Free Sports Predictions APR 14: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports
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Free Picks, Best Bets Today for All Sports From Experts Only
Jeff Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(979) Seattle Mariners at (980) San Diego Padres: Moneyline
Seattle Mariners -120 Bryan Woo (RHP) Must Start
System Trends:
Relevant System: A notable system indicates that away favorites with no rest following win in a day game facing an opponent with rest who is also coming off a win hold a strong record of 19-6 (75%) since 2020.
Run Line Success: This same system applies to the run line as well, where those teams also boast a 19-6 record making it even stronger.
Seattle Mariners Performance Analysis:
Recent Success: The Mariners come into this game on a 4-game winning streak, having scored a total of 29 runs during this stretch. Their offensive output reflects a solid form, making them a competitive team.
Starting Pitcher - Brian Woo: Woo has been exceptional on the mound, posting a 1.50 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP along with an impressive 17-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This level of performance positions him as a key contributor to the Mariners' success and makes him a formidable challenge for opposing hitters.
San Diego Padres Performance Analysis:
Current Streak: San Diego is also riding a 5-game winning streak. However, it is important to note that their recent victories have come against the Colorado Rockies as favorites ranging from -165 to -210.
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$5 MLB PLAY OF THE DAY! 65% RUN!
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JOIN THE #2 CAPPER (+49.8%) YTD FOR HIS $5 MLB ACTION! Join Jeff for his Tuesday MLB $5 customer appreciation package. He is now 20-11-1 (65%) on these discounted Tuesday plays.Cashed in on 7 of his L10 3% sides action!
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Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Getting down on this one in the overnight betting markets and backing the Fish with Max Meyer on the hill getting the plus price. The righty has been solid so far this season and he is up against a questionable Braves starter. Reynaldo Lopez is slated to go for Atlanta and the last time he was on the bump he was in a literal fist fight with Solar charging the mound. After serving his five game suspension it makes for a tricky handicap against a pesky Miami lineup. Laying over (-150) with the Braves is too expensive. Just missed the client for for Tuesday. For today's free pick- Bet Marlins (+130).
4% TUESDAY BEST BET $5 MLB (100%) $$
51-34 (60%) All 3%+ sides for over (+68% PROFIT)
Today’s MLB Betting Show:
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4% TUESDAY BEST BET *$5* MLB (100%) $$
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Straight off last night's (8-1) win on the 5% play we are back with the today's best bet on the diamond. MONEY PRINTING: 51-34 (60%) All 3%+ sides for over (+68% PROFIT). NEXT ONE HERE! ONLY $5, normally $25= Take advantage! First pitch primetime today. This is a premium client 4% BEST BET package with detailed written analysis inside. Ca ...
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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Bryan Power
Major League Baseball
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2% Tampa Bay (7:40 ET): Coming into the 2026 season, I was higher than the market on both of these teams (relative to their respective season win totals). But, pretty clear to me, that the White Sox still have a “long way to go” as they’re just 6-10 with a MLB-worst -30 run differential. They were probably happy to have Monday off as NINE pitchers were used in Sunday’s 6-5 win at Kansas City. Noah Schultz will be making his big league debut here. While he impressed in three appearances down at Triple-A Charlotte (3-0, 1.29 ERA) this season, you have to wonder if he’s being rushed up. Last year, Schultz posted a 4.95 ERA in the minors with a pretty high walk rate.
You also have to figure that Schultz may be on a “short leash” in his big league debut, which brings in the White Sox awful bullpen (5.35 ERA) sooner rather than later. Again, eight different relievers were used Sunday. Then you also have the matter of Chicago being the lowest-scoring team in all of baseball with just 49 runs in 16 games. They were shut out both Friday and Saturday by the Royals.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, just pulled off its first three-game sweep of the Yankees since 2021 by scoring exactly five runs every time out. The Rays’ offense is Top 10 so far, averaging 4.7 runs per game. In terms of pitching, they’ll send lefty Shane McClanahan to the bump tonight. McClanahan, an All-Star in both 2022 and ‘23, missed all of the L2 seasons due to injury. He’s allowed just three hits (but seven walks) in his first two starts back. I expect the control issue to be cleaned up moving forward. This is an ideal matchup against a White Sox lineup that is not only dead last in scoring, but dead last in wRC+ (68). They are batting just .198 against lefties. End of the day, I just think the Rays are the far better ballclub here. 2% Tampa Bay (Play to -152)
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$5 MLB BEST BET (TOTAL) ~ 100% RECORD IN APRIL!
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Bryan Power has played FOUR MLB totals so far in April. He is a PERFECT 4-0! Tonight, BP puts that ***100% RECORD*** on the line and this total happens to be rated as a 4% BEST BET! You can get on board for ***ONLY $5!***These are the four MLB totals BP has played this month ...4/2 - Braves/D'backs Over 8.5: Final score was 17-2!4/3 - Phillies ...
TUESDAY *2 FOR 1* ~ 4% MLB BEST BET + NBA PLAY-IN WINNER!: $29.00
Get not only the 4% BEST BET in MLB from Bryan Power (which is also being sold separately for $5) but also his FAVORITE bet for Tuesday's NBA Play-In Tournament right here. ***Just $29 for BOTH plays!***Over the last 11 months, BP is hitting 60% overall and UP 37.9 units betting the NBA! Last year, he closed the playoffs on an UN-BE-LI-EVABLE ...
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The Prez
NHL Hockey
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This game is in regulation. Please look for the 3way line.
If you have listened to my show, The Best Betting Show Ever on Wagertalk TV at YouTube, you know I have been betting on the Jets for th least 2 months. I said, they were going to make a run for the playoffs and likely will come up a game or 2 short. Well that is where we are at and now their run is over and they can breath. This is both a play on the Mammoth and against the Jets. The Jets have nothing to play for and frankly gave too much the last 2 months. They are tired and want the season to end and I don’t think they even show up tonight. As for the Mammoth, they MUST win this game and avoid playing the Avs. This is crucial, as if they can hold the top WC spot, they get Vegas and that is a winnable series for them. I think we get a big effort from them tonight and no effort from the Jets.
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***VERY RARE 4% NBA TOTAL TUES*** 12-4 TOTALS RUN / 62% IN 3 YEARS OF NBA PLAYOFF BETS
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92-57 IN 3 YEARS OF NBA PLAYOFFS BETTING! BIG BET ALERT: 90% of Prez’ bets are 2/3% bets, so when he finds a 4 or 5% betting spot, you must join him. He has only had FOUR NBA bets 4% or higher and is 3-1 on them this season. He is on a 4-1, 12-4 and 23-11 all totals betting run and is 62%, up almost 50 units or profit since Dec 1st. Today, on cus ...
***THE 5% NBA BET*** PERFECT IN NBA 5% BETS / 62% IN 3 YEARS OF NBA PLAYOFF BETS : $35.00
HUGE STEP OUT BET: 90% of Prez’ bets are 2/3% bets, so when he finds a 4 or 5% betting spot, you must join him. He has only had FIVE Basketball 5% bets and is 4-1 (80%) on them this year in them. This is his 3rd NBA 5% all year and he is a PERFECT 2-0 in them. Prez is an NBA Playoff Betting Profit Machine!! Last Year, Prez is was 30-20 (60%) in ...
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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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2% HOU -1 (-130)
Create your own -1 as follows:
Risk 1.67% on the ML @ -180
Risk 0.93% on the RL @ +116
Good to -145
FD
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Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Triple Play All-Access Baseball Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every baseball play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49. That's only $16.33 per day for every premium baseball release your handicapper posts. You'll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you get the best possible number before the lin ...
Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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Scoot Henderson OVER 1.5 Made Threes
Henderson is heating up from deep, going over in 5 of his last 6 games. The volume is strong at 6.2 attempts per game, and he’s converting at a solid 39%, which is more than enough to clear a 1.5 line consistently.
The matchup sets up nicely as well. Phoenix tends to focus defensively on the primary scoring threats, and with guys like Camara and Avdija playing well, that should shift attention away from Henderson and open up cleaner looks.
They’re also just middle of the pack—16th in defending the three against point guards—so this isn’t a shutdown matchup by any means.
With solid volume, improving efficiency, and a game script that should free him up, this is a great spot for Henderson to knock down multiple threes again.
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4% NBA SMASH SPOT… 62% Run
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We Cash Tonight. Only $5 — The NBA Run Continues- The NBA has been a consistent money-maker, hitting at a 62% clip, and we’re right back with another Smash Spot. The edge is still there, the numbers are still off, and we’re staying aggressive while it lasts. Only $5 to get in — let’s keep stacking.
4% Tennis Best Bet… White Hot This Year
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Nothing Stops This Train. 12-4 Run | +21 Units in 2026- Tennis has been an absolute bankroll builder in 2026, now sitting at 12-4 for +21 units. The reads have been sharp, the value has been clear, and we’re consistently staying ahead of the market. This Best Bet fits the same winning profile that’s been cashing all year. Let’s keep it rollin ...
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Oskeim Sports
Major League Baseball
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Since 2016, MLB road favorites in Game 1 of a series are 1595-1141 (58.3%), while American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1521-1032 (59.6%; +1% ROI) versus non-divisional opponents, including 940-627 (60%; +1% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +1.3 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 764-483 (61.3%; +1% ROI) during the first two months of the regular season, including 374-223 (62.6%; +2.4% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Let’s also note that non-divisional road favorites of -170 or less with one day of rest are 299-199 (60%; +6.5% ROI) following a home game. Tampa Bay arrives off a 5-4 win over the Yankees, which is significant because the Rays are 400-289 (58.1%; +4.7% ROI) following a win since 2018, winning by an average margin of +0.7 runs per game. Even better, Tampa Bay swept the three-game series over the Yankees, and non-divisional road favorites of -130 to -170 coming off three or more consecutive wins are 93-59 (61.2%; +3.1% ROI) since 2009, including 55-29 (65.5%; +9.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Finally, the Rays are 174-127 (57.8%) as road favorites since 2018, winning by an average of +0.9 runs per game. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 14.
DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD
• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 113-76 | +83.4 Units
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 41-23 (64.1%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 90-59 (60.4%)
• #1 NBA Handicapper (ROI): 29-16 (64.4%)
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NHL HIGH ROLLER | #1 OVERALL (UNITS/WP/ROI): 113-76 | #1 TOP PLAYS: 41-23 | 63% NHL WINNERS
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Jeff Keim was 2-1 yesterday and, on Tuesday, he's STEPPING OUT with a HUGE NHL High Roller backed by his POWERFUL SHARP MONEY sources! Jeff is a documented 22-13 (63%) in the NHL this season!DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 113-76 | +83.4 Units• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 41-23 (64.1%)• #1 Basketball Handicapp ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Don Buster
NHL Hockey
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GOOD TO 170
The Blues look like they will want to play tonight being it their last home game. Pittsburgh at this time has a bunch of players that will not play but at the time of this writing we have not heard about Crosby and Co. At the end of the day we do expect guys like Sid, Malkin and Letang not to play. This line will then skyrocket. We do grab it early. We talk about this game on pucktime today that you can watch on WagerTalk TV at 11 EST.
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BUSTERS NHL RED LIGHT WINNER ONLY $5.
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Join Don Buster for his NHL RED LIGHT WINNER ONLY $5. Buster went 2-0 with his 4% NHL/ MLB DOUBLE PLAY PACKAGE on Monday. Today Buster heads to the ice with a RELEASE IN THE NHL. Its Customer Appreciation Tuesday and you can get this NHL PLAY for ONLY $5. In this package you will get ONE NHL SIDE RELEASE. This release comes with a detailed analysis ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Dwayne Bryant
Major League Baseball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play ON underdogs smaller than +130 if they lost their last game as an underdog, had more hits in that loss than their season average, and today's starter produced a Quality Start in his last outing.
Applies to St. Louis.
46-25 (65%) since 5/9/2024, good for a 38% ROI.
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66-40 62% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP SIDE | $5
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Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +99.92 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 units#1 in NBA profit since last season at +183.92 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Top Side is backed by a strong situational angle that has produced a money-making 66-40 record since the 2007 season, good for a profitable 62.3% wi ...
81% + 73% ANGLES | 4% NBA TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +99.92 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 units#1 in NBA totals profit since last season at +69.81 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Top Total is backed by a pair of powerful situational angles that have produced highly profitable records of 21-5 and 78-29, good for elite wi ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Marco D'Angelo
Major League Baseball
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Look for Atlanta to get to Miami starter Max Meyer who has allowed 6 runs in 14 innings of work over his 3 starts. Meyer has had control problems as his K/BB in his L2 starts is 10-6in just 9 2/3 innings of work. Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings of work. Making this a 1st 5 Inning wager and taking the bullpens out of the equation.
TAKE ATLANTA -0.5 1st 5 Innings
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GOING FOR 8 IN A ROW - 4% IL GAME OF WEEK JUST $5
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7-0 L4 DAYS!! Marco is on an absolute roll as his 3% NHL UPSET SHOCKER on SAN JOSE WON 3-2 making it 7 WINNERS IN A ROW! Today Marco is releasing his 4% INTERLEAGUE GAME OF THE WEEK. Marco has only had 9 plays this Baseball Season but he's 8-1 on the Season. Marco's 4% PLAYS are 33-17 the L50.. Marco isn't just winning his Big Plays ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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For only $49, you’ll get every play your handicapper releases for Saturday and Sunday across ALL SPORTS — including any Top-Rated 5% Best Bets.Lock in early, and you’ll receive instant access to any selections released during the week for Saturday or Sunday. If your handicapper posts a play on Tuesday for a Saturday matchup, you get it immedi ...
Carmine Bianco
NHL Hockey
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NHL - Anaheim Ducks at Minnesota Wild
PROMO: USE CODE PUCKTIME50 TO GET $50 OFF THE REST OF THE NHL SEASON + PLAYOFFS
Game Thoughts: The fact the Ducks are favored here should at least highlight the importance of this game to them and the lack there of for the Wild. Minnesota are locked into the #3 seed in the Central Division and will play Dallas in the opening round are are likely to sit some of their top guns in tonight's game. The Ducks are in the playoffs but with two games left they can at the very least guarantee themselves the #2 seed in the Pacific with 2 wins and if somehow the Vegas Knights lose their final game in regulation to the Kraken that would allow the Ducks to win the division with back to back wins. While the line is minimal at -125 in this one, we'll look to capitalize on the puckline with the following players scheduled to be rested for the Wild. Boldy, Hughes, Eriksson, Faber, Hartman, Kiprizov, Foligno, Zuccarello, and Spurgeon.
The play is Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +200
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TUESDAY 5% CHAMPIONS LEAGUE BLITZ : $35.00
5% CHAMPIONS LEAGUE KNOCKOUT STAGE PLAY Soccer action is up for Tuesday with a 5% CHAMPIONS LEAGUE KO PLAY. It's Leg 2 action of the Quarterfinals of the Champions League tournament and after an easy 5% winner in Leg 1 action, Carmine Bianco has one loaded for clients on Tuesday. Get this play with analysis now for one great price and as alway ...
TUESDAY $5 NHL CUSTOMER APPRECIATION BEST BET
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NHL $5 BEST BET. CUSTOMER APPRECIATION DAY Hockey action is up for Tuesday with an NHL MONEY MOVER BEST BET. It's the final 3 days of the NHL season and coming off a 3-0 sweep on the ice on Monday Carmine Bianco has a Best Bet selection up for Tuesday's action. It's $5 Customer Appreciation Day at Wagertalk so get this play for one ...
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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The 9 vs 10 Eastern Conference play-in sees Southeast Division foes Heat and Hornets go at it for the right to advance and play for the #8 seed on Friday. Although Tyler Herro has played in just 33 games this season, we’re going to take him over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists against a Hornets team in which he averaged 42 points + rebounds + assists in two head-to-head matchups. Herro averaged 31 minutes per game this season, but in a win or go home game tonight we could see him push for 40 minutes in which he has averaged 37.6 points + rebounds + assists per 40 minutes this season. There’s no doubt Charlotte has been stingy all season long and their crowd will be amped up as they attempt to make the playoffs for the first time in ten years, but Herro is no stranger to these games putting up 47 points + rebounds + assists in last season’s 9 vs 10 play-in at Chicago then 45 points + rebounds + assists in the 8th seed game at Atlanta. Sure, Bam Adebayo will see his fair share of usage inside but look for Herro to be the focal point of this team tonight going over 30.5 points + rebounds + assists in Charlotte against the Hornets.
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$5 TUESDAY NBA PLAY-IN "CLUB 70" (4%) TOTAL **65-43 RUN
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Congrats to the many who enjoyed yesterday's 5% wire-to-wire blowout winner on Texas. On a 55.43 units big play run, The GoldSheet team follows it up with one of their powerful "CLUB 70" selections, a total monster from Tuesday's play-in games.TGS is a scorching 65-43 (+65.68 units) with their totals, the #1 O/U record since Chr ...
2026/2027 Early-Bird Football/Basketball GoldSheet Combo
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Lock in the lowest available price for next year's newsletter during this special early-bird release.Join the country's longest-running sports betting newsletter for another informative season on the gridiron and hardwood.
*38-13 RUN!* MLB (4%) PINNACLE! (#1 BIG GAME RECORD!) -- ONLY $5!
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Off yesterday's blowout winner on Texas, The GoldSheet is 13-5 (+19.3) to start the baseball season. Since last summer, their baseball is a brilliant 54-23 (+91.75). That includes an eye-popping 38-13 with plays rated 4% and higher --- the #1 BIG GAME MLB RECORD on the network. Grab today's big 4% winner for ONLY $5!
Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on Miami.
The Heat know a thing or two about advancing from the 10 seed in the play-in, they did it just last season. This team has playoff experience, with starters and a head coach who own championship rings. Erik Spoelstra is the NBA active games leader for a head coach, with a pair of rings and six finals appearances. The Hornets have a bunch of kids, and a head coach who was the assistant in Boston a couple years ago. No way I can lay points with Charlotte here!
GL,
Jesse Schule
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($5) NBA BEAST of the EAST - 10-1 (91%) LAST 11 NBA PICKS!: $5.00
ARE YOU READY???The NBA Playoffs are right around the corner, and when it comes to betting the post season in The Association you won't find a more consistent handicapper than Jesse Schule. Over the last 5 seasons, he's 202-158 showing a STAGGERING +64 UNITS OF PROFIT with all NBA Playoff picks!NBA PLAYOFFS 2025: 44-42, -9.8 UNITSNBA PLAY ...
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Tokyo Brandon
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Verified starter: Noah Schultz for Chicago, not “CHW.” The live probable-pitcher boards list Shane McClanahan vs. Noah Schultz for Rays at White Sox on April 14, 2026..
Projected score: TBR 4.2, CHW 2.9
Projected first 5 innings: TBR 2.4, CHW 1.3
The model leans Tampa Bay from the stronger offense, the deeper known starter baseline, and a major gap in recent run production. The market is roughly Tampa Bay -135 / Chicago +115 with a total around 7.5. Weather is warm for April with crosswind and some rain risk, so the park does not suppress scoring as much as a normal cold Chicago night would.
Tampa Bay’s offensive split versus left-handed pitching is modest but still usable at about .631 OPS, while the White Sox have been worse against lefties at about .600 OPS. Recent offense separates the teams more clearly: Tampa Bay is 6-4 over its last 10 with a .668 OPS and 39 runs, while Chicago has only 22 runs over its last 10 and a very poor recent OPS profile around .606 over the broader recent sample.
Shane McClanahan has the better known major-league baseline. His live probable-pitcher line is 0-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 K, and his recent outing against the Cubs was 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K. Schultz is making his MLB debut here, so the projection uses a shorter leash and more conservative efficiency estimate. That unknown keeps Tampa Bay from projecting as a much larger favorite.
There is no meaningful, trustworthy within-window batter-vs-pitcher sample to weight heavily for either side. No usable 2025-26 McClanahan-vs-White Sox start surfaced in the live search, and Schultz has no MLB track record yet. That means the BvP component is close to neutral rather than a real driver here. The bigger pitching context is bullpen-related, and that actually leans Chicago: over the last 10 games, the White Sox own the best team ERA in MLB at 2.53 with a 1.10 WHIP, while the Rays sit around 4.10 ERA over the same span.
The recent bullpen edge keeps the White Sox from collapsing late in the projection, but the lineup gap is still stronger than the bullpen gap. Chicago also returns home after the Kansas City road series, which creates a small flat-spot deduction on the bats. Tampa Bay is continuing its trip and avoids that specific home-return penalty. The no-bottom-of-the-ninth adjustment trims a little from Chicago’s late scoring because Chicago is the home underdog and less likely to bat in the ninth.
Calculation summary
Component | TBR | CHW |
|---|---|---|
Base offense vs SP hand | 3.9 | 3.1 |
Starter quality / expected IP | +0.4 | -0.2 |
Bullpen / recent run prevention | -0.1 | +0.3 |
Home/away + travel | +0.1 | -0.2 |
Weather / park | -0.1 | -0.1 |
BvP / uncertainty | +0.0 | +0.0 |
Projected runs | 4.2 | 2.9 |
Boxscore projection
Split | TBR | CHW |
|---|---|---|
First 5 innings | 2.4 | 1.3 |
Full game | 4.2 | 2.9 |
Starting pitcher projection
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shane McClanahan | 5 1/3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
Noah Schultz | 4 1/3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Projected hitter box
Projected lineups currently show Tampa Bay with Yandy Díaz, Ryan Vilade, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca, Nick Fortes, Cedric Mullins, Taylor Walls and Chicago with Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Munetaka Murakami, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery, T. Murray, Luis Acuña, Derek Hill plus the remaining lineup slot around the current regular mix.
Tampa Bay
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yandy Díaz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ryan Vilade | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jonathan Aranda | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Junior Caminero | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ben Williamson | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jonny DeLuca | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nick Fortes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Cedric Mullins | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Taylor Walls | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Chicago
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Vargas | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Chase Meidroth | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Munetaka Murakami | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Edgar Quero | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Colson Montgomery | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
T. Murray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Luis Acuña | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Derek Hill | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Remaining lineup spot | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wager & Probability Analysis
Using the projected 4.2 to 2.9 score distribution:
Tampa Bay win probability: 61.9%
Chicago win probability: 38.1%
Fair moneyline: TBR -162 / CHW +162
Moneyline
Team | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus implied % | Edge vs consensus | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TBR | 61.9% | -162 | -135 | 57.4% | +4.5% | Value | 3 |
CHW | 38.1% | +162 | +115 | 46.5% | -8.4% | No value | 3 |
Consensus odds and total were showing roughly TBR -135 / CHW +115 and 7.5, with some books shading the total under and others sitting at over 7.0 -135.
Totals
Projected full-game total is 7.1. Projected first-5 total is 3.7.
Market | Model total | Model over % | Fair over | Consensus over | Over edge | Over value | Model under % | Fair under | Consensus under | Under edge | Under value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
First 5 O/U 4.0* | 3.7 | 39.8% | +151 | -110* | negative | No value | 60.2% | -151 | -110* | +7.8% | Value: Under | 3 |
Full game O/U 7.5 | 7.1 | 42.6% | +135 | -105 | negative | No value | 57.4% | -135 | -115 | +3.9% | Value: Under | 3 |
Full game O/U 7.0 | 7.1 | 47.9% | +109 | -135 | negative | No value | 52.1% | -109 | -105 | slight | Thin under value | 2 |
*A clean live first-5 total was not surfaced on the accessible market pages, so 4.0 is used as the working comparison line for a low-total game with two lefties and an MLB debut arm. The full-game total range is directly surfaced.
Tokyo’s Clutch Index
A reliable live table for team OPS with a runner on 3rd base and fewer than 2 outs did not surface in a clean team-by-team format, so no exact 1-30 ranking is stated rather than inventing values. The surfaced live search returned a different situational scoring table instead of the requested OPS split.
Ranking panel
1) Today’s starting pitchers, ERA + WHIP curved rank among starters with 14+ innings
Neither starter qualifies for the requested 14+ inning threshold on current MLB 2026 volume. McClanahan is at 8.2 IP and Schultz is making his debut. Both are NR for the strict qualified-starter ranking.
Pitcher | IP | ERA | WHIP | Qualified? | Curved 1-30 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shane McClanahan | 8.2 | 4.15 | 1.15 | No | NR |
Noah Schultz | 0.0 | — | — | No | NR |
2) Team bullpen last 10 days, ERA + WHIP combined rank
Team | Last-10 ERA | Last-10 WHIP | Curved 1-30 rank |
|---|---|---|---|
CHW | 2.53 | 1.10 | 1 |
TBR | 4.10 | roughly mid-tier recent profile | 18 |
Chicago’s recent run prevention has been the best in baseball over the last 10 games, while Tampa Bay has been much more ordinary.
3) Lineup run production last 10 days, runs + quality metric
A full live runs + wOBA table was not cleanly exposed, so the nearest surfaced proxy is runs + OPS over the last 10.
Team | Runs last 10 | OPS last 10 / recent proxy | Curved 1-30 rank |
|---|---|---|---|
TBR | 39 | .668 | 13 |
CHW | 22 | roughly .606 recent proxy | 28 |
Tampa Bay has been the clearly better recent offense.
Best model leans: Tampa Bay moneyline, full-game under 7.5, first-5 under 4.0 proxy.
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Will Rogers
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Free Pick on New York Mets - RUN LINE | Good until +1.5 , -150.
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Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET
Play: Barcelona to win by exactly 2 goals
Odds at Time of Release: +420
Line Parameter: Line good to +400
After winning by 2-0 on the road last week, Atletico Madrid are now -326 to Qualify, and Barcelona are +266, so there's a value bet right there.
As for Regulation, Atletico Madrid are +280 underdogs, the Draw is at +350 and Barca are -125 favourites, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total at 3.5 goals.
First of all, that 2-goal lead for Atletico from the first leg is tricky as hell, and let me explain why. It's not a big margin which would mean that Atletico would park the bus in the second leg at home and wait for time to run out. It's a very manageable margin for Barcelona to cover, and if Atletico Madrid go with a destructive, defensive mindset, it could really backfire here. On the other hand, if they play more offensively so as to take advantage of the gaps that Barca will inadvertently leave behind, this could also backfire. So it's a very tricky match for Atletico, despite winning by 2 goals on the road.
Spread is tricky, as Atletico can lose by 1 goal and still qualify, so I am passing on sides. If you feel Barca have a chance, you can easily take their -125 ML, that's not a bad price. I'm staying away from sides, although Barcelona are one of the few teams in the world capable of overturning a 2-goal deficit on the road, and at +420 I'm willing to take the risk.
Take 1% on Barcelona to win by exactly 2 goals (+420 FanDuel), line good to +400
NOTE: You can find this prop at FanDuel, scroll down to find "Winning Margin" and pick Barcelona to win by exactly 2 goals (+420). At DraftKings this prop is found under the "Match Props" tab, scroll down to find "Winning Margin".
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Though these teams were off on Monday, we saw a lot of scoring across MLB last night and this matchup on the mound hardly suggests a pitching duel tonight.
Cole Ragans (5.91 ERA) has had a bit of a bumpy go for the Royals while losing his first three starts and couldn’t even get out of the first inning last Wednesday at Cleveland in an eventual 10-2 loss to the Guardians. Meanwhile, so far not so overwhelming for Framber Valdez in his new Tigers uniform, especially last Wednesday vs. the Twins when allowing 8 runs and 10 htis across just 5 IP of an eventual 8-6 loss.
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Pavlos Laguretos
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Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Champions League, Tuesday, 3pm ET
Play: Red Card Shown
Odds at Time of Release: +290 MGM
Line Parameter: Line good to +250
After winning by 2-0 on the road last week, Atletico Madrid are now -326 to Qualify, and Barcelona are +266, so there's a value bet right there.
As for Regulation, Atletico Madrid are +280 underdogs, the Draw is at +350 and Barca are -125 favourites, with the Spread at 0.75 and the Total at 3.5 goals.
Spread is tricky, as Atletico can lose by 1 goal and still qualify, so I am passing on sides. If you feel Barca have a chance, you can easily take their -125 ML, that's not a bad price. I'm staying away from sides.
Total is tricky as well at 3.5, as it all depends on how Atletico Madrid will approach this game. We have absolutely NO idea what coach Simeone will deploy on Tuesday, so I'd rather wait for lineups to come out and then have a better idea on what to bet.
This situation is good for cards, as Atletico Madrid will surely kick Barca here and there trying to keep them off, but this referee is not exactly good for cards. In fact, he is BAD for cards, and the Card Total is set at 5.5. Doable, but this referee tends to talk to players and trying to calm them down, and has not carded players in situations where he should.
And that creates some different dynamic in the pitch, as players think that they can get away with hard tackles, and they tend to get carried away, so I think there are many scenarios for a Red Card, which is +290 MGM.
3 red cards in 4 H2H matches in 2026 alone, and all of them were straight reds (not second yellows). In fact, there have been 7 Red Cards in L/15 H2H, and ALL 7 were straight reds.
And going back to this referee, he has given out 7 red cards in 26 matches this season, ALL 7 were straight reds. Again, he has very low card averages, around 4/game, he doesn't punish players a lot, players think they can get away with it, game turns to a brawl and they are forcing the ref's hand to show a direct red card.
Card Totals in H2H: 6/10/4/10/2/8/4/4/2/6/9/11/9/6/3
Red Cards in H2H: Y/Y/N/Y/N/N/N/N/N/Y/N/N/2/Y/N
Take 2% on Red Card in the Match (+290 MGM), line good to +225
Released/revised 1 day(s) ago
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