Free Sports Predictions AUG 19: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

WTA Cincinnati Doubles Parlay (Final Price -128)
Siniakova/Townsend ML (-475) over Jovic/McNally + Guo/Mladenovic ML (-209) over Kostyuk/Stearns

Siniakova and Townsend had to battle through their opening match after not playing together since July 9, but that may have been exactly what they needed. The rust should be gone now, and we're still talking about one of the top doubles teams in the world. They have the chemistry, experience and overall doubles talent advantage in this matchup. They're also a significant favorite to advance in today's Round of 16 matchup. (Tennis.com)

Jovic and McNally are playing their first tournament together, and neither brings the same level of established partnership. Jovic isn't a Top-80 doubles player, while both players have bounced between different partners. They may have enough talent to compete, but against a team with the chemistry and résumé of Siniakova/Townsend, this is a major step up. With the first match out of the way, expect a much cleaner performance from the favorites.

The second leg backs another legitimate championship-level partnership. Guo and Mladenovic are a full-time team, both ranked near the top of the doubles world, and they've already proven their ceiling by winning Wimbledon together. After suffering an upset in the first round of their previous tournament, they responded exactly how we wanted in Cincinnati with a straight-set opening victory.

Kostyuk and Stearns are playing their first tournament together and needed everything they had to survive the Williams sisters in Round 1, eventually escaping 2-6, 6-1, 10-8. (Reuters) Now they have to step way up in competition against an established elite doubles team. Guo/Mladenovic are also the No. 3 seeds in Cincinnati and are favored to advance from today's matchup. (Tennis.com)

We're backing two elite, proven doubles partnerships against two newly formed teams. Siniakova/Townsend ML + Guo/Mladenovic ML at a final price of -128 is the play.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

We have ourselves an outstanding starting pitching matchup in this one as Brandon Pfaadt goes for Arizona while Peyton Tolle goes for Boston. Since being recalled from Triple-A Reno in late June, Pfaadt has gone 7-0 in his nine starts with a 1.15 ERA. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in all nine starts including ZERO (total!) in the last four! Not to be outdone, Tolle has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last nine outings. The Red Sox are a perfect 7-0 the last 7 times he's taken the mound.

Ketel Marte is still absent from the Arizona lineup, which has produced just five runs in the first two games of this series. It's not just Tolle that the D'backs have to contend with here; the Red Sox bullpen has the lowest ERA in all of MLB at 2.93. While the Boston bats have been on fire the L2 days, the team has still scored fewer runs at home this season than on the road. Pfaadt has allowed only seven runs total in those L9 starts.

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(905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Cincinnati Reds: Chase Burns Strikeouts

Chase Burns Strikeouts Over 6.5 (114) Home Listed Pitcher Must Start

Starting Pitcher Analysis: Burns vs. Cardinals

Burns’ Strong Overall Profile
Burns has been excellent this season with a 2.47 ERA and 1.092 WHIP over 23 starts. He’s been especially sharp lately, holding 4 of his last 5 opponents to one run or fewer, which signals both consistency and current form.

Workload and Efficiency
At home, Burns has posted a 1.98 ERA, and he’s also shown the ability to work deep into games. Over his last 3 starts, he’s covered 18 1/3 innings while averaging 95.3 pitches per outing. That kind of workload suggests he’s not being limited and is staying effective into the later innings.

Strikeout Upside
Burns is averaging 1.15 strikeouts per inning on the season, and that number improves to 1.22 K’s per inning in night starts. He’s also coming off a strong strikeout stretch with 23 strikeouts in his last 3 starts, giving him clear upside in this matchup.

Cardinals’ Recent Contact Issues
The Cardinals have struck out 38 times over their last 4 games, which averages out to 9.5 strikeouts per game. That recent swing-and-miss trend works in Burns’ favor, especially if he’s locating well early in counts.

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Tampa Bay suffered a 10-5 loss to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series, which is significant because division home favorites greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1354-687 SU (66.3%; +1.4% ROI) and +3.0 ROI against the run line, including 458-208 SU (68.8%; +3.6% ROI) and 349-317 RL (+7.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game. Moreover, large home favorites with immediate revenge are 864-365 SU (70.3% ROI) and 560-506 RL (+4.4% ROI), winning by an average of 1.7 runs per game. The Rays are 56-14 SU (80%; +26.3% ROI) and 36-34 RL (+13.3% ROI) as home favorites of greater than -140 following a game in which they allowed six or more runs versus the same opponent, winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs per game. Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen toes the rubber with a 2.78 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.93 FIP, and a 3.19 xFIP, together with elite 9.26 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 rates. The talented 31-year-old is 4-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 14 appearances against the Blue Jays in his career. I also like the fact that Rasmussen is 33-16 SU (67.3%; +8.8% ROI) and 26-23 RL (+14.1% ROI) as a favorite of -130 or greater in his career.

Meanwhile, Toronto starter Max Scherzer takes the mound with a 6.59 ERA, 4.69 xERA, 6.38 FIP, and a 5.33 XFIP, together with mediocre 6.80 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 rates. The 42-year-old veteran has also been susceptible to the long ball (2.41 HR/9) this season. Finally, Toronto falls into a very negative 3063-5396 (36.2%; -3.7% ROI) and 2601-4624 (36%; -4.2% ROI) systems that date to 2005 and invest against certain road underdogs versus .551 or greater opponents. These situations have lost by an average margin of 1.1 and 1.2 runs per game, respectively. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, August 19.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Benfica vs Aarhus
Europa League, Thursday, 3pm ET

Play: Pavlidis Anytime Goalscorer
Odds at Time of Release: -175 DraftKings
Line Parameter: Line good to -200

Pavlidis is having an insane start to the season with 9 goals in 5 matches, he just scored a hattrick within SEVEN minutes in Benfica's 7-0 win against Casa Pia over the weekend, he scored in each of L/4 and the guy is just unstoppable right now. Benfica are now hosting Aarhus on Thursday for the first leg of the last qualifying round of the Europa League, and you know Pavlidis is going to have his fair share of scoring chances. Plus, he is the Penalty Kick taker

Aarhus have been leaking goals left and right on the road: 2/4/2/1, allowing 12/29/21/12 shots and Pavlidis doesn't need too many of them to score.

Check the odds out there, Pavlidis to score anytime is currently at -175 at DraftKings and even though it seems like a bad set of odds, this is still a solid bet and these are the best odds than any other book out there.

Take 1.5% on Pavlidis Anytime Goalscorer (-175 DraftKings), line good to -200

Fun/Value Bet:

Pavlidis to Score 2+ Goals (+270)

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

(923) Arizona Diamondbacks at (924) Boston Red Sox: Total

First Inning Under 0.5 (-135) Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), Payton Tolle (LHP) Must Start

Pfaadt is 4-0 & 10-2 NRFI with a 3.30 ERA

Tolle 3-0 & 14-6 NRFI with a 3.13 ERA

Arizona has failed to score a first inning run in 4 straight games

Boston has scored a first inning run only twice in their L10 games

The Red Sox scored yesterday but have not scored a first inning run in B2B games in 27 days

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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Reds moneyline vs. Cardinals

I like Cincinnati ML tonight, especially if you can get -140 to -145. The handicap is heavily driven by the starting-pitching advantage.

1. Burns is a massive starting-pitcher advantage. Burns has a 2.47 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and opponents are batting just .204 against him. Cincinnati is 17-6 when Burns starts, which is roughly a 74% team win rate in his starts.

2. Burns looked dominant in his last start. Against Miami on August 14 he threw 7 scoreless innings, 4 hits, 8 strikeouts and zero walks. That's important because there had been some concern about his workload and a slight mid-summer decline; his most recent outing looked much more like peak Burns.

3. Liberatore gives Cincinnati a much easier offensive matchup. Liberatore carries a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP, allowing 132 hits in 119 innings. Cincinnati doesn't need Burns to be supported by a huge offensive night—3-4 runs could realistically be enough.

4. Burns can neutralize Cincinnati's biggest weakness tonight: the bullpen. There have been workload concerns with the Reds' relief corps during this compressed five-game series, but Burns is exactly the kind of starter who can cover six or seven innings. He went seven last time, meaning Cincinnati has a better chance of getting directly from Burns to its preferred late-inning arms.

5. St. Louis just used four relievers Tuesday. Ryne Stanek, Gordon Graceffo, George Soriano and Riley O'Brien all worked an inning in yesterday's 3-0 Cardinals win. None had a huge workload individually, so I wouldn't call the bullpen exhausted, but Cincinnati has at least forced St. Louis to use its late-game group immediately before this matchup.

6. This is a very different matchup from yesterday's 3-0 loss. Cincinnati couldn't solve Kyle Leahy Tuesday, but tonight they move from Leahy—who has a 1.80 ERA across his three August starts—to a pitcher with a 5.07 season ERA. Meanwhile Cincinnati moves from Andrew Abbott to its ace. That's a substantial two-sided pitching upgrade for the Reds.

My projected score is around Reds 4, Cardinals 2, with the core betting thesis being Burns + home field + major SP mismatch, rather than trusting Cincinnati's offense to explode.

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The Reds have a substantial starting-pitching advantage on Wednesday with Chase Burns opposing Matthew Liberatore in the series finale. Burns has been outstanding this season, going 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while Liberatore enters at 5-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Burns’ 2026 Metrics

• 2.47 ERA, 3.04 xERA, 3.14 FIP, and 3.50 xFIP

• 10.37 K/9 and 3.16 BB/9 rates

• 0.89 HR/9 and 9.2% HR/FB

Burns has been particularly sharp recently, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts, and he has won each of his last six home appearances against National League opponents. His swing-and-miss ability also gives Cincinnati an important edge, as Burns has recorded at least six strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 night starts. The Reds' offense has struggled lately, but this is an excellent matchup to get back on track against a vulnerable Liberatore who has surrendered five earned runs in two of his last four outings. Sal Stewart remains Cincinnati's biggest run producer with 26 home runs and 91 RBIs, and he has recorded at least one hit in 16 consecutive games against winning National League Central opponents. The situational trends also point toward a Cincinnati rebound, as the Reds have won six consecutive night games following a home loss while covering the run line in seven straight such games against National League opponents. St. Louis, meanwhile, has failed to cover seven of its last eight games against National League Central opponents following a victory and has lost four of its last five against Cincinnati after a road win.

Since 2013, MLB road underdogs of greater than +115 are 133-212 (38.6%; -5.5% ROI) following a shutout win by three runs or less. Finally, the Reds fall into a very good 313-196 (61.5%; +3.6% ROI) system dating to 2003, which invests in .509 or worse home favorites versus .501 or greater league opponents with a better run differential. This situation has been 102-53 (65.8%; +10.3% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +1.1 runs per game. With Burns providing a major advantage over Liberatore and Cincinnati in a favorable bounce-back situation, take the Cincinnati Reds as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, August 19.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Clemson.

I have pegged LSU as the most overrated team in the country heading into 2026. Before you call me crazy, go check who I picked as my most overrated team a year ago (Penn State). The splashy coaching hire, bringing Lane Kiffin over from Ole Miss in the middle of last year's Playoffs has fans expecting big things in 2026. Kiffin landed a $91 Million dollar contract and an unlimited bankroll to buy talent. Keep in mind that while Kiffin was successful at Ole Miss, he never had to navigate the kind of schedule LSU has this year. Dabo Swinney is a three time coach of the year, two time national champion and nine times conference champion. The Clemson stock is low right now after losing a ton of guys to the NFL draft. This line opened at double digits, but sharp money bought it down to single digits. If it goes back up to 10+ I will recommend a play on the dog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

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The Padres have a significant starting-pitching advantage on Wednesday with Michael King facing Robert Stock in the series finale at Citi Field. King earned the win over Cleveland in his last outing, allowing four runs (three earned) on eight hits across six innings, and toes the rubber with a 3.41 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 142.1 innings (4.26 FIP and 4.34 xFIP). Stock enters with a 6.57 ERA, 5.26 xERA, and 5.38 xFIP, together with an alarming 5.84 BB/9 rate. San Diego's offense also showed signs of breaking through Tuesday, producing 10 hits in a 5-2 victory behind Fernando Tatis Jr.'s two home runs and three RBIs. Tatis has now homered in three of his last four games as a road favorite against the Mets, giving the Padres another dangerous bat alongside Manny Machado. San Diego has also held opponents to two runs or fewer in three consecutive games, and King has recorded at least five strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances against National League opponents. The situational profile favors the Padres, who have won seven consecutive day games when playing on the second day of a back-to-back schedule, while New York has dropped eight of its last 10 home games against National League West opponents.

San Diego has been especially profitable in this type of matchup, covering the run line in 10 straight games against National League East opponents, while the Mets have failed to cover seven consecutive home games after playing the previous day. Since 2002, non-division road favorites of -121 to -136 are 1304-939 (58.1%; +3.2% ROI) in games with totals of greater than seven runs, whereas non-division home underdogs in games with totals of more than eight runs are 527-739 (41.6%; -4.1% ROI) in afternoon affairs, losing by an average margin of 1.1 runs per game. With King opposing a vulnerable Stock, San Diego's improving offense, and the Mets playing below .500 at Citi Field, take the San Diego Padres as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, August 19.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

The Giants seem willing to try anything right now just to stay ahead of the Rockies and out of the NL West basement...even if it means calling up a Tugboat to start in Wednesday’s game at Cleveland.

That would be Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson, a 6-1, 250-lb heavyweight who has posted a 3.60 ERA in 20 minor league starts this season, most recently for AAA Sacramento. After the latest SF humiliation by an 8-1 count last night in Cleveland, there’s nothing to lose. That’s scant reason for a recommendation, however, especially as the Guardians remain in the thick of the AL wild card discussion, and tonight's starter Parker Messick continues to impress, with a 1.96 ERA since the start of July. Play Guardians on Run Line

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Boston picked up another win yesterday and they’ve now scored 20 runs over their past 2 games as they go for the sweep of Arizona at Fenway. Payton Tolle will be tasked with helping them get the job done, and he enters off 8 innings of shutout baseball while allowing just 2 hits last time out. He’s allowed just 1 run on 4 hits over his past 2 starts and the Red Sox have won the past 7 times he’s taken the mound. Boston also has the best bullpen in the majors once he exits. Arizona has lost 3 straight and although Brandon Pfaadt has pitched well, the Diamondbacks are dealing with some internal distractions with Ketel Marte not showing up. Take the Red Sox.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Miami starter Sandy Alcantara projects to give up 2.9 runs with a 4.81 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  Philadelphia’s lineup has hit a solid .300 (97-323) with a strong .787 OPS against Alcantara in his career.  The Phillies will start Aaron Nola.  The righty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.31 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in the Philadelphia’s favor, look for the Phillies to get a solid home win in this game on Wednesday night.

Play PHILLIES (-).

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Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Los Angeles Dodgers (ML) | Good until -200.

Pitching Matchup: Roki Sasaki/Kyle Freeland (Action).

This will be the third consecutive game that I select the Dodgers including both premium/free selections. LAD's been hitting the ball much better lately and the pitching is beginning to light up opponents. This isn't the series that's going to showcase that pitching. But, there's going to be plenty of opportunities during it to pick a pair this younger lineup. Ohtani's also on a mission to win MVP again in the NL. Go with LA on again on Wednesday.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Some players like specific courses, some players show up at major championships when they have not played particularly well previous, Viktor Hovland plays well during the Fed Ex Cup Playoffs. In 2023 Viktor turned in finishes of T13 - 1 - 1 and followed that up with T2 - T26 - T12 in 2024 and T32 - T7 - 12 in 2025. We haven’t seen Viktor put a full season together in a while but he does play well in spurts and his most consistent streaks are during this stretch of golf, so I am going to ride it until he proves me otherwise.

Patrick Cantlay has put up consistent finishes and that is tough to bet against but, as with everyone in the field, he has a lack of course knowledge at Bellerive CC and his driver has not been the crutch that he has had when playing his best. Patrick has lost strokes or gained less than a strokes off-the-tee to the field in 5 straight tournaments but he has been able to lean on his ball striking to keep him competitive while gaining 6.7 and 5.6 strokes to the field on approach in back-to-back weeks. Bellerive is a major championship venue and while it will not be setup like one at this time of the year and for a playoff event, it will still show it’s teeth throughout the round and I believe this is going to be an off week for Patrick with Bellerive tightening up where he averages his carry off the tee.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

This shapes up as an excellent bounce back opportunity for Nasrat Haqparast. He sits at a true pick'em price tag and there's absolutely value in that number. Haqparast brings a polished striking game built on consistent volume. He fires long rangy combinations while managing distance with sharp footwork. As a slick southpaw he displays high-level technical boxing that lets him control exchanges from the outside. Padilla is a well-rounded fighter who works effectively in the clinch. He shows competence across every phase of the game yet lacks true elite skill in any single area. He likes to pressure forward with heavy shots powered by real strength. Lately he has found success by driving opponents toward the cage and controlling the pace once he gets there. The betting line stays tight mainly because of Haqparast’s most recent outing against Quillan Salkilld. In the opening round he absorbed a brutal head kick that flattened him completely. The finish looked devastating and left legitimate questions about Nasrat's recovery. The encouraging part is the 10 month layoff he took afterward. That amount of time should be more than enough for a full physical and mental reset. Now on the feet Haqparast holds clear advantages and his combinations are much cleaner. He has faster hands and better distance management as well. Padilla will struggle to close the gap cleanly and will leave himself open to counters as a result. Expect Haqparast to accumulate the higher volume of significant strikes and to win the majority of the minutes. He is simply the sharper point fighter when the action stays standing. His crisper combinations should allow him to outland Padilla throughout the contest. One possible path for Padilla involves wrestling entries, yet Haqparast is fully prepared for that threat. He currently owns a strong 86% takedown defense rate backed by reliable defensive wrestling. He can sprawl effectively and then return to brawling in the pocket where his volume becomes even more decisive. This matchup is likely to remain standing for long stretches and that is exactly where Haqparast does his best work. In a strong bounce back spot at an attractive price Nasrat Haqparast is the play to get the job done on Saturday night.

Released/revised 21 hour(s) ago

These are currently the two top teams in the WNBA. That's in large part to their defense. The Valkyries allows the fewest number of points in the league and the Lynx allow the second least. Minnesota checks in off consecutive games which went under the total while Golden State has gone under in three straight. The Valkyries last game had just 148 points. The most recent h2h meeting finished with 156 points. Minnesota's last four visits here have finished with 156, 149, 150 and 161. This should be another relatively low-scoring affair. *Good at 165 and up

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on CAL.

The Bruins made a splashy hire bringing in Bob Chesney as their new head coach. The last coach that left James Madison for the BIG10 ended up winning the National Championship in Year 2 at Indiana. Nobody should be expecting the same from Chesney. I like the hire, and I think the Bruins future looks bright, but Week 1 on the road against a team with a better quarterback and a defense that was far superior a year ago, I think the Bruins are the clear underdog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago

This is a free play on the Memphis Tigers.

The Rebels are the team with all the hype, and I hear fans glowing about head coach Dan Mullen. The coach on the other side has the more impressive resume, at least in recent seasons. Charles Huff won a conference championship with Marshall, then took over a Southern Miss team coming off a 1-11 season, and won seven of nine games to start last season. With 13 defensive players coming with him from Southern Miss, Huff's defense should be in good shape. I am not sold on the Rebels quarterback situation with Jackson Arnold and Alex Orgi. We will put this on our wait list, hope the line gets bet up to -7 and take the points when it does.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago

This is a free play on NC State.

The Cavs won 11 games last year, and I was on the right sight of several of those wins. I do expect regression, coming off a season where everything went their way. They won three games in overtime. I am not a big fan of transfer quarterback Beau Pribula, and while he is playing his first game with new receivers in a new system on a new team, CJ Bailey is in his third season under Dave Doeren. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago