Free Sports Predictions MAR 20: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Japanese Spring games AVAILABLE ON DRAFTKINGS!

Spencer Howard is confirmed for Yomiuri, but I could not verify Rakuten’s official announced starter from the accessible sources but it looks like Kose Itsuki. This is open-season play at Tokyo Dome on March 21, with the 2026 preseason ending March 22 and the regular season opening March 27, so I’m assuming slightly shorter starter leashes than a regular-season NPB game.

Outline of reasoning and calculations

1) Starting-point data I weighted most

• Giants at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 210 runs scored, 174 allowed in 64 games = 3.28 RS / 2.72 RA per game.

• Giants home in March/April 2025: 49 RS, 30 RA in 13 games = 3.77 / 2.31.

• Giants home on Saturdays in 2025: 54 RS, 34 RA in 14 games = 3.86 / 2.43.

• Rakuten away in 2025: 222 RS, 278 RA in 71 games = 3.13 / 3.92.

• Rakuten away in March/April 2025: 42 RS, 36 RA in 13 games = 3.23 / 2.77.

• Rakuten away on Saturdays in 2025: 33 RS, 64 RA in 13 games = 2.54 / 4.92.

• Rakuten at Tokyo Dome in 2025: 10 RS, 17 RA in 5 games = 2.00 / 3.40.

2) Baseline run model

• Giants scoring baseline
  Weighted blend of Giants home/Tokyo Dome/March-Saturday offense plus Rakuten road/Tokyo Dome prevention = 3.6575 runs.

• Rakuten scoring baseline
  Weighted blend of Rakuten road/March-Saturday offense plus Giants home/Tokyo Dome prevention = 2.698 runs.

3) Starter layer

• Howard: 2025 official NPB line was 9 appearances, 48.2 IP, 42 H, 11 BB, 36 K, 2.22 ERA. He is confirmed to start this game and is facing his former team Rakuten, which means there is no real 2025 official batter-vs-pitcher game sample of Howard against the current Rakuten lineup to lean on; that “familiarity” is mostly from being former teammates, not opponent BvP data.

• Kose probable-starter scenario: 2025 line was 19 G, 18 GS, 107.0 IP, 118 H, 27 BB, 76 K, 3.70 ERA. His last verified spring outing was March 15 vs Chunichi: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 5 K, 2 BB, 4 ER. Because Rakuten’s official 3/21 starter was not cleanly verifiable, I treated Kose as the most plausible fit but not as confirmed.

4) Bullpen layer

Historically, both clubs’ March/April bullpens were solid in 2025: Giants relievers had a 2.55 ERA, Rakuten relievers a 2.76 ERA. But the March 20 exhibition matters: Rakuten used 5 relievers after Shoji, while Yomiuri used 4 relievers after Takemaru. That pushes my full-game total a little higher than the first-5 total, especially late if Howard exits after 4-5 innings.

5) Lineup/form layer

I used the March 20 starters as the likely lineup core because I could not verify official March 21 lineups from the accessible sources. On March 20, Yomiuri started Cabbage, Matsumoto Go, Urata, Dalbec, Kishida, Nakayama, Sakamoto, Masuda, with the pitcher batting 9th; Rakuten started Nakajima, Kurokawa, Voit, McCusker, Murabayashi, Asamura, Muneyama, Gonzalez, Ota with the DH. In that same game, Asamura homered again, while Yomiuri’s preseason form indicators were strong for Kishida (.583) and Masuda (.667). Through March 20, the Giants were 9-4-1 in open-season play and Rakuten 3-9-5.

6) Head-to-head / park / travel adjustments

The 2025 Yomiuri-Rakuten Tokyo Dome set was low scoring: Rakuten won 2-0 on June 6 behind Howard, then Yomiuri won 2-0 on June 7 and 5-0 on June 8. That supports a modest total again. Tokyo Dome removes almost all meaningful outdoor-weather effect. Rakuten’s schedule also shows a Belluna-to-Tokyo road swing (3/17-18 at Belluna, 3/20-22 at Tokyo Dome), which is some travel but not a major fatigue spike. Because Yomiuri is home, there is also a small chance the bottom of the 9th is not played, which trims their full-game offensive ceiling slightly.

7) Final numerical adjustments

• Giants baseline: 3.66

• Rakuten baseline: 2.70

Projected score

Projected starting-pitcher game lines

Projected hitter lines

These are projected box-score-style medians for the likely starting lineups based on March 20 usage, so they will not sum perfectly to the decimal score projection above.

giant

Rakuten

Bottom line

• 1st 5: Giants 2.1 – 1.2

• Full game: Giants 3.5 – 2.7

• Lean: Giants, with the bigger edge in the first 5 because Howard’s confirmed start is the cleanest pitcher input in the matchup.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Tagging this one in the Free Play because it’s a late game but I hit most of the slate with Matt Winick

5% play is up on my page. FCP replay below!

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

I know the expectation is that Dan Hurley, who is an incredible 14-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament the L3 years, will have UConn "ready to roll" after a humiliating loss (to St. John's) in the Big East Tournament Final. But this particular edition of the Huskies really isn't anywhere close to the groups that captured National Titles in both 2023 and 2024.

This is a big number to be laying, considering UConn plays slow (323rd in adjusted tempo) and often bogs down offensively. We're also talking about catching 20+ points in a game where the total is < 140.

Don't be fooled by the fact Furman finished sixth in the SoCon during the regular season. They were dealing with injuries. The Paladins seem to be peaking at the right time as they averaged an impressive 1.2 PPP in the conference tournament. They have size (all five starters are at least 6'4") and as a result shoot 66% on close-twos. With some decent three-point shooting, I see no reason that the underdog doesn't stay within this generous number.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

This O/U line is high -- but likely not high enough. High Point just scored 83 against Wisconsin, allowing 82. The Panthers averaged a whopping 93.8 ppg in the regular season. They've played 34 games and they scored more than 70 every time. Now the Panthers take on an Arkansas team which also averaged more than 90 ppg during the season. The Razorbacks just dropped 97 on Hawaii in the opening rd, the sixth straight time they've scored more than 80. Expect a fast-paced high-scoring affair. *good up to 170

Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper of All-Time. He enters Friday with a perfect 4-0 tournament record and on a 12-2 CBB run overall, part of a longer-term +314 unit hoops heater.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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• Projected winner: Brewers

  Team	Win %	Fair American odds	Book odds	Value vs book
  Brewers	53%	-113	-110	Small value on MIL (+3 cents)
  Diamondbacks	47%	+113	-110	Negative value on ARI (-23 cents)

  Projected score: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4

  Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitching edge available pregame because of Jacob Misiorowski as the Brewers’ starter while Arizona’s starter is still undecided. Misiorowski’s spring line entering this game was 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.1 IP, and 12 strikeouts, and MLB had already flagged him as one of Milwaukee’s rotation locks with a realistic path to an Opening Day start.

  On batter form and lineup quality, Milwaukee looks a bit stronger. MLB’s projected 2026 lineup has Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Rengifo, Mitchell, and Ortiz, and MLB noted this is mostly the same core that ranked second in MLB in OBP and third in runs scored last season. Arizona’s projected lineup is solid with Perdomo, Marte, Carroll, Moreno, Arenado, Santana, Smith, Lawlar, and Thomas, but Carroll is coming off a broken hamate and MLB noted the DH spot is still unsettled during camp.

  Spring form is more favorable to Arizona overall, which is why I only make Milwaukee a narrow favorite. Spring standings show Arizona at 12-12 with 141 runs scored and 170 allowed, while Milwaukee was 10-14 with 122 scored and 122 allowed. Arizona also had the slightly better recent form, but Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile plus the better-known starter narrows that gap fast.

  Bullpen skill is close, but I lean slightly Arizona in late innings. MLB’s projected D-backs bullpen includes Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loáisiga, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson and others, while MLB described Loáisiga and Brandyn Garcia as impressive this spring. Milwaukee’s projected group has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and others, but MLB emphasized there were still “a ton of decisions” to make with that staff.

  Betting value

  • Brewers -110: slight value

  • Diamondbacks -110: no value

  • My fair line is basically Brewers -113 / Diamondbacks +113, so Milwaukee is only a small lean.

  Most likely script

  • Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the better chance to win the first few innings.

  • Arizona’s home lineup keeps pressure on and likely scores enough to make this competitive.

  • Milwaukee’s deeper top-to-middle lineup is the tiebreaker in a spring game with short starter usage.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

High Point showed that they are no joke on Thursday, beating Wisconsin outright as double digit dogs. The Panthers have won 31 games this season and hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 15. They put up 90 per contest and rank top 5 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Chase Johnston was electric off the bench against the Badgers, making an off balance 3-pointer from the logo and going 4 for 6 from deep, with some really clutch shots to close out the game. Arkansas is a great team, they’re just running into a tough matchup against a squad that can really light it up. Whether the Panthers can get the SU win remains to be seen, but we’ll happily put them in our pocket catching double digits once again. Take High Point.

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Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

Missouri will be playing in their home state when they take on Miami in the first round on Friday. The Tigers will hold a significant size advantage in this matchup, and already come in at 38^th in offensive rebounding percentage. Led by Mark Mitchell, Mizzou is also 32^nd in 2-point shooting percentage and they defend inside as well.

What a turnaround it’s been for Miami, who won just 7 games a season ago. Coach Jai Lucas brought in a mixture of Freshman and transfers, completely overhauling the roster for what has been a very successful season. This game will come down to who wins the battle on the boards and free throw shooting, as both squads are terrible at the charity stripe. Expect Mitchell to have a big game as the Tigers move on the to 2^nd round. Take Missouri.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

Free Play: Shem Rock (+110)

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago