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Bruce Marshall MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(965) Detroit Tigers at (966) Los Angeles Angels: Spread
Date/Time:
Play:
Detroit Tigers -1.5 (105) Action

The Angels have fallen from the basement into a mine shaft, it would seem, their latest skid now 2-12 the last 14 games after last night’s feeble 7-0 loss vs. Tarik Skubal and the Tigers’ bullpen. The Halos are now all alone with MLB’s worst record at 38-61.

Meanwhile, all of the talk about FA-to-be Skubal and Sunday starter Casey Mize (2.79 ERA) might only be talk as Detroit is suddenly into AL wild card contention after winning 11 of 14, and allowing the Angels just one run total across the past two nights while winning in Anaheim. Play Tigers on Run Line

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Tokyo Brandon MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(975) Washington Nationals at (976) Oakland Athletics: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Washington Nationals -130 Action

:baseball:Tokyo Brandon is :chart_with_upwards_trend:+81.43 units in 2026 
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Washington 5.6, Athletics 4.5

Market

Model win probability

Fair odds

Bet odds

Break-even probability

Model edge

Estimated ROI

WSN moneyline

63.1%

-171

-130

56.5%

+6.6 percentage points

+11.6%

1. Major starting-pitcher advantage

Foster Griffin enters 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 109 strikeouts. His last seven starts produced a 1.25 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and only five walks in 43 1/3 innings.

Jacob Lopez enters 4-3 with an ERA near 6.83–7.04 and a WHIP near 1.79–1.84. His recent MLB appearances have included persistent walk and baserunner problems.

Starter

Projected IP

ER

H

K

BB

Foster Griffin

6

2.0

5.0

6.5

1.6

Jacob Lopez

4 2/3

3.1

5.5

4.1

2.6

Washington projects to gain approximately 1.1 runs from the starting-pitcher matchup alone.

2. Griffin’s command reduces Oakland’s upset path

Griffin’s recent five walks across 43 1/3 innings make free multi-run opportunities unlikely. Oakland will probably need several consecutive hits or home-run damage to create a significant early lead.

That profile is especially valuable for a road favorite because it lowers the probability of Washington falling behind before its superior offensive matchup develops.

3. Oakland’s bullpen is in extremely poor form

The Athletics’ relievers have produced a 9.32 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over their last ten games, allowing 87 earned runs, 111 hits, 48 walks and 26 home runs in 84 innings.

Lopez is projected for fewer than five innings, creating approximately four innings of exposure to that bullpen.

4. Washington has a favorable offensive matchup against Lopez

Lopez has allowed a high volume of baserunners, including five walks in one home start and three walks with five earned runs in another recent outing. Washington can use multiple right-handed hitters against the left-hander, including Andrés Chaparro, Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews and Harry Ford.

Washington also demonstrated that it can punish Oakland’s middle relief, scoring 23 runs in the series opener after breaking the game open against the bullpen. Every Nationals starter recorded a hit in that game.

5. Oakland’s lineup is weakened

Nick Kurtz and Zack Gelof are unavailable, removing two important offensive pieces. The Athletics entered the weekend on a ten-game losing streak with a .575 OPS during that stretch.

The current lineup still contains threats such as Jacob Wilson, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom, but the supporting depth is considerably weaker.

6. Washington’s moneyline is preferable to the run line

Washington’s bullpen has been unreliable, so laying -1.5 introduces unnecessary late-inning risk. The Nationals’ relief staff owns a season ERA above 5.00, making a one-run victory more likely than the starter mismatch alone suggests.

The moneyline allows Washington to win close after Griffin leaves without requiring late separation.

Price Evaluation

Nationals odds

Break-even probability

Model advantage

Grade

-120

54.5%

+8.6%

Excellent

-130

56.5%

+6.6%

Strong value

-140

58.3%

+4.8%

Value

-150

60.0%

+3.1%

Playable

-160

61.5%

+1.6%

Marginal

-170

63.0%

+0.1%

Fair/no value

Projected result: WSN 5.6, ATH 4.5

Fair moneyline: WSN -171

Playable through: approximately -150

Released/revised 45 minute(s) ago

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Drew Martin MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(969) Pittsburgh Pirates at (970) Cleveland Guardians: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Pittsburgh Pirates -124 Paul Skenes (RHP) Must Start

The Pirates are playing good ball winning four straight games, including sweeping the first place Brewers and then keeping the momentum into the second half of the MLB season.

These two teams are currently playing in the second game of a double header as I type. The Sunday oddsmakers are currently dealing a (-124) at Fanduel on Pittsburgh. I bring this up because Skenes is on the bump Sunday and the Pirates are likely to let him go a bit deeper into the game the day after having their bullpen pulling double duty, pointing to the slight edge. This bet just missed the Sunday client card. For today's free pick- Bet Pirates.

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Tokyo Brandon JNPB Tab Japan NPB

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Event:
(304001) Fukuoka S. Hawks at (304002) Chiba Lotte Marines: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Fukuoka S. Hawks -148

:baseball:Tokyo Brandon is :chart_with_upwards_trend:+81.43 units in 2026 
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TEAM Hitting

SP Career

SP Season

BP

Team

Starting Pitcher

RPG (12)

RPG L10 (12)

OPS (12)

wOBA (12)

Rank (12)

WHIP

BB/K%

FIP

ERA

WHIP

BB/K%

rank (12)

Hawks

*前田 純

1

2

6

3

4.2

1.29

29.7%

2.50

3.48

0.99

20.0%

1

Marines

*ロング

6

6

4

7

8.6

1.41

38.2%

4.28

4.12

1.32

38.2%

3

SoftBank -145 — small edge, but not a priority

Projected score: SoftBank 4, Lotte 3
Projected SoftBank win probability: 60–61%

Yugo Maeda is an excellent young left-hander and was already 6–0 after SoftBank’s July 1 victory over Seibu. In that game, SoftBank won 11–0. He also limited Orix to two runs in a strong July 8 start, although SoftBank eventually lost 3–2 in ten innings.

The problem is the opposing starter. Austin Long already faced SoftBank on July 4 and was credited with the win in Lotte’s 8–1 victory. That is meaningful recent matchup evidence and prevents me from treating SoftBank as a strong -145 play.

SoftBank advantages:

  • Better overall lineup depth.

  • Maeda has the stronger 2026 performance profile.

  • Better chance of generating scoring opportunities against Lotte’s middle relief.

  • SoftBank should be favored, even on the road.

Reasons not to lay heavily:

  • Long has very recent success against this exact lineup.

  • ZOZO Marine can suppress offense and increase variance.

  • A one-run game is very plausible.

  • The posted price already requires SoftBank to win 59.2% of the time.

Verdict: SoftBank -145 is acceptable.. My fair price is around -155.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

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Oskeim Sports WNBA Tab WNBA Basketball

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Event:
(641) Los Angeles Sparks at (642) Dallas Wings: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 181.5 (-112)

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The under is the preferred play on Sunday as both teams have struggled to produce consistent offensive efficiency throughout the season. Los Angeles has leaned on its defense and rebounding to remain competitive, often slowing the tempo against more talented opponents. Dallas possesses explosive scorers, but the Wings have been inconsistent from the perimeter and have experienced stretches where turnovers disrupt their offensive rhythm. The Wings defend without committing fouls, ranking 4th in FTA (19.2) and 3rd in FTM (15.2). Both teams can force difficult shots with their length and athleticism, particularly around the basket, which should keep scoring opportunities at a premium. If the game remains close, every possession will carry added importance, encouraging more deliberate half-court offense late in the contest. Rebounding and defensive execution should dictate the flow rather than a fast-paced, transition-heavy game. Los Angeles will struggle to find second-chance opportunities on offense, as the Wings rank 3rd in offensive rebounds allowed (7.4). From a technical standpoint, WNBA teams with an average over/under margin of +5.5 or greater are 365-278-7 to the Under (56.8%) from Game 3 forward, including 200-144-4 UNDER (58.1%) since 2017. Moreover, WNBA teams with an average halftime margin of fewer than three points are 246-187-10 to the Under (56.8%) versus opponents with fewer than three days of rest, provided one additional parameter is satisfied. Let’s also note that small underdogs of favorites in games with totals of 172 or more points are 83-68-4 to the Under (55%) since 2017. With both clubs likely to emphasize defense and limit easy scoring chances, this matchup is well-positioned to finish below the posted total. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, July 19.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 192-137 | +85.2 Units
-> Torrid 64-42 (60.4%) Overall Run | +34.4 Units
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
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