Free Sports Predictions SEP 16: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Play: Washington +4.5

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Washington held the ball for 33:20 and had twice as many first downs as Philadelphia... and lost but got the cover.  A healthy Jayden Daniels went 18-of-34 for 164 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

We were on the Giants on Sunday night. Dallas never led in New Jersey. Not once. They held the ball for 23:20, ran it 18 times for 69 yards, and gave up 394 yards and 165 on the ground with zero sacks and zero takeaways. That is the same defense that allowed 511 points last season, the most in the league, and it is now down its signal caller. DeMarvion Overshown, Malik Hooker both added to the IR. Marist Liufau is already out. Their Pro Bowl left guard is gone too. Tyler Smith is on injured reserve and cannot come back before Week 5, with T.J. Bass making the starts. Dorance Armstrong comes off his suspension for this one.

Give me the Commanders and the points.

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This is a free play on HOU.

Lets not overreact to the Bengals winning and the Texans losing in Week 1. Cincinnati heads out on the road traveling to Houston. The Texan's #1 ranked defense couldn't stop Joe Burrow, but I don't think it's wise to assume Joe Burrow and the Bengals can easily replicate that success. CJ Stroud finally has some weapons on offense, with a healthy receiving corps and a pair of capable running backs. He's thrown 12 TD passes and just 1 pick at home since the beginning of last season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

La Liga - Racing Santander at Barcelona FC

Game Thoughts: While this is a big number for a team total it's justifiable as Barcelona have looked unstoppable this season. They are a perfect 6-0 in domestic league and champions league play with 26 goals scored and in 4 of the games they've score 5. Their only game with less than 4 goals scored was a game against a normally defensively tough Atletico Bilbao, winning that 2-0. They get a Santander team returning to the top league for the first time since 2011 and it's likely to be a rude awakening on Wednesday. The betting markets for correct scores have the two lowest paying numbers at 4-0 and 5-0 results for the home side and we agree.

The play is Barcelona FC Team Total Over 3.5 -177

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(905) Milwaukee Brewers at (906) Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline

Pittsburgh Pirates 110 Action

The strongest argument for Pittsburgh isn’t that they’re the better team—it’s +110 price + home field + Jones’ strikeout ability + Milwaukee having already clinched the division. Always one of my favorite angles after a team clinches to fade them.

Play: Pirates +110

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Andrew Abbott has been in terrible form over his last 4 starts while recording a 12.00 ERA/2.07 WHIP and he allowed an alarmingly high 6 home runs during only 15-innings pitched. The Cincinnati bullpen has a horrible 8.78 ERA/1.73 WHIP and allowed 7 home runs in 26 2/3 innings pitched throughout their previous 6 games. The Reds offense has been anemic over their last 6 outings while averaging a mere 2.5 runs scored per game with a .191 team batting average.

Blake Snell has been superb since returning the Dodgers after a prolonged stay on the injury list. Throughout his previous 6 starts Snell has posted a terrific 1.04 ERA/0.95 WHIP and struck out 46 batters in 34 2/3 innings pitched. The current Reds active roster has gone a brutal 3-for-30 (.100 BA) lifetime when facing Snell. The Dodgers are 5-0 versus the Reds this season and 4 of those wins came by 3 runs or more.

Bet the Dodgers -1.5 on the run line at odds of -135 or lower.

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Adding breakdown Thursday...

Play: Marlon Vera +190

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JETS +3.5

I know Green Bay is the more highly regarded team, but I really like the Jets getting +3.5 at home against the Packers.

The first thing I love about this number is the 3.5. If this game comes down to one possession, the Jets have a lot of ways to cover. A 27-24 Packers win, a 24-21 Packers win or even a Jets outright victory all cash this ticket.

Green Bay is laying 3.5 despite going just 6-11 against the spread last season, including only 2-6 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or more. That's a pretty important historical warning sign when we're being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Packers.

The Jets also come into this game with confidence after beating Tennessee 23-10 in Week 1. They controlled the game defensively and did enough offensively to win comfortably. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Week 1 performance wasn't enough to justify treating them as a team that should automatically be laying more than a field goal on the road.

And this is a home game for New York. That's significant when we're taking +3.5. The Jets don't need to dominate Green Bay — they need to stay competitive for four quarters, and playing at home gives them a better environment to do exactly that.

I also don't think we should overlook the way the Jets' defense performed in Week 1. They held Tennessee to just 10 points, and if they can create another game where the opposing offense has to consistently earn every yard, that makes +3.5 extremely valuable.

There is one legitimate concern: New York will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is expected to miss at least one week after suffering a groin injury. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. is also expected to miss time.

But at +3.5, I don't need the Jets to be the better team overall. I need them to make this a competitive game, and I believe they're capable of doing that.

MY PLAY: JETS +3.5.

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The Dodgers have a substantial starting-pitching advantage, with Blake Snell carrying a 4-1 record, a 1.91 ERA, and 51 strikeouts heading into Wednesday’s matchup. Snell has been especially effective in this matchup, going 3-0 in his last five appearances against Cincinnati, while Los Angeles has won seven of his last eight starts against National League opponents. Cincinnati counters with Andrew Abbott, who has struggled to a 6-11 record and 4.78 ERA, including a 3-5 mark at home. That creates a favorable setup for a deep Dodgers lineup featuring Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages. Los Angeles has also dominated this matchup recently, winning 10 consecutive games against Cincinnati and covering the run line in nine of those 10.

Cincinnati enters Wednesday having lost seven of its last eight games, including Tuesday’s 4-0 shutout loss to Los Angeles. The Reds have also dropped seven straight night games against winning teams and have trailed after three innings in six consecutive games, giving the Dodgers a strong early-game profile. The statistical matchup strongly favors Snell against a Reds offense that ranks last in MLB with 1,148 hits and a .229 batting average, while the Dodgers rank first in opponent batting average (.219) and hits allowed (1,089). Meanwhile, Abbott must navigate a powerful Los Angeles lineup while carrying an ERA nearly three runs higher than Snell’s.

Technician’s Corner

The technical profile strongly supports Los Angeles. The Dodgers are currently around -210 to -218 with a total of 8.5, so the systems below are active.

• 2,795-1,068 (72.4%) | +$19,427 - Favorites greater than -200 in games with totals of 8+ runs have won at a 72.4% rate since 2006;

• 2,428-968 (71.5%) | +$18,282 - Favorites of -194 or greater with totals above 8 have cashed 71.5% since 2009;

• 818-354 (69.8%) - Road favorites of -200 or greater have won 69.8% since 2006;

• 566-215 (72.5%) | +$5,954 | 3.2% ROI - Winning teams above .500 installed as road favorites greater than -200 have gone 566-215, a 72.5% win rate;

• 219-140 (61.0%) | +$1,078 - September road favorites whose starting pitcher owns an ERA below 2.75 are 61.0% when the total is below 9. Blake Snell enters with a 1.91 ERA, and Wednesday's total is 8.5.

With the superior starting pitcher, stronger lineup, dominant recent head-to-head history and Cincinnati’s current 1-7 slide, take the Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, September 16.

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LIONS-BILLS OVER 54.5

Yes, 54 is a HUGE number. I understand why this total is intimidating. But I’m willing to lay it with the Over because I believe both offenses are capable of producing explosive plays all night, and there are multiple ways this game can get into the high 50s.

Both teams showed in Week 1 that they can score in bunches. Buffalo put up 36 points against Houston, while Detroit scored 31 points against New Orleans. Even more importantly, both teams needed late-game drives to win, showing that neither offense is afraid to keep attacking when the game is on the line.

The biggest reason I like the Over is Josh Allen. Buffalo's offense continues to be built around Allen's ability to create explosive plays with both his arm and his legs. The Bills also have strong continuity on offense, while Joe Brady remains heavily involved in the offensive system.

Detroit is also built to keep scoring. Jared Goff has a group of playmakers capable of moving the football, and Jahmyr Gibbs showed he can handle a massive workload after taking 29 carries in Week 1. Detroit's offense also has Amon-Ra St. Brown, giving Goff a reliable weapon when the Lions need to answer a score.

And here's the key with a number this high: I don't necessarily need both teams to score 30. A 31-24 game gets us to 55. A 34-23 game gets us to 57. A 35-24 game gets us to 59. There are plenty of realistic scoring combinations that get this Over without requiring a complete shootout.

I also expect the game environment to help. This is Buffalo's first regular-season game in the new Highmark Stadium, and it's a nationally televised Thursday night matchup. The Bills will have an enormous home atmosphere, while Detroit comes in after winning a dramatic overtime game in Week 1. Both teams are 1-0, and neither has any reason to play conservatively if this game turns into a shootout.

There are defensive concerns on both sides as well. Buffalo is transitioning to a new 3-4 defensive system under Jim Leonhard, while Detroit's secondary and offensive line are dealing with injury questions heading into the short week. Detroit's Christian Mahogany remains doubtful, and Blake Miller and D.J. Reed are also dealing with injuries.

The current market has actually moved into the 54–54.5 range, which tells you this is already being priced as an extremely high-scoring matchup.

**Yes, 54 is a high number. But I believe this is one of those games where the offenses are good enough to make the number irrelevant. Give me explosive plays, aggressive play-calling and two quarterbacks capable of creating points late.

MY PLAY: LIONS-BILLS OVER 54.5

Note: Plus, if you follow me for years, you know I like betting the highest total over and the lowest total under.

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North Texas is rebuilding under Neal Brown, but through two games I think this offense is ahead of schedule. The opener was a brutal assignment on the road against defending national champion Indiana, and even in a 52-16 loss there were positives. Tayven Jackson completed 22 of 28 passes for 192 yards, and North Texas had 16 points through three quarters before the game completely got away from them.

Then we saw what this offense could do against a much more reasonable opponent. UNLV went into North Texas in a game where the Mean Green were actually underdogs, and North Texas absolutely destroyed them 44-6. Jackson threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, while the Mean Green ran for 183 yards and averaged right around 4.8 yards per carry. They scored on the ground, through the air and put up 44 against a UNLV team that was expected to be competitive.

Now they get a Texas State defense that has been getting shredded. The Bobcats opened the season by allowing 59 points at Texas, then came home and lost 31-26 to UTSA. Through two games, Texas State is allowing 45 points and 457 yards per game, including more than 300 passing yards per game. That's a major step down in defensive difficulty from what North Texas faced at Indiana.

Jackson is also starting to look comfortable in this offense. He's completing 68.5% of his passes through two games, and against UNLV we saw North Texas establish the running game while still creating explosive plays through the air. That's exactly what I want when playing a team total—we don't need North Texas to rely on one specific part of the offense.

The full-game total is sitting around 63.5, so the market is already expecting points in this matchup. I think North Texas can hold up its end. This is a rebuilding roster, but there appears to be legitimate offensive talent here, and the 44-point performance against UNLV showed how quickly things may be coming together.

We only need 31 points against a Texas State defense that has allowed 59 and 31 in its first two games.

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Attacking with Anaheim over Seattle as the home dog is barking in Southern California on Wednesday. Yusei Kikuchi has pitched really well recently, letting up just 3 runs in his last 3 starts combined, lasting 17 innings in the process. He should have another solid outing against the Mariners bats who have struggled against southpaws.

Seattle starter George Kirby has not pitched well over the last month. He has letup an alarming 46 hits in his last 33 innings pitched. The Angels are starting to play some better ball and should get to him in this one. Just missing the client card- For today's free pick- Bet Angels.

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Missouri State earned a 21-20 road win at Marshall last season as a 7.5-point road 'dog. Marshall's hopes of getting some revenge for that loss took a big hit last week against Middle Tennessee as starting QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson suffered a shoulder injury. Early injury reports have him listed as questionable for this clash with the Bears, but his status is very important to monitor through out the week. After losing 50-0 at Texas A&M to open the year, Missouri State recovered with a 48-14 home win over FCS-level Lindenwood last week. There's not much to learn from those two results, so the Bears largely remain a mystery in the betting market. If Del Rio-Wilson is unable to go, we still have interest in the Herd. Tony Gibson strikes us as the kind of coach that can play up the revenge angle from last year. Fifth-year senior Zion Turner has experience, so while there is a drop-off from the talented Del Rio-Wilson, the learning curve of this offense won't be steep.
Play Marshall

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

A few weeks ago, the popular refrain from USC was that the “preseason” portion of the schedule would end as soon as Big Ten play commenced this week. That was before, however, we and everyone else got a good look at Saturday foe Rutgers, which is fortunate the Big Ten isn’t like the English Premier League and demotes the bottom three finishers to the MAC or Conference USA. The Scarlet Knights got boat-raced by 4-TD underdog UMass in the opener then lost at Boston College last Friday. Regional sources are now wondering that with a new athletic director and school prexy on board since his hire after the 2019 season, if perhaps head coach Greg Schiano’s only lifeline to the end of the season is a contract buyout (reportedly in the $17-18 million range) that a debt-ridden athletic department might not be able to swallow at the moment. It gets tougher for Schiano to fight back without a reliable QB, which he apparently doesn’t have after his first two options (transfer Dylan Lonergan, who missed the BC game due to injury, and third-year holdover AJ Surace) combined for a ghastly seven picks in the first two games. So, it seems like the “real season” for the Trojans now waits to begin next week vs. Oregon, while QB Jayden Maiava (81-percent completions, ten TD passes and just one interception in three games) has a chance to further fuel his fledgling Heisman campaign and impress some voters in the Eastern Time zone by detonating the Lincoln Riley offense, which is scoring at a brisk 43 points per game clip, in Piscataway. There is a significant caution at this inflated price, however, as the Trojan defense has leaked in the late going of the San Jose State and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajun blowouts while new (but veteran) defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has subbed freely to blood many his touted bluechip acquisitions. Indeed, the backdoor has already swung wide open a couple of times with the Spartans and Cajuns each taking advantage, and while Schiano’s QBs have been error-prone, they are likely to keep firing away for 60 minutes. With the meat of the schedule dead ahead, is there any reason for Riley to stay on the accelerator the whole way? One last reminder...the Trojans have yet to cover a spread in eight tries on the Big Ten road outside of Los Angeles County (which omits a close win over a subpar UCLA in nearby Pasadena two years ago) since joining the loop in 2024.
Play the Over

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

If you would have printed out the box score and handed it to Panthers' fans before Sunday's game against the Bears, almost every Carolina fan would have signed up for it on the spot. You're tellin' me we're going to score 37 points and generate 478 yards with 24 first downs while going 4-for-4 in the red zone?! We would imagine that most folks inside Bank of America Stadium would have signed up for that. Unfortunately, those numbers were only good enough for a 22-point defeat against the white-hot Bears. Bryce Young has seemingly formed a nice bond with Jalen Coker, but an offense with only two viable receivers (along with Tetairoa McMillan) is likely going to struggle. Xavier Legette and Jimmy Horn Jr. both failed to catch a pass on Sunday and Horn Jr. fumbled a punt, which has seemingly sealed their fate at the bottom of the depth chart. With Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both unavailable, the Falcons called upon Cooper Rush for a surprise start against the Steelers. Trailing by three with the ball near midfield in the fourth quarter, Rush had a screen pass intercepted by TJ Watt and returned for a touchdown. When asked about the potential return of either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, Falcons' head coach Kevin Stefanski simply replied, "No updates" in his Monday press conference. Carolina has had Atlanta's number over the past few years (4-1 straight-up and ATS last five meetings), and even though things got out of hand against the Bears, the Panthers still have some positives to take away from that result.
Play Carolina Panthers

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

After dropping the first two games of this series, the Jays need a win this afternoon. Scherzer struggled last time out. However, he's recently shown that he's still capable of dominating. Needless to say, he's got a lot of big game experience. Scherzer, who previously pitched for the Tigers, has a 3.24 career ERA against Detroit. Montero has a 9.00 ERA in two September starts. No sweep here. Jays bounce back.

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For Rays -1 at -136 vs. the Athletics on September 16, I like the setup considerably more than laying Rays -1.5 +125. The -1 gives you protection if Tampa wins by exactly one, which is relevant because they just beat Oakland 2-1 yesterday.

The strongest positives:

• Major starting-pitching edge: Nick Martinez over Brady Basso. Martinez enters 14-4 with a 2.92 ERA, while Basso is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA. Tampa has gone 10-4 when Martinez starts as a moneyline favorite.

• Martinez is in excellent form. In his previous start against Atlanta, he threw 6⅓ scoreless innings, extending his scoreless streak against Atlanta to 20⅓ innings.

• Basso isn't a high-volume starter. His recent starts have lasted only 4.0 innings, 2⅓ innings, etc. That potentially exposes a much weaker Oakland pitching staff earlier than you'd want against Tampa.

• Basso's underlying contact numbers aren't especially intimidating: hitters are batting about .307 overall against him by handedness, with lefties slugging .473 and righties .500.

• Tampa absolutely crushes this matchup historically this season. Before this series, the Rays swept Oakland 10-6, 12-4 and 8-4 in August. That's 30 runs in three games.

• Tampa is 51-25 at home, compared with Oakland's 32-43 road record entering this series. Tampa also has the better overall record at 91-59 vs. 61-90.

• The Rays are hot: they're 8-2 over their last 10 and have won four straight. Their season run differential is +70.

• Their offense has shown a very high ceiling recently. Tampa scored 14 runs on 15 hits against Houston on Sunday, and Junior Caminero now has 41 HR after yesterday's walk-off.

• Oakland's offense managed just 1 run and 4 hits yesterday. Tampa's pitching allowed Oakland's only run on a wild pitch rather than an RBI hit.

The reason I particularly prefer -1 rather than -1.5 is the market structure. Current widely available pricing cited this morning was roughly Rays ML -184 / Rays -1.5 +125. At -136, your -1 price sits nicely between them: you pay considerably less juice than the ML but don't need Tampa to win by 2+ to avoid losing.

-136 requires 57.63% break-even on graded decisions. But because a one-run Tampa victory pushes rather than loses, the practical proposition is more attractive than that simple break-even number suggests.

My matchup score lean would be roughly Rays 5, Athletics 2.

The biggest concern is that Basso has actually pitched better on the road (2.87 ERA) and has allowed only 2 earned runs across 9⅓ September innings. So I wouldn't treat him as an automatic fade. Tampa also struggled badly against Oakland starter Jack Perkins yesterday before Caminero's walk-off.

But Rays -1 -136 makes sense to me specifically because it protects against another 2-1/3-2 type game while still giving you a substantially better price than -184 ML.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

The case for the Over begins with a Penn State passing attack that has been far more explosive than its overall scoring numbers suggest through two games. The Nittany Lions own a 47.8% offensive success rate, but the passing game jumps to 54.5% with an elite 0.71 PPA and 1.86 explosiveness rating. Rocco Becht and the Penn State quarterbacks have completed 75.9% of their passes, averaged 11.0 yards per attempt, and produced seven touchdown passes without an interception. Becht followed the opener by completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns against Temple, showing Penn State can generate points efficiently through the air even as its running game remains inconsistent. The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack looks especially attractive against a Buffalo pass defense that has surrendered 7.6 yards per attempt, six touchdown passes, and 590 passing yards through two games. Buffalo's 1.98 defensive passing explosiveness ranks 131st, creating the kind of big-play vulnerability that Penn State's efficient passing attack can exploit. The Bulls have also generated only three sacks, so Becht should have opportunities to attack vertically. While Penn State's offense is playing at a relatively deliberate 29.3 seconds per play, the strongest path to the Over is through explosive scoring efficiency and short drives created through the passing game.

Buffalo is playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country (16.6 seconds when leading and 22.9 seconds when trailing), which will preserve possessions even if Penn State builds a substantial lead. Buffalo owns a +2.9% pass rate over expectation and throws on 59.5% of its offensive snaps, an aggressive profile that should keep the clock from continuously running in a game where the Bulls are likely to be chasing points. Although Buffalo's overall 32.7% success rate ranks only 132nd, its 1.37 explosiveness rating is much more respectable, and five passing touchdowns through two games show that the Bulls can still manufacture scoring plays despite poor down-to-down efficiency. Wide receiver Chance Morrow has accounted for all five Buffalo touchdowns and enters this matchup tied for the FBS lead with five touchdown receptions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database highlights several independent historical profiles supporting a high-scoring affair, the strongest of which involve low totals in games involving massive favorites:

• Large college football favorites of more than 32 points in games with totals below 56 are 276-164 to the Over (62.7%), producing +19.8% ROI since 1990;

• College football games in which the total is less than the point spread plus 14 points have gone 252-149 Over (62.8%), with a +20.0% ROI since 2004;

• Non-conference road underdogs of +35 to +50 with totals of 65 or fewer are 262-181 to the Over (59.1%), generating +12.9% ROI since 1989;

• Large college football favorites of 31 points or more with totals of 51 or fewer in games starting before 4 p.m. are 21-5 to the Over (80.8%), with a +54.2% ROI.

Penn State carries the larger scoring burden, and the combination of its efficient passing game, Buffalo's extreme vulnerability to explosive passes, and the Bulls' aggressive tempo creates a realistic script in which the Nittany Lions push into the 40s while Buffalo supplies enough points on the other side. With Penn State holding a major offensive matchup advantage and Buffalo structurally inclined to speed up the game rather than shorten it, take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

About all the Rays didn’t do last night was win on the Run Line, but it was another success at the Trop, as the 2-1 win over the A”s moved Tampa Bay to an MLB-best 51-25 at home.

In this lastet four-game win streak, pitching has also been superb, surrendering just 8 runs, and Wednesday starter Nick Martinez has been winning all season, as his 14-4 record suggests. He’s also worked at least six innings in his last four outings in which he’s posted a 2.19 ERA. Note that Martinez went the distance at Sacramento in a 12-4 romp past the A’s on August 11, and on the season, the Rays have won in 22 of his 29 starts. Play Rays on Run Line

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Oregon Ducks (ATS) | Good until -59.5.

Oregon got humiliated last week against Oklahoma State, getting torched both on the scoreboard & the stat-sheets. Portland State hasn't looked great this season, which makes this a prime blowout spot. Oregon will be mad and want to prove to everyone that it's still a contender. This line is ridiculously large. But, we saw what Miami did last week as a similar sized favorite. Go with Oregon.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Friday Night Lights in the Lone Star State featuring Texas Tech hosting Houston. Nationally televised primetime on Fox. Right off the rip, if you don't like betting the contrarian angle stop reading now. This is a setup where the masses are going to be on the Cougars, however the Red Raiders are the play.

Texas Tech did not look good last week in a strange trip to Corvallis, Oregon. Friday night back in Lubbock, I expect a "Bounce back" effort. The oddsmakers and betting public have pushed this number all the way down to (-7.5). A huge move from the Game of the Year lines a couple weeks ago having Texas Tech as nearly a two touchdown favorite. Also, important to note that the line steamed down to (-7.5) and stayed off (-7). If you see a (-7) I would pounce quickly, because the market is telling us there will likely be buy back.

Joey McGuire's squad is not only the highest spender in the BIG 12 Conference NIL by a wide margin. They have won and covered 7 straight against Houston. Including by 3+ touchdowns in each of the last two meetings. Houston QB Conner Weigman is a former 5 star recruit, one of the supposedly best QB's in his class. This is now his 5th year in college and at no point has he come remotely close to living up to his hype. We have seen him countless times at Texas A&M and now in Houston, I even saw him live late last year in Orlando almost cough a game up to a banged up UCF squad. Do not be surprised if he struggles mightily in Lubbock. This one just missed the client card. For Friday's free pick- Bet Texas Tech.

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Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Chicago starter Shota Imanaga projects to give up 2.13 runs with a 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  Atlanta’s lineup has hit just .254 (16-63) with a weak .277 OBP against Imanaga in his career.  The Braves will start JR Ritchie.  The righty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.79 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Chicago’s favor, look for the Cubs to get a solid home win in this game on Wednesday night.

Play CUBS (-).

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Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

(105) Syracuse at (106) Pittsburgh: Total

Total Under 51.5 (-110)

Syracuse is averaging only 18 PPG.

Pittsburgh is allowing just 10.5 PPG.

Syracuse is averaging only 4.9 yards/play.

This is a much better Under setup than the early-season raw scoring numbers might suggest. 

Recent rivalry history strongly favors the Under.

6 of the last 7 meetings have gone Under, averaging only 41 total points.

Play: UNDER 51.5

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

A little late to the party here after seeing the 9.5 flash on Sunday and not grabbing it right away. Hence, the free play versus a premium. Both teams have faced Oregon State this season. Houston beat them 33-20 in Week 1 and held the Beavers to 26 rushing yards. Texas Tech went to Corvallis a week later and won 35-24 while giving up 472 total yards. Two wins over the same opponent, but the box score tells a different story.

If you recall we took under 10.5 wins +185 on here as a free play to start the season. Primarily because the overhype coupled with the giant bullseye on the Red Raiders back for the offseason drama involving Brendan Sorsby. And after seeing Will Hammond for two games we now know why they fought so hard for him.

Couple of injuries on the Tech side of the ball. Tight end Terrance Carter (foot) and edge rusher Trey White (knee) are both game time calls.

Yes, Lubbock at night is worth five to the number. The place is a hostile environment. Texas Tech has won six in a row in this series, including 35-11 in Houston last year. Might be time for the streak to be broken. Worth a little moneyline sprinkle.

PLAY: Houston +7.5. 

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

I am putting Texas Tech on Upset Alert! Everyone can see it, there is a consensus opinion that the Red Raiders have lost a step, and they aren't living up to expectations as favorites to win the BIG12. After a lackluster performance in their season opener versus Albien Christian, they barely beat the Beavers as a 26.5 point favorite in Corvallis on Saturday. The final score doesn't tell the whole story, as the Beavs had the ball down 28-24 inside 2 minutes remaining. They ended up turning the ball over and giving up another TD. The box score shows that Oregon State dominated total yards, and QB Braden Aktinson threw for 413 yards and a pair of TDs. Will Hammond has failed to impress for the Red Raiders. Houston may have the better quarterback and the better coach, and the advantages the Red Raiders were expected to have may not be as significant as expected.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The Chargers knocked a ton of survivor players out with a 26-14 loss at home last week to an Arizona team that had a preflop win total of 4.5. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he regretted not getting his starters more playing time in the preseason, and it showed on the field. LA had 2 turnovers and was outgained 393-268 in total yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders handled business in a 2 touchdown win over Miami as the Klink Kubiak era got off to a good start. Also keep in mind that this will be like a home game for the Raiders due to the huge fan base and the lack of local support for the Chargers. Vegas still has a ways to go before becoming a serious contender, but we’ll play the number getting a full touchdown against a Chargers’ squad that was clearly overvalued in the betting market. Take the Raiders.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Dabo Swinney will be shown the door soon at Clemson and we’ll fade them with points in our pocket as they clash with UNC on Saturday. The season started with a humiliating 51-10 loss to LSU and last week the Tigers failed to cover again against Georgia Southern. Once an elite organization, Swinney’s inability to adjust to the current landscape of college football has led his team straight downhill, and they’re off to an 0-2 ATS start as a result. North Carolina got their revenge on TCU to kick off the season, winning outright as over a touchdown underdog before an easy winner against ETSU. Bill Belichick has essentially had 3 weeks to prepare for this game after facing the much lower level competition, and we have a live dog on our hands when the Tar Heels head to Clemson in early action Saturday. Take UNC.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The Hoosiers dominated each of their first two opponents but came up just short of covering. Laying -40.5 points, they beat North Texas by 36. Last week, laying -57.5, they won by 55. This week's number isn't as big as last week's and should allow the defending champs a chance for their first ATS victory. WKU has played a very tough schedule, as this will be its third straight road game. WKU lost by 50 at Georgia last week and by 35 at Nevada to start the season. If the Wolf Pack can beat the Hilltoppers by 35, imagine what the Hoosiers will do. Catching their guests playing a third straight road game, the Hoosiers should be able to win by at least as many as Georgia did. Expect this one to be totally lopsided from the start.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago