Free Sports Predictions JAN 17: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Score prediction:

Houston 79, Arizona State 61
Breakdown of the total over/under: The consensus over/under is set at 146.5. Houston's elite defense has held opponents to just 57 points per game in January, while Arizona State's defense has been porous, allowing 93 points per game. However, Houston's offense averages only 72.5, and Arizona State's scoring dips to 83.5. Expect a low-scoring affair dominated by Houston's defense, pushing the total under 146.5 as the Cougars control the pace and limit Arizona State's opportunities.

Breakdown of the spread:

Houston is favored by 16.5 points. The Cougars have been dominant in January, winning by an average margin of 15.5 points, with strong defensive performances. Arizona State has struggled, losing three of four January games by an average of 10.7 points, and their high points allowed (93 PPG) plays into Houston's strengths. At home in Fertitta Center, Houston should pull away in the second half for a comfortable win, covering the -16.5 spread.

Trends:

• Houston is on a 10-game winning streak, including 4-0 in January with wins by margins of 7, 4, 22, and 29 points. They start strong (averaging 33 points in first halves in January home games) but have shown tendencies to rally if behind early, as seen in close first halves against Texas Tech (tied at halftime) before pulling away. Home patterns show solid defense, allowing under 60 points in recent games, and they cover the spread in 50% of home games this season. Game totals have gone under in all four January games, aligning with the 146.5 O/U today. Halftime totals average around 66 combined points in their January games.

• Arizona State is 1-4 in their last 5 games, with a 4-game losing streak snapped by a narrow win over Kansas State before losing again. They have cold spots in away games, covering the spread in only 1 of their last 4 road contests, and tend to fade in the second half (allowing 51+ points in second halves of January losses). Home/away patterns: 1-3 in January (0-2 away), with losing margins of 6, 28, and 7 points in losses. Game totals have gone over in their last 6 games, but today's O/U of 146.5 may buck that trend against Houston's defense. Halftime losing margins average 12 points in away losses; they start cold on the road but attempt late rallies when behind. Compared to odds: Arizona State's over trend contrasts Houston's under streak, suggesting the under is likely; their poor away defense supports Houston covering -16.5.

Player matchup breakdowns:

• Guards: Maurice Odum (ASU, 16.8 PPG, 6.5 APG) vs. Kingston Flemings (Houston, 15.4 PPG, 5.2 APG). Odum is Arizona State's playmaker, capable of high-scoring games (23 points vs. Arizona), but he'll face pressure from Flemings, who excels in transition and ball distribution. Advantage: Flemings, as Houston's defensive scheme limits opposing guards to low efficiency.

• Wings/Forwards: Emanuel Sharp (Houston, 15.9 PPG) vs. Santiago Trouet (ASU, 5.8 RPG). Sharp's scoring versatility from outside could exploit Trouet's rebounding focus, but Trouet may struggle offensively against Houston's athletic forwards. Advantage: Sharp, given his recent 17-point outings and Houston's perimeter defense.

• Bigs: Massamba Diop (ASU, 14.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG) vs. Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston, 7.6 RPG). Diop brings scoring inside (16 points vs. Arizona), but Cenac's rebounding dominance and Houston's paint protection (low opponent FG% inside) will challenge him. Advantage: Cenac, as Houston bigs have held opponents under 60 points recently.

• Bench/Depth: Arizona State's injuries (Adams, Holiman out) limit rotation to 7-8 players, while Houston's depth (five in double figures vs. Baylor) allows fresh legs. Advantage: Houston, especially in the second half where they rally or extend leads.

Arizona State kept the game close against rival Arizona on the road, do you still think Houston beats them by 17

I was waiting for that question. Yes, I still think Houston covers -16.5 and wins by around 17 or more. Arizona State showed real fight leading 39-38 at halftime, stayed competitive deep into the second half (cut it to 4 points late with runs like 6-0 and a 3-pointer to get within striking distance), and only lost 89-82 after Arizona pulled away with better second-half execution, rebounding (39-28 edge), and free throws. Maurice Odum had 23 points (including a late 3-point play), Massamba Diop scored 16 efficiently inside, and they forced a physical, gritty game with low turnovers early (just 1 in the first half) and solid perimeter shooting to counter Arizona's paint dominance. That said, this doesn't drastically change my view on the Houston matchup for a few key reasons:

• Houston's defense is elite and disruptive in a different way — ASU allowed 89 points to Arizona (a high-powered offense), but Houston has been holding teams to around 57 PPG in January games. Their pressure, length, and paint protection (led by guys like Chris Cenac Jr. and Joseph Tugler) should limit ASU's inside scoring from Diop and force more contested perimeter shots. ASU's road defense has still been vulnerable overall this season.

• Pace and style mismatch — The ASU-Arizona game was a rivalry slugfest with physicality and some foul trouble issues for ASU (Diop picked up his 4th foul midway through the second half). Houston plays slower, more controlled, and suffocating — they dictate tempo at home in Fertitta Center (9-0 home record, strong in recent games). ASU's offense (which relies on transition and perimeter play) could get bogged down, leading to fewer possessions and a lower-scoring output than against Arizona.

• Recent form contrast — Houston remains on a long win streak (16-1 overall per latest lines), dominant at home, and has covered in blowout fashion against lesser offenses. ASU is 10-7 (1-3 in Big 12 per reports), and while the Arizona game was their best effort recently, it was still a loss on the road against a top team — their road struggles persist (e.g., larger margins in other January losses).

• Spread context — The line is still Houston -16.5 (with O/U around 146.5). ASU kept it "close" against Arizona (7-point final margin), but that was in a high-total game (171 combined points). Against Houston's defense, expect a lower total and more separation as the Cougars pull away in the second half (their pattern: strong finishes, rallying if needed, but often building leads at home).

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Talked about this bet on today's NFL Betting Show:

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Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos are established elite doubles players, both ranked inside the top tier globally, and this matchup is a massive class gap. Sebastian Baez and Francisco Comesana are essentially a thrown-together singles pairing with no doubles pedigree. They are unranked as a team, have lost their last five matches together, and have only one win as a pairing overall. They lack chemistry, structure, and experience, which is exactly what gets exposed against a disciplined, high-level doubles team like Granollers and Zeballos. Everything points to a routine straight-sets outcome.

The second leg features Kevin Krawietz and Tim Puetz, both ranked 11th in the world and one of the more reliable doubles teams on tour. They face Arthur Rinderknech and Valentin Vacherot, another unranked, low-continuity pairing that has played together only twice and lost both matches, including losses to teams clearly inferior to Krawietz and Puetz. This is another severe mismatch in terms of doubles IQ, positioning, and execution, and it profiles very similarly to the first leg as a clean 2–0 win.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

The Red Wings won at Ottawa a couple of weeks ago. They should have the advantage against the Senators again on Sunday. While the Wings had Saturday off, the Sens are off a hard-fought game against the rival Canadiens. The Wings have been playing well and they're tough (17-8-1) to beat on home ice. Schedule in their favor, this line could easily be higher. Wings roll.

Ben Burns is the defending NFL (and CFB) Champion. He was #1 again this NFL regular season and he's off to a perfect start to the playoffs.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

While the Patriots won and covered last week versus the Chargers, they only scored 16 points. It won't get any easier against the NFL's top ranked defense of the Texans. A road game in bad weather? Been there done that for the Texans who won by 24 points at Pittsburgh last week. The Patriots stats may be a bit skewed by the fact that they played the weakest schedule of any team in the NFL. I do believe the Pats should be favored here at home, but I would make the line -2.5 rather than 3.5.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Player matchup breakdowns:

• Javion Hamlet (Tianjin, 22.8 PPG, 4.7 APG) vs Haowen Guo (Nanjing, 21.5 PPG, 5.9 APG): High-scoring guard duel; Hamlet's efficiency (52.8 FG%) edges Guo, but Guo's assists could exploit Tianjin's turnover issues.

• Benson Lin (Tianjin, 19.3 PPG, 5.4 APG) vs Jaylen Hands (Nanjing, limited games but 32 PPG, 12 APG): Lin consistent playmaker; Hands explosive but recent addition - if playing, could dominate, but Lin's experience in CBA favors him.

• Scottie James (Tianjin, 15.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG) vs Brady Manek (Nanjing, 13.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG): Rebound battle; James stronger inside, Manek stretches floor with 3s.

• Overall: Tianjin's backcourt depth (Hamlet/Lin) overpowers Nanjing's, especially with Lin Wei out; frontcourt even, but Tianjin's home advantage tips edge.

Recent data (post-December 2025) shows both teams trending toward lower-scoring games, especially Nanjing Tongxi:

• Tianjin has struggled offensively in recent outings, with examples including scores like 68, 74, and other sub-90 outputs in December/early January losses.

• Nanjing Tongxi has been particularly low-scoring lately, e.g., 71-87 loss to Guangdong (total 158) on January 13, 2026, and prior games in the 70s range.

• Their most recent head-to-head (December 26, 2025: Nanjing 76 - Tianjin 104, total 180) was close to the line but still under 187.5, and Nanjing's scoring has dropped further since then.

Nanjing's defensive-oriented or low-pace style (often allowing/ scoring in the 70s-80s recently) combined with Tianjin's inconsistent offense at home against weaker opponents supports unders.

Take under 185 or higher to the under.

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The primary pros for betting the Over 73.5 wins on the Miami Marlins for the 2026 season center on their clear upward trajectory and strategic offseason enhancements. Coming off a solid 79-83 finish in 2025—their best record in recent years and a significant improvement that included a strong second half and flirtation with relevance—the team demonstrated growing competitiveness, particularly with young talent stepping up in areas like the infield, outfield, and pitching depth. I have confidence in the rotation's stability and competence as most projected starters (even depth options) are expected to post ERAs better than 4.50, supporting a reliable pitching foundation despite some trades.

Offseason moves further bolster the case: the Marlins added impactful pieces like closer Pete Fairbanks (a one-year, $13M signing for bullpen stability), outfielder Christopher Morel (power and versatility), promising young outfielders Owen Caissie (via trade from Cubs) and Esteury Ruiz (from Dodgers), and a haul of prospects/infielders/outfielders from deals involving Ryan Weathers (to Yankees) and Edward Cabrera (to Cubs). These acquisitions address offensive gaps (especially power and depth up the middle) while the losses were primarily of controllable pitchers traded for youth and future upside, aligning with a build-without-blocking-talent approach.

Projections and analyses suggest the Marlins could push toward or above .500 (around 78-82 wins), well clear of 73.5, especially if key youngsters like Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee, Otto Lopez, and others continue progressing or break out further. The line appears undervalued given their 2025 baseline and roster upgrades, making the over a value play with momentum on their side in a division where not every team is peaking.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on McLaughlin ATTD.

RJ Harvey has really struggled since the injury to JK Dobbins, and the Broncos need somebody to come in and pick up the slack. Jaleel McLaughlin looks like he might be that guy. He comes in averaging 5.1 yards per carry. I could see Sean Payton trusting him with short yardage carries on the goal line.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago