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Bryan Power
College Basketball
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I know the expectation is that Dan Hurley, who is an incredible 14-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament the L3 years, will have UConn "ready to roll" after a humiliating loss (to St. John's) in the Big East Tournament Final. But this particular edition of the Huskies really isn't anywhere close to the groups that captured National Titles in both 2023 and 2024.
This is a big number to be laying, considering UConn plays slow (323rd in adjusted tempo) and often bogs down offensively. We're also talking about catching 20+ points in a game where the total is < 140.
Don't be fooled by the fact Furman finished sixth in the SoCon during the regular season. They were dealing with injuries. The Paladins seem to be peaking at the right time as they averaged an impressive 1.2 PPP in the conference tournament. They have size (all five starters are at least 6'4") and as a result shoot 66% on close-twos. With some decent three-point shooting, I see no reason that the underdog doesn't stay within this generous number.
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5% FRIDAY CBB MAX BET (RARE!) : $35.00
(Note: Bryan Power is already 2-0 with 4% BEST BETS in the NCAA Tournament as Miami OH +7.5 and Texas +2.5 BOTH won OUTRIGHT!)Now BP is going BIG in the first round of the NCAA Tournament with a RARE 5% MAX BET! BP, traditionally, does NOT have many 5% releases. But he absolutely LOVES this matchup, which just might end up being the BIGGEST UPSET o ...
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March Madness Bonanza, UNDER $6 A DAY!
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Ben Burns
College Basketball
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This O/U line is high -- but likely not high enough. High Point just scored 83 against Wisconsin, allowing 82. The Panthers averaged a whopping 93.8 ppg in the regular season. They've played 34 games and they scored more than 70 every time. Now the Panthers take on an Arkansas team which also averaged more than 90 ppg during the season. The Razorbacks just dropped 97 on Hawaii in the opening rd, the sixth straight time they've scored more than 80. Expect a fast-paced high-scoring affair. *good up to 170
Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper of All-Time. He enters Friday with a perfect 4-0 tournament record and on a 12-2 CBB run overall, part of a longer-term +314 unit hoops heater.
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*VERY EARLY* NCAA BREAKFAST CLUB (12-2 CBB RUN, #1 ALL-TIME) : $25.00
Off blowout winners with Illinois and Houston, All-Time College Hoops Champion Ben Burns is already a PERFECT 4-0 with his NCAA/NIT Tournament picks. That brings him to a SWEET 12-2 with his L14 college basketball, part of a longer +314 UNIT HEATER. His Opening Rd. BREAKFAST CLUB goes BRIGHT AND EARLY Friday morning. Don't sleep in on it!#1 NC ...
FRI. AFTERNOON NCAA *4* "BIG EASY!" (12-2 RUN, 4-0 IN TOURNAMENT!): $25.00
All-Time College Hoops Champion Ben Burns delivered AGAIN this season AND he's already a PERFECT 4-0 with his NCAA/NIT Tournament picks. He enters Friday on a RED HOT 12-2/86% CBB HEATER and on a longer-term +314.88 UNIT BASKETBALL PROFIT RAMPAGE. Speaking of "rampaging," Burns has isolated a Friday afternoon NCAA Tournament game whi ...
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Ralph Michaels
NHL Hockey
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(67) Colorado Avalanche at (68) Chicago Blackhawks: Spread
Chicago Blackhawks +1.5 (102)
As we close in on the end of the regular season, NHL teams can wear out
Late season NHL teams (game #25+) / win%>60 / Away off a Loss / and a Fav of -180+
Avg line is -235 and they are 30-32 (48%) on the ML (-27.9% ROI)
On the Puck Line they are 17-45 (27.4%) & -39.7% ROI
Colorado has lost 3 straight by a combined 12-4, and they are 1-6 their last 7 on the Puck Line.
Chicago is off a 2-1 win at Minnesota as a +165 Dog and they are 15-10 on the PL after a win.
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WOW...#1 CBB & #1 MM LY! FRIDAY 5% MARCH MADESS!: $35.00
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March Madness Bonanza, UNDER $6 A DAY!
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Dwayne Bryant
College Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play UNDER in NCAA Tournament games if the total is at least 147 and one team is coming off a conference win as an underdog.
Applies to both Queens NC and Purdue.
17-3 (85%) since 3/17/2022, staying UNDER by an average of 8.9 points!
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40-15 73% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP SIDE: $25.00
Fresh off last night's NBA winner on New Orleans, Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.09 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Top Side play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 40-15 record, good for a money-making 73% winners since the ...
40-15 73% ANGLE | 4% NBA LATE SIDE: $25.00
Fresh off last night's NBA winner on New Orleans, Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.09 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Late Side play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 40-15 record, good for a money-making 73% winners since th ...
11-2 85% ANGLE | 4% NCAA TOURNEY TIP: $25.00
Dwayne is #2 ALL-TIME at WagerTalk in college basketball profit.On Friday, DB has two strong NCAA Tournament plays. This first huge play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 11-2 record since the 2018 season, good for an elite 85% winners. This highly successful angle has covered the spread by a comfortable average ...
Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play UNDER if the total is at least 220, it's at least Game #42, one team owns an average scoring margin between +3 and +7 points per game and is off a game in which there were at least 255 total points scored, and today's opponent owns an average scoring margin between -3 and +3 points per game.
Applies to Minnesota.
36-13-1 (73.5%) since the 2021 season.
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40-15 73% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP SIDE: $25.00
Fresh off last night's NBA winner on New Orleans, Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.09 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Top Side play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 40-15 record, good for a money-making 73% winners since the ...
40-15 73% ANGLE | 4% NBA LATE SIDE: $25.00
Fresh off last night's NBA winner on New Orleans, Dwayne Bryant continues to dominate the NBA:#1 in NBA profit this season at +96.09 units#1 in NBA profit last season at +84 unitsToday’s huge 4% NBA Late Side play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 40-15 record, good for a money-making 73% winners since th ...
11-2 85% ANGLE | 4% NCAA TOURNEY TIP: $25.00
Dwayne is #2 ALL-TIME at WagerTalk in college basketball profit.On Friday, DB has two strong NCAA Tournament plays. This first huge play is backed by a powerful situational angle that has produced a dominant 11-2 record since the 2018 season, good for an elite 85% winners. This highly successful angle has covered the spread by a comfortable average ...
Ralph Michaels
College Basketball
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(755) Wright State at (756) Virginia: Spread
Virginia -17.5 (-118)
Top 3 seeds in round #1, with 4+ days rest adn a total under 148 are 25-6 (81%) ATS
They went 2-1 yesterday with Duke being the loss.
Wright St has played the #250 schedule and this is the biggest line of theri season.
They have been a Dof of more than +7 only two previous times, both in November, covering at Cal and losing by 25 pts at Butler.
This is the FIRST top 60 off they have aced (UVA #27) and the fist top 60 D (UVA #16)
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WOW...#1 CBB & #1 MM LY! FRIDAY 5% MARCH MADESS!: $35.00
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March Madness Bonanza, UNDER $6 A DAY!
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Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(575) Boston Celtics at (576) Memphis Grizzlies: Spread
Boston Celtics -15.0 (-114)
System Performance:
The system indicating that home underdogs of +3 and higher who have covered their last game, are seeking revenge for a loss by 20+ points, and are facing a team coming off a game as a double-digit favorite has a record of 42-73-5 (37%).
Boston Celtics Performance:
Recent ATS Success: The Celtics are currently on an 11-5 (69%) ATS run, showcasing a strong ability to cover spreads recently. They achieved a 21-point win against Golden State on Wednesday.
Performance as Favorites: They have an impressive 21-7 (75%) ATS record as double-digit away favorites since November 18, including a 17-5 (77%) record when they have at least one day of rest.
Memphis Grizzlies Performance:
Recent Win Context: Memphis comes off a 125-118 win against Denver as a 12.5-point home underdog but note that this was a makeup game where Denver played with no rest.
Underperformance as Underdogs: The Grizzlies are 3-9 (25%) ATS as underdogs of +2 or higher following a win.
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FRI CBB/NBA DUO! #1 IN PROFIT IN 2026 (*98 UNITS)!: $29.00
#1 YTD (+98 UNITS)! #1 NBA 2026! FRIDAY NBA PLAY OF DAY AND CBB BEST BET!Jeff had a rare winless Thursday dropping his all-sports runs 74-39 (66%)! This package includes both his NBA Play of the Day and his March Madness Play of the Day which is only his fifth Best Bet side since mid-February!While Jeff's CBB volume is low he is 24-16 (60%) ...
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March Madness Bonanza, UNDER $6 A DAY!
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How would you like to finish the College Basketball season paying UNDER $6 A DAY?!? There is still a TON of College Basketball action to go and the March Madness Bonanza Special will include: The rest of College Basketball Regular SeasonConference TournamentsNCAA Tournament through the National ChampionshipAny plays released in the National Invita ...
Pavlos Laguretos
Soccer
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Estrela vs Casa Pia
Portugal, Friday, 4:15pm ET
Play: Penalty Kick Awarded
Odds at Time of Release: +225
Line Parameter: Line good to +200
Going for a value bet here, taking a Penalty Kick to be Awarded at +225. Several reasons for that, starting with the referee, who has awarded 10 Penalty Kicks in 10 league matches, and 14 in 18 in all competitions.
2024/25: 5 Penalty Kicks in 17 matches
2023/24: 10 Penalty Kicks in 13 matches
2022/23: 9 Penalty Kicks in 18 matches
These are very good stats for Penalty Kicks, but always keep in mind that we live in the age of VAR.
Team stats are pretty solid for Penalty Kicks, with Estrela having 5 Penalty Kicks FOR and 9 AGAINST in 26 matches. Casa Pia have 4 Penalty Kicks FOR and 9 AGAINST. Plus, we saw two penalty kicks in the reverse fixture that produced 8 goals.
Take 2% on Penalty Kick Awarded (+225 FD), line good to +200
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4% SOCCER SIDE BET (63% WINRATE SINCE AUGUST): $25.00
63% WINRATE IN 4% SIDES SINCE AUGUST (12-7)Pavlos has identified a bookie mistake in Europe on Friday and is investing 4u on this team to not lose (+0.5 Spread). Hitting 4% Sides on a 63% winrate since August (12-7) and looking to add another winner on Friday. Some weekend plays are already loaded for All Acess clients. Good luck and now is the bes ...
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1822-1529-66 ATS (55%), while moderate NBA favorites are 776-599-29 ATS (56.4%) following three consecutive games in which they scored 105 or more points. Let’s also note that double-digit road favorites are 390-316-15 ATS (55.2%), including 192-104-6 ATS (64.9%) following the All-Star break when they have a non-division game on deck. Since 1999, NBA road favorites of -9 or greater are 183-125-8 ATS (59.4%) versus opponents with the same amount of rest after the All-Star break. Boston falls into a profitable 1330-1023-42 ATS (56.5%) NBA Road Favorite system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain road favorites of greater than three points. Finally, the Celtics find support in a profitable 341-211-12 ATS (61.8%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 229-139-5 ATS (62.2%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Lay the points with the Boston Celtics as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.
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3-PACK CBB TOTALS PAYDAY | 67-38 (64%) RUN | 107-68 CBB RECORD | 33-16 TOP PLAYS | +93.3 UNITS L/35 DAYS: $29.00
RED-HOT 67-38 (64%) OVERALL RUN | #1 HANDICAPPER L/35 DAYS (UNITS & WIN %) | TORRID 104-68 COLLEGE HOOPS RUN!Jeff Keim is on a RED-HOT 67-38 (64%) overall run, and on Friday, he is STEPPING OUT with a POWERFUL 3-PACK of NCAA Basketball Totals Winners—all backed by sharp money indicators, tempo-driven analytics, and proven high-level systems! ...
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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Off back-to-back wins at Washington, the Pistons will attempt to hold on to first place in the Eastern Conference without Cade Cunningham for the foreseeable future. They host Golden State tonight in which we’ll take shooting guard Duncan Robinson over 11.5 points. In eight games without Cunningham this season Robinson has averaged 15.9 points per game including a 14 point effort last night on 5-10 shooting. When these two teams met back on January 30 in San Francisco Robinson scored 15 on 5-11 shooting with the Warriors allowing the most points per game to shooting guards over the last 30 days. Sure, Robinson has been known to have dud performances like his one-point effort in Toronto last Sunday, but that was with Cunningham in the lineup and he particularly looks sharp when Cunningham can’t be relied upon like usual. Another interesting data point about Robinson is that he averages 13.4 points per game at home which is 3.1 points more than he averages in road games and shoots 9% better from three point range at home as well compared to away. With Cunningham sidelined and the Pistons needing consistent outside shooting, let’s take Robinson over 11.5 points in Detroit tonight.
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**5% MAX** NCAA 1ST RD LEGEND (EARLY BLOWOUT!) - FRIDAY: $35.00
H-O-T! The GoldSheet delivered a 3-1 Wednesday, moving to 11-5 (+16.91) the past five days. The Madness really gets going now and this is when The GoldSheet shines brightest.For the past seventy years, TGS's top-rated releases have earned "legendary status" among bettors. That tradition continues strong in 2026. All plays rated 4% or ...
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Steve Merril
College Basketball
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Utah State had a terrific season, and they come into this game with a 28-6 record. The Aggies have an impressive out of conference win on their resume; they beat VCU who just beat North Carolina on Thursday. Utah State owns an efficient offense that doesn’t rely on making 3’s, and that gives them a nice matchup edge in this game against a weak Villanova interior defense. The Wildcats are not an overly talented team compared to years past, and some of their non-conference results were unimpressive. Villanova likes to play extremely slow, but they take a lot of 3’s and don’t get to the free throw line enough. Utah State is simply the better all around team, so lay the short price in this game on Friday afternoon.
Play UTAH STATE (-).
-------------------
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NCAA TOURNEY **BEST BET** TOTAL: $25.00
Steve Merril doesn’t release many college basketball totals, so when he does you need to TAKE NOTICE! Steve is HOT right now - 83% (5-1 ATS) on Thursday, and he’s releasing a BEST BET total for Friday that you don’t want to miss - Get on this EASY TV WINNER right now - Guaranteed Over/Under that will CRUSH YOUR BOOK!Special Offers:Buy 3, Ge ...
Drew Martin
College Basketball
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Backing Utah State at the short price over Villanova. Utah State was the Mountain West Conference regular season and tournament champions, coming in winning and covering three straight games. A heavy junior and senior roster, combined with being the best shooting team in the conference makes for a solid bet this time of year.
Villanova is banged up entering the Tournament, tough travel spot out to Southern California. This team has struggled recently going just (2-5) their last 7 games against the spread. Also, they struggle on the free throw line. In the #8 vs #9 seeded matchup for Friday's free pick- Bet Utah State.
I went into more detailed analysis on the NCAA Tournament Show…..
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SMASHING BOOKIES to the tune of 41-23 (64%) for (+71% PROFIT) All 4/ 5% sides. MONEY PRINTING 16-7 (70%) Friday HEATER (+35% PROFIT). Longterm, 122-94 (57%) Overall for (+77% PROFIT) last 216 client picks. This is a premium client 5% "Max Limit" package, the highest rated pick possible with detailed written analysis inside. Cash in! OR Ge ...
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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_______
Projected winner: Brewers
Team
Win %
Fair American odds
Book odds
Value vs book
Brewers
53%
-113
-110
Small value on MIL (+3 cents)
Diamondbacks
47%
+113
-110
Negative value on ARI (-23 cents)
Projected score: Brewers 5, Diamondbacks 4
Milwaukee has the clearest starting-pitching edge available pregame because of Jacob Misiorowski as the Brewers’ starter while Arizona’s starter is still undecided. Misiorowski’s spring line entering this game was 1-0 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.1 IP, and 12 strikeouts, and MLB had already flagged him as one of Milwaukee’s rotation locks with a realistic path to an Opening Day start.
On batter form and lineup quality, Milwaukee looks a bit stronger. MLB’s projected 2026 lineup has Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Yelich, Vaughn, Frelick, Rengifo, Mitchell, and Ortiz, and MLB noted this is mostly the same core that ranked second in MLB in OBP and third in runs scored last season. Arizona’s projected lineup is solid with Perdomo, Marte, Carroll, Moreno, Arenado, Santana, Smith, Lawlar, and Thomas, but Carroll is coming off a broken hamate and MLB noted the DH spot is still unsettled during camp.
Spring form is more favorable to Arizona overall, which is why I only make Milwaukee a narrow favorite. Spring standings show Arizona at 12-12 with 141 runs scored and 170 allowed, while Milwaukee was 10-14 with 122 scored and 122 allowed. Arizona also had the slightly better recent form, but Milwaukee’s cleaner run-prevention profile plus the better-known starter narrows that gap fast.
Bullpen skill is close, but I lean slightly Arizona in late innings. MLB’s projected D-backs bullpen includes Kevin Ginkel, Jonathan Loáisiga, Paul Sewald, Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson and others, while MLB described Loáisiga and Brandyn Garcia as impressive this spring. Milwaukee’s projected group has Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, Angel Zerpa, Grant Anderson, DL Hall and others, but MLB emphasized there were still “a ton of decisions” to make with that staff.
Betting value
Brewers -110: slight value
Diamondbacks -110: no value
My fair line is basically Brewers -113 / Diamondbacks +113, so Milwaukee is only a small lean.
Most likely script
Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the better chance to win the first few innings.
Arizona’s home lineup keeps pressure on and likely scores enough to make this competitive.
Milwaukee’s deeper top-to-middle lineup is the tiebreaker in a spring game with short starter usage.
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Don Buster
College Basketball
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We play Akron here as at the time of this writing DK has this at 8 1 /2 with a little extra juice. This is where we want to be even if it goes higher before game time we have our number. The Zips have won 10 straight games and we see them giving Texas Tech a really close game. Maybe even a shocking OR victory. Texas Tech has played ok without J.T. Toppin. However they were 3-3 without him and now have lost 3 straight. Two teams coming here playing in opposite directions. There is no doubt the Akron defense could struggle but their offense does enough to keep them in the game. They do average 88.4 points per game which is good for 7 TH in the nation. We believe they will come inside this lofty number.
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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High Point showed that they are no joke on Thursday, beating Wisconsin outright as double digit dogs. The Panthers have won 31 games this season and hold the nation’s longest winning streak at 15. They put up 90 per contest and rank top 5 in both offensive and defensive turnover percentage. Chase Johnston was electric off the bench against the Badgers, making an off balance 3-pointer from the logo and going 4 for 6 from deep, with some really clutch shots to close out the game. Arkansas is a great team, they’re just running into a tough matchup against a squad that can really light it up. Whether the Panthers can get the SU win remains to be seen, but we’ll happily put them in our pocket catching double digits once again. Take High Point.
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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Missouri will be playing in their home state when they take on Miami in the first round on Friday. The Tigers will hold a significant size advantage in this matchup, and already come in at 38th in offensive rebounding percentage. Led by Mark Mitchell, Mizzou is also 32nd in 2-point shooting percentage and they defend inside as well.
What a turnaround it’s been for Miami, who won just 7 games a season ago. Coach Jai Lucas brought in a mixture of Freshman and transfers, completely overhauling the roster for what has been a very successful season. This game will come down to who wins the battle on the boards and free throw shooting, as both squads are terrible at the charity stripe. Expect Mitchell to have a big game as the Tigers move on the to 2nd round. Take Missouri.
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Oskeim Sports
College Basketball
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The NCAA Tournament has not been kind to Mountain West Conference teams, as these teams have posted a 24-44 SU (35.3%) and 19-35 ATS (35.2%) record in the Big Dance since 2012, losing by an average margin of -4.0 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -3.4 points per game. Even more alarming is the fact that college basketball teams coming from high elevation campuses are 25-83 SU (23.1%) and 26-50 ATS (34.2%) in the NCAA Tournament, losing by an average of -8.1 points per game and falling short of market expectations by an average of -4.8 points per game. More specifically, Utah State is 1-8 SU and 1-5 ATS (16.7%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, failing to cover the spread by an average of -11.4 points per game. Utah State falls into a very negative 117-150 ATS (43.8%) college basketball system that invests against certain neutral-site teams with 25 or more wins, provided they aren’t favored by three or more points. This situation is 53-80 ATS (39.8%) since the beginning of the 2023-24 season. More importantly, these 25-plus win teams are 85-114 ATS (42.7%) in the NCAA Tournament, including 29-50 (36.7%) since 2023. Grab the point(s) with the Villanova Wildcats as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.
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Oskeim Sports
College Basketball
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Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.4% of the time (272-186), improving to 61.7% (166-102) since 2021, with games averaging 2.9 points below the total. Since 2019, Big Ten Conference teams are 29-12 to the Under (70.7%) in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, including 20-5 UNDER (80%) since 2022, going under by an average margin of -5.2 points per game. Similarly, ACC underdogs of less than five points are 26-15 to the Under (63.4%) since 2013, including 19-10 UNDER (65.5%) since 2016, going under by an average margin of -4.3 points per game. Iowa possesses a mediocre offense ranked 207th in the nation in Points Per Game (75.2%), 112th in 3-Point FG% (35.7%), 358th in Rebounds (26.8), and 309th in Offensive Rebounds (7.6). The Hawkeyes will struggle to score against an above-average Clemson defense ranked 19th in Points Per Game Allowed (66.7), 47th in Field Goal Percentage Allowed (41.9), and 60th in Rebounds Per Game (29.6). The Tigers are also challenged offensively, ranking 237th in Points Per Game (74.1), 148th in Field Goal Percentage (148th), and 182nd in 3-Point FG% (34.1). Finally, both teams employ methodical offenses that utilize the shot clock. Specifically, Iowa ranks 361st in Pace (Pace = Possessions / 40 Minutes), while the Tigers rank 307th (65.6). Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.
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Bryan Leonard
College Basketball
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761 Santa Clara & Kentucky in St Louis
Kentucky has really struggled this season against good basketball teams, and this Santa Clara team ranks 46th in our rankings. The Wildcats have gone 4-6 straight up down the stretch, and never really lived up to previous editions. Which is why we find them here as a low priced favorite, despite the nationally known basketball program. They are just 9-12 ATS when installed as a favorite this season.
The Broncos of Santa Clara are 26-8 on the season, 17-4 in the West Coast Conference. While Kentucky played better at home this year, the Broncs have been a very good road team. After playing St Mary's and Gonzaga the past two games, the Broncos won't enter here intimidated.
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Oskeim Sports
College Basketball
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Akron has won ten straight games and earned its third consecutive NCAA tournament berth. However, since 2004, single-digit college basketball underdogs coming off ten or more consecutive straight-up wins are 111-88-2 to the Under (55.8%), including 93-70-1 UNDER (57.1%) since 2014. This situation is 36-22-1 to the Under (62.1%) in the NCAA Tournament since 2012, going under by an average of -3.0 points per game. Since 2017, Round 1 of the NCAA tournament has hit the Under 59.2% of the time (264-182), improving to 61.7% (158-98) since 2021, with games averaging 2.8 points below the total. Since 2016, first-round games featuring totals of 149 points or higher have gone 39-22-1 to the Under (63.9%). Additionally, early round matchups with totals of at least 135 points have gone 161-119-2 to the Under (57.5%), including 116-70 UNDER (62.4%) since 2017. Texas Tech falls into a profitable 139-113-1 (55.2%) college basketball totals system of mine that dates to 2015 and invests on the under in certain late-season games involving teams on an extended ATS losing streak. Finally, the Red Raiders are backed by a 523-419-7 (55.5%) totals system that favors the under when teams with eight or fewer losses face opponents with an average ranking better than seventeenth nationally. This situation is 251-190-2 to the UNDER (56.9%) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Take the Under in the Akron/Texas Tech game as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, March 20.
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Marco D'Angelo
College Basketball
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Let’s start with what’s going to confuse people — a 9-seed favored over an 8-seed, and a Mountain West team laying points to a Big East team.
Right away, the public is going to say Villanova is “free money.” Mountain West teams have struggled in the tournament for years, and the brand name plus conference perception will push bettors in that direction. But when something looks that easy, it usually isn’t. That’s the trap.
People love to lean on seeding and conference labels, but the oddsmakers — the ones taking real money — are telling you Utah State is the better team. And that’s what matters.
The Mountain West’s past tournament failures? Irrelevant to this specific Utah State team. This year, the Mountain West only sent one team — and it was clearly their best.
Meanwhile, the Big East wasn’t exactly deep. After UConn and St. John’s, it dropped off into a group of pretty average teams.
The public will back Villanova based on name recognition and conference bias. I’m not falling for it.
TAKE UTAH ST
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Will Rogers
College Basketball
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[FREE PICK] on Queens Nc ATS | Good until +23.5.
Everyone loves a good underdog story in March, and while this would take a big effort to pull off outright, Queens shouldn’t be overlooked. The Royals have good size across the lineup with multiple wings, which helps them match up better with Purdue than people might expect. We’ve already seen the Boilermakers fall to a lower seed in this tournament before, so the upset factor is always in play. Queens is also a very efficient offensive team, ranking No. 15 in effective field goal percentage. If they start hitting from deep, they can hang around. Purdue can score a ton as well, but they’ve had some tighter games earlier in the season against mid-major teams with strong offenses, including wins over Oakland by 10 and Akron by 18. Taking the points is the right play.
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Kyle Anthony
Mixed Martial Arts
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Free Play: Shem Rock (+110)
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Ralph Michaels
College Basketball
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(755) Wright State at (756) Virginia: Total
Total Under 145.5 (-110)
Round #1 games with a total 128+ are 57-94 (36.5%) O/U
Virginia is 13-20-1 O/U this season with the #271 tempo and #354 defensive tempo.
The Cavs are 3-11 O/U as a Fav of -12 & higher.
Wright St's offense is #228 avg a shot every 17.9 seconds.
The Raiders are 3-8 O/U vs non-conf foes
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Ben Burns
College Basketball
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Who can forget the 2023 NCAA Tournament when #16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson stunned #1 seed Purdue 63-58? FDU became the second-ever 16-seed to beat a 1-seed. It marked the second consecutive year that a double-digit seed eliminated the Boilermakers. (St. Peter's beat them in 2022.)
The Boilermakers learned their lesson. They took care of business in the first round each of the past two seasons. Two years ago, they beat Grambling by 28, eking out a cover as a 27-point favorite. Last season, they won by 12, while laying eight points against High Point. This year provides another favorable first round opponent as Purdue is matched up against Queens University.
The Royals faced some decent teams this year as they played Auburn, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Virginia and Villanova. The problem is that they lost those games by 41, 28, 38, 25 and 20, an average of 30.4 points per game. With memories of 2023 still fresh in the minds of Purdue fans, the Boilermakers should keep the pedal to the metal the whole way and win by 25+. *Good up to -25
Ben Burns is the #1 College Basketball Handicapper Of All-Time.
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