Free Sports Predictions MAY 9: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Carolina won its seventh straight playoff game on Thursday and took a commanding 3-0 lead in their series against the Flyers. The Hurricanes have a very good chance of completing their second consecutive postseason sweep on Saturday in Philadelphia. Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3188-2157 (59.6%; +2.6% ROI), while NHL playoff road favorites are 253-161 (61.1%; +6.5% ROI) since the beginning of the 2003-4 season. Since 2011, NHL road favorites of -160 or greater from Game 45 forward are 467-238 (66.2%; +1% ROI), provided at least one team is rested, including 271-106 (66.9%) since 2021, winning by an average margin of 0.9 goals per game. The foregoing situation is 57-23 (71.2%; +10.9% ROI) in postseason play, winning by an average margin of 1.1 goals per game. Since 2010, NHL road favorites of -210 or less are 434-271 (61.6%; +6.2% ROI) following back-to-back unders, provided they won their last game. Finally, Eastern Conference road teams priced between -100 and -199 are 414-286 (59.1%; +4.6% ROI) following a win that went under the total, including 161-106 (60.3%; +4.7% ROI) since the beginning of the 2018-19 season. Take the Carolina Hurricanes as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, May 9.

-> Only four teams that trailed 3-0 in a seven-game series have come all the way back to win — the 1942 Maple Leafs, 1980 Islanders, 2010 Flyers, and 2014 Kings.

-> The Hurricanes are the 13th team to start a postseason 7-0, and eight of the previous 12 won the Stanley Cup.

PROVEN PERFORMANCE

-> Torrid 136-92 Overall Run | +88 Units
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (60%)
-> #1 Basketball (NBA/NCAA): 104-71 (59.4%)
-> Red-Hot 44-28 (61.1%) NBA Run
-> Documented 64% NHL Winners in '26

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Colorado arrives in Minnesota off a 5-2 win over the Wild on Tuesday, securing a 2-0 lead in their second-round playoff series. Colorado scored two power play goals in the win, which is relevant because NHL road favorites coming off a game in which they scored two or more power play goals are 183-109 (62.7%; +3.3% ROI) since 2003. Sports bettors should not shy away from NHL road favorites during the regular season or postseason. Since 2003, NHL conference road teams with odds between -110 and -125 have achieved a 55.2% win rate (899 wins, 731 losses) and a 3% return on investment. Meanwhile, NHL playoff road favorites have won 61.1% of their games (253 wins, 161 losses), resulting in a 6.5% ROI. In addition, NHL road favorites of -120 to -200 are 627-404 (60.8%; +2.2% ROI) from Game 50 forward, provided they did not go into overtime in their previous two contests. Finally, since 2003, NHL home underdogs entering off a game in which they had 30 or more shots on goal are 1198-1673 (41.7%; -4.9% ROI), including 408-633 (39.2%; -7.0% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season, losing by an average of -0.6 goals per game. Take the Colorado Avalanche as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, May 9.

PROVEN PERFORMANCE

-> Torrid 136-92 Overall Run | +88 Units
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (60%)
-> #1 Basketball (NBA/NCAA): 104-71 (59.4%)
-> Red-Hot 44-28 (61.1%) NBA Run
-> Documented 64% NHL Winners in '26

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Oklahoma City has won the first two games by an average of 18 points, including a 125-107 victory over the Lakers on Thursday. Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1848-1559-66 ATS (54.2%), while road favorites in the same price range coming off three consecutive games in which they scored 105 or more points are 787-616-29 ATS (56.1%). Moreover, NBA road favorites arriving off consecutive 9-plus point home wins are 247-183-8 ATS (57.4%), while NBA road teams coming off two or more consecutive double-digit home wins are 220-166-9 ATS (57%) versus opponents off a loss. Oklahoma City’s prolific offense triggers a very good 296-210-11 ATS (58.5%) system that invests on certain road favorites of -3.5 to -9.5 points coming off three straight games in which they scored at least 105 points. Los Angeles has been an underdog in the first two games in this series, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 275-361-13 ATS (43.2%). Since 1989, NBA road favorites of -5 or greater with a worse ATS margin on the road are 1021-846-39 ATS (55%) versus opponents with a better ATS margin at home. Finally, the Thunder are 117-68-3 ATS (63.2%) following a game in which they had a certain number of assists, provided they won. Take the Oklahoma City Thunder as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, May 9.

PROVEN PERFORMANCE

-> Torrid 136-92 Overall Run | +88 Units
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (61%)
-> #1 Basketball (NBA/NCAA): 104-71 (59.4%)
-> Red-Hot 44-28 (61.1%) NBA Run
-> NBA Top Plays: 65.4% Winners in ‘26

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Sunderland vs Manchester United
EPL, Saturday, 10am ET

Play: Bruno Fernandes Anytime Assist
Odds at Time of Release: +215 DK
Line Parameter: Line good to +150

Skipping past sides and totals here, going straight to a player prop and it's none other than Bruno Fernandes, who is still at 19 assists in the season and chasing to either tie, or break, the record for most assists in a season, currently co-held by De Bruyne and Thierry Henry at 20 assists. There's 2 more matches for Man United after this one, and we will chase his assists in each and every match.

He needs 1 more assist to tie, and 2 more to break the record. Last week he had 0.91 Expected Assists with 2 Big Chances created, and prior to that he had an assist in 4 consecutive matches. He is on set piece duty, he got very close last week and is chasing a monumental record.

Sunderland look like an easy opponent right now, they've let loose after mathematically saving themselves from relegation, with a 1-1 draw against the already relegated Wolves, a massive 5-0 home loss to Nottingham and a 4-3 loss on the road against Aston Villa. They are wide open at the back nowadays and we'll back up Bruno to get an assist.

Take 2% on Bruno Fernandes Anytime Assist (+215 DraftKings), line good to +150

NOTE: I usually take Assist Props at FanDuel because they count assists a bit differently, but they have Bruno Assist at +120 and I don't like these odds. Plus, the way that FanDuel count assists isn't how they officially count for EPL records, so that's why I am going with the significantly better odds at DraftKings.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

The Yankees were shut out yesterday and hold just a half game lead in the AL East. It was a situational spot as they faced one of the best pitchers in baseball, but New York has been scoring at an extremely high clip as of late. The Bronx Bombers have the most home runs on the year and are 3^rd in total runs scored. Now it’s their turn to send one of the best to the mound as Cam Schlittler gets called upon for Game 2. Schlittler has the 2^nd best ERA in baseball at 1.52 and has allowed 1 run combined over his past 2 starts. Take the Yankees.

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Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Minnesota starter Joe Ryan projects to give up 2.1 runs with a 3.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.  Cleveland’s lineup has hit just .214 (22-103) with a weak .652 OPS against Ryan in his career.  The Guardians will start Tanner Bibee.  The righty projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a 4.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Minnesota’s favor, look for the Twins to get a solid road win in this game on Saturday night.

Play TWINS (+).

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Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Leading this year’s AL West might be akin to being mayor of Gilligan’s Island, but the A’s still seem to deserve a bit more respect in the marketplace. There looks a chance to take advantage this afternoon at Camden Yards behind Aaron Civale, a steady presence in Mark Kotsay’s rotation and off a pair of starts vs. the Royals and Guardians in which he allowed just 1 ER across 11 IP.

Meanwhile the Birds keep floundering, losers in seven of nine, including the series opener last night, and Saturday starter Shane Baz (4.99 ERA) still searching for consistency on the mound. Play A’s on Money Line

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Two questionable starters followed by two questionable bullpens sets the stage for runs in bunches on Saturday. Castillo for the Mariners has let up 35 hits and 10 walks in his last 23 innings, including 11 earned runs in his last 11 innings pitched overall. Kay for the White Sox has a dismal 20 to 15 strikeout to walk ratio and north of a 6 FIP on the season.

Each of these two bullpens rank in the bottom 10 across MLB by most metrics and the M's pen is dealing with multiple key arms on the IL. There is an 8.5 (-120) at a couple books, 9 is the consensus number. This one just missed the Saturday client card, however likely gets into the double digits. For today's free pick- Bet the over in the Windy City.

I will be in with video analysis tomorrow morning...

Free Pick Recap: 16-8 (+7.46 units) 
Friday- Pirates (-137) Loss
Thursday- Marlins (-118) WINNER
Wednesday- Rays (-130) WINNER
Tuesday- Nationals (-118) Loss
Monday- Padres (-142) Loss
Sunday- Pirates (-120) WINNER 
Saturday- Mariners (-140) Loss
Friday- Phillies/ Marlins over 8.5 (-110) WINNER 
Thursday- Blue Jays (-135) Loss
Wednesday- Nationals (+140) WINNER 
Wednesday- Cubs (+100) WINNER 
Tuesday- Yankees (-118) WINNER 
Monday- Cardinals (+115) WINNER 
Saturday- Padres (+100) WINNER 
Friday- Tigers (-130) Loss
Thursday- Padres/ Rockies over 11 (-110) WINNER
Tuesday- Pirates (+100) Loss
Monday- Cubs (-102) WINNER 
Saturday- White Sox/ A's over 9.5 (-115) WINNER
Friday- Brewers/ Marlins over 8.5 (-105) WINNER 
Thursday- Rockies (+146) WINNER
Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
Wednesday- Cubs (+122) WINNER
Tuesday- Diamondbacks (+135) WINNER

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

The knee-jerk reaction would be to grab Portland as a home dog in its franchise debut and home opener. But this roster isn’t very strong, and it’s going to take time to build chemistry.

Chicago is more prepared to start the season, and the team chemistry looks solid. Chicago also made a big trade by sending Angel Reese to Atlanta, and the reality is there was a lot of tension and side drama with her on the roster. I think this team will play better without her moving forward. This feels like a classic case of addition by subtraction. My numbers have Chicago winning by 8 or more.

TAKE CHICAGO -5.5

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

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Sasaki has been bad, a team like the Braves should never be 1.5.

ATL @ LAD — May 9, 2026
Probable starters used: Spencer Strider for ATL and Roki Sasaki for LAD. Strider enters 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA, 2.70 WHIP, and only 3.1 IP after returning from the injured list. Sasaki enters 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 26 K. ATL enters 26-12, 14-6 away, scoring 5.61 runs/game and allowing 3.53. LAD enters 23-14, 12-6 home, scoring 5.30 runs/game and allowing 3.22.

Current board used: LAD -168, ATL +140, full-game total 8.5, with ATL +1.5 around -150 and LAD -1.5 around +125. A lower earlier board showed LAD -132 / ATL +110 / total 8.0, but the main value chart uses the active 8.5 / LAD -168 market.

Weather/park: Dodger Stadium projects around 78°F, 0% rain, and 6 mph wind. Dodger Stadium remains more neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly than the raw lineup quality suggests, but warm, dry conditions prevent a major under adjustment.

Projected lineup basis: ATL — Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Eli White, Mauricio Dubón, Mike Yastrzemski, Jorge Mateo. LAD — Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Andy Pages, Max Muncy, Hyeseong Kim, Miguel Rojas, Dalton Rushing / Alex Freeland spot. Ronald Acuña Jr. is out with a hamstring injury, lowering ATL’s top-end ceiling. Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman availability also drag the LAD lineup ceiling.

Projected score

Projected starting pitcher box

Wager & Probability Analysis

1st 5 team totals

Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

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ATH @ BAL — May 9, 2026
Civale enters at 3-1, 2.95 ERA, 36.2 IP, 27 K, 1.34 WHIP. Baz enters at 1-3, 4.99 ERA, 39.2 IP, 33 K, 1.54 WHIP. ATH season offense sits around .251 AVG / .327 OBP / .407 SLG with 43 HR; BAL sits around .235 AVG / .321 OBP / .387 SLG with 40 HR.

Projected lineups used: ATH — Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Carlos Cortes, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, Jeff McNeil, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof. BAL — Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward, Dylan Beavers, Pete Alonso, Samuel Basallo, Leody Taveras, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo, Jeremiah Jackson.

Weather: 67.8°F, 4.9 mph wind, 26.83% humidity, 0% precipitation. Park adjustment is positive for offense and HR carry, with recent park-factor data showing Camden Yards above league average for run scoring and strongly above average for HR.

Direct BvP adjustment: BAL hitters against Civale show 42 AB, 8 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 15 K, .190 AVG / .261 OBP / .286 SLG / .547 OPS. Gunnar Henderson and Leody Taveras are the key positive BvP bats; Taylor Ward and Adley Rutschman have poor direct samples.

Projected score

Projected starting pitcher box

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Bayern Munich/Wolfsburg [OVER] | Good until 3.75, -140.

During the week, Bayern Munich failed to capitalize on being at home in the Champions League and played a disappointing match against PSG. The giants of Germany are now out of the UCL & have just a few games left on the schedule now. A loss like that could definitely see the morale down from the team. But, I think that they still have enough offensive prowess to bag at least three goals on Saturday. Don't forget that Bayern averages more than 3.6 goals per game in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg will want to capitalize on Bayern's "poor" form, with B2B draws. I wouldn't be surprised if it even goes up in this game. That should ultimately lead to a high scoring game after the UCL second leg wasn't as attacking minded. I'll go OVER here.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Down 3-0 in the series, the Flyers are highly unlikely to come back. However, that doesn't mean that they aren't going to fight like crazy in Game 4. Remember, the Flyers' season was essentially written off. They were well out of a playoff spot when the NHL went on break for the Olympics. Yet, they refused to die. As coach Tocchet said: "We've been dead before and we've climbed out of it. We've played a lot of playoff games the last two, three months, and now we're in a situation where it's a must-win. It's a do-or-die game. How do you go into this game making these guys play relaxed. ... Can we be more determined tomorrow night? Yeah, I think we can." I think they can, too. As a large underdog, I feel they're providing value. *Good at +145 or better

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Situationally, this is NOT a great spot to bet Bayern Munich. They just got eliminated from the Champions League midweek and have already clinched their 13th Bundesliga title in the last 14 seasons. So there is a legit question about their motivation heading into Saturday's fixture at Wolfsburg.

But the price on the 3-way line is borderline outrageous considering Bayern are facing a relegation-threatened opponent. No way this should be below -200. Just way too cheap not to take a shot, especially considering Vincent Kompany's side are now winless in three straight matches. Previously, they had not gone two in a row all season without a win.

Yes, Wolfsburg will be desperate for a point Saturday. But that's been priced into this number. The Wolves' hopes of avoiding automatic relegation will almost certainly hinge on next week's fixture at St. Pauli. They do need to be concerned about goal difference here. But even a rotated Bayern squad should be able to get the win. Bayern have won 26 of 32 league matches this season (only one loss) with a +81 goal differential. That includes an 8-1 win (at home) over Wolfsburg back in January!

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Take Det - Clev Game 3 OVER (#501-502)

The three biggest factors for NBA totals are pace, three point shooting and free throw attempts.  We can expect more free throw attempts and more three point makeson Saturday in Game 3 than we did either of the first two games; and we’ve got a lower posted total.  It’s not like Game 1 or Game 2 was particularly sluggish – neither was uptempo but ineither was a true slowdown affair either.   Here’s the key quote from Cavs head coach Kenny Atkinson, talking about what Donovan Mitchell needs to do to turn the series around: “Get to the paint, get to the rim. That's all you can do. That's all you control. You know, we just got to keep driving the ball. You meet aggressiveness with aggressiveness, and then we got to make the right reads.  So keep getting to the paint. It'll turn. It usually does with the free throws.”   Put it all together and this Saturday Afternoon total looks a notch or two low for this bettor.  Take the OVER.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

ATP : Italian Open

Flavio Cobolli -282...(3%) thru ML -300

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

(503) Oklahoma City Thunder at (504) Los Angeles Lakers: LeBron James Points

1.5% LeBron James Points Over 21.5 (-105)

LeBron James Performance Analysis:

• Current Averages: LeBron James has been a central figure for the Lakers in the playoffs, averaging 23.7 points per game while playing 38.4 minutes per game. He takes an average of 18.3 field goals per game, including 5.1 three-pointers.

• Scoring in the Series: In the first two games of the playoff series, LeBron scored 23 points in game #1 and 27 points in game #2. His ability to consistently reach scoring totals is evident, and he has topped this scoring total in 7 of the last 8 playoff games. The only exception to this success was a game against Houston, where he scored less due to playing only 33 minutes in a 115-96 loss.

• Shooting Efficiency: LeBron has been efficient in shooting, hitting 60% in the first two games of the series.

• Team Performance: The Lakers as a team shot 50% in game #2, and excluding the last games of the regular season when resting starters the last time they allowed 50% plus at home was January 11.

Released/revised 21 hour(s) ago

Yaroslav Amosov enters this contest with an impressive 29-1 professional record and arrives as a former champion from other organizations. In his UFC debut he did submitted an aging Neil Magny in round 1. His primary strategy is to wrestle, secure takedowns and establishing dominant top control once the fight hits the mat. What makes this matchup particularly compelling is Joel Alvarez’s comfort when fighting off his back. Alvarez possesses elite grappling ability that allows him to remain dangerous even in inferior positions. He actively hunts for submissions from bottom guard and demonstrates remarkable creativity in setting them up. His submission arsenal is broad and versatile enabling him to finish fights from virtually any angle at any moment. Out of his 23 victories, 17of those were by submission. Amosov’s wrestling base virtually guarantees he will pursue takedowns early and often. Yet those entries play straight into Alvarez’s greatest strength. Joel deliberately invites opponents into grappling exchanges because he trusts his superior skill once the fight reaches the canvas. It is difficult to envision Amosov maintaining prolonged top pressure without facing constant submission threats. Every moment spent on the ground carries legitimate finishing danger for the Yaroslav. Should the bout remain standing Alvarez enjoys an even more pronounced advantage. He is the far more polished and powerful striker of the two. His arsenal features devastating knees, heavy elbows and significant power behind every shot. Even in the clinch he's especially destructive relentlessly accumulating damage in tight against his opponents. Amosov’s stand-up game by contrast remains relatively basic and lacks the technical depth Alvarez displays. This disparity leaves Amosov in a precarious spot. He must contend with a dangerous submission threat on the ground while facing a superior striker on the feet. These factors allow Alvarez to control the tempo and fight as the clear aggressor. He can choose when to engage in grappling exchanges and when to press the action at range. This also represents a significant step up in competition for Amosov who has spent much of his career competing in minor leagues in organizations such as Bellator. Alvarez on the other hand has consistently tested himself against UFC level opposition and found success. Overall Alvarez stands out as the more violent fighter with substantial finishing upside and brings superior experience against higher caliber competition. At a plus money price tag in a favorable matchup give me Joel Alvarez to get the win and cash this play!

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago