Free Sports Predictions NOV 6: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Iowa State travels to Waco after a remarkable 51-49 victory over Oklahoma State, but that 100-point shootout creates a misleading perception of the Cyclones’ offensive ceiling. Underlying efficiency metrics point to a substantially different environment against Baylor, whose defense has been one of the strongest components of its statistical profile. The Bears allow only a 34.2% offensive success rate, ranking 11th nationally, and just 2.29 points per scoring opportunity, fifth nationally. Those metrics matter especially for an Under because they show Baylor has been effective not only at preventing sustained drives, but also at limiting touchdowns once opponents reach scoring territory.

The matchup becomes even more difficult for Iowa State through the air. Baylor allows only a 35.9% passing success rate, 6.3 yards per attempt, and negative-0.07 passing points per play. The Bears have also generated 34 sacks and forced 15 turnovers while surrendering only seven passing touchdowns. That profile presents a significant challenge for an Iowa State offense that ranks 89th nationally in passing success rate, 109th in passing yards, and 111th in overall offensive success rate at 39.0%. The Cyclones may have produced 51 points last week, but their season-long efficiency suggests that performance was well above their offensive baseline. Baylor’s pass rush is particularly relevant because pressure can create drive-killing plays that suppress scoring without necessarily generating turnovers. Sacks increase the likelihood of obvious passing situations, punts, and longer field-goal attempts, while quarterback pressure makes it harder for Iowa State to consistently generate the explosive completions needed to overcome poor down-to-down efficiency. Against a defense that can win early downs and create negative plays, the Cyclones should find it much harder to replicate last week’s scoring pace.

The rushing matchup provides little relief. Baylor is allowing only a 32.0% rushing success rate, ranking seventh nationally, with a negative-0.13 rushing PPA. Iowa State enters with just a 38.7% rushing success rate, meaning the Cyclones may struggle to lean on the ground game to stay ahead of the chains and neutralize Baylor’s pass rush. If Iowa State cannot consistently run efficiently on early downs, the offense becomes increasingly dependent on converting obvious passing situations against the strongest area of Baylor’s defense. Tempo should also help the Under. Iowa State operates at approximately 29.3 seconds per play, giving the Cyclones one of the more deliberate offensive profiles in the matchup. That approach reduces possession volume and becomes especially important if Baylor’s defense consistently forces Iowa State into longer drives.

Baylor’s faster pace of approximately 22.6 seconds per play represents the primary concern, but pace alone does not guarantee points. The Bears rank only 114th nationally in offensive success rate at 38.7%, including a 40.1% rushing success rate that ranks 104th. Baylor is also generating a relatively modest 3.39 points per scoring opportunity. Iowa State’s defense has vulnerabilities, but Baylor has not shown the down-to-down offensive efficiency needed to consistently turn additional possessions into touchdowns. That distinction is critical to the handicap. The Under does not require Iowa State’s defense to dominate. It requires the Cyclones to provide enough resistance against an inconsistent Baylor offense while the Bears’ defense pulls Iowa State significantly below last week’s extraordinary scoring output. With Baylor able to control the matchup defensively, the Bears have little reason to turn this game into a high-variance shootout if they establish an advantage.

My technical database further supports that regression thesis. Conference road teams coming off a home game in which they scored at least 50 points, beginning with their fifth game of the season and playing with fewer than 10 days of rest, have produced a 296-228 Under record (56.5%) since 1989, generating +45.2 units and a 7.8% ROI. A broader version involving road teams following 50-plus-point home performances has gone 547-443 to the Under (55.3%), producing +59.7 units and a 5.5% ROI. Conference games involving a team coming off a contest in which it scored at least 30 points after its opponent scored more than 48 have gone 316-222 to the Under (58.7%), generating +71.8 units and a 12.1% ROI. These systems reinforce an important concept: extreme scoring performances can inflate expectations for the following game, particularly when the next opponent presents a materially stronger defensive challenge.

Baylor can disrupt the pass, win early downs, limit scoring opportunities, and force an inefficient Iowa State offense to sustain drives rather than relying on last week’s unusually productive scoring environment. Take the Under as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 7.

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CBJ @ BUF — Buffalo 4, Columbus 3

• Both teams have vulnerable penalty kills. Buffalo is killing just 69.8% of penalties and Columbus 72.5%. Even without elite power-play conversion, those weaknesses can generate extra scoring opportunities.

• Buffalo's projected starting goalie is a concern. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has a .874 save percentage and 3.40 GAA this season. His career numbers against Columbus are also poor: 3–3 with a .852 save percentage in six appearances.

• Columbus has offensive upside despite a low season average. The Blue Jackets recently beat Colorado 7–2, although their overall offense remains inconsistent.

• Buffalo's recent games show scoring volatility. Its last five completed results entering Thursday included a 7–6 win over Anaheim and a 5–0? No—the shutout was a 2–0 win over San Jose. This is precisely why the individual goalies and scoring distribution matter more than a simple streak.

• Columbus is in a difficult schedule spot. The Blue Jackets play Dallas on Thursday, then travel approximately 294 miles to Buffalo for Friday's game. Buffalo has Thursday off. Fatigue could increase defensive errors and penalties, although it could also suppress Columbus's offense.

• Goalie head-to-head introduces uncertainty. If Jet Greaves starts for Columbus, his five career games against Buffalo include a 4–1 record and .919 save percentage. If Colten Ellis starts for Buffalo instead of Luukkonen, remember Ellis stopped all 37 shots against Columbus in April. Neither small sample guarantees another similar performance.

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Rankings of 26

Lower rank is better.

Toyama vs. Nagoya Diamond Dolphins

Strongest favorite: Nagoya

• Nagoya is 10–0 and has won its last five by an average of 23.4 points.

• Its recent opponents include Tokyo Sunrockers, Utsunomiya, Shinshu and Shiga twice. The victory over Tokyo Sunrockers is particularly meaningful.

• Toyama has won four of its last five but is only 2–4 at home.

• Toyama's latest two wins came against Chiba Jets, currently near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

• Nagoya has the league's strongest two-point shooting percentage and one of its best defensive records.

• Nagoya's defense presents a difficult matchup for Toyama's relatively inefficient shooting.

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The Devils have seen 10 of their last 11 games finish over the total, including each of their past five. The Isles have seen four of their last five games finish above the number. Two of the past three h2h meetings have also gone over the total. The Isles scored 18 goals themselves in those three games. They should combine with the Devils for at least six on Saturday

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One of the top teams in Conference USA hosting one of the worst teams in all of FBS college football has us laying the wood with Jacksonville State.

Jax State is a perfect (4-0) straight up and against the spread at home. Sam Houston State is a horrendous (0-7) on the season vs FBS competition. They have not scored a touchdown in 3 of their last 4 games. This one just missed the Saturday client card. The free pick is on Jacksonville State to win big.

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Georgia Southern is 7-1 ATS this season. The only spread loss was by a half-point as a road underdog. At home? 4-0 ATS.

Marshall is in one of my favorite "fade" spots. The Herd beat Old Dominion by 13 points last weekend despite being outgained by 71 total yards and being -0.8 in yards-per-play margin. Marshall benefited from a +3 turnover margin. I love fading teams coming off misleading wins like that one.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE (H/T StatSharp):

Play ON home teams that have played at least 7 games and are averaging 5.6-6.2 yards per play if they outgained their last two opponents by at least 125 total yards, and their opponent is allowing at least 6.2 yards per play. Applies to Georgia Southern. 25-4 ATS (86%) since the 1992 season, covering the spread by an average of 12.2 points!

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Take Atlanta – Cincinnati OVER (#451-452)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below = ‘Free Play’ bets for the Bengals – Falcons from Madrid and the Broncos – Panthers from North Carolina, clipped from Friday's 'Wagertalk Today'.  Here’s a brief write-up for Cinci- Atlanta.

Joe Burrow is on fire right now; Cinci’s receiving corps healthy and making big plays every week.  Atlanta just suffered through a monsoon in Tampa last week, but prior to that debacle the Falcons had averaged 32 points a game since Michael Penix took over behind center after missing the first few games.  Don’t expect a quagmire in Spain, but do expect two offenses that are better than the two defenses facing them.  Expect touchdowns in bunches. Take the OVER.

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(325) 3% TCU +7

Line Good to 6.5 at 6 it’s a 2% Play

Arizona finds itself in two difficult scheduling situations, and both strengthen the case for TCU as a live underdog.

First, the Wildcats are coming off a high-profile loss to Texas Tech. One angle I’ve watched closely this season is the potential letdown after a team loses a marquee matchup. Arizona now has to regroup emotionally and prepare for a TCU team capable of making this a difficult game.

Second, this is a classic sandwich spot. With Texas Tech in the rearview mirror and No. 3 Utah on deck next week, Arizona has a challenging task: putting the disappointment behind it without looking ahead to another major showdown. That doesn’t guarantee a flat performance, but it adds to the appeal of taking the points as we have seen so many teams have bad games after a high profile loss.

Arizona certainly has the offensive firepower to command attention. The Wildcats rank sixth nationally in passing offense at 324 yards per game and 17th in total offense at 455 yards per game, while averaging 34.9 points. However, those numbers meet a significant test against TCU.

The Horned Frogs allow just 14.1 points per game, eighth-best in the FBS, and rank among the nation’s better defenses on third down. Their ability to limit scoring and get off the field gives them a path to keeping this game competitive, even against Arizona’s explosive passing attack.

My preference in this type of matchup is to take the points with the better defense. TCU’s defensive strength is the foundation of the play, while Arizona’s potential post-loss letdown and look-ahead spot provide additional support. I expect the Horned Frogs to make Arizona work for its scoring opportunities and stay firmly in this game.

TAKE TCU as my 3% CFB PLAY

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Good to -110

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I really like Domantas Sabonis to go OVER 13.5 points against San Antonio. This is one of those plays where the history against a particular opponent really catches my attention. Sabonis has consistently found ways to score against the Spurs, even with Victor Wembanyama protecting the paint, and we're getting a number that he's had no problem clearing in this matchup.

Sabonis has gone OVER 13.5 points in eight consecutive games against San Antonio, including every matchup against Wembanyama. That's an incredible streak, especially considering the defensive presence Wembanyama brings to the floor. Some players struggle against his size and shot-blocking ability, but Sabonis has repeatedly demonstrated that he can still produce offensively against this defense.

We don't have to look very far back to find another example. Sabonis scored 20 points against the Spurs earlier this season, comfortably clearing this number. That performance is particularly encouraging because it shows his success against San Antonio isn't just something from previous seasons. He's already faced this matchup this year and delivered the kind of scoring production we're looking for.

Now, I understand that Sabonis has seen his shot attempts decrease over the last few games, and that's probably the biggest concern with this play. But I think the matchup against San Antonio provides a good reason to expect more offensive involvement. In their earlier meeting this season, Sabonis attempted 16 field goals and made 10 of them. That's outstanding efficiency and significantly more offensive opportunity than he's been getting recently.

That 10-for-16 performance is exactly what stands out to me. Sabonis didn't need to rely on a huge number of free throws or an unusually high shooting volume to score 20 points. He was getting quality opportunities and converting them. If he gets anything close to that level of involvement again, clearing 13.5 points should be very manageable.

The bottom line is that Sabonis has cleared this number in eight straight meetings with San Antonio, has consistently produced against Wembanyama, and already scored 20 points on 10-for-16 shooting against the Spurs this season. His recent decline in shot attempts is worth considering, but I trust the matchup history and the offensive opportunities he's already demonstrated against this opponent.

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Hopefully some of you grabbed the 28.5 that was available when I discussed this game on Full Court Press

I wanted to make sure Stetson had everyone available (since this is their third game this week) and it appears the Hatters will be full strength here.

I make this West Virginia -23.5 so 28 is still good here. Did a full breakdown of this game this morning on Full Court Press. I think Stetson keeps the final margin here closer to 20 than 30.

Play on Stetson +28 (-113) for 3% (or 3 units)

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452 Cincinnati & Atlanta at Madrid

The Bengals have won three straight games, but are a mediocre 1-1-1 ATS in those contests. Off three straight AFC contests, and with a huge game next week vs Pittsburgh, we simply don't see the motivation with the Bengals here. Cincinnati has been out-gained in three of five games and we can't trust them here in the favorite role.

Coming off a divisional shutout loss, and taking on another AFC team next week. We look for the Falcons to be more focused here. Last week both teams struggled with turnovers, so a closer to the vest game wouldn't surprise.

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Take Philadelphia (#537)

Today’s Daily Double Free Play video offers my take on the 76ers - Cavs and the Raptors - Bucks in Friday NIght NBA action.  Here’s a brief write-up for Cleveland - Philly.

The Cavs led by 29 against the 76ers when these two teams met less than two weeks ago.  They did not hold that lead, losing outright to Philly.  Cleveland hasn’t been able to hold many leads — their wins have all come agianst lottery bound foes or struggling squads.  Back-2-back losses to OKC hasn’t improved their confidence level, nor will the injury to center Jarrett Allen on a night where they have to contain Joel Embiid.  Road chalk worth laying with the suprising and surging Sixers!  Take the 76ers.

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(547) Portland Trail Blazers at (548) Los Angeles Lakers: Moneyline

Los Angeles Lakers -146

NICE REVENGE SPOT FOR LA. LOST ON 10/27 TO POR 136-129.

ONLY LAKERS HOME LOSS THIS YEAR.

PLAY: LAKERS ML

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3% on Sacramento (ATS) | Good at 15 and above

The spread on this one looks a bit inflated. I had the Kings when they won in Dallas recently, and even though they dropped their next game by 13, I think they’ve begun to turn things around. San Antonio squeaked out a one-point victory last time out but has covered just once in its last four games. Sacramento was getting 19.5 points in San Antonio, and now we’re being offered close to that number with the game in Sacramento. Take the points and the value with a home underdog looking for payback.

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(65) Anaheim Ducks at (66) Calgary Flames: Total

Total Over 6.5 (-101)

Ducks games have gone OVER in five straight.

Flames games have gone OVER in four of their last five as favorites.

Anaheim averages 3.56 goals scored per game.

Anaheim allows 3.76 goals per game.

Play: OVER 6.5

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My college hoops total plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom, historical data from similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data.  I make a play when enough of these factors align.  I determine the play's size by how many of these factors align, how much value I perceive, and how confident I am in the play.

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SMU is coming off an upset loss at Syracuse last week. The Mustangs have lost 2 in a row just once since 10/15/2022. As a matter of fact, they've gone 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss in their previous game. I look for this to be a huge bounce back for a Top 25 caliber team like SMU.

Bet the SMU Mustangs as a point-spread wager of -7.0 or lower.

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The Grizzlies were one of the biggest surprises to start the NBA season, getting out to a 6-0 start and the last remaining unbeaten team before dropping 2 straight. The biggest problem has been turnovers, something they will need to correct as they find themselves in the underdog role at home Friday. This is a very wounded Thunder team. Out are both of the Williams, Cason Wallace, and Chet Holmgren, and even though they were able to string together a couple wins against the Cavs, things won’t be nearly as easy in NBA Cup play in Memphis. Take the Grizzlies.

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Peyton Watson (CLE) Under 12.5 Points vs Philadelphia

• Watson has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury. He’s listed as questionable on Friday, so we’re hoping to see him in a limited capacity tonight.

• Cleveland is on the front leg of a back-to-back and has to play the Knicks tomorrow, so we’re expecting to see a reduced workload for everyone tonight as the Cavs save some energy for tomorrow.

• Watson has been held below this number in four of his six games played this season.

• He scored eight points on 2-of-7 shooting at Philadelphia on Oct 22.

• In his last two games played against Milwaukee and Atlanta, Watson has gone a combined 3-of-14 from the field.

• Watson can make an impact in other areas outside of scoring.

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All of a sudden, the collar is starting to tighten around the Lobos, who have a path into the 12-team playoffs if they keep winning. That's getting harder and harder, however, with Jason Eck's fire-drill offense stuck on a 21-point treadmill the past three weeks, and QB Toa Fa'avae suddenly becoming very careless, with 6 picks across the past three weeks.

The Wolf Pack has concerns, too, especially at the QB spot where injuries have forced Jeff Choate recently to third-stringer Luke Duncan, who got pulled for a limping AJ Bianco at the Rose Bowl vs. UCLA last week. The Nevada infantry, however, might be able to churn out a few yards with RBs Herschel Turner and Dominic Kelley, and Choate's defense is allowing a very respectable 21 ppg, which can help keep the Pack within earshot in Reno. Play Nevada

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Taking Texas over Missouri laying the short number. The Longhorns have bounced back nicely the last couple weeks. This one not going to make the client card- Talked this bet on the clip below.

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(549) San Antonio Spurs at (550) Sacramento Kings: 1H Total

3% 1H Total Over 118.5 (-102) // Downgrade @ 122.5

San Antonio’s Performance:

• On average, San Antonio is putting up 61.1 points in the 1st half.

• Despite having one of the best defenses this season, they are allowing nearly 53%of their opponent points in the 1st half, before improving significantly in the 2nd half.

• San Antonio has gone over in the 1st half in 5 of the last 7 games.

Sacramento’s Performance:

• Sacramento's defense is allowing 63.8 points on average in the 1st half

  • ranking among the worst averages in the league.

• While their offense has struggled, they have managed to perform well at home in the opening half, putting up an average of 59 points.

• Sacramento has also gone over in 5 of the last 7 games.

Head-To-Head Trends:

• 7-1 OU in the 1st half since the start of the 2025 season.

• 17-6 OU in the 1st half since the start of the 2020 season.

Team Trends:

Sacramento:

• 4-1 OU revenging a loss in the 1st half.

• 6-1 OU with Doug Christie as head coach against up-tempo teams (93+ shots/game).

San Antonio:

• 14-2 OU off a win by 6 points or less in the last 2 years

  • starting the next game hot.

• 7-0 OU in the last 7 games off a win by 6 points or less.

• 9-1 OU on the road in the last 2 years off a win by 6 points or less.

• 11-2 OU as a favorite off a game they won straight up but didn’t cover.

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From a sheer numbers perspective, TCU (plus the points) looks like a good value this week. I don’t think this spread should be above a touchdown, quite frankly. The Horned Frogs were part of a winning ML parlay for me last Saturday as they scored a late TD to defeat Kansas 22-14. Now, we probably were a little lucky considering Kansas was +165 in total yards.

But, as I put in the writeup (which you can, of course, read down below), TCU was due for some good luck. All four of the Horned Frogs’ losses this season have been by eight points or fewer. So, again, grabbing +9.5 with them this week makes a lot of sense. TCU has a Top 10 scoring defense in the country. Just 14.1 PPG allowed. They’re also Top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, it's a bit of a letdown spot here for Arizona, after a close loss at Texas Tech on Saturday. I would not want to lay this number with them on Friday. Not with a bigger home game (vs. Utah) on deck.

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta faces Johnny Walker in Saturday night’s main event. Overall Waldo is a long athletic boxer who relies on good hand speed and a sharp snapping jab. He moves well enough on the feet and has proven durable throughout his career. All four of his losses have come by decision. Walker enters this fight off a first-round knockout win of Mick Parkin in his heavyweight debut. He remains a dynamic striker capable of explosive moments while staying light and mobile on the feet. So let's first address the elephant in the room... the most obvious concern is Walker's durability. Sure, Walker has been knocked out multiple times in brutal fashion and the risk of getting nuked early is legitimate. That history is the clear reason the market has him as a sizable underdog. Moving up to heavyweight could reduce some of that risk. He no longer has to cut down to light heavyweight which should leave him healthier and more durable on fight night. Draining himself down might have been part of the issue. He has also adjusted his approach. Instead of fighting with a chaotic urgency of a man barefoot on hot asphalt looking for his flip-flops, he's now more measured with a clearer process to his game. One of the most effective parts of that patient style is his leg kicking. Roughly 40% of his recent strikes have targeted the legs and that approach fits this matchup well. Waldo has consistently struggled to check or defend low kicks. When opponents go to his legs he often appears unsure how to respond. Walker’s fast and powerful calf kicks can exploit that opening throughout the fight. Plus, Waldo’s boxing-heavy style keeps him planted on that front foot while throwing. That creates a reliable target for Walker while he stays at range and protects his own chin. Overall Walker is also the more complete fighter. He brings a broader set of tools compared to Waldo’s primarily boxing-based attack. Beyond striking Waldo has shown vulnerability to takedowns at times. If Walker could mix in wrestling it would disrupt the rhythm and control the pace. Over his recent stretch Waldo has mostly faced strikers. In his last fight Curtis Blaydes took him down four times on his way to a win. That total stood out because it was the most takedowns Blaydes had landed in roughly six years. It suggests a wrestling path is still available against Waldo. If the fight goes to the ground Walker holds a clear grappling advantage and could look for a finish. His chin remains a liability and the chance of a knockout against him can not be ignored. But, at the current plus-money number the value still sits with Walker. His improved process, the heavyweight move and explosiveness match Waldo’s weaknesses give him a realistic path to win.

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Kansas State returns home off back-to-back road losses; they are 0-3 SU in away games this season.  However, the Wildcats are 4-1 SU at home, so we can expect their best effort in this game on Saturday.  Oklahoma State comes in off a wild 51-49 last second loss at Iowa State.  The Cowboys will be playing their 2nd straight road game, and their 3rd road game over their last 4 games overall.  This is a bad scheduling spot for them, especially since they are laying points.  Kansas State has also won 2 straight meetings, and 3 of the last 4 meetings overall.  Take the points with the live home underdog in this game on Saturday afternoon.

Play KANSAS STATE (+).

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This is the third meeting of the season. The road team won the first two games. Anaheim won 4-2 at Calgary. The Flames won 4-2 at Anaheim. In fact, the Ducks are 3-0 their past three visits to Calgary. With the Ducks playing their second game in two days, we're able to get them as underdogs. Catching the Flames returning home from a few road games, I like Anaheim's chances of scoring the minor upset.

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Take TCU – Arizona UNDER (#325-326)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Play opinions for Nebraska vs Illinois and Arizona vs TCU on Friday Night.  Here’s a brief write-up for the TCU – Arizona total.

The Horned Frogs have been the ultimate Under team since September.  They’re 6-0 to the Under in their last six contests, with TCU and their opponent combining for more than 38 points only once during that span.  TCU’s defense is worthy of respect; their offense has been consistently anemic.  In four previous home games this year, Arizona has allowed 3, 7, 7 and 17 points; strong defensively every time.  Expect another relatively low scoring struggle in Tucson.  Take the UNDER.

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Take Utah (#370)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Play opinions for UCLA – Minnesota and BYU – Utah in early start action on Saturday.  Here’s a brief write-up for BYU -Utah

The Cougars are on an 0-2 ATS slide since beating Notre Dame.  They lost outright at UCF and got tested at home last week by Arizona State, never sniffing a pointspread cover.  While Bear Bachmeier is an elite collegiate QB, the skill position talent surrounding him just hasn’t been able to create big plays against the better defenses that they’ve faced.  Expect that to be problematic against a quality Utah defense and a Utes offense that has the skill position speed that BYU lacks.  Take the Utes.

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PLAY: Tampa Bay +6.5

Tampa Bay has won two straight by a combined 59-13 since Baker Mayfield returned from a fractured thumb. The Bucs ran for 258 yards at Carolina and a team-record 324 in a driving rain against Atlanta, with Bucky Irving going for 170 and Kenny Gainwell adding another 140.

The defense has been just as good. Tampa allowed 13 points and then zero in those two games, forcing eight turnovers, including four interceptions of Michael Penix Jr. last Sunday. Bijan Robinson managed only 76 yards on 19 carries.

Even at 3-5, this team hasn't been blown out. All five losses have come by one score.

Chicago is coming off a big Monday night win in Seattle, and now it flies home and turns around on six days for Sunday night. D'Andre Swift needed 27 carries to get 69 yards against the Seahawks, and the Bears' defense has given up 10 plays of 40 or more yards, the most in the league.

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PLAY: Minnesota +5.5

Is there a better coach in the country as an underdog than PJ Fleck? Minnesota beat Washington 27-24 as a 12-point dog for us, then took down Michigan 20-14 and Iowa 13-10 at home, where we were on them again. Last week the Gophers had No. 4 Indiana beat with 19 seconds left after Luke Drzewiecki hit a 60-yard field goal for a 16-13 lead. Indiana tied it with its own 60-yarder at the gun and won in overtime as a 20.5-point favorite.

Yes, UCLA is 8-0 AND 8-0 ATS. Not wanting to step in front of that is understandable. This defense is legit: 7 points a game allowed over the last five. But this is a different offense without Nico Iamaleava, who is done for the year after knee surgery. Ty Dieffenbach, the Cal Poly transfer, has thrown three TD passes in four games, and UCLA has scored 17, 28 and 27 the last three weeks. This is the Bruins' first road game since October 10.

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(321) Nebraska at (322) Illinois: Spread

Nebraska -4.5 (-110)

Betting Analysis: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Nebraska Cornhuskers Overview:

• Current Form: Nebraska enters this game on a three-game losing streak despite leading at halftime in each of those matches.

  • Halftime Leads: 10-3 vs. Washington, 7-0 vs. Michigan State, and 7-3 vs. Rutgers.

• Performance Against the Spread (ATS):

  • They were +6.5 and +9.5 point underdogs in two of those losses.

  • Despite the recent losses, Nebraska has shown competitiveness, having outgained opponents in every game this season.

• Yardage Statistics:

  • Against Oregon: Outgained despite being a +6.5 underdog.

  • Against Michigan State: Finished with a 369-257 yards advantage in a 31-13 win.

• Turnover Margin: In their 17-10 home loss against Washington, Nebraska was -3 in turnovers despite holding a 387-267 yards edge.

  • ATS Trends: Under head coach Matt Rhule, Nebraska is 17-6 (74%) ATS following games where they were -2 or more in turnovers, and 15-4 (79%) ATS, excluding games as a favorite of -7 or higher with a total over 35.

• Current Pressure for Bowl Eligibility: Nebraska is feeling the pressure as a home underdog needing a sixth win for bowl eligibility. Historically, teams in this position with five wins are 41% ATS (69-95-3).

Illinois Fighting Illini Overview:

• Current Form: Illinois comes in after three consecutive wins but shows a mixed performance against the spread.

  • ATS Record This Season: 3-4-1.

  • Illinois had covers as significant underdogs (+25.5 at Ohio State and +10.5 at home against Oregon).

• Recent Performances: While Illinois has positive momentum, their overall performance has been inconsistent, particularly against stronger competition.

Statistical Insights:

• Turnover Average: For teams averaging fewer than 1.25 turnovers per game in their eighth game of the season or later, the ATS record for away favorites of -3.5 to -10 is impressive at 26-7 (79%).

• Cornhuskers’ Edge: Nebraska has not been outgained during any game this season, showcasing their ability to move the ball effectively.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Take San Francisco (#468)

The Daily Double video below offers Free Plays for the 49ers - Raiders and the Packers - Patriots games on Sunday.  Here’s a brief write-up for the Vegas - San Francisco game.

The 49ers are coming off a bad, four turnovers defeat in Atlanta before their bye week — there’s some urgency for Kyle Shanahan’s squad off that debacle.  San Fran also enjoys a significant rest edge compared to Las Vegas.  Teams with extra rest have been $$ in the NFL this year, an emerging trend worth riding here.  Las Vegas isn’t getting many stops these days — a dismal defensive team in recent weeks — and they’re coming off a very satisfying win to snap a four game skid.  Expect a new skid to start here in a game the Niners are primed to win by margin!  Take the 49ers.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

(411) Kentucky at (412) Tennessee: 1Q Total

1Q Total Under 9.5 (109)

My thoughts on Kentucky/Tennesse under 1Q & 1H from the Best Damn B

tting Show on Wednesday

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

PLAY: New England -3

Drake Maye is red-hot right now. Over his past five starts, he's tossed 14 TDs against just two picks with a 69% completion rate, including a surgical 16-of-20 performance for 199 yards and two scores in Miami last week.

New England sits at 5-3 with a big road win in Buffalo already banked, and they are a perfect 3-0 at home while allowing just 13 PPG in Foxborough. Plus, their rushing attack has eclipsed 130 yards in four of the last five.

Green Bay simply cannot run the ball, failing to crack 86 rushing yards in a single game all year. They are putting way too much weight on Jordan Love's shoulders. On the road, this offense hasn't put up more than 22 points. Josh Jacobs carried 21 times for just 39 yards against Carolina last week.

To make matters worse, Love's top weapon Christian Watson (708 yards, 6 TDs) suffered a broken rib against Carolina on Thursday. Even though he toughed it out to finish the game, his health for Sunday is a major question mark.

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Rutgers enters Saturday’s Big Ten matchup as a substantial road underdog, but the number appears aggressive for a Wisconsin team whose defense has been substantially better than its offense. The Badgers are 5-3 but enter off a 30-0 loss at Iowa, while Rutgers was considerably more competitive in a 28-21 loss to Michigan. Wisconsin deserves to be favored, especially at home, but covering 15.5 requires the Badgers to win by at least 16 points with an offense that has struggled to sustain and finish possessions consistently. The Badgers rank 37th overall with a 9.0 rating and 15th defensively at 18.0, but their offensive rating is -0.7, ranking 74th. Wisconsin’s efficiency metrics are even less encouraging, with the Badgers generating only a 38.7% offensive success rate, ranking 115th nationally, while averaging just 3.20 points per scoring opportunity and a 37.5% rushing success rate. Wisconsin’s 30-0 loss to Iowa exposed those limitations, as starting quarterback Colton Joseph was eventually replaced by freshman Ryan Hopkins, who completed 8 of 13 passes for 93 yards with an interception. Joseph has otherwise produced 1,346 passing yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions while adding 371 rushing yards and four scores, but his struggles against Iowa highlighted the volatility of an offense that has not consistently created separation.

The most appealing element of the Rutgers offense is its ability to create explosive plays. The Scarlet Knights rank ninth nationally in overall explosiveness and fourth in passing explosiveness while averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 17 passing touchdowns. That big-play ability is particularly valuable for a substantial underdog because Rutgers does not need to consistently manufacture long scoring drives against Wisconsin’s defense. One or two explosive completions can flip field position, generate quick points, and dramatically change the margin required from a Wisconsin offense that has struggled to sustain efficiency. Rutgers remained within one possession of Michigan despite completing only three passes, losing 28-21. Adding a more functional passing component would increase the Scarlet Knights’ ability to capitalize on their season-long explosiveness and create the handful of scoring possessions they may need to stay inside this number.

The projected pace also favors the underdog. Rutgers averages approximately 28.4 seconds per play compared with 28.9 for Wisconsin, so neither team is likely to maximize possession volume. That style benefits Wisconsin from a straight-up perspective because its defense can control the game and reduce variance, but it works against the Badgers from a point-spread standpoint. The Scarlet Knights’ 2-6 record puts them in an uncomfortable spot, and their season includes several poor performances. However, Rutgers has also shown it can stay competitive against quality opponents, losing 42-35 to USC, winning 37-30 at Maryland, and staying within seven points of Michigan. Wisconsin presents a different challenge because the Badgers have been built primarily around defense and game control rather than an explosive offense that can quickly turn a one-possession game into a blowout. Ultimately, this investment is predicated on the price, Wisconsin’s offensive limitations, and the expected low-possession environment.

My technical database provides additional support for Rutgers:

• Play On: Road teams facing opponents that were shut out in their previous game are 274-219 ATS (55.6%) since 1993, generating +33.1 units and a +6.1% ROI;

• Play On: Road teams with seven or fewer days of rest facing opponents coming off a shutout loss are 176-119 ATS (59.7%) since 1999, generating +45.1 units and a +13.9% ROI;

• Play Against: Home favorites coming off games in which they scored fewer than ten points are 409-317 ATS (56.3%) for bettors fading those favorites since 2004, generating +60.3 units and a +7.5% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of at least three points in games with totals below 46 are 493-361 ATS (57.7%) since 2000, generating +95.9 units and a +10.2% ROI;

• Play On: Conference underdogs of 6 to 24 points in games with totals between 37 and 46 during the first 12 weeks of the season, vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs, are 328-210 ATS (61.0%) since 1989, generating +97.0 units and a +16.4% ROI;

• Play On: Conference road underdogs of 6 to 20.5 points in games with totals between 40.5 and 47.5 during weeks 4-12 vs. opponents that missed the previous season's playoffs are 332-244 ATS (57.6%) since 1989, generating +63.6 units and a +10.0% ROI.

Ultimately, the value lies in the relationship between Wisconsin’s strengths and the spread size. The Badgers are clearly the better defensive team and deserve to be favored, but their underlying offensive efficiency makes laying more than two touchdowns difficult to justify. Rutgers possesses enough explosiveness to manufacture points without consistently sustaining drives, while the deliberate pace and low total should reduce Wisconsin’s opportunities to build a margin. Take Rutgers as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, November 7.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

App State has won each of the last 12 meetings in this Sun Belt series. The Mountaineers have covered the spread in four of the last five meetings, including a 41-20 road win at Georgia State last week. We've successfully played against the Panthers each of the last three weeks, and we're not getting off that train this week. It's been a rinse-and-repeat formula for Georgia State. We don't want to take anything away from what the Panthers have accomplished thus far, because clearing your projected season win total by the first week of October is still something to celebrate, no matter who you are. But with all due respect to Georgia State, wins over North Carolina A&T, Kennesaw State, Northern Illinois and Old Dominion aren't moving the needle for us. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-26 this season. Over the last three weeks against James Madison, Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have fallen short of point spread expectations by an average of 14.2 points per game. Throw in a 14-point loss to UCF earlier this season, and the Panthers haven't come close to beating a half-decent team this year. The final score of last week's 31-20 loss to Coastal Carolina looks respectable, but that was a 31-6 game in the third quarter before the Chanticleers put things on cruise control for the final minutes. Georgia State's defense forced three turnovers but the Panthers' offense couldn't do anything with the extra possessions. Play App State

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Based on some early-week content that we have consumed this week, there is likely going to be some back-and-forth action on this game. Those looking to back UConn will point to North Carolina's schedule and the presumed let-down spot after the Tar Heels lost back-to-back games against Syracuse and Miami (Fla) by a total of four points. Add those to weather-related losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, and North Carolina has been snakebitten for large stretches of the season. We're not ready to buy into that narrative just yet. There's about ten programs in the country where you can ignore "letdown spot" narratives (i.e. the military academies), and a Bill Belichick-coached team is probably one of them. You think the guy that has over 300 wins in the NFL is going to let his team have a let-down spot? Especially in the northeast where he's still got quite a following? Don't forget, the Tar Heels didn't make a bowl game last season, so simply reaching six wins and going to a bowl game is still a goal for this team. Realistically, how much can you downgrade North Carolina after these recent losses? They certainly stung, but the Tar Heels have covered the spread in four of the last five games. So you can't downgrade UNC from a power ratings perspective, because they've actually overperformed expectations. The team that fell short of expectations last week is UConn, who couldn't beat Air Force with an ex-linebacker playing quarterback that didn't complete a pass. The Huskies just played at altitude in the Mountain Time Zone and had to defend 74 Air Force rushing plays. We'll make the argument that UConn is the team on letdown alert this week, not North Carolina.
Play North Carolina

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is the first meeting between the Colts and Cowboys since Dallas earned a 54-19 home win as a double-digit favorite in December 2022. In last week's newsletter, we mentioned that Indianapolis was likely going to be a significant seller at the trade deadline and the Colts have not disappointed thus far. Long-tenured guard Quenton Nelson was sent to Seattle, defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was shipped to San Francisco and more moves are likely on the way. Wide receiver Josh Downs has requested a trade and it sounds like several suitors have made offers for running back Jonathan Taylor. Heck, with the questionable QB situation around the league, a team like Baltimore or Minnesota might be half-tempted to inquire about Daniel Jones. Since returning home from London, the Colts have lost their last four contests by an average of 14.8 points per game. Things aren't looking much better on the Cowboys' side at the moment. Dallas is 1-3 straight-up and against the spread over the last four games, including two losses as a 7+ point favorite. The Cowboys jumped out to a 14-0 lead last week against Arizona and still held a 17-3 lead in the final minute of the third quarter before blowing the game in overtime. Since 2000, Dallas had been 69-0 when leading by 14+ points in the fourth quarter, but that run came to a close against the Cardinals. Defensive back Caleb Downs, safety PJ Locke, edge rusher Malachi Lawrence, cornerback Joey Porter, Jr. and tight end Jake Ferguson all suffered injuries in last week's loss to Arizona. Downs needs to clear concussion protocol, while Lawrence is expected to miss a few weeks with an ankle injury. Let's take the Cowboys' defense completely out of this equation, especially with the four injuries on defense that we just listed. The Cowboys' team total has opened at 29.5, which is a mark Dallas has cleared in five of its last seven games. The Colts' last four opponents have scored an average of 29.5 points against Indianapolis, and that list includes Minnesota and Tennessee who are bottom-6 in the NFL in points scored this season. Dallas' offense is significantly better than most of the offenses Indianapolis has seen over the last five weeks. Also, after what happened last week, you better believe Dallas is playing for 60 minutes this week, and we may see a late insurance score that we may not have seen in other contests. Play Cowboys (Team Total) Over

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on MIN (Outright).

UCLA is still undefeated, and 8-0 ATS. They are down to a backup QB, and this game at Minnesota will be his first start on the road. Traveling east for BIG10 road games has been a death sentence for former PAC12 teams. Minnesota already has wins over Iowa and Michigan at home. Last week they went to overtime in a road game at Indiana, but came up short. The Gophers are only allowing opponents to average 15 points per game at home. I'll take the home dog to win outright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Two of the nation’s top teams square off in Baton Rouge Saturday as the great rivalry between Alabama and LSU gives us another chapter. With both teams having 2 losses, the implications are enormous, and LSU has not looked impressive when asked to step up in class. Already with losses over Ole Miss and Kentucky, the Tigers have yet to beat an elite opponent. We know that quarterback Sam Leavitt is turnover prone, and that’s bad news against a defense like Alabama has. Keelon Russell has been great for the Tide and we’ll put over a field goal in our pocket as they make a statement in Death Valley. Take Alabama.

100% (3-0) CFB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)

87.5% (7-1) CFB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)

70% (7-3) NFL RUN!

26-16 TOP PLAY RUN! (5%)

DON’T MISS JIMMY’S 5% COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP PLAY ON SATURDAY!

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago