Free Sports Predictions NOV 14: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Duke +14.0 (-110)

Duke Trends + Recent Form —

• Duke is 7–2 (77.8%) ATS this season

  • Including, 3–1 (75%) ATS on the road.

• Over the last three seasons, Duke is 15–5 (75%) ATS in conference games.

  • This year, it is 4–2 (66.7%) ATS in ACC play

    • 2–1 (66.7%) ATS on the road against ACC opponents.

• Duke is 7–1–1 ATS (77.8%) as a conference underdog over the last three seasons

  • covered 5 straight (100%) in that spot.

• In the last three games —

  • Duke is 3–0 (100%) SU and ATS

    • averaging 35.7 points per game

    • covering the spread by an average of 25.7 points.

• Duke has won and covered 2 of the last 3 (66.7%) meetings in Miami.

Miami —

• Miami is 3–3 (50%) ATS in ACC play this season

  • including just 1–1 (50%) ATS at home.

• The key concern is the potential bounce-back —

  • Miami is looking to avoid consecutive losses, which makes Duke harder to back despite the favorable trends.

Duke’s season-long ATS performance, recent dominance, and conference-underdog record make a strong case for the Blue Devils. But the possibility of a Miami response after a loss is the main, and justifiable, counter argument.

Released/revised 53 minute(s) ago

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The #1 vs #2 goal preventing defenses face off in what I expect to be a tough, physical contest..

Minnesota Wild at Boston Bruins — UNDER 6 Goals

1. Two elite defenses: Minnesota allows just 2.19 goals per game (#1 NHL), while Boston allows 2.42 (#3 NHL). Both teams are among the league's toughest to score against.

2. Strong expected goaltending: Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt has a .931 save percentage over his last five starts, while Boston's Jeremy Swayman has a .906 mark. Both are projected starters, although not yet confirmed.

3. Under-friendly trends: Minnesota is 4–10 to the Over on the road (10 Unders), while Boston is 5–5 on home totals. Minnesota's road defense allows approximately 2.1 goals per game.

Projected score: Minnesota 3, Boston 2.

Under 6: Five or fewer goals wins; exactly six pushes. This is a reasonable lean, but not a high-confidence play given both teams' offensive talent.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

Bronco Mendenhall is flashing his coaching chops for the Utags, having steadied the ship in Logan and getting the Aggies in position to get bowl-eligible, which looked remote not long ago.

The switch back to ex-BYU McCae Hillstead at QB has sparked the offense to a pair of impressive wins over CSU and Fresno, while the defense (Mendenhall's specialty) has been doing its job since earlier in season and is allowing only 20.5 ppg. Meanwhile the Aztecs continue to spin their wheels for HC Sean Lewis, and even if he has recovered from his recent ankle injury, no reason to fear scatter-armed SDSU QB Jayden Denegal, while backup Stone Saunders passed for a lot of empty yards vs. CSU in a game the Aztecs lost two weeks ago at Fort Collins. Play Utah State

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I’m backing Indiana here, and the quarterback decision doesn’t change the play. Josh Hoover has been upgraded to available coming out of the bye, but Curt Cignetti has yet to officially name a starter. Whether it’s Hoover or Grant Wilson, the foundation of this handicap is the Hoosiers’ defense.

Indiana’s offense hasn’t been producing big numbers. The Hoosiers have scored 20, 15, 13, and 23 points in their last four games—and that 23-point performance included just 16 in regulation, with the other seven coming in overtime. Yet Indiana still went 3–1 during that stretch. That tells you how much this team has leaned on its defense. Only one opponent has scored more than 19 points against the Hoosiers all season.

USC also comes off a bye, but this could be a spot where the Trojans are feeling a little “fat and sassy” after beating an Ohio State team playing with its backup quarterback. My concern with USC is how it handles physical opponents, particularly on the road. Indiana presents exactly that kind of challenge, and I don’t expect the Trojans to generate many points against this defense.

On the other side, I expect Indiana to find enough opportunities against USC’s defense regardless of who starts at QB. Wilson threw for 157 yards in relief in the Hoosiers’ last game. If he gets the nod, two weeks of preparation should put him in a better position to produce. And by keeping the decision unannounced, Cignetti gives USC two potential quarterbacks to account for in its preparation.

This isn’t a bet on Indiana suddenly becoming an explosive offensive team. It’s a bet on the Hoosiers’ defense controlling the game and their offense finding enough success against a favorable matchup. Hoover or Wilson, I’m on Indiana.

TAKE INDIANA

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3% Texas A&M (3:00 ET): This is a client play that I'm giving out for free. The full breakdown is for subscribers only. You can also click the video below for additional thoughts. I will let you know that this play was released BEFORE the FAA shutdown, which has impacted Tennessee's travel. That's a situation we should continue to monitor. Obviously, the line has since moved in A&M's direction.

Even before the travel issue, this wasn't a great spot for the Volunteers, who are already dealing with some key injuries along the offensive and defensive lines. Not to mention backup RB Duane Morris is also out after being involved in a car accident. This is a Tennessee offense that ranks just 127th in passing yards. QB George MacIntyre is making just his second career road start. I thought the Vols' final margin of victory last week against Kentucky was misleading. That was a 13-6 game going into the 4Q.

Last week, Texas A&M became the first team in College Football HISTORY to finish with 450+ total yards, not turn the ball over and not score a single TD! It was a classic "bad beat" for Aggies' backers in the 17-9 loss at South Carolina. A&M is clearly better than its 4-5 SU record. With a red zone defense that ranks #1 nationally, I think they pull the "upset" here. It's certainly telling that the #8 team in the country would be such a short favorite against an unranked opponent. 3% Texas A&M (Play ML if favored)

Don't miss Bryan Power's 5% MAX BET for Saturday. It's only his SECOND 5% MAX BET of the season in College Football (he won the first). BP enters the weekend on an AWESOME 21-7 run with ALL football!

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON conference home favorites of -4 to -8.5 that are averaging 28-34 points per game if their opponent is allowing an average of 16-21 points per game.

Applies to BYU.

20-4 ATS (83.3%) since the 2022 season, covering the spread by an average of 8 points!

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Good to +4 -115

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Rice is 0-8 this season against FBS teams. Yet here they are as a 2.5 to 3.0-point home favorite on Sunday against a Tulane team that made it to the College Football Playoffs just 2 years ago. However, the strength of Rice's offense is running the football and that's been especially apparent over the last 3 contests in which they averaged 349.7 yards rushing per game. Conversely, Tulane has allowed an average of 234.8 yards rushing per contest over its last 5 games. look for Rice to run the ball successfully and control time of possession while keeping their porous defense on the sideline for much of the game.

Rice lost their last 2 games by scores of 51-49 to FAU and 52-23 versus North Texas. Tulane is coming off a humiliating 60-10 home loss to Tulsa. College Football home teams like Rice that allowed 37 points or more in its last 2 games and is facing an opponent like Tulane that lost their previous game by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-4 (84%) since 2017.

Bet the Rice Owls as a point-spread favorite of -3.0 or lower.

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4-0 (100%) as part of going 19-3 (86%) All 3%+ football sides.

Wagertalk's #1 Ranked NFL & CFB handicapper overall this season (Return On Investment).

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Talked about this bet on the Saturday college football betting show here:

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Take Detroit (#262)

The 'Daily Double' video below offers my 'Free Play' opinions for Lions - Patriots from Germany and Cowboys - 49ers from Dallas. Here's a brief write-up for the early start game in Munich.

The Patriots injury report is ugly, a 'bet-against' team for this bettor in this pointspread range until proven otherwise. Don't underestimate the 'cluster' injuries for Mike Vrabel's squad. They could be missing five of their top weapons on offense (Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson, AJ Brown, Romeo Doubs and Hunter Henry all questionable or out). The Pats also have cluster injuries in their secondary and on their offensive line; bad news against the Lions explosive passing game and strong pass rush. If I'm playing, I'm laying! Take the Lions.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Catching the Cats as the short home favorite against the Gators. This Florida offense has gone dormant in recent weeks. Kentucky likely bounces back off an ugly loss being back in Lexington. This missed the client card- For Saturday’s free pick- Bet Kentucky.

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Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Tulane travels to Rice on Saturday in a matchup featuring two struggling American Conference offenses, and the underlying efficiency metrics strongly support a lower-scoring contest. While both defenses have been vulnerable, neither offense has demonstrated the passing efficiency or finishing ability I want when backing a total at the existing number. The strongest Under argument begins with Tulane, whose offense ranks near the bottom of the country in several important efficiency categories. The Green Wave average only 21.1 points and 332.4 yards per game, including 193.2 passing yards. They complete just 58.1% of their passes at 6.7 yards per attempt and have thrown only seven touchdown passes through nine games. Tulane also ranks 134th nationally in offensive success rate at 35.9% and 122nd in points per scoring opportunity at 2.98. Those numbers reflect an offense that struggles not only to sustain possessions, but also to turn favorable field position into touchdowns. The protection issues make that inefficiency even more concerning as the Green Wave have allowed 24 sacks, and Trace Johnson enters with 818 passing yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. Tulane is coming off a 60-10 loss to Tulsa, and expecting an immediate offensive rebound requires substantial improvement from a passing game that has struggled throughout the season.

Rice’s offense provides a different but equally compelling path to the Under. The Owls run the football on approximately 75% of their snaps, compared with only about 25% passing. That extreme run-heavy profile naturally keeps the clock moving and limits possession volume. Rice has generated significant rushing production, but its passing game offers very little ability to quickly create points or recover from negative game scripts. The Owls complete only 49.5% of their passes, and Jacob Brown has thrown for only 478 yards through nine games. Rice also ranks near the bottom nationally in passing success rate and passing efficiency. That lack of balance matters because Tulane can devote additional defensive resources to slowing the option without facing the same downfield punishment that a more balanced offense could provide. Rice’s problems on third down further reduce its scoring ceiling as the Owls convert only 25.8% of their third downs, creating the type of game Under bettors want: extended stretches of running clock followed by stalled possessions and punts.

The obvious concern is defensive form. Rice has allowed 52, 51, and 38 points in its past three games, while Tulane was just beaten 60-10. Those results make the Under uncomfortable, but they are also likely influencing perception of this matchup. Rice’s recent defensive opponents have repeatedly forced the Owls into higher-scoring environments, whereas Tulane arrives with one of the least efficient offenses on Rice’s schedule. The key distinction is that poor defense does not automatically produce a shootout when the opposing offenses lack efficiency. Tulane averages just 5.2 yards per play, while Rice averages 5.6. Their respective scoring rates are almost identical at approximately 0.33 and 0.32 points per play. The overall game script should also be favorable. Rice wants to run the football and consume clock, while Tulane has shown little ability to generate explosive passing production.

My technical database provides further support for the Under:

• Play UNDER: Road teams coming off a game in which they allowed at least 56 points have produced a 243-165 UNDER record (59.6%) since 1989, generating +61.5 units and a +13.7% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams that allowed at least 50 points in their previous game, facing an opponent that scored 10 or fewer points in its previous game, have produced a 155-103 UNDER record (60.1%) since 1989, generating +41.7 units and a +14.7% ROI. This system applies when evaluated from Rice's perspective following its 52-point defensive performance against North Texas and Tulane's 10-point offensive output against Tulsa.

• Play UNDER: Teams facing opponents that have allowed at least 50 points in each of their previous two games have produced a 47-29 UNDER record (61.8%) since 2018, generating +15.1 units and an +18.1% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams entering off a game in which they allowed at least 60 points are 150-97 to the Under (60.7%) since 1989, generating +43.3 units and a +15.9% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams arriving off a game in which they allowed at least 60 points, provided they are not underdogs of +20 or more, are 104-45 to the Under (69.8%) since 1989, generating +54.5 units and a +33.3% ROI.

Tulane's offensive deficiencies and Rice's run-dominant option attack provide a strong statistical foundation for a lower-scoring contest. The Green Wave have struggled to sustain possessions, protect their quarterback, and finish drives, while Rice's limited passing production makes the Owls heavily dependent on extended rushing possessions. These characteristics, combined with several historically profitable UNDER situations, support a game featuring fewer scoring opportunities than the teams' recent defensive performances might suggest. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

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Carolina travels to New Orleans looking to snap a three-game losing streak, and the Panthers possess several compelling statistical and situational advantages against a Saints team that has struggled mightily on its home field. Both NFC South rivals enter with identical 3-5 records, but Carolina has been the more productive offensive team, averaging 24.9 points and 362.4 total yards per game compared to New Orleans' 23.1 points and 325.8 yards. The Panthers also possess a significant advantage in yards per play (5.5 to 4.9), suggesting their offensive production has been more efficient despite their disappointing record. Quarterback Bryce Young has thrown for 2,197 yards and sixteen touchdowns, and his underlying performance metrics reveal an especially favorable matchup against a New Orleans defense that ranks 27th in quarterback pressure rate. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Young ranks third among quarterbacks in play-action passing grade and second in passing yards generated off play action (817), while the Saints rank 26th in yards allowed per play-action dropback. Young also ranks tenth in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, an important advantage against a New Orleans pass rush that has consistently struggled to generate pressure. Carolina's rushing attack presents another exploitable matchup, as Chuba Hubbard ranks ninth among NFL running backs in yards after contact per carry and faces a Saints defense that ranks 26th in yards after contact allowed per rushing attempt. Hubbard has accumulated 619 rushing yards this season and should benefit from facing a New Orleans defense surrendering 133.9 rushing yards per game. The Saints have also been vulnerable through the air, allowing 236.6 passing yards per game and surrendering scores on 45.6% of opposing possessions, creating opportunities for Young to exploit favorable downfield matchups.

New Orleans enters following a narrow 23-22 victory over Cleveland, but the Saints have won just once in five home games and own a negative-six turnover differential through eight contests. Tyler Shough has completed 66.2% of his passes for 1,986 yards and fourteen touchdowns, but Carolina's defense has been considerably more effective against the pass, allowing just 211.5 yards per game compared to New Orleans' 236.6. The Panthers also possess the superior turnover differential (-1 versus -6), and their defense allows fewer yards per play (5.3 versus 5.7), further illustrating Carolina's underlying statistical advantages. With New Orleans laying points despite its poor home performance and Carolina possessing several favorable offensive matchups, the Panthers offer attractive value as divisional road underdogs.

