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UCF Knights at Cincinnati Bearcats

Comparison chart

Cincinnati’s profile since 1/1 is the loudest thing in this matchup: low scoring (64.2 ppg), stingy defense (69.1 allowed), and a very under-ish game shape. UCF is the opposite vibe: higher-event games driven by offense, but with real defensive volatility.

The location matters a lot in this specific pairing:

• Cincinnati at home since 1/1: 67.4 scored / 64.2 allowed (avg total 131.6)

• UCF on the road since 1/1: 73.0 scored / 82.4 allowed (avg total 155.4)

That clash (slow/defensive home team vs swingy road team) usually resolves toward Cincinnati dictating tempo, unless UCF is hitting a ridiculous 3-point heater.

My projection: Cincinnati 72, UCF 69 (total 141)

Spread -4.5 Cincinnati

Two forces collide:

• Cincinnati at home has been solid (3–2 since 1/1), and UCF just got mauled by an elite defensive team (a reminder what happens when UCF’s offense gets dragged into the mud).

• But UCF’s Big 12 results include multiple wins in this window, and Cincinnati’s offense has been unreliable enough that covering margin is harder than simply winning.

Trends/patterns

Straight-up form (since 1/1)

• UCF: 6–4, with losses featuring blowout potential (avg loss margin -18).

• Cincinnati: 3–7, including several close losses and nasty road beatdowns.

Home/away split (since 1/1)

• Cincinnati: home +3.2 avg margin, away -13.0 avg margin (0–5 away).

• UCF: home +2.2, away -9.4.

Against the spread (ATS)

• Vs conference: UCF 5–5 ATS, Cincinnati 4–6 ATS.

• Cincinnati away ATS: 2–7 (ugly travel profile).

Over/Under

• Vs conference: both 2–8 (unders dominating).

• Last 10: both 2–8 (same story).

Head-to-head this season

• At UCF: UCF 73–72 Cincinnati (total 145).

Player matchup breakdowns

Cincinnati’s whole personality is defense + control, and it’s been stress-tested against top-end Big 12 opponents (multiple games vs Houston Cougars men's basketball plus road games at Arizona Wildcats men's basketball / Arizona State Sun Devils men's basketball). That matters because UCF’s most relevant recent comp is also elite defense—UCF just scored 55 at Houston, a reminder that when an opponent can guard without fouling and force long possessions, UCF’s scoring can fall off a cliff.

On the perimeter, the chess match starts with Themus Fulks (engine: 7.0 assists) trying to create advantages against Cincinnati’s ball pressure and physical guards—especially Sencire Harris if he’s good to go after the recent illness stretch. If Fulks can consistently turn the corner and force help, UCF’s wings get cleaner looks; if he’s kept in front, UCF possessions get longer and the game bends toward the under.

As scorers, Riley Kugel and Jordan Burks are the UCF pressure points. Cincinnati’s best answer is to make those touches inefficient—contest without sending them to the line, then end the possession with rebounds. Baba Miller is huge here: he’s Cincinnati’s top scorer and top rebounder, and his length can disrupt the wing/post interface where UCF likes to live.

Inside, the matchup swings hard on Moustapha Thiam’s status. If he’s limited/out (lower-body issue has already cost him time), Cincinnati loses rim presence and a chunk of offense, which makes UCF +4.5 and the under more attractive. If he plays closer to full, Cincinnati’s interior defense plus Miller’s rebounding make it much harder for Jamichael Stillwell (8.0 rebounds) and John Bol to generate second chances—usually the lifeblood of an underdog cover.

Finally, Cincinnati’s rotation disruptions matter: Shon Abaev has been out (ankle), and any limitation to Harris/Thiam compresses their offense even more. That pushes the game toward a “Cincinnati wins ugly” script—good for the under, slightly better for UCF +points than for Cincinnati margin.

(Other 1/1+ opponents referenced once: Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball, Oklahoma State Cowboys men's basketball, Kansas State Wildcats men's basketball, Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball, Colorado Buffaloes men's basketball, Texas Tech Red Raiders men's basketball, West Virginia Mountaineers men's basketball, Baylor Bears men's basketball.)

Why I am betting Under 146.5 (UCF–Cincinnati)

• Both teams have been under magnets in conference play since 1/1. Each at 2–8 O/U vs conference and 2–8 O/U last 10, with Cincinnati Bearcats on an Under 3-game streak.

• Recent game logs scream “lower than the market expects.” Since 1/3:

  • UCF has cashed 8 unders in their last 10 (only 2 overs).

  • Cincinnati has cashed 8 unders in their last 10 (only 2 overs).

• The head-to-head in this window landed below this number. The January meeting ended 73–72 (145 total), which is an Under at 146.5.

• Cincinnati’s identity is defense + shaky offense (classic under cocktail). Even Cincinnati’s own preview material has leaned on their defense as an elite unit (KenPom-adjusted metrics referenced by the program).

• Injury/availability risk points toward fewer easy points for Cincinnati. Their frontcourt has been banged up recently, and coverage around the team notes the under case strengthens if Moustapha Thiam isn’t fully back/available.

• UCF has already shown they can get dragged into the mud by top defenses. They just scored 55 vs Houston Cougars, and Cincinnati’s whole plan is “make your offense miserable.”

• 146.5 is a “high-ish” total for Cincinnati games this season. Cincinnati-focused coverage notes their games have “largely gone under,” citing an Under-heavy season profile, and the posted total is still sitting in the mid-140s.

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Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

These teams last met on September 15, 2024, and the Seahawks walked off the field with a 23-20 overtime win. That result is significant because games between teams that went into overtime in their previous meeting are 286-212-6 to the Under (57.4%) if that game also finished over the total. This situation is 92-60-4 to the Under (60.5%) since 2019. Since 2015, NFL games between teams with seven or more days of rest are 147-101-7 to the Under (59.3%), including 87-57-3 UNDER (60.4%) since 2020, going under by an average margin of -2.0 points per game. Seattle arrives in San Francisco off a 31-27 win over the Rams, which is notable in that Super Bowl teams coming off a game in which they scored more than 24 points are 5-2-1 to the Under (71.4%) since 1990, going under by an average margin of -6.3 points per game. Finally, Seattle is 33-17 to the Under (66%) in games with totals of 45 points or higher, while the Patriots are 30-20 to the Under (60%) in their last 50 games with totals of 45 points or more. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, February 7.

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

New England had a lot of blow-out victories this season, so it's important to filter out the games where the Patriots were essentially running out the clock in the fourth quarter. New England played ten games where they either lost or won by less than a touchdown. In those ten games that were competitive for 60 minutes, Maye averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game. New England is an underdog in this matchup and Maye is likely going to need to throw the ball to keep the Patriots within striking distance. Seattle's defense was No. 1 in EPA per rush attempt and No. 1 in rushing success rate allowed during the regular season. If the Patriots can't get Rhamondre Stevenson going (only 2.8 yards per carry vs Denver two weeks ago), Maye will need to carry New England's offense through the air.

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Rashid Shaheed over 20.5 rec yards.

The Patriots mantra is "do your job", but the other thing that this team had been known for in the Belichick era was taking away the opponent's most effective weapons. Vrabel was a player in that era, and surely he learned a few tricks from Bill. I hear people talking about taking away the run, but I think the priority has to be stopping JSN. The focus on JSN should open things up for the speedster Shaheed.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Will the USA Government have a commercial sport during the Super Bowl? No (-150)

Given this bet is a novelty Super Bowl prop and only available in the "Global betting markets" this is not on the client card. The free pick analysis below:

It is very rare for the USA government to purchase a commercial spot during the Super Bowl. Historically, the last two were Secret Service (2025): A 30-second recruitment ad featuring high-intensity scenes aimed at addressing staffing shortages. Also, Census Bureau (2010): A $2.5 million ad campaign for the 2010 Census, aiming to increase mail response rates.

Given the recent push to cut fraud and waste in government spending I project the likelihood of a $8 million dollar expense this year seems counterintuitive. Do note, there are reports of running a Super Bowl pregame ad for the $1,000 child investment accounts. This is reportedly set to run pregame. This bet is stated for action "From kickoff to end of game". Bet "No".

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Seattle ranks first in yards per rush allowed, which means New England will need to lean more on the passing game, using a lot of high‑percentage check‑downs that basically turn the short passing game into an extension of the run.

If the Patriots are playing from behind in the second half, they’ll be forced to throw even more, and Seattle will happily concede underneath completions to keep everything in front and let the clock run.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

In terms of a "longshot" Super Bowl bet, I believe this is one worth making.

JSN is currently priced to have a 7-reception, 95-yard performance. If you like the Seahawks' top WR to go Over those numbers, then this is a bet I would definitely make. If he were to go Over those respective numbers, then JSN would certainly be in the MVP discussion.

Only the two QBs have shorter odds. But at this price, JSN is a good value in this market.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

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76.5% (13-4) FOOTBALL RUN!

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Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Seattle had the least amount of fourth down attempts in the league by a wide margin. With the Seattle defense being so dominant, the offense does not have to force things. Expect them to play the field position game.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

In the Patriots' 10-7 AFC Championship victory over the Broncos, Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 25 times for 71 yards. He was also targeted twice in the passing attack. While his stats weren't eye-popping, he shouldered a massive workload and far outpaced TreVeyon Henderson, who managed just three touches total. Stevenson is expected to remain the lead back for New England in the Super Bowl.

After scoring nine touchdowns during the regular season, Stevenson stands a solid chance of reaching the end zone against the Seahawks. Playing him to get the last one of the game pays out at nearly 10-1.

A long-shot? Absolutely. But one that's entirely possible. Play Rhamondre Stevenson: Last Touchdown Scorer

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

When I initially posted this, Kenneth Walker was -190 on the "anytime touchdown scorer" option and +380 on the "first player to score a touchdown" prop. Of course, the former has the greater likelihood of cashing. However, the latter may offer the better value. If the Hawks score the first TD, Walker has a great shot of being the player that gets it. He did so against the Rams. If looking for a big underdog with a solid shot, this one fits the bill.

Last year's defending football champion Ben Burns has the #1 NFL record again this season ... he's a perfect 8-0 since Christmas. His 9th straight winner is ready to go!

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

The market has officially overadjusted. We are getting TreVeyon Henderson at his lowest rushing prop number of the entire season, all because of a blizzard in Denver. In the AFC Championship, Henderson only saw 3 carries. Why? Because it was a snow globe, and the coaching staff leaned on Stevenson to kill the clock in zero visibility. Do not let one weather-impacted box score fool you. Henderson’s average prop this season was 42.8 yards. We are getting a massive discount at 17.5.

The X's and O's scream "Over." Seattle plays Two-High Safety coverage at the 2nd-highest rate in the league (63%). They invite the run to prevent getting burned deep. Stevenson is a bruiser, but Henderson is the home run hitter. He thrives against split safeties where he can make one cut and go. The data proves it: Henderson had a league-high 56% Success Rate versus that look this season.

Henderson averages 5.1 yards per carry. Even if he splits time, the efficiency match is too good. If he gets just 4 or 5 carries, he clears this number easily. I expect 6-8 touches in a game played on a fast track.

Take the Over 17.5 Rushing Yards good to 20.5

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Walker’s receiving role has become a reliable part of Seattle’s offense, especially with Zach Charbonnet sidelined for the postseason. Over the past five games, Walker has cleared 25+ receiving yards in four outings, including strong production through the two playoff games (78 receiving yards on seven catches). That demonstrates real involvement in the pass game rather than sporadic checkdowns.

The Patriots have allowed over 500 total RB receiving yards this past season, which equates to roughly 30+ receiving yards per game to running backs — a rate that backs up the receiving market for this position group. Walker’s target share and tendencies as a safety valve near the goal line and over middle give him multiple paths to surpass 20.5 yards as long as the Seahawks lean on him extensively and game flow keeps the underneath throws alive.

Given his track record recently and how this game is projected to unfold, 20.5 receiving yards is very much a floor projection rather than a ceiling. The line is short relative to the combination of role, usage spikes, and matchup context.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Nijmegen vs Volendam
Netherlands Cup, Wednesday, 12:45pm ET

Nijmegen are firing in all cylinders this season, they have the 2nd best offense in the Dutch league with 52 goals in 20 matches. They have scored 2+ goals in 21 of 23 matches in all competitions, and 3+ goals in 12 of 23.

At home they are 8-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals with 25 goals scored and 13 conceded, scoring 2+ goals in all 9 matches, and 3+ goals in 5 of 9, but keeping just 3 clean sheets.

Volendam are W2 D2 L8 on the road in all competitions, with both wins coming in the earlier stages of the Cup competition, where they played against teams from lower divisions. Bad defense, conceded 2+ goals in 7 of 12.

H2H is packed with crazy scorelines, and massive totals (5/7/6/3/5/1/4/4/5/6 in L/10).

Nijmegen should be able to win this, but that -350 on their ML in a Cup match vs a team that will play pretty openly, is not for me. I do see goals here, the question is whether Volendam will score. They did score in each of L/3 H2H, and actually scored 2/2/3 goals in that span.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals in 4-1 in L/5 H2H, and 8-2 in L/10 regardless of venue, but only 2-3 in L/5 in this venue, so be careful with that.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals is -118

For some reason, this match feels weird to me, but I am not exactly hot right now. I am taking two small bets on Correct Scores, see if they stick. Mind you, if you do bet these Correct Scores, make sure to be on top of it while the game reaches its final stages in case you want to Cash Out.

Correct Score Prediction:

0.5u on Nijmegen by 3-0 (+850 FD)

0.5u on Nijmegen by 3-1 (+900 FD)

Take 0.5% on Nijmegen to win by 3-1 (+900), line good to +750

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago