Free Sports Predictions NOV 4: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

(311) Jacksonville Jaguars at (312) Baltimore Ravens: Parker Washington Receptions

Parker Washington Receptions Over 4.5 (-102)

Target share: Washington has a 24.5% target share this season, leading Jacksonville's receivers. 

Recent production: He's gone over 4.5 catches in 6 of his last 10 games. 

Play: OVER 4.5 Receptions 

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Taking Texas over Missouri laying the short number. The Longhorns have bounced back nicely the last couple weeks. This one not going to make the client card- Talked this bet on the clip below.

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My team rankings comparison out of 32

I like Edmonton's chances of scoring four goals.

Arguments supporting the over

• Edmonton's offense ranks second in goals per game, scoring 4.13 this season.

• Anaheim's defense has struggled recently, allowing 4.8 goals per game across its last five entering the Vancouver matchup.

• Anaheim has surrendered at least four goals in several recent games, including seven against Buffalo and six against Vancouver.

• Edmonton's power play converts 33.9%, while Anaheim's penalty kill is just 74.6%.

• Anaheim's goaltending remains questionable. Laurent Brossoit has only recently returned to NHL action, while the team's other goalies have struggled.
  
  

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PLAY: Minnesota +5.5

Is there a better coach in the country as an underdog than PJ Fleck? Minnesota beat Washington 27-24 as a 12-point dog for us, then took down Michigan 20-14 and Iowa 13-10 at home, where we were on them again. Last week the Gophers had No. 4 Indiana beat with 19 seconds left after Luke Drzewiecki hit a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead. Indiana tied it with its own 60-yarder at the gun and won in overtime as a 20.5-point favorite.

Yes, UCLA is 8-0 AND 8-0 ATS. Not wanting to step in front of that is understandable. This defense is legit: 7 points a game allowed over the last five. But this is a different offense without Nico Iamaleava, who is done for the year after knee surgery. Ty Dieffenbach, the Cal Poly transfer, has thrown three TD passes in four games, and UCLA has scored 17, 28 and 27 the last three weeks. This is the Bruins' first road game since October 10.

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(321) Nebraska at (322) Illinois: Spread

Nebraska -4.5 (-110)

Betting Analysis: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Nebraska Cornhuskers Overview:

• Current Form: Nebraska enters this game on a three-game losing streak despite leading at halftime in each of those matches.

  • Halftime Leads: 10-3 vs. Washington, 7-0 vs. Michigan State, and 7-3 vs. Rutgers.

• Performance Against the Spread (ATS):

  • They were +6.5 and +9.5 point underdogs in two of those losses.

  • Despite the recent losses, Nebraska has shown competitiveness, having outgained opponents in every game this season.

• Yardage Statistics:

  • Against Oregon: Outgained despite being a +6.5 underdog.

  • Against Michigan State: Finished with a 369-257 yards advantage in a 31-13 win.

• Turnover Margin: In their 17-10 home loss against Washington, Nebraska was -3 in turnovers despite holding a 387-267 yards edge.

  • ATS Trends: Under head coach Matt Rhule, Nebraska is 17-6 (74%) ATS following games where they were -2 or more in turnovers, and 15-4 (79%) ATS, excluding games as a favorite of -7 or higher with a total over 35.

• Current Pressure for Bowl Eligibility: Nebraska is feeling the pressure as a home underdog needing a sixth win for bowl eligibility. Historically, teams in this position with five wins are 41% ATS (69-95-3).

Illinois Fighting Illini Overview:

• Current Form: Illinois comes in after three consecutive wins but shows a mixed performance against the spread.

  • ATS Record This Season: 3-4-1.

  • Illinois had covers as significant underdogs (+25.5 at Ohio State and +10.5 at home against Oregon).

• Recent Performances: While Illinois has positive momentum, their overall performance has been inconsistent, particularly against stronger competition.

Statistical Insights:

• Turnover Average: For teams averaging fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game in their eighth game of the season or later, the ATS record for away favorites of -3.5 to -10 is impressive at 26-7 (79%).

