Key Situational Angle:

Play AGAINST road teams with a win percentage between 60% and 75% that have covered at least 8 of their last 10 games.

Applies to the Lakers.

50-28-1 ATS (64.1%) since the 2022 season.

Released/revised 15 minute(s) ago

Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3149-2125 (59.7%; +2.7% ROI). Ottawa is coming off a 5-2 win over the Maple Leafs on Saturday, while the Rangers enter off a disappointing 3-2 loss to Winnipeg yesterday. Those scheduling dynamics are significant because NHL favorites of less than -200 are 1587-990 (61.6%; +3.9% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 541-309 (63.6%; +7.6% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Even better, .501 or greater rested favorites are 1080-539 (66.7%; +4.4% ROI) versus unrested opponents, including 414-174 (70.4%; +6.7% ROI) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Moreover, .501 or greater road favorites of -150 or greater coming off a win are 522-245 (68.1%; +3.0% ROI) versus .499 or worse conference opponents, including 421-192 (68.7%; +3.3% ROI) since the beginning of the 2011-12 season. Since 2003, NHL favorites averaging three or more goals per game coming off two or more consecutive games allowing two or fewer goals are 566-380 (59.8%; +1 ROI) since 2003, including 252-156 (61.8%; +2% ROI) since the beginning of the 2021-22 season. Finally, since 2003, NHL road favorites with fewer than three days of rest are 2359-1556 (60.3%; +2.0% ROI) with a road game on deck. Take the Ottawa Senators as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, March 23.

Released/revised 32 minute(s) ago

(41) Ottawa Senators at (42) New York Rangers: Moneyline

2% Regulation Ottawa Senators -120

HD of +125 & higher with no rest vs rested foe are 41-122 (25%) with -31.5% ROI

If game #60 and later the unrested HD is 7-35 (16.7%) with -57% ROI

Rangers 1-10 with no rest (win with both teams no rest)

NY is 4-20 at Home with a total of 6 and higher.

Senators are 8-2 vs opp with no rest. They are 3-0 Away winning by a combined score of 16-5.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

(547) Brooklyn Nets at (548) Portland Trail Blazers: Spread

Portland Trail Blazers -14.5 (-112)

• System Performance:

  • Home favorites of -3 or higher coming off an away loss, facing a team off a road game with both teams having no rest, has a solid historical record of 26-10 (72.2%) ATS.

  • Another relevant system states that double-digit home favorites with both teams playing on back-to-back nights have an ATS record of 32-16 (67%)..

• Portland Trail Blazers Performance:

  • Recent Road Trip: The Trail Blazers are returning home after a 5-game road trip, where they went 3-2. Despite losing their last game, they have performed well, going 6-2 (75%) ATS as a favorite after a loss. This indicates their ability to bounce back and cover in competitive matchups.

  • Strong Home Performance: Since late December, the Blazers have an impressive record of 14-6 (70%) overall, including 7-2 (78%) as home favorites, showcasing their effectiveness in this role.

  • No Rest Success: Portland is 5-2 (71.4%) as a favorite with no rest, indicating they can maintain offensive effectiveness despite fatigue.

• Brooklyn Nets Performance:

  • Recent Struggles with Rest: The Nets are struggling significantly with a 2-10 (16.7%) record with no rest, including 1-7 ATS on the road. This trend indicates they struggle to perform effectively when having played the night before.

  • Issues as Underdogs: Brooklyn has a poor record of 2-10 (16.7%) ATS as an away underdog of +9 or higher since January 21.
    

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

The Spurs look to make it six straight wins tonight as they play in Miami against a Heat team looking to snap a four-game losing streak. We’ll look at backup point guard Dylan Harper going over 10.5 points with the Heat allowing the third most points per game to point guards over the last 15 days and ninth most to the position on the season. Harper got the spot start in their last game against the Pacers with both Stephon Castle and Devin Vassell sidelined due to injuries. Both are currently questionable at the time of this writing for tonight as Harper scored 24 points on 9-13 shooting in their absence. The second overall pick in 2025 is averaging 13 points per game in March on nearly 58% shooting and when these two met in San Antonio way back on October 30th Harper had 13 points on 5-10 shooting. The Heat run at the fastest pace of any team this season which will equate to more possessions all around and although Miami sits sixth in defensive rating this season, the rank just 25th in defensive rating over their last five games. With that, let’s take Harper to score over 10.5 points tonight in Miami against the Heat as the Spurs look to continue their winning ways.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

The Spurs, who won an early season meeting at San Antonio, come in as the hotter team. They've won five straight games, while Miami has lost four in a row. The Heat are still fighting hard though - Saturday's 1-point loss at Houston came at the buzzer. While the Spurs are great (24-11) on the road, the Heat are very nearly as strong (23-13) on the road. Miami has injury issues but the same is true of SA. Prior to an October loss at SA, the Heat has won eight of the past nine in the series, including each of the past five. They need this game and should give their guests all they can handle. (good at +4 or better)

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Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

[FREE PICK] on Purdue - ATS | Good until -9.5.

Texas enters the Sweet Sixteen as the only double-digit seed left, thanks largely to its ability to win close games late. However, I think that it's going to be different this time around. The Longhorns have had issues defending the three-point line, which is a dangerous weakness against a Purdue team that thrives from deep. The Boilermakers rank No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 8 in three-point shooting, giving them a massive advantage with the ball in their hands in this game. If Purdue finds its rhythm, it should be able to exploit Texas all game long. Add in a solid defensive performance, which the Boilermakers are most definitely capable of, and this could turn into a blowout.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

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For Dodgers vs. Angels on Monday, March 23, 2026 PT at Dodger Stadium the expected pitching matchup is Roki Sasaki vs. Reid Detmers.

Projection

Projected score

Why

Sasaki is the harder pitcher to model because his spring has been shaky enough that outside reporting called it a “challenging spring,” but the Dodgers are still lining him up as a real regular-season piece. That gives him a wide band: elite bat-missing upside, but more blow-up risk than a typical Dodgers starter.

Fair odds

My projected win probability:

• Dodgers 63.8%

• Angels 36.2%

Converted to fair moneyline:

• Dodgers -176

• Angels +176

Book comparison

A current market snapshot showed roughly Dodgers -160 / Angels +140 for this game.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

1. Game context

   • This is a KBO preseason game: starters are often shorter than regular-season outings, and managers are more willing to bridge with multiple pitchers. Hanwha manager Kim Kyung-moon explicitly said Ryu Hyun-jin and Wang Yan-cheng will both pitch, with Wang stretched toward about 80 pitches, and only around two relievers expected afterward. That materially reduces Hanwha bullpen exposure relative to a normal spring game.

   • NC’s official page still listed the March 23 starter as TBD, but manager comments reported by MyDaily/Nate said Kim Tae-gyeong was the current favorite to take that turn.

2. Recent form

   • Hanwha entered this game off two straight spring losses to Lotte, 12-6 and 10-6, after scoring 13 and 7 in the prior two games; NC entered off back-to-back losses to KT, 8-2 and 6-2. That leaves Hanwha’s offense warmer than NC’s, but Hanwha’s recent run prevention weaker.

   • 2026 preseason standings had NC 4-5-1 and Hanwha 4-6-0, so neither team had dominant spring form overall.

3. Probable starters and leash

   • Hanwha starter modeled: Ryu Hyun-jin. His 2025 KBO line was 3.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 139⅓ IP, 122 K, 25 BB. Because he just returned from the WBC, where he threw 3.0 IP/50 pitches vs Taiwan and 1⅔ IP/40 pitches vs Dominican Republic, I trimmed his likely spring outing to about 3.0–3.1 IP even though the manager left the exact limit to him.

   • NC starter modeled: Kim Tae-gyeong. His 2025 line was rough: 10.64 ERA, 2.45 WHIP in 11.0 IP, with 20 H and 9 BB allowed. That profile supports a short leash of roughly 3⅓ IP in this spot.

4. Pitcher-vs-opponent signal since 7/1/2024

   • Um Sang-back faced NC on April 18, 2025 and July 3, 2025, allowing 4 ER in 5.0 IP and 3 ER in 3⅔ IP respectively. Since today’s Hanwha plan is now Ryu/Wang, Um games only as a loose indicator that the NC core can scratch runs against Hanwha right-handed starters, but not as the main pitching baseline.

5. Likely lineups used for projections

   • NC has recently used a spring top/middle including Kim Joo-won, Park Min-woo, Park Gun-woo, Davidson, Kim Hwi-jip, Lee Woo-sung, Kim Hyung-jun, Kwon Hee-dong, Choi Jung-won.

   • Hanwha has recently used Oh Jae-won, Peraza, Moon Hyun-bin, Roh Si-hwan, Kang Baek-ho, Chae Eun-seong, Ha Ju-suk, Heo In-seo, Sim Woo-jun.

6. Bullpen condition / usage

   • Hanwha’s own manager effectively telegraphed a lower-stress bullpen plan for this game because Ryu + Wang are expected to cover most innings.

   • NC used a fuller bullpen chain on March 22 against KT after Koo Chang-mo threw only 2.0 IP, then went through six relievers. That raises NC’s late-game run-prevention risk slightly.

7. Run model

   • Baseline spring total from recent form and context: 8.6 runs.

   • Hanwha offense adjustment: +0.6 for stronger recent top-six and weaker projected NC starter.

   • NC offense adjustment: -0.3 for facing Ryu first, then Wang length, plus cooler spring environment.

   • Bullpen adjustment: +0.4 Hanwha / -0.1 NC because NC likely leans on more exposed middle relief while Hanwha should get longer bridge work from Wang.

   • Final projected scoring:

     • F5: Hanwha 2.8, NC 1.8

     • Full game: Hanwha 5.2, NC 4.1

1) Projected score chart

2) Starting pitcher projection chart

Modeled bulk/bridge note: Hanwha’s run prevention after Ryu assumes Wang Yan-cheng covers roughly 3.0 IP before the late relievers, because Hanwha’s manager explicitly said Ryu and Wang would share the game and Wang could go up to around 80 pitches.

3) Projected hitter stat chart

NC projected hitters

Hanwha projected hitters

4) Moneyline chart from projected score only

Bottom line:
F5 Hanwha 2.8 – NC 1.8
Final Hanwha 5.2 – NC 4.1

The biggest edges in the projection are Hanwha’s starting-pitching plan (Ryu + Wang) and NC’s shakier projected first arm / bullpen path.

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Projected starting pitcher boxscore

Fried’s 2025 road split was basically neutral for strikeouts: 101 K in 17 road starts = 5.9 K/start, almost identical to his full-season 5.9. His raw 2025 day/night split leaned much better in night games (119 K in 18 starts = 6.6 K/start) than day games (70 K in 14 starts = 5.0 K/start), but because this opener starts at 5:05 p.m. local time, I treat it as a twilight start rather than a full night-game boost. San Francisco also struck out 24.7% of the time vs left-handed pitching in 2025, but MLB’s projected Opening Day lineup notes that the arrival of Luis Arraez adds elite contact to a group that still has swing-and-miss from Devers, Adames, and Chapman, so I give only a modest opponent bump. Fried’s final spring tune-up came on March 19, when he threw 81 pitches over five innings and said he was ready for Opening Day, so I do not dock him for fatigue or injury, though I still apply a tiny “Opening Day leash” trim. Oracle also remains a generally pitcher-friendly environment in recent park-factor coverage, and the forecast is cool and clear, which modestly helps run prevention and leash stability.

Official projection: Max Fried 5.6 strikeouts

Wager & Probability Analysis (Model-Driven)

Fair-odds read

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago