Well the great Dallas "under" run finally snapped at ten On Sunday as the Stars would instead skate away to a 6-3 win over the Islanders. Still, nothing wrong with Jake Oettinger's numbers in goal, including a 1.43 GAA and .929 saves to date.

The hot news tonight in Big D is that it's expected to be Connor Hellebuyck's debut in the nets for New Jersey, and we can certainly say he's rested after sitting out the first month of the season while waiting for the Jets to trade him. He could be rusty, too, and New Jersey had been getting serviceable work in goal from Jake Allen and Nico Daws. Remember, Hellebuyck's numbers were very average last year in Winnipeg, with modest 2.86 GAA and .895 saves, and no shutouts for the first time in his career. Play Stars on Puck Line

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

(21) Buffalo Sabres at (22) San Jose Sharks: Total

Total Over 6.5 (-120)

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games.

Buffalo: 31 goals scored and 41 allowed in 11 games.

San Jose: 37 goals scored and 43 allowed in 12 games

Play: OVER 6.5

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Miami Florida Hurricanes (ATS) | Good until -16.5.

Miami might be on the road this weekend. But, that shouldn't deceive you from what to expect. The Hurricanes are ranked as the #1 team in the country and are averaging 44.3 points per game which is also #1 in FBS. North Carolina has maneuvered it's way to a 4-3 season (solid). But the Tar Heels just lost in OT against Syracuse at home and could be feeling the effects of that game today. Go with Miami.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Let's be honest here, the Canucks are the worst team in hockey right now. They're 0-9-1 in their last 10 and have lost six straight on the road, and tonight they walk into Anaheim. I like the Ducks to win in regulation.

The bottom line here is that Vancouver is last in the league in goals allowed (4.62 a game), shots allowed (33.5), shots taken (19.8) and penalty kill (64.4%). Four 32nd-place rankings. Anaheim doesn't need to play great tonight. It needs to show up for 60 minutes.

The Ducks haven't been great either. They're 5-6, they've been sliding, and Dostal is sitting at .880. I'm not pretending this is a juggernaut. Here's the stat that matters: Anaheim is 5-0-0 when it scores three or more goals. Vancouver gives up almost five a night. Anaheim's power play is at 22.2%, 12th in the league, and it gets a penalty kill that's barely stopping two out of three. That's not a typo. 64%.

On the other side, the Canucks are 0-7-1 when they score exactly two goals, which tells you they can't win a low-scoring game either. Merilainen has been decent at .918, but he's facing 33 shots a night with nobody helping him. Sooner or later that breaks.

I see 4-1 or 5-2 Anaheim. A team this far gone on the road doesn't hang around long enough to steal a point in overtime.

PLAY: Ducks in regulation

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

The value on the Under starts with a matchup that looks far less explosive than Delaware’s 61-38 win over Missouri State suggests. Western Kentucky enters with its best defense of the season, but its offensive limitations could make sustained scoring from both sides difficult. The Hilltoppers have allowed only 16 combined points during their current two-game winning streak, including a 16-3 victory at Sam Houston in their most recent game. The market has already moved in that direction. The total opened at 58.5, fell to 55.5, and has settled around 57.5. That move makes sense given the underlying matchup. The clearest advantage for Under bettors is Western Kentucky’s pass defense against a Delaware offense that generates most of its production through the air. The Blue Hens average 268.0 passing yards compared with only 113.7 rushing yards per game, making their offense considerably more dependent on quarterback efficiency than offensive balance.

Western Kentucky, meanwhile, allows only 190.9 passing yards per game, giving the Hilltoppers a legitimate opportunity to pull Delaware below its normal offensive baseline. Delaware converts only 33.0% of its third-down attempts, while Western Kentucky allows opponents to convert just 31.5%, ranking 23rd nationally in third-down defense. If Western Kentucky can limit early-down passing efficiency, Delaware could struggle to produce the extended possessions necessary to approach last week’s scoring output. Delaware scored 61 points against Missouri State, with quarterback Nick Minicucci throwing five touchdown passes, but projecting that production in this game ignores a significant change in matchup quality. Western Kentucky has surrendered just 13 points to Missouri State and three to Sam Houston in its past two games. The Hilltoppers also had more preparation time, last playing October 14, while Delaware played October 20. From a betting perspective, that creates an attractive sell-high situation on Delaware’s offense. The Blue Hens are coming off an extreme scoring performance but now face a rested defense whose recent form and ability to defend the pass present a substantially different challenge.

Western Kentucky averages only 21.3 points and 353.0 yards per game, ranking 113th nationally in scoring and 130th in offensive success rate at 36.6%. The Hilltoppers average 136.0 rushing yards and 217.6 passing yards per game and lack the offensive efficiency to generate points from sustained drives. Delaware is vulnerable defensively, particularly against the pass, but the Hilltoppers’ season-long production makes it difficult to assume they will fully exploit those weaknesses for four quarters. The recent scoring profile supports that argument, as four of Western Kentucky’s past five games have stayed under, including three consecutive unders entering Tuesday.

My technical database provides additional support for a lower-scoring result:

• Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points have gone 294-224 to the Under (56.8%) since 1989 in qualifying Week 5-or-later situations, generating an 8.4% ROI;

• Road teams coming off a win after allowing more than 30 points in each of their previous two games have gone 99-65 to the Under (60.4%) vs. opponents also coming off a win, producing a 15.2% ROI;

• A broader system involving road teams following a 50-plus-point home performance has produced a 545-439 Under record (55.4%) since 1989;

• Teams entering off a conference victory with fewer than 150 passing and 150 rushing yards have gone 91-66 to the Under (58.0%) since 2011;

• Road teams coming off a 60-plus-point performance with qualifying totals have gone 84-57 to the Under (59.6%) since 1995.

Collectively, these systems reinforce the same regression concept: the market can overprice offense after an extreme scoring performance, especially when the next matchup presents a different defensive challenge. Western Kentucky's extra preparation time and defensive strengths offer a favorable counter to Delaware's pass-dependent offense, while the Hilltoppers' offensive inefficiency limits their scoring ceiling. The Blue Hens' 61-point performance against Missouri State also inflates expectations of their offensive potential against a much different defensive matchup. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, October 27.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Moving on Middle Tennessee State at the open of trading for week #9 college football. This is a Wednesday kickoff and the market is mostly at (-3). Do note if you shop around you can get down on MTSU at -2.5 (-120). I will be back with analysis on why.

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Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

New Zealand Breakers 1st Quarter Over 22.5 is one of my preferred bets.

Projected New Zealand 1Q points

26

vs. betting line 22.5

+3.5-point edge

66% estimated probability

Fair odds -194

1. New Zealand's first-quarter scoring

• Season: 7/9 overs (77.8%)

• Last five: 4/5 overs (80%)

• Weighted first-quarter scoring average: 26.27

2. Adelaide's first-quarter defense

Adelaide has allowed opponents to score at least 23 first-quarter points in 6 of 9 games.

1. New Zealand ranks second in weighted first-quarter scoring among the ten NBL teams.

2. Adelaide ranks last in first-quarter points allowed.

3. New Zealand scored 23 in the teams' earlier meeting, clearing this exact line.

4. New Zealand has scored 25 or more in three consecutive first quarters.

5. Parker Jackson-Cartwright returned from injury October 25, contributing 14 points and nine assists. His playmaking improves New Zealand's offensive options.

My verdict: I like New Zealand 1Q Over 22.5, projecting 26 points with an estimated 66% chance of cashing. That estimate is judgment-based, not a calibrated probability.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

After two straight losses, the Longhorns got back on track against Ole Miss last week. They jumped out to a 24-3 halftime lead but allowed the Rebels to come all the way back to tie the game at 24-24. Unphased, the Longhorns marched down the field to reclaim the lead. In the end, they won 34-27. It may not have been pretty but I like the way they responded to Mississippi's comeback. With order restored and stepping down in class to host the Bulldogs, I expect a much bigger win for Texas this week. The Bulldogs are 0-3 their last three games and they've been outscored by a combined score of 110-38. The last time (2024) that the Longhorns hosted the Bulldogs, they won by 22 points, 35-13. Expect them to win by at least that many one again.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago