Free Sports Predictions APR 27: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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Tokyo Brandon MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(907) Tampa Bay Rays at (908) Cleveland Guardians: F5 Total
Date/Time:
Play:
F5 Total Under 4.0 (102) Action

Two pitchers who dominate the batters they face today and one team in a huge flat spot.

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Score projection

TBR

CLE

Total

1st 5 innings

1.8

2.2

4.0

Full game

3.6

4.0

7.6

TBR baseline offense: 132 runs in 27 games, .258/.335/.394, .729 OPS. CLE baseline offense: 118 runs in 29 games, .231/.319/.380, .699 OPS. TBR starts higher on raw offense, while CLE receives the home-field edge but gets a small returning-home flat-spot deduction after finishing in Toronto.

Parker Messick receives the strongest starter upgrade: 2026 profile of 3-0, 1.76 ERA, 29 K, plus stronger contact control than ERA-only regression would show. Against TBR in the 2025 window, Messick produced 13.0 IP, 12 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, which pulls TBR’s first-five expectation down.

Steven Matz is projected shorter and less clean: 2026 line of 3-1, 4.81 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25 K. Removing the 2024 CLE outing from the pasted matchup history leaves 4.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K versus CLE since 3/1/2025.

TBR’s recent offense is stronger: 50 runs over the last 10 games with a .728 OPS sample. CLE’s last-10 offensive form grades slightly lower at 44 runs and roughly .708 OPS. Weather is cool but not extreme; cold April night air trims home-run carry slightly, while no-bottom-9 probability trims CLE’s full-game mean by about 0.1 run.

Projected final: CLE 4.0, TBR 3.6
Projected 1st 5: CLE 2.2, TBR 1.8

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Jesse Schule NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(563) Minnesota Timberwolves at (564) Denver Nuggets: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 224.0 (-110)

This is a free play on the under.

The Timberwolves aren't getting much respect from the bookmakers after the injuries to Divincenzo and Anthony Edwards. I am not sure I would bet the Nuggets here as double digit favorites, because the defense of Rudy Gobert is still the biggest problem for Jokic and Denver. All four games in this series have gone under, and three of the four have gone under this number. I like Denver to win and extend the series, but I don't think their offensive struggles are going to completely disappear.

GL,

Jesse Schule

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Teddy Covers NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(565) Detroit Pistons at (566) Orlando Magic: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 215.5 (-112)

Take Detroit - Orlando UNDER (#565-566)

The 'Daily Double' video below features my take for the OKC - Phoenix AND Detroit - Orlando in Game 4 action tonight. Here's a brief synopsis of why I expect the Pistons - Magic game to stay UNDER the total. As playoff series progress, it becomes harder and harder to execute efficiently on the offensive end of the court -- both teams have seen everything their opponent can throw at them. Detroit has shut down Orlando for extended stretches in the second half of Game 2 and Game 3. The Pistons have yet to score more than 105 in any game in this series, going Under their team total in all three previous contests. I expect another relatively low scoring physical affair in Game 4, primed to cash Under bets once again tonight. Take the UNDER.

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Rob Veno NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(707) Minnesota Timberwolves at (708) Denver Nuggets: Series Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Series Denver Nuggets 119

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(707) Minnesota Timberwolves at (708) Denver Nuggets: Series Moneyline (Quick Notes Analysis Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Series Moneyline

Play: Series Denver Nuggets 119

Date/Time: Mon Apr 27 - 10:30 pm EST

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Minnesota @ Denver

Rare opportunity to take legitimate shot with team down 3-1 in a 7 game series

Circumstances leave Minnesota without their starting backcourt for remainder of this series

Amount of offensive production lost in all facets is extremely significant

Limitations now to Minnesota depth also substantial

Denver has home game Monday and 2 of the 3 potentially remaining are on their floor

Play here hinges on Nuggets winning in Denver on Monday & then getting 1 road win against shorthanded Minnesota

Probability of Ayo Dosunmu 43 point repeat and Minnesota wearing down a bit defensively each point toward Denver

Denver likely fired up even more now after Game #4 ending and they are a proud veteran group

Strong number of advantages make this play worth a shot at + price AND if Denver wins Game #5 potential to secure profit will exist

PLAY: Denver +119 To Win Series

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Steve Merril MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(911) Seattle Mariners at (912) Minnesota Twins: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Seattle Mariners -130 Luis Castillo (RHP), Connor Prielipp (LHP) Must Start

Seattle starter Luis Castillo projects to give up 2.2 runs with a 3.33 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.  Minnesota’s lineup has hit just .195 (22-113) with a weak .573 OPS against Castillo in his career.  The Twins will start Connor Prielipp.  The lefty projects to give up 2.6 earned runs with a 4.43 ERA and 1.42 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Seattle’s favor, look for the Mariners to get a solid road win in this game on Monday night.

Play MARINERS (-).

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Ross Benjamin NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(561) Oklahoma City Thunder at (562) Phoenix Suns: Spread
Date/Time:
Play:
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City comes up as a heavy road favorite, and they have a commanding 3-0 lead in the series and won by a decisive average of 20.0-points per contest. The current total for tonight's Game 4 is 214.5. Oklahoma City has gone 5-0 SU&ATS on the road this season when total was between 210.0 to 219.5. Their average point-spread during those 5 contests was -8.8 and they had a huge +19.2 points per game differential. Since the start of the 2023-2024 NBA season Oklahoma City has gone a very good 5-1 SU&ATS during their games played at Phoenix.

NBA Playoffs away favorites of between -8.5 to -15.0 that have a 3-0 series lead have gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2016. Those 9 away teams' average point-spread was -10.8 and they had a massive +24.9 points per game differential.

Bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder as a point-spread favorite of -12.0 or lower.

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Drew Martin MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
St. Louis Cardinals 115 Dustin May (RHP) Must Start

Taking the Cardinals over the Pirates to start off this week's action on the diamond. St. Louis starter Dusty May has been really sharp his last three times out. Letting up just 3 runs over his last 17 plus innings and only issuing 2 free passes. The righty has shown signs of dominating throughout his career, particularly when he has kept his walks down. Up against a cold Pittsburgh lineup this should be another solid outing for the hard throwing hurler. This one just missed today's client card. For Monday's free pick- Bet the Red Birds at the plus price.

4% MONDAY MLB MONEY LINE BIG BET (70%) $$

Free Pick Recap: 8-3 (+5.63 units)
Saturday- Padres (+100) WINNER
Friday- Tigers (-130) Loss
Thursday- Padres/ Rockies over 11 (-110) WINNER
Tuesday- Pirates (+100) Loss
Monday- Cubs (-102) WINNER
Saturday- White Sox/ A's over 9.5 (-115) WINNER
Friday- Brewers/ Marlins over 8.5 (-105) WINNER
Thursday- Rockies (+146) WINNER
Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
Wednesday- Cubs (+122) WINNER
Tuesday- Diamondbacks (+135) WINNER

Client Hot Streaks:

7-3 (70%) Overall Run L 7 Days.

🔥 9-2 (82%) All weekday MLB sides (+29% PROFIT).

⚾️ 53-36 (60%) MLB 3%+ sides (+76% PROFIT) L 10 months.

Today’s MLB Betting Show:

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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(563) Minnesota Timberwolves at (564) Denver Nuggets: Rudy Gobert Points + Rebounds
Date/Time:
Play:
Rudy Gobert Points + Rebounds Under 21.5 (-121)

Good to -125

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Bryan Leonard MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(907) Tampa Bay Rays at (908) Cleveland Guardians: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 7.5 (-105) Steven Matz (RHP), Parker Messick (LHP) Must Start

908 Tampa Bay at Cleveland

Both teams have gotten off to better hitting starts than we projected, ranking 10th and 16th in wRC+ on the season. But we know the true value in these two teams are defense and pitching. And we expect to see a lot of that in this series. Steven Matz is a crafty veteran who should find success here against this limited Cleveland offense. While Parker Messick is long past his near no-hitter letdown. He wasn't the same in his last start after throwing all those pitches, but it wasn't a bad start at all. That puts these two starters at a solid advantage over the bats in this one.

PLAY UNDER

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Carmine Bianco NHL Tab NHL Hockey

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Event:
(25) Vegas Golden Knights at (26) Utah Mammoth: 1P Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
1P Utah Mammoth -105

NHL - Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth

Game Thoughts: This is a first period 2-way moneyline play. Utah lead this series 2-1 and will try and take a stranglehold on it with a win tonight and they've used good starts in the opening 20 minutes to fuel this leading. They have yet to trail after 20 minutes (2-0-1) and during the regular season they were 7th best and trailed after 20 minutes in only 10 of 41 home games. The Knights were the leagues worst 1st period team with 11 leads, 17 games trailing, 14 games tied.

The play is Utah Mammoth -105 First Period Moneyline

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Bryan Power MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(915) New York Yankees at (916) Texas Rangers: Spread
Date/Time:
Play:
Texas Rangers +1.5 (-115) Max Fried (LHP), Jack Leiter (RHP) Must Start

I think we may see the Yankees' offense "cool off" a bit here in Arlington - where visiting teams are averaging just 2.92 runs per game this season. The Yanks, who just had an eight-game win streak snapped Sunday, go from facing a horrendous Astros pitching staff that has the highest bullpen ERA to a Rangers staff that not only allows the fewest number of runs per game at home but also has the lowest bullpen ERA in all of MLB.

The Yankees are already averaging about a full run per game less on the road than they do at home.

Because Texas is dead last in scoring at home (2.75 rpg) and has the weaker starter here, we will grab the +1.5 on the run line as they should - at least - keep it close in what promises to be a low-scoring game.

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Jeff Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Pittsburgh Pirates -130 Action

(901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates: Moneyline

2% Pittsburgh Pirates -130 Action/ downgrade @-150

St. Louis Cardinals Performance Analysis:

  • Current Form: The Cardinals are currently 14-13 after experiencing a rough patch, losing 4 straight games, including a sweep at home against the Mariners.

  • Struggles in Series Openers: St. Louis has faced challenges in the first game of a series, going 2-6 in such matchups, with a 1-3 record when playing away.

  • Dustin May's Performance: While Dustin May's season statistics are poor, it is noted that he has pitched significantly better in his last 3 starts. However, the Cardinals’ bullpen remains a concern, with a 5.25 ERA and 1.486 WHIP, which could lead to issues in late-game situations.

Pittsburgh Pirates Performance Analysis:

  • Recent Shutout Loss: The Pirates are coming off a shutout loss at Milwaukee, bringing their record down to 16-12 for the season. However, they have exhibited resilience, as they have won 10 straight times off a loss this season, averaging wins of 6.0 to 2.0 during these outings.

  • Strong Performance as Favorites: Pittsburgh has been effective as a favorite this season, posting an 11-4 record. Their two losses in this category have come against left-handed starters.

  • Bullpen Excellence: The Pirates’ bullpen has a solid 3.017 ERA and 1.315 WHIP for the season. In their last 9 games, they have been outstanding, posting an impressive 0.86 ERA and 0.905 WHIP. This level of performance gives the Pirates confidence that they can maintain leads and close out games effectively.

System Trends:

  • Relevant Systems:

    • System #1: Division home favorites of -120 or higher with a 55%+ win percentage coming off a loss as an away underdog have a strong historical record of 57-25 (70%).

    • System #2: Home favorites coming off a shutout loss as an away underdog hold a 43-24 (64.2%) record.

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Oskeim Sports NHL Tab NHL Hockey

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Event:
(25) Vegas Golden Knights at (26) Utah Mammoth: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Vegas Golden Knights -115

Utah won the first NHL playoff game in Utah, defeating the Golden Knights 4-2 on Friday for a 2-1 series lead. The Knight’s loss is significant because NHL road favorites of less than -200 are 1078-651 (62.3%; +9.2% ROI) with same-season revenge. Let’s also note that NHL playoff road favorites of -180 or less coming off a loss are 104-57 (64.6%; +13.8% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win. Since 2003, NHL conference road favorites of less than -250 are 3181-2155 (59.6%; +2.6% ROI), while NHL playoff road favorites are 246-159 (60.7%; +5.9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2003-4 season. I also like the fact that Vegas is 253-157 (61.7%; +6.2% ROI) as conference favorites of less than -320 in games with totals of 5.5 to 6 goals. The line in this game is significant because NHL road teams priced between -110 and -120 are 598-328 (64.6%; +22% ROI) versus opponents priced between -101 and -110. Finally, since 2002, NHL road favorites with two days of rest are 834-477 (63.6%; +7.1% ROI) versus opponents with two or fewer days of rest. Take the Vegas Golden Knights as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, April 27.

DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD

• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 124-86 | +75.2
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 43-27 (61.4%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 95-66 (59%)
• 62% NHL Winners All-Time

Released/revised 22 hour(s) ago

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2-PACK NBA PAYDAY | #1 BASKETBALL (UNITS): 95-66 | 60% NBA WINNERS ALL-TIME | AUTO-PLAY ALERT!: $29.00

On Monday, Jeff Keim is STEPPING OUT with an exclusive 2-Pack of NBA Winners backed by amazing 144-80 ATS and 54-22 ATS systems!DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 124-86 | +75.2• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 43-27 (61.4%)• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 95-66 (59%)• 34-23 (60%) in the NBA All-TimeMARKET EDGE. DISC ...

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Oskeim Sports NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(561) Oklahoma City Thunder at (562) Phoenix Suns: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 213.5 (-110)

Since 1996, NBA road favorites of 5 points or more in games with totals over 210 are 339-211-18 to the Over (61.6%) following a game that went over the total, provided one additional parameter is satisfied: going over the total by an average margin of +4.0 points per game. The point spread is significant in this game because non-division conference NBA games with double-digit spreads are 616-510-31 to the Over (55%), including 412-327-11 OVER (55.8%) since 2019. Moreover, double-digit NBA favorites are 230-181-8 to the Over (56%) from Game 76 forward, including 151-107-1 OVER (58.5%) since 2021, going over by an average of 3.4 points per game. Similarly, double-digit conference underdogs in games with totals under 220 points are 108-82-4 to the Over (56.8%), including 61-38-3 OVER (61.6%) since 2023. Finally, since 2015, Round 1 NBA home underdogs by more than 3 points are 22-13-3 to the Over (62.9%), including 17-8-1 OVER (68%) since April 27, 2018, covering the total by an average of 5.5 points per game. Take the Over in the Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, April 27.

DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD

• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 124-86 | +75.2
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 43-27 (61.4%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 95-66 (59%)
• 60% NBA Winners All-Time

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

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2-PACK NBA PAYDAY | #1 BASKETBALL (UNITS): 95-66 | 60% NBA WINNERS ALL-TIME | AUTO-PLAY ALERT!: $29.00

On Monday, Jeff Keim is STEPPING OUT with an exclusive 2-Pack of NBA Winners backed by amazing 144-80 ATS and 54-22 ATS systems!DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 124-86 | +75.2• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 43-27 (61.4%)• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 95-66 (59%)• 34-23 (60%) in the NBA All-TimeMARKET EDGE. DISC ...

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Andy Lang NHL Tab NHL Hockey

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Event:
(23) Philadelphia Flyers at (24) Pittsburgh Penguins: Sidney Crosby Shots On Goal
Date/Time:
Play:
Sidney Crosby Shots On Goal Over 2.5 (-154)

Crosby has been automatic in this spot — 3+ shots in every game this series and 8 straight against the Flyers. The consistency is exactly what you want when playing SOG props.

The role backs it up too — he’s getting steady volume with around 5 shot attempts per game and is locked in on the top power play unit, giving him extra opportunities. Even with Pittsburgh not generating a ton of team shots, Crosby’s usage and involvement keep him clearing this number consistently.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

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Oskeim Sports NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(573) Portland Trail Blazers at (574) San Antonio Spurs: Spread
Date/Time:
Play:
San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (-115)

Portland arrives in San Antonio for Game 5 off back-to-back losses, and Round 1 road underdogs coming off consecutive defeats are just 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%) since 2012. The total is lower than in the last two games, which matters because NBA playoff favorites are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) in Game 5 with totals of 220 or less, provided the totals have dropped from each of the previous two games. Portland is installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game in this series, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 264-352-13 ATS (42.9%). The team’s respective records are noteworthy because NBA favorites of -9 or greater with seven or more overall wins over their opponents are 148-93-3 ATS (61.4%) since 1998. San Antonio’s defense will be critical in Game 5, as the Spurs are 45-10 SU and 36-17-2 ATS when limiting opponents to fewer than 115.5 points per game. San Antonio is ranked eighth in the NBA in points allowed per game (111.5), while the Trail Blazers rank 16th in scoring offense (115.5 PPG). Finally, the Spurs fall into a profitable 249-191-6 ATS (56.6%) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests on NBA playoff teams that possess certain ATS margins. Lay the points with the San Antonio Spurs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 28.

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Dwayne Bryant NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(563) Minnesota Timberwolves at (564) Denver Nuggets: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 222.0 (-110)

Key Situational Angle:

Play OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 220, one team is rested and has been beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent on exactly one days rest that has beaten the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games.

Applies to Denver.

21-2 (91.3%) since the 2009 season, going OVER by an average of 12.8 points!

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

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Pavlos Laguretos SOC Tab Soccer

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Event:
(208133) Argentinos Juniors at (208134) Huracan: 3-Way Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Draw +183

Huracan vs Argentinos Jrs
Argentina, Monday, 8pm ET

Play: Draw
Odds at Time of Release: +183
Line Parameter: Line good to +170

Penultimate match for the Apertura for these two, and they are both playoff-bound, with a Draw here not hurting anyone in particular. Huracan have a huge match coming up, but if they manage to not lose their L/2 matches, they have good chances to make the playoffs. This is a match-up that has given us 4 Draws in L/5, and 9 Draws in L/12 matches in all competitions. 3 of L/4 in this venue and 5 of L/7 also ended in Draws. And at this point in the season, teams are primarily looking to not lose, so the Draw is definitely worth a shot on Monday.

Take 1.5% on the Draw (+183), line good to +170

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

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Ralph Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(915) New York Yankees at (916) Texas Rangers: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
First Inning Over +0.5 (-113) Jack Leiter (RHP) Must Start

(915) New York Yankees at (916) Texas Rangers: Total

First Inning Over +0.5 (-113) Jack Leiter (RHP) Must Start

The NYY are4-1 NRFI and 7-3 YRFI in their L10 road games

Texas is 7-2 & 12-3 YRFI
Did not list Fried, but he has allowed a first-inning run twice,

Leiter is 3-2 YRFI with a 4.97 ERA

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

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MLB RUN 25-8-3 (76%)! ••  NRFI ARE 15-6 (71%)! •• INCLUDES 24-2 SITUATION!•• Ralph went 1-1 on MLB first inning play Sunday, making his overall All-Sports run  99-68-1 (60%) since January!•• Ralph's MLB First Inning plays are now 15-6 (71%) this season!•• All MLB plays are 25-8-3 (76%) while going 21-7 (75%) on MLB total ...

THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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The Gold Sheet NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(561) Oklahoma City Thunder at (562) Phoenix Suns: Jaylin Williams Points + Rebounds
Date/Time:
Play:
Jaylin Williams Points + Rebounds Over 7.5 (-123)

Jalen Williams is set to miss his second straight game tonight for OKC as they look to complete the sweep of the Suns on the road tonight. We’re going to take Jaylin Williams over 7.5 points + rebounds as he should see an uptick in minutes again due to Jalen Williams’ absence. He notched 21 minutes in Game 3 after just 21 minutes combined across Games 1 and 2 while accumulating 14 points + rebounds in the 121-109 win. In games Jalen Williams has missed this season Jaylin Williams averages 14.3 points + rebounds per game and coincidentally enough has averaged 14.3 points + rebounds per game in three head-to-head regular season matchups while averaging 23.7 minutes in those games as well. He was the leading rebounder off the bench for the Thunder as it’s worth noting that this player prop is blowout proof because even if the Thunder are up a ton and put in all the reserves, Jaylin Williams would be one of those primary forwards or even the center which he has played at times during the regular season due to injury situations this season. With that, let’s take Jaylin Williams over 7.5 points + rebounds in a closeout game for the Thunder tonight at Phoenix.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

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Jimmy Adams MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(909) Boston Red Sox at (910) Toronto Blue Jays: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Toronto Blue Jays -138 Action

The Red Sox organization is in complete disarray right now, with Alex Cora and 5 other coaches being let go and the players not necessarily agreeing with the move. Boston was able to pick up the win on Sunday, but now they head to Toronto to face Dylan Cease, who hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his 5 starts this season. Cease has struck out 12 batters on two different occasions, the most recent being in his latest outing against the Angels. We have not seen the same dominance we’re used to seeing out of Ranger Suarez, who has yielded 4 earned in 3 of his 5 starts. Take the Blue Jays.

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Bruce Marshall MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(907) Tampa Bay Rays at (908) Cleveland Guardians: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Tampa Bay Rays 125 Action

The Rays look to have shifted gears, on a season-best four-game win streak after sweeping out the Twins on the weekend, and the pitching staff excelling, allowing only six runs across the surge.

Tonight, Steven Matz will try to match the recent work of his Tampa Bay pitching comrades, and should be primed after a rare shaky effort vs. the Reds, which came in the heels of three solid efforts. The challenge is Cleveland starter Parker Messick, impressive in each of his outings, though the Guardians offense slowed to a crawl in weekend losses at Toronto. Play Rays on Money Line

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

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Hakeem Profit NBA Tab NBA Basketball

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Event:
(565) Detroit Pistons at (566) Orlando Magic: Spread
Date/Time:
Play:
Detroit Pistons -2.5 (-115)

Dating back to 2002, Round 1 underdogs of less than 5 points are just 2-11 SU / 3-10 ATS after shooting 45% or better from three in a win as a dog. Even more telling, those same teams are 10-3 to the team total under in that spot.

That’s a strong signal of shooting regression after an outlier performance.

Now apply that here. You’ve got a team that ranks bottom five in three-point percentage on the season, coming off a game where they shot lights out, facing a top five defense. That’s not a recipe for repeat success, it’s a setup for a correction.

The Magic are also just 3-7 SU/ATS this season after shooting 45% or better from deep in their previous game, reinforcing the idea that these spike performances don’t carry over.

Bottom line: expecting Orlando to duplicate that level of shooting is unrealistic. Regression is the far more likely outcome.  This game will look like game 2 where Detroit bounced back holding Orlando to 83 points.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

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NBA PROFIT PLAY: $25.00

Hakeem is now up +166.7 units in the playoffs since 2023 and off to a 8-1 start this year, after closing the regular season +32.42 units.That’s not a short-term run—that’s sustained, proven profit across both the 82-game grind and the intensity of playoff basketball.This play is also backed by a 5-0 league-wide situation dating back to 2015, ...

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Ben Burns NHL Tab NHL Hockey

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Event:
(23) Philadelphia Flyers at (24) Pittsburgh Penguins: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 5.5 (-120)

Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to Game 4: "The Penguins are down 3-0. The last time that a team rallied from a 3-0 deficit was in 2014, when the Kings rallied to come back against the Sharks. That was just the fourth time in NHL history that it happened. While the Pens' chances of winning the series are now very slim, they won't go down without a fight. It's possible that they'll be facing the Flyers' back-up goalie as starter Dan Vladar is a game-time decision. Either way, I expect them to find a way to score some goals. They'll need to as the Flyers are averaging 3.7 goals per game in the series. If trailing, given its situation, we'll see Pittsburgh pull its goalie earlier than normal. Play the Over 5.5 "

The Penguins never had to pull their goalie but they did indeed fight and score some goals. Their final goal in a 4-2 win came on the Flyers empty net. That makes seven of the past 10 meetings which have produced at least six combined goals. I feel that Monday's Game 5 has a strong shot at doing the same. Play the Over 5.5 

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