Free Sports Predictions SEP 18: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON home teams after allowing and scoring fewer than 17 points last game, if they're facing an opponent that scored at least 37 points in each of its last two games.

Applies to Oklahoma.

15-2 ATS (88.2%) since 2021, covering the spread by an average of 9.9 points!

Note that the favorites in this angle are a perfect 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 10 points!

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Friday Night Lights in the Lone Star State featuring Texas Tech hosting Houston. Nationally televised primetime on Fox. Right off the rip, if you don't like betting the contrarian angle stop reading now. This is a setup where the masses are going to be on the Cougars, however the Red Raiders are the play.

Texas Tech did not look good last week in a strange trip to Corvallis, Oregon. Friday night back in Lubbock, I expect a "Bounce back" effort. The oddsmakers and betting public have pushed this number all the way down to (-7.5). A huge move from the Game of the Year lines a couple weeks ago having Texas Tech as nearly a two touchdown favorite. Also, important to note that the line steamed down to (-7.5) and stayed off (-7). If you see a (-7) I would pounce quickly, because the market is telling us there will likely be buy back.

Joey McGuire's squad is not only the highest spender in the BIG 12 Conference NIL by a wide margin. They have won and covered 7 straight against Houston. Including by 3+ touchdowns in each of the last two meetings. Houston QB Conner Weigman is a former 5 star recruit, one of the supposedly best QB's in his class. This is now his 5th year in college and at no point has he come remotely close to living up to his hype. We have seen him countless times at Texas A&M and now in Houston, I even saw him live late last year in Orlando almost cough a game up to a banged up UCF squad. Do not be surprised if he struggles mightily in Lubbock. This one just missed the client card. For Friday's free pick- Bet Texas Tech.

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Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

(271) Washington Commanders at (272) Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb Receptions

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Over 5.5 (-132)

Consensus Week 2 projections have him around 6.1 catches and 86.6 yards, while another projection has 5.8 catches and 82.1 yards.

Play: OVER 5.5 Receptions

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Good to OV21.5 -115

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

CAROLINA -2.5 VS. ATLANTA

I’m backing the Carolina Panthers -2.5 against the Atlanta Falcons, and there are several reasons I like this matchup.

First, Carolina’s offense showed tremendous explosiveness in Week 1. Despite the 59-37 loss to Chicago, the Panthers moved the football extremely well, averaging 7.7 yards per play, fourth-best in the NFL after Week 1. They also had 29% of their offensive plays go for at least 10 yards, which ranked second in the league.

The biggest matchup advantage could be Bryce Young against Atlanta’s secondary. Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns in Carolina’s overtime win over Atlanta last season, and the Panthers swept both meetings with the Falcons last year.

On the other side, Atlanta enters this game with a major question mark at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa has been dealing with an oblique injury, while Cooper Rush started the opener and threw two interceptions in Atlanta’s 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Michael Penix Jr. is also working his way back from last season’s ACL injury.

That uncertainty is important when you're laying only 2.5 points. Atlanta averaged just 13 points in Week 1 and managed only 17.8 yards per possession, the lowest figure in the league.

I also like Carolina's ability to create explosive plays through the passing game. If Young gets the same kind of opportunities he had against Atlanta last season, Carolina has enough offensive firepower to put pressure on the Falcons throughout the afternoon.

This is also a much different situation from laying a big number. Carolina only needs to win by a field goal, and we're getting the key number of 2.5 rather than 3.

Atlanta is at home, so I expect the Falcons to compete, but the quarterback uncertainty and Carolina's offensive upside make the Panthers the side I'm comfortable laying the points with.

My play: CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Tampa Bay starter Ian Seymour projects to give up 2.1 runs with a 3.13 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  Boston’s lineup has hit just .074 (2-27) with a weak .478 OPS against Seymour in his career.  The Red Sox will start Ranger Suarez.  The lefty projects to give up 2.5 earned runs with a 4.06 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Tampa Bay’s favor, look for the Rays to get a solid home win in this game on Friday night.

Play RAYS (-).

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(917) Toronto Blue Jays at (918) Texas Rangers: F5 Moneyline

F5 Toronto Blue Jays -143 Dylan Cease (RHP) Must Start

Best overall angle: Toronto F5 ML. The combination of Cease’s 2.38 ERA and Toronto’s better overall pitching profile makes the first-five market particularly interesting. 

This is 100% a bet on Dylan Cease. Both teams are still fighting for the playoffs.

Toronto needs to win all remaining Cease starts to have a chance.

Play: Blue Jays F5 -143

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

The Tiger-Cats are well-rested and playing at home. They play with revenge from a July loss at Montreal. The Alouettes were red hot at the time but have cooled off a little since then. They've dropped two of their last three. Montreal's last two visits to Hamilton were both decided by a field goal. In what should be another close one, let's grab the points with the rested, revenge-minded home underdog.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

New York owns a 218 wRC+ (118% above the league average) against lefties on the road over the last two weeks.

Arizona owns a 126 wRC+ (26% above the league average) against righties at home over the last two weeks.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

The OVER is 8-0 since last season when Rodriguez starts at home in the second half of the season against an opponent stranding 6.9 or fewer men on base per game. These games went OVER by an average of 2.3 runs!

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

(913) Athletics at (914) Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana Hits + Runs + RBIs

1.5% Travis Bazzana Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5 (-117) Away Listed Pitcher Must Start

BAZZANA HITS. RUNS AND RBI'S

Barnett’s Struggles

Barnett has had difficulty finding consistent success this season, posting a 7.08 ERA and 1.623 WHIP across 18 appearances. His performance has declined further when used as a starter, where he has recorded a 10.69 ERA and 2.00 WHIP in 4 starts.

His road numbers are also concerning. Barnett owns an 8.05 ERA and 1.947 WHIP away from home, indicating that opposing hitters have consistently reached base and created scoring opportunities against him in road appearances.

Bazzana’s Recent Form

Bazzana has been one of the most productive hitters in September, batting .349 with a .767 SLG and 1.218 OPS.

Although he went hitless Wednesday, that result appears to be an isolated setback rather than a sustained decline. Bazzana had recorded a hit in 9 of his previous 10 games. In the only game during that span in which he failed to collect a hit, he had just 2 official at-bats, while also reaching base via a walk and hit-by-pitch.

Over his last 10 games, Bazzana has produced:

• 15 hits

• 10 runs

• 14 RBIs

• A hit in 90.0% of those games and an average of 3.9 hits, runs and rbi's per game.

Matchup Context

Bazzana’s recent combination of average, power and run production matches up well against Barnett’s weaknesses. Barnett has allowed elevated contact and baserunner numbers throughout the season, especially in starts and road appearances, while Bazzana has consistently generated extra-base impact and run-producing opportunities.

After Wednesday’s hitless game, Bazzana has a strong bounce-back profile against a pitcher with a 10.69 starting ERA and 1.947 road WHIP.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

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Toronto has the stronger pitching edge behind Dylan Cease, who enters with an 11-5 record, a 2.38 ERA, and a 1.06 WHIP across 166.1 innings. Cease has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts and has earned the win in seven of his last eight appearances with Toronto as a road favorite against American League opponents. Let’s also note that Cease has recorded eight-plus strikeouts in eight of his last nine starts as a favorite against American League West teams. Toronto's offense has begun producing as well, scoring at least five runs in four of its last five games and entering this series with a .249 batting average. Kazuma Okamoto supplies legitimate middle-of-the-order power with 33 home runs and 88 RBIs, and he has homered in each of Toronto's last five evening games against American League West opponents with a losing record.

Technician’s Corner

The technical portfolio provides several strong angles supporting Toronto, with the most compelling systems centered on road favorites, non-divisional matchups, and Dylan Cease’s elite 2026 form.

• Elite starter in September - Road favorites with a starting pitcher carrying an ERA below 2.75 in September games with totals below nine are 223-141 (61.3%). Cease enters with a dominant 2.38 ERA and 1.06 WHIP;

• Fade the home underdog - Home underdogs coming off a loss in games beginning after 4 p.m. ET have lost 58.4% of the time (3,401-2,424) since 2007. Texas enters off Thursday's 4-3 loss to Boston;

• AL road-favorite advantage - American League road favorites priced between -120 and -220 against non-divisional opponents have gone 1,621-1,097 (59.6%);

• Cease road profile: Dylan Cease is 35-24 (59.3%) on the road following a start in which he worked more than four innings.

The strongest technical angle is the 223-141 September road-favorite system because it directly incorporates Toronto's biggest matchup advantage—Cease and his 2.38 ERA. Combined with Texas scoring only three runs on four hits Thursday and the uncertainty surrounding its starting pitcher, the technical profile further supports Toronto over Texas.

Texas is coming off a disappointing 4-3 loss to Boston in which it led 3-0 in the second inning before failing to score over the final seven frames and finishing with only four hits. The Rangers have a 4.30 team ERA and .248 opponent batting average, both inferior to Toronto's 3.92 ERA and .236 opponent average. Texas also enters with uncertainty surrounding its starting pitcher, magnifying Toronto's substantial advantage with Cease on the mound. While the Rangers have been solid at Globe Life Field at 42-33, they have lost five of their last six evening affairs against Toronto following a home loss. Finally, the road team has also won each of the last five meetings between these clubs. Take the Toronto Blue Jays as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, September 18.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

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The Yankees have the stronger overall profile in this matchup, entering at 88-64 with the best run prevention in baseball. New York ranks first in MLB with a 3.19 team ERA and 561 runs allowed, compared with an Arizona staff carrying a 4.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Gerrit Cole provides another reason to back New York, as he owns a 1.96 ERA with 43 strikeouts in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Cole has also earned the win in 10 of his last 12 appearances as a road favorite against National League West opponents while recording at least six strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 starts as a favorite against the division. Arizona counters with Eduardo Rodriguez, but New York's lineup owns the superior power profile with a .409 slugging percentage compared with Arizona's .397. Ben Rice has hit 38 home runs and driven in 92 runs, while Aaron Judge has homered in four of his last five appearances as a road favorite against National League West opponents.

The situational profile also favors New York, as the Yankees have responded to adversity by winning each of their last nine games following a loss. Arizona, meanwhile, has lost four consecutive night games against American League East opponents and has failed to cover the run line in five straight games.

Technician’s Corner

The technical portfolio provides strong support for New York, particularly with the Yankees fitting several profitable rested, non-divisional road-favorite systems.

• Top-rated system - Non-division road favorites with one day of rest facing a starting pitcher who allowed at least three runs in his previous outing are 421-254 (62.4%), generating +$7,636 and an 8.1% ROI since 2007;

• Rested road favorites - Non-division road favorites priced at -145 or less with a total of at least eight are 373-230 (61.9%), producing +$8,714 and an 11.6% ROI since 2007;

• Fade Arizona situation - Non-division home underdogs facing a rested opponent coming off a loss after the All-Star break have lost 65.1% of the time (151-81) since 2005, producing an 11.9% ROI when playing against them;

• Yankees-specific angle - New York is 190-123 (60.7%) in Game 1 of a series against non-division opponents since 2017.

The Yankees bring a strong team-specific Game 1 history into a matchup where Gerrit Cole owns a 1.96 career ERA against Arizona. Combined with New York's MLB-best 3.19 team ERA and its nine-game winning streak following a loss, the technical portfolio strengthens the case for Yankees over Diamondbacks. With New York's superior pitching staff, a favorable historical matchup for Cole, and a strong bounce-back profile, take the Yankees as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, September 18.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

(921) Kansas City Royals at (922) Pittsburgh Pirates: Total

First Inning Under 0.5 (-125) Randy Dobnak (RHP), Paul Skenes (RHP) Must Start

Dobnak is 6-0 & 10-1 NRFI

Skenes is 22-8 NRFI with a 3.94 ERA

KC has scored a first inning run once in their L5 games and only once in their L6 games with rest.

Pittsburgh is 3-0 NRFI & 6-0 NRFI at home.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

The Nationals have won 4 of 5 as they head to St. Louis and this may be our last chance to cash with Cade Cavalli, who has been so good to us this season. Cavalli enters with the 14^th best ERA at 3.12 and has allowed a total of just 4 runs over his past 3 starts. What makes Cavalli so special is his consistency, as he’s held the opponent to 3 earned or fewer in 29 of his 31 starts this season. Washington as a team has scored the 3^rd most runs in baseball and is top 5 in home runs as well. Take the Nationals.

80% (4-1) MLB RUN!

77% (10-3) ALL SPORTS RUN!

80% (4-1) NFL WEEK 1!

100% (3-0) CFB RUN!

96-59 MLB RUN!

+87 UNITS SINCE MAY 5^TH IN MLB!

17-8 MLB 5% TOP PLAYS THIS SEASON!

23-12 TOP PLAY RUN! (5%)

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Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on NYJ.

Who in their right mind is laying points with Green Bay on the road. They lost 39-22 at Minnesota last week. Backup QB Carson Wentz threw for 133 yards and three TDs, and the Vikings ran for over 100 yards. The Packers couldn't run the football, Marshawn Loyd averaged 2.8 yards per carry and Green Bay had just 66 rushing yards. The Jets beat the Titans, and we can't overreact to that. We don't need the Jets to win here, but I will take the points. The Jets have been competitive at home, the Packers have failed to cover in six of their last nine on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

On the road as it is tonight, Milwaukee must be viewed a bit differently, we suggest, standing only 10-11 its last 21 away (while 16-5 its last 21 at home). Friday starter Dustin May also isn’t likely to get 20 runs of support as in his last start a week ago vs. the Reds; note he posted a 6.41 ERA in August for the Brew Crew after arriving In a deadline deal from the Cardinals.

Meanwhile, the Birds are still within shouting distance in the AL wild card race, but have no time to waste, and they played with impressive urgency in the sweep of the Mets at Citi Field (avenging the ‘69 World Series, perhaps?) before this return home. Baltimore has also won the last three starts made by Cade Povich, likely on the hill tonight. Play Orioles on Money Line

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

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• Bryan Woo gives Seattle a meaningful starting-pitching edge. He enters at 12-9 with a 3.88 ERA and 163 K. MLB currently has Colorado’s Friday starter listed as TBD, so I would not rely on sites showing Gabriel Hughes—MLB has Hughes lined up for Saturday instead.

• Colorado is in awful form: 56-97 and 10 losses in its last 11 games. They just lost consecutive home games to San Diego 9-3 and 9-2.

• The Rockies' pitching is getting demolished. Over their last 10 games they've surrendered 75 runs, with a 7.93 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and 2.04 HR/9. That's an extremely favorable setup for Seattle's lineup at Coors.

• It isn't just the starters. Colorado's September rotation ERA is 6.47, while its bullpen has posted a 7.66 ERA this month. That makes Seattle attractive not only early but also if the game is close after five innings.

• Seattle's offense has shown considerably more upside lately. The Mariners have scored 57 runs in their last 10 with a .780 OPS, including the 19-1 explosion against the A's. They also scored seven in Wednesday's win over the Angels.

• The middle of Seattle's lineup looked healthy in that Angels win: Cal Raleigh drove in three, Josh Naylor drove in two, Julio Rodríguez had two hits, and Randy Arozarena scored three times. That's exactly the kind of lineup depth you want attacking Colorado's staff at Coors.

My rough matchup projection: Seattle 7, Colorado 4.

The strongest argument for Mariners ML is really Woo + Seattle bats versus a Colorado staff that is collapsing, rather than simply "Seattle is the better team."

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

The Cougars currently rank #1 nationally in rushing defense. Of course they haven't played anyone yet, so we can't take that stat too seriously. This team though is trending in the right direction, and Texas Tech appears to be vulnerable to be upset. Will Hammond is struggling at QB, and that might open the door for Castellanos. If you have two QBs, you don't have any. Connor Weigman never lived up to the hype at Texas A&M, but he's looked the part since arriving at Houston. Willy Fritz is the kind of coach that has the whole bag of tricks that you're gonna need to win at Lubbock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

There is real value on Marlon Vera at a +190 price tag. He is still a high-level Muay Thai fighter with sharp kicks and a reputation for toughness that has never really left him. At range he can keep opponents honest with long strikes and genuine power. Once the fight gets in tight exchanges he is just as dangerous in the clinch with slicing elbows and heavy knees into the body. That mix of distance striking and dirty boxing is still the core of his game. While Charles Jourdain is a high-risk, high-reward fighter who lives on creative combinations. The nickname “Air Jourdain” is earned. He will throw jumping knees and spinning attacks taking chances on landing something big. That style can produce highlight finishes or swaying a round but leaves himself exposed when a more measured striker times the entries. The main reason Vera sits at +190 is the recent run, going 1-5 across his last 6 fights. That looks ugly on paper, but those losses came against former champions and other top names in the division. Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, and rising prospect David Martinez. Sure, Jourdain has been on a winning streak but the quality of opposition has not matched Vera’s recent slate. Wins over Davey Grant, Victor Henry and Kyler Phillips are lower level and a are a big step down from the names Vera has been facing. The two higher-level tests Jourdain has taken recently went the other way. Jean Silva knocked him out in round 2 and Sean Woodson took a decision. Vera might look less sharp of late yet that downturn looks more like a product of the competition than a collapse in skill. Jourdain has tools but is also reckless in exchanges in the pocket. Vera is the more technical fighter and should find windows of opportunity as Jourdain comes forward. Also, Jourdain tends to win rounds by small margins, just edging out rounds with a few strikes. That lack of clear separation makes the current line look wide as Vera should have competitive rounds against him. Durability matters here too. Vera has never been finished as a professional and that history matters against a fighter who hunts highlight moments and can get sloppy doing it. This matchup should play closer than the number suggests. At these odds Vera still holds value.

Play: Marlon Vera +190

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

A little late to the party here after seeing the 9.5 flash on Sunday and not grabbing it right away. Hence, the free play versus a premium. Both teams have faced Oregon State this season. Houston beat them 33-20 in Week 1 and held the Beavers to 26 rushing yards. Texas Tech went to Corvallis a week later and won 35-24 while giving up 472 total yards. Two wins over the same opponent, but the box score tells a different story.

If you recall we took under 10.5 wins +185 on here as a free play to start the season. Primarily because the overhype coupled with the giant bullseye on the Red Raiders back for the offseason drama involving Brendan Sorsby. And after seeing Will Hammond for two games we now know why they fought so hard for him.

Couple of injuries on the Tech side of the ball. Tight end Terrance Carter (foot) and edge rusher Trey White (knee) are both game time calls.

Yes, Lubbock at night is worth five to the number. The place is a hostile environment. Texas Tech has won six in a row in this series, including 35-11 in Houston last year. Might be time for the streak to be broken. Worth a little moneyline sprinkle.

PLAY: Houston +7.5. 

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

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New Mexico has been much better through two games than the market would normally expect from a three-touchdown-plus road underdog. New Mexico is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS, has outscored Central Michigan and Mercyhurst 108-14, and has allowed only 304 total yards across those two victories. New Mexico owns a 47.9% offensive success rate, has scored 4.99 points per opportunity, and has yet to turn the ball over. The Lobos have established an identity on the ground, running on 65.3% of their plays with a 53.2% rushing success rate, 0.32 rushing PPA and 3.40 line yards, while producing 492 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through two games. That rushing profile is especially useful when catching double-digits because New Mexico can shorten the game, reduce possessions, and make it harder for Oklahoma to generate the margin needed to cover. The Lobos have also produced explosive plays when they do throw: last week, four of their seven completions gained at least 20 yards, two went for 40-plus, and they averaged 24.7 yards per reception. Even with starting quarterback Jack Layne unavailable, New Mexico has continued producing offensively, which speaks to how effectively the Lobos have adapted around their ground game.

The New Mexico defense is the more compelling reason to take this many points. The Lobos' stop unit boasts a 22.9% defensive success rate, while opponents have completed only 46.5% of their passes for 3.9 yards per attempt and 167 total passing yards; the Lobos have also produced five interceptions and eight sacks. Their advanced pass-defense numbers are equally impressive, with a 17.4% success rate allowed and a -0.29 PPA, giving them a potentially favorable matchup against an Oklahoma passing attack that has yet to establish consistent efficiency. Oklahoma is coming off a 17-10 loss at Michigan in which quarterback John Mateer threw a costly late interception, and the Sooners have generated only a 45.2% offensive success rate through two games. Oklahoma rushing numbers are even less impressive: a 49.2% success rate is respectable, but the Sooners have produced only 270 rushing yards, 4.0 yards per carry, and two rushing touchdowns, with a mediocre 0.05 rushing PPA and poor 23.1% stuff rate. Oklahoma has just three offensive touchdowns through two games, which matters when asked to win by more than three touchdowns. The Sooners unquestionably possess an enormous talent advantage—Oklahoma ranks 14th in talent profile compared with 105th for New Mexico—but the handicap is about whether that advantage translates into a margin of at least 23 points, not whether Oklahoma wins the game.

Technician’s Corner

The technical portfolio provides additional support for taking more than three touchdowns with New Mexico. The strongest systems center on large underdogs coming off dominant victories, which fits a Lobos team entering 2-0 after another blowout win.

• Large underdog off a blowout win: Underdogs of +17 or greater coming off a win by at least 35 points are 117-79 ATS (59.7%) since 1989;

• Early-season version is even stronger: Underdogs of +17 or greater in Weeks 1-5, coming off a 35+ point victory with a total of 60 or lower, are 38-20 ATS (65.5%);

• Broader double-digit dog system: Underdogs of more than +10 following a victory by at least 35 points have gone 229-175 ATS (56.7%) since 1989;

• Run-heavy road underdogs: Unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 or lower are 482-370 ATS (56.6%). This is particularly relevant to a New Mexico offense that has already rushed for 492 yards, averages 5.1 yards per carry, and runs the ball on 65.3% of its plays;

• Dominant two-way performance: Teams coming off a game in which they scored 58+ points while allowing fewer than 10 are 136-105 ATS (56.4%) since 2013.

Rather than treating the 117-79, 229-175 and 38-20 records as three independent indicators, they should be viewed as increasingly specific versions of the same underlying situation: the market asking a team coming off a dominant performance to suddenly absorb a massive number. That complements the matchup case for New Mexico, whose run-heavy offense can shorten the game while its defense has allowed opponents just 3.9 yards per pass attempt through two games. With Oklahoma coming off a 17-10 loss at Michigan and now being asked to win by at least 23 points, the technical profile provides another layer of support for New Mexico +22.5. Grab the inflated number with the Lobos as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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Louisville has the defensive strength to disrupt the foundation of SMU’s explosive offense: pressure on Kevin Jennings. Jennings has completed 71.2% of his career passes with a 36-to-14 touchdown-to-interception ratio when kept clean, but his completion rate plunges to 50.2% under pressure, where he has thrown 12 interceptions. Louisville has the personnel to exploit that split with Clev Lubin and AJ Green coming off the edges; Lubin has a 23.8% pass-rush win rate since 2025, the best among active Power Four players, while Green ranks fourth at 21.4%. SMU’s offensive line has been excellent, allowing pressure on only 12% of dropbacks, but this is easily its most demanding pass-rush matchup of the young season. Louisville also gets an important defensive reinforcement in linebacker Kalib Perry, who is eligible to return, giving Jeff Brohm another piece in a game where containing Jennings inside the pocket is critical. The Cardinals should also be highly motivated by last season’s 38-6 loss at SMU, but that score needs context: Louisville entered that game without its starting quarterback and top two running backs and then lost its top receiver during the contest.

The larger reason to back Louisville is the rapid development of Lincoln Kienholz and an offense that has been far more explosive than anticipated. After an uneven first half against Ole Miss, Kienholz has thrown for 593 yards, 106 rushing yards, and seven total touchdowns over his last five quarters, including an 83.9 passing grade in the 59-13 rout of Villanova. Through two games, Louisville is averaging 552 yards and 48.5 points per game, while Kienholz has thrown for 639 yards and leads the Cardinals with 111 rushing yards, giving SMU another dimension to defend when the pocket breaks down. Louisville owns a 54.5% offensive success rate, a 56.7% passing success rate, and a 0.73 passing PPA, with the latter sitting in elite territory nationally. The Cardinals are completing 68.4% of their passes while averaging an exceptional 12.6 yards per attempt, and they have not thrown an interception. Louisville also brings substantial offensive continuity into 2026 with 73.3% returning production, including 83.9% of its rushing production, which helps explain why the offense has been able to produce immediately despite having a new starting quarterback. The encouraging injury development is that running back KeyJuan Brown is no longer listed on Louisville’s injury report, while expected starting left tackle Anwar O’Neal is probable and could make his season debut.

SMU unquestionably represents Louisville’s toughest defensive test—the Mustangs are averaging 41.5 points and 566 yards per game, and Jennings has already thrown for 767 yards and eight touchdowns—but signs suggest their 2-0 record slightly overstates how dominant they have been. SMU’s defense has been excellent at limiting passing efficiency, allowing only 5.0 yards per attempt, but its advanced pass-defense explosiveness number is considerably less impressive, creating an opening for a Louisville offense built around chunk plays. The situational profile also favors the Cardinals: Louisville is at home, laying -1.5, and Jeff Brohm has historically been excellent in this price range, going 75-20 SU and 58-32-2 ATS as a favorite of six points or fewer. Let’s also note that Louisville is 9-2-2 ATS as an ACC home favorite,

With Kienholz surging, Louisville's pass rush capable of attacking Jennings’ biggest weakness, and Brown returning, take Louisville as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Sometimes you have to trust the process, even when recent results make one side look far superior on paper. Bowling Green is 0-2 and coming off a 56-7 loss at Nebraska, but that score needs context: Nebraska brings a far more explosive offense than Iowa State and is capable of putting up points in a hurry.

Iowa State, meanwhile, is in a difficult scheduling spot. The Cyclones are coming off an emotional in-state rivalry game against Iowa, where they came up short 16-13 as a 14-point underdog, and now have their Big 12 opener against No. 17 Utah on deck. That is the type of situation that can create a flat performance as they are looking ahead to Utah.

This also sets up as a classic sandwich spot for Iowa State. Bowling Green is the game sitting between a rivalry matchup with Iowa and a conference showdown against Utah, making it easy for the Cyclones to view this as a game they only need to show up to win. That is never the mentality you want from a team laying a large number.

Expect Iowa State to control the game with its rushing attack rather than push the tempo. A ground-heavy approach can move the chains and win the game, but it also keeps the clock moving, shortens possessions, and makes it more difficult to create the margin needed to cover a big spread.

Bowling Green’s most recent result is ugly, but the matchup, scheduling dynamics, and expected game script all point to value with the underdog catching an inflated number.

TAKE BOWLING GREEN

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Green Bay First Half (#251)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Sunday NFL action: Packers vs Jets ad Ravens vs Saints.  Here’s a brief write-up of my Green Bay vs New York betting opinion.

I don’t trust the Packers to hold leads right now, considering they’ve blown four double digit leads while losing six straight dating back to last year.  That said, Green Bay has been good enough to build those leads, and the Jets off a dominant showing in Tennessee — heck, the Jets off a rare win — are primed for a lesser performance here. Geno Smith wasn’t touched by the Titans defense; the Packers sacked Carson Wentz three times last Sunday and picked off Kyler Murray once.  Look for the Packers to get the lead here, and with our ‘first half’ bet, we won’t need to worry if they blow it.  Take the Packers FIRST HALF.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take Miami- Wake Forest OVER (#107-108)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Friday Night College Football: Miami vs Wake Forest and Texas Tech vs Houston  Here’s a brief write-up of my Miami - Wake opinion.

Wake Forest has been an Over machine; 6-0 to the Over in their last six contests dating back to last year.  Their defense is gassed off a double OT affair at Purdue, bad news against the ‘Canes dynamic attack, with WR Malachi Toney and QB Darian Mensah rising near the top of the Heisman Trophy odds board.  Miami was missing their top three cornerbacks last week - -not a problem vs Florida A&M but quite likely a problem against the Demon Deacons on Friday Night.  Expect touchdowns in bunches.  Take the OVER.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on the Jets.

Who in their right mind would even consider betting on the Packers as a road favorite at this point? I mean unless you drank too many glasses of Italian house wine, then you should think twice about backing the Packers laying points. Now forget about the Jets win at Tennessee, we can't read too much into that. The Jets last year were a good bet as a home dog, covering in five of eight home games. The Packers can't run the ball, and that's a recipe for disaster as a favorite on the road. Take the points with Geno and the Jets.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take North Carolina (#119)

The ‘Wake Up & Win’ video posted below is for Saturday’s college football: early start games Clemson - North Carolina and Georgia - Arkansas.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Tar Heels - Tigers matchup.

I’ve been betting full time in Las Vegas since 1998; this is my 29th consecutive football season betting here in Sin City.  If there’s ONE lesson I’ve learned over the years, it’s this: When a supposed contender team starts to go south, they become unbettable.  Look no further than Florida State over the previous two seasons under Mike Norvell, or LSU to close out the Brian Kelly era for two recent examples.  Clemson certainly has that ‘feel’ in 2026; not a team I can comfortably support laying points as a favorite.  Belichick alone is probably worth a field goal against Dabo!  Live dog here!  Take North Carolina

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Play: Washington +4.5

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Washington held the ball for 33:20 and had twice as many first downs as Philadelphia... and lost but got the cover.  A healthy Jayden Daniels went 18-of-34 for 164 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

We were on the Giants on Sunday night. Dallas never led in New Jersey. Not once. They held the ball for 23:20, ran it 18 times for 69 yards, and gave up 394 yards and 165 on the ground with zero sacks and zero takeaways. That is the same defense that allowed 511 points last season, the most in the league, and it is now down its signal caller. DeMarvion Overshown, Malik Hooker both added to the IR. Marist Liufau is already out. Their Pro Bowl left guard is gone too. Tyler Smith is on injured reserve and cannot come back before Week 5, with T.J. Bass making the starts. Dorance Armstrong comes off his suspension for this one.

Give me the Commanders and the points.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

Lets not overreact to the Bengals winning and the Texans losing in Week 1. Cincinnati heads out on the road traveling to Houston. The Texan's #1 ranked defense couldn't stop Joe Burrow, but I don't think it's wise to assume Joe Burrow and the Bengals can easily replicate that success. CJ Stroud finally has some weapons on offense, with a healthy receiving corps and a pair of capable running backs. He's thrown 12 TD passes and just 1 pick at home since the beginning of last season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

JETS +3.5

I know Green Bay is the more highly regarded team, but I really like the Jets getting +3.5 at home against the Packers.

The first thing I love about this number is the 3.5. If this game comes down to one possession, the Jets have a lot of ways to cover. A 27-24 Packers win, a 24-21 Packers win or even a Jets outright victory all cash this ticket.

Green Bay is laying 3.5 despite going just 6-11 against the spread last season, including only 2-6 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or more. That's a pretty important historical warning sign when we're being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Packers.

The Jets also come into this game with confidence after beating Tennessee 23-10 in Week 1. They controlled the game defensively and did enough offensively to win comfortably. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Week 1 performance wasn't enough to justify treating them as a team that should automatically be laying more than a field goal on the road.

And this is a home game for New York. That's significant when we're taking +3.5. The Jets don't need to dominate Green Bay — they need to stay competitive for four quarters, and playing at home gives them a better environment to do exactly that.

I also don't think we should overlook the way the Jets' defense performed in Week 1. They held Tennessee to just 10 points, and if they can create another game where the opposing offense has to consistently earn every yard, that makes +3.5 extremely valuable.

There is one legitimate concern: New York will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is expected to miss at least one week after suffering a groin injury. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. is also expected to miss time.

But at +3.5, I don't need the Jets to be the better team overall. I need them to make this a competitive game, and I believe they're capable of doing that.

MY PLAY: JETS +3.5.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

North Texas is rebuilding under Neal Brown, but through two games I think this offense is ahead of schedule. The opener was a brutal assignment on the road against defending national champion Indiana, and even in a 52-16 loss there were positives. Tayven Jackson completed 22 of 28 passes for 192 yards, and North Texas had 16 points through three quarters before the game completely got away from them.

Then we saw what this offense could do against a much more reasonable opponent. UNLV went into North Texas in a game where the Mean Green were actually underdogs, and North Texas absolutely destroyed them 44-6. Jackson threw for 233 yards and two touchdowns, while the Mean Green ran for 183 yards and averaged right around 4.8 yards per carry. They scored on the ground, through the air and put up 44 against a UNLV team that was expected to be competitive.

Now they get a Texas State defense that has been getting shredded. The Bobcats opened the season by allowing 59 points at Texas, then came home and lost 31-26 to UTSA. Through two games, Texas State is allowing 45 points and 457 yards per game, including more than 300 passing yards per game. That's a major step down in defensive difficulty from what North Texas faced at Indiana.

Jackson is also starting to look comfortable in this offense. He's completing 68.5% of his passes through two games, and against UNLV we saw North Texas establish the running game while still creating explosive plays through the air. That's exactly what I want when playing a team total—we don't need North Texas to rely on one specific part of the offense.

The full-game total is sitting around 63.5, so the market is already expecting points in this matchup. I think North Texas can hold up its end. This is a rebuilding roster, but there appears to be legitimate offensive talent here, and the 44-point performance against UNLV showed how quickly things may be coming together.

We only need 31 points against a Texas State defense that has allowed 59 and 31 in its first two games.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Missouri State earned a 21-20 road win at Marshall last season as a 7.5-point road 'dog. Marshall's hopes of getting some revenge for that loss took a big hit last week against Middle Tennessee as starting QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson suffered a shoulder injury. Early injury reports have him listed as questionable for this clash with the Bears, but his status is very important to monitor through out the week. After losing 50-0 at Texas A&M to open the year, Missouri State recovered with a 48-14 home win over FCS-level Lindenwood last week. There's not much to learn from those two results, so the Bears largely remain a mystery in the betting market. If Del Rio-Wilson is unable to go, we still have interest in the Herd. Tony Gibson strikes us as the kind of coach that can play up the revenge angle from last year. Fifth-year senior Zion Turner has experience, so while there is a drop-off from the talented Del Rio-Wilson, the learning curve of this offense won't be steep.
Play Marshall

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

A few weeks ago, the popular refrain from USC was that the “preseason” portion of the schedule would end as soon as Big Ten play commenced this week. That was before, however, we and everyone else got a good look at Saturday foe Rutgers, which is fortunate the Big Ten isn’t like the English Premier League and demotes the bottom three finishers to the MAC or Conference USA. The Scarlet Knights got boat-raced by 4-TD underdog UMass in the opener then lost at Boston College last Friday. Regional sources are now wondering that with a new athletic director and school prexy on board since his hire after the 2019 season, if perhaps head coach Greg Schiano’s only lifeline to the end of the season is a contract buyout (reportedly in the $17-18 million range) that a debt-ridden athletic department might not be able to swallow at the moment. It gets tougher for Schiano to fight back without a reliable QB, which he apparently doesn’t have after his first two options (transfer Dylan Lonergan, who missed the BC game due to injury, and third-year holdover AJ Surace) combined for a ghastly seven picks in the first two games. So, it seems like the “real season” for the Trojans now waits to begin next week vs. Oregon, while QB Jayden Maiava (81-percent completions, ten TD passes and just one interception in three games) has a chance to further fuel his fledgling Heisman campaign and impress some voters in the Eastern Time zone by detonating the Lincoln Riley offense, which is scoring at a brisk 43 points per game clip, in Piscataway. There is a significant caution at this inflated price, however, as the Trojan defense has leaked in the late going of the San Jose State and Louisiana Ragin’ Cajun blowouts while new (but veteran) defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has subbed freely to blood many his touted bluechip acquisitions. Indeed, the backdoor has already swung wide open a couple of times with the Spartans and Cajuns each taking advantage, and while Schiano’s QBs have been error-prone, they are likely to keep firing away for 60 minutes. With the meat of the schedule dead ahead, is there any reason for Riley to stay on the accelerator the whole way? One last reminder...the Trojans have yet to cover a spread in eight tries on the Big Ten road outside of Los Angeles County (which omits a close win over a subpar UCLA in nearby Pasadena two years ago) since joining the loop in 2024.
Play the Over

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

If you would have printed out the box score and handed it to Panthers' fans before Sunday's game against the Bears, almost every Carolina fan would have signed up for it on the spot. You're tellin' me we're going to score 37 points and generate 478 yards with 24 first downs while going 4-for-4 in the red zone?! We would imagine that most folks inside Bank of America Stadium would have signed up for that. Unfortunately, those numbers were only good enough for a 22-point defeat against the white-hot Bears. Bryce Young has seemingly formed a nice bond with Jalen Coker, but an offense with only two viable receivers (along with Tetairoa McMillan) is likely going to struggle. Xavier Legette and Jimmy Horn Jr. both failed to catch a pass on Sunday and Horn Jr. fumbled a punt, which has seemingly sealed their fate at the bottom of the depth chart. With Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both unavailable, the Falcons called upon Cooper Rush for a surprise start against the Steelers. Trailing by three with the ball near midfield in the fourth quarter, Rush had a screen pass intercepted by TJ Watt and returned for a touchdown. When asked about the potential return of either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, Falcons' head coach Kevin Stefanski simply replied, "No updates" in his Monday press conference. Carolina has had Atlanta's number over the past few years (4-1 straight-up and ATS last five meetings), and even though things got out of hand against the Bears, the Panthers still have some positives to take away from that result.
Play Carolina Panthers

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

The case for the Over begins with a Penn State passing attack that has been far more explosive than its overall scoring numbers suggest through two games. The Nittany Lions own a 47.8% offensive success rate, but the passing game jumps to 54.5% with an elite 0.71 PPA and 1.86 explosiveness rating. Rocco Becht and the Penn State quarterbacks have completed 75.9% of their passes, averaged 11.0 yards per attempt, and produced seven touchdown passes without an interception. Becht followed the opener by completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards and three touchdowns against Temple, showing Penn State can generate points efficiently through the air even as its running game remains inconsistent. The Nittany Lions’ aerial attack looks especially attractive against a Buffalo pass defense that has surrendered 7.6 yards per attempt, six touchdown passes, and 590 passing yards through two games. Buffalo's 1.98 defensive passing explosiveness ranks 131st, creating the kind of big-play vulnerability that Penn State's efficient passing attack can exploit. The Bulls have also generated only three sacks, so Becht should have opportunities to attack vertically. While Penn State's offense is playing at a relatively deliberate 29.3 seconds per play, the strongest path to the Over is through explosive scoring efficiency and short drives created through the passing game.

Buffalo is playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country (16.6 seconds when leading and 22.9 seconds when trailing), which will preserve possessions even if Penn State builds a substantial lead. Buffalo owns a +2.9% pass rate over expectation and throws on 59.5% of its offensive snaps, an aggressive profile that should keep the clock from continuously running in a game where the Bulls are likely to be chasing points. Although Buffalo's overall 32.7% success rate ranks only 132nd, its 1.37 explosiveness rating is much more respectable, and five passing touchdowns through two games show that the Bulls can still manufacture scoring plays despite poor down-to-down efficiency. Wide receiver Chance Morrow has accounted for all five Buffalo touchdowns and enters this matchup tied for the FBS lead with five touchdown receptions.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database highlights several independent historical profiles supporting a high-scoring affair, the strongest of which involve low totals in games involving massive favorites:

• Large college football favorites of more than 32 points in games with totals below 56 are 276-164 to the Over (62.7%), producing +19.8% ROI since 1990;

• College football games in which the total is less than the point spread plus 14 points have gone 252-149 Over (62.8%), with a +20.0% ROI since 2004;

• Non-conference road underdogs of +35 to +50 with totals of 65 or fewer are 262-181 to the Over (59.1%), generating +12.9% ROI since 1989;

• Large college football favorites of 31 points or more with totals of 51 or fewer in games starting before 4 p.m. are 21-5 to the Over (80.8%), with a +54.2% ROI.

Penn State carries the larger scoring burden, and the combination of its efficient passing game, Buffalo's extreme vulnerability to explosive passes, and the Bulls' aggressive tempo creates a realistic script in which the Nittany Lions push into the 40s while Buffalo supplies enough points on the other side. With Penn State holding a major offensive matchup advantage and Buffalo structurally inclined to speed up the game rather than shorten it, take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Oregon Ducks (ATS) | Good until -59.5.

Oregon got humiliated last week against Oklahoma State, getting torched both on the scoreboard & the stat-sheets. Portland State hasn't looked great this season, which makes this a prime blowout spot. Oregon will be mad and want to prove to everyone that it's still a contender. This line is ridiculously large. But, we saw what Miami did last week as a similar sized favorite. Go with Oregon.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

I am putting Texas Tech on Upset Alert! Everyone can see it, there is a consensus opinion that the Red Raiders have lost a step, and they aren't living up to expectations as favorites to win the BIG12. After a lackluster performance in their season opener versus Albien Christian, they barely beat the Beavers as a 26.5 point favorite in Corvallis on Saturday. The final score doesn't tell the whole story, as the Beavs had the ball down 28-24 inside 2 minutes remaining. They ended up turning the ball over and giving up another TD. The box score shows that Oregon State dominated total yards, and QB Braden Aktinson threw for 413 yards and a pair of TDs. Will Hammond has failed to impress for the Red Raiders. Houston may have the better quarterback and the better coach, and the advantages the Red Raiders were expected to have may not be as significant as expected.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Chargers knocked a ton of survivor players out with a 26-14 loss at home last week to an Arizona team that had a preflop win total of 4.5. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he regretted not getting his starters more playing time in the preseason, and it showed on the field. LA had 2 turnovers and was outgained 393-268 in total yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders handled business in a 2 touchdown win over Miami as the Klink Kubiak era got off to a good start. Also keep in mind that this will be like a home game for the Raiders due to the huge fan base and the lack of local support for the Chargers. Vegas still has a ways to go before becoming a serious contender, but we’ll play the number getting a full touchdown against a Chargers’ squad that was clearly overvalued in the betting market. Take the Raiders.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Dabo Swinney will be shown the door soon at Clemson and we’ll fade them with points in our pocket as they clash with UNC on Saturday. The season started with a humiliating 51-10 loss to LSU and last week the Tigers failed to cover again against Georgia Southern. Once an elite organization, Swinney’s inability to adjust to the current landscape of college football has led his team straight downhill, and they’re off to an 0-2 ATS start as a result. North Carolina got their revenge on TCU to kick off the season, winning outright as over a touchdown underdog before an easy winner against ETSU. Bill Belichick has essentially had 3 weeks to prepare for this game after facing the much lower level competition, and we have a live dog on our hands when the Tar Heels head to Clemson in early action Saturday. Take UNC.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The Hoosiers dominated each of their first two opponents but came up just short of covering. Laying -40.5 points, they beat North Texas by 36. Last week, laying -57.5, they won by 55. This week's number isn't as big as last week's and should allow the defending champs a chance for their first ATS victory. WKU has played a very tough schedule, as this will be its third straight road game. WKU lost by 50 at Georgia last week and by 35 at Nevada to start the season. If the Wolf Pack can beat the Hilltoppers by 35, imagine what the Hoosiers will do. Catching their guests playing a third straight road game, the Hoosiers should be able to win by at least as many as Georgia did. Expect this one to be totally lopsided from the start.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago