Free Sports Predictions AUG 7: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

3% | Dallas Wings [ML] | Good until -125.

After looking strong for the opening 30 minutes of the last game against Washington, Dallas got outscored 40-16 to finish the game and ended up blowing the game on Wednesday. Back at home now though, expect Dallas to provide a response. There's no debate that GSV's been great this year. But, road games haven't been completely smooth sailing for the Valkyries, especially after the loss in Phoenix in their last away game. Go with Dallas.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

TAMPA BAY ML vs SEATTLE

We're getting the better-hitting team with a better starting pitcher on the mound at plus money. I'm not sure what there is to think about with this one. It's worth a play given where both these teams are right now. Not overthinking it.

Released/revised 25 minute(s) ago

This matchup represents a true battle of the ages.... meaning both these guys are getting old for fighting. Diego Ferreira enters at 41 years old while Billy Quarantillo comes in at 37. Neither man has stayed particularly active in recent years yet both now prepare to face one another on Saturday night. Diego remains a well-rounded competitor whose high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu continues to stand out. He's very opportunistic with his submission attempts and pairs that threat with solid striking power. His combinations can be explosive and he tends to push the pace aggressively in the early going. Billy Quarantillo makes his first career move up to the lightweight division after a difficult 1-3 stretch that ended with a knockout loss to Cub Swanson. I do believe that loss has pushed the odds wider making Billy Q an underdog. Quarantillo thrives as a high-volume striker who loves to exchange heavy in the pocket. He pressures forward relentlessly and overwhelms opponents with pure output. The weight class change looks like a smart adjustment for him. Billy built his reputation on a durable chin and excellent cardio yet those qualities appeared to fade while he struggled to make featherweight. Competing at a more natural weight should leave him fresher and allow a rejuvenated version of his game to emerge. He's going to be the quicker fighter on the night, while recent performances suggest Diego’s overall skills have declined noticeably. Cardio has become a recurring concern for him and Billy’s constant pace could exploit that weakness. When fights start going against Diego he has shown a tendency to wilt under sustained pressure. Billy’s high-volume approach forces continuous activity and that demand may drain Ferreira’s gas tank even faster. Although Diego holds the superior ground game he has struggled to force the action to the mat. Across his last seven contests he secured only three takedowns and those all came in a single fight. Billy therefore carries the wrestling edge and can use it to control rounds from dominant positions when needed. The combination of relentless pace, forward pressure and striking volume should prove too much for the 41-year-old. Will be a scrappy fight and one Billy should edge out the victory at a plus money price tag.

Billy Quarantillo +150

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

2% Take Cincinnati (#903) (action)

It’s a bullpen game for the Reds while the Nationals have Cade Cavalli (seven quality starts in his last eight trips to the mound) on the hill.  That’s why Washington is favored here.  That said, these are two teams headed in opposite directions here in August.  Washington sold at the trading deadline, including their best pitcher (Foster Griffin) and one of their best hitters, (slugger Luis Garcia).  Another big bat, James Wood, just went on the IL with an oblique strain.  The Nats are just 1-8 in their last nine games; the only win coming in an extra inning game after their disastrous bullpen blew a pair of leads.  Right now, Washington is playing losing baseball; an easy team to fade as a favorite even with a starting pitching edge.

While the Nats are struggling mightily, the Reds are 6-1 in their last seven games, surging right now.  Their top four hitters in the lineup all hit home runs yesterday – Cinci is a team putting up runs in bunches of late.  And their bullpen is in excellent shape, rest wise and ‘current form’ wise – Terry Francona is poised to be able to squeeze nine innings out of his pen here.  Wrong team favored, in this bettor’s opinion.  Take the Reds.

Line Parameter: 2% at +100 or better, 1.5% at -101 or worse

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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916 Cleveland at Chicago White Sox

Extremely important series for both these teams, as the Sox have a three game lead over the slumping Guardians. We know we will get a good start from Parker Messick as he has been incredibly consistent this season. While the bullpen has had some usage the last couple days, overall they are in good shape.

The Sox are going to counter with lefty Noah Schultz, who has been pretty disappointing in his brief MLB career. But he is starting to put it together, pitching very well last time out against a hot Tampa Bay offense. The Chicago bullpen was used heavily last night, which is the only reason this play didn't make our final client card.

PLAY UNDER

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Backing the Red Birds over the Rockies to start off the weekend. Cardinals starter Kyle Leahy has been lights out over the last two months. He has held 5 of his last 7 opponents scoreless and is sporting just a (1.20 ERA) over his last 7 outings.

Colorado just got swept at home and now hits the highway. They are a horrific (18-38) on the road this season, including losing each of their last 4 away games. Their starter Feltner has been rocked for 17 runs his last 13 innings completed. The St. Louis bats likely get to him here. This one just missed the client card. For Friday's free pick- Bet Cardinals.

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE: Play OVER on home teams facing an opponent that had 11 or fewer hits and more than one triple in their last game.

35-11 (76.1%) since 2022, going OVER by an average of 2.7 runs per game.

That includes 8-0 this season, going OVER by an average of 5.8 runs per game!

Applies to Seattle.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Jackson Merrill has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and we're looking for that to continue tonight against the Astros. Since the All-Star break, Merrill is hitting .342 with six home runs and a .969 OPS. Houston is trying to introduce Ronel Blanco back into the starting rotation, but it has not gone well thus far. In three starts since returning from Tommy John surgery, Blanco has a 7.36 ERA and he's allowed five home runs in 14.2 innings pitched. Thirteen of Merrill's 16 home runs this season have come against right-hand pitching, which is what he will see against Blanco in the first half of tonight's contest. Merrill sits in the bottom-20th percentile among hitters in walk rate and he's only drawn a total of two walks in his last 15 games, so we're going to focus on power hitting for today's freebie. We're getting a generous plus-money price on over 1.5 total bases, which is a mark that Merrill has cleared ten times in his last 17 games. It's a small sample size, but pitching away from home has been an issue for Blanco over the last few seasons. Before his year was cut short, Blanco went 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP on the road last season. In his lone road start this year, he allowed five runs on four hits with three walks in 5.1 innings against the White Sox.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

(909) Oakland Athletics at (910) Boston Red Sox: Total

First Inning Over 0.5 (100) Jack Perkins (LHP), Payton Tolle (LHP) Must Start

Perkins is 5-4 YRFI with a 6.72 ERA

Tolle has 6 YRFI in 18 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 4.55 ERA in his L5 starts

Boston is 4-1 YRFI scoring in each.
The A’s are 5-1 TRFI

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

(915) Cleveland Guardians at (916) Chicago White Sox: Parker Messick Outs

1.5% Parker Messick Outs Over 17.5 (-141) Away Listed Pitcher Must Start

Messick Performance Analysis:

• Elite Seasonal and Road Metrics: Messick has been a model of consistency through 22 starts, maintaining a 2.57 ERA and a 1.057 WHIP. He is statistically even more dominant away from home, boasting a stifling 2.20 road ERA and a 0.962 road WHIP, demonstrating an ability to neutralize opposing lineups in hostile environments.

• Dominant Recent Trajectory: Since the start of July, Messick has reached a new level of efficiency. In his last 5 starts, he has surrendered only 5 earned runs and 22 hits across 28 2/3 innings, resulting in a dominant 1.57 ERA.

• Masterful Command: His control has been nearly perfect recently, posting an incredible 18-1 K-W ratio over his last 3 starts.

• Reliable Workhorse Longevity: Messick has proven to be a durable starters in the league, averaging 5.9 innings per game overall and an even better 6.1 innings per game on the road.

• Deep Game Consistency: The coaching staff has shown immense trust in his endurance. In his last 4 road games, he has averaged 94 pitches and provided significant length, recording out totals of 23, 18, 23, and 18 outs. Completing at least 6.0 to 7.2 innings in each of his recent road appearances highlights his high floor for longevity.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Philadelphia starter Zack Wheeler projects to give up 2.0 runs with a 3.06 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Toronto’s lineup has hit just .231 (24-104) with a weak .602 WHIP against Wheeler in his career.  The Blue Jays will start Jose Soriano.  The righty projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.65 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Philadelphia’s favor, look for the Phillies to get a solid home win in this game on Friday night.

Play PHILLIES (-1.5 runline).

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Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

The A’s lost again yesterday as they continue to suffer through one of the worst slumps in franchise history. The future Vegas squad has now lost 8 straight and 24 of their past 28 games and head to Boston to take on the hottest team in baseball. The Red Sox have won 8 straight and 26 of 29 as they send Payton Tolle to the mound. Tolle has held the opponent to 2 runs or fewer in 5 of his past 7 starts, with one of those coming against this same A’s lineup. The Sox have won the past 5 times he’s toed the rubber and they have the best bullpen in baseball once he exits. Jack Perkins was rocked for 6 earned including 3 home runs last time out, and the A’s have lost the past 8 times he’s been called upon. They also have the worst pen in the majors. This is a unique situation where two teams are trending in vastly opposite directions, and we’ll capitalize with the “bet on” and “bet against” angles. Take the Red Sox RL.

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Like they did in the ‘64 World Series when winning two of three in the Bronx, the Cardinals breathed some life into their recently-fading wild card hopes by winning a road series over the Yankees in front of this return to Busch Stadium.

Better yet for the Redbirds tonight is their well-kept secret, Kyle Leahy, a former reliever and now one of the NL’s hottest pitchers this summer, with a 1.21 ERA across his last seven starts, though dealing with some bad luck lately while getting scant run support in recent efforts. He should get some cushion tonight with St. Louis taking swings against the poor-traveling Rockies (18-38 away) and their struggling starter Ryan Feltner (8.74 ERA since July 1). Play Cardinals on Run Line

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

GOOD AT 7

Our selection is on the Ottawa Redblacks plus 7 1 /2

We make a small play on Ottawa here as we believe it is just too many points. This line seems to be getting bet down and that does give us pause. Earlier in the week you could have got this at 8 1/2 in some markets. That is just another reason we make it a smaller play. Have to believe the Redblacks play another strong game on the road even though they struggled to score in the last game. They should have had about 35 as they turned the ball over inside the 10 on numerous occasions. Also they had two short FG’s as well. That was against a Montreal D that is one of the best in the CFL. They catch a Roughrider D here that can allow a lot of points. Ottawa has a day in hand but that might not mean much, although it is something. They did play the Roughriders tough in 27-22 loss this season. We believe this is a better team now even with a bunch of changes with their coaching staff. Saskatchewan should win but not cover this number.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Kansas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

Kansas has finished 5-7 in back-to-back seasons, and they've got a real shot to make it three in a row.

Does a two-time 5-win team suddenly find a sixth? I don't see where it comes from. The Jayhawks are hanging around the bowl bubble once again and falling just short. This year they've got a harder path with a downgrade at the position that matters most, quarterback.

Jalon Daniels is in the NFL after six years in Lawrence, and the job now belongs to Cole Ballard, a redshirt junior who arrived as a walk-on, worked his way up, and started two games back in 2023. His stat line: 108 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a QBR under 40. Even the reporting that has him winning the job frames him as the safe game-manager over higher-ceiling Isaiah Marshall.

This is a team that can’t finish close games. They stalled in the red zone and misfired in the two one-score losses that would've made them bowl eligible last season and now they're handing the keys to a game-manager with a sub-40 career QBR. That's not how a 5-7 team finds a sixth win.

Their schedule does them no favors. Five true road games, and Arizona State in London. We see how losing that “across the pond” game fared last season for my Wildcats. The middle of the year stacks three road games in four weeks, and they close with two of their last three away from Lawrence. LIU and Middle Tennessee,  two wins. After that, the road to a sixth runs through Missouri, the London trip, at Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU, at West Virginia, and home dates with Baylor, UCF, and a high caliber BYU. There are potentially two coin flips in that mix. 4-8 is the ceiling for the Jayhawks in 2026.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

If you want a longer shot further down the board to win the SEC, Oklahoma stands out.

With a healthy Jackson Arvidson, John Mateer and 16 returning starters, they'll be a prime contender in this conference. The schedule at first glance looks tough, with road games at Michigan, Georgia in September. But they get the Red River versus Texas coming off the bye week and middle of the pack SEC from there on out. I’ve always been told it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish in the SEC… Oklahoma very well could be playing in the championship game in Atlanta in December.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Penn State Over 9.5 +140

Bottom line… They have the softest draw in the conference, no Indiana, no Ohio State, no Oregon. This season's opponents went .407 in Big Ten play last year. They also have zero P4 non-conference games. This screams over and that’s the reason this is a free play as opposed to client play.

Yes, the market has already priced in the soft schedule and is asking you to trust Matt Campbell in his first season at State College, with a new DC, and a defensive line that lost roughly 80% of its production. Let's count the likely wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland, that's nine games where they'd be favored, several heavily. Small dog at Michigan, coin flips versus USC at home, a team that has faltered in the Eastern Time Zone and at Washington. Are they going to win the Big Ten? Probaly not, but can they win 10 games and possibly be playing in Indianapolis to end the season.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Last season I gave out Tech 100-1 on “Bet On It” as a crazy long shot to win the National Championship. This season, I’m doing the opposite.

This 10.5 win total was built around Brendan Sorsby, ESPN's No. 1-ranked transfer and a $5 million-plus signing instead the Red Raiders get Will Hammond, a redshirt sophomore with exactly two career starts, and the number is still priced for a proven eleven-win passer who isn't on the team anymore. Hammond tore his ACL last October and isn't expected to be cleared for full contact until around August 21st. He's been throwing in 7-on-7s, but he'll take his first live hits of the year in a game that counts, and McGuire has hedged the timeline all offseason with "week one, if not for sure week two." ACL returns aren't linear, and a dual-threat whose rushing was a real part of his value is now running behind a repaired knee. Any setback in camp, any cautious week, and the offense leans on Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis.

The schedule looks easy... With the toughest team they face being Houston or Arizona. The Sorsby saga made Texas Tech the sport's villain with every Big 12 opponent circling them. Letdown and revenge spots multiply for a team the whole conference wants to end. Eleven wins demands near-perfection from a first-year starter, in a league gunning for them, with almost nothing going wrong across four months. Ask a good-not-great quarterback to be flawless behind a rebuilt knee and the likeliest outcome is nine wins, not eleven.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Redblacks (0-7) are still searching for their first win. This is not the place to get it. The Riders (5-2) won at Edmonton last game, avenging a home loss from the previous week. Now, they can potentially be in first place in the West by the end of the week. For that to happen, they need to beat Ottawa and also need the Elks to lose at Montreal. They should hold up their part of the bargain. The Redblacks are getting outscored by an average of 11.6 points per game. They lost their last road game by 23. No letdown here. Riders take advantage of the favorable matchup and pull away for a double-digit victory.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago