Free Sports Predictions AUG 9: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

The winner takes the series today in St. Louis as the Cardinals face a “fade candidate” and arguably the worst team in baseball. Michael Lorenzen was smashed for 7 earned runs in just 3 innings last time out, the 2^nd time he’s given up at least 6 earned over his past 3 starts. This isn’t much of a surprise as Lorenzen’s analytics are terrible! He ranks in the 1^st percentile in pitching run value overall and the rest of his metrics are abysmal as well. The Rockies also have the 3^rd worst bullpen in baseball and have lost 4 of 5 overall. Michael McGreevy has been very solid in the Cards’ rotation, entering with the 27^th best ERA in the league. Take the Cardinals -1.

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Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

One of the keys to the Cubs’ resurgence this season has been Matthew Boyd, who has emerged as one of the staff aces since returning from the IL in late June. In eight starts beginning June 26 vs. the Mets, Boyd has posted a 2.40 ERA...and Chicago has won seven of those eight.

Still, this might turn into a better pitching duel than many people expect on Sunday vs. the Royals, as KC’s Randy Dobnak has quietly emerged as one of the hot pitchers of the summer, posting a 1.16 ERA in six appearances since his activation in early July. Play Cubs-Royals “Under”

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

926 Chicago Cubs at Kansas City

Yes, we are well aware of the wind blowing out Sunday at Royals Stadium. But despite that fact, these two pitchers are having very successful seasons. No way this total should be posted at 10. Neither starter is known for allowing a lot of free passes, so getting runners on base will likely be a chore.

PLAY UNDER

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Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Atlanta starter Grant Holmes projects to give up 2.9 runs with a 4.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.  New York’s lineup has hit a solid .387 (12-31) with a strong 1.071 OPS against Holmes in his career.  The Yankees will start Cam Schlittler.  The righty projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in the New York’s favor, look for the Yankees to get a solid home win in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Play YANKEES (-).

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Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on TCU.

If you can still get a -6.5, grab it now because I don't expect that number to be available as we get close to kickoff. While the hire of Bobby Petrino could be impactful for the Tar Heels offense, it may take some time. The Horned Frogs have a new QB, and given he played at Harvard last year, there will be doubters. I expect to see a successful transition as he will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the BIG12, surrounded by returning talent at WR and RB. Davis Warren has more of an uphill battle in my opinion.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Washington Commanders Over/Under 7.5 Regular Season Wins

4% Washington Commanders UNDER 7.5 Regular Season Wins (+105)

Washington went 5-12 last year, and I’m not buying a three-win jump.

Jayden Daniels played only 7 games in 2025 and dealt with a knee sprain, hamstring injury and dislocated elbow. He also led all NFL quarterbacks with 8.3 rushing attempts per game. After 148 carries as a rookie, his style continues to expose him to significantly more contact than the average QB. Durability has to be priced into this number.

Washington also replaced both coordinators. David Blough takes over the offense and Daronte Jones takes over the defense, and both will be first-time NFL play callers.

They’ve added some names on defense, but per PFF, only 2 projected defensive starters carry grades over 70. This was a bad defense last year, and I’m not convinced the makeover fixes it overnight.

They also have only 8 true home games, with the Colts “home” game being played in London, and they open @ Philadelphia and @ Dallas.

Looking at the first 11 games, I project Washington to be favored in only 1 or 2 of them.

I don’t need Washington to be bad.

7-10 cashes this ticket.

Coming off 5 wins, with Daniels’ injury history and rushing workload, two first-time play callers, a questionable defense and this schedule, 7.5 is too high.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Kansas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

Kansas has finished 5-7 in back-to-back seasons, and they've got a real shot to make it three in a row.

Does a two-time 5-win team suddenly find a sixth? I don't see where it comes from. The Jayhawks are hanging around the bowl bubble once again and falling just short. This year they've got a harder path with a downgrade at the position that matters most, quarterback.

Jalon Daniels is in the NFL after six years in Lawrence, and the job now belongs to Cole Ballard, a redshirt junior who arrived as a walk-on, worked his way up, and started two games back in 2023. His stat line: 108 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a QBR under 40. Even the reporting that has him winning the job frames him as the safe game-manager over higher-ceiling Isaiah Marshall.

This is a team that can’t finish close games. They stalled in the red zone and misfired in the two one-score losses that would've made them bowl eligible last season and now they're handing the keys to a game-manager with a sub-40 career QBR. That's not how a 5-7 team finds a sixth win.

Their schedule does them no favors. Five true road games, and Arizona State in London. We see how losing that “across the pond” game fared last season for my Wildcats. The middle of the year stacks three road games in four weeks, and they close with two of their last three away from Lawrence. LIU and Middle Tennessee,  two wins. After that, the road to a sixth runs through Missouri, the London trip, at Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU, at West Virginia, and home dates with Baylor, UCF, and a high caliber BYU. There are potentially two coin flips in that mix. 4-8 is the ceiling for the Jayhawks in 2026.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

If you want a longer shot further down the board to win the SEC, Oklahoma stands out.

With a healthy Jackson Arvidson, John Mateer and 16 returning starters, they'll be a prime contender in this conference. The schedule at first glance looks tough, with road games at Michigan, Georgia in September. But they get the Red River versus Texas coming off the bye week and middle of the pack SEC from there on out. I’ve always been told it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish in the SEC… Oklahoma very well could be playing in the championship game in Atlanta in December.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Penn State Over 9.5 +140

Bottom line… They have the softest draw in the conference, no Indiana, no Ohio State, no Oregon. This season's opponents went .407 in Big Ten play last year. They also have zero P4 non-conference games. This screams over and that’s the reason this is a free play as opposed to client play.

Yes, the market has already priced in the soft schedule and is asking you to trust Matt Campbell in his first season at State College, with a new DC, and a defensive line that lost roughly 80% of its production. Let's count the likely wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland, that's nine games where they'd be favored, several heavily. Small dog at Michigan, coin flips versus USC at home, a team that has faltered in the Eastern Time Zone and at Washington. Are they going to win the Big Ten? Probaly not, but can they win 10 games and possibly be playing in Indianapolis to end the season.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Last season I gave out Tech 100-1 on “Bet On It” as a crazy long shot to win the National Championship. This season, I’m doing the opposite.

This 10.5 win total was built around Brendan Sorsby, ESPN's No. 1-ranked transfer and a $5 million-plus signing instead the Red Raiders get Will Hammond, a redshirt sophomore with exactly two career starts, and the number is still priced for a proven eleven-win passer who isn't on the team anymore. Hammond tore his ACL last October and isn't expected to be cleared for full contact until around August 21st. He's been throwing in 7-on-7s, but he'll take his first live hits of the year in a game that counts, and McGuire has hedged the timeline all offseason with "week one, if not for sure week two." ACL returns aren't linear, and a dual-threat whose rushing was a real part of his value is now running behind a repaired knee. Any setback in camp, any cautious week, and the offense leans on Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis.

The schedule looks easy... With the toughest team they face being Houston or Arizona. The Sorsby saga made Texas Tech the sport's villain with every Big 12 opponent circling them. Letdown and revenge spots multiply for a team the whole conference wants to end. Eleven wins demands near-perfection from a first-year starter, in a league gunning for them, with almost nothing going wrong across four months. Ask a good-not-great quarterback to be flawless behind a rebuilt knee and the likeliest outcome is nine wins, not eleven.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Over the last ten seasons, the Jets have averaged 4.9 wins per year and they have only gone over this 5.5 win total three times. You can point to injuries and in-season trades as a big reason why last season was a failure, but we now have a ten-year sample size of this being one of the worst organizations in the NFL. Geno Smith was brought back to the franchise after a disastrous run in Las Vegas with the Raiders, but we're struggling to see the upside. The Athletic just released a comprehensive QB ranking that was voted on by coaches and front office personnel. Smith was voted as the 30th-best quarterback heading into the 2026 season. One defensive coordinator was quoted as saying, "He looked terrible on the film we saw." Another defensive coach put more blame on the Raiders' system around him, saying "Once you get hit and keep getting hit and hit and hit, how good are you going to be? They had no identity on offense. Geno got a bad rap. He was getting murdered out there." That's fair, but why is there any reason to believe things are going to be any better with this team? Head coach Aaron Glenn was retained, but nearly every assistant coaching position was flipped after last year’s 3-14 campaign. Frank Reich has been brought in to lead the offense, but Reich hasn't coached in the NFL since 2023 when he went 1-10 with the Carolina Panthers. Bill Musgrave was hired as the quarterbacks coach. Musgrave was the Browns' QB coach last season and Cleveland had arguably the worst offense in the NFL. We're really struggling to see how the Jets are going to double their win total from three to six this season. It's not like this team was knocking on the doorstep and suffered a couple heartbreaking losses along the way. They finished with a -203 point differential, allowed the second-most points in the league and suffered eight double-digit losses. When the NFL schedule was released, DraftKings released opening point spreads on every game for every team for the upcoming season. The Jets are not projected to be favored by more than a field goal in any game this season, and only five games have a point spread between -2.5 and +2.5. So in order to eclipse this win total, the Jets would have to go 5-0 in those toss-up games (vs Cleveland, Las Vegas, Arizona and Miami x2) and still would need to pull another upset along the way. We don't see that happening.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago