Free Sports Predictions SEP 2: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski projects to give up 2.3 runs with a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Chicago’s lineup has hit just .125 (8-64) with a weak .390 OPS against Misiorowski in his career.  The Cubs will start David Peterson.  The lefty projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a 4.82 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Milwaukee’s favor, look for the Brewers to get a solid road win in this game on Wednesday night.

Play BREWERS (-).

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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There are some pretty solid pros for Giants–Pirates UNDER 8.5 today (Sept. 2), even after last night’s ridiculous 13-12 game. In fact, that 25-run explosion may be giving us a slightly better number than the underlying matchup deserves. The current market I found has Under 8.5 around -124, with Landen Roupp vs. Jared Jones listed as the probable starters.

The biggest positive is Roupp. His season ERA is 4.25, but his recent form has been better than that number suggests. In his latest start against Arizona, he allowed 1 run over 5 innings, and earlier this season he held Pittsburgh to 1 run over 4 innings. That gives him a reasonable pathway to keeping Pittsburgh around 2–3 runs through six innings.

Jared Jones is the more volatile side, but his raw stuff still supports an under. He has swing-and-miss ability and recently threw six perfect innings against Atlanta before Pittsburgh removed him. His overall ERA is elevated, but the upside is clearly there when his command is right.

The other major factor is Pittsburgh's offense before last night's eruption. Going into this series, the Pirates had scored only five runs over their previous five games and finished August just 10-15. Last night's nine-run third inning was obviously enormous, but it's dangerous to extrapolate one bizarre game into a genuine offensive breakout.

There is also a strong regression angle from last night. Giants–Pirates somehow went from an expected Webb/Skenes pitching duel to 25 total runs, including a nine-run Pirates inning and five-run Giants eighth. That's about as extreme an outcome as you'll see. Neither offense suddenly became elite overnight.

Why I like 8.5 specifically

You have some cushion:

My rough projection is:

Pirates 4.0
Giants 3.4
Projected total: ~7.4 runs

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On the home underdog Wednesday night in Wrigley Field. The Cubs bats have been smoking hot and we are looking to cash a nice plus price ticket behind David Peterson. The Cubs starter has been great recently, pitching to the tune of a (2.35 ERA) since the 4th of July. He has also been excellent against the Milwaukee lineup, letting up just 3 runs in his last 24 innings against them. This one just missed the Wednesday 2 pick client card. For today's free pick- Bet Chicago.

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Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Take Georgia Tech (#146)

The 'Daily Double' video below offers my take for Colorado - Georgia Tech and Illinois - UAB on Thursday Night.

The Ramblin Wreck were able to win SU and ATS in Boulder last year despite a -3 turnover differential; outgaining Deion’s squad by +160 yards in the process.  I’m not expecting the rematch to be any closer, even with Georgia Tech breaking in a new QB and a new offensive coordinator.  The betting markets often overreact to offseason personnel losses; underestimating how prepared (and talented) their replacements will be.   The Buffs lost every road game by a TD or more last year (1-4 ATS in this role) and they’ve already suffered key injuries at WR and on the OL.  Laying less than a touchdown with the host is a legitimate pointspread bargain!  Take Georgia Tech.

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Tulsa enters the 2026 season as an intriguing home underdog with the continuity and returning production necessary to challenge an Oklahoma State program undergoing a massive rebuild. The Golden Hurricane improved from 128th in SP+ in 2024 to 104th last season and are projected to climb again to 98th in 2026, continuing the upward trajectory under second-year coach Tre Lamb. Tulsa also returns quarterback Baylor Hayes, who threw for 2,158 yards as a freshman, giving the offense valuable continuity at the most important position. The Golden Hurricane rank among the national leaders in returning production, bringing back 62% overall, and Lamb supplemented that experience with an outstanding transfer class that added substantial depth at running back, receiver, and in the secondary. Indeed, Tulsa ranks 23rd in Returning Production and is one of 18 teams with a Stability Score of 15 or higher, as defined by VSIN’s Steve Makinen.

Oklahoma State may ultimately improve under new coach Eric Morris, but this remains a program coming off a disastrous 1-11 season after going winless in Big 12 play for the second consecutive year. The Cowboys have undergone one of the country's most extensive roster overhauls, replacing more than 60% of their scholarship roster and relying heavily on Morris' transfers from North Texas. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker was prolific at North Texas, but moving into a new program with so many new pieces creates legitimate uncertainty in a season opener, particularly on the road. Tulsa has already shown it can handle this matchup, defeating Oklahoma State 19-12 in Stillwater last season for its first win over the Cowboys since 1998. Any revenge angle is also muted by Oklahoma State’s upcoming home opener against Oregon, creating a classic lookahead spot. While I am certainly bullish on Oklahoma State's offensive ceiling, its roster turnover and defensive uncertainty make it difficult to justify laying a significant number on the road against an improving opponent.

From a technical standpoint, Group of Five home teams like Tulsa are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) versus Power 4 schools in Weeks 0 and 1, including 23-8 ATS (74.2%) as underdogs of six points or more. In addition, college football road favorites laying more than a field goal are 41-58-1 ATS (41.4%) in Weeks 0 and 1, including 19-33-1 ATS (36.5%) as road favorites of -12 or greater versus FBS opponents. These inflated favorites have been 7-16-1 ATS (30.4%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 5.6 points per game. Finally, Oklahoma State lost its final eleven games last season (1-11 overall), which is significant because FBS teams that lost their last six games from the previous season are 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%) in season-openers, including 18-28-1 ATS (39.1%) if they ended the prior campaign with ten straight defeats.

Tulsa's combination of returning production, quarterback continuity, an upgraded transfer class, and last year's head-to-head success makes the Golden Hurricane a live home underdog. My math model favors Oklahoma State by fewer than ten points, so grab the inflated number with the Tulsa Hurricane as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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Wyoming enters Saturday’s Border War as an attractive road underdog against a Colorado State program undergoing major changes after a disastrous 2025 season. The Rams finished 2-10 overall last year (1-7 in Mountain West play) and were outscored by an average of 30.8 to 18.5 points per game. First-year head coach Jim Mora takes over a program that has enjoyed just one winning season in eight years and ranks 99th in the country in Returning Production. Even more concerning is the fact that the Rams enter the 2026-27 campaign with a Stability Score (metric developed by VSIN’s Steve Makinen) of just 3, which is telling because college football teams with a score of 0-6 are 173-217-4 ATS (44.4%) versus non-conference opponents with a higher Stability score during the first three weeks of the regular season, provided they are not favored by -30 or greater.

Wyoming’s program was revived by former head coach Craig Bohl, who retired in 2023 after leading the Cowboys to seven straight seasons at .500 or better. Jay Sawvel, the team’s defensive coordinator from 2019-22, was promoted to head coach and now enters with an improved offense led by William & Mary transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes, who followed offensive coordinator Christian Taylor to Laramie and already understands the system. The senior signal-caller accounted for 37 touchdowns throughout his four-year career and earned the starting job at William & Mary last fall, breaking out for 2,330 yards and 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. “Hughes separated himself with the overall command of everything from the minute he got here,” Sawvel said last Monday. “The command of the whole offense and the presence that he has to everything stood out. He’s put himself in a really good spot. I feel good with where he’s at, and I think the whole team does. ... He could be really, really good.”

Hughes will have a stronger supporting cast around him, with running back Samuel “Tote” Harris and receiver Justin Stevenson among the offensive pieces capable of producing more explosiveness in 2026. Jay Sawvel’s defense remains the foundation of the team and possesses enough experience and depth in the front seven to make the Rams earn everything offensively. Colorado State’s offense struggled to move the chains last season, scoring 21 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games and getting shut out by the Cowboys. Wyoming has also controlled the recent Border War, winning four of the last five meetings, including 28-0, 24-15, 14-13, and 31-17. Let’s also note that Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last five home openers.

Technically, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points are 842-688-28 ATS (55%), provided they have fewer than four wins on the season. These teams have been 480-379-12 ATS (55.9%) since 2017. Colorado State lost each of its final six games last season, which is relevant because college football teams that lost their final six games the previous season are just 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. Finally, the Cowboys apply to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS (87.5%) system that dates to 1989 and invests on certain unranked road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season in games with totals of 58 points or less. These live underdogs have covered the spread by an average of 12.8 points per game over the last two decades. With the better recent defense, greater program continuity, and a proven ability to dominate this matchup, take the points with the Wyoming Cowboys as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

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Off five straight wins, the Lions are red hot. They've also beaten the Alouettes five straight times. Montreal is favored for good reason though. The Als have been the best team in the league all season. They're 9-2 overall (+88 point differential) and a perfect 6-0 at home. The Lions are playing their second straight Eastern Conference road game and they're doing so on a short week. Off a rare loss, an angry Montreal team should bounce back with a win and cover.

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This is a free play on LOU.

The Cardinals lost four games last year, two of those losses came in overtime and another came by a single point. The only game they lost by more than three points was on the road at SMU without their starting quarterback. Jeff Brohm will have a new quarterback in 2026, bringing in transfer Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State. Given coach Brohm's history of developing quarterbacks, the expectation is that Kienholz will be successful. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin, but they bring back the best quarterback and running back duo in the country. The Rebels were 11-1 in the regular season last year, and five of their first six games versus FBS teams were decided by one score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(145) Colorado at (146) Georgia Tech: Spread

Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110)

Home-field advantage at Bobby Dodd is meaningful in a season opener.

Georgia Tech returns a more stable overall roster and has a strong rushing identity.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to lean heavily on their running game under new OC George Godsey.

Their defensive front could be the biggest matchup problem for Colorado

If Tech consistently gets 4–5 yards on first down, it can control possession and keep Colorado off the field. That makes Georgia Tech -6.5 considerably more attractive

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 31 Colorado 21

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Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

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This is a top 3 future bet for me. I think we see angry Bills team enter this season and obviously they have Super Bowl aspirations. This team is loaded with talent, is playing in a new Stadium, with a new coach and only has 1 team to beat in the AFC East. That is right, this division is a 2 horse race and I think we see the Pats regress. The Pats benefited from an easy schedule last year, surprised everyone and are not going to the same team as last year. The Bills have the best QB in the division, the best RB in the division and have upgraded their WR core and Oline. Their biggest issue was on defense (generating pressure) and now they have added Bradley Chubb to the mix. The bottom line here is I want an angry Josh Allen, coming off his 1st tough season in a while, in a division with only 1 other team to seriously worry about.

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For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.

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Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

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Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago