Free Sports Predictions MAR 25: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Cristopher Sánchez is lined up for the Phillies’ home opener against Texas on Thursday, March 26, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park, with Nathan Eovaldi opposing him. Parsed odds pages show a 5.5 strikeout prop for Sánchez, with DraftKings showing the Over at -138; the opposite side on the parsed odds feed was not cleanly book-labeled, but the same market block showed the other side around +105.

1) All starts between 3/1/2025 and 3/26/2026 vs all teams
Sánchez had 212 strikeouts in 32 starts in the 2025 regular season.
All-start K/start average = 212 / 32 = 6.625.

2) Starts vs Texas between 3/1/2025 and 3/26/2026
His 2025 game log shows a start at Texas on 8/8/2025 with 6 strikeouts in 6.0 innings.
Vs. Texas K/start average = 6.0

3) March starts between 3/1/2025 and 3/26/2026 vs all teams
His 2025 game log shows one March regular-season start, 3/31/2025 vs Colorado, with 7 strikeouts in 5.1 innings.
March K/start average = 7.0.

Weighted base projection

6.3875

Weighted base = 6.4 Ks.

Split adjustments

Home adjustment
FanGraphs splits show Sánchez had 115 strikeouts in 97.2 home innings in 2025, which corresponds to 15 home starts and a home K/start average of 115 / 15 = 7.67. His full-season average was 6.63, so his home split was +1.04 Ks/start above overall. To avoid double-counting location that is already partly embedded in the season average, I apply half that delta:

Ballpark adjustment
None. This is a home start.

Day/night adjustment
This is a day game. I could verify the game time, but I could not cleanly extract a trustworthy parsed 2025 day/night strikeout split for Sánchez from public pages without risking bad data, so I used a 0.0 adjustment instead of inventing one. The game being a day start is confirmed.

Fatigue / injury adjustment
I’m treating fatigue as neutral (0.0). There is no current opener reporting that he is returning from an MLB injury, and he was already being reported as Philadelphia’s Opening Day starter. His most recent competitive outing visible in public reports was March 13 in the WBC quarterfinal, which leaves ample rest before March 26..

Final projection

6.9075

Final projection: 6.9 strikeouts

As matchup context only, not as an extra adjustment, Texas struck out 23.6% of the time against left-handed pitching in 2025, which is consistent with a projection above 5.5.

Probability and fair odds

• Over 5.5: 68.6%

• Under 5.5: 31.4%

Converted to fair American odds:

• Over 5.5 fair: -219

• Under 5.5 fair: +219

Wager & Probability Analysis chart

Fair-odds vs DK chart

Betting takeaway

My model lands on Cristopher Sánchez 6.9 Ks, so it is clearly over the DraftKings number of 5.5. The three-weight structure is already favorable at 6.4, and his 2025 home split pushes it materially higher. The matchup-specific start vs Texas was 6 Ks, his lone March start in the window was 7 Ks, and Texas’ 2025 strikeout rate vs lefties was not low. The only thing keeping this from a 5/5 confidence play is that it is Opening Day, where pitch counts can be a little less predictable.

Best wager: Over 5.5 strikeouts
Projection: 6.9
Fair line: -219
DraftKings line used: 5.5, Over -138

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

In with a season win total to start the 2026 MLB season. One of the best times of the year with Opening Day upon us. The angle with the Tigers to the over is a down American League Central Division combined with Tarik Skubal going for his third Cy Young award in a row. This is also not just a one man rotation with former 1st overall pick Casey Mize behind him, plus Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty. Even Justin Verlander to eat up some innings.

The lineup looks strong with Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Kerry Carpenter and highly touted rookie Kevin McGonigle. I have the Tigers winning the AL Central and flirting with 90+ wins this season. For the 2026 best season win total free pick- Bet Detroit Over 85.5 Season Wins.

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Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Illinois arrives in the Sweet 16 Round of the NCAA Tournament off a dominating 76-55 win over VCU, which is significant because college basketball underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed 60 points or fewer are 144-105-3 ATS (57.8%) in the NCAA Tournament. Similarly, NCAA Tournament teams entering off a game in which they allowed 55 points or fewer are 152-118-2 ATS (56.3%), including 81-49 ATS (62.3%) as underdogs. Houston ranks third in the nation in Points Per Game Allowed (62.2), but college basketball favorites allowing fewer than 63 points per game are just 91-118-2 ATS (43.5%) in NCAA Tournament affairs. Meanwhile, Illinois is one of the most reliable teams from the free-throw line, ranking fifth nationally at 78.4%. That metric is important because college basketball teams priced between -6 and +6 shooting 77% or better from the charity stripe are 48-36 ATS (57.1%) in the NCAA Tournament. Let’s also note that Big 12 Conference teams are 9-18 ATS (33.3%) in the Sweet 16 Round over the last twelve years, while Houston head coach Kelvin Sampson is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS from the Sweet 16 forward. The Big Ten Conference has gone 34-19 ATS (64.2%) in the NCAA Tournament over the past three years, including 11-5 ATS (68.8%) this season, the best mark of any conference. Grab the points with the Illinois Fighting Illini as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 26.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

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Core input snapshot

Chicago’s 2025 offensive baseline was much stronger. The Cubs averaged 4.83 runs/game at home in 2025 and posted a .751 OPS vs left-handed pitching. Washington averaged 4.24 runs/game overall in 2025, scored 368 runs in 81 road games (about 4.54/game) with a .705 away OPS, and had just a .639 OPS vs left-handed pitching.

The starter gap leans heavily toward Chicago. Cavalli went 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA in 10 starts in 2025, while Boyd went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 2025. Boyd was 12-1 at home with a 2.51 ERA in 2025 home starts, while Cade Cavalli’s road ERA was around 6.2 in his 2025 road sample.

For late-form proxies from 2025, the Cubs’ bullpen had a 2.69 ERA over its last 10 games, while the Nationals’ offense scored 4.4 runs/game over its last 10 and the Cubs scored 3.2 runs/game over their last 10. That gives Washington a mild recent-offense proxy edge, but Chicago still owns the stronger full-season baseline and the better starting-pitcher setup here.

Projected WSN runs = 2.8

Projected CHC runs = 5.8

Score projection

Starting pitcher box score projections

Projected hitter lines

Nationals

Cubs

Wager & Probability Analysis

Full game total

• Over 8.5: 51.7%

• Under 8.5: 48.3%

Fair odds:

• Over 8.5: -107

• Under 8.5: +107

First 5 innings total

If a book posts 4.5, the fair prices are roughly:

Bottom line

Projected score: Cubs 5.8, Nationals 2.8.
Best side: Cubs ML, but only small value at -201 versus my fair line of about -220.
Totals: I’m close to neutral, with only a slight full-game over lean if the market sits 8.5 and the juice is cheap.
Most important driver: the combo of Boyd’s 2025 home dominance, Washington’s weak 2025 production vs lefties, and Cavalli’s shakier road sample..

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

85.7% (6-1) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

71.4% (10-4) CBB RUN!

5% TOP PLAY UP FOR THURSDAY!

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Take Arizona (#620)

Arizona has been as elite as elite gets in the College Basketball world this season; a worthy #1 seed and a team I believe has ‘win the whole enchilada’ potential.  Arkansas got hot down the stretch, and they’ve got a head coach in John Calipari who has won a previous title (and reached six previous Final Fours); a coach who comes with a massive reputation (and a modest pointspread ‘tax’) attached to that reputation.  Yet even with Calipari’s track record and Arkansas’ ‘hot now’ status, the Razorbacks are still the second biggest underdog on the board in the Sweet 16.  That speaks volumes about how good Arizona is – especially defending the low post; bad news for potential #1 draft choice Darius Acuff’s ability to drive and dish.  And it’s surely worth noting that when Arkansas lost this year, their STRONG tendency was to lose by margin; just 2-6 ATS in their eight defeats.  Take Arizona.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Texas reached the Sweet 16 Round by virtue of three consecutive upset wins over North Carolina State (68-66), BYU (79-71), and Gonzaga (74-68) as 1.5-point, 2.5-point, and 6.5-point underdogs, respectively. Those results are significant for three reasons. First, NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they covered the spread by double-digits are 71-49-2 ATS (59.2%). Second, NCAA Tournament teams coming off back-to-back upset wins as underdogs are 31-16 ATS (66%) from Round 3 forward. Third, NCAA Tournament underdogs coming off three or more consecutive ATS wins are 46-24-2 ATS (65.7%) from Round 3 out since 2012. Since 2012, NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 favorites of -5 or more are 19-27 ATS (41.3%), including 8-13 ATS (38.1%) since 2020, and have fallen short of market expectations by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. Purdue head coach Matt Painter has enjoyed success during the early stages of the NCAA Tournament, going 23-7 ATS in the Round of 64 and 32, but he’s just 5-7 ATS in the Sweet 16 or later. Finally, Texas head coach Sean Miller has been an underdog in the NCAA Tournament fifteen times, and has gone 11-4 ATS in those contests, including a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in this year’s tournament. Grab the points with the Texas Longhorns as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, March 26.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

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Total Under 2.0 (106)...(3%) - thru Under 2 (-110)

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

After 42+ games, Play ON road underdogs averaging 114-118 points per game that allowed 115 or more points in 2 straight games and are facing an opponent averaging 108-114 points per game.

Applies to Toronto.

36-15-1 ATS (71%) since the 2021 season.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

 We’re all familiar with Tom Izzo, and we all know that there’s really no one better at getting their team prepared for March. Sparty won 6 of their last 7 games to close out the regular season and have handled both North Dakota State and Louisville rather easily. MSU’s metrics are very strong – they’re balanced on both sides of the ball, coming in at 13^th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 22^nd on offense. MSU also controls the glass. Michigan State has the #1 defensive rebounding percentage in the nation and they’re top 10 on offense. UConn is going to bring a fight, but the fact is, MSU has the better athletes. The Spartans are a live dog here and we’ll put them in our pocket. Take Michigan State.

85.7% (6-1) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

71.4% (10-4) CBB RUN!

5% CBB TOP PLAY UP FOR THURSDAY!

Released/revised 21 hour(s) ago

At first glance, Arkansas jumps off the page — 97 and 94 points in their first two tournament games, catching +7.5 or 8, and it’s tempting to grab the dog.

But the issue with Arkansas is simple: they don’t defend. They give up points almost as quickly as they score them. That works against teams like Hawaii and High Point — it doesn’t work against a team like Arizona.

Arizona is built differently. They’re balanced on both ends — they can score, but more importantly, they defend at a high level.

They’ve held 15 of their last 19 opponents under 41.5% shooting.

Over their last 12 games, no opponent has cracked 80, and 7 of those were held under 70.

After dealing with Utah State’s slow, methodical style, this matchup actually sets up even better for Arizona. Arkansas wants to push tempo — but that plays right into Arizona’s hands.

When you’re elite on both ends like Arizona, a faster pace only widens the gap. More possessions means more chances to execute, and ultimately, more opportunities to extend the lead.

TAKE ARIZONA

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

It's never wise to read too much into spring training results. However, one doesn't want to discount them entirely either. Liberatore, St. Louis's expected starter, had a sparkling 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four spring starts, striking out 19 in 15 innings. He walked only two. Liberatore noted: "That's two too many." He delivered five shutout innings in his final spring start. On the other hand, Rasmussen had a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his four spring starts. He got rocked for 11 hits and eight runs (7 earned) in his final spring start. The Cards were 44-37 at home last season while the Rays were 36-45 on the road. In the first ever opening day meeting between these teams, let's go with the home underdog Cardinals.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The White Sox finished 27^th last season in both batting average and runs scored and are trying to avoid a 4^th straight 100 loss season. With a win total sitting at just 67.5, this year will mainly be about evaluating prospects for the future. Shane Smith may have a nice fastball, but his 2025 chase rate is was in the dump and he had a hard hit percentage of 45.4%.

The Brewers won the NL Central for the 3^rd straight season and are looking to run it back, starting with flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski in the opener. Misiorowski had a 32% K rate last season with a whiff% near the top of the league. A wOBA of .322 was good for a top 10 finish offensively for the Brew Crew, who finished 3^rd in all of baseball in runs scored. Take the Brewers RL.

85.7% (6-1) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

71.4% (10-4) CBB RUN!

5% CBB TOP PLAY UP FOR THURSDAY!

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

[FREE PICK] on Purdue - ATS | Good until -9.5.

Texas enters the Sweet Sixteen as the only double-digit seed left, thanks largely to its ability to win close games late. However, I think that it's going to be different this time around. The Longhorns have had issues defending the three-point line, which is a dangerous weakness against a Purdue team that thrives from deep. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in three-point shooting, giving them a massive advantage with the ball in their hands in this game. If Purdue finds its rhythm, it should be able to exploit Texas all game long. Add in a solid defensive performance, which the Boilermakers are most definitely capable of, and this could turn into a blowout.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago