Free Sports Predictions SEP 2: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

ROYALS ML vs MIAMI

The Royals lost last night but have the right guy on the mound tonight in Noah Cameron. He's been fantastic for the Royals, who have been playing their best baseball over the last month. The Marlins are a team that can hit right-handed pitching, which they did last night, but can't hit left-handed pitching. I don't see the Marlins scoring many runs in this game, and I like the Royals in a bounce-back spot with the right pitcher on the mound at the right price. Back the Royals.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Los Angeles Dodgers (ATS) || Good until -1.5, -130.

Pitching Matchup: Undecided/Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Action).

I honestly don't care who's pitching for the Cardinals tonight. They stole game one of the series on Tuesday and I don't anticipate them winning again in this series. Yamamoto gets the start for LA. He's allowed just four runs over his L4 appearances. The Dodgers still managed to score eight runs yesterday despite the loss. Go with the Dodgers tonight.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Take Miami-FL- Stanford OVER (#153-154)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below also offers my take for Michigan State - Toledo on Friday Night (as well as Miami - Stanford)

Miami lost a pair of first round edge rushers off their defensive line to the NFL in the offseason.  Last year in Miami, the ‘Canes held Stanford to a single TD and eight first downs.  This year in Palo Alto, I’m expecting the Cardinal to move the football, just like they did last week against Hawaii.  Its worth noting that Stanford is expected to have at least two of the three starting offensive linemen who missed last week’s game; a strong unit up front facing a Miami defensive front replacing multiple first rounders.  Miami starting QB Darian Mensah was a stud in two years starting at Tulane; the skill position talent around him remains ‘national championship contender’ caliber.  In Week 1, the betting markets tend to love Unders, expecting defenses to be ahead of offenses early.  Not this game!  Take the OVER

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Adding breakdown soon...

Free Play: Klaudia Sygula +106

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

South Carolina has an excellent opportunity to overwhelm Kent State because the talent disparity between these rosters is substantial on both sides of the ball. South Carolina enters 2026 determined to fix an offense that completely fell apart around quarterback LaNorris Sellers last season, ranking outside the top 100 nationally in PFF’s team rushing, receiving, pass-blocking and run-blocking grades. Former TCU offensive coordinator Kendal Briles takes over with the mandate to maximize Sellers’ dual-threat ability and immediately improve a unit that dramatically underperformed its talent level. South Carolina has made a concerted effort to improve the offensive line around Sellers, adding transfers Jacarrius Peak from North Carolina State, Carter Miller from UCF and Hank Purvis from Purdue to strengthen protection and create more consistent running lanes. Peak is the centerpiece of that rebuild after earning an 84.1 PFF pass-blocking grade last season, the 11th-best mark among all tackles nationally. However, head coach Shane Beamer announced on Tuesday that Peak (knee) would not play in the Gamecocks’ season opener. Better protection should give Sellers more time to push the ball downfield and maximize his rare physical tools. His elite arm strength, nearly 240-pound frame and speed have helped him force 88 missed tackles, the most by any Power Four quarterback since the start of 2024.

Kent State returns only 39% of its defensive production (ranked 77th nationally in overall experience), creating additional concerns against an experienced quarterback like Sellers. In contrast, South Carolina ranks 5th in the country in overall experience, with 69.8% of last year’s total yards returning (11th) and 126 career starts along the offensive line (4th). The Gamecocks enter the 2026-27 campaign ranked 5th in Returning Production (68% overall), per Bill Connelly’s metrics, whereas Kent State checks in at 87th. With coach Beamer potentially facing increased pressure if the offense fails to rebound, expect an aggressive effort to establish Briles’ system and generate confidence against an overmatched Kent State defense that finished just 120th in defensive SP+ last season.

Kent State's overall profile remains one of the weakest in the FBS, as the Golden Flashes finished 130th in SP+ in 2025 despite improving to 5-7. Kent State ranks 128th in SP+ this season, including 125th offensively and 127th defensively, with an average projection of just 3.9 wins. Those numbers are especially concerning against an SEC opponent that can control the line of scrimmage and force Kent State into obvious passing situations. South Carolina’s defensive front features one of the nation’s most disruptive talents in edge rusher Dylan Stewart, whose elite athleticism and explosiveness give the Gamecocks a major advantage against Kent State’s offensive front. Despite battling a late-season back injury, Stewart improved significantly against the run, posting a 79.0 PFF run-defense grade that ranked seventh among qualified SEC edge defenders. When healthy, the potential 2027 top-10 NFL Draft pick should create consistent pressure, disrupt Kent State’s running game and make it extremely difficult for the Golden Flashes to sustain drives. Coach Beamer announced on Tuesday that Stewart would not see the field on Saturday.

There is also a broader issue of conference strength, as MAC teams went just 1-25 against Power Four opponents last season. From a technical standpoint, college football favorites of -28 or greater are 125-1 SU and 72-52-2 ATS (58.1%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, while home favorites of greater than -30 are 64-0 SU and 40-22-2 ATS (64.5%) in season-openers versus FBS foes, covering the spread by an average margin of 3.1 points per game since 2014. Let’s also note that SEC teams are 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in their season-openers versus non-conference opponents, covering the spread by an average of 2.8 points per game since 2016. After last year’s four-win disappointment, South Carolina has every incentive to use this opener to establish confidence rather than simply survive against an inferior opponent. With Sellers directing the offense, a massive advantage in overall roster talent and favorable mismatches along both lines of scrimmage, lay the points with South Carolina as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

930 Miami at Kansas City

Eury Perez takes the hill in KC tonight, a player we really like. But three of his worst six starts of the season came against the American League.

The Royals are only 1 1/2 games behind the Tigers in the effort to avoid last place in the AL Central. The Royals are on a 12-3 run as they continue to play with heart down the stretch. Noah Cameron has been terrific as of late, allowing two earned runs or less in six of seven starts. Only the Dodgers were able to find any success against the Royals southpaw. With Miami having a 90 wRC+ on the season vs lefties, we like the price of the home squad in this one.

PLAY KANSAS CITY

Fresh off a 4% release yesterday that cashed by 17 1/2 runs. We are releasing five plays at Wagertalk, including a 4% selection. Now on a 29-13 run on 4% and higher plays. Join the #1 All-Time Baseball Net Profit Leader on hump day.

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Last September, Cleveland made an improbable run to the playoffs by going 20-7 over their final 27 regular season games. I'll tell you right now that I'm not as high on my hometown team's chances this year, even though they've won 9 of their last 11 games including a 6-1 victory over Toronto in the series opener last night. An offense that's scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this season is too difficult to trust.

Tonight, that 28th ranked offense faces Dylan Cease. Cease is currently 2nd in AL Cy Young odds (trailing only New York's Cam Schlittler) and is tied for the league lead with 217 strikeouts. On the road this season, Cease is 7-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He's allowed three runs or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts overall. So it seems pretty reasonable to expect Cease to shutdown this Guardians lineup.

Now the Blue Jays are one of two teams to have scored fewer runs than the Guardians this season. Last night, they were held to just three total bases! That loss leaves them 2.5 games back of Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot. So it's getting to be desperation time for last year's American League Champs. Being able to bet them at this price, with their best starter on the mound, seems like the right play to me.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Minnesota owns a 152 wRC+ (52% above the league average) against righties at home over the last two weeks.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

1) Play OVER on all teams where the total is 8 to 9.5 after 2 straight wins by 6 or more runs against an opponent off 3 straight losses by 4 or more runs. Applies to Minnesota. 27-13 (67.5%) since 2015, going OVER by an average of 2.5 runs.

2) Play OVER when the total is 8 to 9.5, one team scored 2 or fewer runs in their last game, and their opponent scored at least 8 runs in 2 straight games. Applies to Detroit. 76-33 (69.7%) since 2023, going OVER by an average of 1.9 runs.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Auburn.

These two teams are trending in opposite directions. Alex Golesh takes over at Auburn, and he brings with him several star players from last year's South Florida team. Baylor was one of the worst teams in the BIG12 last season, and they bring in DJ Lagway to replace Sawyer Robertson at QB. Dave Aranda is on the hot seat, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first head coach to be fired in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

(923) New York Yankees at (924) Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers Strikeouts

Reid Detmers Strikeouts Over 6.5 (-136) Home Listed Pitcher Must Start

Detmers Strikeout Prop Analysis

Supporting Factors

• The Yankees rank second in MLB with 432 strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season.

• They have recorded:

  • 71 strikeouts over the past seven days, the most in MLB

  • 142 strikeouts over the past 15 days, just one behind the league high

  • 10 strikeouts last night

  • 46 strikeouts in their last four road games

• Detmers averages 1.12 strikeouts per inning this season and 1.16 K/IP at home.

• He has thrown at least 82 pitches in every start, giving him a relatively secure workload floor.

• He has completed 26 innings over his last four starts, or roughly 6.5 innings per outing.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Tampa Bay has significant advantages on the mound and at the plate in this contest. Shane McClanahan has been outstanding at 10-6 with a 3.19 ERA, and he has been even better at home with a 2.55 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .184 batting average.

Shane McClanahan’s 2026 Metrics

• 3.19 ERA, 4.17 xERA, 3.42 FIP, and 3.98 xFIP

• 8.2 K/9 and 22.1% K%

• 3.03 BB/9 and 8.2% BB%

• 0.72 HR/9 and 7.5% HR/FB

New York counters with Justin Hagenman, who has yet to pitch this season after posting a 4.56 ERA last year. The Rays put the ball in play better than anyone, ranking first in fewest strikeouts, which should place immediate pressure on an inexperienced Hagenman. Tampa Bay’s lineup is supported by Junior Caminero, who has recorded at least one hit in 15 consecutive games, and Yandy Diaz, who ranks third in baseball with 159 hits. Tampa Bay leads the majors with a .261 batting average, while the Mets are hitting only .235 and rank last in baseball with a .305 on-base percentage. The Rays also have the superior bullpen and staff profile, with a 3.75 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, compared with New York’s 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

New York has also struggled badly in this venue, losing nine of its last 10 games at Tropicana Field. The Rays are 201-98 (67.2%; +2.7% ROI) as home favorites of greater than -150, 410-270 (60.3%; +6.1% ROI) in home affairs with totals of fewer than nine runs, and 449-315 (58.8%) following a win, whereas the Mets are 35-84 (29.4%; -33% ROI) as underdogs versus left-handed starters, losing by an average margin of 1.6 runs per game since 2018. Let’s also note that the Rays have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 evening games against National League opponents, while the Mets have failed to cover four of their last five as underdogs. With McClanahan’s dominance at home, Tampa Bay’s substantial offensive advantages, and New York’s uncertainty on the mound, take the Rays as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, September 2.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

That rejoicing you might have seen on Tuesday from Angels fans at the Big A was the news that despised owner Arte Moreno is selling the team to Rams/Avalanche/Arsenal etc owner Stan Kroenke. It didn’t help the Halos in last night’s 7-3 los to the Yankees but suddenly there is light at the end of the tunnel for this long-suffering fan base.

Also at the end of another tunnel for Angels batters tonight is Yanks starter Cam Schlittler, who has allowed only three runs across his last four starts and a Bob Gibson 1968-like 1.13 ERA across that span. Yet the best pitcher in the AL since the All-Star break has been Angel Reid Detmers, with a 1.55 ERA his last eight starts. Pitching duel in Anaheim! Play Yankees-Angels “Under”

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

On the home underdog Wednesday night in Wrigley Field. The Cubs bats have been smoking hot and we are looking to cash a nice plus price ticket behind David Peterson. The Cubs starter has been great recently, pitching to the tune of a (2.35 ERA) since the 4th of July. He has also been excellent against the Milwaukee lineup, letting up just 3 runs in his last 24 innings against them. This one just missed the Wednesday 2 pick client card. For today's free pick- Bet Chicago.

46-26 (64%) all sides L 2 months (+43% PROFIT).

#1 ranked handicapper overall L 365 days (profit).

🚨 EARLY WEDNESDAY 2 PACK BIG BETS MLB (46-26) $$

Released/revised 18 hour(s) ago

The Yankees need to keep winning if they’re going to have any chance of catching the Rays in AL East, and having Cam Schlittler on the mound against the 53 win Angels puts them in prime position to pick up another win today. Schlittler is fresh off 5.2 innings of shutout baseball and has given up a total of 3 runs over his past 4 starts. New York also has the best bullpen in baseball in terms of ERA. The Angels have lost 8 of 9 and while Reid Detmers has pitched well, Anaheim has a bad pen and the offense has been limited to 3 runs or fewer in 5 of their past 6 games. Take the Yankees -1.

83.3% (5-1) MLB BEST BET RUN! (4% or higher)    

71-40 MLB RUN!

113-65 MLB RUN!

+95 UNITS SINCE MAY 5^TH IN MLB!

15-7 MLB 5% TOP PLAYS THIS SEASON!

21-10 5% TOP PLAY RUN!

DON'T MISS TODAY'S 5% TOP PLAY!

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

Milwaukee starter Jacob Misiorowski projects to give up 2.3 runs with a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Chicago’s lineup has hit just .125 (8-64) with a weak .390 OPS against Misiorowski in his career.  The Cubs will start David Peterson.  The lefty projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a 4.82 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Milwaukee’s favor, look for the Brewers to get a solid road win in this game on Wednesday night.

Play BREWERS (-).

-------------------

Special Offers:
Last Call for Summer: Buy 3, Get 3 FREE - Just $69
Get the Rest of the Year for $799 - Save $696
Get a Full Year of Steve Merril for $99/Month, Plus Market Call LIVE!
FREE Week (7 days) Premium Live Odds, Injuries, Scores: OddsLogic.com/SM

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Tokyo Brandon is +134.43 units in 2026  
💵Get 6 days all-access for the price of 3! Click here ➡ wt.buzz/tb

📊Become a member for every NFL and MLB player projection: click here

-- -- -- -- -- -- --

There are some pretty solid pros for Giants–Pirates UNDER 8.5 today (Sept. 2), even after last night’s ridiculous 13-12 game. In fact, that 25-run explosion may be giving us a slightly better number than the underlying matchup deserves. The current market I found has Under 8.5 around -124, with Landen Roupp vs. Jared Jones listed as the probable starters.

The biggest positive is Roupp. His season ERA is 4.25, but his recent form has been better than that number suggests. In his latest start against Arizona, he allowed 1 run over 5 innings, and earlier this season he held Pittsburgh to 1 run over 4 innings. That gives him a reasonable pathway to keeping Pittsburgh around 2–3 runs through six innings.

Jared Jones is the more volatile side, but his raw stuff still supports an under. He has swing-and-miss ability and recently threw six perfect innings against Atlanta before Pittsburgh removed him. His overall ERA is elevated, but the upside is clearly there when his command is right.

The other major factor is Pittsburgh's offense before last night's eruption. Going into this series, the Pirates had scored only five runs over their previous five games and finished August just 10-15. Last night's nine-run third inning was obviously enormous, but it's dangerous to extrapolate one bizarre game into a genuine offensive breakout.

There is also a strong regression angle from last night. Giants–Pirates somehow went from an expected Webb/Skenes pitching duel to 25 total runs, including a nine-run Pirates inning and five-run Giants eighth. That's about as extreme an outcome as you'll see. Neither offense suddenly became elite overnight.

Why I like 8.5 specifically

You have some cushion:

My rough projection is:

Pirates 4.0
Giants 3.4
Projected total: ~7.4 runs

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

Take Georgia Tech (#146)

The 'Daily Double' video below offers my take for Colorado - Georgia Tech and Illinois - UAB on Thursday Night.

The Ramblin Wreck were able to win SU and ATS in Boulder last year despite a -3 turnover differential; outgaining Deion’s squad by +160 yards in the process.  I’m not expecting the rematch to be any closer, even with Georgia Tech breaking in a new QB and a new offensive coordinator.  The betting markets often overreact to offseason personnel losses; underestimating how prepared (and talented) their replacements will be.   The Buffs lost every road game by a TD or more last year (1-4 ATS in this role) and they’ve already suffered key injuries at WR and on the OL.  Laying less than a touchdown with the host is a legitimate pointspread bargain!  Take Georgia Tech.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Tulsa enters the 2026 season as an intriguing home underdog with the continuity and returning production necessary to challenge an Oklahoma State program undergoing a massive rebuild. The Golden Hurricane improved from 128th in SP+ in 2024 to 104th last season and are projected to climb again to 98th in 2026, continuing the upward trajectory under second-year coach Tre Lamb. Tulsa also returns quarterback Baylor Hayes, who threw for 2,158 yards as a freshman, giving the offense valuable continuity at the most important position. The Golden Hurricane rank among the national leaders in returning production, bringing back 62% overall, and Lamb supplemented that experience with an outstanding transfer class that added substantial depth at running back, receiver, and in the secondary. Indeed, Tulsa ranks 23rd in Returning Production and is one of 18 teams with a Stability Score of 15 or higher, as defined by VSIN’s Steve Makinen.

Oklahoma State may ultimately improve under new coach Eric Morris, but this remains a program coming off a disastrous 1-11 season after going winless in Big 12 play for the second consecutive year. The Cowboys have undergone one of the country's most extensive roster overhauls, replacing more than 60% of their scholarship roster and relying heavily on Morris' transfers from North Texas. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker was prolific at North Texas, but moving into a new program with so many new pieces creates legitimate uncertainty in a season opener, particularly on the road. Tulsa has already shown it can handle this matchup, defeating Oklahoma State 19-12 in Stillwater last season for its first win over the Cowboys since 1998. Any revenge angle is also muted by Oklahoma State’s upcoming home opener against Oregon, creating a classic lookahead spot. While I am certainly bullish on Oklahoma State's offensive ceiling, its roster turnover and defensive uncertainty make it difficult to justify laying a significant number on the road against an improving opponent.

From a technical standpoint, Group of Five home teams like Tulsa are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) versus Power 4 schools in Weeks 0 and 1, including 23-8 ATS (74.2%) as underdogs of six points or more. In addition, college football road favorites laying more than a field goal are 41-58-1 ATS (41.4%) in Weeks 0 and 1, including 19-33-1 ATS (36.5%) as road favorites of -12 or greater versus FBS opponents. These inflated favorites have been 7-16-1 ATS (30.4%) since 2020, failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 5.6 points per game. Finally, Oklahoma State lost its final eleven games last season (1-11 overall), which is significant because FBS teams that lost their last six games from the previous season are 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%) in season-openers, including 18-28-1 ATS (39.1%) if they ended the prior campaign with ten straight defeats.

Tulsa's combination of returning production, quarterback continuity, an upgraded transfer class, and last year's head-to-head success makes the Golden Hurricane a live home underdog. My math model favors Oklahoma State by fewer than ten points, so grab the inflated number with the Tulsa Hurricane as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

Wyoming enters Saturday’s Border War as an attractive road underdog against a Colorado State program undergoing major changes after a disastrous 2025 season. The Rams finished 2-10 overall last year (1-7 in Mountain West play) and were outscored by an average of 30.8 to 18.5 points per game. First-year head coach Jim Mora takes over a program that has enjoyed just one winning season in eight years and ranks 99th in the country in Returning Production. Even more concerning is the fact that the Rams enter the 2026-27 campaign with a Stability Score (metric developed by VSIN’s Steve Makinen) of just 3, which is telling because college football teams with a score of 0-6 are 173-217-4 ATS (44.4%) versus non-conference opponents with a higher Stability score during the first three weeks of the regular season, provided they are not favored by -30 or greater.

Wyoming’s program was revived by former head coach Craig Bohl, who retired in 2023 after leading the Cowboys to seven straight seasons at .500 or better. Jay Sawvel, the team’s defensive coordinator from 2019-22, was promoted to head coach and now enters with an improved offense led by William & Mary transfer quarterback Tyler Hughes, who followed offensive coordinator Christian Taylor to Laramie and already understands the system. The senior signal-caller accounted for 37 touchdowns throughout his four-year career and earned the starting job at William & Mary last fall, breaking out for 2,330 yards and 20 touchdowns to just three interceptions. “Hughes separated himself with the overall command of everything from the minute he got here,” Sawvel said last Monday. “The command of the whole offense and the presence that he has to everything stood out. He’s put himself in a really good spot. I feel good with where he’s at, and I think the whole team does. ... He could be really, really good.”

Hughes will have a stronger supporting cast around him, with running back Samuel “Tote” Harris and receiver Justin Stevenson among the offensive pieces capable of producing more explosiveness in 2026. Jay Sawvel’s defense remains the foundation of the team and possesses enough experience and depth in the front seven to make the Rams earn everything offensively. Colorado State’s offense struggled to move the chains last season, scoring 21 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games and getting shut out by the Cowboys. Wyoming has also controlled the recent Border War, winning four of the last five meetings, including 28-0, 24-15, 14-13, and 31-17. Let’s also note that Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last five home openers.

Technically, college football road underdogs of fewer than seven points are 842-688-28 ATS (55%), provided they have fewer than four wins on the season. These teams have been 480-379-12 ATS (55.9%) since 2017. Colorado State lost each of its final six games last season, which is relevant because college football teams that lost their final six games the previous season are just 71-99-4 ATS (41.8%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. Finally, the Cowboys apply to a near-perfect 7-1 ATS (87.5%) system that dates to 1989 and invests on certain unranked road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season in games with totals of 58 points or less. These live underdogs have covered the spread by an average of 12.8 points per game over the last two decades. With the better recent defense, greater program continuity, and a proven ability to dominate this matchup, take the points with the Wyoming Cowboys as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 5.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Off five straight wins, the Lions are red hot. They've also beaten the Alouettes five straight times. Montreal is favored for good reason though. The Als have been the best team in the league all season. They're 9-2 overall (+88 point differential) and a perfect 6-0 at home. The Lions are playing their second straight Eastern Conference road game and they're doing so on a short week. Off a rare loss, an angry Montreal team should bounce back with a win and cover.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on LOU.

The Cardinals lost four games last year, two of those losses came in overtime and another came by a single point. The only game they lost by more than three points was on the road at SMU without their starting quarterback. Jeff Brohm will have a new quarterback in 2026, bringing in transfer Lincoln Kienholz from Ohio State. Given coach Brohm's history of developing quarterbacks, the expectation is that Kienholz will be successful. Ole Miss lost Lane Kiffin, but they bring back the best quarterback and running back duo in the country. The Rebels were 11-1 in the regular season last year, and five of their first six games versus FBS teams were decided by one score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on Notre Dame Under 11.5 Regular Season Wins.

The Irish rank 4th in the AP Poll, and 1st in returning production. That doesn't mean they are going to go 12-0 in the regular season, and we saw Clemson in the exact spot last year, and they failed to live up to expectations. Marcus Freeman has a track record of losing games he should win, falling as a double digit favorite versus Northern Illinois in 2024 and Marshall in 2022. They are a 20+ point favorite versus Wisconsin in Week 1, and that game might be trickier than some think it will be. Miami, SMU and BYU are all capable of recording an upset.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

(145) Colorado at (146) Georgia Tech: Spread

Georgia Tech -6.5 (-110)

Home-field advantage at Bobby Dodd is meaningful in a season opener.

Georgia Tech returns a more stable overall roster and has a strong rushing identity.

The Yellow Jackets are expected to lean heavily on their running game under new OC George Godsey.

Their defensive front could be the biggest matchup problem for Colorado

If Tech consistently gets 4–5 yards on first down, it can control possession and keep Colorado off the field. That makes Georgia Tech -6.5 considerably more attractive

PREDICTION: Georgia Tech 31 Colorado 21

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Not known for a whole lot of flair during his head coaching stints at Wisconsin and Arkansas, Bret Bielema has done a much better job of keeping up with the times during this current run at Illinois. The Illini have gone 19-7 over the last two seasons with back-to-back bowl wins over SEC opponents. With East Carolina transfer Katin Houser now running the offense, Bielema may need to lean even more into being an offense-first football team during the first half of this season. Houser arrives in Champaign after throwing for 3,300 yards with a 65.9-percent completion percentage with the Pirates last season. Former QB Luke Altmyer gained Bielema's trust to expand the offense over the past two seasons, and that book may need to stay open because the Illini have some massive questions to answer on defense. Former defensive coordinator Aaron Henry left for Notre Dame and the Illini are only expected to return three starters on defense. Bielema attracted a top-25 class of incoming freshmen, but the transfer haul leaves a lot of questions. Safety James Finley IV arrives from Northern Illinois. Defensive linemen Darrell Prater and Isaiah Thomison arrive from Jacksonville State and Bowling Green respectively. Defensive backs Deuce Fillmore and Lavon Williams are from Georgia State and East Texas A&M respectively. Illinois opened the season against FCS-level Western Illinois last season with a closing total of 62.5. Thursday's game against UAB features a total that is a full touchdown lower than that, yet the Blazers have shown that they are capable of putting points on the board at this level. Alex Mortensen was given the full-time nod in Birmingham after Trent Dilfer's dismissal last year. Mortensen brings back redshirt junior quarterback Ryder Burton, and according to RotoWire, UAB has the sixth-oldest roster in the country with an average age of 20.8 years old. That crew will not be intimidated by a trip to a Big Ten venue to open the season. Even with the program in complete disarray last season, the Blazers still scored 24 points against Navy, 24 points against Tennessee, 31 points against Memphis, 24 points against North Texas and 18 points against South Florida. Anything in that general neighborhood will be enough to push this final score over the total.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a top 3 future bet for me. I think we see angry Bills team enter this season and obviously they have Super Bowl aspirations. This team is loaded with talent, is playing in a new Stadium, with a new coach and only has 1 team to beat in the AFC East. That is right, this division is a 2 horse race and I think we see the Pats regress. The Pats benefited from an easy schedule last year, surprised everyone and are not going to the same team as last year. The Bills have the best QB in the division, the best RB in the division and have upgraded their WR core and Oline. Their biggest issue was on defense (generating pressure) and now they have added Bradley Chubb to the mix. The bottom line here is I want an angry Josh Allen, coming off his 1st tough season in a while, in a division with only 1 other team to seriously worry about.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

For Alabama standards, it was a disappointing season in 2025, which puts a lot of pressure on Kalen DeBoer to make a big postseason run this year. Keelon Russell has been named the starting quarterback, and he’ll thrive with the investments this team has made on the offensive line. Running the football was an issue last season, but that won’t be a problem against East Carolina. The defense returns 7 starters and that unit finished 29^th in opponent EPA per play last season, against obviously much tougher competition. Blake Harrell has done a nice job at ECU, so this isn’t a knock on him or his team. Alabama is a national title contender and this is simply a case of the Pirates being out of their league. The Tide will want to make a statement at home in Week 1, especially with a new quarterback and expectations so high. Take Alabama.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on COL Under 4.5 regular season wins.

The Buffs played Georgia Tech at home last year, and despite losing the turnover battle 3-0, Georgia Tech managed to win and cover. They lost quarterback Haynes King, and they replace him with Alberto Mendoza the younger brother of Fernando Mendoza. The Yellow Jackets still have a couple studs in the backfield, and they should be running downhill against Colorado, The Buffs have been trending in the wrong direction since Travis and Shedeur went to the NFL. They are projected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the BIG12 this season, and that's bad news for their inexperienced quarterback. Deion has been using smoke and mirrors to create buzz around a program that he might just abandon if he can join his son in the NFL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Both of these teams played in Week 0. Both covered the spread, although only Eastern Michigan won straight up (28-17). Not like anyone expected San Jose State to win as they were up against USC. But it ended up being closer than the oddsmakers thought with the Spartans easily covering as 37.5-point underdogs in a 42-26 loss. It's a much shorter spread for Week 1.

Now EMU is typically a team you want to back as an underdog as 79 of their previous 110 games have either been a SU win or a one-possession loss! But in the season opener against Sacramento State, the Eagles proved they can get the job done as chalk by covering the 9.5-point spread. This is an experienced team and I like the coach (Chris Creighton). Do not be surprised if EMU is a contender for the MAC Title Game this year.

Conversely, I am not that high on San Jose State, despite the "decent" showing against USC. Keep in mind the Spartans trailed 28-0 at halftime and 35-3 after three quarters. There were three late TD drives when the game was out of reach to make things appear more competitive than they actually were. Also, early in the 1H, USC had 1st & goal at the SJSU 7-yard line and ended up turning over on downs. It's a long trip to Ypsilanti for Ken Niumatalolo's crew. Don't like the spot for them, playing the second of B2B road games on a short week. EMU moves to 2-0 SU and covers the short number.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Oklahoma enters the 2026 season with legitimate College Football Playoff expectations after winning 10 regular-season games last year, and this opener provides an ideal opportunity to make an immediate statement. The Sooners return quarterback John Mateer along with leading receiver Isaiah Sategna III, giving offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle proven pieces in an offense that should be more comfortable in Year 2 of his system. Oklahoma improved from 86th to 19th nationally in offensive SP+ last season, and nearly the entire offensive line returns, providing continuity up front. The Sooners also added receiving talent through the portal, including Parker Livingstone and Trell Harris, giving Mateer even more weapons. Defensively, Brent Venables should once again field an imposing unit after Oklahoma finished fourth nationally in defensive SP+ last season, and the front seven looks particularly difficult for UTEP to handle. The Sooners return impact defenders such as David Stone, Jayden Jackson, Kip Lewis, Owen Heinecke, and Taylor Wein, and the trench matchup will be extremely one-sided from the outset.

UTEP enters the season with substantial personnel turnover, including many new starters, making this an incredibly difficult trip to Norman to start the 2026-27 season. The historical gap between these programs has been enormous: Oklahoma is 5-0 against UTEP, outscoring the Miners 248-41 in those meetings. Oklahoma has also won 20 consecutive home openers, and the unusual Friday-night atmosphere in Norman should provide another edge for a team that has won all six of its Friday-evening regular-season games. From a technical standpoint, large college football favorites are 20-0 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in season-openers versus FBS opponents, covering the spread by an average margin of 8.7 points per game since 2012. SEC teams are 67-17 SU and 50-31-3 ATS (61.7%) in season-openers versus non-conference opponents, while UTEP is 15-31 SU and 14-32 ATS (30.4%) versus non-conference foes since 2014, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.8 points per game.

The Sooners have a massive step up in competition at Michigan the following week, so expect a focused performance designed to establish rhythm, build confidence and put UTEP away before turning their attention to Ann Arbor. Lay the points with the Oklahoma Sooners as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner on Friday, September 4.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

🔥 9-0 (100%) active CFB run (+42% PROFIT).

46-25 (65%) CFB L 365 Days (+71% PROFIT).

#1 Ranked Handicapper Overall L Calendar Year= Over (+100%) PROFIT.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago

The TB Buccaneers finished last season 8-9 and I do not expect them to do any better this year. The current W/L record sits at 8.5 and I think the under is one of the best future bets available. I will make this quick. Offensively, this team has taken a step backwards, have lost Mike Evan’s, has a mediocre WR and TE core and their run game was basically average. Not only that, but, Baker is at his best if they can establish a run and frankly, they can’t. Defensively, this team is just getting older. Their pass rush lacks consistently and their secondary is vulnerable. Last year, they were a middle of the pack D unit and they have done nothing to improve it. Interestingly, it was their crappy division that got them to the Playoffs 2 years ago, but that is changing. Both the Falcons and Panthers have improved substantially and even the lowly Saints are getting better. And as for strength of schedule, they have a tough schedule that will include the Pack, Vikings, Rams, Lions, Chargers, Cincy and Baltimore.

This team won 8 games last year, has had no major roster upgrade, has lost players, is bringing back the same QB and coaching staff and have the same weaknesses as last year. This is a team in decline and we will happily take advantage of the weak line.

Released/revised 5 day(s) ago