Free Sports Predictions SEP 15: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Attacking with Anaheim over Seattle as the home dog is barking in Southern California on Wednesday. Yusei Kikuchi has pitched really well recently, letting up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts combined, lasting 17 innings in the process. He should have another solid outing against the Mariners bats who have struggled against southpaws.

Seattle starter George Kirby has not pitched well over the last month. He has letup an alarming 46 hits in his last 33 innings pitched. The Angels are starting to play some better ball and should get to him in this one. Just missing the client card- For today's free pick- Bet Angels.

5-0 (100%) Mini HEATER Overall L 5 days (+17% PROFIT). 

#1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

My projection is KT 6 – Hanwha 4, and at the prices you gave me I think KT +110 is the side with the value.

KT enters this game on a seven-game winning streak after beating Hanwha 13-3 on September 15, and KT has now dominated this matchup repeatedly. The season series you supplied is 12-3 KT, and KT also swept Hanwha 6-1, 9-6 and 13-11 earlier this month.

My projection

A 57% KT probability translates to roughly -133 fair odds. At +110, the implied probability is only 47.6%, so there is a sizable gap between my projection and the market.

Starting pitching

Ryu Hyun-jin is still the reason Hanwha is favored. His 2026 line is respectable: 3.80 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 104 K against only 17 BB in 125⅔ innings.

But KT already got to him recently. On September 2, Ryu faced KT and allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, on 7 hits in five innings. KT hit .318 against him in that start.

His last five starts have also been inconsistent:

• vs Doosan: 6 IP, 1 ER

• vs KT: 5 IP, 3 ER

• vs SSG: 5 IP, 0 ER

• vs KIA: 6 IP, 4 ER

• vs Doosan: 3⅓ IP, 7 ER

So while Ryu is clearly a capable starter, I'm not treating him like an ace who deserves Hanwha -140 against the best team in the league.

Bae Je-seong's raw season ERA is actually better at 3.31, although his 1.47 WHIP and 29 walks in 54⅓ innings tell us he's considerably more volatile than the ERA suggests.

The concern is specifically Hanwha: Bae has a 6.92 ERA against them and earlier this season he allowed four earned runs in three innings against Hanwha.

That's why I wouldn't make KT a huge favorite despite all of the other advantages.

Where the game shifts toward KT

The bullpen gap matters a lot.

Hanwha's relief staff currently contains a number of very poor season ERAs: Kim Seo-hyeon 8.66, Kim Jong-soo 6.23, Joo Hyun-sang 6.00, Park Jun-yeong 6.13, Kang Jae-min 5.00, Hwang Jun-seo 5.48, plus several others above 4.00.

KT has considerably more usable arms, including Woo Kyu-min 2.63, Daniel 2.61, Son Dong-hyun 3.13, Kim Jeong-woon 3.27, Ju Kwon 3.40, and others.

That makes this particularly interesting because Ryu may give Hanwha the better starter for the first several innings, but KT becomes increasingly attractive once both games reach the bullpens.

KT's offense is also on fire. Their recent run totals entering tonight are:

16, 7, 6, 5, 13

over their last five completed games, including yesterday's 13-run performance against Hanwha.

I would take KT +110 over Hanwha -140.

The market appears to be pricing a substantial portion of Hanwha's advantage around Ryu Hyun-jin vs Bae Je-seong. That's reasonable for F5, but much harder for me to justify over nine innings given:

KT 76-46 vs Hanwha 54-69
KT 12-3 head-to-head
KT seven-game winning streak
KT 13-3 win over Hanwha yesterday
Ryu allowed 4 runs against KT two weeks ago
Major KT bullpen advantage

Projected F5: KT 3, Hanwha 2
Projected final: KT 6, Hanwha 4

At KT +110 / Hanwha -140, I'd be on KT +110.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

For Lotte Giants team total UNDER 2.5 runs through the first 5 innings vs SSG today (Sept. 16), there are several strong arguments in favor. SSG is starting Pedro Avila, while Lotte starts Jeremy Beasley at Sajik.

The biggest reason is Avila’s current form. Since joining SSG, he is 6-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 10 starts/64 innings, allowing only 45 hits, 19 walks and 10 earned runs while striking out 64. He has also allowed zero home runs in those 64 KBO innings. That combination is particularly attractive for a F5 team-total under because Lotte probably needs to manufacture multiple rallies rather than get two or three runs from one swing.

Avila has also been giving SSG length. He is averaging 6.4 innings per start, so this wager should largely be decided against him rather than against SSG's middle relief. His 6.3 H/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 suggest relatively few baserunners plus enough swing-and-miss ability to escape trouble.

Lotte's recent offensive form supports the angle. In their recent games they scored 3, 1, 8, 2 and 3 runs against KT, KT, Kiwoom, KT and Samsung. That's only 17 total runs across five games, and the eight-run game against last-place Kiwoom accounts for almost half of them. They scored only 1 against KT on Sept. 11, 2 on Sept. 13, and 3 against Samsung yesterday.

There's also a broader slump. Going into yesterday's game, Lotte had gone 3-7 over its previous 10 games, which is meaningful given that you're asking them to reach 3 runs before the sixth inning rather than merely score three across nine.

Why 2.5 is particularly interesting

For the bet to lose, Lotte needs 3+ runs in only five innings against a pitcher carrying a 1.41 ERA. Avila's season KBO run prevention roughly translates to only about 0.78 earned runs per five innings at his season rate. Obviously baseball scoring isn't linear and unearned runs count against the bet, but the gap between that baseline and the three-run losing threshold is significant.

My rough matchup projection is:

That puts my projected fair price around -488 for Lotte F5 team total under 2.5. I would deliberately haircut that substantially for model uncertainty—KBO variance, lineup changes, defensive errors, and the possibility Avila has an unusually poor outing.

One additional positive: the full-game market itself is leaning toward a lower-scoring environment. One current market snapshot has the full-game total at 9.0, with the under slightly more heavily priced than the over, and its matchup analysis specifically points to Avila's run suppression as the primary reason.

My projected F5 score: SSG 2.1 – Lotte 1.0.

So I like the Lotte F5 team total U2.5 quite a bit based on the matchup. The main thing I need before calling the actual value is the price.

At -160, the break-even probability is 61.5%.

Using my earlier projection of roughly 83% for Lotte F5 team total Under 2.5, that would imply about a +21.5 percentage-point edge over the market break-even rate. Even if we haircut the projection pretty aggressively to account for model uncertainty and call the true win probability only 70–75%, -160 would still look playable.

At -160, the rough expected ROI would be about +13.8% at 70% win probability, +21.9% at 75%, and +30.0% at 80%.

So Lotte Giants F5 team total Under 2.5 at -160 is a price I like. I’d consider -180 or better still reasonable; once you get into the -200+ range, the value starts getting much thinner.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

(105) Syracuse at (106) Pittsburgh: Total

Total Under 51.5 (-110)

Syracuse is averaging only 18 PPG.

Pittsburgh is allowing just 10.5 PPG.

Syracuse is averaging only 4.9 yards/play.

This is a much better Under setup than the early-season raw scoring numbers might suggest. 

Recent rivalry history strongly favors the Under.

6 of the last 7 meetings have gone Under, averaging only 41 total points.

Play: UNDER 51.5

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

A little late to the party here after seeing the 9.5 flash on Sunday and not grabbing it right away. Hence, the free play versus a premium. Both teams have faced Oregon State this season. Houston beat them 33-20 in Week 1 and held the Beavers to 26 rushing yards. Texas Tech went to Corvallis a week later and won 35-24 while giving up 472 total yards. Two wins over the same opponent, but the box score tells a different story.

If you recall we took under 10.5 wins +185 on here as a free play to start the season. Primarily because the overhype coupled with the giant bullseye on the Red Raiders back for the offseason drama involving Brendan Sorsby. And after seeing Will Hammond for two games we now know why they fought so hard for him.

Couple of injuries on the Tech side of the ball. Tight end Terrance Carter (foot) and edge rusher Trey White (knee) are both game time calls.

Yes, Lubbock at night is worth five to the number. The place is a hostile environment. Texas Tech has won six in a row in this series, including 35-11 in Houston last year. Might be time for the streak to be broken. Worth a little moneyline sprinkle.

PLAY: Houston +7.5. 

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

I am putting Texas Tech on Upset Alert! Everyone can see it, there is a consensus opinion that the Red Raiders have lost a step, and they aren't living up to expectations as favorites to win the BIG12. After a lackluster performance in their season opener versus Albien Christian, they barely beat the Beavers as a 26.5 point favorite in Corvallis on Saturday. The final score doesn't tell the whole story, as the Beavs had the ball down 28-24 inside 2 minutes remaining. They ended up turning the ball over and giving up another TD. The box score shows that Oregon State dominated total yards, and QB Braden Aktinson threw for 413 yards and a pair of TDs. Will Hammond has failed to impress for the Red Raiders. Houston may have the better quarterback and the better coach, and the advantages the Red Raiders were expected to have may not be as significant as expected.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

The Chargers knocked a ton of survivor players out with a 26-14 loss at home last week to an Arizona team that had a preflop win total of 4.5. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he regretted not getting his starters more playing time in the preseason, and it showed on the field. LA had 2 turnovers and was outgained 393-268 in total yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders handled business in a 2 touchdown win over Miami as the Klink Kubiak era got off to a good start. Also keep in mind that this will be like a home game for the Raiders due to the huge fan base and the lack of local support for the Chargers. Vegas still has a ways to go before becoming a serious contender, but we’ll play the number getting a full touchdown against a Chargers’ squad that was clearly overvalued in the betting market. Take the Raiders.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

Dabo Swinney will be shown the door soon at Clemson and we’ll fade them with points in our pocket as they clash with UNC on Saturday. The season started with a humiliating 51-10 loss to LSU and last week the Tigers failed to cover again against Georgia Southern. Once an elite organization, Swinney’s inability to adjust to the current landscape of college football has led his team straight downhill, and they’re off to an 0-2 ATS start as a result. North Carolina got their revenge on TCU to kick off the season, winning outright as over a touchdown underdog before an easy winner against ETSU. Bill Belichick has essentially had 3 weeks to prepare for this game after facing the much lower level competition, and we have a live dog on our hands when the Tar Heels head to Clemson in early action Saturday. Take UNC.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

The Hoosiers dominated each of their first two opponents but came up just short of covering. Laying -40.5 points, they beat North Texas by 36. Last week, laying -57.5, they won by 55. This week's number isn't as big as last week's and should allow the defending champs a chance for their first ATS victory. WKU has played a very tough schedule, as this will be its third straight road game. WKU lost by 50 at Georgia last week and by 35 at Nevada to start the season. If the Wolf Pack can beat the Hilltoppers by 35, imagine what the Hoosiers will do. Catching their guests playing a third straight road game, the Hoosiers should be able to win by at least as many as Georgia did. Expect this one to be totally lopsided from the start.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago