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Steve Merril
College Basketball
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Boise State will be playing with legitimate revenge at Grand Canyon on Friday night. The Broncos were absolutely embarrassed on their home court in the first meeting; an ugly 17-point (75-58) loss as 8.5-point favorites earlier this month. Boise State was in terrible form during that game as they were in the middle of a 1-5 SU slide. Things are much different now for the rematch as the Broncos come into this game on a 4-0 SU/ATS winning streak. Grand Canyon is returning home off a loss, and the Antelopes are just 5-3 SU over their last 8 games. Take the points with the motivated road underdog in this game on Friday night.
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Steve Merril NBA Special | +214.61 Units Since 2021!
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Steve Merril is delivering another profitable NBA season, posting +49.28 units with a 60.6% winning percentage, a 17.4% ROI, and a 43-28-1 record. His consistency continues to show in a season where efficiency has mattered more than volume.What truly separates Steve is his long-term NBA track record. Since the 2021 season, he has produced +214.61 u ...
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Ross Benjamin
College Basketball
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Last 233 CBB Totals +47.11 Units: $25.00
Friday CBB Solid Gold TotalDayton vs. St. Louis 8:00 ET (CBS Sports Network)Ross has made a net profit of 170.91 units of net profit on his premium picks in all sports since 5/13/2025."The Boss" has also made a net profit of +60.99 units on his last 190 premium pick totals.All records are verified by Wager Talk Media.
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Drew Martin
College Basketball
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4-0 (100%) | 14-4 (78%) Friday Run (+40% PROFIT).
92-64 (59%) Overall for (+102% PROFIT) last 156 client picks.
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CBB FRIDAY MONEY BEST BET 4-0 & 14-4 Run (+40% PROFIT) : $15.00
MONEY! 4-0 (100%) as part of a 14-4 (78%) Friday Run (+40% PROFIT). Drew has DOMINATED the smaller conference college basketball slate. NEXT ONE HERE! Longterm, 91-64 (59%) Overall for (+98% PROFIT) last 155 client picks. TAKE ADVANTAGE= ONLY $15. This is a premium client CBB BEST BET package tipping off Friday jam packed with detailed written anal ...
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Tokyo Brandon
Japan B League
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This is your chance to follow Tokyo Brandon closely and get all of his action for seven straight days at a steep discount..
These long-term numbers say it all:
#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon
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#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon
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This is a 2% client play
Kobe @ Iwate — my baseline projection
Projected score: Kobe 82 – Iwate 70 (Total 152)
Model inputs (team profiles): Kobe 86.5 PPG / 71.8 allowed vs Iwate 70.3 PPG / 75.1 allowed.
Key player matchups
Matchup | Edge | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
Yoeli Childs (Kobe) vs Clay Mounce (Iwate) | Slight Kobe | Childs is a high-usage interior hub (19.8 PTS, 11.2 REB) vs Mounce as Iwate’s #1 scorer (21.8 PTS, 7.5 REB, 3.2 AST) . If Kobe wins the glass + paint, Iwate’s offense can stall. |
Rawle Alkins (Kobe) vs Iwate wings (Gurley/Hillsman types) | Kobe | Alkins adds a second creator/scorer (12.7 PTS, 6.2 REB, 3.8 AST) while Gurley is more of a complementary scorer (11.0 PTS, 6.4 REB) . Kobe has more “shot makers.” |
Shuto Terazono (Kobe PG) vs Sogo Yamagiwa (Iwate PG) | Even-ish | Terazono (14.8 PTS, 5.6 AST) vs Yamagiwa (12.1 PTS, 5.7 AST) . This is the one lane where Iwate can keep pace (creation/tempo). |
Isaac Butts (Kobe C) vs Iwate interior | Kobe | Butts’ rebounding is a separator (11.3 REB) . Kobe’s team rebound rate is also higher (44.2 RPG vs 35.1) → extra possessions, fewer Iwate second-chance points. |
Why I am betting Kobe -9
Form + scoring margin profile favors Kobe. In the last 5 shown, Kobe went 4-1 and scored 97/101/89/76/93 — they can separate late.
Iwate’s offense is low baseline. Season profile is 70.3 PPG ; if they land in the mid/upper 60s, Kobe only needs low 80s to cover.
H2H supports Kobe clearing this range. Recent meetings include 91–81 and 80–68 (margins +10, +12) — both cover -9.
Rebounding gap = possession edge. Team RPG gap (Kobe 44.2 vs Iwate 35.1) is exactly the kind of thing that turns a 6–8 point game into 10–14.
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College Hoops 4% BEST BET: Top Capper 3 of 5 Years | +Profit 5/6 Years | #1 L3 Days & L7 Days: $25.00
How good is Tokyo Brandon? Check the capper rankings on the right of this website.Tokyo Brandon is #1 among all 33 capper at WagerTalk in profit the last 3 days and the last 7 days. When you’re buying a play, you’re not buying hype—you’re buying results. Tokyo Brandon has been WagerTalk’s #1 Profit Machine, and the numbers back it up:#4 A ...
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50% OFF POWER 4 PLAY - Japanese Hoops from DK | Top Profit Capper 3/5 Years | #1 Last 3 Days
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Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s high-confidence Japanese Basketball 4 pick package – on sale for 50% OFF from DraftKings! Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)Tokyo Br ...
Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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Take the New York Knicks (#506)
Double Gamer video below: Knicks - Blazers AND Raptors - Magic.
The Knicks hit their low point last week in a home blowout vs Dallas last week; a game where the Knicks trailed by 30 before halftime. At the time of that loss, the Mike Brown's squad was enduring a 2-9 SU/3-8 ATS stretch that lingered through Jalen Brunson’s return from injury. After the game, Brunson called a ‘players only’ meeting. The quotes spoke of urgency. Brunson: “As a team we know what we have to do. It's either we do it, we care enough to do it, or we don't.” Josh Hart: “We all need to do some soul-searching. Right now we're playing embarrassing basketball." Since that meeting, the Knicks are 4-0 SU/4-0 ATS, an emerging streak worth riding again tonight! Take the Knicks
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5% Big Ticket $$! 8-0 (100%) Heater! 37-18 (67%) 5%'s: $35.00
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Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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Andy Lang
Lacrosse
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This is a difficult spot for Syracuse to separate, especially given the context surrounding this matchup. It is the first meeting between these programs, and Syracuse will be playing without Trey Deere, their top attackman, who is out for the season. That is a significant loss to an offense now being asked to generate margin against a ranked opponent without its primary playmaker.
Boston consistently keeps games tight regardless of competition. Dating back to 2024, the Terriers have covered this number in 30 of their last 33 games catching six goals, a reflection of their ability to control tempo and avoid extended scoring runs against them. This also marks the first time since 2021 that Syracuse has opened a season against a ranked opponent, adding another layer of uncertainty in their first live action without Deere. While Syracuse deserves to be favored at home, expecting a comfortable margin against a disciplined Boston team in this setup overstates the gap between these sides.
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4% NBA Best Bet… Bonus +260 Prop Included : $25.00
2 Straight 4% NBA Winners | 15-10 NBA Run We’re stepping back in with another 4% NBA Best Bet after cashing two straight 4% plays, pushing the overall NBA run to 15-10. This release also includes a BONUS +260 prop, a calculated add-on with real upside, not a throw-in. The main play stands out clearly from the board, and the bonus gives you extra ...
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4% UFC 325 + 4% Boxing BEST BETS!!! : $25.00
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Bryan Power
German Bundesliga
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2% Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): Suffice to say, behind runaway league leaders Bayern Munich, there are five clearly defined contenders in the race for Europe in the Bundesliga this season. Bayer Leverkusen is among those, but they currently sit sixth in the table, four points off the top four. The upcoming schedule is conducive to making a run up the table, but I also like Leverkusen to pick up all three points this weekend at Frankfurt, a side that is struggling mightily right now and just sacked the manager. The Eagles are currently eighth in the Bundesliga, just two spots and five points back of Leverkusen. But based on underlying numbers, that gap should probably be even wider.
Both of these teams just concluded the League Phase over in the Champions League midweek. Leverkusen were successful, easily defeating Villarreal 3-0, and they’ll be moving on to the knockout stage of that competition (as a seeded team). Meanwhile, Frankfurt were beaten 2-0 by Spurs on Wednesday and finished bottom four in the League Phase, meaning they’re now out of that competition. In addition to losing six of their eight UCL matches during the League Phase, the Eagles are now winless in their last seven matches overall - conceding at least two goals in every match! They are tied with bottom of the table Heidenheim for the most goals conceded this season in the German top flight.
Leverkusen should take full advantage of that, given they are third in the league in xG. I know the final score last week against Werder Bremen was only 1-0, but Leverkusen created 2.5 xG and had four big scoring chances, so they probably should have won by a wider margin. They didn’t allow Bremen a single big scoring chance in the clean sheet victory. Leverkusen have owned this particular fixture, beating Frankfurt six straight times (including 3-1 earlier this season). This time the Eagles are particularly wounded (quite literally w/ several players on the sidelines) and are playing for an interim manager. 2% Bayer Leverkusen (Play to -110)
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*2 FOR 1* NBA FRIDAY ~ INCREDIBLE 29-9 RUN (76%!): $29.00
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Las Vegas Cris
NHL Hockey
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CBJ/CHI over 6 (-110) CZR
Tough loss last night on our 5% wager, and it’s a good reminder of why bankroll management always matters. Many would not have reduced exposure in that spot, but those who followed our approach likely noticed we structured the play to risk 5% rather than a straight 5% moneyline wager, saving more than 1.5% in exposure. More importantly, regular clients with full access still finished the night profitable, as we went 4–2 overall for +1.12 units, a 66.7% win rate (4-2-0), and a 7.5% ROI. While that may not fully ease the sting for one-off buyers, it underscores what we consistently emphasize: long-term bankroll growth. That focus is reflected not only in our #1 ranking over the last 30 days, but also in our continued discussion of L60 results. Consistency is everything in this business.
Today’s play is a small wager on the over in the lone game on the ice in Chicago. The Blackhawks are likely dealing with tired legs, which often shows up on the back end, where defensive breakdowns tend to lead to goals. Columbus has been scoring at a strong rate as well. The reason this stays below the 2–3% range is Chicago’s elite penalty kill, which gives them the ability to keep opponents off the scoreboard at times.
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Is Las Vegas Cris the most successful NFL bettor on the planet? His record says yes—and here are just a few reasons you should be betting with LVC this football season:Why LVC is the Gold Standard in NFL Betting:#1 All-Time NFL Profit at +337.93 units#1 All-Time NFL ROI at 7.3%#1 All-Time NFL Spread selections#1 All-Time NFL Teasers#1 All-Time NF ...
Weekend Warrior Pass – All Sports. All Plays. ONLY $49!
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Carmine Bianco
NHL Hockey
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NHL - Columbus Blue Jackets at Chicago Blackhawks
Quick Analysis: Blue Jackets are 7-1 since the coaching change and get the Blackhawks on the 2nd of a back to back after a 6-2 loss in Pittsburgh for their 4th straight loss.
The play is Columbus Blue Jackets -150
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SATURDAY SOCCER MULTI-PACK Soccer action is up for Saturday with a EURO MULTI-PACK. It's a big weekend of action and a multi-pack of plays available for clients. Get this package now for one great price and as always good luck with your wagers guys.
SATURDAY NHL MULTI-PACK INCLUDING A BEST BET : $29.00
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Adam Trigger
College Basketball
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Have not made this a client play yet but this was one that came up on Full Court Press and I used for the show parlay.
I do lean Princeton here and see value in +5.5.
I have a 5% MAX up for tonight and multiple client plays locked in on my page.
If I do add this for clients I will come back and note that here.
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5% CBB MAX BET | PERFECT 3-0 (100%) +29.93 UNITS!: $35.00
****GOING FOR FOUR STRAIGHT CBB WINNERS*****Adam continues his MONSTER CBB MONTH with UC Irvine getting it done in OT last night!Adam is +29.93 UNITS (#2 at WagerTalk) in January and has hit three in a row!ADAM GOES FOR 4 STRAIGHT WINS WITH ANOTHER 5% MAX BET ON FRIDAY NIGHT!
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Bryan Power
NBA Basketball
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The Wizards, who will be going for their first three-game SU win streak of the season here, scored 109 pts last night on Milwaukee despite an overall FG% of 40% (including just 8 of 35 from three).
Expect the team to improve upon those paltry numbers tonight because they are facing the Lakers, who STINK defensively. On Wednesday, I gave out a free play on the Cavs Team Total Over 119.5. They dropped 129 on the Lakers. We don't need nearly that many points tonight.
The Lakers have a bottom six defensive rating and give up 116.5 PPG for the season.
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*2 FOR 1* NBA FRIDAY ~ INCREDIBLE 29-9 RUN (76%!): $29.00
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angles:
1) Play UNDER where the total is between 211.5 and 232, and one team is off a double-digit win as an underdog and facing an opponent off two consecutive double-digit home wins.
Applies to Phoenix.
21-3 (87.5%) since the 2003 season, staying UNDER by an average of 9.5 points!
2) Play UNDER on teams coming off a win by at least 30 points if their opponent led its last game by at least 15 points at the half.
Applies to Cleveland.
71-27-1 (72.4%) since the 1996 season, staying UNDER by an average of 5.6 points.
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83% ANGLE | CBB TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant is the #1 ALL-TIME leader in college basketball totals profit at WagerTalk, up a massive +235 units, and DB has a big College Basketball Top Total ready to cash tonight.This big play is backed by a situational angle that has produced a money-making 83% winners (29 wins, only 6 losses) since the 2012 season, winning by a rock-solid ave ...
80% ANGLES | 4% NBA TOP SIDE: $25.00
#1 in NBA profit this season: +58.39 units#1 in NBA profit last season: +84 uniitsThis NBA Top Side play is backed by two (2) situational angles that have cashed a combined 80.4% winners (37 wins, only 9 losses)Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
Dwayne Bryant NBA Special | +135.39 Units L2 Years!
Was $499.00 Now $399.00
Dwayne Bryant is delivering another strong NBA season, posting +51.39 units with a 60.7% winning percentage, a 17.5% ROI, and a 51-33-0 record. His biggest opinions have been flawless, going 2-0 on 5% Best Bets for +10 units and a 100% ROI.This success isn’t new. During the 2024 NBA season, Dwayne finished with +84 units, a 59.3% win rate, and a ...
Dwayne Bryant
College Basketball
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My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom, historical data from similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value I perceive, and how confident I am in the play.
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83% ANGLE | CBB TOP TOTAL: $25.00
Dwayne Bryant is the #1 ALL-TIME leader in college basketball totals profit at WagerTalk, up a massive +235 units, and DB has a big College Basketball Top Total ready to cash tonight.This big play is backed by a situational angle that has produced a money-making 83% winners (29 wins, only 6 losses) since the 2012 season, winning by a rock-solid ave ...
80% ANGLES | 4% NBA TOP SIDE: $25.00
#1 in NBA profit this season: +58.39 units#1 in NBA profit last season: +84 uniitsThis NBA Top Side play is backed by two (2) situational angles that have cashed a combined 80.4% winners (37 wins, only 9 losses)Details INSIDE. Don't miss it!
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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2% Take Toronto (#501)
Orlando had one good stretch this season, when the Magic went 12-4 SU over a 16 game span. That stretch ended in the first week of December; the mediocre Magic have gone 11-14 SU since. But the real kicker is how bad the Magic have been coming off a win, like the victory they enjoyed against Miami on Wednesday, snapping a four game skid. Orlando is just 1-9 SU/1-9 ATS off a victory; that lone win coming in Berlin against the slumping Grizzlies. Plain and simple – Orlando has a consistent track record in recent weeks and months of failure in exactly the same role they’re in tonight.
Meanwhile the Raptors are coming off a dismal second half, turning a four point lead at the break into an ugly blowout loss to the Knicks on Wednesday Night. No team in the Eastern Conference has more road wins than the Raptors 16 victories on the highway this season. Since the week before Christmas, Toronto is 6-1 SU/6-1 ATS off a loss, a team that has responded very favorably to adversity in recent weeks. And it’s surely worth noting that the Raptors have owned this series of late: 4-0 SU/ATS in the last four meetings. Live dog here! Take the Raptors
Line Parameter: 2% at +1 or higher, 1.5% at pk or 1% if Toronto becomes the favorite
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7 Days of All Access for the Price of 3!
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Ralph Michaels
College Basketball
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(861) Harvard at (862) Brown: Team Total
Brown Total Under 65.5 (-110)
Brown’s offense is ranked #340 with a tempo rank of #252.
They are #307 in 2-pt off, #301 in 3-pt off , #277 on off TO’s and #211 FT shooting
Brown is 7-20 O/U off an Under if threi opp made 26 FG's or less.
Harvard is #351 in tempo and their D has a temp of #359 as their opponents avg 18.7 sec/shot.
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Kyle Anthony
Mixed Martial Arts
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This is going to be a wrestle heavy matchup and believe Torrez Finny has multiple advantages. One of the biggest advantages will be physicality. The guy is an absolute ball of muscle, built like a fridge full of dumbbells. He doesn't have a neck, it's like his shoulders just evolved into a head. Time after time we're seeing him lean on his strength bully opponents down and securing top position. Over his last 4 fights, including 2 appearances on Dana White's Contender Series, Finny landed 26 takedowns with relentless wrestling pressure. He's successfully smothered his opponents dictating the fight winning positionally banking rounds. On Saturday night Finny will be the far more explosive fighter and the overall better athlete. While Malkoun has 2 big red flags coming into this fight. We all know ring dust is real, the longer you're inactive the less shaper you'll be upon your return. At this point, Jacob hasn't fought in nearly 2 years. That's a lengthy layoff and no doubt will be a watered down version of himself. Now the reason he's been out is due to an injury he suffered during training awhile back. Had a serious back injury which required surgery and a ton of recovery time. There was a point the doctors informed him he'd struggle walking again and even contemplated retirement at just 30 years old. Over those 2 years Malkoun was able to heal but I don't expect him to be in peak physical condition. For wrestlers there's a lot of pressure on your back while grappling and Finny is going to capitalize in those situations. Malkoun was already the less explosive fighter who's slower on the feet and this will only assist Finny in his gameplan. Striking wise, I'd give the advantage to Torrez as well. Can get wild at times but will use big overhands to crash the pocket to attempt a takedown. He's the harder hitter between the two and will lean on his strength in the clinch or up against the fence. Believe Finny will find control time, win positionally and bank rounds on the judges scorecards. Plus, all the finishing equity is on Finny landing a big shot on the feet. Give me Torrez Finny with multiple advantages and at plus money!
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The UFC Capping King is the #1 Profit Earner in ALL SPORTS in 2024!! Kyle Anthony has locked in a STRONG 5% wager cashing at a 67% win rate for this Saturday's UFC event! Grab this pack NOW and cash in with KA!!~ Currently 5 PLAYS in pack ~
Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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Zion Williamson DOUBLE-DOUBLE (+260)
Rebounding responsibility has clearly shifted. Over the last three games, Zion and Bey have been the primary rebounders instead of center Derik Queen. Zion has logged 45 rebound chances in that span, well above his season average. Scoring is never the concern — he’s reached 10+ points in 31 of 33 games — and he had 11 rebounds vs Memphis a week ago. The Grizzlies rank 22nd in rebounding, allowing 45+ per game. The +260 price is too good to pass up here.
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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Cade Cunningham and the Pistons play the second leg of a back-to-back in San Francisco tonight taking on the Warriors. The Pistons will look to bounce back from a 114-96 loss in Phoenix with Cunningham scoring 26 points on a somewhat dismal 8-22 shooting. We’re going to take Cunningham to go over 22.5 points tonight averaging 25.5 ppg across his last three games. This will be the third instance in the last two months Cunningham has played on a second leg of a back-to-back and he has averaged 25 ppg in the second leg of those three instances. This will be the first head-to-head meeting between these two this season with Cunningham averaging 31.5 ppg in the two games against the Warriors last season. It’s worth noting that January has been the worst month for Cunningham statistically but he’s not shy about letting it fly averaging 17.5 shot attempts and seven free throws per game. The Warriors have been solid on defense this season but they run at a top ten pace which is faster than the Pistons so it should equate to more possessions for Detroit who rank top five in fast break points per game on the year. The Pistons point guard has also been solid off a loss as of late averaging 27 ppg when off a loss in his last six games. Take Cunningham to be the focal point of the Pistons offense going over 22.5 points at Golden Sate tonight.
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3-F0R-1 SB SWEEPER! *55-30 (+85) = #1 FOOTBALL RECORD!*
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THE GOLDSHEET NBA STAT SHEET FOR FRIDAY, JANUARY 30!Overall records and records for the last two weeks. Both overall as well as Home/Away splits!Including: SU, ATS. O/U, Points For & Against, plus the Average Line and Total!
Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(517) Los Angeles Clippers at (518) Denver Nuggets: Spread
Los Angeles Clippers -6.0 (-112)
Historical Trends:
Away Favorites with Rest: Away favorites with at least 2 days of rest against an unrested foe have a strong record of 84-57-2 (60%). This indicates a favorable trend for teams in the Clippers' position.
Specific Away Favorite Stat: When the away favorite has just come off a road game and faces a team returning home from a game, they perform even better with a record of 57-26-1 (69%).
Los Angeles Clippers Performance:
Recent Form: The Clippers are currently performing well, boasting a 9-1 straight up record and 8-2 ATS since January 9. Their only loss during this stretch came when facing a rested opponent with no rest themselves.
Denver Nuggets Performance:
Offensive Struggles: The Nuggets have been struggling offensively, shooting only 44.5% in their last 6 games. This could hinder their ability to score effectively against a competitive Clippers defense.
Home Performance against Losing Teams: Excluding two games as double-digit favorites, the Nuggets hold a record of 2-7 ATS at home against teams with a losing record.
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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Grand Canyon has been playing some really good basketball, entering Friday winners of 5 of 7 both SU and ATS. Their last loss came in overtime on the road in Reno, a bad beat of sorts as they lost by 6 in overtime as a 3.5 point dog. The Antelopes rank 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency and return home to take on Boise State, a team that’s rallied off a few wins, but they’ve come against lower level competition. These teams met in Boise back on January 7th, a game the Antelopes won 75-58. Expect another victory here with the added home court advantage as they sweep the season series. Take Grand Canyon ML.
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Teddy Covers
NFL Football
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0.5% Take Steph Diggs UNDER receiving yards
Diggs doesn't have a catch longer than 14 yards in the playoffs. He's gained fewer than 40 receiving yards 11 times this season. He's largely a 'possession' receiver in New England's offense, and this is most assuredly a 'step-up-in-class' defense that Diggs will be facing. Also look at Diggs First Reception of the Game UNDER and/or Diggs Longest Reception of the Game UNDER.
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Ralph Michaels
NFL Football
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(109) Seattle Seahawks at (110) New England Patriots: 1Q Moneyline
2% First Quarter Seattle Seahawks -150
While the line is only -0.5 prefer to lay the juice as I my thought is that if Seattle wins the toss they will defer putting the youngest ever QB to start a SuperBowl on the field.
Seattle has not only covered 5 straight 1Q’s but they covered them by 33 points and with the ML they are 8-1-4 (89%)
The Seahawks are #1 in 1Q scoring and #2 in 1Q defense
The Patriots not only have played the NFL weakest schedule they have played the weakest schedule of any SB team the L20+ years.
If you look at NE’s L6 road games they are 1-4-1 on the ML with the win ay the Jets as a 2 TD Fav.
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Jeff Michaels
NFL Football
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(109) Seattle Seahawks at (110) New England Patriots
2% Shortest touchdown UNDER 1.5 yards.
Value Play on One-Yard Touchdowns:
One-yard touchdowns can often have a lower public profile, making them a value play, especially in high-stakes games like the Super Bowl where the focus can be on bigger plays.
The potential scenario of pass interference in the end zone resulting in a one-yard line situation can significantly increase the chances of a one-yard touchdown.
Historical Trends:
Super Bowl Stats: You noted that there have been one-yard touchdowns in 5 of the last 6, and 8 of the last 10 Super Bowls. This shows a strong historical trend, which suggests that this is a recurring situation in the context of big games.
Impact of Game Pressure:
The two weeks off leading up to the Super Bowl can add pressure on teams, which might lead to mistakes, including penalties in the red zone like pass interference. This can further increase the likelihood of opportunities for one-yard touchdowns.
The neutral crowd also plays a role, as players might behave differently without the typical home-field advantage, which can result in more nerves and potentially more fouls.
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Don Buster
NFL Football
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We play Hunter Henry on his receiving yards prop as Hunter usually has a line in the low to mid 40's. In the his last two playoff games for the Patriots, Hunter was no where to be found. He had a couple of drops early in those games but hardly any targets. In the last game the snow in Denver eliminated any chance that he would hit his number. We believe with an extra week to prepare, the Patriots will make him a big part of their gameplan as they have all season. Before those last two outliers Hunter went OVER this number in 6 of 8 games. It is going to be tough for NE to run here so the passing game with Hunter involved will be the way they go.
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Will Rogers
NFL Football
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In the Patriots' 10-7 AFC Championship victory over the Broncos, Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 25 times for 71 yards. He was also targeted twice in the passing attack. While his stats weren't eye-popping, he shouldered a massive workload and far outpaced TreVeyon Henderson, who managed just three touches total. Stevenson is expected to remain the lead back for New England in the Super Bowl.
After scoring nine touchdowns during the regular season, Stevenson stands a solid chance of reaching the end zone against the Seahawks. Playing him to get the last one of the game pays out at nearly 10-1.
A long-shot? Absolutely. But one that's entirely possible. Play Rhamondre Stevenson: Last Touchdown Scorer
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Ben Burns
NFL Football
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As I post this, Kenneth Walker is -190 on the "anytime touchdown scorer" option and +380 on the "first player to score a touchdown" prop. Of course, the former has the greater likelihood of cashing. However, the latter may offer the better value. If the Hawks score the first TD, Walker has a great shot of being the player that gets it. He did so against the Rams. If looking for a big underdog with a solid shot, this one fits the bill.
Last year's defending football champion Ben Burns has the #1 NFL record again this season ... he's a perfect 8-0 since Christmas.
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