• Cornhuskers’ Edge: Nebraska has not been outgained during any game this season, showcasing their ability to move the ball effectively.

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adding breakdown Thursday...

Free Play: Johnny Walker +200

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With this match being played at Midtjylland's MCH Arena, we're able to get the stronger team at a bargain price. Midtjylland have strung together three consecutive wins, but Ajax are going for a fifth victory in a row across all competitions. The hosts are also dealing with absences in defense and up front. A depleted Danish back line is just the sort of weakness Ajax’s fast, attack-minded style is built to punish. When these teams last faced each other, in the 2020-21 Champions League group stage, Ajax took both games, winning 2-1 in Denmark and then 3-1 in Amsterdam. With their rich European history, a squad fed by one of Europe’s top youth academies, and a track record of getting the better of Danish sides, Ajax look well placed to leave with all three points. Though I do anticipate an Ajax victory, a draw is also a possibility. Therefore, I recommend choosing the spread option which means a draw equals a push.

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Take San Francisco (#468)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Plays for the 49ers - Raiders and the Packers - Patriots games on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Vegas - San Francisco game.

The 49ers are coming off a bad, four turnovers defeat in Atlanta before their bye week — there’s some urgency for Kyle Shanahan’s squad off that debacle.  San Fran also enjoys a significant rest edge compared to Las Vegas.  Teams with extra rest have been $$ in the NFL this year, an emerging trend worth riding here.  Las Vegas isn’t getting many stops these days — a dismal defensive team in recent weeks — and they’re coming off a very satisfying win to snap a four game skid.  Expect a new skid to start here in a game the Niners are primed to win by margin!  Take the 49ers.

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Off a 4-3 loss to the Devils, the Oilers are 9-7 to the over this season. They average 4.12 goals per game, tied with Colorado for the most in the NHL. They have the third best power-play percentage. The Ducks are ahead of them in that category, as they have the best power-play percentage in the league. Their last five games have had scores of 5-4, 6-5, 7-6, 6-3 and 5-4. Eight of the past 10 meetings, including last month's game at Anaheim, have produced a minimum of seven goals. All signs point to another high-scoring affair.

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Take Jacksonville (#311)

The Ravens expected to be Super Bowl contenders this year.  Instead, Baltimore is a bottom feeder playing with a third string QB with Lamar Jackson and Snoop Huntley both on IR and Joe Fagnano banged up too — we could potentially see fourth stringer Kedon Slovis if Fagnano doesn’t hold up.  It’s not like the Ravens defense can carry the team through this dismal stretch, and it’s not like a freefalling team with preseason championship aspirations is primed for a strong showing here.  If I’m playin’ I’m layin’.  Take the Jaguars.

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(411) Kentucky at (412) Tennessee: 1Q Total

1Q Total Under 9.5 (109)

My thoughts on Kentucky/Tennesse under 1Q & 1H from the Best Damn B

tting Show on Wednesday

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PLAY: New England -3

Drake Maye is red-hot right now. Over his past five starts, he's tossed 14 TDs against just two picks with a 69% completion rate, including a surgical 16-of-20 performance for 199 yards and two scores in Miami last week.

New England sits at 5-3 with a big road win in Buffalo already banked, and they are a perfect 3-0 at home while allowing just 13 PPG in Foxborough. Plus, their rushing attack has eclipsed 130 yards in four of the last five.

Green Bay simply cannot run the ball, failing to crack 86 rushing yards in a single game all year. They are putting way too much weight on Jordan Love's shoulders. On the road, this offense hasn't put up more than 22 points. Josh Jacobs carried 21 times for just 39 yards against Carolina last week.

To make matters worse, Love's top weapon Christian Watson (708 yards, 6 TDs) suffered a broken rib against Carolina on Thursday. Even though he toughed it out to finish the game, his health for Sunday is a major question mark.

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Rutgers enters Saturday’s Big Ten matchup as a substantial road underdog, but the number appears aggressive for a Wisconsin team whose defense has been substantially better than its offense. The Badgers are 5-3 but enter off a 30-0 loss at Iowa, while Rutgers was considerably more competitive in a 28-21 loss to Michigan. Wisconsin deserves to be favored, especially at home, but covering 15.5 requires the Badgers to win by at least 16 points with an offense that has struggled to sustain and finish possessions consistently. The Badgers rank 37th overall with a 9.0 rating and 15th defensively at 18.0, but their offensive rating is -0.7, ranking 74th. Wisconsin’s efficiency metrics are even less encouraging, with the Badgers generating only a 38.7% offensive success rate, ranking 115th nationally, while averaging just 3.20 points per scoring opportunity and a 37.5% rushing success rate. Wisconsin’s 30-0 loss to Iowa exposed those limitations, as starting quarterback Colton Joseph was eventually replaced by freshman Ryan Hopkins, who completed 8 of 13 passes for 93 yards with an interception. Joseph has otherwise produced 1,346 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 371 rushing yards and four scores, but his struggles against Iowa highlighted the volatility of an offense that has not consistently created separation.

The most appealing element of the Rutgers offense is its ability to create explosive plays. The Scarlet Knights rank ninth nationally in overall explosiveness and fourth in passing explosiveness while averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 17 passing touchdowns. That big-play ability is particularly valuable for a substantial underdog because Rutgers does not need to consistently manufacture long scoring drives against Wisconsin’s defense. One or two explosive completions can flip field position, generate quick points, and dramatically change the margin required from a Wisconsin offense that has struggled to sustain efficiency. Rutgers remained within one possession of Michigan despite completing only three passes, losing 28-21. Adding a more functional passing component would increase the Scarlet Knights’ ability to capitalize on their season-long explosiveness and create the handful of scoring possessions they may need to stay inside this number.

The projected pace also favors the underdog. Rutgers averages approximately 28.4 seconds per play compared with 28.9 for Wisconsin, so neither team is likely to maximize possession volume. That style benefits Wisconsin from a straight-up perspective because its defense can control the game and reduce variance, but it works against the Badgers from a point-spread standpoint. The Scarlet Knights’ 2-6 record puts them in an uncomfortable spot, and their season includes several poor performances. However, Rutgers has also shown it can stay competitive against quality opponents, losing 42-35 to USC, winning 37-30 at Maryland, and staying within seven points of Michigan. Wisconsin presents a different challenge because the Badgers have been built primarily around defense and game control rather than an explosive offense that can quickly turn a one-possession game into a blowout. Ultimately, this investment is predicated on the price, Wisconsin’s offensive limitations, and the expected low-possession environment.

My technical database provides additional support for Rutgers:

• Play On: Road teams facing opponents that were shut out in their previous game are 274-219 ATS (55.6%) since 1993, generating +33.1 units and a +6.1% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams with seven or fewer days of rest facing opponents coming off a shutout loss are 176-119 ATS (59.7%) since 1999, generating +45.1 units and a +13.9% ROI;

• Play Against: Home favorites coming off games in which they scored fewer than ten points are 409-317 ATS (56.3%) for bettors fading those favorites since 2004, generating +60.3 units and a +7.5% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of at least three points in games with totals below 46 are 493-361 ATS (57.7%) since 2000, generating +95.9 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play On: Conference underdogs of 6 to 24 points in games with totals between 37 and 46 during the first 12 weeks of the season, vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, are 328-210 ATS (61.0%) since 1989, generating +97.0 units and a +16.4% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of 6 to 20.5 points in games with totals between 40.5 and 47.5 during weeks 4-12 vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs are 332-244 ATS (57.6%) since 1989, generating +63.6 units and a +10.0% ROI.

Ultimately, the value lies in the relationship between Wisconsin’s strengths and the spread size. The Badgers are clearly the better defensive team and deserve to be favored, but their underlying offensive efficiency makes laying more than two touchdowns difficult to justify. Rutgers possesses enough explosiveness to manufacture points without consistently sustaining drives, while the deliberate pace and low total should reduce Wisconsin’s opportunities to build a margin. Take Rutgers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 7.

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App State has won each of the last 12 meetings in this Sun Belt series. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, including a 41-20 road win at Georgia State last week. We've successfully played against the Panthers each of the last three weeks, and we're not getting off that train this week. It's been a rinse-and-repeat formula for Georgia State. We don't want to take anything away from what the Panthers have accomplished thus far, because clearing your projected season win total by the first week of October is still something to celebrate, no matter who you are. But with all due respect to Georgia State, wins over North Carolina A&T, Kennesaw State, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion aren't moving the needle for us. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-26 this season. Over the last three weeks against James Madison, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have fallen short of point spread expectations by an average of 14.2 points per game. Throw in a 14-point loss to UCF earlier this season, and the Panthers haven't come close to beating a half-decent team this year. The final score of last week's 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina looks respectable, but that was a 31-6 game in the third quarter before the Chanticleers put things on cruise control for the final minutes. Georgia State's defense forced three turnovers but the Panthers' offense couldn't do anything with the extra possessions. Play App State

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Based on some early-week content that we have consumed this week, there is likely going to be some back-and-forth action on this game. Those looking to back UConn will point to North Carolina's schedule and the presumed let-down spot after the Tar Heels lost back-to-back games against Syracuse and Miami (Fla) by a total of four points. Add those to weather-related losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, and North Carolina has been snakebitten for large stretches of the season. We're not ready to buy into that narrative just yet. There's about ten programs in the country where you can ignore "letdown spot" narratives (i.e. the military academies), and a Bill Belichick-coached team is probably one of them. You think the guy that has over 300 wins in the NFL is going to let his team have a let-down spot? Especially in the northeast where he's still got quite a following? Don't forget, the Tar Heels didn't make a bowl game last season, so simply reaching six wins and going to a bowl game is still a goal for this team. Realistically, how much can you downgrade North Carolina after these recent losses? They certainly stung, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of the last five games. So you can't downgrade UNC from a power ratings perspective, because they've actually overperformed expectations. The team that fell short of expectations last week is UConn, who couldn't beat Air Force with an ex-linebacker playing quarterback that didn't complete a pass. The Huskies just played at altitude in the Mountain Time Zone and had to defend 74 Air Force rushing plays. We'll make the argument that UConn is the team on letdown alert this week, not North Carolina.
Play North Carolina

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This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests. Play Cowboys (Team Total) Over

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From a sheer numbers perspective, TCU (plus the points) looks like a good value this week. I don’t think this spread should be above a touchdown, quite frankly. The Horned Frogs were part of a winning ML parlay for me last Saturday as they scored a late TD to defeat Kansas 22-14. Now, we probably were a little lucky considering Kansas was +165 in total yards.

But, as I put in the writeup (which you can, of course, read down below), TCU was due for some good luck. All four of the Horned Frogs’ losses this season have been by eight points or fewer. So, again, grabbing +9.5 with them this week makes a lot of sense. TCU has a Top 10 scoring defense in the country. Just 14.1 PPG allowed. They’re also Top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, it's a bit of a letdown spot here for Arizona, after a close loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. I would not want to lay this number with them on Friday. Not with a bigger home game (vs. Utah) on deck.

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This is a free play on MIN (Outright).

UCLA is still undefeated, and 8-0 ATS. They are down to a backup QB, and this game at Minnesota will be his first start on the road. Traveling east for BIG10 road games has been a death sentence for former PAC12 teams. Minnesota already has wins over Iowa and Michigan at home. Last week they went to overtime in a road game at Indiana, but came up short. The Gophers are only allowing opponents to average 15 points per game at home. I'll take the home dog to win outright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Two of the nation’s top teams square off in Baton Rouge Saturday as the great rivalry between Alabama and LSU gives us another chapter. With both teams having 2 losses, the implications are enormous, and LSU has not looked impressive when asked to step up in class. Already with losses over Ole Miss and Kentucky, the Tigers have yet to beat an elite opponent. We know that quarterback Sam Leavitt is turnover prone, and that’s bad news against a defense like Alabama has. Keelon Russell has been great for the Tide and we’ll put over a field goal in our pocket as they make a statement in Death Valley. Take Alabama.

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