sitting a bit low, not going to make the client card, but a lean to the over.

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The Washington Huskies were the most overrated team in the AP college football preseason poll and they've nothing but underachieve since the season began. Washington started the season 3-0 against Washington State (1-5), Utah State (2-4), and Eastern Washington who plays at the FCS level. Since then, they've gone 0-3. That includes a 27-24 home loss to Minnesota who Purdue beat by 28 points just last Saturday.

Purdue is coming off 2 wins in a row which includes at Illinois 24-17 as a +10.0-point under and last week at home over Minnesota 41-13 as a +2.5-point underdog. Although the Boilermakers are just 3-3, their 3 losses were all against nationally ranked teams in #21 Wake Forest (5-1), #12 UCLA (5-0), and #2 Notre Dame (6-0). So, they've definitely played a much tougher schedule than Washington has to this point.

Bet the Purdue Boilermakers as a point-spread favorite of -4.0 or lower.

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Five straight. That's how many times in a row the Ducks have beaten Boston, including a 7-5 win in Boston and a 4-3 win in this building last season. Anaheim owns this matchup, and tonight they're basically a pick'em at home. I'm taking the Ducks on the moneyline.

The bottom line here is the Ducks have the better power play, the Bruins can't stay out of the box, and I'm selling Boston at the highest point of their season.

Start with special teams, because that's where this game gets decided. Anaheim's power play is 7-for-21 this season, a 33% clip that's among the best in hockey. Boston's penalty kill sits at 76%, and they've already given up six power-play goals. They've taken 96 penalty minutes in seven games and handed their opponents 18 power plays. Give this Ducks unit four or five chances tonight and they will make you pay.

Now the Bruins. Yes, they've won three straight and scored 17 goals doing it. Look at who they beat: Utah, Philly and San Jose. That's a nice little run, and the market has noticed. Boston is now the favourite on the road in a building where it hasn't won against this team in years. They're on the third stop of a four-game road trip, with a game in L.A. tomorrow night. Late on a road trip, with another game the next night, is exactly when teams get caught.

The Ducks are coming off a 4-2 loss to a Calgary team that hadn't won a game, and they blew a 2-1 lead to do it. Teams with this much skill don't lose to bad teams twice in a row, especially at home. Leo Carlsson has 9 points in six games, and Granlund has a point in every game this year. Expect a response.

The line agrees. Anaheim opened at even money and is now -103 to -105. That's a small move, but it's toward the Ducks.

I see a 4-3 Ducks game, with the power play making the difference.

The Play: Ducks ML -103

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The underlying numbers don't support Texas Tech laying more than two touchdowns. Arizona State owns a +1.1 yards-per-play margin against the #61 schedule, while Texas Tech is at +1.0 against the #64 schedule. Despite virtually identical schedule strength and efficiency margins, we're getting 15.5 points with the Sun Devils.

Texas Tech's recent margins have also been inflated by defensive scores. The Red Raiders have benefited from three pick-sixes over their last two games, including a Colorado game in which Tech won 29-7 despite being outgained. Quarterback Will Hammond has thrown just five touchdowns against five interceptions, and the running game hasn't been nearly as dominant as it was last season.

Arizona State has enough passing-game firepower to stay competitive behind Cutter Boley and Reed Harris, who has 34 catches for 590 yards through five games. The Sun Devils are also 4-1 ATS as conference underdogs of 14 points or more. Texas Tech has legitimate revenge after Arizona State handed the Red Raiders their only regular-season loss last year, but the underlying numbers make 15.5 points too much to pass up.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE: Under Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State is 8-0 ATS in road or neutral-site games after two straight games where they forced no more than 1 turnover. The Sun Devils covered the spread by an average of 13.3 points!

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Rutgers is a 5.5-point road underdog against Maryland, but the Scarlet Knights have several meaningful matchup advantages, especially with an explosive passing attack poised to stress a vulnerable Terrapins defense. Rutgers ranks 18th nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.34), well ahead of Maryland at 61st (1.25), while the Scarlet Knights’ passing attack ranks second nationally in explosiveness (1.93) and generates an impressive 8.9 yards per attempt. That big-play ability creates a favorable matchup against a Maryland secondary allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt while ranking 102nd in passing success rate allowed (43.6%) and 128th in passing touchdowns surrendered (13). The concerns extend beyond Maryland’s secondary. The Terrapins rank 136th nationally in points allowed per scoring opportunity (4.79), 86th in defensive success rate (41.8%), and 118th in average starting field position allowed. Rutgers should also attack those weaknesses before Maryland can dictate obvious passing situations. The Scarlet Knights throw on 51.4% of first downs, the 24th-highest rate nationally, giving them opportunities to generate explosive plays when the defense must still account for both the run and pass.

Maryland’s offensive inefficiency strengthens the case for taking the points. The Terrapins rank 106th nationally in offensive success rate (39.8%), 115th in points per scoring opportunity (3.05), and 127th in passing PPA (-0.01). Despite throwing on 56% of their offensive snaps, they average only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, ranking 122nd nationally, with a 40.0% passing success rate, 98th. Rutgers has been vulnerable defensively, but its ability to create takeaways could be an equalizer against a Maryland passing attack that has already thrown six interceptions. More importantly, the Scarlet Knights hold a substantial advantage in finishing drives, averaging 4.07 points per scoring opportunity compared with just 3.05 for Maryland. That gap becomes particularly important in a game where Rutgers is catching more than a field goal. The Scarlet Knights’ 1-4 record may also undersell their underlying performance. Rutgers has generated 2.7 expected wins, suggesting its results have lagged its overall level of play. Maryland enters at 2-4, but its offensive efficiency metrics provide considerably less reason to expect significant improvement.

My technical database further supports Rutgers in this spot. Conference road underdogs with a rest advantage coming off an ATS loss are 274-200 ATS (57.8%) since 1989, producing +54.0 units. A related system involving opponents with superior winning percentages is 311-232 ATS (57.3%), while another subset of conference road underdogs coming off an ATS loss has produced a 233-139 ATS record (62.6%) and +80.1 units since 1989. Road underdogs of fewer than seven points with three wins or fewer have also gone 869-716 ATS (55.0%), generating +81.4 units since 2007. Ultimately, the matchup makes Rutgers attractive at +5.5. The Scarlet Knights have the more explosive passing attack, a clear advantage in finishing scoring opportunities, and face a Maryland offense that has struggled to sustain drives or generate efficient production through the air. Combine those matchup advantages with the favorable historical profile for road conference underdogs, and Rutgers +5.5 offers value with enough offensive upside to stay inside the number and potentially win outright.

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The Avalanche are averaging a whopping 4.43 goals per game, tied with Edmonton for the most in the NHL. The Penguins are averaging a healthy 3.43 goals per game, tied for 10th with Washington. The Avs and Pens have faced each other four times since the beginning of 2024. Four of those five games produced eight or more goals. I expect them to combine for at least seven again this evening. Go with the over.

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915 Tampa Bay at Cleveland

There are weather concerns in Cleveland for this game. Surprised by the low total considering the starting pitching, especially for the host, isn't as strong as the previous three games. Martinez has been terrific against the Guardians this year, but adjustments will be made. Cleveland will use the back end of the starting rotation in this one, with lower end relievers also getting some time. If for any reason the game is delayed early, it will hurt the Rays more because they need a solid five innings from Martinez. The wind is blowing in, so home runs may be limited. That said, the total has been adjusted too much in our opinion.

PLAY OVER

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KIA Tigers vs LG Twins Under 8.5:

• Naile is the biggest Under driver. He has been the more reliable starter overall and gives KIA a good chance to hold LG to 2–3 runs rather than allowing a big inning early.

• KIA’s bullpen supports the Under. This is important because the handicap does not depend only on the starters. If Naile gets through 5–6 innings in good shape, KIA has the relief pitching to protect a low-scoring game.

• LG’s offense is the weaker side of the matchup. Compared with KIA, LG has less overall power and less recent offensive explosiveness, making it easier to build an Under case around LG staying below 4 runs.

• Tolhurst has improved recently. His season numbers against KIA are concerning, but his most recent starts have been better. The Under does not require him to dominate; something like 5 innings and 2–3 runs allowed is enough.

• Postseason Game 1 should favor tighter pitching decisions. Managers are generally quicker to use their better relievers, and there is less reason to leave a struggling pitcher in long enough for a 5- or 6-run inning to develop.

• Both teams have meaningful bullpen options. That reduces the chance of the game turning into a late-inning bullpen collapse after a relatively low-scoring first five.

• The projected scoring distribution fits 8.5 well. Scores such as 4-2, 4-3, 5-2 and 5-3 all cash the Under. My center projection is still around KIA 4–5, LG 3–4.

• 8.5 is much better than 8. That extra half-run is significant. A final like 5-3 or 4-4 through nine before extras stays Under 8.5, whereas Under 8 would only push at exactly eight.

• LG team total Under 4.5 and full-game Under 8.5 point in the same direction. The strongest part of the Under thesis is that LG is unlikely to contribute enough offense to force the game into double digits.

• At +100, the price is attractive. You only need a 50% win rate to break even, while I would put the Under 8.5 roughly in the 56–58% range.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

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Virtus Bologna Moneyline (-210) vs Baskonia

Strong win candidate

The biggest advantages coming from rebounding, recent form, home court and Baskonia's defensive struggles..

1. Virtus has won three consecutive EuroLeague games, beating Olympiacos 96–94, Bayern Munich 94–87 and Paris 96–94. Baskonia is 1–4 and coming off a 93–79 home loss to Dubai.

2. Major defensive advantage: Baskonia allows 95.6 PPG, the worst mark among the 20 EuroLeague teams. Virtus allows 88.0 PPG, a 7.6-point advantage in defensive production.

3. Strong rebounding advantage: Virtus averages 39.8 rebounds versus Baskonia's 34.2, a +5.6 edge. That creates opportunities for extra possessions while limiting Baskonia's second chances.

4. Better interior defense: Virtus averages 4.0 blocks versus Baskonia's 2.2. That gives Virtus additional rim protection against a team that relies on attacking the basket.

5. Baskonia is allowing extremely efficient shooting: Opponents are shooting 49.2% overall and 39.8% from three. Virtus should find opportunities to score without needing an exceptional shooting night.

6. Virtus has a healthier available roster: Local reporting lists no unavailable Virtus players, although the final 12-man rotation is not yet confirmed. Derrick Alston Jr. also comes into this game after scoring 23 against Paris.

7. Baskonia has lost Markus Howard: The club officially confirmed his departure on October 14. While Howard had a limited role in the first five games, his departure reduces another potential perimeter scoring option.

8. Home-court and organizational stability favor Virtus: Virtus returns to Bologna after consecutive away wins, while Baskonia is playing its first EuroLeague game under new coach Velimir Perasovic. Virtus coach Alex Mumbrú has specifically emphasized defense against Baskonia's fast-paced attack.

Verdict: Virtus ML -210 is a reasonable favorite to back, with a small estimated value advantage. I prefer it to Virtus -4.5 for maximizing the probability of winning the bet.

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Whatever has gotten into the Bruins the past week, it's working. Some sort of goal drink, perhaps, because Boston is scoring by the bushel in recent games, banging in 17 goals across its past three games, all wins, and it's working so well that Charlie McAvoy even scored in his season debut on Monday at San Jose after sitting out due to suspension for the first six games. The new man to watch is center Fraser Minten, with three goals across the past two games.

If the Bruins want to skate, however, the Ducks will be glad to oblige and can skate with them, with Bennett Sennecke emerging as a top scorer on the wing, while Leo Carlsson was back in the goal column on Tuesday vs. the Flames. There have been at least six goals in all but one Anaheim's six games to date as well. Play Bruins-Ducks "Over"

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(119) Washington at (120) Purdue: Total

Total Over 49.5 (-112)

The strongest case is Purdue's defensive problems combined with its improving offense. One sportsbook preview lists Purdue at 5–1 to the Over, including 4–0 at home, while the Boilermakers have allowed at least 38 points in three of their five Power Four matchups.

Play: OVER 49.5 UP TO 51

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This is a Free play on Under.

Bama is certainly capable of scoring a ton of points, but this doesn't appear to be the type of game where that is going to happen. Tennessee might be terrible offensively, and they are starting their backup QB, but Knoxville is still a tough place to play. This defense under Jim Knowles is legit, as evidenced by the 20-17 loss to Texas. Bama will not have their WR1, and they do play at one of the slowest tempos in the country. Calling for Bama winning 28-17 in Knoxville.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Washington presents compelling value as a 3.5-point road underdog against Purdue, with the Huskies holding meaningful advantages in talent, defensive efficiency, and underlying performance. Despite identical 3-3 records, Washington ranks 23rd nationally in overall talent compared with Purdue at 62nd, and it also has sizable edges in roster depth (17th vs. 58th), offensive line talent (20th vs. 60th), and running back talent (18th vs. 63rd). More importantly, the records appear misleading: Washington has generated 4.2 expected wins compared with just 2.1 for Purdue, suggesting a considerable gap between how these teams have performed and their identical records.

That disparity becomes particularly important when evaluating Washington's passing attack against a vulnerable Purdue secondary. The Huskies throw at the third-highest rate nationally (58.9%) and rank 11th with 1,677 passing yards, completing 67.4% of their attempts with 13 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Purdue is poorly equipped to defend that strength, ranking 109th in passing success rate allowed (44.4%), 119th in passing PPA allowed (+0.34), and 131st in passing explosiveness allowed (1.80). The Boilermakers are also surrendering 8.4 yards per pass attempt and 11 passing touchdowns, creating an excellent matchup for Washington's aggressive aerial attack.

Washington should also have a substantial advantage when Purdue has the ball. The Boilermakers average just 2.9 yards per rushing attempt, ranking 138th nationally, and now face a Huskies defense allowing only 3.1 yards per carry. Washington ranks eighth nationally in both rushing explosiveness allowed (0.80) and defensive stuff rate (26.1%), giving the Huskies a chance to shut down Purdue's ground game and force the Boilermakers into predictable passing situations. Purdue's broader defensive profile provides little reason to believe it can consistently compensate. The Boilermakers rank 120th in defensive success rate allowed (45.7%), 127th in explosiveness allowed (1.40), and 125th in points allowed per scoring opportunity (4.25). They have also forced only three turnovers, ranking 124th nationally, limiting their ability to offset those defensive inefficiencies with short fields or momentum-changing plays.

The technical profile further supports Washington. Purdue is just 54-87 ATS at home (38.3%) since 2005. Conference road underdogs coming off an ATS loss with a rest advantage are 233-139 ATS (62.6%) since 1989, producing +80.1 units, while a related rest-advantage system is 269-211 ATS (56.0%) since 1998. Additionally, a system fading small home favorites following outright upset victories as underdogs has produced a 139-98 ATS record (58.6%) since 1997. The matchup, underlying metrics, and technical indicators all point in the same direction. Washington is the more talented team, has a major matchup advantage through the air, and has the run defense to make Purdue one-dimensional. Grab the points with the Huskies as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, October 16.

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This is a classic wrestler -vs- wrestler matchup, but Erin Blanchfield holds several clear advantages that should tilt the fight in her favor on Saturday night. Blanchfield is an aggressive pressure wrestler who is comfortable marching forward and dictating a high pace. She looks to crash the pocket with strikes before chaining into takedown attempts. Once she gets the fight to the mat she lands heavy ground-and-pound or immediately looks for submissions. Jasmine Jasudavicius is also a wrestler and she is notably big for the division. She typically uses that size to bully opponents and control the clinch and grappling exchanges. When two fighters share the same primary path to victory those styles can neutralize one another. In some cases both wrestlers stay on the feet for long stretches and the fight becomes a striking contest. If this one plays out primarily on the feet Blanchfield should find consistent success. She throws meaningful volume and will not let Jasudavicius set the terms in the pocket. Neither fighter has shown elite striking technique, yet Blanchfield has the clearer process. Jasudavicius is the slower fighter and she relies on a more methodical plotting style. Her hand speed is noticeably lower than Blanchfield’s as well. That difference in output and pace should look favorable to the judges. She will be the one pushing the action and banking rounds through consistent activity. Should the fight hit the ground the edge still leans toward Blanchfield. She has shown the ability to secure dominant positions and control rounds once she lands a takedown. No doubt she is also comfortable in scrambles and regularly finds ways to improve her position during wrestling exchanges. Jasudavicius is durable and she has only been finished once in her professional career, that stoppage came against Manon Fiorot via knockout. Blanchfield does not possess one-punch power so a knockout is unlikely. Jasudavicius should be able to survive on the ground but she is still likely to lose rounds through control and activity. Now at 37 years old Jasudavicius is also approaching the point where physical decline can become noticeable. She has outperformed her skill level during this recent run and believe a further decline is coming. Most importantly, Blanchfield can take away Jasudavicius’s preferred wrestling path and force a high-pace fight that favors her own style. Over three rounds that combination of volume on the feet and positional control on the ground should be enough to secure the win. Give me Erin Blanchfield by decision.

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This is a free play on BYU.

The Irish are the better team, they have more talent. That doesn't change the fact that they have not been tested, and they are in a hostile environment in a night game at BYU. Did you know that the Cougars are 21-1 in home night games since 2019. They are 43-4 in all night games home and away during that span. Yes they will miss LJ Martin, and yeah Bear Bachmeier will have to play like a Heisman candidate for the Cougars to compete here. I still wouldn't bet against them, especially catching double digits.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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(203) Virginia at (204) SMU: Spread

SMU -8.5 (-114)

SMU Mustangs Performance

• Current Record: The Mustangs are coming off a misleading win against Boston College, where they secured a 25-16 victory despite being outgained by 104 yards. The Mustangs’ recent bye week should reset their momentum and bring back the energy and efficiency they displayed earlier this season, contributing to an overall more favorable matchup.

• Home Underdog Success: At home, SMU boasts a 6-1 (86%) record as underdogs or favorites up to -12. Notably, they have covered the spread by an average of 20.5 points per game.

• Offensive Efficiency: SMU’s offense is robust, averaging:

  • 484 yards per game,

  • 346 passing yards per game,

  • An impressive 76% completion rate.

Virginia Cavaliers Performance

• Recent Struggles: Virginia has faced difficulties in their last outings, particularly noted in their two losses where they allowed 400+ yards on defense.

• Outgained in Recent Games: In their last three games against FBS opponents, Virginia has been outgained by:

  • 83 yards,

  • 259 yards,

  • 142 yards.

Betting Trends

• According to system data, away underdogs off a win while being outgained by at least 120 yards have a record of 35-61-3 (37%). This highlights the potential for SMU to capitalize on Virginia’s vulnerabilities when they meet.

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The Cincinnati-West Virginia total is deceptively high: both teams can generate explosive plays, but their run-heavy identities favor sustained possessions and a moving clock over repeated quick-strike scores.

Run-Heavy Game Script

Cincinnati arrives in West Virginia at 4-1 and averages 4.66 points per scoring opportunity, but 55.8% of its plays are runs, with the Bearcats averaging 6.0 yards per carry. West Virginia is even more committed to the ground game, rushing on 72.3% of its plays—the fifth-highest rate nationally—while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and producing 1,773 rushing yards through six games. The Mountaineers’ 26.2% pass rate ranks 134th, reducing clock-stopping incompletions and encouraging longer possessions. Although West Virginia plays quickly at 22.57 adjusted seconds per snap, its extreme rushing volume should offset that tempo by keeping the clock moving.

Efficiency and Ball Security

Cincinnati has struggled against the run, allowing a 46.3% rushing success rate and 0.11 rushing PPA. Even so, West Virginia’s ground-oriented attack must repeatedly execute long drives rather than rely on quick passing touchdowns.

The Bearcats have also protected the football exceptionally well, committing only two turnovers all season. Their quarterbacks have thrown no interceptions and own a 0.00% turnover-worthy-play rate, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). That discipline reduces short fields and defensive touchdowns—two common threats to an Under.

West Virginia averages 9.6 yards per pass when it throws, but its 36.1% passing success rate ranks 121st, and its 52.6% completion rate ranks 131st. Cincinnati is much more efficient through the air, completing 71.8% of its passes, yet averages only 7.5 yards per attempt and continues to lean on a rushing attack ranked fourth nationally in rushing PPA (0.31). West Virginia’s defense—9.7 yards allowed per attempt and a 52.7% passing success rate allowed—is the greatest threat to the Under, but Cincinnati’s balanced, run-oriented approach offers a credible path to limiting possessions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides three supporting Under systems:

• Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points while allowing 45 or more are 473-365 to the Under (56.4%), producing +71.5 units since 2013;

• A subset angle requiring a total of at least 60 points is 272-211 to the Under (56.3%);

• Conference games involving a team coming off a 30-plus-point performance in which its opponent scored more than 48 points are 309-220 to the Under (58.4%) since 1989.

Both offenses rely heavily on the run, Cincinnati protects the football at an elite level, and West Virginia struggles to sustain efficient passing possessions. Combined with the historical systems, those factors support a lower-scoring game. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

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Take Texas (#174)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of College Football Saturday early start games in the SEC: LSU vs Mississippi State and Florida vs Texas.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Longhorns - Gators battle.

Florida is in a world of hurt right now and it’s not going to get any easier heading into Austin to face the former #1 team in the country coming off a ‘we gave it to them’ loss to Oklahoma last Saturday.  The Gators went 4-8 last year, and have been blown out in back-2-back games; not exactly bursting with confidence these days.  They’re likely to be without injured starting QB Aaron Philo.  Unlike Texas, Florda hasn’t had a bye yet.  Expect that to matter in the second half here…. Take Texas.

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Take Washington (#119) 

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of Friday Night TV Games: Purdue vs Washington on Fox and Memphis vs Tulane on ESPN.  Here’s a brief write-up for Purdue- Washington.

I’m a Barry Odom fan and I watched what he did here in Las Vegas — turning a UNLV program that had been mediocre at best for three decades into an immediate winner.  But the Big 10 isn’t the Mountain West.  Odom’s Boilermakers are coming off back-2-back upset wins — fat and happy — now laying more than a field goal.  And Jedd Fisch’s Huskies grade out as the team with more talent.  Even if starting QB Demond Williams can’t suit up (questionable as I post this), his backup can play!  Too many points.  Take Washington.

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PLAY: BROWNS +5

Lamar Jackson sprained his left ankle and missed Sunday night in Atlanta. Jesse Minter says he is "definitely doing better" but would not commit to him for Cleveland, and we won't know more until later in the week. Even if Lamar suits up, his game is built on his legs, and he'd be playing on a bad ankle.

I argued last week that Tyler Huntley is serviceable...and he did just enough to get his team a win on Sunday night.  Bottom line, the -5.5 says it’s Lamar.

Cleveland 2-0 at home on the season, beating Carolina 21-18 and Pittsburgh 27-24. Outside of the opener at Jacksonville, this defense hasn't allowed more than 24 points, and it ranks fourth in the league in red zone defense.

The loss at the Jets was there for the taking (and we are thankful they didn’t!). Cleveland held a two-point lead inside the final five minutes in a steady rain, then a snap sailed over the punter's head and set up the go-ahead score. Isaiah Bond dropped three passes, one of them a touchdown.

Deshaun Watson is 7-2 TD-INT on the season with 167 yards rushing.

Divisional dogs barking once again in the AFC North. Give me the Browns and the points.

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This is a free play on DAL.

We saw a record 51 turnovers in Sunday's NFL games, and Green Bay was one of the teams that benefited the most from that. Their blowout win over the Bears came thanks to five Chicago turnovers. The Packers wins have come in overtime at the Jets in a game that New York dominated in the box score and should have won. They beat practice squad quarterback in Tampa and they won at home against Chicago's 2nd and 3rd string QBs in a game effected by turnovers. That gives them a grand total of zero legit wins if you are asking me. Dallas is still elite offensively, and the Pack aren't the best equipped to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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The Chargers enter this divisional matchup with big problems on offense. Rashawn Slater, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins and Tyler Biadasz are already unavailable, while Joe Alt missed every practice last week. The receiving corps is also depleted, with Tre Harris injured and Ladd McConkey active last week without playing a snap. Not one snap.

These injuries have forced the Chargers into an extremely conservative game plan. The Chargers don't and can't pass on early downs, so defenses, like Denver, crowd the line of scrimmage and make it difficult to run the ball. That gets the Chargers into long 3rd down situations, and when you can't protect your QB, this is what you're left with.

Kansas City is coming off a bye week, so you know they'll be ready for this depleted Chargers team. The Chiefs are an above-average defense again this season, and I expect points to be hard to come by for the Chargers.

The Chiefs aren't exactly a wealth of health either, even off the bye week. Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve, Rashee Rice is managing a hamstring issue, and left tackle Josh Simmons is likely unavailable. Kansas City has also gone Under in 11 of 13 games following a bye under Andy Reid, including all four at home since 2021.

Bottom line to me: I don't see anything but a ton of running in this game, with the clock moving. I would bet this sooner rather than later.

Play: Under 42.5

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

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This is the first meeting between Oklahoma and Kentucky since the Sooners joined the SEC. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week. Kentucky has won-and-covered each of its last four games after last week's home win over LSU. The Wildcats have already earned three outright upset wins in SEC play, and for roughly 45 minutes, it looked like they were going to upset Alabama, too. Kentucky's last five games have all gone over the total, although the last two were both aided by overtime. While Kentucky finds itself in a thriller every week, Oklahoma finds ways to win in the ugliest fashion possible. The Sooners earned the Red River victory over Texas last week with only one touchdown scored on offense. Oklahoma finished with 238 total yards and 14 first downs on 4.2 yards per play. The Sooners went 2-for-13 on third down and had to punt nine times. Laying points with Oklahoma is not easy at the moment, but we can only look in the Sooners' direction. Will Stein deserves a ton of credit for what he is building in Lexington, but at some point, you simply run out of gas. Oklahoma had a bye two weeks ago, so the Sooners' legs are relatively fresh. Kentucky just played back-to-back overtime games in the SEC, and they were pushed to the limit by South Alabama the week before that. At some point, you run out of gas. Oklahoma's defense is top-10 in the country in almost every meaningful metric. Play Oklahoma

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When we’re saying things aren’t the same in Lubbock this year, we’re not talking about the ribeyes at the local Saltgrass Steak House, which remain as good as ever. Rather, it’s the local Red Raiders, who despite being unbeaten like they were at this stage in 2025 are not really doing it in the same manner after stomping through most of their schedule a year ago like Godzilla once did to Tokyo. To wit: unless one timed the bet just right against outclassed Sam Houston, the Red Raiders didn’t have a spread cover the first month of this season until Colorado imploded in a hail of giveaways in the 4th Q at Boulder two weeks ago, turning a close game into a 29-7 Texas Tech win, and even then the Lubbock boys were outgained by the bumbling Buffs. Those issues on offense have been constant all season and a fear among Texas Tech backers since the Brendan Sorsby transfer from Cincinnati went off the rails in the offseason. Holdover QB Will Hammond has yet to look like he's shaken off last year's knee injury while posting very modest (subpar?) numbers including just 5 TD passes along with 5 picks into mid-October, while Joey McGuire’s potential rabbit-up-his-sleeve, mobile ex-BC and Florida State transfer Tommy Castellanos, a possible alternative after his late summer transfer, is now off the table (for the time being, at least) after a Kentucky court just sided with the NCAA and invalidated Tommy’s eligibility. Moreover, despite facing various outmanned foes, the ground game isn’t bullying foes like last season, either, with leading returning rusher Cam Dickey's (1124 YR in 2025) reduced contributions this term and ankle injury suffered at Boulder among other issues. It’s worth noting that it was none other than Arizona State that put the one regular-season blemish on the Red Raiders a year ago at Tempe in Sam Leavitt’s last hurrah as Sun Devils QB before a season-ending injury, so we suppose there is a revenge factor on the side of McGuire’s troops. Our question here is trusting this Arizona State version that was recently exposed by a Baylor side whose offense had previously borne a resemblance to UTEP’s, but would nonetheless burn the Sun Devils for 55 points. Yet Tech’s previous struggles with some comparable or even lesser sides makes us doubt this Red Raider version can be trusted to extend margins like a year ago, and can expect ASU’s Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley (12 TD passes) to at least keep winging the ball for 60 minutes. Play Arizona State **VALID AT +13 AND ABOVE

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This is a free play on ATL moneyline.

The line suggests that Caleb Williams is set to return after suffering what appeared to be a career ending injury against the Vikings. The status of RB1 Kyle Monangai is even more uncertain, and if he does return he will likely not be 100 percent given the turf toe diagnosis. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing, but it's a tough matchup against the Falcons defense that has been one of the top units versus the run. The Falcons are the #2 ranked rushing offense, and the Bears defense doesn't matchup well against Bijan Robinson. If both starting QBs play, this is a case of the wrong team favored IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Carolina.

The Eagles appeared to have punted on the season heading into their game in London versus Jacksonville. We saw that line moved from -2.5 all the way to -7.5 at kickoff. We saw a far more competitive game than most people expected, and the Eagles really should have won. The fact that they did lose, combined with the way they lost, combined with the international travel sets them up for a huge let down. The injuries have piled up, leaving them with 4th string and practice squad running backs this week. Carolina ranks 31st in the NFL against the run, allowing 156 yards per game. Can the Eagles exploit that with a thin offensive line and practice squad running backs? My thought is that they probably can't.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

NBA FUTURES: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

The Rockets have won 52 games in each of the last two seasons, including a 52-30 finish last year despite playing the entire season without starting point guard Fred VanVleet, who suffered a torn ACL shortly before training camp.

VanVleet is back for 2026-27, and I believe his return is significant for a Houston team that finished just 21st in offensive turnover rate last season. The veteran point guard gives the Rockets an experienced floor general alongside a talented core that includes Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr.

Sengun is coming off his second consecutive All-Star appearance, while the 23-year-old Thompson is coming off a breakout season and remains one of the league's premier young defenders. Houston also gets Steven Adams back after the veteran big man suffered a season-ending ankle injury in January.

Rebounding remains a major strength. Houston has led the NBA in rebounding percentage in consecutive seasons, and its 54.5% mark last year was the best by any team in the 30 years of play-by-play data. The Rockets also finished sixth in defensive rating.

Most importantly, Houston doesn't need to match last year's 52-win season for this wager to cash. The Rockets can take a three-win step backward, finish 49-33, and still get us to the window.

With VanVleet and Adams returning to a team that has already won 52 games in back-to-back seasons, I see value in Houston clearing this number.

BET: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Golden Flashes are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bulls will be looking to take out their anger on someone. Kent State represents the perfect victim. Kent State has played three road games and is 0-3 losing by a combined score of 154-10. Granted, those were some very tough venues. However, this is another one. The American Conference is much stronger than the MAC and the Bulls are (at least) a mid tier team from the American Conference while the Flashes are among the weaker teams in the MAC. That makes them one of the weaker teams in the entire country. I've got an angry and superior USF team winning by more than three touchdowns. *good at -21 or better

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Arizona State.

Texas Tech is 5-0, and a double digit home favorite here this week hosting Arizona State. That is despite the fact that the Sun Devils have the better defense (statistically) and the better QB (realistically). Only UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati have allowed more yards per game than Texas Tech so far. I don't think this team is 14.5 points better than Arizona State!

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Massachusetts offers an attractive opportunity as a 6.5-point road underdog against Buffalo, with the Minutemen possessing significant advantages in offensive efficiency and ball security. Despite their 4-2 record, the Minutemen have played the nation's weakest schedule, making their statistical production difficult to evaluate in isolation. Nevertheless, Massachusetts ranks 66th nationally in offensive success rate (44.0%) compared with Buffalo's 130th-place ranking (34.8%), a substantial efficiency advantage that should translate into more manageable down-and-distance situations. The Minutemen also rank 36th nationally in passing PPA (+0.35), while Buffalo's passing offense ranks 118th (+0.05) and generates just 5.2 yards per attempt, the worst mark nationally. Massachusetts completes 69.8% of its passes, ranking 17th nationally, and has thrown only two interceptions, a meaningful advantage over a Buffalo offense that completes just 51.6% of its attempts. Pro Football Focus (PFF) reinforces that quarterback disparity, with the Minutemen holding decisive advantages in clean-pocket passer rating (110.4 to 77.3), passer rating under pressure (93.1 to 57.3), and turnover-worthy play percentage (1.69% to 2.86%).

UMass Quarterback Injuries/Depth

After dropping consecutive MAC games, the Minutemen face an increasingly difficult injury situation heading into Saturday’s trip to Buffalo. Starter Pop Watson missed Saturday’s game and is “unlikely” to return against Buffalo, while true freshman Aedan McCarthy, who made his first career start against Miami, suffered an injury that is expected to keep him sidelined as well. “We’ll see if Pop can go,” head coach Joe Harasymiak said. “I don’t know that. It’ll depend on later in the week, his body and how it responds to everything we’re doing. Probably unlikely for the most part.”

Harasymiak was also pessimistic about McCarthy’s availability. “Aedan is more than likely out with his injury. So we got the two-headed monster right now of Logan (Inagawa) and Ty (McCutcheon) that got to go in there.” Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards after replacing McCarthy against Miami, including a 21-yard touchdown to Max Dowling.

The rushing matchup also favors Massachusetts, which averages 4.9 yards per carry and ranks 65th nationally in rushing success rate (44.9%), compared with Buffalo's 3.7 yards per attempt and 126th-place rushing success rate (35.5%). Buffalo's defensive front has struggled to disrupt opposing rushing attacks, ranking 103rd nationally in stuff rate (16.4%) and allowing 3.09 line yards, creating opportunities for Massachusetts to sustain possessions and avoid obvious passing situations. The Minutemen also rank 19th nationally in defensive points allowed per scoring opportunity (2.75), while Buffalo ranks 61st (3.23). Turnover differential provides another important advantage, as Massachusetts has a +7 margin, ranking eighth nationally, compared with Buffalo's -4 margin, ranking 119th. Massachusetts has also forced 11 turnovers while committing only four, whereas Buffalo has forced just five and committed nine, a disparity that could prove decisive in a matchup with a relatively low total. The Minutemen's deliberate offensive tempo, averaging 29.83 seconds per play compared with Buffalo's 24.45 seconds, should limit possessions and increase the value of each possession.

My technical database also supports Massachusetts, as road underdogs of 3 to 16 points in games with totals between 41 and 46 points have produced a 140-81 ATS record (63.3%; +50.9 units) since 1989. A broader system targeting unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or fewer has generated a 488-379 ATS record (56.3%; +71.1 units) since 1991. Take the Massachusetts Minutemen as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Lakers had a lot of turnover in the offseason, with not a lot of return on investment. While they have the top scorer in the league in Luka Doncic, there are some real concerns on defense. Steph Curry is healthy and Yaxel Lendeborg will be an instant impact player after winning the NBA Summer League MVP in Vegas. LA is laying too many points here and we’ll back Golden State in the dog role. Take the Warriors.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Los Angeles Rams (ATS) | Good until -14.0.

The loss against Buffalo last week definitely hurts. But, against a superbowl contender, the Rams can't be mad about it. They must progress forward. They have a losing record and now host a divisional opponent that's been the worst team in the division for many weeks in a row now. Arizona just traded Marvin Harrison Jr away as well. Go with the Rams - expect a blowout.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Backing the Bruins over the Badgers in the Rose Bowl. You can get (-2.5) in the marketplace, (-3) widely available. Bob Chesney's UCLA squad has looked spectacular out the gate this season. I will be in with more details on this wager later in the week.

10-0 (100%) College Football sides (+46% PROFIT).

(17-2) College Football overall (+63% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

The Bulls pulled off a major upset at Toledo last week. They didn't just beat the Rockets, they dominated them. Toledo didn't score until there was less than five minutes remaining. The final score was 23-8. Consider that the Rockets had won nine straight at the Glass Bowl, outscoring opponents by an average of 48-13 in those nine wins. They entered the game with the top ranked offense in the MAC. Off that extremely impressive victory, I expect the Bulls to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game against UMass. The Minutemen are off a tough 1-point loss vs Miami Ohio. The Bulls won last season's game by seven points (28-21) and the out-gained the Minutemen by a 494-306 margin, in terms of total yards. The two previous meetings saw Buffalo win by scores of 34-3 and 34-7. The should be able to win by at least a touchdown, once again. *good up to -7

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

Trae Young has stated that he’s never had a teammate who could consistently draw double teams, yet every team he’s played for has still won at least 35 games. Now, he gets to play alongside Anthony Davis and No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, giving him a level of talent and offensive support he hasn’t had before.

Trae and AD complement each other extremely well. Trae’s playmaking and ability to create open looks should pair perfectly with Davis’s interior scoring, defensive presence, and ability to dominate on both ends of the floor. Add in Dybantsa and a solid supporting cast, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this team can exceed expectations.

Health is the obvious concern, but I believe they stay on the floor enough to make this roster competitive. With the fourth easiest schedule working in their favor, the opportunity is there to capitalize.

I’m backing the Over 34.5 wins. Trae has already shown he can lead teams to 35 or more wins without this level of talent around him. With Davis and Dybantsa now in the picture, this number is well within reach if they can stay reasonably healthy.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago