Free Sports Predictions APR 28: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Cleveland’s most reliable offensive weapons struggled against the Raptors’ defensive pressure in Game 4: Donovan Mitchell shot 6-for-24, Evan Mobley went 4-of-11, and James Harden committed seven turnovers. Toronto also struggled to score, missing its first 14 three-point attempts and went 4-for-30 (13.3%) beyond the arc in the first half. ESPN Research reports that Game 4 marked the first time since 2015 that neither team scored 40 points by halftime in a playoff game. Since 2004, NBA playoff teams coming off a game in the Eastern time zone are 620-469-27 to the Under (56.9%), provided they didn’t lose that game by more than seven points, including 224-156-4 UNDER (41.1%) since 2018. Toronto arrives in Cleveland off back-to-back wins as underdogs in Games 3 and 4, which is significant because postseason underdogs entering off consecutive wins are 243-190-8 to the Under (56.1%) since 2006. The Raptors’ most recent win is notable in that NBA postseason underdogs of two points or greater, coming off a straight-up win that went under the total, are 239-188-4 to the Under (56%) since 1995. Similarly, NBA favorites coming off an upset loss as favorites are 144-114-5 to the Under (55.8%) versus the same opponent. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, April 29.
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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Two pitchers who dominate the batters they face today and one team in a huge flat spot.
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Mariners moneyline
Pro | Why it helps SEA ML |
|---|---|
Seattle bullpen edge | SEA had the stronger projected bullpen rank in the earlier chart: 6th vs MIN 25th over the last 10 days. If Gilbert can keep it close through 5-6 innings, Seattle’s late-game setup is the best pro-Mariner angle. |
Twins bullpen may be thinned | Current matchup notes flag Minnesota’s bullpen as impacted by injuries and depth issues, which matters more if Joe Ryan only gets through 5-6 innings. |
Mariners were the market favorite | Current market references had SEA around -129 despite the model leaning MIN. That means books still respected Seattle more than Minnesota, likely because of overall team/bullpen quality. |
Gilbert has strong K/BB indicators | Logan Gilbert’s listed line: 35 K, 7 BB in 33.0 IP. Even with a 4.36 ERA, that strikeout-to-walk profile is much cleaner than the surface ERA. |
Seattle has more power at the top | Cal Raleigh led Seattle with 7 HR, while Byron Buxton led Minnesota with 6 HR entering the matchup. In a low-total game, one swing can flip the ML. |
Bounce-back spot after ugly opener | Minnesota won Monday’s opener 11-4, with Seattle’s Luis Castillo allowing 7 runs in 5 innings. That result may inflate Twins sentiment, but it was more of a Castillo blowup than a full-series proof point. |
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Joe Raineri
Major League Baseball
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Both of these starting pitchers have been excellent this season, but Davis Martin's underlying metrics suggest he's due for a bit of negative regression. Meanwhile, Jose Soriano is breaking records in his first 6 starts this season. I'm not talking, "Oh, he's got a nice ERA", good either. Through six starts: 5-0, 0.24 ERA, 37.2 IP, 43 K, only 1 ER allowed. He also carried a 24.2-inning scoreless streak into his last start. Now his ERA is obviously unsustainable — nobody lives at 0.24 — but the change in his pitching profile is real. He changed pitch mix, added more four-seamers, and improved contact quality: average exit velo down to 88.6 mph, hard-hit rate down to 38.6% from 48.2% last year. He's been LIGHTS OUT. Now the question is, do we think the White Sox lineup is the group of hitters that are going to expose him? I don't think so. He's allowed 1 ER this season. Not the last game, this season. I'm willing to bet he doesn't give up more than 1 in this game. First Five Team Total UNDER 1.5 for the White Sox, as I want nothing to do with the Angels bullpen.
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Ross Benjamin
NHL Hockey
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NHL Playoffs Game 5 money line away underdogs +105 or higher that are coming off 3 straight wins, resulted in those away money line underdogs going 5-0 since 2017. The 5 away teams average money line was +135.8 and they had a +2.0 goals per game differential. By risking $100 on each of those 5 away money line underdogs you would have made a net profit of $679.
NHL Playoffs Game 5 home favorites of between -160 to -190 that are coming off 3 straight losses have gone 0-5 since 2008. The average money line of those home favorites was -167.8 and they had a -1.8 goals per game differential.
Bet the Anaheim Ducks as a money line underdog of +125 or higher.
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NBA Playoffs 158-113 (58%) & +134.76 Units Since 2021!
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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger
Major League Baseball
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Good to -115
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on Under.
This series is tied 2-2, and Game 4 went under the number. We know that when an NBA Playoff series is tied 2-2 the winner of Game 5 wins the series 82% of the time. While it's not quite a Game 7, it's a pivotal game and I don't expect to see many easy buckets. The Knicks ranked 28th in the NBA in possessions per game (100.5) during the regular season. We should see another low scoring battle at MSG.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Gianni the Greek
Soccer
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USA MLS :
234825 Louisville City/Houston Dynamo under 3 -125...(3%) - thru Under 2.75 (-120)
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Backing the Bronx Bombers over the Rangers at the short price. Spectacular starting pitching matchup on tap in Arlington, featuring Yankees young gun Cam Schlittler with a sub 2 ERA and a sparkling 41 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio.
Jacob deGrom has looked sharp to this point in the season himself. The difference is the Yankees bats are in much better form recently compared to the Texas lineup. New York has won 8 of their last 10 games and currently has the best record and run differential in the American League. This one just missed the client card. For Tuesday's free bet- Bet Yankees.
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Kyle Anthony
Mixed Martial Arts
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will add breakdown soon
Play: Vince Morales +114
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Andy Lang
NHL Hockey
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Boldy has been a volume machine in this series, recording 4+ shots on goal in every game. That kind of consistency at this number is exactly what you want.
The underlying metrics are even stronger—he’s averaging around 10 shot attempts per game. That’s elite volume, and it gives him a huge cushion to land at least 4 on net.
This isn’t fluky production either. He’s clearly a focal point of the offense, constantly involved and generating chances shift after shift.
With sustained shot volume and consistent results, this is a great spot to keep riding the over.
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play UNDER in April playoff games with the total between 210 and 220 if a team is playing at most its 5th game in the last 14 days.
Applies to both New York and Atlanta.
71-25 (74%) since the 2021 season, staying UNDER by an average of 7.3 points!
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Don Buster
NHL Hockey
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GOOD TO 140
We make a small play on Dallas here as they played Minnesota to two OT games in St. Paul. We know this looks like a complete zig zag series and that's not always a bad thing. However our handicap is more on the Starts being at home in front of the fans. Home ice is just different for teams in the playoffs. With that last line change it will be crucial to help the Stars take a 3-2 lead back to St. Paul.
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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The Knicks and Hawks head back to Madison Square Garden for Game 5 tonight after New York was able to tie the series up at 2-2 with a 114-98 win in Game 4. OG Anunoby had 32 points + rebounds in that game as we’ll look for him to go over 23.5 points + rebounds tonight. He has averaged 29.5 points + rebounds per game for the series and during the regular season averaged 27 points + rebounds in three head-to-head matchups with Atlanta. Anunoby has averaged 38.2 minutes per game this series which is most among all Knicks players and on the season averages 26.4 points + rebounds per 40 minutes. After Jalen Brunson, Anunoby has attempted the most field goals per game this series and even with all the success Karl-Anthony Towns has been having this series, Anunoby has still been able to make an impact on both sides of the floor. Anunoby has arguably been the most consistent Knicks player so far this series so let’s take him to make an impact again in Game 5 going over 23.5 points + rebounds against the Hawks in New York.
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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The Angels caught a bad beat last night with some poor bullpen play while in full control of the game. Today they bounce back with Jose Soriano, who has the best ERA in baseball at 0.24. Soriano hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past 3 starts and has given up just 1 run in 6 starts this season! LA is also swinging the bats well as of late and they won’t need to provide much run support tonight. Take the Angels.
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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If the American League were to vote on the Cy Young Award as of April 28, the Angels’ Jose Soriano would be the odds-on favorite. He’s done a pretty good Bob Gibson circa 1968 impersonation, winning all five of his starts, posting an 0.24 ERA and 0.82 WHIP.
Unfortunately for the Halos, they’re 7-18 in the other 25 games he hasn’t started, and Kurt Suzuki might be tempted to leave Soriano on the mound a bit longer tonight due to recent bullpen issues. Meanwhile, Davis Martin has been the Pale Hose version of Soriano, spinning a 1.37 ERA across his last four starts. Play Angels-White Sox “Under”
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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Jose Soriano has been simply dominant to start the season. He's made six starts and is 5-0 (team is 6-0) with a 0.24 ERA. That's not a misprint. He's pitched 37 2/3 innings and has allowed one run. He's struck out 43 and opposing batters are hitting .143. Soriano faced the White Sox last spring. He delivered seven shutout innings and the Angels won 1-0. To his credit, Davis Martin has also been pitching really well. Still, nobody is doing what Soriano is doing. Let's go with Soriano and the Angels.
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4% NHL TOTAL OF THE WEEK (ONLY $5!) *8-3 IN PLAYOFFS
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Ben Burns is 8-3 (+12.48) to start the NHL playoffs, 2-1 with his O/U plays. His #1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK goes today and IT'S ONLY $5. Take advantage immediately!
**ONLY $5** TUES. NHL ANNIHILATOR (8-3 IN PLAYOFFS)
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Ben Burns is 8-3 (+12.48) to start the NHL playoffs. His next hockey winner goes here. Jump on board for just $5!
Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Portland arrives in San Antonio for Game 5 off back-to-back losses, and Round 1 road underdogs coming off consecutive defeats are just 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%) since 2012. The total is lower than in the last two games, which matters because NBA playoff favorites are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) in Game 5 with totals of 220 or less, provided the totals have dropped from each of the previous two games. Portland is installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game in this series, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 264-352-13 ATS (42.9%). The team’s respective records are noteworthy because NBA favorites of -9 or greater with seven or more overall wins over their opponents are 148-93-3 ATS (61.4%) since 1998. San Antonio’s defense will be critical in Game 5, as the Spurs are 45-10 SU and 36-17-2 ATS when limiting opponents to fewer than 115.5 points per game. San Antonio is ranked eighth in the NBA in points allowed per game (111.5), while the Trail Blazers rank 16th in scoring offense (115.5 PPG). Finally, the Spurs fall into a profitable 249-191-6 ATS (56.6%) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests on NBA playoff teams that possess certain ATS margins. Lay the points with the San Antonio Spurs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 28.
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Buy 3, Get 3 FREE — 6 Days for Just $69!
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For a limited time, get 6 full days of All-Access for just $69 — the same price as a 3-day pass. That’s double the access at no extra cost.You’ll receive every pick, in every sport, from your chosen handicapper throughout your access period.6 days of expert picks for the price of 3Full access to all sports releasedIncludes any Top Rated 5% Be ...
Triple Play All-Access Baseball Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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For a limited time, get every baseball play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49. That's only $16.33 per day for every premium baseball release your handicapper posts. You'll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you get the best possible number before the lin ...
