Free Sports Predictions OCT 17: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Receiving Yards UNDER 54.5

Good to -125

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Catching the Colts just under the touchdown at Fanduel Sporstbook right now (Saturday afternoon). This Tennessee squad is just straight fade away. Not making the client card, for Sunday's free pick- Bet Colts.

14-3 (82%) Football run (+50% PROFIT).

Wagertalk's #1 Ranked All Sports Handicapper Overall L 365 Days (Return On Investment).

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

(263) New York Jets at (264) New England Patriots: Hunter Henry Receiving Yards

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Over 26.5 (-113)

Over 26.5 receiving yards

Playable to 29.5

Henry has cleared this range in each of his last two listed games, recording 44 and 62 receiving yards. That makes the yardage over my favorite angle at a reasonable number.

Play: OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Chicago hits the road off an embarrassing 24-point loss in Green Bay.  The Bears should be getting their QB back for this game, and HC Ben Johnson has been able to get his team to respond well after an ugly defeat.  Atlanta also comes in off a loss, and the Falcons have scored 103 total points over their last 3 games.  However, they are 0-2 at home this season while giving up 64 points in those games.  Chicago is trusted more to bounce back off a bad performance, so play the road team in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Play BEARS.

-------------------

Special Offers:
SAVE 30% on any All Access subscription with promo code: STEVE30
FREE Week (7 days) Premium Live Odds, Injuries, Scores: OddsLogic.com/SM

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Off a 26-3 loss to Houston, the Titans are 0-5. Struggling on both sides of the ball, they've now lost 33 of their last 39 games. This figures to be another tough matchup for them. The Colts also lost their last game. However, they'd won two in a row before that. With back-to-back tough road contests following this one, Indianapolis needs to take advantage of this winnable game. The Colts have beaten the Texans six straight times. This season, the Titans are last in total offense (31st in passing and 27th in rushing) and they're also last in terms of average time of possession. They average just 11.6 ppg. Indianapolis averages 24.8 ppg. Last season's two games were both blowouts, the Colts winning by scores of 38-14 and 41-20. They should be able to win this one by at least a touchdown. *good at -7 or better

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Blake Corum Receiving Yards Over 6.5 (-114)
I really like what we're seeing from Blake Corum in the Rams' passing game, and at just 6.5 receiving yards, this is a number I think we can take advantage of. Corum has cleared this total in three of his last four games, and his involvement as a receiver is starting to become much more interesting.

What really caught my attention was last week's game against Buffalo. The Bills were clearly focused on Kyren Williams whenever he released out of the backfield, paying him plenty of defensive attention. Meanwhile, Corum was being left open, and he took full advantage, exploding for 53 receiving yards on three catches.

That's a significant development for a running back who didn't catch a single pass in the season opener. Corum followed that up with four receptions over his next three games before breaking out with a season-high three catches last week. His opportunities have been increasing, and more importantly, he's showing the Rams what he can do when they get the football into his hands.

I think that performance against Buffalo could lead to more opportunities going forward. Corum demonstrated that he's not just a runner who can catch an occasional checkdown. He can make plays in space, pick up yards after the catch and punish defenses that devote too much attention to Williams.

The best part about this bet is that we don't need another 53-yard performance. We don't even need multiple receptions. One catch for seven yards is all it takes to cash this ticket. With Corum becoming more involved and coming off his best receiving performance of the season, that's a very manageable number.

We're getting a player whose receiving production is trending in the right direction, who has cleared this total in three of four games, and who just gave his coaching staff another reason to involve him in the passing attack.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

3% Leeds United PK (9:00 AM ET): Manchester United is an absolute disaster right now. I will look to fade them again Sunday in the English Premier League for all the same reasons I did Tuesday in the Champions League. That 2-0 loss at Atletico Madrid saw the Red Devils concede in the opening minute and when Leny Yoro was sent off in the 74th minute, that was all she wrote. The loss extends Man U’s winless run - in all competitions - to five straight. Here in the EPL, they’ve picked up just one win in six tries. It’s their worst start EVER to a Premier League season as they are currently 13th in the table.

Meanwhile, Leeds United is off to a very promising start to the campaign. The Whites came into last week’s fixture with Arsenal still unbeaten in EPL action. They did suffer their first loss, 2-1, but considering the opponent and a brief 1-0 lead after James Justin found the back of the net in the 55th minute, there’s no reason to hang their head. Daniel Farke’s side conceded twice in an eight minute span, a tough turn of events, but Leeds still remain 7th in the table and just four points off the top four. While I’d be surprised if they end up finishing in the European places, Leeds are clearly in better form at the moment, relative to Manchester United.

Therefore, the fact that Leeds come in as a slight favorite for Sunday’s match shouldn’t be a surprise. They’re unbeaten in their last eight matches at Elland Road, including five wins and five clean sheets. The fact we can play Leeds “Draw No Bet” feels like a nice luxury. (In case of a draw, our bet will push, not lose). Again, as I wrote Tuesday, Manchester United’s only two wins this season have been against Sabah (1st time Champions League club) and newly promoted Ipswich Town. Twice they’ve failed to win when up a man (Man City, Spurs). Leeds are home and better rested. Expect them to pick up all three points. 3% Leeds United PK (Play to -160)

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

The Chargers' offensive problems underpin this play. Los Angeles is averaging just 16.8 points and 292.8 yards per game, ranking 30th and 25th in the NFL, while Justin Herbert has thrown only five touchdowns against seven interceptions. Worse, an injury-ravaged offensive line started four rookies last week, including three making their first NFL starts.

Kansas City is allowing only 19.3 points per game, and with the Chiefs rested off their bye, this is a difficult matchup for a Chargers offense that hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game. Kansas City has also become more balanced offensively behind running back Kenneth Walker III, which gives the Chiefs another way to control possession and shorten the game rather than relying exclusively on Patrick Mahomes.

This rivalry has also produced tight, lower-scoring games recently, including Kansas City's 19-17 and 13-12 wins in 2024 and the Chargers' 16-13 win at Arrowhead last season. With Los Angeles struggling to generate points and Kansas City able to control the game without needing an offensive shootout, 41.5 is high enough to attack the Under.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

1) The UNDER is 8-1 since last season when the Chargers allowed 150 or fewer passing yards in their last game, staying UNDER by an average of 6.4 points!

2) The UNDER is 7-0 since the 2024 season when the Chiefs are at home against a division opponent, staying UNDER by an average of 8.4 points!

3) The UNDER is 7-0 since last season when the Chiefs play with the total between 35.5 and 45, staying UNDER by an average of 7.9 points!

4) The UNDER is 10-1 since last season when the Chiefs are off an ATS loss, staying UNDER by an average of 6.8 points!

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

The Cowboys are in major bounce back mode after an embarrassing loss to a rookie quarterback on Thursday night football. When it comes to defense, this team is a disaster, but Green Bay ranks middle of the pack on that side of the ball, just 14^th in EPA play play defensively. This is a game where Dallas’ offense can light up the scoreboard, and it will be difficult for the Packers, even at home, to keep up. The Cowboys are 5^th in EPA per play offensively and Dak Prescott is 5^th in adjusted EPA per play amongst quarterbacks. The Packers have strung together a few wins, but the first was against a rookie making his first career start and the 2^nd was against a backup last week in Tyler Bagent, who has been awful. At some point the defense has to show us something and we are backing one of the best offenses in football in a prime spot. Take the Cowboys.

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

This is a Free play on LV TT Over.

I am not sure I want to bet on Vegas to win or cover in this game, but I do think they should score some points. The Bills defense has been terrible this season, particularly against the pass. The Bills rank 31st in the NFL allowing over 280 yards per game. The Raiders can certainly take advantage of that, as Kirk Cousins ranks 2nd in the NFL with a dozen passing TDs. At home in an indoor game, the Raiders should get theirs in what I think will be a high scoring game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Chicago (#269) on the Moneyline

The ‘Daily Double’ free picks video below offers my take for Eagles - Panthers and Bears - Falcons this week.  Here’s a brief write-up for Atlanta - Chicago.

I understand that Caleb Williams may not play for the Bears this week, very questionable as I write this on Friday.  That said, I want NO part of Atlanta on Sunday, and I’m more than willing to lock in at this near pick em price with Ben Johnson’s team now —if Williams does suit up, we’ll be getting the best of the number and if he doesn’t,there’s still reason to think Atlanta is likely to be a little flat this week after three straight ‘max intensity national TV games’ ended with an exhausting OT loss to Baltimore last Sunday. In this near pick ‘em pointspread range, I’ll use a moneyline bet, asking for only the SU win, no margin needed.  Take the Bears on the Moneyline

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: BROWNS +5

Lamar Jackson sprained his left ankle and missed Sunday night in Atlanta. Jesse Minter says he is "definitely doing better" but would not commit to him for Cleveland, and we won't know more until later in the week. Even if Lamar suits up, his game is built on his legs, and he'd be playing on a bad ankle.

I argued last week that Tyler Huntley is serviceable...and he did just enough to get his team a win on Sunday night.  Bottom line, the -5.5 says it’s Lamar.

Cleveland 2-0 at home on the season, beating Carolina 21-18 and Pittsburgh 27-24. Outside of the opener at Jacksonville, this defense hasn't allowed more than 24 points, and it ranks fourth in the league in red zone defense.

The loss at the Jets was there for the taking (and we are thankful they didn’t!). Cleveland held a two-point lead inside the final five minutes in a steady rain, then a snap sailed over the punter's head and set up the go-ahead score. Isaiah Bond dropped three passes, one of them a touchdown.

Deshaun Watson is 7-2 TD-INT on the season with 167 yards rushing.

Divisional dogs barking once again in the AFC North. Give me the Browns and the points.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on DAL.

We saw a record 51 turnovers in Sunday's NFL games, and Green Bay was one of the teams that benefited the most from that. Their blowout win over the Bears came thanks to five Chicago turnovers. The Packers wins have come in overtime at the Jets in a game that New York dominated in the box score and should have won. They beat practice squad quarterback in Tampa and they won at home against Chicago's 2nd and 3rd string QBs in a game effected by turnovers. That gives them a grand total of zero legit wins if you are asking me. Dallas is still elite offensively, and the Pack aren't the best equipped to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Chargers enter this divisional matchup with big problems on offense. Rashawn Slater, Trevor Penning, Trey Pipkins and Tyler Biadasz are already unavailable, while Joe Alt missed every practice last week. The receiving corps is also depleted, with Tre Harris injured and Ladd McConkey active last week without playing a snap. Not one snap.

These injuries have forced the Chargers into an extremely conservative game plan. The Chargers don't and can't pass on early downs, so defenses, like Denver, crowd the line of scrimmage and make it difficult to run the ball. That gets the Chargers into long 3rd down situations, and when you can't protect your QB, this is what you're left with.

Kansas City is coming off a bye week, so you know they'll be ready for this depleted Chargers team. The Chiefs are an above-average defense again this season, and I expect points to be hard to come by for the Chargers.

The Chiefs aren't exactly a wealth of health either, even off the bye week. Tyquan Thornton is on injured reserve, Rashee Rice is managing a hamstring issue, and left tackle Josh Simmons is likely unavailable. Kansas City has also gone Under in 11 of 13 games following a bye under Andy Reid, including all four at home since 2021.

Bottom line to me: I don't see anything but a ton of running in this game, with the clock moving. I would bet this sooner rather than later.

Play: Under 42.5

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Pittsburgh is 4-1 straight-up and against the spread over the last five meetings with Tampa Bay, but these cross-conference foes have not met since the Steelers' 20-18 home win in October 2022 when Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky were running the offense. Tampa had some extra time to prep for this one after winning in Dallas last Thursday as a 9.5-point 'dog. Jalon Daniels was very impressive in his first career start, going 19-of-25 with only one sack and no turnovers. Bucky Irving added 165 yards on the ground with a pair of touchdowns. The vibes are also high in Pittsburgh this week after the Steelers earned a nice home win over the Colts. Pittsburgh's last three games have seen an average of 54.7 points per game, with all three of those contests flying over their respective totals. Jaylen Warren took another step forward in the Steelers' offense, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to go along with 87 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. After throwing two interceptions the previous week against the Browns, Aaron Rodgers played a clean game against the Colts' defense but he’s beginning to run out of weapons. Running back Rico Dowdle and wide receiver Michael Pittman have both missed extended time, and fellow receiver Roman Wilson is now expected to miss multiple weeks with a bad finger. You're now looking at a Steelers' receiving corps that features DK Metcalf, Germie Bernard and a slew of tight ends and running backs with a 42-year-old quarterback. That's not the type of team we're looking to lay points with on the road at the moment. And while the black-and-gold will undoubtedly travel well to Tampa and make an impact in the noise department, playing in South Florida is still difficult. The Bengals and Dolphins played one of the hottest October games in NFL history last week. That might be something to monitor for a Steelers team that hasn't left the Northeast this season (heck, they didn't even leave the Northeast in the preseason either). Tampa had extra time to rest and prep for this one. And with the current state of the NFC South, the Bucs can be right back in the division hunt with a win on Sunday. Play Tampa Bay Bucs

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on ATL moneyline.

The line suggests that Caleb Williams is set to return after suffering what appeared to be a career ending injury against the Vikings. The status of RB1 Kyle Monangai is even more uncertain, and if he does return he will likely not be 100 percent given the turf toe diagnosis. The Bears lead the NFL in rushing, but it's a tough matchup against the Falcons defense that has been one of the top units versus the run. The Falcons are the #2 ranked rushing offense, and the Bears defense doesn't matchup well against Bijan Robinson. If both starting QBs play, this is a case of the wrong team favored IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Carolina.

The Eagles appeared to have punted on the season heading into their game in London versus Jacksonville. We saw that line moved from -2.5 all the way to -7.5 at kickoff. We saw a far more competitive game than most people expected, and the Eagles really should have won. The fact that they did lose, combined with the way they lost, combined with the international travel sets them up for a huge let down. The injuries have piled up, leaving them with 4th string and practice squad running backs this week. Carolina ranks 31st in the NFL against the run, allowing 156 yards per game. Can the Eagles exploit that with a thin offensive line and practice squad running backs? My thought is that they probably can't.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

NBA FUTURES: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

The Rockets have won 52 games in each of the last two seasons, including a 52-30 finish last year despite playing the entire season without starting point guard Fred VanVleet, who suffered a torn ACL shortly before training camp.

VanVleet is back for 2026-27, and I believe his return is significant for a Houston team that finished just 21st in offensive turnover rate last season. The veteran point guard gives the Rockets an experienced floor general alongside a talented core that includes Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr.

Sengun is coming off his second consecutive All-Star appearance, while the 23-year-old Thompson is coming off a breakout season and remains one of the league's premier young defenders. Houston also gets Steven Adams back after the veteran big man suffered a season-ending ankle injury in January.

Rebounding remains a major strength. Houston has led the NBA in rebounding percentage in consecutive seasons, and its 54.5% mark last year was the best by any team in the 30 years of play-by-play data. The Rockets also finished sixth in defensive rating.

Most importantly, Houston doesn't need to match last year's 52-win season for this wager to cash. The Rockets can take a three-win step backward, finish 49-33, and still get us to the window.

With VanVleet and Adams returning to a team that has already won 52 games in back-to-back seasons, I see value in Houston clearing this number.

BET: HOUSTON ROCKETS OVER 48.5 WINS (-105)

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

The Lakers had a lot of turnover in the offseason, with not a lot of return on investment. While they have the top scorer in the league in Luka Doncic, there are some real concerns on defense. Steph Curry is healthy and Yaxel Lendeborg will be an instant impact player after winning the NBA Summer League MVP in Vegas. LA is laying too many points here and we’ll back Golden State in the dog role. Take the Warriors.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Los Angeles Rams (ATS) | Good until -14.0.

The loss against Buffalo last week definitely hurts. But, against a superbowl contender, the Rams can't be mad about it. They must progress forward. They have a losing record and now host a divisional opponent that's been the worst team in the division for many weeks in a row now. Arizona just traded Marvin Harrison Jr away as well. Go with the Rams - expect a blowout.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

Trae Young has stated that he’s never had a teammate who could consistently draw double teams, yet every team he’s played for has still won at least 35 games. Now, he gets to play alongside Anthony Davis and No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa, giving him a level of talent and offensive support he hasn’t had before.

Trae and AD complement each other extremely well. Trae’s playmaking and ability to create open looks should pair perfectly with Davis’s interior scoring, defensive presence, and ability to dominate on both ends of the floor. Add in Dybantsa and a solid supporting cast, and there’s plenty of reason to believe this team can exceed expectations.

Health is the obvious concern, but I believe they stay on the floor enough to make this roster competitive. With the fourth easiest schedule working in their favor, the opportunity is there to capitalize.

I’m backing the Over 34.5 wins. Trae has already shown he can lead teams to 35 or more wins without this level of talent around him. With Davis and Dybantsa now in the picture, this number is well within reach if they can stay reasonably healthy.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago