Free Sports Predictions SEP 1: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

The knee-jerk reaction in this matchup is to back Kansas City because Randy Dobnak’s ERA looks strong on the surface. But when you dig a little deeper, there are reasons to be cautious. Over his last three starts, Dobnak has posted a 15-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which suggests his recent success may be more about favorable results than dominant command.

Kansas City has also struggled to respond after ugly losses. Since the start of the 2025 season, the Royals are just 1–10 following a defeat by eight runs or more.

Miami, meanwhile, has been strong in this type of interleague matchup, going 14–4 since 2025 when facing a starter with an ERA of 2.90 or better. With Kansas City in a poor bounce-back situation returning home from a road trip and Dobnak showing some underlying warning signs, Miami is the side I want to back.

TAKE MIAMI

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Wyoming enters Saturday’s Border War as an attractive road underdog against a Colorado State program undergoing major changes after a disastrous 2025 season. The Rams finished 2-10 overall last year (1-7 in Mountain West play) and were outscored by an average of 30.8 to 18.5 points per game. First-year head coach Jim Mora takes over a program that has enjoyed just one winning season in eight years and ranks 99th in the country in Returning Production. Even more concerning is the fact that the Rams enter the 2026-27 campaign with a Stability Score (metric developed by VSIN’s Steve Makinen) of just 3, which is telling because college football teams with a score of 0-6 are 173-217-4 ATS (44.4%) versus non-conference opponents with a higher Stability score during the first three weeks of the regular season, provided they are not favored by -30 or greater.

Wyoming’s program was revived by former head coach Craig Bohl, who retired in 2023 after leading the Cowboys to seven straight seasons at .500 or better. Jay Sawvel, the team’s defensive coordinator from 2019-22, was promoted to head coach and now enters with an improved offense led by William & Mary transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes, who followed offensive coordinator Christian Taylor to Laramie and already understands the system. The senior signal-caller accounted for 37 touchdowns throughout his four-year career and earned the starting job at William & Mary last fall, breaking out for 2,330 yards and 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. “Hughes separated himself with the overall command of everything from the minute he got here,” Sawvel said last Monday. “The command of the whole offense and the presence that he has to everything stood out. He’s put himself in a really good spot. I feel good with where he’s at, and I think the whole team does. ... He could be really, really good.”

Hughes will have a stronger supporting cast around him, with running back Samuel “Tote” Harris and receiver Justin Stevenson among the offensive pieces capable of producing more explosiveness in 2026. Jay Sawvel’s defense remains the foundation of the team and possesses enough experience and depth in the front seven to make the Rams earn everything offensively. Colorado State’s offense struggled to move the chains last season, scoring 21 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games and getting shut out by the Cowboys. Wyoming has also controlled the recent Border War, winning four of the last five meetings, including 28-0, 24-15, 14-13, and 31-17. Let’s also note that Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last five home openers.

Technically, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points are 842-688-28 ATS (55%), provided they have fewer than four wins on the season. These teams have been 480-379-12 ATS (55.9%) since 2017. Colorado State lost each of its final six games last season, which is relevant because college football teams that lost their final six games the previous season are just 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. Finally, the Cowboys apply to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS (87.5%) system that dates to 1989 and invests on certain unranked road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season in games with totals of 58 points or less. These live underdogs have covered the spread by an average of 12.8 points per game over the last two decades. With the better recent defense, greater program continuity, and a proven ability to dominate this matchup, take the points with the Wyoming Cowboys as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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(971) Chicago White Sox at (972) Houston Astros: F5 Moneyline

F5 Chicago White Sox -115 Sean Burke (RHP), Ronel Blanco (RHP) Must Start

First Five:

This is my favorite way to isolate the pitching mismatch. Chicago should have the better chance to lead after five before bullpen variables become significant.

The matchup I like most is Chicago’s right-handed bats against Blanco. His 7.71 ERA and recent minor-league struggles make him vulnerable early.

Sean Burke — 7–6, 3.32 ERA, 161 K, 1.15 WHIP. Has been solid all year.

Good bounce back spot for Chicago and a short price.

PLAY: White Sox F5 ML -115

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Off five straight wins, the Lions are red hot. They've also beaten the Alouettes five straight times. Montreal is favored for good reason though. The Als have been the best team in the league all season. They're 9-2 overall (+88 point differential) and a perfect 6-0 at home. The Lions are playing their second straight Eastern Conference road game and they're doing so on a short week. Off a rare loss, an angry Montreal team should bounce back with a win and cover.

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Milwaukee Brewers 116...(3%) - thru ML +110

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Take Georgia Tech (#146)

The Ramblin Wreck were able to win SU and ATS in Boulder last year despite a -3 turnover differential; outgaining Deion’s squad by +160 yards in the process.  I’m not expecting the rematch to be any closer, even with Georgia Tech breaking in a new QB and a new offensive coordinator.  The betting markets often overreact to offseason personnel losses; underestimating how prepared (and talented) their replacements will be.   The Buffs lost every road game by a TD or more last year (1-4 ATS in this role) and they’ve already suffered key injuries at WR and on the OL.  Laying less than a touchdown with the host is a legitimate pointspread bargain!  Take Georgia Tech.

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After beating up on Boston the previous couple of days, the Yankees were on the other end of a blowout in yesterday's opener against the Angels. They'll respond with a much better effort today. Admittedly, Grayson Rodriguez has been pitching much better recently. He's still got an ERA above six though and Cole is also in excellent form. He's been giving the Yankees a chance to win every time he takes the mound and is looking much more like his old self. Given Cole's 8-2 record and 2.48 ERA against the Angels and their edge in the bullpen, the Yankees should bounce back.

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971 Chicago White Sox at Houston

Nice price to fade Ronel Blanco and a worn out Astros bullpen. Other than the 2024 season where Blanco's results were much better than his advanced stats, he has not been a quality starting pitcher. In five starts this season his average Game Score is 39. Way below the league average of 50. In the last two days eight relievers have been used by the Astros, including two key arms working back to back days.

Chicago on the other hand has a well rested bullpen, along with the better starter.

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After enjoying a rest advantage for Monday's makeup game in Atlanta, San Francisco will be at a rest disadvantage Tuesday in Pittsburgh. Even with the rare off-day on Sunday, this will be the third different city the Giants have played in over the last four days. The Pirates had Monday off after taking two of three in St. Louis over the weekend.

In addition to being rested, the Pirates are also sending Paul Skenes to the bump. It was certainly an encouraging sign to see Skenes' velocity back up his last time out when tossed six shutout innings vs. San Diego. While the results have not been as good as expected for Skenes this season (in terms of wins and losses), he's now allowed 3 ER or fewer in seven of his last nine starts.

While the Giants may have won 7-3 in Atlanta yesterday, they are still 24th in scoring for the season at 4.11 runs per game. They are also just 24-45 on the road. So it looks like a pretty favorable matchup for Skenes, which is why he's being priced in this range (north of -150) for just the second time in the L7 starts (Pirates won the previous one). The Giants' starting pitcher for Tuesday is Logan Webb, who - for his career - has traditionally not been as good on the road as he's been at home. Last road start saw Webb allow five runs. The Pirates are #3 in scoring at home (5.35 rpg).

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Randy Dobnak OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-105) — Royals vs. Marlins

Randy Dobnak isn't someone we're normally looking toward for a strikeout prop, but 3.5 is a very manageable number in this matchup. He's already cleared it in four straight starts, recording 4, 6, 4 and 5 strikeouts. We don't need him to suddenly become a high-strikeout pitcher—we just need that recent production to continue.

The matchup with Miami is what really makes this attractive. The Marlins are averaging 11 strikeouts per game over their last three, and they're striking out in approximately 24% of their plate appearances against right-handed pitching. At that rate, the opportunities should be there for Dobnak.

The workload shouldn't be an issue either. Dobnak has thrown 90+ pitches in six consecutive starts, so he's consistently being given enough leash to work deep enough into games. On paper, he should only need to face somewhere around 20-23 batters to give himself a very realistic opportunity to record four strikeouts.

This isn't a play that requires Dobnak to do anything outside of what he's been doing recently. He's cleared this number four straight times, Miami is striking out at a high rate, and his pitch counts give him enough volume to get there.

At essentially even money, Randy Dobnak OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-105) is the play.

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The Dodgers have the clear overall statistical edge Tuesday, entering at 82-55 while owning substantial advantages over St. Louis in batting average (.258 to .240), on-base percentage (.335 to .315), and slugging percentage (.422 to .381). Los Angeles also possesses a superior pitching staff with a 3.62 ERA and 1.16 WHIP compared with the Cardinals’ 4.23 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. The Dodgers’ bullpen is 10th in ERA (3.90), 9th in xERA (3.77), and 4th in strikeouts per nine innings (9.74), whereas St. Louis relievers rank 24th in ERA (4.49), 25th in xERA (4.57), and 23rd in strikeouts per nine innings (8.07). The Dodgers rank first in baseball in both opponent batting average (.217) and fewest hits allowed (976), while St. Louis ranks just 27th in slugging percentage. The starting-pitching matchup is less convincing, as Eric Lauer owns a 4.78 ERA and has struggled historically against St. Louis, but his recent situational record provides reason for optimism. Lauer has earned the win in seven of his last eight evening appearances against teams with losing records and recorded at least four strikeouts in eight consecutive outings as a home favorite against National League Central opponents. Let’s also note that Lauer is 22-3 (88%; +52.1% ROI) in games with totals of greater than eight runs, winning by an average margin of 3.7 runs per game since May 24, 2025. Los Angeles has also won 10 consecutive night games against losing teams and is 176-80 (68.8%; +5.8% ROI) in home games with totals of nine or more runs.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, have dropped five of their last six games against National League opponents and have failed to cover the run line in seven straight Tuesday games against winning National League West teams. St. Louis’ limited power profile becomes even more problematic against a Dodgers staff that has been the league’s best at suppressing hits. With the stronger lineup, substantially better pitching metrics, home-field advantage, and several compelling situational trends, take the Los Angeles Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, September 1.

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KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

1) The OVER is 6-0 this season when Houston is at home after winning 4 of its last 5 games, going OVER by an average of 1.6 runs per game.

2) The OVER is 10-2 this season when Houston is at home after allowing 3 or fewer runs in 2 straight games, going OVER by an average of 2.1 runs per game.

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(977) Miami Marlins at (978) Kansas City Royals: Total

2% First Inning Under 0.5 (110) Tyler Phillips (RHP), Randy Dobnak (RHP) Must Start

Phillips is 2-0 & 10.5 NRFI with a 3.59 ERA

Dobnak is 3-0 & 7-1 NRFI with a 1.92 ERA

Miami is 4-0 NRFI & 11-1 NRFI away, failing to score in the first in all 12 road games.

Kansas City has scored a first inning run only once in their L6 home games

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We only have a few more weeks of chances to go against the Rockies, who must be feeling a bit snakebit at the moment after what looked like what was going to be a game-winning homer by jake McCarthy with two outs in the 9th inning last night instead turned into a game-saving robbery by the Birds’ Colton Cowser in Baltimore’s 2-1 win.

While Colorado keeps finding ways to lose (now five straight and ten of twelve; also 10 straight losses at Coors Field!), the O’s are finding ways to win, four straight and six of seven, now within a half-game of the last AL wild card shot. They take swings tonight vs. the Rocks' Gabriel Hughes, who posted a sky-high 10.03 ERA in five August starts. Play Orioles on Run Line

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This is a free play on LOU.

The Cardinals lost four games last year, two of those losses came in overtime and another came by a single point. The only game they lost by more than three points was on the road at SMU without their starting quarterback. Jeff Brohm will have a new quarterback in 2026, bringing in transfer Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State. Given coach Brohm's history of developing quarterbacks, the expectation is that Kienholz will be successful. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin, but they bring back the best quarterback and running back duo in the country. The Rebels were 11-1 in the regular season last year, and five of their first six games versus FBS teams were decided by one score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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The Phillies are on fire, winners of 5 straight 14 of their past 16 games as they make a push in the NL East. With the team clicking, they’ll send one of their best to the hill in Jesus Luzardo, who threw 7 shutout innings while allowing just 1 hit last time out. Luzardo has the 4^th most K’s in the league and has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 14 of his past 15 starts. The Phillies have also won the past 5 times he’s taken the mound. The Diamondbacks have plated just 3 runs over their past 2 games and are still dealing with the Ketel Marte drama, as he was booed in his return. We’ll ride the hot team as they pick up another win on Tuesday. Take the Phillies.

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FREE PICK on New York Yankees (ML) || Good until -195.

Pitching Matchup: Gerrit Cole/Grayson Rodriguez (Action).

The Yankees did lose yesterday's game. But, they should still feel good about inning this series with Cole/Schlittler on the mound today and tomorrow. There's no question that New York wants to catch Tampa for the top seed in the division. But, they must win today and get back on track to do so. Grayson Rodriguez has not had a good year. Look for the Yanks to jump all over him.

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San Diego starter Randy Vasquez projects to give up 3.2 runs with a 5.67 ERA and 1.54 WHIP.  Cincinnati’s lineup has hit a solid .333 (8-24) with a strong .905 OPS against Vasquez in his career.  The Reds will start Nick Lodolo.  The lefty projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.85 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers not projecting too well, expect the offenses to thrive resulting in a high-scoring game on Tuesday night.

Play OVER the total.

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(975) New York Mets at (976) Tampa Bay Rays: Moneyline

Tampa Bay Rays -124 Sean Manaea (LHP) Must Start

Tampa Bay’s home splits create a compelling case against New York Mets left-handed Pitcher Sean Manaea:

• 16-3 at home against left-handed starters this season

• 8-1 at home against lefties when facing teams below a .480 winning percentage

• 30-8 at home when priced between -100 and -150

  • 11-1 in that price range against left-handed pitchers

The only concern, Freddy Peralta was the starter the last time the Rays faced this situation, and the Rays left with a loss. Although now, it looks as though he has settled into his role as a starter for his new team.

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This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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(145) Colorado at (146) Georgia Tech: Spread

Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110)

Home-field advantage at Bobby Dodd is meaningful in a season opener.

Georgia Tech returns a more stable overall roster and has a strong rushing identity.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to lean heavily on their running game under new OC George Godsey.

Their defensive front could be the biggest matchup problem for Colorado

If Tech consistently gets 4–5 yards on first down, it can control possession and keep Colorado off the field. That makes Georgia Tech -6.5 considerably more attractive

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 31 Colorado 21

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Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

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This is a top 3 future bet for me. I think we see angry Bills team enter this season and obviously they have Super Bowl aspirations. This team is loaded with talent, is playing in a new Stadium, with a new coach and only has 1 team to beat in the AFC East. That is right, this division is a 2 horse race and I think we see the Pats regress. The Pats benefited from an easy schedule last year, surprised everyone and are not going to the same team as last year. The Bills have the best QB in the division, the best RB in the division and have upgraded their WR core and Oline. Their biggest issue was on defense (generating pressure) and now they have added Bradley Chubb to the mix. The bottom line here is I want an angry Josh Allen, coming off his 1st tough season in a while, in a division with only 1 other team to seriously worry about.

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For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

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This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.

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Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

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The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

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