(923) Seattle Mariners at (924) Texas Rangers: Total

First Inning Over 0.5 (115) Logan Gilbert (RHP), Jacob deGrom (RHP) Must Start

Both starters have solid ERA’s but are poor first-inning pitchers.

Gilbert has a 3.38 ERA but has 9 YRFI in 20 starts.

deGrom has a 3.76 ERA with 9 YRFI in 19 starts.

Seattle is 3-1 YRFI.

Texas is 6-1 YRFI and 9-2 YRFI at home.

Released/revised 4 minute(s) ago

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The Tigers are in an excellent position to earn the victory behind Framber Valdez against the Royals and Luinder Avila. Valdez is one of baseball's premier ground-ball pitchers, consistently limiting hard contact while working deep into games with outstanding command and poise. The 32-year-old boasts a 51.9% GB% and a 0.91 HR/9 rate. Avila has shown flashes of potential, but facing Detroit's balanced lineup represents a significant step up in competition, especially if he falls behind hitters early in the count. Detroit owns a clear edge in the bullpen, giving the club several dependable late-inning arms capable of protecting a lead. Detroit’s bullpen is 9th in the MLB in both ERA (3.79 ERA) and 3.77 xERA, and 11th in xFIP (4.07). In contrast, Kansas City’s bullpen ranks 29th in both ERA (5.33) and xERA (4.97), and 28th in xFIP (4.82). Kansas City's offense has struggled to consistently produce against quality starting pitching, and Valdez has the repertoire to keep the Royals off balance throughout the game. The Royals rank 18th in OBP (.315) and 20th in SLG (.397). From a technical standpoint, division home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1350-683 (66.4%; +1.5% ROI) and +3.1% ROI against the run line, including 454-204 (69%; +3.9% ROI) and 346-312 RL (+7.4% ROI), winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game. Detroit also falls into a very good 604-234 (72.1%; +5.8% ROI) and 393-342 RL (+4.7% ROI) Day Revenge Game system of mine that dates to 2003 and invests on certain home favorites off a home loss versus .499 or worse opponents, winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game. With the advantage on the mound, the more complete roster, and superior bullpen depth, Detroit is well-positioned to defeat Kansas City. Take the Detroit Tigers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, July 26.

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Cardinals–Reds Over 8.5

1. Kyle Leahy is the clearest over factor

Leahy enters with a respectable 3.59 ERA, but his profile is less stable than that number suggests. He has spent significant time working in relief and may not provide traditional six- or seven-inning starter length. A five-inning-or-shorter appearance would expose the middle of the Cardinals bullpen earlier than usual. The scheduled matchup is Andrew Abbott versus Kyle Leahy.

2. Cincinnati has a realistic path to four or more runs

The Reds face a right-handed starter rather than another ground-ball specialist like Andre Pallante. Cincinnati was shut out Saturday, but that result came against Pallante, who has historically handled the Reds well and then delivered seven scoreless innings. Leahy represents a significantly different and more manageable matchup.

A reasonable Cincinnati scoring range is:

3. St. Louis’ offense finally showed signs of breaking out

The Cardinals scored seven runs Saturday, including a six-run sixth inning. Alec Burleson recorded three hits, while Iván Herrera, Blaze Jordan and Bryan Torres contributed to the rally. That is relevant because the Cardinals had been underperforming offensively before the eruption.

The over does not require another seven-run performance. A 5-4 or 6-3 result is enough.

4. Andrew Abbott is solid, but not an automatic shutdown starter

Abbott enters at 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 90 strikeouts. Those are respectable numbers, but not dominant enough to make an 8.5 total unreachable.

St. Louis’ right-handed and switch-hitting bats can create a more balanced lineup against the left-hander, particularly through Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera and the middle of the order.

5. Cincinnati’s bullpen has accumulated meaningful recent work

The Reds used five relievers for four innings and 55 pitches Friday. Although Saturday’s game required less bullpen work because Hunter Greene reached the sixth inning, Cincinnati still enters the finale with some accumulated series fatigue.

That matters because Abbott has not consistently worked deep enough to remove the middle-relief layer from the game.

6. St. Louis’ bullpen is not completely trustworthy

The Cardinals preserved Saturday’s shutout, but their relief staff loaded the bases in the ninth inning. That creates a positive over angle because even a game that is relatively quiet through six or seven innings can still produce late runs.

The over has multiple late-game paths:

• Cincinnati scoring against St. Louis middle relief.

• St. Louis adding against a tired Reds bullpen.

• A close game forcing both teams to use less-rested leverage arms.

• A one-sided game leading to weaker relievers and lower-quality defensive execution.

7. Warm daytime conditions improve the hitting environment

The Sunday game is scheduled for the afternoon at Busch Stadium, with forecast conditions around 86°F. Warm air generally provides better carry than cooler night conditions, even though Busch Stadium is not among MLB’s strongest home-run parks.

The weather does not create a massive over adjustment, but it is more favorable than a cool or windy night.

8. Defensive mistakes can contribute without being charged to the pitchers

Cincinnati committed three errors by Elly De La Cruz in the first inning Saturday. Defensive volatility is useful for an over because unearned runs still count toward the game total.

Even one additional defensive mistake can create:

• An extra baserunner.

• A longer inning.

• More pitches for the starter.

• Earlier bullpen exposure.

• Runs that are not fully reflected in pitcher ERA projections.

9. Both offenses have recently shown nine-run upside

The Cardinals produced seven runs Saturday. Cincinnati recently scored heavily during its Colorado series, including a stretch powered by ten home runs across the series. That demonstrates that the Reds’ current lineup still has meaningful extra-base-hit upside despite Saturday’s shutout.

Projected score: Cardinals 5.0, Reds 4.1

Projected total: 9.1

Bottom line

The strongest arguments are Leahy’s uncertain starter length, Cincinnati’s bullpen workload, the Cardinals’ offensive breakout, warm afternoon conditions and the possibility of late scoring against either bullpen.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on MIL -1.5.

The Brewers are an enormous favorite on Sunday, but this is a rare spot where I feel comfortable laying the runs. The Brewers have won seven of their last 10 versus Colorado, and they covered the runline in all seven of those wins. Jacob Misiorowski will toe the slab for the Brewers, and he's the favorite to win the Cy Young. He boasts an MLB best 1.57 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. On the other side you have Kyle Freeland who is 0-6 with an 8.28 ERA in nine starts on the road this season. You won't find a bigger mismatch than this!

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Seattle starter Logan Gilbert projects to give up just 2.1 runs with a 3.03 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Texas’ lineup has hit just .217 (26-120) with a weak .610 OPS against Gilbert in his career.  The Rangers will start Jacob deGrom.  The righty projects to give up 2.0 earned runs with a 2.94 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.

Play UNDER the total.

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The Red Sox have gone on a tear in July, winning 15 straight games before a loss to the Orioles in the 2^nd leg of a double header. Now winners of 16 of 18, it’s imperative they continue to win with a jam packed Wild Card race. Ranger Suarez will help them decide the series at Fenway today, and he enters with a wOBA of .276 and a hard hit rate sitting at just 31%. This is his first start since the beginning of the month, but Suarez has held the opponent to 3 runs or less in 6 straight trips to the bump. Boston also has the 2^nd best bullpen in baseball waiting behind him. Kevin Gausman enters in terrible form, having allowed 29 runs over his past 6 starts. Toronto has lost the past 7 times he’s taken the mound and we’ll ride the hot hand as Boston continues to make a push. Take the Red Sox.

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-- -- -- --

Parker Messick gives Cleveland a strong chance to keep it close

Messick enters with a 2.68 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, giving Cleveland the better run-prevention profile of the two starters by ERA.

His previous experience against Tampa Bay is especially encouraging. Messick threw seven scoreless innings with six strikeouts and no walks against the Rays in August 2025.

2. The projected game environment is low scoring

The model projection was:

Lower-scoring games increase the value of receiving 1.5 runs because each run represents a larger share of expected scoring. Cleveland can lose 3-2, 4-3 or 5-4 and still cash.

3. Rasmussen is strong, but not unhittable against Cleveland

Rasmussen has an excellent 0.98 WHIP, but his career results against Cleveland include a 3.57 ERA and an 0-1 record in seven appearances. That does not suggest complete dominance of this particular opponent.

4. Cleveland has the late-inning advantage of batting in the ninth

Because Cleveland is the road team, the Guardians are guaranteed a top-of-the-ninth opportunity unless the game ends earlier in unusual circumstances. Tampa Bay might not bat in the bottom of the ninth when leading.

That structure helps a road underdog cover +1.5:

• Cleveland gets a final opportunity to cut a two-run deficit to one.

• Tampa Bay can win without adding insurance in the bottom of the ninth.

• A one-run Rays win is naturally more likely than it would be if Tampa Bay were the visiting team.

5. Tampa Bay does not need to win by two

Late in a tied game, Tampa Bay’s goal is simply to win. A walk-off single with a runner on second usually produces a one-run victory, which cashes Cleveland +1.5.

Extra innings are therefore useful for the Guardians run line, even when Tampa Bay ultimately wins.

6. Cleveland’s weak recent offense matters less on the run line

Cleveland has lost four straight and scored only four runs across its previous three games. That is clearly a concern, but the +1.5 wager does not require Cleveland to win or score heavily. A three-run offensive performance may be sufficient when Messick starts.

7. The market expects a close game

The current run line is approximately Guardians +1.5 at -193, while Tampa Bay -1.5 is around +158. The heavy price reflects a strong market expectation that Cleveland either wins outright or loses by one.

Bottom line

The case for Cleveland +1.5 is legitimate: Messick is capable of matching Rasmussen, the projected total is low, Cleveland bats last from the road-team perspective in the ninth, and a one-run Tampa Bay victory is a very plausible outcome.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK | Houston Astros [ML] | Good until -130.

Pitching Matchup: Ronel Blanco/Erick Fedde [Action].

Chicago couldn't hit Brown last night and I don't think that it will be able to hit Blanco this afternoon. Ronel Blanco didn't look amazing in his first start of the season. But, he did show some signs of promise. He's got excellent swing and miss stuff and should be able to get CWS chasing today. Erick Fedde has been solid. But, his overall numbers aren't anything superb. FREE PICK on HOU.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

After beginning his MLB career in Pittsburgh and pitching with the Bucs thru 2019. Jameson Taillon returns on Sunday to his old haunt at PNC Park to face the Pirates.

Taillon makes his second appearance since activation from the IL, but his Cubs (on an 18-8 run) are in the midst of a nice ascent, now on the verge of a sweep in Pittsburgh after having clinched their seventh straight series win on the road following last night’s 11-0 romp. Meanwhile, the Pirates look to be wobbling, and Sunday starter Braxton Ashcraft has been having a bad time of it lately, with an 8.24 ERA his last four starts. Play Cubs on Money Line

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

In his last outing, Suarez gave up three runs on six hits in 2 2/3 innings. The final score was 7-5, bringing the over to 5-0 in Suarez's last five starts and 7-1 in his past eight. Gausman, who has a 4.70 career ERA at Boston, has really been struggling. He's 0-5 with a 6.56 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his past seven starts. Last time out, he allowed four runs, on nine hits, in just 3 1/3 innings. Gausman's last start resulted in a 12-2 final. That brought the over to 3-0 in his past three starts and 5-1 in his past six. Let's go with the over. *good up to 8.5

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

With all due respect to Trent Dilfer, a change was desperately needed in Birmingham after a disastrous 9–21 tenure. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod after leading the final six games as the interim head coach, and we're looking for improvement from the Blazers in 2026. After spending nine years under Nick Saban at Alabama, Mortensen was held in high regard among a lot of coaching circles. In his first game with the headset after Dilfer's dismissal last year, Mortensen led the Blazers to a nationally-televised upset over then-No. 22 Memphis. Oddsmakers are only asking UAB to match last year's win total of four, and we believe that is a goal the Blazers can reach. Redshirt junior Ryder Burton is expected to get the nod at quarterback, and just like Mortensen, he made his debut against Memphis in the middle of last season. Burton went 20-of-27 for 251 yards and three touchdowns in his first start, showing that he was ready to lead the offense. Burton is already married, which is just one example of a very experienced roster that Mortensen is working with this year. According to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. UAB opens the season at Illinois, but then has extra time to prepare for win-able non-conference games against Louisiana and UL-Monroe. UAB plays FCS-level Samford after Navy, so that gives the Blazers a comfortable landing spot after a physical game against the Midshipmen. UAB will enjoy a bye at the end of October before finishing with a not-so-daunting closing stretch that includes Charlotte, Temple and a re-loading North Texas squad. UAB's program was in complete disarray last year, but the Blazers still won four games. We believe they can, at the least, match that total in 2026.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

They can't set this line high enough. The Sooners are a legitimate top 20 team. Loaded with talent and experience, they're looking to improve on last season's 10 wins. That starts with a blowout of UTEP. Now in the Mountain West, the Miners are in a transitional/rebuilding year. The Sooners won the last two meetings by a combined score of 101-20, an average of 50.5 to 10. The Sooners had an 1168 to 483 edge in yards in those games. With Oklahoma scoring early and often, this has all the makings of another 40+ point blowout. *good up to -42

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

The Browns have beaten Jacksonville three straight times. However, their last meeting was in 2024. Jacksonville was the much better team last season and is expected to be again this year. The Jaguars were 13-4 last regular season and 12-4-1 against the spread. (Remember, they were just 4-13 in 2024.) The Browns were 5-12 on the season, 8-9 ATS. The Jags were 10-2 against AFC teams. The Browns were 2-10. This year, the Jags are projected to win 8.5 to 9.5 games while the Browns are expected to win 5.5 to 6.5. The Jags have the majority of their offensive starters back. The Jags also had the best run defense in the NFL last season, allowing an average of only 85.2 rushing yards per game. They were the only team in the league to hold opponents under 90 yards on the ground. The Browns have a new coach and numerous question marks. They may improve this year but it's unlikely to happen immediately. I've got the Jags winning by double-digits.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago