Free Sports Predictions OCT 11: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Good to -120

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Oh yes, Man City is going to be involved in a football match on Sunday. Which after off-field events the past two weeks might seem like breath of fresh air for Enzo Maresca's troops.

The ultimate psychology play here, as City's playters have every right to be destracted by developmenrts regarding the culmination of the long investigation. Yet there's also a chance City pulls together, and it still leads the Prem because players like Erling Haaland continue in top form. Liverpool has not looked in sync yet for Javier Iraola, and we suspect City is more likely to circle the wagons on Sunday at Anfield. Play Man City on 3-Way

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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Why I favor the under:

• Dubai has scored only 66 and 58 points in its last two EuroLeague outings, against Fenerbahce and Crvena Zvezda.

• Those opponents are relatively strong defensive competition, making Dubai's struggles more meaningful than if they had occurred against weak defenses.

• Dubai's field-goal percentage is just 40.6%, with 32.3% three-point shooting.

• Baskonia is shooting only 30.8% from three, limiting its efficiency despite attempting nearly 30 threes per game.

• Dubai has held three of four opponents to 77 points or fewer, although its defense has yet to face an offense as effective as Valencia.

• Dubai played a domestic-league road game on October 11, before traveling to Spain for this contest, creating a potential fatigue concern..

  Dubai @ Baskonia — Under 177.5

  Projection component	Points
  Dubai offense vs Baskonia defense	85.1
  Baskonia offense vs Dubai defense	83.0
  Combined baseline	168.1
  Posted total	177.5
  Cushion below total	9.4

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Sunday Night Football featuring the battle of the birds. Taking the home Falcons (-3) with juice. The market is more leaning towards ATL (-3.5) which is the reason I am leaving this one as a free pick. Might comedown to the end with the dirty birds kicking for thee. For Sundays free pick bet Atlanta.

4-0 (100%) | 33-9 (79%) All 3%+ sides (+93% PROFIT)

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Houston hits the road with an 0-4 record.  The Texans are in a terrible spot after giving up a TD with 40 seconds left to play last week to the Cowboys.  Now they must try and regroup while laying 7 points on the road against a divisional opponent.  Tennessee is also winless at 0-4 on the season, but they’ve been extremely competitive in those losses. The Titans last 3 games were decided by a total of 15 points with no loss coming by more than 6 points.  Both teams are desperate for a win, so expect a close game throughout making the points valuable.

Play TITANS (+).

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Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

PLAY TYPE = 3 TEAM 7.0 POINT TEASER

PLAY RATING = FREE

#465 Houston PK

#461-#462 Las Vegas-New England OVER 38

#471-#472 Detroit-Arizona OVER 47.5

Date/Time: Oct 10, 2026 1:00 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Four of Seattle's five games have produced seven or more goals. The Kraken's last three games had score of 6-3, 6-2 and 6-1. Only Edmonton and Colorado are scoring more goals per game than Seattle. The Capitals have alternated between high-scoring and low-scoring games. Off a low-scoring game, look for that pattern continue and for this one to be higher-scoring. Play the Over.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

New Orleans is in of those rare NFL betting situations in which their playing their third home game in a row and they lost the previous 2. NFL home underdogs of +3.0 or less who are coming off home losses in each of their previous 2 games have gone 9-1-1 ATS since 1999. It's a small sample size but has been very profitable.

Minnesota has won and covered each of their first 4 games this season. However, you can make a strong case that perfect record is fraudulent and unsustainable. Despite that perfect record, The Vikings have been outgained by 26.5 yards per game. Compare that to New Orleans who enters Sunday's contest with a 1-3 record but has averaged outgaining their opponents by 6.7 yards per game. You can see why I think this way about the Vikings.

Bet New Orleans as a point-spread underdog of +2.0 or higher.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Bowers ATTD.

With Ashton Jeanty unlikely to play, and a starting receiver out of the lineup, we should see a heavy workload for the TE Brock Bowers. He has 16 receptions for 202 yards and two TDs in the two games he's played this season. Going back to the end of last season, he's scored a TD in five of his last six games. He's up against the Patriots defense that has six players listed as questionable.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

The Raiders' defensive efficiency, the Patriots' depleted secondary, and several profitable technical systems strongly support the road underdog. The Raiders have covered five straight games, going 4-1 during that stretch, and enter this matchup with a defense ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed and 11th in defensive success rate. New England's offense finally showed signs of improvement against Buffalo last week, but Drake Maye faced pressure on a career-high 21 dropbacks, raising concerns about his ability to sustain that performance against a Las Vegas defense that has been 0.8 points better than league average. The Patriots' most significant vulnerability is an injury-ravaged secondary that will be without starting cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, along with two reserve cornerbacks, potentially forcing multiple practice-squad players into meaningful roles. New England has ranked 13th in defensive EPA and 10th in success rate despite facing several quality offenses, but those season-long numbers substantially overstate its current defensive capabilities without its top two outside cornerbacks. Since the beginning of last season, the Patriots have allowed a positive 0.07 EPA per play across 312 defensive snaps without Gonzalez, compared with a negative 0.07 EPA per play when he is on the field, a differential that underscores his impact on the secondary.

Las Vegas quarterback Kirk Cousins should be positioned to exploit those coverage deficiencies, particularly through play-action concepts against a New England defense that has struggled to defend them effectively. Cousins ranks 8th in EPA efficiency against man coverage and is primed to exploit a New England defense that ranks 3rd in man coverage rate. Although the Raiders' receiving corps is thin with Jalen Nailor expected to miss the game, tight end Brock Bowers remains the focal point of the passing attack and presents a difficult matchup for New England's depleted coverage personnel. Bowers ranks 1st among tight ends in receiving grade against man coverage and should have a productive afternoon against a New England defense that frequently utilizes man coverage. The Raiders also benefit from outstanding pass protection at left tackle, where Kolton Miller leads all NFL tackles in pass-block win rate, providing Cousins an opportunity to attack downfield without excessive pressure.

The technical database supports Las Vegas through a system favoring conference underdogs of six points or fewer coming off a loss, which has produced a 315-245 ATS record (56.3%) since 2017. Since 1991, NFL road underdogs of less than +7 that won four or fewer games the previous season are 313-205 ATS (60.4%). The situational profile also supports fading short-priced home favorites in non-divisional games, as favorites laying four points or fewer in Weeks 1-9 are 255-208 ATS (55.1%) for the opposing side. With the Raiders' stronger defensive efficiency profile, Cousins facing an undermanned secondary, and multiple profitable technical indicators supporting the underdog, Las Vegas is Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Going to "buy the dip" now as I don't think the ML ends up getting better than this. For whatever reason there's a whole bunch of spots offering Jets -1 (-125) and I'm perfectly fine with that as well (if the alternative is a more expensive ML than -135).

The Browns have now won three consecutive games as an underdog. I think most of that was "right place right time" and there's still Week 1 where the Browns were not remotely competitive against the Jaguars.

I think it's finally time to "sell" Deshaun Watson and "sell" the Browns. I've also been higher than the market on the Jets all season and make the Jets -2.3 here so I can get down with simply needing the Jets to win this game at -135.

I'm going to break this one down in detail on my weekly NFL shows. Check back later today (by 7PM ET or so) for a link to the video breakdown for this game.

Play on Jets -135 for 4% (or 4 units)

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Seattle.

The Niners come into Seattle undefeated, but this is a tough spot for the underdog. Seattle beat the pants off them in the divisional round of last year's playoffs, and the Seahawks defense is up to their old tricks. JSN is still the top WR1 in the NFL IMO, and even though they could use Charbonnet, Emanuel Wilson has been solid filling the gap. I expect Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey to struggle in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take New England (#462)

The video below offers my take on Jags - Eagles early start London Game and Las Vegas vs New England.  Here’s a brief write-up for Raiders - Patriots.

The Raiders are 4-0 ATS, the single most undervalued team in the NFL so far this season.  That said, the Patriots haven’t forgetten how the Raiders whipped them right here in Foxboro last year.  They’re catching Vegas off a tough divisional game traveling from West to East for an early start game; all ‘bet-against’ scenarios.  The Pats best game all season (beating Pittsburgh by three scores) is the only previous game they played at home; now 8-2 ATS in their last ten games here in New England.  If I’m playin’ I’m layin’.  Take the Patriots

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(455) Minnesota Vikings at (456) New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards

Alvin Kamara Rushing Yards Under 34.5 (-116)

Why I lean under on rushing yards

Health concerns: Kamara has dealt with a knee aggravation and a back issue this week.

Workload uncertainty: If he's limited, New Orleans could shift more carries to Kendre Miller.

The line is modest: At 34.5 yards, the under is most appealing if reports indicate a reduced role. 

Play: UNDER 34.5

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Green Bay offers considerable value as a short home underdog against Chicago, particularly given the Bears' quarterback uncertainty, the Packers' historical success in this rivalry and several profitable technical systems favoring Matt LaFleur's team. Chicago enters at 3-1 following consecutive victories over Philadelphia (27-7) and the New York Jets (23-12), but the Bears must now navigate a hostile Lambeau Field environment with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent replacing the injured Caleb Williams. Bagent completed 25 of 34 passes for 268 yards against the Jets, but operating in Green Bay against a familiar divisional opponent presents a substantially different challenge, especially with the communication demands of a silent cadence. The Packers are only 2-2 and rank last in the NFL with 58 rushing yards per game, but Jordan Love provides a significant advantage in starting experience after completing 22 of 30 passes for 197 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 17-14 road victory over Tampa Bay. Green Bay's offensive line remains a legitimate concern, with its 22% pass-block win rate ranking as the worst through four games since 2017, making quick throws and protection adjustments essential against Chicago's aggressive pass rush. Nevertheless, the Bears' defense has surrendered 5.9 yards per play, providing Love opportunities to exploit coverage weaknesses if LaFleur can neutralize pressure through quicker passing concepts.

My technical database strongly supports Green Bay, beginning with home underdogs of fewer than six points coming off a road victory against opponents coming off a home win, a situation that has produced a 135-90 ATS record (60.0%) since 1989. Division home underdogs receiving fewer than four points with fewer than 10 days of rest have also gone 78-49 ATS (61.4%) since 1990, reinforcing the historical value of catching points in closely contested rivalry games. Another system favors teams averaging 19 points or fewer against opponents allowing 19 points or fewer when receiving no more than three points, producing a 73-48 ATS record (60.3%) since 2011. Green Bay fits that offensive-versus-defensive profile, scoring just 73 points through four games (18.25 per contest), while Chicago has allowed only 65 points (16.25 per game). Chicago's recent success also creates a potentially inflated market valuation, as road favorites coming off three consecutive home games have gone just 44-68 ATS (39.3%) since 1991, and the Bears now make precisely that scheduling transition.

LaFleur's historical performance adds another layer of support, with the Packers' head coach posting a 27-15 ATS record (64.3%) as an underdog and an impressive 11-3 ATS mark against Chicago. The Bears have also struggled in divisional competition, going 13-26 ATS (33.3%) against NFC North opponents since November 2019, while Green Bay has won eight consecutive October games. With the Bears laying points behind a backup quarterback, Green Bay coming off a confidence-building road victory, and multiple overlapping historical systems favoring the home underdog, take the Packers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Brock Bowers ATTD.

The Raiders are off to impressive start, and even though they are coming off a home loss to Kansas City they did cover the spread. Kirk Cousins engineered a late touchdown drive to pull the Raiders within three. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 11 TD passes so far this season. Drake May on the other hand is also among the league leaders, but leading the NFL with seven INTs isn't nearly as impressive. The Pats benefited from a soft schedule last year, and that success hasn't translated so far in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS — UNDER 43

I like the Under 43 points in Sunday's Bengals-Dolphins matchup. Miami's offensive struggles have been a major problem all season, and I don't expect the Dolphins to suddenly find their scoring touch against a Cincinnati team that can pressure the quarterback.

The biggest reason to like the Under is Miami's inability to generate points. The Dolphins are averaging just 11.5 points per game, ranking last in the NFL. They have struggled to sustain drives and turn possessions into touchdowns, and that makes it difficult to see them contributing enough to push this game over 43.

Cincinnati also has a potentially significant advantage on the defensive front. The Bengals have recorded 14 sacks through four games, ranking among the league's best, while Miami has managed only four sacks. If Cincinnati can pressure Miami's quarterback and force hurried decisions, the Dolphins could have another long afternoon offensively.

The Bengals have their own offensive concerns heading into Sunday. Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a concussion, while Tee Higgins has been sidelined by injuries. Both were absent from Wednesday's practice, and if either misses the game, Cincinnati could lose some of its explosive passing ability. That would make it harder for the Bengals to carry the scoring load themselves.

I also like the possibility of Cincinnati controlling the game once it gets a lead. The Bengals can lean on their running game, shorten possessions and force Miami to prove it can score consistently. With the Dolphins struggling to reach even 20 points, that is a favorable game script for the Under.

The key is that we don't need either defense to completely dominate. If Miami scores somewhere around 10–17 points and Cincinnati finishes in the mid-20s, this total stays below 43.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a traditional two-team, six-point "Wong" teaser as we're taking both the Saints and Packers up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Here's why, in both instances, I prefer to tease the two sides ...

2% Teaser - New Orleans (1:00 ET) and Green Bay (1:00 ET) - The Saints were humiliated on Monday night, losing to the rival Falcons 45-24, in a game that was designed to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of the Superdome re-opening after Hurricane Katrina. So there should be a sense of desperation/motivation in New Orleans, especially coming off back to back home losses that leave the team at 1-3 SU. Before the season, many people tabbed the Saints as the favorite to win the NFC South. They've still got a shot, obviously, but falling behind on a weekly basis has haunted Kellen Moore's team. It would be a shock to see them lose three in a row at home. But what makes the teaser option so appealing is that each of the Saints' first three games were decided by seven points or less. I also seriously doubt Minnesota's ability to win by margin, given their offense ranks 31st in total yards and could again be without WR Justin Jefferson. While the Vikings are one of three teams still undefeated, they've scored just two touchdowns in the last three games and one of those was by the special teams!

This marks the first time since 2006 that the Packers aren't at least a three-point favorite at home vs. the Bears. That was the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl. Clearly, the Bears are the better team now, but they don't win by margin very often and it's a great value teasing the Packers up in this spot. Yes, Chicago should have won by a bigger margin last week vs. the Jets. They had 34 first downs while the Jets ran a total of only 32 plays! But the Packers also should have won by a bigger margin last week. They turned the ball over twice inside the 10-yard line in Tampa. It's pretty crazy that the Bears only closed -3.5 last week vs. the Jets (at home!) and are now favorites, on the road, against their arch rival. I get that Green Bay has issues, particularly along the offensive line, but Matt LaFleur is rarely a home dog. Remember the Bears are starting backup QB Tyson Bagent. 2% Teaser - New Orleans (must be +7.5 or higher) and Green Bay (must be +7.5 or higher).

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Detroit has a strong bounce-back opportunity against an Arizona defense with few answers for what the Lions do best offensively.  Detroit ranks 3rd in offensive power and owns a substantial efficiency advantage through the air: +0.28 EPA per pass versus Arizona’s -0.03.  Jared Goff has been outstanding despite Detroit’s uneven 2-2 start, earning an 85.8 PFF grade while producing a 119.0 passer rating from a clean pocket and a low 0.56% turnover-worthy play rate.  The matchup is especially favorable because Arizona's defense grades poorly across the board, per PFF’s advanced metrics: 56.0 overall, 59.8 in run defense, 49.6 in tackling and just 48.2 in coverage.  Arizona’s coverage grade is particularly concerning against a Detroit passing game that boasts an 86.4 PFF grade and features clear matchup problems at Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.  Detroit ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and has another favorable environment in Arizona on Sunday.

The underlying numbers from Detroit's 32-26 loss to Carolina are far more encouraging than the final score: Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while Detroit generated 412 passing yards on 53 dropbacks.  Detroit's receiving usage was equally impressive, with Williams producing 102 yards, LaPorta 84, St. Brown 75, and Isaac TeSlaa 95, giving Goff four legitimate weapons to attack an Arizona secondary that has struggled badly in coverage.  The Lions are now sixth in EPA per dropback (+0.20), and their willingness to lean on the pass should maximize the biggest mismatch in this game.

Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a respectable 79.0 PFF grade, but his efficiency collapses under pressure, where his passer rating falls to 38.2.  Brissett also ranks last among 30 qualified quarterbacks at only 5.4 yards per attempt.   Arizona's Week 4 performance reinforces that limitation: Brissett needed 35 attempts to generate only 166 passing yards while throwing three interceptions, and the Cardinals' passing offense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.10).  The veteran signal caller now faces a Detroit stop unit ranked second in the league with an 81.6  PFF pass rush grade and first with an 85.2 PFF tackling grade.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database strongly reinforces the case for Detroit, with several high-performing systems converging on the Lions as a short road favorite coming off a loss.  The strongest angles center on Detroit’s bounce-back profile, its recent success under Dan Campbell, and its history of being a profitable road favorite in high-total games.

·        143-74 ATS (65.9%)  - Play On road favorites of -6 or less in Weeks 3-14 with totals of 46+ when their previous game went Over the total.  This powerful system has produced +61.6 units since 1989;

·        94-56 ATS (62.7%) - Road favorites of less than -7 coming off an ATS loss in a game that went Over are 62.7% ATS when the current total is 46 points or more;

·        114-77 ATS (59.7%) - Road teams coming off an upset road loss as favorites of less than six points have covered 59.7% of the time since 2000;

·        15-3 ATS (83.3%) - Detroit has been exceptional at rebounding from losses under Dan Campbell, covering 15 of 18 games following a defeat since November 2022;

·        50-28 ATS (64.1%) - The Lions are 64.1% ATS since 2020 when laying no more than seven points in games with totals of 45 points or more;

·        107-59 ATS (64.5%) - Teams that have gone three consecutive games without committing a turnover are 64.5% ATS against opponents that have committed at least three turnovers over their previous three games;

·        97-69 ATS (58.4%) - Teams coming off a loss after winning 11+ games the previous season are 58.4% ATS against opponents that won fewer than eight games the previous year;

·        50-27 ATS (64.9%) - Play Against home teams that won fewer than six games the previous season when they have allowed more points than expected in consecutive games and are coming off a double-digit loss without reaching both 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.

Detroit fits one of the strongest technical profiles on the Week 5 board: a quality team in a bounce-back spot, laying a manageable number on the road in a high-total game.  With a substantial quarterback advantage, a far more explosive passing attack, and an ideal matchup against one of PFF's lowest-graded coverage units, Detroit is positioned to rebound decisively on Sunday.  Lay the points with the Lions as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Atlanta (#476)

I’m not going to overthink this one.  The Ravens are coming off a win, playing on the road with their backup quarterback.  Snoop Huntley is no Lamar Jackson, to put it mildly.  Baltimore has back-2-back division games on deck after this, followed by a trip to Buffalo, making this their single LEAST important game for the next month.  Atlanta’s full season stats are lying; a completely different team since Michael Penix took over behind center in Week 3.  And when a team’s full season stats aren’t telling the true story, it can take weeks for the betting markets to catch up.  If I’m playin’, I’m layin’.  Take the Falcons.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on LV.

The Raiders are off to impressive start, and even though they are coming off a home loss to Kansas City they did cover the spread. Kirk Cousins engineered a late touchdown drive to pull the Raiders within three. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 11 TD passes so far this season. Drake May on the other hand is also among the league leaders, but leading the NFL with seven INTs isn't nearly as impressive. The Pats benefited from a soft schedule last year, and that success hasn't translated so far in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

PLAY: STEELERS -2.5

On paper Indianapolis won by 17 in London…. but they played worse than the final score… The Colts’ first five drives against Washington went fumble, punt, punt, punt, interception. Their two touchdown drives started at the Washington 46 and the Washington 20. Daniel Jones finished 19-of-34 for 143 yards with no touchdowns, and the Colts averaged 3.9 yards per play against a team that committed 10 penalties and finished the game with its third quarterback.

Now they fly home from London and then off to Pittsburgh, against a Steelers team that hasn’t played since Thursday night at Cleveland. Pittsburgh gets 10 days to get ready for this one, and extra time has been good to this franchise. The Steelers have won nine straight games coming off a bye, and Mike McCarthy is 12-6 off a bye as a head coach. Indianapolis hasn’t thrown for more than 211 yards in a game this season, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and Arden Key will miss time with a hamstring.

Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland but won the first downs and the time of possession, and all three Browns touchdowns came in one second-quarter stretch. Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes over his last two games, and Jaylen Warren has run for 220 yards on 34 carries in that stretch. At home the Steelers are 2-0. The last time Jones came to Pittsburgh, he threw three interceptions and the Colts turned it over six times in a 27-20 loss.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Detroit Lions (ATS) | Good until -6.0.

Detroit hasn't looked incredible this season so far either. But, I'm still anticipating better results this year opposed to last year's non-playoff season. Detroit's offense is definitely good enough for it to go far this season. It's the defense which is lacking and that could change this weekend. Arizona lost by double digits to a backup QB NYG team. The Cards lost to the Niners in the week before. Go with Detroit.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago