Free Sports Predictions FEB 4: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Getting down on this one in the overnight betting market for Thursday's betting action. Backing the Buckeyes as the touchdown favorite. Game tips at 8:30pm ET on Fox Sports One.

Ohio State is sitting over (.500) in Big 10 Conference play and has faired particularly well against the lower tier teams in the conference. The Buckeyes have beat every team ranked outside the top 100 nationally since November going (3-1) against the spread. Ohio State is also shooting almost (80%) from the charity stripe if this does become a foul fest late.

Maryland is in free fall dropping each of their last three games and seven of their last eight overall. The Terps are just (1-9) in Big 10 Conference play and have lost each of their last two games by a combined 73 points. This has blowout written all over it, just missed Thursday's client card. Back the Buckeyes for the free pick.

5% THURSDAY “MAX LIMIT" 2 PACK CBB (22-7) $$ TV

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

_{50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!}

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_________

Team comparison (since conference play)

Score prediction

My projected score

Mercer 80 – Chattanooga 70

• This is basically a “Mercer pace vs Chattanooga recent scoring slump” tug-of-war:

  • Mercer has shown real “scoreboard vandalism” potential lately.

Spread (Mercer -4.5)

• My projection implies Mercer by ~10.

• Chattanooga’s recent results include several single-digit losses… and a couple ugly ones.
  

Player matchup notes

Mercer’s whole deal is guard-driven creation — Baraka Okojie is the engine, and when he’s turning possessions into paint touches + kickouts, Mercer can erupt (their recent 100+ outputs weren’t accidents). Chattanooga’s best path is to make Okojie work for everything, keep him off the free-throw line, and prevent the “1 guard collapses you → 3s rain” script from starting.

On the other side, Chattanooga’s recent scoring (and overall Jan–Feb totals) scream “we’re not winning track meets right now.” Jordan Frison is the guy most likely to keep them functional offensively, but if Mercer can turn this into a possession-count game (push after misses, early-clock attempts), Chattanooga gets dragged into the ocean where Mercer swims.

Competition note: both teams’ “since Jan 1” sample is overwhelmingly SoCon play, so the numbers are at least coming from comparable opponent quality — it’s not inflated by a bunch of early-season cupcake totals.

Why I am betting Mercer

Using each team’s recent game logs (all games listed below are in 2026), here’s what the “shape” looks like:

Key split that matters for Mercer -4.5: Mercer’s “Jan 1 onward” away average margin is only about +2 to +3 (they’ve been great overall, but less blowout-y on the road).
Meanwhile Chattanooga’s “Jan 1 onward” home margin is ugly (they’ve been getting outscored at home in this stretch).

Matchup quality check (tempo-free strength)

Mercer is clearly stronger overall (Mercer around +2 AdjEM vs Chattanooga around -11 in that table slice), which supports Mercer being favored even on the road.

Player / role matchups

Mercer’s engines

• Baraka Okojie: 18.8 PPG, 5.8 APG (shot-creator + primary table-setter).

• Armani Mighty: 13.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG (paint scoring + glass).

• Zaire Williams: 12.3 PPG (secondary scorer/spacer).

Chattanooga’s engines

• Jordan Frison: 14.7 PPG, 3.9 APG (usage hub).

• Tate Darner: 9.3 PPG and team-high ~4.0 RPG (their rebounding is very “by committee”).

Injuries

• Chattanooga has Landon Vitters out and Sean Cusano out (both listed as out for remainder of season on Covers).

1. Recent form gap is real. Mercer has been consistently winning in this Jan–Feb segment; Chattanooga has been consistently losing (and getting popped at home).

2. Quality gap backs it up. Tempo-free ratings also like Mercer meaningfully more.

3. Mercer’s offensive “ceiling” travels. Even in their road games in this stretch, they’ve shown they can score plenty (e.g., 102 at UNCG).

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

We have two clubs that played last night and when getting together they do play a bunch of OVERS. In fact they have now gone OVER this number in 5 of the last 6 games between the clubs. This line is still at 5 1 /2 with high juice at the time of this writing at DK and FD with a few others. We do expect it to be 6 over 20 by gametime if not sooner. There is no doubt Vegas is an Over team especially at home and the Kings play more to the Under. We like that Vegas gets to go up against G Forsberg tonight as Kuemper played last night. LA also gets to go against G Hill who is not even close to the goaltender he once was. He sports a 3.51 GAA and a save percentage of .856. They are not good numbers. We also like that Vegas has gone over this total in 6 of their last 8 games. Make it 7 for 9 after tonight.

Don Buster

Released/revised 54 minute(s) ago

ALL-BASEBALL ALL-ACCESS YEAR PASS | EVERY LEAGUE! $699 DISCOUNT

This is an early bird special offered only for a limited time

_{50% OFF Every Baseball League from WagerTalk's Top Capper!}

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers over the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

🔴click here! ➡ https://www.wagertalk.com/profile/tokyo-brandon#specials

Follow
X @Tokyo Brandon
TikTok @tokyobrandonofficial
Instagram @tokyobrandon

_________

Copenhagen Basketball @ Team FOG Naestved

Data pulse: Naestved’s season profile is high scoring, but the matchup math (and the historical series totals trend on this pairing) pulls the expected total down vs 189.5.

Projection: Naestved 94–84 (Total 178)

Take under 185.5 or higher

Last-10 patterns

• Copenhagen last 10: 83.0 scored / 80.1 allowed → 163.1 total.

• Copenhagen last 10 (away): 89.67 scored / 78.83 allowed → 168.5 total.

• Næstved last 10: 103.2 scored / 87.8 allowed → 191.0 total.

• Næstved last 10 (home): 100.0 scored / 86.2 allowed → 186.2 total (basically sitting right under your line).

So the “form math” says:

• Copenhagen drags games into the 160s–high 160s,

• Næstved at home can live around mid/high 180s,

• and the line is asking for the top end of that range.

Home/away context (season)

• Copenhagen season (away): 83.7 scored / 86.9 allowed → 170.6 total.

• Næstved season (home): 105.11 scored / 86.11 allowed → 191.22 total.

Season numbers alone would make you nervous about an under… until you see the matchup history.

Head-to-head / matchup-specific trends (the real hammer)

• Under 186.5 hit in 12 of last 13 Næstved home games vs Copenhagen.

• Under 93.5 1H hit in 7 of last 8 Næstved home vs Copenhagen, and Copenhagen’s own 1H under trends are strong (9/10 games, 8/9 away).

• Copenhagen also shows “high total unders” broadly: Under 184.5 in 13 of last 15 games.

• H2H summary has the combined scoring in this matchup sitting around ~182-ish (PPG 97.6 vs 84.1).
  

Why I am betting the under:

1) Matchup history screams “this series stays under this number”

• Under 186.5 has hit in 12 of the last 13 Næstved home games vs Copenhagen. That’s an absurdly consistent matchup-specific trend at basically the same total range.

2) Copenhagen’s last-10 totals live far below 186

• Copenhagen last 10: 83.0 scored / 80.1 allowed → average game total ~163.1. (scores24.live)
  Even if you think Næstved drags them up, you need a big “pace + efficiency” jump to reach 187+.

3) Copenhagen is structurally an “under team” at high totals

• Trend: Under 184.5 in 13 of their last 15 games. That tells you books often hang totals too high relative to how Copenhagen games actually play.

4) First-half under profile supports a full-game under

This matters because if the game starts slow, you’re not relying on a perfect 4Q.

• In this matchup at Næstved, 1H Under 93.5 hit in 7 of last 8.

• Copenhagen also has strong 1H under streaks (9/10 overall; 8/9 away).

5) The number is priced near the top end of reasonable outcomes

• Næstved last 10 at home averages about 186.2 total (100.0 for / 86.2 against). That’s basically right on your line, meaning you’re betting they don’t reach their ceiling.
  When a total sits at the high end of a team’s typical band, the under benefits from:

• normal shooting regression,

• fewer transition points,

• or just one cold stretch.

6) You don’t need Næstved to “fail” — you mainly need Copenhagen to be Copenhagen

The under is most alive when Copenhagen:

• limits possessions,

• avoids turnover-fueled runouts,

• and keeps their scoring in the 80s (which is their normal world).
  If Copenhagen lands ~82–88, Næstved has to score ~99–105 to beat you — doable, but not the default.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

In terms of a "longshot" Super Bowl bet, I believe this is one worth making.

JSN is currently priced to have a 7-reception, 95-yard performance. If you like the Seahawks' top WR to go Over those numbers, then this is a bet I would definitely make. If he were to go Over those respective numbers, then JSN would certainly be in the MVP discussion.

Only the two QBs have shorter odds. But at this price, JSN is a good value in this market.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

80% (8-2) NFL RUN!

76.5% (13-4) FOOTBALL RUN!

Be sure to grab my BEST BET SUPER BOWL WINNER!

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Cincinnati should be eager to get back on the court after the beatdown they endured by Houston over the weekend. Playing at home has been a different story, as the Bearcats are 11-2 in their home arena and their last 2 games played in Cincy have been wins over Baylor and highly touted Iowa State. They rank top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency and the “revenge angle” is also at play here, and Cincy lost by 2 at West Virginia around a month ago. Take Cincinnati.

87.5% (7-1) NBA RUN!

80% (8-2) NFL RUN!

76.5% (13-4) FOOTBALL RUN!

SPECIAL! Get a 10-Day All Access Pass (every pick in every sport) for the price of a 7-Day Pass!

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Seattle had the least amount of fourth down attempts in the league by a wide margin. With the Seattle defense being so dominant, the offense does not have to force things. Expect them to play the field position game.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Jake Knapp turned in the best season of his career last year, albeit without a win, as he carded multiple Top 20 and Top 10 finishes and is coming off a T5 finish at Torrey Pines when his best ball striking was not with him. Knapp was able to stay in the tournament while gaining 6+ strokes on the greens, but he has gained 2.9 & 2.8 strokes on the greens in his only 2 starts at TPC Scottsdale, so I do think he can replicate that type of game again this week. Jake struggled early in his PGA Tour career off the tee but he has gained strokes to the field while driving in 9 straight starts coming into this week and while he ha T28 & T44 finishes here, he has lost -2.5 & -4.5 strokes off the tee in each of those starts. I like the way Jake Knapp’s game is trending and he is playing much better than he was within his other 2 previous starts at WM Phoenix Open.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

In the Patriots' 10-7 AFC Championship victory over the Broncos, Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 25 times for 71 yards. He was also targeted twice in the passing attack. While his stats weren't eye-popping, he shouldered a massive workload and far outpaced TreVeyon Henderson, who managed just three touches total. Stevenson is expected to remain the lead back for New England in the Super Bowl.

After scoring nine touchdowns during the regular season, Stevenson stands a solid chance of reaching the end zone against the Seahawks. Playing him to get the last one of the game pays out at nearly 10-1.

A long-shot? Absolutely. But one that's entirely possible. Play Rhamondre Stevenson: Last Touchdown Scorer

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

When I initially posted this, Kenneth Walker was -190 on the "anytime touchdown scorer" option and +380 on the "first player to score a touchdown" prop. Of course, the former has the greater likelihood of cashing. However, the latter may offer the better value. If the Hawks score the first TD, Walker has a great shot of being the player that gets it. He did so against the Rams. If looking for a big underdog with a solid shot, this one fits the bill.

Last year's defending football champion Ben Burns has the #1 NFL record again this season ... he's a perfect 8-0 since Christmas. His 9th straight winner is ready to go!

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

The market has officially overadjusted. We are getting TreVeyon Henderson at his lowest rushing prop number of the entire season, all because of a blizzard in Denver. In the AFC Championship, Henderson only saw 3 carries. Why? Because it was a snow globe, and the coaching staff leaned on Stevenson to kill the clock in zero visibility. Do not let one weather-impacted box score fool you. Henderson’s average prop this season was 42.8 yards. We are getting a massive discount at 17.5.

The X's and O's scream "Over." Seattle plays Two-High Safety coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (63%). They invite the run to prevent getting burned deep. Stevenson is a bruiser, but Henderson is the home run hitter. He thrives against split safeties where he can make one cut and go. The data proves it: Henderson had a league-high 56% Success Rate versus that look this season.

Henderson averages 5.1 yards per carry. Even if he splits time, the efficiency match is too good. If he gets just 4 or 5 carries, he clears this number easily. I expect 6-8 touches in a game played on a fast track.

Take the Over 17.5 Rushing Yards good to 20.5

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Walker’s receiving role has become a reliable part of Seattle’s offense, especially with Zach Charbonnet sidelined for the postseason. Over the past five games, Walker has cleared 25+ receiving yards in four outings, including strong production through the two playoff games (78 receiving yards on seven catches). That demonstrates real involvement in the pass game rather than sporadic checkdowns.

The Patriots have allowed over 500 total RB receiving yards this past season, which equates to roughly 30+ receiving yards per game to running backs — a rate that backs up the receiving market for this position group. Walker’s target share and tendencies as a safety valve near the goal line and over middle give him multiple paths to surpass 20.5 yards as long as the Seahawks lean on him extensively and game flow keeps the underneath throws alive.

Given his track record recently and how this game is projected to unfold, 20.5 receiving yards is very much a floor projection rather than a ceiling. The line is short relative to the combination of role, usage spikes, and matchup context.

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Early-round scoring trends heavily favor Novak in this matchup. A few tournaments into the 2026 season, Novak ranks 20th in Round 1 scoring, while Hoey sits down at 153rd, a meaningful gap when isolating first-round performance. That difference reflects preparation and early-round sharpness rather than variance, and it has already shown up on the leaderboard.

Course history and current form further separate the two. Both players missed the cut here last season, but Novak was notably stronger the year prior with an eighth-place finish. Hoey’s early-season results — 50th, missed cut, and 70th — indicate a slow start, while Novak appears to be trending upward after a missed cut in his opening event followed by a seventh-place finish last week. With Novak consistently starting faster and arriving in better form, he holds the edge in Round 1.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Nijmegen vs Volendam
Netherlands Cup, Wednesday, 12:45pm ET

Nijmegen are firing in all cylinders this season, they have the 2nd best offense in the Dutch league with 52 goals in 20 matches. They have scored 2+ goals in 21 of 23 matches in all competitions, and 3+ goals in 12 of 23.

At home they are 8-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals with 25 goals scored and 13 conceded, scoring 2+ goals in all 9 matches, and 3+ goals in 5 of 9, but keeping just 3 clean sheets.

Volendam are W2 D2 L8 on the road in all competitions, with both wins coming in the earlier stages of the Cup competition, where they played against teams from lower divisions. Bad defense, conceded 2+ goals in 7 of 12.

H2H is packed with crazy scorelines, and massive totals (5/7/6/3/5/1/4/4/5/6 in L/10).

Nijmegen should be able to win this, but that -350 on their ML in a Cup match vs a team that will play pretty openly, is not for me. I do see goals here, the question is whether Volendam will score. They did score in each of L/3 H2H, and actually scored 2/2/3 goals in that span.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals in 4-1 in L/5 H2H, and 8-2 in L/10 regardless of venue, but only 2-3 in L/5 in this venue, so be careful with that.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is -118

For some reason, this match feels weird to me, but I am not exactly hot right now. I am taking two small bets on Correct Scores, see if they stick. Mind you, if you do bet these Correct Scores, make sure to be on top of it while the game reaches its final stages in case you want to Cash Out.

Correct Score Prediction:

0.5u on Nijmegen by 3-0 (+850 FD)

0.5u on Nijmegen by 3-1 (+900 FD)

Take 0.5% on Nijmegen to win by 3-1 (+900), line good to +750

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago

This is a low total for Saturday in the Everton and Fulham game, and we believe the market hasn't yet caught up to how poor the Cottagers have been defensively across January.

Fulham sit bottom-of-the-league in defensive xGA since January 1st, but own the second-best scoring record in the league at home across that same timeframe.

Fulham also own the joint-4th highest both teams to score rate inside the first-half of games at home this season as well.

Take the 1H Over 0.75 goals on Saturday in the first-half between Everton and Fulham.

PLAY: 1 OVER 0.75 (-101)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Javid Basharat (-135)

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Brian Harman -140...(3%)

3% thru ML -150

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Both fighters are coming off two straight losses, making this an important fight. Said’s style has been to strike just enough and land a well-timed takedown to steal close rounds, but his cardio has steadily declined. His recent fights lack aggression, his striking isn’t threatening, and his wrestling no longer dominates. Basharat has been humbled recently, losing a close decision and then getting knocked out badly by Ricky Simon, but he’s well rounded with better cardio and a solid ground game to avoid submissions. Without a submission, it’s hard to see Said outpointing Basharat. Basharat should win a decision with better striking output and conditioning.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Super Bowl LX Prop

The distance of the first Field Goal MADE OVER 37.5 yards

Good to -120

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

0.5% Take Steph Diggs UNDER receiving yards

Diggs doesn't have a catch longer than 14 yards in the playoffs. He's gained fewer than 40 receiving yards 11 times this season. He's largely a 'possession' receiver in New England's offense, and this is most assuredly a 'step-up-in-class' defense that Diggs will be facing. Also look at Diggs First Reception of the Game UNDER and/or Diggs Longest Reception of the Game UNDER.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago

(109) Seattle Seahawks at (110) New England Patriots: 1Q Moneyline

2% First Quarter Seattle Seahawks -150

While the line is only -0.5 prefer to lay the juice as I my thought is that if Seattle wins the toss they will defer putting the youngest ever QB to start a SuperBowl on the field.

Seattle has not only covered 5 straight 1Q’s but they covered them by 33 points and with the ML they are 8-1-4 (89%)

The Seahawks are #1 in 1Q scoring and #2 in 1Q defense

The Patriots not only have played the NFL weakest schedule they have played the weakest schedule of any SB team the L20+ years.

If you look at NE’s L6 road games they are 1-4-1 on the ML with the win ay the Jets as a 2 TD Fav.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago

(109) Seattle Seahawks at (110) New England Patriots

2% Shortest touchdown UNDER 1.5 yards.
Value Play on One-Yard Touchdowns:

• One-yard touchdowns can often have a lower public profile, making them a value play, especially in high-stakes games like the Super Bowl where the focus can be on bigger plays.

• The potential scenario of pass interference in the end zone resulting in a one-yard line situation can significantly increase the chances of a one-yard touchdown.

1. Historical Trends:

   • Super Bowl Stats: You noted that there have been one-yard touchdowns in 5 of the last 6, and 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. This shows a strong historical trend, which suggests that this is a recurring situation in the context of big games.

2. Impact of Game Pressure:

   • The two weeks off leading up to the Super Bowl can add pressure on teams, which might lead to mistakes, including penalties in the red zone like pass interference. This can further increase the likelihood of opportunities for one-yard touchdowns.

   • The neutral crowd also plays a role, as players might behave differently without the typical home-field advantage, which can result in more nerves and potentially more fouls.

Released/revised 6 day(s) ago