Free Sports Predictions OCT 8: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Barcelona ML -125 — best bet

I like this more than Barcelona -1.5, because at only -125 you're paying very little to remove a close-game loss.

Barcelona is 2–1 in EuroLeague while Žalgiris is 1–2. An independent current-season model also has Barcelona around 66% to win and approximately Barcelona -4.5, versus a market that is effectively pricing this close to a toss-up.

The injury matchup favors Barcelona

Žalgiris has an important backcourt problem:

Nigel Williams-Goss — OUT
Saben Lee — game-time decision, hasn't played Rounds 1–3 because of a hamstring strain

So they're potentially playing another EuroLeague road game without both of their primary guard additions.

Barcelona isn't completely healthy either:

Justin Minaya — OUT
Yoan Makoundou — OUT
Josh Nebo — game-time
Tosan Evbuomwan — game-time

But Nebo and Evbuomwan have returned to practice, so Barcelona potentially gets healthier rather than thinner..

The concern is the interior matchup. Žalgiris can attack through Jonas Valančiūnas and Tubelis, especially if Nebo cannot play. That's probably their clearest route to an upset. A current matchup preview specifically identifies the Žalgiris low-post advantage as Barcelona's biggest problem.

But guard creation matters enormously on the road. Without Williams-Goss, and with Lee questionable, I favor Barcelona's ability to generate better possessions late.

Home/away context

Žalgiris' first road EuroLeague game was a 82–78 loss at Paris. Barcelona's only EuroLeague home game was the loss to Dubai, so the sample is far too small for a meaningful home/away statistical trend. I would therefore apply normal EuroLeague home-court value rather than overfit those single games.

Projection

Barcelona 88
Žalgiris 82

Fair spread: Barcelona -5 to -6

Fair ML: approximately -185 to -195

Your line:

Barcelona ML -125

That's a meaningful pricing gap.

Barcelona ML -125 — 4.5/5

I prefer:

ML -125 > -1.5 -112 > Under 173.5

Barcelona vs Žalgiris — current-season ranking comparison

Actual current-season numbers

Barcelona's strongest profile is clearly shot-making efficiency. They rank 4th in 2PT%, 6th in 3PT%, and 5th in scoring, while Žalgiris is only 16th in 2PT% and 12th in PPG. Barcelona is shooting 59.6% on twos compared with just 50.8% for Žalgiris.

The major warning sign for Barcelona ML is the interior/possession battle. Žalgiris is currently #1 in offensive rebounding, #3 in total rebounding and #3 in blocks, while Barcelona sits 16th, 18th and 20th in those respective categories. That is a huge physical advantage for Žalgiris and probably the clearest route to an upset.

Still, the scoring efficiency gap favors Barcelona. Barcelona scores 6.3 more points per game, has a 12-place advantage in 2PT% ranking, shoots better from three and from the line, and gets home court. Žalgiris' defense has been slightly better by raw opponent PPG—84.0 versus Barcelona's 86.0—but the gap is small.

How this affects Barcelona ML -125

I would keep Barcelona ML as the preferred bet, but the ranking table makes me slightly more cautious than the offensive numbers alone suggested.

Barcelona advantages: shooting efficiency, scoring, free throws, home court.
Žalgiris advantages: offensive rebounding, total rebounding, rim protection, slightly better points allowed.

My matchup interpretation remains roughly:

Barcelona 87–83 Žalgiris

The single biggest concern for Barcelona bettors is Žalgiris' #1 offensive-rebounding ranking against Barcelona's #18 overall rebounding ranking. If Barcelona merely holds the rebounding deficit to something manageable, their much better 2-point efficiency gives them the stronger path to winning.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS — UNDER 43

I like the Under 43 points in Sunday's Bengals-Dolphins matchup. Miami's offensive struggles have been a major problem all season, and I don't expect the Dolphins to suddenly find their scoring touch against a Cincinnati team that can pressure the quarterback.

The biggest reason to like the Under is Miami's inability to generate points. The Dolphins are averaging just 11.5 points per game, ranking last in the NFL. They have struggled to sustain drives and turn possessions into touchdowns, and that makes it difficult to see them contributing enough to push this game over 43.

Cincinnati also has a potentially significant advantage on the defensive front. The Bengals have recorded 14 sacks through four games, ranking among the league's best, while Miami has managed only four sacks. If Cincinnati can pressure Miami's quarterback and force hurried decisions, the Dolphins could have another long afternoon offensively.

The Bengals have their own offensive concerns heading into Sunday. Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a concussion, while Tee Higgins has been sidelined by injuries. Both were absent from Wednesday's practice, and if either misses the game, Cincinnati could lose some of its explosive passing ability. That would make it harder for the Bengals to carry the scoring load themselves.

I also like the possibility of Cincinnati controlling the game once it gets a lead. The Bengals can lean on their running game, shorten possessions and force Miami to prove it can score consistently. With the Dolphins struggling to reach even 20 points, that is a favorable game script for the Under.

The key is that we don't need either defense to completely dominate. If Miami scores somewhere around 10–17 points and Cincinnati finishes in the mid-20s, this total stays below 43.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

The Capitals are off a 5-3 win over Pittsburgh. Two of their three games have finished with seven goals or more. The Rangers are off a 5-2 win over the Islanders. Three of their last four games have produced at least six goals. The last three meetings between these teams finished with nine, nine and 10 goals. The 'over' is also a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Rangers played at Washington. Those five games averaged 8.8 goals. This one should finish with at least six. Go with the over.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This matchup favors what Memphis does best offensively. The Tigers are averaging 541.2 yards per game and 7.98 yards per play, including 250.4 rushing yards per game. Jaylin Carter is averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game and 7.33 yards per carry, giving Memphis a significant ground-game advantage against the weaker portion of the UAB defense.

There is also major revenge motivation after UAB stunned #22 Memphis 31-24 as a 23.5-point underdog last season. The Tigers haven't forgotten that loss, and this year's offense is operating at an elite level behind Marcus Stokes and his 14-3 TD/INT ratio. Memphis just produced 674 yards in a 59-8 destruction of Charlotte, while UAB quarterback Ryder Burton has only four touchdown passes against four interceptions.

The situation also fits, with UAB 0-6 ATS as an underdog of fewer than 20 points against teams winning at least 75% of their games. Memphis owns the offensive mismatch, quarterback advantage, home field, and a significant revenge incentive after last year's embarrassing upset.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on OKLA.

If you go back to Week 2, Oklahoma was a -5.5 point road favorite at Michigan. At the time Michigan looked downright terrible (they still do) and everyone including me thought the Sooners would win that game. Those who bought Michigan stock at the bottom, were rewarded with an outright win. Now coming off a bye, we should expect the Sooners to throw the kitchen sink at Texas. Now John Mateer has become a laughing stock in college football circles, but as bad as he has looked, the numbers suggest this might be overblown. After all Oklahoma won 10 games and went to the playoffs last year, and he didn't play particularly well after the thumb injury last season. In fact he has a better TD/INT ratio, a higher completion percentage and a higher YPA so far this year than he did last season. Please understand, I am not trying to tell you Mateer is good, just suggesting that maybe the Sooners aren't going to lose the rest of their games this year. Now Texas on the other hand is avoiding the negativity because they are undefeated, but Arch Manning is still not living up the hype. At first glance most people think Texas should win this game easily .. I don't think it's going to be quite that simple. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Not long ago Malcolm Wellmaker looked like one of the clearer rising names in the division. He was 10-0, with all three of his UFC wins coming by first round knockout. He was walking opponents down, landing clean and ending nights early. The trajectory felt straightforward, then two losses changed the conversation. Back-to-back defeats created real doubt about his skill set and about how high his ceiling actually sits. Even with that context, the profile is still clear. Wellmaker is an explosive power puncher who builds his game around boxing and pressure. He likes to force the action and looks most dangerous when he can set his feet and let his hands go. While Otari Tanzilovi is a different type of problem. He is decently well rounded and prefers to come forward. He throws big spinning attacks and often hides takedown attempts behind combinations. On paper there is a path for him. If he can turn the fight into a wrestling match and keep Wellmaker on the mat, the night gets complicated for the power puncher. Wellmaker has shown some recent vulnerability defending takedowns, so that route is not imaginary, but the quality of the opposition matters here. Wellmaker’s last two losses came against Ethyn Ewing and Juan Diaz. Ewing is a physical monster. Diaz looks like a solid fighter as well. Both can strike at a high-level that forces respect and both have shown they can time takedowns off of strikes. That combination is hard to deal with. Tanzilovi has not shown the same package. Otari did find takedowns in his last two fights, but those came against Shane Collins and Josias Musasa. Neither of those opponents carry anything close to Wellmaker’s power or explosiveness. Landing shots and mixing in wrestling against that lower level of opposition is not the same job as doing it against a finisher who can end the fight with one clean sequence. This fight is a sizable step down in competition for Wellmaker and a step up for Tanzilovi. On the feet the edge should belong to Wellmaker. He can press the action, lean on the power advantage and make Tanzilovi pay for coming forward. Spinning attacks and layered entries are useful tools, but they also create windows against a fighter who punches this hard. If the fight stays upright for long stretches, Wellmaker should be the one dictating. At slight plus money I like this spot with 8 of Wellmaker's 10 professional wins coming inside the distance.

Free Play:

Malcolm Wellmaker wins by knockout or submission (+105)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a traditional two-team, six-point "Wong" teaser as we're taking both the Saints and Packers up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Here's why, in both instances, I prefer to tease the two sides ...

2% Teaser - New Orleans (1:00 ET) and Green Bay (1:00 ET) - The Saints were humiliated on Monday night, losing to the rival Falcons 45-24, in a game that was designed to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of the Superdome re-opening after Hurricane Katrina. So there should be a sense of desperation/motivation in New Orleans, especially coming off back to back home losses that leave the team at 1-3 SU. Before the season, many people tabbed the Saints as the favorite to win the NFC South. They've still got a shot, obviously, but falling behind on a weekly basis has haunted Kellen Moore's team. It would be a shock to see them lose three in a row at home. But what makes the teaser option so appealing is that each of the Saints' first three games were decided by seven points or less. I also seriously doubt Minnesota's ability to win by margin, given their offense ranks 31st in total yards and could again be without WR Justin Jefferson. While the Vikings are one of three teams still undefeated, they've scored just two touchdowns in the last three games and one of those was by the special teams!

This marks the first time since 2006 that the Packers aren't at least a three-point favorite at home vs. the Bears. That was the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl. Clearly, the Bears are the better team now, but they don't win by margin very often and it's a great value teasing the Packers up in this spot. Yes, Chicago should have won by a bigger margin last week vs. the Jets. They had 34 first downs while the Jets ran a total of only 32 plays! But the Packers also should have won by a bigger margin last week. They turned the ball over twice inside the 10-yard line in Tampa. It's pretty crazy that the Bears only closed -3.5 last week vs. the Jets (at home!) and are now favorites, on the road, against their arch rival. I get that Green Bay has issues, particularly along the offensive line, but Matt LaFleur is rarely a home dog. Remember the Bears are starting backup QB Tyson Bagent. 2% Teaser - New Orleans (must be +7.5 or higher) and Green Bay (must be +7.5 or higher).

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

PLAY: K-STATE -2.5

Kansas State has had two weeks to get ready for this one. The Wildcats were off last week after a 31-26 loss at Cincinnati, touchdown favorites. Thei defense got torched, but on the season is allowing just 246 yards and 106 passing yards per game. Avery Johnson has 910 passing yards and another 291 on the ground. If the Wildcats want to win this game they know how to do it (on the ground!!)

Houston is 4-1, but its only road game against a Power 4 opponent was a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech. Conner Weigman has 11 touchdown passes, one interception, but UCF held him without a touchdown pass last week, 18-of-33 for 239 yards.

The last time Houston came to Manhattan, Kansas State won 41-0. This number has sat at 2.5 all week, under the field goal, with the home team coming off a bye… Kansas State -2.5.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Tulane is an attractive road underdog because the matchup is closer than the teams' raw scoring numbers suggest, and the Green Wave have several characteristics that can keep this game inside the number. Army is averaging 33.3 points and 432.8 yards per game, but those numbers have been accumulated against an extremely soft schedule (No. 109 nationally), compared with Tulane’s (No. 31). Army runs on approximately three-quarters of its snaps and generates 0.35 EPA per rush, but the Green Wave have allowed a 37.0% rushing success rate, which ranks 41st nationally. Tulane has been susceptible to explosive runs but has been considerably more effective at preventing opponents from consistently staying ahead of schedule, an important distinction against an Army offense that needs efficient early-down rushing to remain on script.

Tulane's offense has struggled with consistency, but its explosiveness gives it a legitimate counterpunch, ranking No. 1 nationally in both overall offensive explosiveness (1.51) and rushing explosiveness (1.35). That big-play ability becomes especially important against an Army defense that has surrendered 4.7 yards per rush and ranks 115th in PFF's defensive power ratings.

Army’s National Defensive Metrics/Rankings

• 62.8 PFF Defense Grade (129th)

• 63.9 PFF Run Defense Grade (127th)

• 52.0 PFF Tackling Grade (119th)

• 57.8 PFF Coverage Grade (116th)

The Black Knights have also been vulnerable to explosive passing plays, allowing 8.6 yards per opponent pass attempt, so Tulane does not necessarily need to sustain long, methodical drives to generate points. Tulane should have success moving the chains both on the ground and through the air Saturday based on the following advanced metrics: 79.5 PFF Run Grade (63rd), 62.4 PFF Run Blocking Grade (58th), and 75.3 PFF Pass Grade (51st). Tulane has also protected the football exceptionally well, averaging just 0.3 giveaways per game (13th nationally), which is particularly valuable in a possession-limited matchup against Army. Tulane also enters with a substantial rest advantage, which is especially valuable against Army's unique option offense because the extra practice time lets the defense devote more reps to assignment discipline and gap responsibility.

Technician’s Corner:

My technical database provides substantial support for Tulane, with the strongest angles centered on the Green Wave’s rest advantage, bounce-back situation, and Army’s vulnerable favorite profile.

• 199-111 ATS (64.2%) - Play On conference road underdogs of less than +24 coming off an ATS loss when facing an opponent with less rest and the same or better record. This situation has generated +76.9 units since 1989;

• 190-103 ATS (64.8%) - Conference road underdogs of +24 or less coming off an ATS loss are 64.8% ATS against opponents with the same or better winning percentage, less rest and three or more wins the previous season. The system has produced +76.7 units and a 23.8% ROI since 1989;

• 163-103 ATS (61.3%) - Unranked conference road underdogs with 13-16 days of rest are 61.3% ATS against opponents operating on the standard 6-7 days of rest when the total is between 42.5 and 59;

• 364-274 ATS (57.1%) - Small-to-medium rested road underdogs coming off an ATS loss are 57.1% ATS when both teams are unranked;

• 91-59 ATS (60.7%) - Conference road teams coming off an ATS loss with more rest than an opponent coming off a road loss as an underdog are 60.7% ATS since 1989;

• 31-19 ATS (62.0%) - Army has historically struggled when asked to lay a moderate number, with opponents covering 62% of games in which the Black Knights have been favored by -3 to -7 since 1989;

• 65-23 ATS (73.9%) - Play Against favorites coming off consecutive games in which they allowed at least 6.5 yards per rushing attempt. This is the strongest individual fade system in my database for this matchup, producing a 73.9% ATS record, +39.7 units and a 41.0% ROI since 1998.

Tulane lands in an unusually strong cluster of profitable road-underdog systems, with several independent angles producing long-term cover rates above 60%. The Green Wave’s extended rest and bounce-back profile are the recurring themes, while Army’s history as a moderate favorite and the powerful 65-23 ATS fade angle provide additional support. Tulane's run-defense success rate, explosive-play ability, ball security, stronger schedule, and significant rest advantage give the Green Wave multiple ways to stay competitive in a game where Army's clock-draining style naturally reduces possessions and increases the value of every point. Take Tulane plus the points as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 10.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Detroit has a strong bounce-back opportunity against an Arizona defense with few answers for what the Lions do best offensively.  Detroit ranks 3rd in offensive power and owns a substantial efficiency advantage through the air: +0.28 EPA per pass versus Arizona’s -0.03.  Jared Goff has been outstanding despite Detroit’s uneven 2-2 start, earning an 85.8 PFF grade while producing a 119.0 passer rating from a clean pocket and a low 0.56% turnover-worthy play rate.  The matchup is especially favorable because Arizona's defense grades poorly across the board, per PFF’s advanced metrics: 56.0 overall, 59.8 in run defense, 49.6 in tackling and just 48.2 in coverage.  Arizona’s coverage grade is particularly concerning against a Detroit passing game that boasts an 86.4 PFF grade and features clear matchup problems at Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.  Detroit ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and has another favorable environment in Arizona on Sunday.

The underlying numbers from Detroit's 32-26 loss to Carolina are far more encouraging than the final score: Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while Detroit generated 412 passing yards on 53 dropbacks.  Detroit's receiving usage was equally impressive, with Williams producing 102 yards, LaPorta 84, St. Brown 75, and Isaac TeSlaa 95, giving Goff four legitimate weapons to attack an Arizona secondary that has struggled badly in coverage.  The Lions are now sixth in EPA per dropback (+0.20), and their willingness to lean on the pass should maximize the biggest mismatch in this game.

Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a respectable 79.0 PFF grade, but his efficiency collapses under pressure, where his passer rating falls to 38.2.  Brissett also ranks last among 30 qualified quarterbacks at only 5.4 yards per attempt.   Arizona's Week 4 performance reinforces that limitation: Brissett needed 35 attempts to generate only 166 passing yards while throwing three interceptions, and the Cardinals' passing offense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.10).  The veteran signal caller now faces a Detroit stop unit ranked second in the league with an 81.6  PFF pass rush grade and first with an 85.2 PFF tackling grade.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database strongly reinforces the case for Detroit, with several high-performing systems converging on the Lions as a short road favorite coming off a loss.  The strongest angles center on Detroit’s bounce-back profile, its recent success under Dan Campbell, and its history of being a profitable road favorite in high-total games.

·        143-74 ATS (65.9%)  - Play On road favorites of -6 or less in Weeks 3-14 with totals of 46+ when their previous game went Over the total.  This powerful system has produced +61.6 units since 1989;

·        94-56 ATS (62.7%) - Road favorites of less than -7 coming off an ATS loss in a game that went Over are 62.7% ATS when the current total is 46 points or more;

·        114-77 ATS (59.7%) - Road teams coming off an upset road loss as favorites of less than six points have covered 59.7% of the time since 2000;

·        15-3 ATS (83.3%) - Detroit has been exceptional at rebounding from losses under Dan Campbell, covering 15 of 18 games following a defeat since November 2022;

·        50-28 ATS (64.1%) - The Lions are 64.1% ATS since 2020 when laying no more than seven points in games with totals of 45 points or more;

·        107-59 ATS (64.5%) - Teams that have gone three consecutive games without committing a turnover are 64.5% ATS against opponents that have committed at least three turnovers over their previous three games;

·        97-69 ATS (58.4%) - Teams coming off a loss after winning 11+ games the previous season are 58.4% ATS against opponents that won fewer than eight games the previous year;

·        50-27 ATS (64.9%) - Play Against home teams that won fewer than six games the previous season when they have allowed more points than expected in consecutive games and are coming off a double-digit loss without reaching both 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.

Detroit fits one of the strongest technical profiles on the Week 5 board: a quality team in a bounce-back spot, laying a manageable number on the road in a high-total game.  With a substantial quarterback advantage, a far more explosive passing attack, and an ideal matchup against one of PFF's lowest-graded coverage units, Detroit is positioned to rebound decisively on Sunday.  Lay the points with the Lions as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Take Atlanta (#476)

I’m not going to overthink this one.  The Ravens are coming off a win, playing on the road with their backup quarterback.  Snoop Huntley is no Lamar Jackson, to put it mildly.  Baltimore has back-2-back division games on deck after this, followed by a trip to Buffalo, making this their single LEAST important game for the next month.  Atlanta’s full season stats are lying; a completely different team since Michael Penix took over behind center in Week 3.  And when a team’s full season stats aren’t telling the true story, it can take weeks for the betting markets to catch up.  If I’m playin’, I’m layin’.  Take the Falcons.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on UCLA.

We so Bob Chesney go up against the Oregon Ducks and Dan Lanning in the Playoffs last year, and the James Madison Dukes lost by a score of 51-34. The Dukes scored 34 points and covered the spread, but now Chesney and several of those players are at UCLA. The Bruins are undefeated but haven't played anybody. That said, we already saw Boise State give the Ducks a run for their money at Eugene, and I don't think it's a stretch to think UCLA can do something similar. Oregon is coming off an emotional win over USC, losing their QB to a concussion. This might be a tough spot for the home favorite.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on LV.

The Raiders are off to impressive start, and even though they are coming off a home loss to Kansas City they did cover the spread. Kirk Cousins engineered a late touchdown drive to pull the Raiders within three. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 11 TD passes so far this season. Drake May on the other hand is also among the league leaders, but leading the NFL with seven INTs isn't nearly as impressive. The Pats benefited from a soft schedule last year, and that success hasn't translated so far in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take North Carolina State (#356)

Saturday early start ‘Double Gamer’ video below: Wake Forest vs NC State and Arizona vs West Virginia.  Here’s a brief write-up of the ACC affair!

Wake Forest is coming off an absolute annihilation of Stanford (the third time this year the Cardinal have been held to seven points or less). Now the Demon Deacons are laying more than a field goal in rivalry game in Raleigh; a pointspread that seems a notch or two too high.  NC State has notched back-to-back wins since their last second debacle loss at Vanderbilt; responding well to adversity.  I expect the Wolfpack to hang tough in early start action on Saturday.  Take NC State.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take BYU (#326)

Friday Night ‘Double Gamer’ video below: BYU vs Iowa State and Iowa vs Washington.  Here’s a brief write-up of the later game!

My clients and I cashed with BYU last week and got lucky with a late Cougars TD to cover the spread.  I’d rather be lucky than right any day of the week, but I’m not convinced Kilane Sitake’s Cougars are going to need much luck here to beat an Iowa State team with a dismal looking defense on a short week with travel.  And we’re getting a cheap number because of the injury to BYU running back LJ Martin.  By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, I don’t expect this one to be very close. Take BYU.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: STEELERS -2.5

On paper Indianapolis won by 17 in London…. but they played worse than the final score… The Colts’ first five drives against Washington went fumble, punt, punt, punt, interception. Their two touchdown drives started at the Washington 46 and the Washington 20. Daniel Jones finished 19-of-34 for 143 yards with no touchdowns, and the Colts averaged 3.9 yards per play against a team that committed 10 penalties and finished the game with its third quarterback.

Now they fly home from London and then off to Pittsburgh, against a Steelers team that hasn’t played since Thursday night at Cleveland. Pittsburgh gets 10 days to get ready for this one, and extra time has been good to this franchise. The Steelers have won nine straight games coming off a bye, and Mike McCarthy is 12-6 off a bye as a head coach. Indianapolis hasn’t thrown for more than 211 yards in a game this season, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and Arden Key will miss time with a hamstring.

Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland but won the first downs and the time of possession, and all three Browns touchdowns came in one second-quarter stretch. Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes over his last two games, and Jaylen Warren has run for 220 yards on 34 carries in that stretch. At home the Steelers are 2-0. The last time Jones came to Pittsburgh, he threw three interceptions and the Colts turned it over six times in a 27-20 loss.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Backing the Bulldogs over the Tide in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Other than Alabama struggling against FSU for a half, both teams have cruised to a (5-0) record on the season. It is not easy going on the road in the SEC, however Georgia has traveled very well recently. Kirby Smart's squad with the veteran Gunnar Stockton behind center the last two years is (4-0) in road games, winning each of the last two by 20+ points. For this week's free pick- Bet Georgia.

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Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

On paper, Tennessee looks like the obvious side. The Volunteers are 4–1, ranked No. 15, and their only loss was a three-point defeat to Texas. But laying 13.5 points on the road in an SEC game is a different question, particularly against an Arkansas team whose record is worse than its schedule context suggests.

Arkansas is 2–3, but two of its three losses came against elite competition: Utah won 43–10 in Salt Lake City and Georgia won 45–17 in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks also enter off a 34–7 loss at Texas A&M, a score that creates an ideal buy-low opportunity for a home underdog that has been embarrassed and should be fully focused this week.

Tennessee has faced just one ranked opponent—the close loss to Texas—and now must travel to Fayetteville with a massive home matchup against Alabama waiting next week. That is a classic look-ahead spot: the Vols can still be the better team and win the game outright, but may lack the same urgency needed to separate by two touchdowns for four quarters.

Arkansas should be more capable offensively than it appeared against Georgia, Utah, and Texas A&M. The Razorbacks have played the nation’s 13th-toughest schedule to date, and Tennessee’s defense is not the same level of challenge as the units Arkansas faced in Utah and Georgia.

The key betting signal is the spread holding at Tennessee -13.5. Tennessee opened -13.5, yet the current market remains just below the critical two-touchdown number despite public interest leaning toward the Vols; books are not eager to offer Arkansas +14.

In college football, 14 is one of the most important margins because it represents two touchdowns. A line parked at 13.5 can indicate that respected money is supporting the underdog—or, at minimum, that sportsbooks are comfortable taking additional Tennessee tickets rather than moving to that key number.

Tennessee should ultimately win, but this sets up as a competitive SEC road game rather than a rout: Arkansas is playing at home, coming off an embarrassing loss, catching Tennessee in a potential look-ahead position, and receiving a number that has resisted a move to +14.

Take Arkansas +13.5.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

We’ve been underwhelmed by much of the Big XII thus far, Houston among those, as the Cougs have looked irresistible this season only against FCS foe Southern U. Certainly not last week vs. UCF, which had the Cougars on the ropes until well into the third quarter when Scott Frost temporarily ran low on QBs and was forced to use third-stringer Kaleb Annett - who couldn’t get the ball downfield - after starter Keyone Jenkins was temporarily KO’d following his disastrous interception deep in his own territory got Houston back into the game. It’s going to take a better effort than last week or the previous Saturday at Georgia Southern (both spread losses for the Cougars) to deal with a more-dangerous K-State squad that has had a week to lick its wounds after blowing a second-half lead at Cincinnati. Now it’s back to the Little Apple, where new head coach Collin Klein won all three for the ‘Cats in September, and where veteran dual-threat QB Avery Johnson (better than 300 yards per game total offense thus far) is more likely to fly, or perhaps run, which he did to the tune of 152 rushing yards the last time KSU played at Manhattan on September 19 vs. Tulane. The Willie Fritz defense must also now deal with a foe that will seriously opt for the overland route as the Cats’ smashmouth infantry is gaining better than 6.4 yards per carry while ranking 13th nationally at 241 yards per game, and probably do it better than a somewhat-disappointing Texas Tech a couple of weeks ago in Lubbock. Let’s also see if Houston can stand up a bit better against another quality QB after facing only one of those (Oregon State’s Braden Atkinson, in his first start, tossing for 376 yards) and another pair of so-so pilots (Georgia Southern’s ageless Max Johnson and Texas Tech’s rather limited Will Hammond) who burned the Cougs for over 550 combined pass yards in recent weeks.
Play Kansas State

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Florida has won five of the last six meetings in this SEC matchup, with the last one being a 41-39 road win at South Carolina in October 2023. Gamecocks' head coach Shane Beamer can't afford another heart-breaker like that, and frankly, we're not sure how many more losses he can take under any circumstances if he wants to stay in Columbia. South Carolina is off to an 0-3 start (both straight-up and against the spread) in SEC play after last week's 35-34 loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks jumped out to a 17-0 lead by the beginning of the second quarter, but the defense couldn't slow down Kentucky's offense after that. LaNorris Sellers ran for 147 yards in addition to his two touchdowns through the air. South Carolina's four games against FBS-level competition have all gone over the total. Florida is also licking its wounds after last week's 45-17 loss at Missouri. Just like the Gamecocks, all four of Florida's games against FBS-level competition have gone over the total. For the first time this season, the Gators' offense never got out of park. Jadan Baugh's Heisman campaign took a major hit after he was only able to generate 13 rushing yards on 12 attempts against the Tigers' defense. QB Aaron Philo failed to throw for 200 yards and he wasn't able to offer much on the ground, either. Even though Florida's offense struggled last week against Missouri, we see no reason to jump off the "over" train that each team is riding. The Gamecocks' defense was fired up and ready to go last week against Kentucky, forcing the Wildcats to punt on each of their first four possessions. As soon as Kentucky's offense started to make adjustments, South Carolina's defense had no answers. Big Blue scored on six of its last nine possessions. Beamer has floated the idea of benching Sellers, but after he produced 373 yards last week, the Gamecocks have bigger issues on the defensive side, not their veteran QB. Play the Over

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on PSU.

Surely a ranked USC team isn't gonna lose to a down in the dumps Penn State squad that already has two losses? Not so fast my friends. USC has looked downright awful, particularly on defense. Viral clips have surfaced of USC defenders giving two handed pushes in a half hearted attempt to direct opponents out of bounds instead of actually making a tackle. I am not sure that the Trojans are ready for all the smoke of a White Out at Beaver Stadium. Since 2012 USC is 2-10 straight up in games played in the Eastern Time Zone, and they failed to cover in both wins (Rugters & Purdue).

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Ball State (#379)

My clients and I cashed a ‘right side’ winner backing Northwestern at home last Friday Night in their dominating blowout win against Penn State.  Here’s an excerpt from that write-up:

“It’s pretty clear at this stage – Northwestern is a good notch or two better than the betting markets thought they would be.  There’s nothing fraudulent about the Wildcats 100% ATS start.  Their defense has been outstanding; senior transfer QB Aiden Chiles has avoided mistakes, and this long sluggish offense has both a solid OL and ‘playmaker’ talent.  I’m not convinced in the slightest that the betting markets have caught up to how good David Braun’s team is this year; a value laden team after nearly a decade of mediocrity.  Northwestern is opening their brand spankin’ new field on Friday Night in front of a national TV audience; a rare occasion where the Wildcats will legitimately have a strong homefield edge.”

That was then, this is now.  Northwestern just enjoyed the biggest win in recent program history.  Up next?  A very winnable Big 10 road game at Michigan State.  In between?  This matchup against a MAC school; as ‘flat’ as a flat spot can be.  The Wildcats are just 5-4 SU in their last nine vs the MAC (favored in all of them). The last time they played Ball State, they won by 5 as 19 point chalk.  This is simply too many points, even against the bottom feeder Cardinals!  Take Ball State.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Detroit Lions (ATS) | Good until -6.0.

Detroit hasn't looked incredible this season so far either. But, I'm still anticipating better results this year opposed to last year's non-playoff season. Detroit's offense is definitely good enough for it to go far this season. It's the defense which is lacking and that could change this weekend. Arizona lost by double digits to a backup QB NYG team. The Cards lost to the Niners in the week before. Go with Detroit.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

I successfully played against the Minutemen last week. I felt that they weren't as good as their 4-0 record and that they shouldn't be laying that many points against Eastern Michigan. Sure enough, the underdog Eagles smoked them 38-14. No longer undefeated, UMass is now arguably facing an even tougher opponent. The Redhawks are 0-2 on the road but those losses came at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and they nearly won the game against the Bearkats. The Redhawks are 4-0 the past four h2h meetings. This season, Miami has alternated wins and losses going L,W,L,W,L. Off last week's loss, look for the Hawks to bounce back and win their fifth straight in the series. *good at -3 or better

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

UNLV cashed us a nice ticket last week with their win over Cal, but the competition gets a lot more difficult this week as North Dakota State comes to town. The Bison dominated the past decade at the FCS level and have taken over the Mountain West in their first season after being bumped up to D1. NDSU is a perfect 5-0 on the season and off a 28-0 shutout over Wyoming. They play a physical brand of football and will control the trenches against a Rebels squad that has already been a disappointment with all of their preseason hype. Tim Polasek and his players know they have a legitimate chance to reach the College Football Playoff, and we can expect them to cover the short chalk on Saturday. Take North Dakota State.

DON'T MISS JIMMY'S 5% CFB TOP PLAY ON SATURDAY!

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago