Free Sports Predictions OCT 14: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Sam Darnold isn't exactly a running quarterback, and we're certainly not expecting him to start taking off with the football regularly. But he's managed to clear this number in each of his last three games, and at just 4.5 rushing yards, I like our chances of getting another over.

What makes this interesting is that Darnold hasn't needed much volume to get there. He's barely cleared the number in those three games, but he's also managed to get over with just one rushing attempt in a couple of games this season. That's exactly what we're looking for with a total this low.

The matchup against Denver is another positive. The Broncos are allowing 25 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, which tells me there should be opportunities for Darnold to pick up a few yards with his legs if the situation presents itself.

We don't need designed quarterback runs or a major change in Seattle's offense. One scramble when the pocket breaks down or when Darnold sees an opening could be enough to cash this ticket. He's already shown a willingness to take those yards when they're available.

Darnold has cleared this number in three straight games, and Denver has been allowing rushing production to opposing quarterbacks. We only need five yards, and I like him to find enough room to get there one more time.

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The Cincinnati-West Virginia total is deceptively high: both teams can generate explosive plays, but their run-heavy identities favor sustained possessions and a moving clock over repeated quick-strike scores.

Run-Heavy Game Script

Cincinnati arrives in West Virginia at 4-1 and averages 4.66 points per scoring opportunity, but 55.8% of its plays are runs, with the Bearcats averaging 6.0 yards per carry. West Virginia is even more committed to the ground game, rushing on 72.3% of its plays—the fifth-highest rate nationally—while averaging 5.1 yards per carry and producing 1,773 rushing yards through six games. The Mountaineers’ 26.2% pass rate ranks 134th, reducing clock-stopping incompletions and encouraging longer possessions. Although West Virginia plays quickly at 22.57 adjusted seconds per snap, its extreme rushing volume should offset that tempo by keeping the clock moving.

Efficiency and Ball Security

Cincinnati has struggled against the run, allowing a 46.3% rushing success rate and 0.11 rushing PPA. Even so, West Virginia’s ground-oriented attack must repeatedly execute long drives rather than rely on quick passing touchdowns.

The Bearcats have also protected the football exceptionally well, committing only two turnovers all season. Their quarterbacks have thrown no interceptions and own a 0.00% turnover-worthy-play rate, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). That discipline reduces short fields and defensive touchdowns—two common threats to an Under.

West Virginia averages 9.6 yards per pass when it throws, but its 36.1% passing success rate ranks 121st, and its 52.6% completion rate ranks 131st. Cincinnati is much more efficient through the air, completing 71.8% of its passes, yet averages only 7.5 yards per attempt and continues to lean on a rushing attack ranked fourth nationally in rushing PPA (0.31). West Virginia’s defense—9.7 yards allowed per attempt and a 52.7% passing success rate allowed—is the greatest threat to the Under, but Cincinnati’s balanced, run-oriented approach offers a credible path to limiting possessions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides three supporting Under systems:

• Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points while allowing 45 or more are 473-365 to the Under (56.4%), producing +71.5 units since 2013;

• A subset angle requiring a total of at least 60 points is 272-211 to the Under (56.3%);

• Conference games involving a team coming off a 30-plus-point performance in which its opponent scored more than 48 points are 309-220 to the Under (58.4%) since 1989.

Both offenses rely heavily on the run, Cincinnati protects the football at an elite level, and West Virginia struggles to sustain efficient passing possessions. Combined with the historical systems, those factors support a lower-scoring game. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

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Six of Chicago's seven games have produced a minimum of six goals; the other finished with five. Dating back to last season, the Hawks have seen 10 of their last 11 finish with at least six goals. In all 11 games, they either scored at least four goals and/or allowed at least four. With Winnipeg off a 5-2 win and with the last h2h meeting between these teams finished with seven goals, this should be another relatively high-scoring affair. Go with the over.

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Take Texas (#174)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of College Football Saturday early start games in the SEC: LSU vs Mississippi State and Florida vs Texas.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Longhorns - Gators battle.

Florida is in a world of hurt right now and it’s not going to get any easier heading into Austin to face the former #1 team in the country coming off a ‘we gave it to them’ loss to Oklahoma last Saturday.  The Gators went 4-8 last year, and have been blown out in back-2-back games; not exactly bursting with confidence these days.  They’re likely to be without injured starting QB Aaron Philo.  Unlike Texas, Florda hasn’t had a bye yet.  Expect that to matter in the second half here…. Take Texas.

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Take Washington (#119) 

The ‘Daily Double’ video below breaks down a pair of Friday Night TV Games: Purdue vs Washington on Fox and Memphis vs Tulane on ESPN.  Here’s a brief write-up for Purdue- Washington.

I’m a Barry Odom fan and I watched what he did here in Las Vegas — turning a UNLV program that had been mediocre at best for three decades into an immediate winner.  But the Big 10 isn’t the Mountain West.  Odom’s Boilermakers are coming off back-2-back upset wins — fat and happy — now laying more than a field goal.  And Jedd Fisch’s Huskies grade out as the team with more talent.  Even if starting QB Demond Williams can’t suit up (questionable as I post this), his backup can play!  Too many points.  Take Washington.

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Take Seattle (#109)

Since the start of the 2025 campaign, Seattle is 100% perfect ATS when coming off a loss, like the one they suffered last Sunday to the 49ers.  Plain and simple – Mike McDonald’s track record tells us clearly that he gets ‘em ready and focused off an ‘L’.   Seattle at -3 or lower (including as an underdog)?  8-1 ATS in their last nine tries, the only loser coming by a half point against the spread.  Denver was trailing by a TD in the fourth quarter against the Chargers last week before LA’s failed fourth down conversion in their own territory was followed by back-2-back turnovers – the Chargers lost that game every bit as much (if not more) than the Broncos won it.  Denver is a home dog here for good reason – they’re not the better of these two teams.  Take the Seahawks

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~ adding breakdown Thursday ~

Free Play:

Erin Blanchfield wins by decision (-145)

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PLAY: BROWNS +5

Lamar Jackson sprained his left ankle and missed Sunday night in Atlanta. Jesse Minter says he is "definitely doing better" but would not commit to him for Cleveland, and we won't know more until later in the week. Even if Lamar suits up, his game is built on his legs, and he'd be playing on a bad ankle.

I argued last week that Tyler Huntley is serviceable...and he did just enough to get his team a win on Sunday night.  Bottom line, the -5.5 says it’s Lamar.

Cleveland 2-0 at home on the season, beating Carolina 21-18 and Pittsburgh 27-24. Outside of the opener at Jacksonville, this defense hasn't allowed more than 24 points, and it ranks fourth in the league in red zone defense.

The loss at the Jets was there for the taking (and we are thankful they didn’t!). Cleveland held a two-point lead inside the final five minutes in a steady rain, then a snap sailed over the punter's head and set up the go-ahead score. Isaiah Bond dropped three passes, one of them a touchdown.

Deshaun Watson is 7-2 TD-INT on the season with 167 yards rushing.

Divisional dogs barking once again in the AFC North. Give me the Browns and the points.

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This is a free play on DAL.

We saw a record 51 turnovers in Sunday's NFL games, and Green Bay was one of the teams that benefited the most from that. Their blowout win over the Bears came thanks to five Chicago turnovers. The Packers wins have come in overtime at the Jets in a game that New York dominated in the box score and should have won. They beat practice squad quarterback in Tampa and they won at home against Chicago's 2nd and 3rd string QBs in a game effected by turnovers. That gives them a grand total of zero legit wins if you are asking me. Dallas is still elite offensively, and the Pack aren't the best equipped to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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The Chargers enter this divisional matchup with big problems on offense. Rashawn Slater, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins and Tyler Biadasz are already unavailable, while Joe Alt missed every practice last week. The receiving corps is also depleted, with Tre Harris injured and Ladd McConkey active last week without playing a snap. Not one snap.

These injuries have forced the Chargers into an extremely conservative game plan. The Chargers don't and can't pass on early downs, so defenses, like Denver, crowd the line of scrimmage and make it difficult to run the ball. That gets the Chargers into long 3rd down situations, and when you can't protect your QB, this is what you're left with.

Kansas City is coming off a bye week, so you know they'll be ready for this depleted Chargers team. The Chiefs are an above-average defense again this season, and I expect points to be hard to come by for the Chargers.

The Chiefs aren't exactly a wealth of health either, even off the bye week. Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve, Rashee Rice is managing a hamstring issue, and left tackle Josh Simmons is likely unavailable. Kansas City has also gone Under in 11 of 13 games following a bye under Andy Reid, including all four at home since 2021.

Bottom line to me: I don't see anything but a ton of running in this game, with the clock moving. I would bet this sooner rather than later.

Play: Under 42.5

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Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

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This is the first meeting between Oklahoma and Kentucky since the Sooners joined the SEC. Both teams are coming off upset wins last week. Kentucky has won-and-covered each of its last four games after last week's home win over LSU. The Wildcats have already earned three outright upset wins in SEC play, and for roughly 45 minutes, it looked like they were going to upset Alabama, too. Kentucky's last five games have all gone over the total, although the last two were both aided by overtime. While Kentucky finds itself in a thriller every week, Oklahoma finds ways to win in the ugliest fashion possible. The Sooners earned the Red River victory over Texas last week with only one touchdown scored on offense. Oklahoma finished with 238 total yards and 14 first downs on 4.2 yards per play. The Sooners went 2-for-13 on third down and had to punt nine times. Laying points with Oklahoma is not easy at the moment, but we can only look in the Sooners' direction. Will Stein deserves a ton of credit for what he is building in Lexington, but at some point, you simply run out of gas. Oklahoma had a bye two weeks ago, so the Sooners' legs are relatively fresh. Kentucky just played back-to-back overtime games in the SEC, and they were pushed to the limit by South Alabama the week before that. At some point, you run out of gas. Oklahoma's defense is top-10 in the country in almost every meaningful metric. Play Oklahoma

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When we’re saying things aren’t the same in Lubbock this year, we’re not talking about the ribeyes at the local Saltgrass Steak House, which remain as good as ever. Rather, it’s the local Red Raiders, who despite being unbeaten like they were at this stage in 2025 are not really doing it in the same manner after stomping through most of their schedule a year ago like Godzilla once did to Tokyo. To wit: unless one timed the bet just right against outclassed Sam Houston, the Red Raiders didn’t have a spread cover the first month of this season until Colorado imploded in a hail of giveaways in the 4th Q at Boulder two weeks ago, turning a close game into a 29-7 Texas Tech win, and even then the Lubbock boys were outgained by the bumbling Buffs. Those issues on offense have been constant all season and a fear among Texas Tech backers since the Brendan Sorsby transfer from Cincinnati went off the rails in the offseason. Holdover QB Will Hammond has yet to look like he's shaken off last year's knee injury while posting very modest (subpar?) numbers including just 5 TD passes along with 5 picks into mid-October, while Joey McGuire’s potential rabbit-up-his-sleeve, mobile ex-BC and Florida State transfer Tommy Castellanos, a possible alternative after his late summer transfer, is now off the table (for the time being, at least) after a Kentucky court just sided with the NCAA and invalidated Tommy’s eligibility. Moreover, despite facing various outmanned foes, the ground game isn’t bullying foes like last season, either, with leading returning rusher Cam Dickey's (1124 YR in 2025) reduced contributions this term and ankle injury suffered at Boulder among other issues. It’s worth noting that it was none other than Arizona State that put the one regular-season blemish on the Red Raiders a year ago at Tempe in Sam Leavitt’s last hurrah as Sun Devils QB before a season-ending injury, so we suppose there is a revenge factor on the side of McGuire’s troops. Our question here is trusting this Arizona State version that was recently exposed by a Baylor side whose offense had previously borne a resemblance to UTEP’s, but would nonetheless burn the Sun Devils for 55 points. Yet Tech’s previous struggles with some comparable or even lesser sides makes us doubt this Red Raider version can be trusted to extend margins like a year ago, and can expect ASU’s Kentucky transfer QB Cutter Boley (12 TD passes) to at least keep winging the ball for 60 minutes. Play Arizona State **VALID AT +13 AND ABOVE

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This is a free play on ATL moneyline.

The line suggests that Caleb Williams is set to return after suffering what appeared to be a career ending injury against the Vikings. The status of RB1 Kyle Monangai is even more uncertain, and if he does return he will likely not be 100 percent given the turf toe diagnosis. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing, but it's a tough matchup against the Falcons defense that has been one of the top units versus the run. The Falcons are the #2 ranked rushing offense, and the Bears defense doesn't matchup well against Bijan Robinson. If both starting QBs play, this is a case of the wrong team favored IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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This is a free play on Carolina.

The Eagles appeared to have punted on the season heading into their game in London versus Jacksonville. We saw that line moved from -2.5 all the way to -7.5 at kickoff. We saw a far more competitive game than most people expected, and the Eagles really should have won. The fact that they did lose, combined with the way they lost, combined with the international travel sets them up for a huge let down. The injuries have piled up, leaving them with 4th string and practice squad running backs this week. Carolina ranks 31st in the NFL against the run, allowing 156 yards per game. Can the Eagles exploit that with a thin offensive line and practice squad running backs? My thought is that they probably can't.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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NBA FUTURES: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

The Rockets have won 52 games in each of the last two seasons, including a 52-30 finish last year despite playing the entire season without starting point guard Fred VanVleet, who suffered a torn ACL shortly before training camp.

VanVleet is back for 2026-27, and I believe his return is significant for a Houston team that finished just 21st in offensive turnover rate last season. The veteran point guard gives the Rockets an experienced floor general alongside a talented core that includes Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr.

Sengun is coming off his second consecutive All-Star appearance, while the 23-year-old Thompson is coming off a breakout season and remains one of the league's premier young defenders. Houston also gets Steven Adams back after the veteran big man suffered a season-ending ankle injury in January.

Rebounding remains a major strength. Houston has led the NBA in rebounding percentage in consecutive seasons, and its 54.5% mark last year was the best by any team in the 30 years of play-by-play data. The Rockets also finished sixth in defensive rating.

Most importantly, Houston doesn't need to match last year's 52-win season for this wager to cash. The Rockets can take a three-win step backward, finish 49-33, and still get us to the window.

With VanVleet and Adams returning to a team that has already won 52 games in back-to-back seasons, I see value in Houston clearing this number.

BET: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

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The Golden Flashes are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. Off b2b losses, the Bulls will be looking to take out their anger on someone. Kent State represents the perfect victim. Kent State has played three road games and is 0-3 losing by a combined score of 154-10. Granted, those were some very tough venues. However, this is another one. The American Conference is much stronger than the MAC and the Bulls are (at least) a mid tier team from the American Conference while the Flashes are among the weaker teams in the MAC. That makes them one of the weaker teams in the entire country. I've got an angry and superior USF team winning by more than three touchdowns. *good at -21 or better

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This is a free play on Arizona State.

Texas Tech is 5-0, and a double digit home favorite here this week hosting Arizona State. That is despite the fact that the Sun Devils have the better defense (statistically) and the better QB (realistically). Only UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati have allowed more yards per game than Texas Tech so far. I don't think this team is 14.5 points better than Arizona State!

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Massachusetts offers an attractive opportunity as a 6.5-point road underdog against Buffalo, with the Minutemen possessing significant advantages in offensive efficiency and ball security. Despite their 4-2 record, the Minutemen have played the nation's weakest schedule, making their statistical production difficult to evaluate in isolation. Nevertheless, Massachusetts ranks 66th nationally in offensive success rate (44.0%) compared with Buffalo's 130th-place ranking (34.8%), a substantial efficiency advantage that should translate into more manageable down-and-distance situations. The Minutemen also rank 36th nationally in passing PPA (+0.35), while Buffalo's passing offense ranks 118th (+0.05) and generates just 5.2 yards per attempt, the worst mark nationally. Massachusetts completes 69.8% of its passes, ranking 17th nationally, and has thrown only two interceptions, a meaningful advantage over a Buffalo offense that completes just 51.6% of its attempts. Pro Football Focus (PFF) reinforces that quarterback disparity, with the Minutemen holding decisive advantages in clean-pocket passer rating (110.4 to 77.3), passer rating under pressure (93.1 to 57.3), and turnover-worthy play percentage (1.69% to 2.86%).

UMass Quarterback Injuries/Depth

After dropping consecutive MAC games, the Minutemen face an increasingly difficult injury situation heading into Saturday’s trip to Buffalo. Starter Pop Watson missed Saturday’s game and is “unlikely” to return against Buffalo, while true freshman Aedan McCarthy, who made his first career start against Miami, suffered an injury that is expected to keep him sidelined as well. “We’ll see if Pop can go,” head coach Joe Harasymiak said. “I don’t know that. It’ll depend on later in the week, his body and how it responds to everything we’re doing. Probably unlikely for the most part.”

Harasymiak was also pessimistic about McCarthy’s availability. “Aedan is more than likely out with his injury. So we got the two-headed monster right now of Logan (Inagawa) and Ty (McCutcheon) that got to go in there.” Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards after replacing McCarthy against Miami, including a 21-yard touchdown to Max Dowling.

The rushing matchup also favors Massachusetts, which averages 4.9 yards per carry and ranks 65th nationally in rushing success rate (44.9%), compared with Buffalo's 3.7 yards per attempt and 126th-place rushing success rate (35.5%). Buffalo's defensive front has struggled to disrupt opposing rushing attacks, ranking 103rd nationally in stuff rate (16.4%) and allowing 3.09 line yards, creating opportunities for Massachusetts to sustain possessions and avoid obvious passing situations. The Minutemen also rank 19th nationally in defensive points allowed per scoring opportunity (2.75), while Buffalo ranks 61st (3.23). Turnover differential provides another important advantage, as Massachusetts has a +7 margin, ranking eighth nationally, compared with Buffalo's -4 margin, ranking 119th. Massachusetts has also forced 11 turnovers while committing only four, whereas Buffalo has forced just five and committed nine, a disparity that could prove decisive in a matchup with a relatively low total. The Minutemen's deliberate offensive tempo, averaging 29.83 seconds per play compared with Buffalo's 24.45 seconds, should limit possessions and increase the value of each possession.

My technical database also supports Massachusetts, as road underdogs of 3 to 16 points in games with totals between 41 and 46 points have produced a 140-81 ATS record (63.3%; +50.9 units) since 1989. A broader system targeting unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 points or fewer has generated a 488-379 ATS record (56.3%; +71.1 units) since 1991. Take the Massachusetts Minutemen as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, October 17.

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The Lakers had a lot of turnover in the offseason, with not a lot of return on investment. While they have the top scorer in the league in Luka Doncic, there are some real concerns on defense. Steph Curry is healthy and Yaxel Lendeborg will be an instant impact player after winning the NBA Summer League MVP in Vegas. LA is laying too many points here and we’ll back Golden State in the dog role. Take the Warriors.

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FREE PICK on Los Angeles Rams (ATS) | Good until -14.0.

The loss against Buffalo last week definitely hurts. But, against a superbowl contender, the Rams can't be mad about it. They must progress forward. They have a losing record and now host a divisional opponent that's been the worst team in the division for many weeks in a row now. Arizona just traded Marvin Harrison Jr away as well. Go with the Rams - expect a blowout.

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PLAY: COLORADO STATE +14

What does Colorado State do well? They take the ball away from their opponents. The Rams have 11 takeaways on the season.

Both teams are coming off a bye for Thursday night's game in San Marcos. Ksaan Farrar has taken over at quarterback, throwing for 344 yards at UTSA, and Jayden Brown is averaging 10 yards per carry.

Texas State is 3-2, but look at the some of the wins... North Texas and Incarnate Word. The Bobcats lost 31-26 to UTSA at home and 31-29 at San Diego State, and they have turned it over nine times on the season. Brad Jackson has 13 touchdown passes, but he has also thrown five interceptions.

That is a lot to lay with a team that gives it away like Texas State.

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Backing the Bruins over the Badgers in the Rose Bowl. You can get (-2.5) in the marketplace, (-3) widely available. Bob Chesney's UCLA squad has looked spectacular out the gate this season. I will be in with more details on this wager later in the week.

10-0 (100%) College Football sides (+46% PROFIT).

(17-2) College Football overall (+63% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

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The Bulls pulled off a major upset at Toledo last week. They didn't just beat the Rockets, they dominated them. Toledo didn't score until there was less than five minutes remaining. The final score was 23-8. Consider that the Rockets had won nine straight at the Glass Bowl, outscoring opponents by an average of 48-13 in those nine wins. They entered the game with the top ranked offense in the MAC. Off that extremely impressive victory, I expect the Bulls to carry the positive momentum into Saturday's game against UMass. The Minutemen are off a tough 1-point loss vs Miami Ohio. The Bulls won last season's game by seven points (28-21) and the out-gained the Minutemen by a 494-306 margin, in terms of total yards. The two previous meetings saw Buffalo win by scores of 34-3 and 34-7. The should be able to win by at least a touchdown, once again. *good up to -7

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Trae Young has stated that he’s never had a teammate who could consistently draw double teams, yet every team he’s played for has still won at least 35 games. Now, he gets to play alongside Anthony Davis and No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, giving him a level of talent and offensive support he hasn’t had before.

Trae and AD complement each other extremely well. Trae’s playmaking and ability to create open looks should pair perfectly with Davis’s interior scoring, defensive presence, and ability to dominate on both ends of the floor. Add in Dybantsa and a solid supporting cast, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this team can exceed expectations.

Health is the obvious concern, but I believe they stay on the floor enough to make this roster competitive. With the fourth easiest schedule working in their favor, the opportunity is there to capitalize.

I’m backing the Over 34.5 wins. Trae has already shown he can lead teams to 35 or more wins without this level of talent around him. With Davis and Dybantsa now in the picture, this number is well within reach if they can stay reasonably healthy.

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