My technical database provides further support for Carolina:

• Play On: Underdogs in the Carolina-New Orleans series are 17-6 ATS (73.9%) since November 2014, generating +10.4 units and a +41.1% ROI;

• Play On: Carolina is 12-2 ATS (85.7%) following an ATS loss since November 2024, generating +9.8 units and a +63.6% ROI;

• Play On: Carolina is 11-2 ATS (84.6%) following a straight-up loss since the 2025 season, generating +8.8 units and a +61.5% ROI;

• Play On: Carolina is 15-2 ATS (88.2%) as an underdog following a loss since October 2024, generating +12.8 units and a +68.5% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams facing opponents coming off a win by three or fewer points in a game that exceeded the posted total are 245-169 ATS (59.2%) since 1997, generating +59.1 units and a +13.0% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams coming off an overtime victory at home are 123-87 ATS (58.6%) since 1989, generating +27.3 units and a +11.8% ROI for their opponents;

• Play Against: Teams coming off a home overtime victory without the benefit of a subsequent bye week are 119-79 ATS (60.1%) since 1989, generating +32.1 units and a +14.7% ROI for their opponents;

• Play On: .500 or worse underdogs entering off three consecutive losses, with totals between 38.5 and 54 points, are 255-174 ATS (59.4%) since 1990, generating +63.6 units and a +13.5% ROI;

• Play On: Conference underdogs of six points or fewer coming off a loss are 322-259 ATS (55.4%) since 2017, generating +37.1 units and a +5.8% ROI;

• Play On: Divisional road underdogs of fewer than seven points are 424-332 ATS (56.1%) since 2006, generating +58.8 units and a +7.1% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams coming off an overtime victory are 128-98 ATS (56.6%) since 2011, generating +20.2 units and an +8.1% ROI for their opponents.

These historical angles complement several tangible matchup advantages, particularly Young's ability to exploit a New Orleans defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in generating quarterback pressure and defending play-action passes. Young's 817 passing yards off play action rank second among NFL quarterbacks, and his third-ranked PFF play-action grade suggests Carolina can generate explosive opportunities against a Saints defense that ranks 26th in yards allowed per play-action dropback. Hubbard's ninth-ranked yards-after-contact efficiency provides another favorable matchup against a New Orleans front seven that ranks 26th in yards after contact allowed per rush. Carolina also owns advantages in total offense, yards per play, passing defense, and turnover differential, making it difficult to justify New Orleans laying points despite winning only once in five home games. The Saints have struggled to convert their offensive production into consistent victories, and their defensive deficiencies create an ideal opportunity for Carolina to reverse its recent fortunes. Look for Young to capitalize on favorable play-action opportunities, Hubbard to establish offensive balance, and the Panthers to remain competitive throughout this NFC South showdown. Take Carolina as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, November 15.

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If you only looked at the box score last week, you would thing that LSU won comfortable in Death Valley, as the Tigers outgained Alabama 457-285. The reason for the loss was turnovers and an inability to convert in the red zone, issues that I’m sure Lane Kiffin has addressed in practice this week. In comes overrated Texas, with an inaccurate quarterback in Arch Manning who makes poor decisions as well. Many believe that LSU is the most talented team in the nation and just need to put it all together, and there’s a reason this line is holding above the key number of 3. Expect the Tigers to force turnovers and have a great game at night in Death Valley as they get the cover in this one. Take LSU.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Baylor hits the road off back-to-back big offensive games.  The Bears scored 83 points in their last two wins against a couple of weak defensive teams.  They are now taking a big step-up in class on the road against a team that will be very focused for this game.  BYU returns home off a road loss to their rival Utah.  The Cougars have also lost 2 of their last 3 games after opening the season with a 6-0 record. BYU plays terrific defense at home where they only give up 15.6 points per game on just 4.2 yards per play.  Baylor’s offense will be hard-pressed to match their recent scoring output, and with BYU desperate for a win, expect a focused and conservative game plan resulting in a low-scoring game on Saturday afternoon.

Play UNDER the total.

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Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

In Uros Medic’s most recent fight we placed a 5% wager on him to finish Daniel Rodriguez by knockout (-140). Medic delivered the knockout shot just 30 seconds into the opening round. Easy cash! That result has us returning to the same approach for his matchup against Kevin Holland. Several clear factors continue to favor Medic in this spot. One of the most significant issues with Holland is a noticeable lack of motivation. He has spoken openly about having little interest in climbing the UFC rankings and has expressed no real desire to compete for a title. In a recent interview he indicated that he plans to retire in the near future and has no intention of re-signing once his current deal expires. These comments point to a fighter who is not fully invested in the outcome of individual bouts. Medic on the other hand, remains sharply focused and committed to steadily improving his overall game. The stylistic matchup also works in Medic’s favor. Holland is a long, rangy striker who can throw solid combinations, yet he often lacks the technical precision required against a sharp counter-puncher. Although he will hold a 10 inch reach advantage, he frequently fails to use that length effectively. Has a tendency to wing wild shots and overextend, which leaves him open to clean counters. In tighter exchanges he looks less comfortable and can struggle once the fight moves into the pocket. Medic is an explosive striker who carries legitimate one-punch power. He presses forward aggressively from the opening bell and that pressure should create problems for Holland on the feet. Medic’s biggest edge comes from the combination of quick hands and real stopping power. Those tools should allow him to find success in exchanges and land heavy shots. Defensively Holland remains vulnerable and is there to be hit. It should not take many clean connections from Medic to end the night early. The possibility of Holland looking for takedowns appears limited. Across his last 18 UFC fights dating back to 2021, he has recorded only 7 successful takedowns. This suggests the contest will largely be decided standing. Another concern showed up in Holland’s recent bout against Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez managed to drop Holland twice despite not carrying significant power in his hands. That result serves as a clear warning sign. If a fighter with modest power can hurt Holland, Medic should be more than capable of finishing the fight by knockout. Over Medic's 14 career victories, 12 of those were by KO and fully expecting him to add to that total Saturday night.

Free Play:

Uros Medic win by knockout (+115)

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This is a free play on SMU.

The Mustangs have had a somewhat disappointing season, two years removed from an appearance in the College Football Playoffs. Wake is the Playoff contender heading into this game, and they are getting a ton of respect from bookmakers. While I think Wake is a good team, and they deserve respect... they shouldn't be a favorite on the road at SMU. These teams played last year with Wake winning 13-12. That makes this a revenge spot for an SMU team that plays very well at home. Kevin Jennings has been plagued by turnovers (on the road), but his home/away splits suggest that might not be an issue here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The market is forcing bettors to pay a premium for these teams' contrasting trajectories. Oregon is coming off an impressive 41-28 road victory over Ohio State, while Michigan just lost 15-6 to Michigan State and responded by changing offensive coordinators. That combination has pushed the Wolverines into the role of a 10.5-point road underdog, creating value on a Michigan team whose defense has been considerably better than its 5-4 record suggests. Michigan’s offense is unquestionably the concern. The Wolverines are averaging only 19.6 points and 302.6 yards per game, including just 173.9 through the air. They managed only six points against Michigan State, while Tommy Carr completed 53.9% of his passes for 138 yards with two interceptions and was sacked five times, reopening the quarterback competition between Carr and Bryce Underwood. The more compelling betting argument is Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines allow only 16.2 points, 255.4 total yards and 100.6 rushing yards per game. Oregon, by comparison, is allowing 22.1 points and 349.7 yards. Michigan’s ability to defend without needing significant offensive support has kept it competitive throughout the season, as each of the Wolverines’ four losses has come by fewer than 10 points, including 20-14 at Minnesota, 13-6 against Indiana, and 15-6 against Michigan State. That is particularly relevant when the market is now giving Michigan 10.5. John Henry Daley provides an important disruptive presence on the edge with six sacks, while veteran safety Rod Moore anchors a secondary that allows only 154.8 passing yards per game. That unit now faces an Oregon offense that produced 15 points against UCLA, 17 against Nebraska, and 10 against Illinois. Oregon has not consistently demonstrated the offensive floor of a team I want to lay double digits with against this caliber of defense.

The game environment strengthens the case for taking the points. A total below 42 combined with Michigan +10.5 means the spread accounts for roughly a quarter of all expected scoring. At the current total, the market is essentially asking Oregon to create substantial separation in a game expected to feature limited scoring. There is also potential situational value following Oregon’s emotional victory at Ohio State. The Ducks entered that game as 7.5-point underdogs and won 41-28, producing their best result of the season and immediately restoring optimism around the program. Oregon returns home as a double-digit favorite against a struggling opponent, which is a dramatically different psychological and betting position. Michigan’s offensive coordinator change adds uncertainty, but Kyle Whittingham has made clear that a complete schematic overhaul is unrealistic this late in the season. However, I expect Whittingham to simplify the offense, emphasize the running game, reduce obvious passing situations, and find enough additional efficiency to complement an already capable defense.

Another element of variance is worth noting. Oregon has lost eight fumbles at home, one of the highest figures nationally. Michigan cannot build the handicap around forcing turnovers, but one short field could dramatically change the spread calculus in such a low-total matchup. My technical database provides substantial support for Michigan, with several historically profitable ATS systems involving road underdogs, low-scoring conference matchups, and unranked teams facing ranked opponents.

• Play On: Unranked teams priced between -4 and +13 vs. ranked opponents, with totals between 30 and 46.5 points, are 201-128 ATS (61.1%) since 1998, generating +60.2 units and a +16.6% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +3 or greater with totals below 46 points are 497-364 ATS (57.7%) since 2000, generating +96.6 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play On: Unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game, with totals of 47 points or fewer, are 496-391 ATS (55.9%) since 1991, generating +65.9 units and a +6.8% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +7 or greater with totals of 48 points or fewer are 531-408 ATS (56.5%) since 1989, generating +82.2 units and a +8.0% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams in games with posted totals below 40 points are 203-139 ATS (59.4%) since 1989, generating +50.1 units and a +13.3% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of +3 to +11.5 coming off an upset loss as double-digit favorites are 92-54 ATS (63.0%) since 1989, generating +32.6 units and a +20.3% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of fewer than 25 points, with totals below 46, against opponents coming off an ATS victory from Week 7 onward are 213-156 ATS (57.7%) since 1989, generating +41.4 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play Against: Teams coming off an upset victory over a top-15 opponent are 104-132 ATS (44.1%) since 2017, with opponents generating +17.6 units and a +6.8% ROI;

• Play On: Kyle Whittingham-coached underdogs coming off an ATS loss are 24-7 ATS (77.4%) since 2005, generating +16.3 units and a +47.8% ROI.

Oregon deserves to be favored, but the market is asking a different question: is Oregon sufficiently superior to beat a defensively capable Michigan team by at least 11 points? The season-long evidence makes that considerably harder to justify. Michigan has yet to lose by double digits, allows only 16.2 points per game, and enters a matchup carrying a total below 42. Even if the Wolverines remain limited offensively, their defense gives them a viable path to forcing the type of game where +10.5 becomes extremely valuable. Take Michigan as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Mississippi State (#128)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below offers my ‘Free Play’ opinions for Ohio State – Northwestern and Auburn – Mississippi State in early start action on Saturday.  Here’s a brief write-up for Tigers – Bulldogs.

My clients and I cashed a winning bet against Auburn last week when they had to rally from behind at home to beat lowly Arkansas by a field goal.  I have no hesitation fading the Tigers again this week in Cowbell Country.  Auburn had one magical day this season when they pulled an outright upset at Georgia (on a day the Bulldogs were flat after a war with Alabama the previous week), but they’ve been consistently overvalued ever since that single victory.  Mississippi State played much better last week, and now they’re facing a team they can beat even without Kamario Taylor in the lineup.  Live home dog here! Take Mississippi State.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

The market is pricing Saturday’s Big 12 matchup for another shootout after Texas Tech and Oklahoma State combined for 119 points in their most recent games, but that is exactly what creates value on Under 73. A total this high requires both offenses to sustain extreme scoring efficiency, and the number leaves meaningful room for regression without requiring either offense to play poorly. Texas Tech’s 53-48 victory over West Virginia was an extreme offensive environment, as the Red Raiders generated 638 yards, including 276 on the ground, while Thomas Castellanos threw for 362 yards and five touchdowns and added 102 rushing yards. At the same time, Texas Tech surrendered 582 yards and 48 points without forcing a turnover. Oklahoma State enters from an even more extreme result, scoring 66 points against Kansas State. The Cowboys generated 565 yards and built a 49-14 halftime advantage after scoring 28 points in the opening quarter. That kind of early-game scoring efficiency is inherently difficult to project, and the Under does not require either offense to suddenly become inefficient. It requires the teams to fall short of the extraordinary pace established by their most recent performances.

Oklahoma State’s defensive performance against Kansas State also provides more encouragement than the 66-28 final might suggest. The Cowboys limited the Wildcats to 327 total yards and generated three interceptions. That turnover creation becomes particularly important against Thomas Castellanos, whose dual-threat ability creates enormous upside but also places substantial responsibility on the quarterback. If Oklahoma State can force even a handful of negative possessions, Texas Tech’s scoring pace should fall well below last week’s extraordinary level. The same regression argument applies to Oklahoma State. Drew Mestemaker has produced 29 touchdown passes, but Texas Tech enters 8-1 and owns the stronger overall power profile. The Red Raiders’ defensive performance against West Virginia was poor, but extrapolating that one result into another 40-plus-point allowance assumes Texas Tech makes virtually no adjustment after its most vulnerable defensive performance.

There is also a potentially helpful weather component. The current forecast calls for winds around 11 mph with gusts reaching 24 mph at Boone Pickens Stadium, which would complicate vertical passing and kicking efficiency. In a game that demands extraordinary offensive production, even a modest reduction in explosive passing or field-goal reliability benefits the Under. My technical database provides further support for the Under:

• Play UNDER: Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, from Week 5 forward, are 297-229 (56.5%) since 1989, generating +45.1 units and a +7.8% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, with fewer than 10 days of rest, are 548-444 (55.2%) since 1989, generating +59.6 units and a +5.5% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points and allowed at least 45 points, with posted totals of 50 or higher, are 482-373 (56.4%) since 2013, generating +71.7 units and a +7.6% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Teams coming off games in which they scored at least 30 points and gave up at least 45 points, with totals of 60 or higher, are 276-217 (56.0%) since 2013, generating +37.3 units and a +6.9% ROI;

• Play UNDER: .501 or greater teams entering off games that exceeded the closing total by at least 30 points, vs. .501 or greater opponents are 229-168 (57.7%) since 1989, generating +44.2 units and a +10.1% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Home teams coming off victories by 35 or more points vs. opponents that are not coming off road victories are 135-104 (56.5%) since 2022, generating +20.6 units and a +7.8% ROI;

• Play UNDER: Home teams with posted totals above 60 points are 451-390 (53.6%) since 2021, generating +22.0 units and a +2.4% ROI.

Both teams are coming off extraordinary scoring performances, including Oklahoma State’s unsustainable 49-point first half and Texas Tech’s 101-point shootout, causing the market to react aggressively. With Oklahoma State showing improved defensive disruption, Texas Tech having obvious incentive to correct last week’s defensive breakdowns, and the total requiring another exceptionally efficient performance from both offenses, 73.0 provides enough cushion to back a more normalized scoring environment. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

East Carolina travels to Charlotte on Saturday, looking to extend its two-game winning streak against a 49ers squad that has struggled on both sides of the ball throughout the season. The Pirates improved to 5-4 following an impressive 20-17 victory over South Florida, generating 361 total yards, 25 first downs, and a decisive defensive performance that limited the Bulls to just one conversion in ten third-down opportunities. Quarterback Emory Williams completed 19 of 27 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns, while Ashton Gray provided balance with 101 rushing yards on 18 carries. East Carolina's offense has struggled with consistency, scoring 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games, but Charlotte's defense presents an excellent opportunity for the Pirates to regain their offensive rhythm. The 49ers rank last nationally in scoring defense (137th), surrendering 38.3 points per game, and have been particularly vulnerable late in games, allowing an FBS-worst 11.0 fourth-quarter points per contest. Charlotte's offense has been equally ineffective, scoring fewer than 13 points in five of its nine games and averaging just 234 total yards in last week's 23-12 loss to UAB. The 49ers managed only ten first downs against the Blazers and converted just four of seventeen third-down opportunities, illustrating their inability to sustain possessions. Quarterback Conner Harrell completed 15 of 31 passes for 175 yards against UAB, while Charlotte's rushing attack produced little, led by Khamani Alexander's 40 yards. East Carolina's defense should be particularly effective against this one-dimensional attack after limiting South Florida to 329 total yards and just a 10% third-down conversion rate.

The Pirates are better than their record suggests, as two of their four losses came in overtime against UAB and Memphis. In contrast, Charlotte has dropped eight of nine games, including six consecutive losses to open the season, and its lone victory came against Temple. East Carolina's ability to control possession with its running game, combined with Charlotte's offensive inefficiency and disastrous fourth-quarter defense, creates a favorable matchup for the Pirates to gradually extend their advantage. The disparity in overall team quality, recent performance, and situational circumstances strongly favors East Carolina against the spread.

My technical database provides further support for East Carolina:

• Play Against: Charlotte at home is 22-67 ATS (24.7%) since November 2021, generating +15.4 units and a +50.0% ROI for bettors opposing the 49ers;

• Play Against: Teams coming off a game in which they scored no more than one touchdown against opponents riding winning streaks of at least two games are 531-435 ATS against (55.0%) since 2011, generating +52.5 units and a +4.9% ROI;

• Play On: Road favorites of -6.5 to -19 points that won at least three games the previous season, coming off a game as favorites against opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, are 702-586 ATS (54.5%) since 2013, generating +57.4 units and a +4.0% ROI;

• Play On: Double-digit road favorites playing with 6-9 days of rest vs. opponents playing with 6-9 days of rest are 691-557 ATS (55.4%) since 2009, generating +78.3 units and a +5.7% ROI;

East Carolina possesses significant advantages in offensive balance, defensive execution, and recent form, while Charlotte continues to struggle with sustained offensive production and fourth-quarter defensive breakdowns. The Pirates have won consecutive games against Temple and South Florida, and their ability to limit opponents on third down should prove particularly valuable against a Charlotte offense that converted just 23.5% of its third-down opportunities last week. With the 49ers allowing more than 38 points per game and possessing one of the nation's least productive offenses, East Carolina is well positioned to control this matchup and cover the number. Lay the points with the Pirates as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 14.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This will be the first meeting between the Tigers and Bulldogs since Auburn's 27-13 home win in October 2023. Mississippi State is 0-5 straight-up and against the spread following last week's home loss to Vanderbilt. During this five-game losing skid, Mississippi State has scored an average of 12.8 points per game as the Bulldogs struggle to replace the production of injured QB Kamario Taylor. Five of the Bulldogs' last six games have stayed under the total. Auburn snapped a two-game losing skid with a 26-23 home win over Arkansas. Despite the victory, the Tigers are just 1-6 against the spread over their last seven games. Backing the Bulldogs hasn't been much fun in recent weeks, but we're inclined to give Mississippi State a shot. Hail State plays FCS-level Tennessee Tech next week (we're going to pencil in a win), so Mississippi State needs to win this game to become bowl eligible. After such a strong start to the season, you have to imagine that Jeff Lebby can keep his team motivated with that carrot. AJ Swann isn't going to be able to replicate what Taylor did for this offense, but he provides a veteran presence that can make enough necessary plays to get the Bulldogs across this finish line. Running back Fluff Bothwell caught five passes last week against Vanderbilt, so Lebby is looking for creative ways to get the ball in his hands. Auburn can hang its hat on the upset win at Georgia, but the Tigers are 0-3 against the spread in their other three games away from home this season.
Play Mississippi State

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Saints have won five of the last six meetings, including a pair of outright upsets last year. Carolina is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread over its last three games following last week's 26-21 home loss to Denver. The Panthers have allowed an average of 27.2 points per game over the last five contests. New Orleans is 1-5 against the spread over the last six games, but the Saints did pick up an outright win over Cleveland last week. New Orleans continues to produce terrible offensive numbers in the first half. After a 3-3 first half tie with Cleveland last week, the Saints are now 1-7 against the first half spread this season. New Orleans has only scored in the first quarter two times in eight games, producing a total of nine first quarter points this season. Perhaps the potential return of running back Travis Etienne Jr. is just what the voodoo doctor ordered in the French Quarter. Etienne Jr. has not played since Week 3 against the Raiders, but he is expected to return to practice this week after dealing with a hamstring injury. New Orleans has the second-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL this season (Raiders last), so his potential return would be a big boost for the Saints' offense. Carolina is running out of healthy bodies on defense. A unit that already has five players on IR was missing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke last week against the Broncos. If New Orleans can't muster some early scoring against this defense, then Kellen Moore needs to tear it all down and start over. Don't forget, owner Gayle Benson has been keeping a closer-than-normal eye on her team in recent weeks and wrote a letter to the Saints' fan base after the loss to Pittsburgh in Paris. Last week's win over Cleveland was a small step in the right direction, but a home win over a division opponent would go a long way toward rebuilding excitement after Who Dat Nation watched their team lose its first three home games this season.
Play New Orleans Saints

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

UAB won the lone meeting between these American Conference foes with a 34-24 home victory in 2023. Temple was involved in one of the wildest under-the-radar results last week against Navy. The Owls fell behind 28-0 in the second quarter but fought all the way back to tie the game before eventually losing in the final minute. Temple scored 35 points in a game where they had 19 minutes of possession and nine first downs. UAB needs one more win to reach bowl eligibility, and this would be the spot to get it. The Blazers end the year with games against UTSA and North Texas, so this clash with Temple represents the best chance to reach that sixth win. With a regular season win total of 3.5 entering the year, Alex Mortensen's team has already exceeded expectations. It certainly wasn't pretty, but UAB earned a 23-13 home win over Charlotte last week. The Blazers' defense held the 49ers to 234 total yards and ten first downs. Charlotte didn't score its first touchdown until there was one minute remaining in garbage time. While this game isn't expected to see quite the same wind effects as some others this weekend, there is still the potential for gusts of 25+ miles per hour after the Nor'Easter passes through the Mid-Atlantic. Temple has been competitive all season for KC Keeler, but at some point, the Owls need to turn those strong showings into actual wins. Temple has one win over an FBS-level opponent this season. Until the cherry-and-white get over that hump, they're not giving us much reason to back them at the betting window. That potential sixth win can be a big motivational chip for Mortensen’s Blazers. Play UAB

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on ARI.

Utah is still undefeated, but their strength of schedule is questionable. They are coming off a win over BYU in a rivalry game, setting them up for a let down. They are on the road at Arizona, laying points despite the fact that they are facing a Top 5 QB in the conference for the first time. Arizona is undefeated at home this season, and 11-1 in their last 12 conference home games. Take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Florida has lost some momentum lately, but this is still a team that’s won on the road at Texas and Auburn and beaten Ole Miss at home. Kentucky, meanwhile, got a reality check last week in a 34-6 blowout at Tennessee. Even when the Wildcats do win, it’s often by a razor-thin margin, like their one-point escapes against South Carolina and LSU. The chilly weather won’t do the Gators any favors, but I still think they’re in a strong position to pull off the upset. Grab the points at +3 or better.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

When these two teams played earlier his season, the over/under was set at 45.5, and they blew past it with 61 combined points. This weekend’s rematch carries a noticeably lower total, which provides value on the over. Yes, Minnesota’s games have tended to be low-scoring, but Green Bay’s haven’t. The Packers put up 45 points on their own last week in a 72-point shootout with New England, and the week before that, their game against Carolina totalled 46. I cashed the under in the Vikings’ game against Buffalo, but this Sunday I’m going the other way. Play the Over

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

PLAY: Dallas +4.5

We were on the Niners on Sunday. Easiest cash of the day! We were also on the Colts +5 versus the Cowboys. Dallas put up 508 yards in Indianapolis without George Pickens. Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and the ground game added 179 more, with Javonte Williams going for 101 and Tyler Goodson adding 77 on 12 carries.

Prescott has 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions on the season, and the Cowboys have run for 179 yards or more in two of their last three games. Rookie Caleb Downs sealed the win in Indy with his first career interception.

San Francisco is a Super Bowl contender sitting 7-1, but it has been a road favorite only once this year and lost that game 29-20 in Atlanta with four turnovers. The receiver room is thin, too. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk all sat out last week, and Ricky Pearsall is done for the season. Maybe they can do it all with Kittle and McCaffrey, but that's a big ask.

Grab the points with the Cowboys at home.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

In a matchup of two teams already essentially playing out the string, there is little reason to be conservative. The Colts are allowing 27.7 ppg. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 ppg. Indianapolis has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last five games and has seen five of its past six games produce a minimum of 26 points. Go with the over.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

I played against Virginia Tech last week. The Hokies got hammered 51-28 at SMU. The Mustangs had a 569 to 417 edge in yards. Off that big loss and with Miami (followed by instate rival Virginia) on deck, I feel that the Hokies may have some trouble getting up for Stanford. The Cardinal have been known to pull off some big upsets. Don't be surprised when they give their hosts all they can handle.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago