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The Prez
NBA Basketball
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TORONTO ML vs LA LAKERS
This is the second game in a back-to-back for the Lakers, who must travel back after being blown out by Portland in Portland last night. They were without Luka but I believe he plays in this one while LeBron likely doesn't. Both teams are dealing with injuries but Toronto hasn't played since Friday night. They lost that game in overtime to the Clippers and haven't lost back to back games very often this season. They've done a great job of bouncing back and have more firepower available to them in this spot. It's not guaranteed that Luka plays which is even better for us. Take Toronto to get it done.
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8-2 TOTAL RUN - 15-6 ATS RECORD: 3 NFL BETS, 1 ATS BET SUN: $19.00
Simply put, Prez’ NFL ATS Bets are in the HALL OF FAME of bets. There is almost no bettor in any sport that has a more consistent long term and short term record of pure profit than Prez’ NFL ATS Bets.Prez is 2-2 in the Playoffs in ATS Bets and 15-6 on the entire season. 60% in 2 years of NFL ATS Bets and 72-47 (62%) ATS since Sept. 11, 2022. H ...
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Marco D'Angelo
NFL Football
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The Chicago Bears have trailed at halftime in five of their last six games, with the only exception coming against Cleveland. Over the past two months, the Rams have held an average halftime lead of 17–12, while Chicago has been on the opposite side — trailing by an average score of 12.1 to 8.7. Given those trends, I expect the Rams to once again control the first half in this match up.
TAKE THE RAMS -2.5 1st Half Wager
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4% NFL GAME OF WEEK #2 IN FB: $25.00
Marco split his 4% BEST BETS on Saturday and is coming right back with another Monster 4% Play. Today Marco is releasing his 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK. Marco is #2 in Money Won in College & Pro Football the L2 Years at WagerTalk. Get this play for $25 or Grab a 7 Day All Access Package and get every play Marco releases for 7 Days for just $69.� ...
#1 IN NBA L5 YRS - LATE NIGHT WINNER: $15.00
Marco split his 4% BEST BETS on Saturday and is coming right back with another Monster 4% Play. Today Marco is releasing his NBA LATE NIGHT WINNER. Marco is #1 in Money Won in the NBA the L2 Years at WagerTalk. Get this play for $15 or Grab a 7 Day All Access Package and get every play Marco releases for 7 Days for just $69. >>> 5% MAJOR ...
7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
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Drew Martin
NFL Football
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🔥 4-0 (100%) for (+20% PROFIT) All 5% picks.
16-4 (80%) for (+55% PROFIT) All 4/5% picks.
17-6 (74%) Overall for (43% PROFIT) since Christmas Eve.
84-56 (60%) Overall for (+98% PROFIT) last 140 client picks.
Wagertalk's #1 ranked overall handicapper the last 4 months.
Free Pick Recap: 3-0 (+3 units)
NFL- Seahawks (-7) WINNER
CBB- UNLV (-5.5) WINNER
CBB- Gonzaga (-16.5) WINNER
Talked about this bet on today's NFL Betting Show:
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5% EARLY SUNDAY NFL PLAYOFF #1 "MAX LIMIT" (100%) $$: $35.00
***PERFECT 4-0 (100%)*** All 5% picks. NEXT ONE HERE! MONEY! 16-4 (80%) for (+55% PROFIT) All 4/5% picks. Wagertalk's #1 ranked overall handicapper over the last 4 months. HOT! 17-6 (74%) Overall for (43% PROFIT) since Christmas Eve. Longterm, 84-56 (60%) Overall for (+98% PROFIT) last 140 client picks. This is a rare 5% NFL "Max Limit&qu ...
5% MONDAY "MAX LIMIT" CFB NAT'L CHAMPIONSHIP (8-0) $$: $35.00
***PERFECT 8-0 (100%)*** College football post season (+37% PROFIT). DO NOT MISS OUT! MONEY! 45-25 (64%) CFB Overall for over (65% PROFIT) since early September. Longterm, 82-55 (60%) Overall for (+98% PROFIT) last 132 client picks. This is a premium client 5% "Max Limit" package with detailed written analysis inside. The highest rated pi ...
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Ben Burns
NHL Hockey
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These days, Vancouver is where teams come to get healthy. The Canucks are winless in 2026. Since a victory on 12/29, they've gone 0-10. They've been blanked twice over their past five. Over their past six games, they've been outscored 28-6. They aren't the same team which defeated the Isles on 12/19.
While the Canucks may or may not be anxious to stop the bleeding, the Islanders should definitely motivated to avoid getting swept in the season series. This is the sixth leg of a 7-game road trip. They've been alternating wins and losses on the trip. Off a setback last game, they're 2-3 so far, hungry to bounce back. Including the Isles' 5-2 win here last season, the road team has won four straight meetings. Given the Canucks' current struggles, the price is fair.
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*5% MAX* DIV. RD. BEST OF BEST! (#1 NFL CAPPER) *6-0 RECORD!*: $35.00
#1 THIS SEASON | #1 LAST SEASON | #1 SINCE 2002 | PERFECT 6-0 SINCE CHRISTMAS! Defending/Reigning Champion Ben Burns is now a PERFECT 6-0 in the NFL since Christmas. His 5% play in the WC Rd was a never in doubt winner. Since September, Ben is 40-18 (+70.89), which is the #1 NFL record.Better still, Burns has the #1 NFL record since late 2022, the ...
CBB SWEET SPOT (#1 RECORD THIS SEASON) *42-13 RECORD!*: $25.00
#1 THIS SEASON | #1 OF ALL-TIME | 42-13 RUN | +340 UNITS PROFIT!| Off his Saturday afternoon winner with Texas State, College Hoops Champion Ben Burns is a FANTASTIC 42-13 (+95.6) his last 55 CBB selections. That's a 50.1% ROI! Going back further finds that Ben's basketball has produced an incredible +340 units in profit. Here's hi ...
**5% SUPER MAX** CFB BEST OF BEST (INCREDIBLE 14-1 L10 YEARS!): $35.00
#1 FOOTBALL RECORD SINCE 2023 | #1 FOOTBALL RECORD SINCE 2024 | 14-1 RECORD L10 YEARS!When there's one game left in the football season, you want Ben Burns on your side!Early in his career, Ben famously delivered 10 straight Super Bowl winners. His current CFB title game streak rivals that legendary run.Off last year's winner, Ben is an A ...
Andy Lang
NFL Football
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Kyren Williams OVER 62.5 Rushing Yards
Kyren Williams gets a strong setup here with cold conditions expected in Chicago, which should push the Rams toward a heavier, more conservative rushing approach. This number has been very profitable all season, cashing in 13 of 18 games, and the matchup lines up perfectly again. Chicago ranks 27th in rush defense, allowing 132.6 rushing yards per game, and they’ve consistently struggled to hold up at the point of attack. With weather, matchup, and season-long usage all pointing the same direction, Williams should see enough volume to get comfortably over this total.
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NFL 4% Best Bet…Best Bets ON FIRE: $25.00
We’re rolling on our NFL Best Bets, sitting on a 5-2 run and coming off another easy cash yesterday. The reads are sharp, the numbers line up, and we’re dialed in again today with a 4% position that stands out from the rest of the board. This is the kind of spot we wait for — disciplined, selective, and built to cash.
5% UFC BEST BET...HAMMER TIME: $35.00
We Have To Fire Early On This One. 60% on UFC 5% Best Bets Last Year- This is one of those spots you don’t wait on. Our UFC 5% Best Bets hit at a 60% clip last year, and this matchup lines up the same way — clear edge, clean number, and value that won’t last. We’ve already fired on this play ourselves, and the goal is simple: get it in befo ...
Your Cricket Paycheck…Monday Morning SPECIAL!!! : $12.50
2 Straight Winners | This Is a Smash Spot- We’re starting the week the right way with another early-morning Cricket Paycheck. Coming off two straight winners, this matchup stands out clearly as a smash spot the books haven’t adjusted to yet. This is exactly the type of edge we wait for in cricket — strong favorite, clear advantage, and a numb ...
Dwayne Bryant
College Basketball
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My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom, historical data from similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value I perceive, and how confident I am in the play.
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80% ANGLE | 4% CBB PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne is #2 ALL-TIME in college hoops profit at WagerTalk. On Sunday, DB, fresh off last night's winner on St. John's, has another 4% CBB side play ready to cash. This is Dwayne's only college hoops play today, and it's backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 80% winners (16 wins, only 4 losses) since the 2 ...
78% ANGLE | 4% NFL PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne has one play on Sunday's NFL playoffs. This huge play is backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 78% winners (35 wins, only 10 losses) since the 2021 season. Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
70% ANGLE | 4% NBA PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne has only one NBA play on Sunday. This huge NBA wager is backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 70% winners since the 2022 season. Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play AGAINST January double-digit favorites that have gone under the total by at least 42 total points in their last 7 games. Active AGAINST Houston.
16-6 ATS (73%) since the 2023 season, covering the spread by an average of 7.2 points!
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80% ANGLE | 4% CBB PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne is #2 ALL-TIME in college hoops profit at WagerTalk. On Sunday, DB, fresh off last night's winner on St. John's, has another 4% CBB side play ready to cash. This is Dwayne's only college hoops play today, and it's backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 80% winners (16 wins, only 4 losses) since the 2 ...
78% ANGLE | 4% NFL PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne has one play on Sunday's NFL playoffs. This huge play is backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 78% winners (35 wins, only 10 losses) since the 2021 season. Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
70% ANGLE | 4% NBA PLAY OF THE DAY: $25.00
Dwayne has only one NBA play on Sunday. This huge NBA wager is backed by a situational angle that has cashed a money-making 70% winners since the 2022 season. Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
Gianni the Greek
NFL Football
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Kyren Williams Rushing Yards Over 59.5 (-114)...(3%)
3% thru Over 59.5 (-130)
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SUN NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS w/ 5% BIG MOVE: $39.00
#1 PROFIT WINNER OVERALL in 2025 NFL Reg SeasonWINNING +75.41 Units / +7.5% ROI / "303" Premiums#1 PROFIT WINNER in 2025-26 on NFL 4% BEST BETS WINNING 77.22 Units / +12.9% ROI / "167" Best Bets SUN NFL PLAYOFFS PASS : w/ 5% BIG MOVE - Only $39Includes SIDE + TOTAL for BOTH PLAYOFF GAMES -
CFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP : SIDE + TOTAL + PROPS: $29.00
#1 PROFIT WINNER in 2025-26 CFB Season OverallWINNING +91.97 Units / 7.1% ROI / 400+ Premiums#1 PROFIT WINNER in CFB OVERALL the L/365 DaysWINNING +108.17 Units / 7.6% ROI / 460+ PremiumsCFB NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP PASS - Only $29w/ 4% SIDE + 4% TOTAL + PROPS Coming -
UFC 324 PASS : w/ 5% BIG MOVE: $39.00
Gianni was MONEY on 5% BIG MOVES in 2025WINNING 41+ Units of PROFIT w/ +15.7% ROI UNLOADING "1st" MMA 5% for 2026 on SAT -WON MONEY in MMA in 4 of L/6 Years OverallFinishing #1 or #2 in MMA PROFIT Overall :UFC 324 PASS : w/ 5% BIG MOVES - Only $39
Steve Merril
NBA Basketball
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Portland hits the road off a 132-116 home win over a beat-up Lakers team last night. The Blazers shot 52% (45-86) from the field, and they also made 16 three’s. Now on a back-to-back set, there’s reason to expect some regression. Sacramento is playing good basketball right now; the Kings have won and covered 4 straight games. This will also be their 5th consecutive home game, so they own a nice scheduling advantage as well. Lay the short price with the home team in this game on Sunday night.
Play KINGS (-).
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NFL Playoffs - 95% (21-1 ATS) Angle: $25.00
Steve Merril is #1 ranked NFL Best Bet profit L365 days, and his long-term winning run continues with a BEST BET side play in the NFL Playoffs for Sunday that is backed by an AWESOME 95% (21-1 ATS) angle that has been cashing tickets over the last 20+ years! Get this EASY TV WINNER right now - Guaranteed Side that will CRUSH YOUR BOOK!Special Off ...
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Sunday NFL Playoffs Smash : $25.00
97% (28-1 ATS) AngleSteve Merril is #1 ranked NFL Best Bet profit L365 days, and his long-term winning run continues with a BEST BET side play in the NFL Playoffs for Sunday that is backed by an AWESOME 97% (28-1 ATS) angle that has been cashing tickets over the last 20+ years! Get this EASY TV WINNER right now - Guaranteed Side that will CASH IN ...
Bryan Power
NFL Football
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This number is too low. Even in a terrible game last week vs. the Steelers, Stroud passed for 250 yards. He's gone Over this number in 8 of the last 11 games, excluding the one where he got hurt, and one of the exceptions was the regular season finale where he was pulled early.
With the Patriots ability to take away the run game (just 3.8 yards per carry allowed), Stroud is going to need to make plays with his arm Sunday in Foxboro. Clearing this relatively meager passing yardage prop should not be all that difficult.
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*****5% NFL SUNDAY MAX BET*****: $35.00
***5% NFL MAX BET FOR SUNDAY*** >>> Bryan Power is ready with his TOP Play in the Divisional Round! While last week's 5% on Green Bay ended up being "heartbreak hotel," Power rarely misses twice in a row. In fact, he's cashed 67% of his NFL MAX BETS going back to November 2023! There's also still time to get the ne ...
SUNDAY ALL ACCESS (INCLUDING 5% NFL MAX BET!) : $39.00
***THREE PLAYS FOR SUNDAY INCLUDING A 5% MAX BET IN THE NFL!!*** Plus, get Bryan Power's OTHER NFL Divisional Round selection for Sunday!An NBA play is included here as well! Right now, BP is on a SIZZLING 25-8 RUN in "the Association!" He has the #1 NBA win percentage at WT going back to last year's Playoffs!Want MORE? Get 7 da ...
7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
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For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to your favorite handicapper.You’ll receive every play, in every sport they release, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.Whether you’re bettin ...
Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(551) New Orleans Pelicans at (552) Houston Rockets: Spread
Houston Rockets -13.5 (-105)
New Orleans Pelicans :
Severe Recent Slump: Since December 23rd, the Pelicans have a dismal 2-12 straight-up record and a 3-11 ATS record. This indicates a team in significant decline and consistently failing to meet market expectations.
Abysmal Underdog Performance: Their two wins during this period came as favorites. This means that as an underdog, the Pelicans are an alarming 1-11 ATS, including 8 straight ATS losses. This is an incredibly strong trend to fade New Orleans whenever they are given points.
Opponent:
Positive Home Favorite Trend: The second system describes a scenario for a home favorite: "When both teams have one day of rest and playing a 3rd game in 4 days, a Home favorite of -3.5 plus off a home win facing a team off an away loss are 28-20-1 (58.3%) ATS."8.3%)
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NBA PLAY OF DAY - 89% RUN!: $25.00
ALL TOTALS PLAYS 8-1 (89%)! NBA RUN STANDS AT 12-4 (75%)!Jeff is off a 2-0 Saturday and is now on a 10-3 (77%) all sports run with 69% winning days since January 1 (11 of 16 profitable days)!Jeff's NBA run stands at 12-4 (75%) with NBA totals going 5-1 (86%) and 30-15 (67%)!Jeff has cashed 8 of 9 totals plays overall and this play will get him ...
7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
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For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to your favorite handicapper.You’ll receive every play, in every sport they release, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.Whether you’re bettin ...
Full-Court All-Access Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every basketball play from Jeff Michaels for three full days — including NBA and College Basketball selections and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49.That’s only $16.33 per day for every premium hoops play your handicapper releases. You’ll also receive instant access the moment plays are posted, giving you the ...
Will Rogers
NBA Basketball
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The New Orleans Pelicans took the season's initial matchup in overtime on their home court. However, expect the outcome to flip this time around.The Houston Rockets snapped their skid on Friday with a solid 110-105 victory over the Timberwolves, showcasing a resurgence in elite defense and boosting their confidence. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are struggling badly—their recent defeat in Indiana pushed their road record to a dismal 3-16 away from home.
In that game against the Pacers, New Orleans gave up 66 points in the paint and finished with a -19 margin in shot attempts. They're also mired in a rough 2-12 stretch over their last 14 games overall.When the Rockets last hosted the Pelicans, they dominated with a 29-point win. The prior matchup in Houston was another convincing 20-point victory for the home team. This one looks headed for a similar rout—expect Houston to win big. Valid to -15
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5% SUN MAX ULTIMATE! (81% YTD RECORD) *#1 NFL RECORD!*: $35.00
Will Rogers stands alone as the #1 BIG GAME NFL HANDICAPPER. He's 13-3 (+48.75) with all NFL (5%) selections. That's the #1 (5%) record this season. It also ranks #1 all the way since the start of 2023.Will's 81.3% winning percentage has produced a 60.9% return on investment. Buffalo got a little close for comfort last week but if yo ...
7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
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Hat-Trick All-Access Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every hockey play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — including NHL selections, College Hockey, and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49.That’s only $16.33 per day for every premium hockey release your handicapper posts. You’ll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you ge ...
Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
For a limited time, get a 7-Day All-Access Pass for just $69, the same price as a 3-Day pass. That breaks down to less than $10 per day for full access to Tokyo Brandon . You will receive every play, in every sport he releases, for a full week, including any Top Rated 5% Best Bets, which normally sell for $35 each.
This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount.
These long-term numbers say it all:
2024: #1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)
2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)
2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)
2025: #4 All-Sports Profit (+49 units)
__________
Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
2025 Season Finish | 79 wins, 83 losses (3rd in NL East) |
Key Player Acquisitions (11/1/2025 - 1/17/2026) | - Osvaldo Bido (RHP, claimed off waivers from Rays, 1/16/26) - Multiple minor league signings (1/15/26): OF Carlos De Los Santos, SS Bernardo Doc, LHP Onardi Santos, INF Maikel Acosta, INF Santiago Solarte, INF Ronny Muñoz, INF/OF Jordani Peguero, INF/OF Michael De La Cruz, INF/OF Enyer Antonio, C Eliecer Mendoza, C Daniel Pire, C Yendi Pirela, C Francisco Del Campo, RHP Eliezer Peralta, RHP Evan Da Souza, RHP Justin Batista, RHP Jose Rosal, RHP Yerison Mendez, OF Jose Camacho, OF Raunny Figueredo, OF Ronald Rodriguez - Dillon Lewis (OF, trade from Yankees, 1/13/26) - Brendan Jones (OF, trade from Yankees, 1/13/26) - Dylan Jasso (INF, trade from Yankees, 1/13/26) - Juan Matheus (INF, trade from Yankees, 1/13/26) - Jesus Tinoco (RP, minor league contract, 1/11/26) - Daniel Johnson (CF, minor league contract, 1/11/26) - Owen Caissie (OF, trade from Cubs, 1/7/26) - Cristian Hernandez (SS, trade from Cubs, 1/7/26) - Edgardo De Leon (INF, trade from Cubs, 1/7/26) - Kade Bragg (LHP, trade from Twins, 1/2/26) - Esteury Ruiz (OF, trade from Dodgers, 12/29/25) - Pete Fairbanks (RP, free agent signing, 1 yr/$13M, 12/24/25) - Christopher Morel (OF/3B, free agent signing, 12/12/25) - Tyler Zuber (RHP, free agent minor league contract, 11/28/25) |
Key Player Losses (11/1/2025 - 1/17/2026) | - Ryan Weathers (LHP, traded to Yankees, 1/13/26) - Edward Cabrera (RHP, traded to Cubs, 1/7/26) - Eric Wagaman (1B, traded to Twins, 1/2/26) - Adriano Marrero (RHP, traded to Dodgers, 12/29/25) |
Projected 2026 Wins | 78 wins |
The primary pros for betting the Over 73.5 wins on the Miami Marlins for the 2026 season center on their clear upward trajectory and strategic offseason enhancements. Coming off a solid 79-83 finish in 2025—their best record in recent years and a significant improvement that included a strong second half and flirtation with relevance—the team demonstrated growing competitiveness, particularly with young talent stepping up in areas like the infield, outfield, and pitching depth. I have confidence in the rotation's stability and competence as most projected starters (even depth options) are expected to post ERAs better than 4.50, supporting a reliable pitching foundation despite some trades.
Offseason moves further bolster the case: the Marlins added impactful pieces like closer Pete Fairbanks (a one-year, $13M signing for bullpen stability), outfielder Christopher Morel (power and versatility), promising young outfielders Owen Caissie (via trade from Cubs) and Esteury Ruiz (from Dodgers), and a haul of prospects/infielders/outfielders from deals involving Ryan Weathers (to Yankees) and Edward Cabrera (to Cubs). These acquisitions address offensive gaps (especially power and depth up the middle) while the losses were primarily of controllable pitchers traded for youth and future upside, aligning with a build-without-blocking-talent approach.
Projections and analyses suggest the Marlins could push toward or above .500 (around 78-82 wins), well clear of 73.5, especially if key youngsters like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Otto Lopez, and others continue progressing or break out further. The line appears undervalued given their 2025 baseline and roster upgrades, making the over a value play with momentum on their side in a division where not every team is peaking.
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2026 NPB Japanese Baseball Preview - FREE DOWNLOAD!
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NPB 2026 PREVIEW by Tokyo Brandon ( Free plays available at wt.buzz/tb )X @Tokyo BrandonTikTok @tokyobrandonofficialInstagram @tokyobrandonPacific LeagueEvery team 2025 record and outcomeTeam by team breakdownOffense rankingsStarting rotation rankingsBullpen rankings2026 Pacific league top 5 offensive and pitching leader projections Central Le ...
Unlock Yankees 2026 Insider Preview PDF – Just $2! Ex-MLB Scout & #1 Profit Capper
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Former MLB scout Tokyo Brandon spent 10 years evaluating talent for a Major League team. He’s also WagerTalk’s #1 all-sports profit capper in multiple years—including #1 in MLB profit in 2024 with massive units won. Don’t enter 2026 blindly—grab his exclusive New York Yankees 2026 Preview PDF for just $2 (less than a coffee!). Inside you ...
#1 MLB Profit 2024 Handicapper's Season Wins Total Pick – Only $15! : $15.00
Tokyo Brandon stands as one of WagerTalk's most elite and consistent performers — the #1 all-sports profit leader in 3 of the last 5 years among 33 top handicappers. His rock-solid, year-over-year track record proves he's no flash in the pan:2024: #1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)2022: #1 All-Sports ...
Tokyo Brandon
College Basketball
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➤➤ FREE DOWNLOAD - Japanese Baseball Preview, click ❖Tokyo Brandon
➤➤ MLB Team Wins total future bet is available (from DraftKings) also just click ❖Tokyo Brandon
Arizona State | Houston | |
Points per game | 83.5 | 72.5 |
Points allowed per game | 93 | 57 |
Top two leading scorers | Maurice Odum (16.8 PPG), Massamba Diop (14.7 PPG) | Emanuel Sharp (15.9 PPG), Kingston Flemings (15.4 PPG) |
Assist leaders | Maurice Odum (6.5 APG) | Kingston Flemings (5.2 APG) |
Top two rebound leaders | Santiago Trouet (5.8 RPG), Massamba Diop (5.6 RPG) | Chris Cenac Jr. (7.6 RPG), Joseph Tugler (5.8 RPG) |
Injuries | Marcus Adams Jr. (Out - Undisclosed), Adante' Holiman (Out - Elbow), VJ Wallace (Out - Ankle) | Kordel Jefferson (Out - Knee, season), Bryce Jackson (Out) |
Score prediction:
Houston 79, Arizona State 61
Breakdown of the spread:
Houston is favored by 16.5 points. The Cougars have been dominant in January, winning by an average margin of 15.5 points, with strong defensive performances. Arizona State has struggled, losing three of four January games by an average of 10.7 points, and their high points allowed (93 PPG) plays into Houston's strengths. At home in Fertitta Center, Houston should pull away in the second half for a comfortable win, covering the -16.5 spread.
Trends:
Houston is on a 10-game winning streak, including 4-0 in January with wins by margins of 7, 4, 22, and 29 points. They start strong (averaging 33 points in first halves in January home games) but have shown tendencies to rally if behind early, as seen in close first halves against Texas Tech (tied at halftime) before pulling away. Home patterns show solid defense, allowing under 60 points in recent games, and they cover the spread in 50% of home games this season. Game totals have gone under in all four January games, aligning with the 146.5 O/U today. Halftime totals average around 66 combined points in their January games.
Arizona State is 1-4 in their last 5 games, with a 4-game losing streak snapped by a narrow win over Kansas State before losing again. They have cold spots in away games, covering the spread in only 1 of their last 4 road contests, and tend to fade in the second half (allowing 51+ points in second halves of January losses). Home/away patterns: 1-3 in January (0-2 away), with losing margins of 6, 28, and 7 points in losses. Game totals have gone over in their last 6 games, but today's O/U of 146.5 may buck that trend against Houston's defense. Halftime losing margins average 12 points in away losses; they start cold on the road but attempt late rallies when behind. Compared to odds: Arizona State's over trend contrasts Houston's under streak, suggesting the under is likely; their poor away defense supports Houston covering -16.5.
Player matchup breakdowns:
Guards: Maurice Odum (ASU, 16.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) vs. Kingston Flemings (Houston, 15.4 PPG, 5.2 APG). Odum is Arizona State's playmaker, capable of high-scoring games (23 points vs. Arizona), but he'll face pressure from Flemings, who excels in transition and ball distribution. Advantage: Flemings, as Houston's defensive scheme limits opposing guards to low efficiency.
Wings/Forwards: Emanuel Sharp (Houston, 15.9 PPG) vs. Santiago Trouet (ASU, 5.8 RPG). Sharp's scoring versatility from outside could exploit Trouet's rebounding focus, but Trouet may struggle offensively against Houston's athletic forwards. Advantage: Sharp, given his recent 17-point outings and Houston's perimeter defense.
Bigs: Massamba Diop (ASU, 14.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG) vs. Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston, 7.6 RPG). Diop brings scoring inside (16 points vs. Arizona), but Cenac's rebounding dominance and Houston's paint protection (low opponent FG% inside) will challenge him. Advantage: Cenac, as Houston bigs have held opponents under 60 points recently.
Bench/Depth: Arizona State's injuries (Adams, Holiman out) limit rotation to 7-8 players, while Houston's depth (five in double figures vs. Baylor) allows fresh legs. Advantage: Houston, especially in the second half where they rally or extend leads.
Arizona State kept the game close against rival Arizona on the road, do you still think Houston beats them by 17?
I was waiting for that question. Yes, I still think Houston covers -16.5 and wins by around 17 or more. Arizona State showed real fight leading 39-38 at halftime, stayed competitive deep into the second half (cut it to 4 points late with runs like 6-0 and a 3-pointer to get within striking distance), and only lost 89-82 after Arizona pulled away with better second-half execution, rebounding (39-28 edge), and free throws. Maurice Odum had 23 points (including a late 3-point play), Massamba Diop scored 16 efficiently inside, and they forced a physical, gritty game with low turnovers early (just 1 in the first half) and solid perimeter shooting to counter Arizona's paint dominance. That said, this doesn't drastically change my view on the Houston matchup for a few key reasons:
Houston's defense is elite and disruptive in a different way — ASU allowed 89 points to Arizona (a high-powered offense), but Houston has been holding teams to around 57 PPG in January games. Their pressure, length, and paint protection (led by guys like Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler) should limit ASU's inside scoring from Diop and force more contested perimeter shots. ASU's road defense has still been vulnerable overall this season.
Pace and style mismatch — The ASU-Arizona game was a rivalry slugfest with physicality and some foul trouble issues for ASU (Diop picked up his 4th foul midway through the second half). Houston plays slower, more controlled, and suffocating — they dictate tempo at home in Fertitta Center (9-0 home record, strong in recent games). ASU's offense (which relies on transition and perimeter play) could get bogged down, leading to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring output than against Arizona.
Recent form contrast — Houston remains on a long win streak (16-1 overall per latest lines), dominant at home, and has covered in blowout fashion against lesser offenses. ASU is 10-7 (1-3 in Big 12 per reports), and while the Arizona game was their best effort recently, it was still a loss on the road against a top team — their road struggles persist (e.g., larger margins in other January losses).
Spread context — The line is still Houston -16.5 (with O/U around 146.5). ASU kept it "close" against Arizona (7-point final margin), but that was in a high-total game (171 combined points). Against Houston's defense, expect a lower total and more separation as the Cougars pull away in the second half (their pattern: strong finishes, rallying if needed, but often building leads at home).
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Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos are established elite doubles players, both ranked inside the top tier globally, and this matchup is a massive class gap. Sebastian Baez and Francisco Comesana are essentially a thrown-together singles pairing with no doubles pedigree. They are unranked as a team, have lost their last five matches together, and have only one win as a pairing overall. They lack chemistry, structure, and experience, which is exactly what gets exposed against a disciplined, high-level doubles team like Granollers and Zeballos. Everything points to a routine straight-sets outcome.
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This is a free play on HOU.
While the Patriots won and covered last week versus the Chargers, they only scored 16 points. It won't get any easier against the NFL's top ranked defense of the Texans. A road game in bad weather? Been there done that for the Texans who won by 24 points at Pittsburgh last week. The Patriots stats may be a bit skewed by the fact that they played the weakest schedule of any team in the NFL. I do believe the Pats should be favored here at home, but I would make the line -2.5 rather than 3.5.
GL,
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