Free Sports Predictions JUN 21: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

It’s been a while since we’ve seen New Zealand at the World Cup, but last Monday’s 2-2 draw vs. Iran had a similar look to the last time on the big stage, which would have been 2010, when the courageous Kiwis managed three draws (vs. Slovakia, Paraguay, & Italy) in the group phase.

New Zealand has found some scoring punch from Motherwell’s Elijah Just, who hit a brace in the opener, good news as that burden was seemingly going to fall heavily upon Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood, in the lineup after an injury-filled campaign at the City Ground. Meanwhile, if Mo Salah stays as anonymous for Egypt as he was in the opener vs. Belgium, and after his very subpar campaign at Liverpool, we wonder if the Pharaohs can find an extra gear. (We advise seeking the more palatable NZ price at +0.5 than at +1.5) Play New Zealand on Spread (at Vancouver)

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Backing the Blue Jays over the Cubs on Sunday. Toronto starter Dylan Cease has been great recently, giving up just 1 run over his last two starts combined. He has racked up 110 strikeouts already this season.

Cubs starter Imanaga has been up and down so far this season with a (4-6) record and a (4.20) ERA. He has been tagged with 5 or more earned runs in four of his last six starts. Jays likely get to him here. Plus, Toronto holds the bullpen edge. This one just missed the client card. For Sunday's free pick- Bet Blue Jays.

Free Pick Recap: 9-4 (+5.08 units) 
Friday- Pirates/ Rockies over 11.5 Loss
Thursday- Mets (+108) WINNER 
Wednesday- Pirates (-124) WINNER 
Wednesday- Rays (+172) Loss 
Tuesday- Rangers (-130) Loss
Monday- Nationals (-130) WINNER 
Sunday- Marlins (+140) WINNER 
Saturday- Yankees (-115) WINNER 
Friday- Cardinals (+130) Loss
Thursday- Mets (-140) WINNER 
Tuesday- Rays (-104) WINNER
Monday- Brewers (-154) WINNER 
Sunday- White Sox/ Phillies over 9.5 WINNER 

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This is based almost solely on starting pitching but the SF hitters have been crushing and Gusto is an absolute terrible pitcher.

SFG at MIA — June 21, 2026

Projected score: SFG 4.6, MIA 3.6

San Francisco receives a 60.1% win probability and fair moneyline of -151. The posted -142 price represents a small but positive edge. The projected total is 8.2, but the distribution still gives under 8 a 52.5% conditional win probability because exactly eight runs lands approximately 10.6% of the time.

Applicable performance since May 1, 2025

Webb’s underlying profile across the period is almost exactly one strikeout per inning with a 5.7% walk rate. Gusto has allowed 10.9 hits and 3.6 walks per nine innings.

The ERA differential alone is worth approximately 0.75 projected runs over the expected starter workloads. Webb’s much longer expected outing produces an additional advantage by limiting exposure to San Francisco’s struggling relief group.

Webb’s three June 2026 starts have produced 23 innings, 13 hits, one earned run, one walk and 18 strikeouts. Webb worked at least seven innings in all three starts and completed eight innings in the latest two. The latest outing was eight innings with no earned runs, seven hits, no walks and seven strikeouts.

Gusto’s three June 2026 starts have produced 10⅔ innings, 14 hits, eight earned runs, five walks and six strikeouts. Gusto allowed five runs, eight hits, three walks and two home runs in 4⅔ innings during the latest start.

The June adjustment subtracts 0.35 runs from Miami’s expected production and adds 0.25 runs to San Francisco’s expected production.

San Francisco’s recent offense has been substantially better than the season record suggests. Miami owns the higher scoring rate, while San Francisco holds a slight recent OPS and slugging advantage.

Miami has won the first two games of the series, 4-3 and 6-3, and enters Sunday with an MLB-best 13-4 June record. Miami used eight pitchers Friday, while Pete Fairbanks recorded saves on both Friday and Saturday.

Casey Schmitt homered and doubled twice Saturday. Jung Hoo Lee doubled twice and scored twice. Those performances support the positive San Francisco recent-contact adjustment without receiving excessive single-game weight.

San Francisco’s bullpen entered the series with a 6.30 June ERA. Friday’s late lead was lost after Webb’s rotation partner completed six innings, and Saturday’s bullpen was required to cover six innings after Trevor McDonald lasted only three.

Miami possesses the better recent bullpen form but faces a much larger expected workload. Gusto projects for only four innings, leaving approximately 15 outs for the bullpen.

Miami used eight pitchers Friday. Fairbanks pitched Friday and Saturday, making a third consecutive appearance unlikely. Several middle relievers also worked during Friday’s bullpen game. The workload adjustment adds 0.10 runs to San Francisco’s projection and prevents Miami’s bullpen advantage from becoming larger.

Webb’s expected 6⅔ innings are especially valuable because only seven relief outs are projected for San Francisco.

Projected team boxscore

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On DK, FD, BetMGM or other books, click on SGP and use these alt lines to build the Same Game Parlay.

-Under 11.5 corners

-Leandro Trossard 2+ Shots

-Iran UNDER 1.5 Total Goals

-5 total corners in Iran v New Zealand, 9 total corners in Belgium v Egypt, 7 was from Egypt, on ly 2 for Belgium

-Trossard had 3 against Egypt, had 5 in the last friendly against Tunisia

-Belgium offense may be clunky at times, but defense is stout.  1 goal allowed against Egypt, none allowed against Tunisia and Croation, and only 1 against Mexico.  Iran been scoring goals the last couple games, but not against great opponents.  Belgium too good on defense.

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