Free Sports Predictions AUG 6: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

This is a short notice bout for both men after they were added to the card late in the process. That introduces extra variables into the equation yet still favors the more seasoned fighter overall. Miles Johns stands out as a solid wrestler who brings early explosiveness along with real power in his hands and in slamming takedowns. In early rounds he does well bouncing in and out of range while letting his hands and tucking takedowns behind combinations. His UFC record sits at 6-5 and consistency has definitely eluded him. After back-to-back wins he has dropped three straight. While Jessie Rosas is the older brother of UFC fighter Raul Rosas Jr. which likely played a role in how he reached the promotion quickly. From the available footage he shows serviceable striking paired with a solid ground game. The biggest gap between them lies in experience as Rosas has been facing bottom-tier opposition outside the UFC. The records of his last four opponents read 5-6, 9-17, 23-11 and 3-5. Three of those four do not even hold winning records on the regional circuit. Johns may have lost three in a row but those defeats came against Daniel Marcos, Jean Matsumoto and Felipe Lima. Any of those three would mop the floor Rosas. The primary path for Jessie involves getting the fight to the mat yet that looks unlikely against Johns. Miles owns the superior wrestling credentials and should be able to dictate the pace of the fight. He can defend takedowns while answering with heavy strikes that keep Rosas on the back foot and make entries far harder. Once the fight hits the floor Johns will find plenty of success working from top position and banking rounds. This marks a big step up in competition for Rosas while representing a step down for Johns relative to recent opposition. Rosas arrives on short notice for his UFC debut against the toughest opponent of his career. All of that points to Miles Johns securing the victory in a vet lesson.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Kansas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

Kansas has finished 5-7 in back-to-back seasons, and they've got a real shot to make it three in a row.

Does a two-time 5-win team suddenly find a sixth? I don't see where it comes from. The Jayhawks are hanging around the bowl bubble once again and falling just short. This year they've got a harder path with a downgrade at the position that matters most, quarterback.

Jalon Daniels is in the NFL after six years in Lawrence, and the job now belongs to Cole Ballard, a redshirt junior who arrived as a walk-on, worked his way up, and started two games back in 2023. His stat line: 108 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a QBR under 40. Even the reporting that has him winning the job frames him as the safe game-manager over higher-ceiling Isaiah Marshall.

This is a team that can’t finish close games. They stalled in the red zone and misfired in the two one-score losses that would've made them bowl eligible last season and now they're handing the keys to a game-manager with a sub-40 career QBR. That's not how a 5-7 team finds a sixth win.

Their schedule does them no favors. Five true road games, and Arizona State in London. We see how losing that “across the pond” game fared last season for my Wildcats. The middle of the year stacks three road games in four weeks, and they close with two of their last three away from Lawrence. LIU and Middle Tennessee,  two wins. After that, the road to a sixth runs through Missouri, the London trip, at Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU, at West Virginia, and home dates with Baylor, UCF, and a high caliber BYU. There are potentially two coin flips in that mix. 4-8 is the ceiling for the Jayhawks in 2026.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

If you want a longer shot further down the board to win the SEC, Oklahoma stands out.

With a healthy Jackson Arvidson, John Mateer and 16 returning starters, they'll be a prime contender in this conference. The schedule at first glance looks tough, with road games at Michigan, Georgia in September. But they get the Red River versus Texas coming off the bye week and middle of the pack SEC from there on out. I’ve always been told it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish in the SEC… Oklahoma very well could be playing in the championship game in Atlanta in December.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Penn State Over 9.5 +140

Bottom line… They have the softest draw in the conference, no Indiana, no Ohio State, no Oregon. This season's opponents went .407 in Big Ten play last year. They also have zero P4 non-conference games. This screams over and that’s the reason this is a free play as opposed to client play.

Yes, the market has already priced in the soft schedule and is asking you to trust Matt Campbell in his first season at State College, with a new DC, and a defensive line that lost roughly 80% of its production. Let's count the likely wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland, that's nine games where they'd be favored, several heavily. Small dog at Michigan, coin flips versus USC at home, a team that has faltered in the Eastern Time Zone and at Washington. Are they going to win the Big Ten? Probaly not, but can they win 10 games and possibly be playing in Indianapolis to end the season.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Last season I gave out Tech 100-1 on “Bet On It” as a crazy long shot to win the National Championship. This season, I’m doing the opposite.

This 10.5 win total was built around Brendan Sorsby, ESPN's No. 1-ranked transfer and a $5 million-plus signing instead the Red Raiders get Will Hammond, a redshirt sophomore with exactly two career starts, and the number is still priced for a proven eleven-win passer who isn't on the team anymore. Hammond tore his ACL last October and isn't expected to be cleared for full contact until around August 21st. He's been throwing in 7-on-7s, but he'll take his first live hits of the year in a game that counts, and McGuire has hedged the timeline all offseason with "week one, if not for sure week two." ACL returns aren't linear, and a dual-threat whose rushing was a real part of his value is now running behind a repaired knee. Any setback in camp, any cautious week, and the offense leans on Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis.

The schedule looks easy... With the toughest team they face being Houston or Arizona. The Sorsby saga made Texas Tech the sport's villain with every Big 12 opponent circling them. Letdown and revenge spots multiply for a team the whole conference wants to end. Eleven wins demands near-perfection from a first-year starter, in a league gunning for them, with almost nothing going wrong across four months. Ask a good-not-great quarterback to be flawless behind a rebuilt knee and the likeliest outcome is nine wins, not eleven.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

The Redblacks (0-7) are still searching for their first win. This is not the place to get it. The Riders (5-2) won at Edmonton last game, avenging a home loss from the previous week. Now, they can potentially be in first place in the West by the end of the week. For that to happen, they need to beat Ottawa and also need the Elks to lose at Montreal. They should hold up their part of the bargain. The Redblacks are getting outscored by an average of 11.6 points per game. They lost their last road game by 23. No letdown here. Riders take advantage of the favorable matchup and pull away for a double-digit victory.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago