Free Sports Predictions MAR 28: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Michigan possesses an explosive offense ranked 11th in the nation in PPG (87.5), 6th in FG% (51.1%), and 48th in 3PT% (36.9). The Wolverines enter off back-to-back SU and ATS wins over St. Louis (95-72) and Alabama (90-77), but teams averaging greater than 85.4 points per game coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins are just 170-236-9 ATS (41.9%), provided they have a Pace of at least 68.4. This situation has been 107-176-5 ATS (37.8%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. The Wolverines’ attack ranks 32nd in the country in Pace (71.5), which is also significant because fast-paced teams like Michigan are 126-164-8 ATS (43.4%) in the NCAA tournament, including 64-87 ATS (42.4%) since 2020. Conversely, Tennessee plays at a more methodical tempo, ranking 229th in Pace (67.2), and historically, slower-paced teams have had more success in the NCAA tournament from a point-spread perspective. Specifically, fast-paced NCAA tournament teams like Michigan are 94-132-4 ATS (41.6%) versus slow-paced teams like the Volunteers, including 47-70 ATS (40.2%) since 2019. Since 2001, #1-#3 seeds in the Elite Eight have struggled against lower-seeded opponents, going 8-21-2 ATS (27.6%). Finally, from the Round of 32 forward, Big Ten Conference schools are just 27-42 SU and 28-39-2 ATS (41.6%) since 2017. Grab the inflated number with the Tennessee Volunteers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, March 29.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Utah arrives in Phoenix off a 135-129 loss to the Nuggets, and large NBA underdogs coming off a loss are 90-139-1 ATS (39.3%) versus .712 or worse opponents, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.9 points per game. Phoenix enters this contest off a 125-123 loss to the Nuggets, which is relevant because the Jazz apply to a negative 21-56 ATS (27.3%) NBA system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests against large underdogs of +15 or greater versus opponents coming off one or more consecutive losses, falling short of market expectations by an average margin of 5.4 points per game. Utah is 38-36 ATS this season, while the Suns have posted a 43-27-3 ATS mark, which is significant because NBA home teams with a 60% or better ATS record are 445-354-8 ATS (55.7%) versus opponents with a 60% or worse ATS record, including 249-185-2 ATS (57.4%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. Phoenix falls into a very good 149-89-2 ATS (62.6%) system that invests on certain large NBA favorites with an average point spread of less than -1.91. This situation is 100-50-1 ATS (66.7%) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season, covering the spread by an average of +4.2 points per game. Finally, covering a spread this large is challenging, but it's worth mentioning that favorites with lines greater than -17 have covered the spread 49 times out of 87 games (56.3%) after the All-Star break. Lay the number with the Phoenix Suns as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, March 28.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Bryan Woo had a big year last season and I do not believe that was an outlier as that came off a 2^nd year campaign in which he had a 9-3 record and a 2.89 ERA. He faces a Guardians lineup tonight who has just 11 combined plate appearances against him and outside of Hoskins and DeLauter, have struggled to start the year. The young Joey Cantillo faces a tough task in his first start of the year to face a dangerous Seattle lineup that has left the yard 6 times in just 2 games without any hits from Julio Rodriguez. With a 5-3 record over 13 starts and 34 appearances and a 3.21 ERA, I think this task may be a bit high for him and will lay the juice with the favorite.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

I am expecting a Pitcher's duel tonight in Seattle between Joey Cantillo and Bryan Woo so being able to get get +0.5 Run 1st 5 innings at +104 with Cleveland is a +EV Play. I also believe the market has Seattle over priced in general due to the preseason hype.

TAKE CLEVELAND +0.5 RUN 1st 5 INNINGS

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

PHOENIX (-16.5) vs UTAH

Huge rest advantage here for the Suns, who have had 3 days off while Utah played Denver last night, and this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights. Look for the Suns to deliver a blowout win here.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Play OVER on home teams that are allowing 108-114 points per game after a combined score of 245 or more points, if their opponent is allowing at least 118 points per game and the total is no higher than 240.

Applies to Phoenix.

38-10 (79.2%) since the 2021 season, going OVER by an average of 7.5 points!

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Getting down on this one for the "Elite 8" action right at the open of trading. The market is just coming out as I am writing this at 1:30am ET on Saturday morning. Michigan opens as either a (-7) or (-7.5) depending on which Sportsbook.

The Wolverines looked dominate against Alabama in the second half of that game. They controlled the tempo and were stronger on the boards. Now up against Tennessee who will look to really pound the offensive glass, which is the main reason they got here grabbing second chance points against Iowa State. The matchup changes against Michigan who is a lot stronger and tougher team than Iowa St (BTW without their best player). Michigan is the play and I expect money to come in on the Wolverines so sooner rather than later would likely be the smarter entry point. For the Elite 8 free bet- Bet Michigan.

🏀 5% NCAA ELITE 8 "MAX LIMIT" CBB SUN BEST BET (45-26) $$

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago

While I I had the Golden Knights in Thursday's OT loss to the Oilers, I'm willing to give them another shot this evening. Games and points are becoming critically important and I expect to see the best of the Knights:

Coach Cassidy: "We're just trying to get our game together and get in the playoffs."

Vegas' Ivan Barbashev: "Every single game is going to be like a playoff game. We need points."

While the Caps are still mathematically alive, their playoff hopes are slim. That's due in large part to a poor road record. Look for the Knights to deliver a dagger, as they avenge last month's loss at Washington while earning an important two points. *no play if higher than -160

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago