Free Sports Predictions AUG 31: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Take Minnesota (#914) (listed pitchers)

The Tigers sold at the trading deadline.  They enjoyed a short, temporary bump immediately after the deadline in large part due to their schedule, catching bad/mediocre teams like the Athletics, Giants and Guardians when they were slumping.  But with a chance to save their season and get back in playoff contention, the Tigers got swept at home by the White Sox two weeks ago and they haven’t recovered since.

The results do not lie.  Detroit is 3-12 in their last 15 games; playing like a team that’s just playing out the string.  Starter Jackson Jobe isn’t eating up innings; the bullpen behind him has been roughed up and overworked.  Twins starter Taj Bradley is coming off an 11 strikeout performance in hitter friendly Sacramento in his last outing; Minnesota snapped out of their funk with a series finale victory against Chicago yesterday.  Short home chalk worth laying here!  Take the Twins.

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914 Detroit at Minnesota

The Tigers recent 2-8 run all but put an end to their season. They traded away the franchise starter, and the offense has done very little all season long. In fact, over the last week the hitting has been especially bad. Now they take on the Twins team with a much better offense, along with a comparable starter. This line should be closer to the -140 range.

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Think this is a good situation to back the Padres after they were swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay. It was certainly uncharacteristic to see the bullpen give up leads in back to back games, especially yesterday with closer Mason Miller, who blew a save opportunity for just the second time 34 appearances this season. That required a fluke game-tying HR in the bottom of the ninth that you have to see to believe.

Conversely, I think Monday is also a good time to fade the Reds. I cashed a 5% MAX BET with them Sunday night, in the F5 with Chase Burns on the mound. But we typically see teams struggle after playing Sunday night, particularly when travel is involved. In this case with the Reds, this will also be their first game back at Great American Ballpark after a 9-game road trip. It sets up as a classic "flat spot" for a team that's been outscored by 108 runs this season (3rd worst differential in MLB).

Anchored by Miller, the Padres have a top 5 bullpen ERA (3.49). Reds' relievers have combined for the sixth HIGHEST ERA (4.72) in all of MLB, which is why yesterday's 5% MAX BET was confined to only the first five innings. So, despite what we've seen unfold each of the L2 days, SD will have the decided edge late in this game. As far as the starting pitching matchup goes, Michael King has delivered four consecutive quality starts for the Padres, including seven shutout innings last time out. Meanwhile, Cincy's Brady Singer has a 4.85 ERA in August. The Padres have been a top five offense (runs scored, wRC+) since the All-Star Break. The Reds have the lowest team batting average at home (.218) in all of baseball this season.

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Detroit Tigers First 5 Innings ML (+105) over Minnesota Twins

This is a starting-pitching matchup where I want the Tigers for the first five innings. Jackson Jobe has been really good outside of one rough home start against the White Sox. Take that outing away, and Jobe's other three starts this season have produced 14.2 innings, only nine hits and two earned runs allowed. Detroit is 2-0-1 on the First 5 ML in those three starts.

On the other side, Taj Bradley has really struggled in August. He's allowed three or more earned runs in four of his five starts this month, consistently putting Minnesota behind while he's been on the mound. The Twins are 0-3-1 on the First 5 ML across Bradley's recent starts, which is exactly the matchup we're looking to attack.

The key is keeping this to the first five innings. We're isolating the advantage we see between Jobe and Bradley without having to worry about what happens with either bullpen late in the game.

Jobe's one bad outing makes his overall numbers look worse than how he's pitched in his other starts, while Bradley has been consistently giving up runs throughout August. Getting Detroit at a plus-money price makes this even more attractive.

Tigers First 5 Innings ML (+105) is the play.

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Baltimore has an excellent opportunity to move back to .500 against a Colorado team that owns one of baseball’s weakest pitching staffs. The Orioles have a clear starting-pitching advantage with Kyle Bradish facing Tanner Gordon, who enters just 1-4 with a 5.38 ERA. Gordon has been particularly vulnerable at Coors Field, posting a 7.89 home ERA while allowing opposing hitters to bat .332, creating an inviting matchup for Baltimore’s lineup. The Orioles also possess considerably more power, with Pete Alonso leading the club with 32 home runs and 91 RBIs, which is bad news for Gordon, who owns an alarming 1.83 HR/9 rate. Colorado’s pitching staff ranks last in baseball with a 5.49 ERA and sits 30th in strikeouts, while Baltimore ranks third in walks, a combination that should produce plenty of traffic on the bases. Bradish has been inconsistent, but he has recorded at least five strikeouts in 19 of his last 20 appearances when Baltimore has been a road favorite. The situational numbers also strongly favor the Orioles, as Colorado has lost 11 consecutive home games after playing an extra-inning game, while favorites have won each of the Rockies’ last 11 games at Coors Field. Baltimore has also covered the run line in six straight road games against National League West opponents.

From a technical standpoint, American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1613-1089 (59.7%; +1.1% ROI) versus non-division opponents, while unrested underdogs of +110 or greater in Game 1 of a series are 203-416 (32.8%; -20.6% ROI) following an extra-innings affair, losing by an average margin of 1.4 runs per game. Similarly, MLB home underdogs entering off an extra-innings loss are 252-390 (39.3%; -12.6% ROI), including 107-190 (36%; -17.8% ROI) since 2018, losing by an average of 1.5 runs per game. With Gordon’s severe home struggles, take the Baltimore Orioles as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, August 31.

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KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play OVER on road teams when the total is 8.5 to 10, they're off a loss by no more than 2 runs, and their opponent's last 4 games have all resulted in at least 12 total runs scored.

Applies to San Diego.

22-7 (76%) since 2004, going OVER by an average of 2.6 runs per game!

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(905) Miami Marlins at (906) Washington Nationals: Total

First Inning Under 0.5 (-105) Ryan Gusto (RHP), Will Dion (LHP) Must Start

Gusto is 3-0 & 10-3 NRFI with a 3.98 ERA

Dion has made 6 appearances for Washington since being acquired from the Guardians with a 2.70 ERA, and he did not allow a run in 5 of those 6 games. This is his first start.

Miami is 4-1 NRFI & 10-1 NRFI away.

The Marlins have not scored a first inning run on the road in 11 straight games and with a total under 9 they have not scored a first inning run in 18 straight road games.

Washington is 5-1 NRFI and has scored a first inning run only once in their L17 games.

They have gone 15 straight without a first inning run with a total under 9.

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SEATTLE RL Since the Red Sox are fairly heavy favorites on the moneyline, we can get the Mariners at +1.5 runs for a reasonable price. Tolle has been pretty average in his last couple of starts (each went to  extra innings) and the Mariners already beat him earlier this summer. Kirby is coming off a gem. He allowed one run through 7 2/3 innings, striking out nine.  Since the start of 2023, Kirby is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA in four starts against Boston. Seattle won three of the four games and the other was a 1-run Boston win, with the Sox winning 3-2 in 10 innings. While the M's have dropped four straight, the Sox have lost four of five and lost the last two games by a combined score of 25-3. Grab the extra +1.5 runs. *Good to -165

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This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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The Astros won both series in New York last week and hold a 2 game lead in the AL West as they return home to take on the White Sox. While Chicago is trying hard to hold onto a lead of their own in their division, the starting pitching matchup in the opener favors Houston. Anthony Kay is a pitcher primed for regression, ranking in just the 16^th percentile in pitching run value overall with a low K rate. Peter Lambert enters with a wOBA of .292 and has limited the opposition to 2 earned or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. Take the Astros.

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We are down to the last four weeks of the season which means we are also soon running out of chances to go against the Halos. We suspect we’ll miss them; the current losing streak is at 7 as they barrel toward their first-ever 100-loss season. Prospects the rest of the way aren’t too good, either, after recording a 23-56 mark (.291!!) in September since 2023.

Meanwhile, the Yanks hit the Big A after scoring 25 runs across the past two days vs. the Bosox...the same number of runs the Angels have scored in their last nine games. All Aaron Boone asks of starter Elmer Rodriguez is five innings, and the Yanks should so some business vs. suddenly-wobbly Angels starter Walbert Urena (5.29 ERA last four starts). Play Yankees on Run Line

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Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt projects to give up 2.7 runs with a 4.67 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.  Philadelphia’s lineup has hit a solid .351 (27-77) with a strong 1.041 OPS against Pfaadt in his career.  The Phillies will start Aaron Nola.  The righty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.36 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in the Philadelphia’s favor, look for the Phillies to get a solid road win in this game on Monday night.

Play PHILLIES (-).

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(145) Colorado at (146) Georgia Tech: Spread

Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110)

Home-field advantage at Bobby Dodd is meaningful in a season opener.

Georgia Tech returns a more stable overall roster and has a strong rushing identity.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to lean heavily on their running game under new OC George Godsey.

Their defensive front could be the biggest matchup problem for Colorado

If Tech consistently gets 4–5 yards on first down, it can control possession and keep Colorado off the field. That makes Georgia Tech -6.5 considerably more attractive

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 31 Colorado 21

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Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

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This is a top 3 future bet for me. I think we see angry Bills team enter this season and obviously they have Super Bowl aspirations. This team is loaded with talent, is playing in a new Stadium, with a new coach and only has 1 team to beat in the AFC East. That is right, this division is a 2 horse race and I think we see the Pats regress. The Pats benefited from an easy schedule last year, surprised everyone and are not going to the same team as last year. The Bills have the best QB in the division, the best RB in the division and have upgraded their WR core and Oline. Their biggest issue was on defense (generating pressure) and now they have added Bradley Chubb to the mix. The bottom line here is I want an angry Josh Allen, coming off his 1st tough season in a while, in a division with only 1 other team to seriously worry about.

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For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

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This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.

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Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

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The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

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