(47) Carolina Hurricanes at (48) Montreal Canadiens: Moneyline

2% Carolina Hurricanes -135. Play as a 1.5% at -151 and higher

AF to -200 playing with sane season revenge for a loss as HF are 567-312 (65%)

Carolina is 45-25 and the current #1 seed in the East 1 pt ahead of BUF and 5 pts ahead of TB.

Since mid-Jan they are 16-6 and with a total >=6.5 they are 13-2.

Carolina lost the final meeting LY and then lost 7-5 as a HF on Jan 1^st/

The Panthers are 10-1 revenging a loss this season with the avg win 4.9-2.4.

Montreal has split their L14 games coming off a 7-3 vs vs the Islanders but they are 2-6 after scoring 6+ goals

While the Canadiens have 2 days of rest they are only 6-9 in that role incl 4-6 at home.
When facing a team with a win% >54% they are 8-14 inlc 4-7 at Home

Released/revised 33 minute(s) ago

Good to -11.5

This is a brutal spot for St. Joe's, who now have to play in one of the toughest places in all of college basketball, at altitude, and in the 3rd straight road game...Out West... I watched them empty the tank against Cal's last game, and it looked like they were just out of gas after coming back from down 19 and going scoreless for the final 2 minutes. They barely held on and now have to head back West, only this time at an altitude in the PIT, which KenPom ranks as the 14th best home court advantage in all of CBB. Both their games to start in the NIT have been physical and exhausting, while New Mexico has been on a shooting tear, hitting 24 of 61 from 3-point range, and they've looked like a team on a mission from game 1 of this tournament vs Sam Houston St. St Joe's could certainly hang around early in this game but I believe by the time the second half rolls around, they'll just run out of gas and New Mexico will pull away for the win and cover. The number seems high, but the situational spot calls for it. Lay it with New Mexico.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Wichita State and Tulsa will be playing for the 3rd time this season.  The Shockers won on their home floor, and then on a neutral in the conference tournament.  However, Tulsa led for 37 of the 40 minutes in the game on Wichita State’s home court.  The Golden Hurricane scored just 2 total points over the final 4 minutes of the game, and they ended up losing by 4 points.  Despite the loss, Tulsa was the superior team, and now they get the rematch on their home court where they are 15-2 SU on the season.  Wichita State was just a 2.5-point underdog in their last win at a terrible Oklahoma State team, so there’s value in laying a short price with the much better team in this game on Tuesday night.

Play TULSA (-).

-------------------

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Released/revised 56 minute(s) ago

Orlando arrives in Cleveland off a 128-126 loss to the Pacers last night, while the Cavaliers are coming off a 111-106 win over New Orleans. Since 1989, .451 or greater non-divisional favorites by more than 9 points in games with totals of 220-231.5 points are 279-170-12 to the Over (62.1%) versus opponents entering off a loss from Game 31 forward, including 258-155-11 ATS (62.5%) since the beginning of the 2014-15 season. This situation has gone over the total by an average margin of +4.2 points per game over the last ten years. The foregoing trend contains a profitable 165-88-6 (65.2%) subset angle dating to 1989 and investing on the over in games involving favorites arriving off an against-the-spread win, going over by an average margin of +5.8 points per game. The team’s disparate results also provide value on the Over: NBA favorites of more than 9 points coming off a win are 466-350 to the Over (57.1%), versus opponents entering off a loss. Finally, since 2015, NBA non-divisional conference games with double-digit spreads are 600-495-31 to the Over (55%), including 396-312-11 OVER (56%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Take the Over in the Orlando/Cleveland game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 24.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

It's never wise to read too much into spring training results. However, one doesn't want to discount them entirely either. Liberatore, St. Louis's expected starter, had a sparkling 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in four spring starts, striking out 19 in 15 innings. He walked only two. Liberatore noted: "That's two too many." He delivered five shutout innings in his final spring start. On the other hand, Rasmussen had a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his four spring starts. He got rocked for 11 hits and eight runs (7 earned) in his final spring start. The Cards were 44-37 at home last season while the Rays were 36-45 on the road. In the first ever opening day meeting between these teams, let's go with the home underdog Cardinals.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Play ON road underdogs averaging 114-118 points per game if they scored at least 125 in their last game and are facing an opponent allowing 114-118 ppg.

Applies to Orlando.

42-15 ATS (74%) since the 2022 season.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

3% GOOD TO 130 2% 135 NO PLAY at 7

We make a play here on the OVER 6 1 /2. This will be the 3 RD game in 4 nights for the Penguins and that to us should help this over. Both teams have played a little suspect D of late and the Penguins have now gone over the total in 8 of their last 9 games. We break this game down on pucktime today and you can watch the show on WagerTalk TV. These clubs are great on the PK and thus keeps this a smaller play for us.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

2% ANA -1 (-119)

CREATE YOUR OWN -1 AS FOLLOWS:

Risk 1.53% on the ML @ -180
Risk 0.85% on the PL @ +136

Good to -130

DK numbers used. Can beat that number easily with multiple books.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

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Core input snapshot

Chicago’s 2025 offensive baseline was much stronger. The Cubs averaged 4.83 runs/game at home in 2025 and posted a .751 OPS vs left-handed pitching. Washington averaged 4.24 runs/game overall in 2025, scored 368 runs in 81 road games (about 4.54/game) with a .705 away OPS, and had just a .639 OPS vs left-handed pitching.

The starter gap leans heavily toward Chicago. Cavalli went 3-1 with a 4.25 ERA in 10 starts in 2025, while Boyd went 14-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 2025. Boyd was 12-1 at home with a 2.51 ERA in 2025 home starts, while Cade Cavalli’s road ERA was around 6.2 in his 2025 road sample.

For late-form proxies from 2025, the Cubs’ bullpen had a 2.69 ERA over its last 10 games, while the Nationals’ offense scored 4.4 runs/game over its last 10 and the Cubs scored 3.2 runs/game over their last 10. That gives Washington a mild recent-offense proxy edge, but Chicago still owns the stronger full-season baseline and the better starting-pitcher setup here.

Projected WSN runs = 2.8

Projected CHC runs = 5.8

Score projection

Starting pitcher box score projections

Projected hitter lines

Nationals

Cubs

Wager & Probability Analysis

Full game total

• Over 8.5: 51.7%

• Under 8.5: 48.3%

Fair odds:

• Over 8.5: -107

• Under 8.5: +107

First 5 innings total

If a book posts 4.5, the fair prices are roughly:

Bottom line

Projected score: Cubs 5.8, Nationals 2.8
Best side: Cubs ML, but only small value at -201 versus my fair line of about -220.
Totals: I’m close to neutral, with only a slight full-game over lean if the market sits 8.5 and the juice is cheap.
Most important driver: the combo of Boyd’s 2025 home dominance, Washington’s weak 2025 production vs lefties, and Cavalli’s shakier road sample.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

(557) Denver Nuggets at (558) Phoenix Suns: Total

Total Over 232.5 (-120)

• Denver Nuggets Performance:

  • Strong Over/Under Record Away: The Nuggets have been very effective with a record of 22-3 (88%) over/under as either a favorite or an underdog of +6 while playing away from home. This indicates strong offensive performance and scoring potential in those road games.

  • Recent Game Context: The Nuggets' last game saw an under, despite a high total of 243 points scored.

• Phoenix Suns Performance:

  • Recent Unders: The Suns have gone under in their last 4 straight games, indicating struggles to maintain scoring consistency. However, they recently rebounded offensively by scoring 120 points and shooting 51.7% in their last game.

  • Performance after High Scoring: Excluding games where they were double-digit underdogs, the Suns have a 9-4 (69%) over/under record after scoring 119+ points, highlighting their recent ability to keep scoring after higher offensive outputs. Additionally, they've included 3 straight overs covering by an average of 57.5 points.

• Historical Context of Matchups:

  • In their previous meetings, the last 3 games in this series have consistently gone over by 8.5 points, 10.5 points, and 41.5 points, indicating a trend of high-scoring games when these two teams face off.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3150-2125 (59.7%; +2.7% ROI). Anaheim arrives in Vancouver looking to avenge a 2-0 shutout loss to the Canucks on January 29, which is significant because NHL road favorites of less than -200 with same-season revenge are 1060-636 (62.5%; +9.5% ROI). The Ducks are coming off 6-5 overtime win over Buffalo on Sunday, and .501 or greater road favorites of -150 or greater entering off a win are 523-245 (68.1%; +3.1% ROI) versus .499 or worse conference opponents, including 346-167 (67.4%; +1.1% ROI) since the beginning of the 2016-17 season, winning by an average margin of +0.9 goals per game. Since 2004, Pacific Division home underdogs like the Canucks are 420-616 (40.5%; -7.6% ROI) versus conference opponents, including 187-309 (37.7%; -12.7% ROI) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. Finally, since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2360-1556 (60.3%; +2.0% ROI) with a road game on deck. Take the Anaheim Ducks as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, March 24.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

Hornets backup point guard Coby White is starting to find his groove on the team since being traded from the Bulls in late February. We’re going to take him over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists at home tonight against a Sacramento Kings team that has given up the most points, rebounds and seventh most assists per game to point guards over the last 15 days. White has averaged 29 points + rebounds + assists over his last four games which came against defenses better than Sacramento including Miami and San Antonio who both sit top five in defensive efficiency this season. The Kings rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season and although White had just 12 points + rebounds + assists in the first head to head meeting two weeks ago, he’s been much more efficient since then accumulating the 29 PRA average in the last four over just 22 minutes per game. Of course, with the Kings as bad as they are we have to worry about the blowout factor, but White should continue to mold into the form that saw him averaging 28.8 points + rebounds + assists per game as a member of the Bulls last season. Take White to play efficiently off the bench once again for the Hornets going over 22.5 points + rebounds + assists on Tuesday night.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

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FC Barcelona -6.5 (-110) vs Anadolu Efes — Confidence 5/5
Barcelona has the much cleaner profile: 17-10 overall, 9-4 at home, 5-5 last 10, while Efes is 8-19 overall, 3-9 away, 2-8 last 10. Barcelona’s season margin is +40; Efes is -123. EuroLeague’s latest Round 33 reporting also notes Cory Joseph is out, and the Round 33 pregame quotes say Efes is still missing Shane Larkin. Barcelona already won the first meeting this season, 95-93 at Efes. My number is Barca -9.5, projected score 86-77.

Barcelona -6.5

• Clearer full-season team profile: Barcelona is 17-10 with a +40 point differential, while Efes is 8-19 with a -123 differential. That is a big gap in overall quality and consistency.

• Strong home split vs weak Efes road split: Barcelona is 9-4 at home; Efes is just 3-9 away. That is the cleanest matchup angle on the board for this game.

• Recent form still favors Barca: Barcelona is 5-5 in its last 10, which is not amazing, but Efes is only 2-8 in its last 10. You are backing the less-cold team here.

• Barcelona has already beaten Efes this season: The official game center shows Barcelona beat Efes 95-93 in Istanbul and also has a 82-77 result over Efes on the matchup page, so Barcelona has had success in this matchup already.

• Injury edge leans Barcelona: Efes is officially without Shane Larkin, Brice Dessert, and Georgios Papagiannis, and Vincent Poirier is questionable for this game. Missing that much creation/frontcourt depth matters against a number like 6.5.

• Barcelona is still in the stronger standings tier: The standings page has Barcelona 5th at 17-10, while Efes is outside that tier at 8-19. In late-round EuroLeague spots, that gap usually matters more than a random one-game shooting spike.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

The Kings should be desperate for a win. They've been picking up points and playing hard but those points have been coming one at a time. Calgary, a team all but mathematically out of the playoffs, should provide LA with the opportunity to notch an important "W." The Flames have actually won a few recently, proving that they aren't tanking. However, the reality is that they'd probably be better off losing. LA, which won the last meeting 2-0, is healthier and matches up well against this Calgary lineup. I expect to see a determined Kings team finish on top. *good up to -160

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

The Lobo's have been on an absolute heater in the NIT Tournament. They have won each of their first two games by 20+ points. Staying at home in "The Pit" for their third game in a row in front of the home fanbase that has averaged by far the best attendance turnout of the entire NIT Tournament to this point sets up well for another lopsided victory.

Tough trip out to the "Land of Enchantment" for St. Joseph's who is quite fortunate to get to this point off two close wins. Now up against the Lobo's who have covered 5 straight against the spread makes for a good spot to go against St. Joe's. This one just missed the Tuesday client card. For today's free pick- Bet New Mexico.

Free Pick Recap: 4-1 (+2.9 units) 
Sunday- Tennessee (-1) WINNER
Saturday- Houston (-10.5) WINNER
Saturday- Vanderbilt (-1.5) Loss
Friday- Utah St (-1.5) WINNER 
Thursday- VCU (+2.5) WINNER

4% TUESDAY BEST BET $5 CBB (50-27) $$ ESPN2 below....

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

The White Sox finished 27^th last season in both batting average and runs scored and are trying to avoid a 4^th straight 100 loss season. With a win total sitting at just 67.5, this year will mainly be about evaluating prospects for the future. Shane Smith may have a nice fastball, but his 2025 chase rate is was in the dump and he had a hard hit percentage of 45.4%.

The Brewers won the NL Central for the 3^rd straight season and are looking to run it back, starting with flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski in the opener. Misiorowski had a 32% K rate last season with a whiff% near the top of the league. A wOBA of .322 was good for a top 10 finish offensively for the Brew Crew, who finished 3^rd in all of baseball in runs scored. Take the Brewers RL.

85.7% (6-1) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

71.4% (10-4) CBB RUN!

5% CBB TOP PLAY UP FOR THURSDAY!

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

62 Washington at St Louis

Both of these teams have an obvious uphill climb to get back into the playoff race. The Capitals got off to an impressive start before falling off badly going into the Olympic break. But they have gone 10-7-2 since to keep their heads afloat. Logan Thompson has been the key, ranking among the best goaltenders in the league this season. But this team continues to struggle to light the lamp, scoring 2, 2, 4, 2, 2 and a single goal in the last six games.

St Louis was one of, if not the worst team in the league the first half of the season. But they recently have a 7-1-2 record the last ten. The Blues also are the more rested team, having had the last two days off, while playing just two games in the last eight days.

Wrong team favored in this one.

PLAY ST LOUIS

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

[FREE PICK] on Purdue - ATS | Good until -9.5.

Texas enters the Sweet Sixteen as the only double-digit seed left, thanks largely to its ability to win close games late. However, I think that it's going to be different this time around. The Longhorns have had issues defending the three-point line, which is a dangerous weakness against a Purdue team that thrives from deep. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in three-point shooting, giving them a massive advantage with the ball in their hands in this game. If Purdue finds its rhythm, it should be able to exploit Texas all game long. Add in a solid defensive performance, which the Boilermakers are most definitely capable of, and this could turn into a blowout.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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Projected starting pitcher boxscore

Fried’s 2025 road split was basically neutral for strikeouts: 101 K in 17 road starts = 5.9 K/start, almost identical to his full-season 5.9. His raw 2025 day/night split leaned much better in night games (119 K in 18 starts = 6.6 K/start) than day games (70 K in 14 starts = 5.0 K/start), but because this opener starts at 5:05 p.m. local time, I treat it as a twilight start rather than a full night-game boost. San Francisco also struck out 24.7% of the time vs left-handed pitching in 2025, but MLB’s projected Opening Day lineup notes that the arrival of Luis Arraez adds elite contact to a group that still has swing-and-miss from Devers, Adames, and Chapman, so I give only a modest opponent bump. Fried’s final spring tune-up came on March 19, when he threw 81 pitches over five innings and said he was ready for Opening Day, so I do not dock him for fatigue or injury, though I still apply a tiny “Opening Day leash” trim. Oracle also remains a generally pitcher-friendly environment in recent park-factor coverage, and the forecast is cool and clear, which modestly helps run prevention and leash stability.

Official projection: Max Fried 5.6 strikeouts

Wager & Probability Analysis (Model-Driven)

Fair-odds read

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago