Free Sports Predictions NOV 3: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

App State has won each of the last 12 meetings in this Sun Belt series. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, including a 41-20 road win at Georgia State last week. We've successfully played against the Panthers each of the last three weeks, and we're not getting off that train this week. It's been a rinse-and-repeat formula for Georgia State. We don't want to take anything away from what the Panthers have accomplished thus far, because clearing your projected season win total by the first week of October is still something to celebrate, no matter who you are. But with all due respect to Georgia State, wins over North Carolina A&T, Kennesaw State, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion aren't moving the needle for us. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-26 this season. Over the last three weeks against James Madison, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have fallen short of point spread expectations by an average of 14.2 points per game. Throw in a 14-point loss to UCF earlier this season, and the Panthers haven't come close to beating a half-decent team this year. The final score of last week's 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina looks respectable, but that was a 31-6 game in the third quarter before the Chanticleers put things on cruise control for the final minutes. Georgia State's defense forced three turnovers but the Panthers' offense couldn't do anything with the extra possessions. Play App State

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Based on some early-week content that we have consumed this week, there is likely going to be some back-and-forth action on this game. Those looking to back UConn will point to North Carolina's schedule and the presumed let-down spot after the Tar Heels lost back-to-back games against Syracuse and Miami (Fla) by a total of four points. Add those to weather-related losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, and North Carolina has been snakebitten for large stretches of the season. We're not ready to buy into that narrative just yet. There's about ten programs in the country where you can ignore "letdown spot" narratives (i.e. the military academies), and a Bill Belichick-coached team is probably one of them. You think the guy that has over 300 wins in the NFL is going to let his team have a let-down spot? Especially in the northeast where he's still got quite a following? Don't forget, the Tar Heels didn't make a bowl game last season, so simply reaching six wins and going to a bowl game is still a goal for this team. Realistically, how much can you downgrade North Carolina after these recent losses? They certainly stung, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of the last five games. So you can't downgrade UNC from a power ratings perspective, because they've actually overperformed expectations. The team that fell short of expectations last week is UConn, who couldn't beat Air Force with an ex-linebacker playing quarterback that didn't complete a pass. The Huskies just played at altitude in the Mountain Time Zone and had to defend 74 Air Force rushing plays. We'll make the argument that UConn is the team on letdown alert this week, not North Carolina.
Play North Carolina

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This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests. Play Cowboys (Team Total) Over

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From a sheer numbers perspective, TCU (plus the points) looks like a good value this week. I don’t think this spread should be above a touchdown, quite frankly. The Horned Frogs were part of a winning ML parlay for me last Saturday as they scored a late TD to defeat Kansas 22-14. Now, we probably were a little lucky considering Kansas was +165 in total yards.

But, as I put in the writeup (which you can, of course, read down below), TCU was due for some good luck. All four of the Horned Frogs’ losses this season have been by eight points or fewer. So, again, grabbing +9.5 with them this week makes a lot of sense. TCU has a Top 10 scoring defense in the country. Just 14.1 PPG allowed. They’re also Top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, it's a bit of a letdown spot here for Arizona, after a close loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. I would not want to lay this number with them on Friday. Not with a bigger home game (vs. Utah) on deck.

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Minnesota has held up pretty well in Anthony Edwards’ absence, but his loss will be felt in Houston. The Rockets are 7-1 both straight up and against the spread, including a spotless 4-0 mark at home, and they own the top record in the Western Conference. Their last four wins have come by margins of 10, 32, 21 and 16 points. These teams played tight games last season, but this one looks like it could get out of hand. Lay the points.

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The Blackhawks have allowed five goals in back-to-back games. They've allowed at least four goals in five of their last seven. On the season, they're allowing an average of 3.87 goals per game. The Panthers also allowed five goals in their last game. Prior to that, they scored five goals in consecutive games. Florida should score at least four and Chicago should be able to chip in at least a couple. Go with the over.

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This is a free play on MIN (Outright).

UCLA is still undefeated, and 8-0 ATS. They are down to a backup QB, and this game at Minnesota will be his first start on the road. Traveling east for BIG10 road games has been a death sentence for former PAC12 teams. Minnesota already has wins over Iowa and Michigan at home. Last week they went to overtime in a road game at Indiana, but came up short. The Gophers are only allowing opponents to average 15 points per game at home. I'll take the home dog to win outright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Two of the nation’s top teams square off in Baton Rouge Saturday as the great rivalry between Alabama and LSU gives us another chapter. With both teams having 2 losses, the implications are enormous, and LSU has not looked impressive when asked to step up in class. Already with losses over Ole Miss and Kentucky, the Tigers have yet to beat an elite opponent. We know that quarterback Sam Leavitt is turnover prone, and that’s bad news against a defense like Alabama has. Keelon Russell has been great for the Tide and we’ll put over a field goal in our pocket as they make a statement in Death Valley. Take Alabama.

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Toledo enters Wednesday night's matchup with a clear advantage in offensive efficiency, quarterback production, and defensive performance against a Sacramento State team that has struggled to stay competitive all season. The Rockets are 6-2 and rank tenth nationally in yards per game at 475.5, while Sacramento State is just 2-7 despite facing one of the nation's weakest schedules. Toledo's offense is particularly dangerous through the air, averaging 8.7 yards per pass attempt and generating 0.39 passing points per play, with an impressive 48.0% passing success rate. That production creates a significant mismatch against a Sacramento State defense allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt, 0.26 passing points per play, and a 1.65 passing explosiveness rating. Toledo quarterback John Alan Richter is coming off an outstanding performance against Western Michigan, completing 29 of 41 passes for 391 yards and three touchdowns while leading an offense that totaled 595 yards and 32 first downs. The Rockets also possess a reliable ground attack, highlighted by CJ Miller's 183 rushing yards against Western Michigan, providing the offensive balance necessary to exploit Sacramento State's defensive vulnerabilities.

The Hornets have been among the nation's least efficient offensive teams, producing a 37.9% overall success rate, ranking in the bottom 15 nationally, while averaging just 2.66 points per scoring opportunity. Sacramento State's passing attack has been particularly ineffective, generating essentially zero passing points per play with a 35.8% success rate and only 5.6 yards per attempt, ranking near the bottom nationally in all three categories. Toledo's defense presents a difficult matchup for that struggling offense, allowing just a 32.9% overall success rate and an exceptionally low 28.6% rushing success rate, ranking among the nation's best in both categories. The Rockets have also limited opposing quarterbacks to a 54.0% completion rate and 6.0 yards per attempt, making sustained scoring drives particularly difficult for a Sacramento State offense that has exceeded 17 points only twice this season. Toledo has scored at least 34 points in all six victories and has converted an impressive 94.1% of its red-zone opportunities, demonstrating its ability to turn offensive possessions into points. Sacramento State's 31-10 victory over Kent State does little to change the underlying matchup, as the Hornets managed just 278 total yards and committed ten penalties for 89 yards against another struggling opponent.

My technical database further supports Toledo:

• Play On: Double-digit MAC favorites playing on days other than Saturday are 111-89 ATS (55.5%) since 2000, generating +13.1 units and a +6.0% ROI;

• Play On: Teams with at least seven days of rest, coming off games in which they attempted 13 or fewer third downs against opponents penalized at least seven times, are 450-368 ATS (55.0%) since 2015, generating +45.2 units and a +5.0% ROI;

• Play On: Double-digit conference road favorites in their fifth game or later, facing opponents coming off victories who missed the previous season's playoffs, are 168-127 ATS (56.9%) since 2009, generating +28.3 units and a +8.7% ROI.

Toledo's offensive efficiency, explosive passing attack, and outstanding defensive success-rate metrics create an excellent opportunity to overwhelm a Sacramento State team that has struggled against considerably weaker competition. The Rockets should control the line of scrimmage, generate consistent scoring opportunities, and limit a one-dimensional Hornets offense that has rarely sustained drives. Take the Toledo Rockets as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, November 4.

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