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Bryan Power
Major League Baseball
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The Reds have won five straight, all on the road, and all as underdogs. They, along with the Dodgers, are the only teams yet to suffer a defeat away from home. I think that streak (for the Reds) ends tonight in Miami.
The Marlins are sending Eury Perez to the bump. While off to a bit of a shaky start to 2026, including SIX walks his last time out, Perez is still more trustworthy than Reds' starter Brady Singer, whose success since the start of last season is mostly tied to a level of run support that won't be sustained.
But, more than anything else, I am simply willing to bet that the Reds are going to win six straight as road underdogs.
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Major League Baseball
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Mariners @ Rangers — Wednesday, April 8, 2026 — 1:35 PM CDT
Current matchup is Bryan Woo vs. MacKenzie Gore at Globe Life Field. The listed pairing is correct. Consensus market is around SEA -116 / TEX +102, with a full-game total of 8.0. Globe Life Field is roof-controlled, so outdoor weather is not a material run input here. ESPN’s current game page shows Woo at 1.38 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 13.0 IP, 15 K, and Gore at 3.97 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 16 K entering the game.
Texas is in a better immediate team spot than the surface moneyline suggests. Seattle has lost five of six and scored only 31 runs in its last 10 games, while Texas just took the first two games of the series and got a strong bullpen effort in Monday’s 2-1 win. Seattle’s offense also has a major handedness problem here: the Mariners own only a .562 OPS vs left-handed pitching this season, one of the weakest marks in MLB. Texas, facing a righty, is at .715 OPS vs right-handed pitching.
The direct pitcher-vs-opponent history also leans Texas. Gore has been dominant against Seattle, carrying a 1-0 record, 0.69 ERA, and 16 strikeouts in 13.0 career innings against the Mariners, including a 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K start on May 29, 2025, which fits the requested date window. Bryan Woo’s strongest direct negative signal is versus Corey Seager, who has 2 HR and a 2.194 OPS against him in their career meetings, and the same StatMuse table also shows Marcus Semien and Adolis García with strong enough prior damage to matter.
Component estimate
Component | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
Baseline offense | 3.55 | 4.25 |
Handedness adjustment | -0.30 | +0.10 |
Starter adjustment | +0.10 | +0.05 |
BvP / opponent-history adjustment | -0.15 | +0.15 |
Bullpen adjustment | +0.15 | -0.05 |
Home/away/day-game adjustment | -0.05 | +0.10 |
Park / roof / April adjustment | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Projected runs | 3.3 | 4.6 |
Projected score
Split | SEA | TEX | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 1.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 |
Full game | 3.3 | 4.6 | 7.9 |
Projected starting pitcher box
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryan Woo | 5 2/3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
MacKenzie Gore | 5 2/3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
Woo’s innings expectation stays solid because of his current efficiency and WHIP. Gore’s stays in the same band because his strikeout profile is strong, and Seattle’s current split versus lefties is poor enough to support another efficient outing.
Projected hitter box — SEA
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Raley | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Brendan Donovan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Julio Rodríguez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Cal Raleigh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Randy Arozarena | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Mitch Garver | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
J.P. Crawford | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jorge Polanco | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Victor Robles | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Projected hitter box — TEX
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brandon Nimmo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wyatt Langford | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Corey Seager | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Jake Burger | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Joc Pederson | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Evan Carter | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Danny Jansen | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Josh Smith | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ezequiel Duran / Josh Jung slot | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Texas lineup assumptions are based on the most recent series usage, with Josh Jung’s status still somewhat fluid after being described as banged up on April 7.
Wager & Probability Analysis (model-driven)
Using only the projected score, Texas projects to win 61.4% of the time, which converts to fair odds of TEX -159 / SEA +159. The first-five projection of 2.6 to 1.4 converts to approximately TEX 69.7% / SEA 30.3%, or fair F5 side odds of about TEX -230 / SEA +230.
Moneyline
Side | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus vs fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEA | 38.6% | +159 | -116 | Much worse than fair | No value |
TEX | 61.4% | -159 | +102 | Better than fair by 61 cents | Value |
Totals
With a projected full-game total of 7.9 against a market 8.0, the total is basically fair. With a projected first-five total of 4.0, the common 4.0 to 4.5 F5 range is also close to fair.
Market | Model total | Side | Fair odds | Consensus odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
F5 4.0 | 4.0 | Over | +100 | market range 4.0 to 4.5 |
F5 4.0 | 4.0 | Under | +100 | market range 4.0 to 4.5 |
FG 8.0 | 7.9 | Over | +102 | o8.0 +100 |
FG 8.0 | 7.9 | Under | -102 | u8.0 around -120 |
Rank chart among all 30 teams
Category | SEA | TEX |
|---|---|---|
Today’s starting pitcher, current ERA+WHIP curve of 30 | Bryan Woo: top 5 range | MacKenzie Gore: top 12 range |
Bullpen last 10 days | top 5 | around 14th-16th |
Lineup run production last 10 days | bottom 10 | middle tier |
Seattle’s bullpen/staff form is elite lately, but that is outweighed here by the offense-vs-handedness gap and Gore’s direct history against Seattle. Texas’ lineup-production ranking is held down a bit by the modest raw run output early in the season, but it still grades better than Seattle in this specific split matchup.
Final call
Item | Projection |
|---|---|
1st 5 innings | TEX 2.6, SEA 1.4 |
Full game | TEX 4.6, SEA 3.3 |
Best side | Rangers moneyline |
Best total | No strong edge |
Strongest matchup edge | Seattle’s .562 OPS vs left-handed pitching |
Strongest counterweight | Seattle’s elite recent bullpen/staff form |
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Pavlos Laguretos
UEFA
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PSG vs Liverpool
Champions League, Wednesday, 3pm ET
Play: Mamardashvili 4+ Saves
Odds at Time of Release: -135 DraftKings
Line Parameter: Line good to -150, otherwise take 1% on 5+ Saves
PSG are -130 favourites at home, the Draw is at +315 and Liverpool are +340 underdogs on the road, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total set at 3.25 Goals.
Right off the bat, I know a LOT of people that will rush to take PSG ML, and I don't blame them. Liverpool look very bad lately, while PSG are coming off 4 consecutive wins and look scary at the moment.
They absolutely humiliated Chelsea in the previous round, beating them by 5-2 in this venue and by 3-0 on the road. But Chelsea aren't in good shape either. Liverpool have won just 1 of L/5 in all competitions (W1 D1 L3), a 4-0 at home vs Galatasaray. During that span they were also HUGE favourites to beat Tottenham, and again, everyone I know was on Liverpool in that game, which ended as a 1-1 draw. And then three losses to Galatasaray, Brighton and, most recently, Man City. Now with 4 losses in L/5 on the road, the hand cannot easily go to Liverpool here.
These two also met in the round of 16 of the Champions League last season, where Liverpool absolutely escaped Paris with a 1-0 win at the death, as they were pummeled by PSG in the entire game but score a late goal and won by 1-0. But they lost by the same score in Liverpool, match went to extra time and eventually penalty kicks, where PSG won, went through, and went on to win the UCL.
PSG had 10 and 8 shots on target in those two matches, meaning the Liverpool's goalkeeper, Alisson, made 10 and 7 saves in those two matches. He is now injured for this game, and his sub, Georgian WALL Giorgi Mamardashvili is a pretty good shot-stopper as well.
Now here is a big difference in odds between DraftKings and FanDuel. Mamardashvili to make 4+ Saves is at a VERY playable -135 at DraftKings, but -230 at FanDuel, which is a big opportunity to make some money here.
By the same token, 5+ Saves is +160 at DraftKings, but -110 at FanDuel. You might want to ladder these Saves props, but I am going with DraftKings' absolute MISTAKE in these odds and taking Mamardashvili 4+ Saves at -135
Take 3% on Mamardashvili 4+ Saves (-135 DraftKings), line good to -150, otherwise take 1% on 5+ Saves
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Bruce Marshall
NHL Hockey
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Do we dare here with the Rangers, who have shown some real life (finally!) In the past two weeks?
It’s too late to get involved in a playoffs push, but with no pressure, Mike Sullivan has finally been able to start pressing the right buttons, never more so than Sunday’s 8-1 romp past the Caps featuring a hat-trick from Will Cuylie. Also, the defense has been very good lately, allowing just eight goals across the past six games, five of those being NY wins, and Igor Shesterkin flashing vintage form in goal, stopping 90 of 96 shots (.938 saves) his past four starts.
As for the playoff-bound Sabres, it was a big win on Monday over Tampa Bay, but ever-so-slightly, Buffalo has looked a bit low on petrol after four months of almost non-stop winning, dropping 5 of its last 8. Moreover, Alex Lyon (expected in the nets tonight) is having his troubles lately in goal, pulled after six minutes in Saturday’s 5-2 loss to the Caps, with no wins in his last three starts, and just .772 saves (not good!) in those efforts. We use the Rangers +130 and don’t expect the price to move much, but we’d keep NY as a play down to +120 at MSG tonight. Play Rangers on Money Line
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Don Buster
NHL Hockey
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GOOD TO 7
This game is another not going to overthink it. However we did lose the Montreal in regulation after they no showed for the first two periods. All this big stress hockey games maybe getting to the club late. Nevertheless, we will play this OVER 6 1/2 at the time of this writing in this one. It will be 7 come gametime just as it was on March 17Th and we bet it OVER the 7 and still won. These teams have played 3 times this season and all OVERs. SJ is desperate for wins and we believe the only way they beat this Oilers club is with Offense. Edmonton is on a back to back so that helps the OVER here. When Edmonton hits the road they seem to play much worse defensively. They allowed 6 goals in Salt Lake City last night and we believe both teams will score tonight. We see a up and down competitive game.
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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Two teams with losing records continue their series in Minneapolis on Wednesday as the Tigers and Twins match up. Don’t expect Detroit to have a losing record for long, and they have a great chance at picking up the win today behind Framber Valdez, who has been phenomenal this season. Valdez threw 6 shutout innings the last time he took the mound and has allowed just 1 earned run through his first 2 starts. We’ve seen him do great things for years and on the biggest stage. He has a wicked sinker that he’ll use the majority of the time and will throw in a curveball and change as well. Bailer Ober has been good, but we can expect Detroit to come away with the win in this one. Take the Tigers.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Getting down on the Royals in the overnight betting markets for Wednesday's early action. Cole Ragans on the hill for Kansas City and the southpaw bounce back nicely his last time out going 6 clean innings with an 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio. The last time Ragans faced Cleveland he silenced them to the tune of 1 run over 7.2 innings with a stellar 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio. This play just missed the 5 pick client card for Wednesday- For the hump day free pick- Bet Royals at the short number.
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Will Rogers
NHL Hockey
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[FREE PICK] on Washington Capitals - ML | Good until -160.
With so many teams still battling it out in the Eastern Conference, it's pretty much over for the Capitals if they don't win this game. Yes, it's going to be extremely difficult to win these last four games. But, the least that they can do is try. Toronto has been giving up a ton of goals lately, including seven last time out against the LA Kings. I think that Ovechkin will put his team on his back and will his team to at least put them in the conversation.
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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I've successfully played on the Orioles in each of the first two games of this series. Both were close, low-scoring Baltimore wins, in chilly Chicago temperatures. The O's won 2-1 and 4-2. The weather is expected to start warming up Wednesday and the Sox bats should do the same. Bradish hasn't been very good in his first two starts. In fact, he's 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. On the other hand, Burke has a 3.60 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 12 K's against only two walk, in 10 innings. In six home innings, he has a stingy 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. In what could well be another close one, grab the extra +1.5 runs with Chicago.
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