Free Sports Predictions SEP 19: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

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• Cam Schlittler vs. Brandon Pfaadt: Schlittler enters 14-6 with a 1.95 ERA and 228 strikeouts, while Pfaadt is 7-3 with a 3.77 ERA. That is a substantial run-prevention advantage for New York before the bullpens even enter the equation..

• Overall pitching edge: The Yankees have a 3.19 team ERA compared with Arizona's 4.09, and opponents are hitting only .223 against NYY pitching versus .248 against Arizona.

• Power advantage: New York has hit 209 HR compared with Arizona's 154. That's particularly relevant at Chase Field because one or two swings can flip the game even if the Yankees aren't stringing together hits..

• Current form: New York is 8-2 over its last 10, while Arizona has been struggling more recently. The Yankees also hammered Arizona 9-2 Friday night, scoring five runs in the first inning..

• They produced without Aaron Judge Friday: Judge is on the IL with a right calf strain, which is obviously the biggest negative for NYY, but the lineup responded with nine runs anyway. Ben Rice homered and tripled, while George Lombard Jr. also homered.

• Motivation matters: New York is 89-64 and fighting for playoff positioning/top AL wild-card position, while still chasing Tampa Bay in the AL East.

• The price isn't outrageous: FanDuel had NYY around -132, which implies about 56.9%. numberFire's current projection has the Yankees at 59.69%, equivalent to approximately -148 fair odds. So at -132 there's a modest model edge rather than simply paying a premium for the Yankees name.

The Schlittler factor is the biggest reason I like it

This is where I'd focus.

Schlittler: 14-6, 1.95 ERA, 228 K
Pfaadt: 7-3, 3.77 ERA

If Schlittler gives New York six strong innings, it significantly reduces the amount of exposure you have to random bullpen variance. And because the Yankees have the superior home-run profile, they don't necessarily need Judge to generate enough offense to win a 4-2 or 5-3 type game.

My price assessment

At NYY -132: attractive.

At -140: still playable.

At -145: reasonable, but edge is getting thinner.

At -155+: I'd probably pass or start looking at Schlittler-related props/F5 Yankees instead.

My rough projection is:

Yankees 5 — Diamondbacks 3

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Ole Miss.

Lane Kiffin was bluffing when he listed his QB as doubtful for this game. He is just putting more gas on the fire. The most hated man in Oxford Mississippi will bring a team loaded with talent, a superior roster, more freak athletes, but does that guarantee victory. The Rebels have the better quarterback, and this is a team that beat Georgia twice last year, beat Oklahoma in Norman, and went toe to toe with Miami in the Playoff Semi Final. I will take the points, and I hope I don't need them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

Heading to "The Plains" for what used to be one of the better rivalry games in college football. (One of the downsides of conference expansion). Two programs that have fallen on tough times over the last decade or so, but a situation where the winner of this game likely puts themselves square in the mix as a contender in the SEC. This has historically been a very competitive matchup, although Florida has not won at Auburn since 1999.

Even with the Tigers having the Gators number in Jordan Hare Stadium, Florida is going off as the small road favorite. Side wise I think this is a toss up, with Florida who likely has a bit more talent- However, they are on the road in a hostile environment at night making the winner outcome prediction very dicey.

The total is the angle in this one, Auburn comes in with the 3rd fastest tempo offense in the country, running a play every 21 seconds. The team sitting at #2 in tempo is Florida Atlantic who the Gators already played and the game total soared over the closing number by almost 30 points with a total of 87 points being scored. Florida's offense has looked sharp with the new offensive coordinator/ QB combo taking over. I bet they run a bit more fast pace against the best opponent they have faced.

Sometimes these SEC Conference games can bog down with defense at the forefront, which is the reason at this point in the season this bet did not make the client card. Although, I do have it finishing with a final score in the mid 50's and above. For Saturday's free pick- Bet over.

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Talked about the free play on today’s college football betting show:

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

This matchup sets up as a classic “barking dog” spot, with Rice catching more points than the matchup appears to warrant. Western Michigan’s price has been inflated by its near-upset of Michigan in Week 1, a result that gained even more attention after Michigan bounced back to beat Oklahoma.

But that Week 1 performance needs context. Western Michigan caught Michigan in its first game under a new coaching staff, and the Wolverines had a major matchup with Oklahoma on deck. The Broncos deserve credit for competing, but the market may be putting too much weight on that result without accounting for the circumstances that helped create it.

Rice’s 52-0 loss at Notre Dame looks ugly, but it came against one of the top teams in the country. Notre Dame entered the season motivated and had no reason to let up, so that final score should not be used as the sole measure of Rice’s ability.

Western Michigan’s defense also showed some concerning cracks in last week’s 49-14 win over Monmouth. The Broncos allowed the FCS opponent to generate 431 total yards, only 17 fewer than Western Michigan gained offensively. If Monmouth could move the football that consistently, Rice should be able to find opportunities as well.

The biggest factor is the schedule. Western Michigan has to travel to Rice before returning home for a marquee nonconference matchup with Boise State next week. After an emotional opener at Michigan and an easy win over Monmouth, the Broncos are in a prime look-ahead situation.

With Western Michigan potentially overpriced and facing a distraction with Boise State on deck, Rice is the live underdog getting enough points to make it the preferred side.

TAKE RICE +PTS

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

New Orleans showed plenty of resilience in its opener at Detroit. After a disastrous start that included three turnovers and no first-half points, the Saints settled down and scored on four consecutive possessions before eventually falling by a point in overtime. That second half performance looked much more like the team that finished last season playing its best football.

The Saints have quietly become one of the NFL's most reliable teams against the number. Since Tyler Shough emerged late last season, New Orleans is 7-0 ATS, including 6-0 ATS in its last six road games. Now the Saints are catching more than a touchdown against a Baltimore team dealing with some significant questions at wide receiver.

Lamar Jackson was outstanding in Baltimore's 41-23 opening victory, but rookie Ja'Kobi Lane suffered a fractured wrist while Zay Flowers is dealing with a hamstring injury. Those issues could let New Orleans focus more on slowing Jackson and Derrick Henry without worrying as much about Baltimore stretching the field.

The Ravens can certainly win comfortably, but this is a large number against a New Orleans team that continues to outperform market expectations. With Shough and the offense showing what they can do once the Week 1 rust disappeared, we'll grab the generous points.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This is a standard 2-team, 6-point Wong Teaser where we're going through the key numbers of 3 and 7.

I know the Falcons' current QB situation seems rather dire. For the second straight week, it will be Cooper Rush getting the start. This is not by choice, but rather out of necessity for 1st year HC Kevin Stefanski. Nevertheless, if there was ever an opportunity for Bijan Robinson and this Falcons offense to shine, it might be here as they face a Carolina defense that just gave up 59 points and 552 yards last week. For what it's worth, Atlanta could have won at Pittsburgh in Week 1, if not for two missed field goals and a pick six. My power ratings still make them a slight favorite at home for this NFC South matchup. So teasing up them to +8.5 makes a lot of sense to me.

For the second teaser leg, we will tease the Buccaneers down from -8.5 to -2.5. Full disclosure - the Bucs are my survivor pick for NFL Week 2. This is more about wanting to fade a Browns team that is stubbornly starting the hideous Deshaun Watson. It might be our last shot at fading Watson. If he plays poorly again (and I anticipate that he will), there's a strong chance Watson gets benched for next week's home opener. All of Watson's numbers last week vs. Jacksonville were awful. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay could have won at Cincinnati if not for four turnovers. QB Baker Mayfield will be eager to atone for that poor performance, especially against his former team, which shunned him years ago. This should get ugly. But I'd rather not lay more than one score.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

(979) Seattle Mariners at (980) Colorado Rockies: Total

First Inning Over 0.5 (-125) Bryce Miller (RHP), Jose Quintana (LHP) Must Start

Miller has a 4.19 ERA and is 2-0 YRFI with 6 YRFI in 14 starts

Sugano is 12-15 YRFI with a 5.61 ERA

Seattle is 6-1 YRFI

Colorado is 6-0 YRFI

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

I’m a believer in Ole Miss this season and believe Pete Golding can put together a quality season in the SEC. I also believe Trinidad Chambliss might be the best quarterback in the country. He’s accurate, evades the pocket in a way that can’t be taught, and doesn’t make many mistakes. That being said, I have serious concerns about the Rebels’ secondary and their ability to stop this LSU offense. They had so many missed assignments against Louisville and although were able to sneak away with a 3 point win, things won’t be that easy against a team as good as the Tigers. LSU brought in top-notch players through the portal (a lot of which came from Ole Miss) and we all know they opened the season with a 51-10 BEATDOWN of Clemson. Sam Leavitt has that same playmaking ability on offense and better players around him. This is also not just a one-sided revenge angle. This game is personal for both teams as each desperately wants to beat the other. Take LSU.

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Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on Ole Miss TT Over.

So LSU has a lot of talent on defense, and they looked great against Clemson. Ole Miss is NOT Clemson, and since Trinidad Chambliss took over at QB they have scored 27+ in 11 straight games. During that span they played Georgia twice, Miami and Oklahoma. Chambliss has terrorized elite SEC defenses, and in this game the Rebels are NOT going to stop. They are going to bring the full bag of tricks. I fear that it may not be enough, but I still think they score 28 o more points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Cincinnati starter Nick Lodolo projects to give up 2.9 runs with a 4.88 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.  Chicago’s lineup has hit a solid .298 (42-141) with a strong .883 OPS against Lodolo in his career.  The Cubs will start Matthew Boyd.  The lefty projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers not projecting too well, expect the offenses to thrive resulting in a high-scoring game on Saturday night.

Play OVER the total.

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

FREE PICK on Chicago Cubs (ML) | Good until -154.

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd/Nick Lodolo (Action).

Chicago lost yesterday's game off a caught stealing. While it was probably going to fall short anyways, I am looking for the Cubs to put up a much better performance on Saturday. Matthew Boyd actually has a 2.95 earned run average in road games this season -- Nick Lodolo has a 5.12 overall earned run average. Cincinnati is also out of the playoff race and Chicago is battling for the 4 seed. Go with the Cubs.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

Pittsburg plus the points vs New England for the 10am PT kick on Sunday. The Patriots really dropped the ball, pun intended last week against the Seahawks. Something that has become a trend in the NFL- betting against the Super Bowl loser early in the season the following year. Patriots fit the bill and the Steelers defense looked the part to back last week in the opener. The stingy Pittsburgh defense letup under 240 yards of offense against. Sprinkle some on the moneyline (+200). This one just missed the Sunday client card- Bet Steelers plus the points.

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Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

This is a two-team ML parlay. We'll "only" need both Sun Belt teams simply to win straight up, which - for reasons that I am about to get into - does not seem like asking for much.

2% ML Parlay (South Alabama & Louisiana) - South Alabama was a hard-luck loser last week at Tulane. I say that based on the Jaguars finishing +12 in first downs and +2.2 in yards per play differential. In what was a back and forth game, Tulane scored the GW TD in the final 90 seconds. At least USA still left New Orleans with the cover as 9-point road dogs. This week looks like a clear bounce back spot at home, against an Ohio team off an extremely fortunate 4OT win over Jacksonville State. The Bobcats were outgained by 220 yards in the 30-28 victory as they lost their top two quarterbacks to injuries. Ohio is my alma mater, so I have a good sense when to fade them. At home, they have not lost a game SU since 2023. But they're only 5-8 SU L13 on the road including 49-21 (+23.5) at Nebraska to open this season. No matter who ends up playing QB for OU, they won't be as good as USA's senior signal caller Bishop Davenport.

The other Sun Belt side we're looking at here is Louisiana. They're 2-0 ATS to start the season with a strong +1.6 YPP differential, despite having just faced USC last week. The Ragin Cajuns easily covered the 29.5-point spread out in LA even with giving up a punt return for a TD. (Final score was 49-30). Big drop in class this week, hosting UAB, who at least had the good sense to rid themselves of the odious Trent Dilfer last season. The Blazers did not cover the number (-9.5) LW at home vs. UL Monroe. In fact, they needed a late rally just for the 26-20 win. Now UAB did play well in the season opener at Illinois (+7 first downs!) But, I don't see them running the ball as effectively in this matchup. UAB is just 2-13-1 ATS off a SU win L4 years. My power ratings do show value at the current number, but asking for the SU win is easier. ULL QB Lunch Winfield will be the difference. 2% ML Parlay (South Alabama & Louisiana)

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

Take Cincinnati (#261)

The ‘Daily Double’ video below is clipped from Wagertalk Today on Friday; your sports central for bettors!  Here’s a brief write-up of my Bengals - Texans opinion, Bears- Vikings also included in the video

The Texans aren’t likely to have the one guy their offense couldn’t afford to lose at a position where they’ve already suffered multiple setbacks since the start of training campe.— WR Nico Collins —doubtful with a hamstring injury.  Meanwhie, CIncinnati’s defense has ‘improved by leaps and bounds from last year’ potential.  Joe Burrow vs CJ Stroud in a tight game in the fourth quarter — no question which QB I trust more in that spot, especially after Stroud’s end game debacle last weeek.  Take the Bengals.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

Take Kansas City - Indianapolis OVER (#277-278)

The Colts sure look like an Over team to this bettor in early season play.  Indy’s defense couldn’t stop the run OR the pass during their 0-7 slide to close out 2025 and Baltimore annihilated this stop unit last week.  Kansas City’s improved running game/offensive balance is primed to give the suspect Colts stop unit all kinds of problems AND to be efficient in the red zone like they were last week against Denver’s strong defense.  But it’s not like the Colts don’t score TD’s in the red zone with their balanced offense; setting the stage for what should be a relatively high scoring affair on Sunday Night.   All the deets are in the video below.  Take the OVER.

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play ON home teams after allowing and scoring fewer than 17 points last game, if they're facing an opponent that scored at least 37 points in each of its last two games.

Applies to Oklahoma.

15-2 ATS (88.2%) since 2021, covering the spread by an average of 9.9 points!

Note that the favorites in this angle are a perfect 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 10 points!

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

(271) Washington Commanders at (272) Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb Receptions

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Over 5.5 (-132)

Consensus Week 2 projections have him around 6.1 catches and 86.6 yards, while another projection has 5.8 catches and 82.1 yards.

Play: OVER 5.5 Receptions

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

CAROLINA -2.5 VS. ATLANTA

I’m backing the Carolina Panthers -2.5 against the Atlanta Falcons, and there are several reasons I like this matchup.

First, Carolina’s offense showed tremendous explosiveness in Week 1. Despite the 59-37 loss to Chicago, the Panthers moved the football extremely well, averaging 7.7 yards per play, fourth-best in the NFL after Week 1. They also had 29% of their offensive plays go for at least 10 yards, which ranked second in the league.

The biggest matchup advantage could be Bryce Young against Atlanta’s secondary. Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns in Carolina’s overtime win over Atlanta last season, and the Panthers swept both meetings with the Falcons last year.

On the other side, Atlanta enters this game with a major question mark at quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa has been dealing with an oblique injury, while Cooper Rush started the opener and threw two interceptions in Atlanta’s 20-13 loss to Pittsburgh. Michael Penix Jr. is also working his way back from last season’s ACL injury.

That uncertainty is important when you're laying only 2.5 points. Atlanta averaged just 13 points in Week 1 and managed only 17.8 yards per possession, the lowest figure in the league.

I also like Carolina's ability to create explosive plays through the passing game. If Young gets the same kind of opportunities he had against Atlanta last season, Carolina has enough offensive firepower to put pressure on the Falcons throughout the afternoon.

This is also a much different situation from laying a big number. Carolina only needs to win by a field goal, and we're getting the key number of 2.5 rather than 3.

Atlanta is at home, so I expect the Falcons to compete, but the quarterback uncertainty and Carolina's offensive upside make the Panthers the side I'm comfortable laying the points with.

My play: CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

This is a free play on NYJ.

Who in their right mind is laying points with Green Bay on the road. They lost 39-22 at Minnesota last week. Backup QB Carson Wentz threw for 133 yards and three TDs, and the Vikings ran for over 100 yards. The Packers couldn't run the football, Marshawn Loyd averaged 2.8 yards per carry and Green Bay had just 66 rushing yards. The Jets beat the Titans, and we can't overreact to that. We don't need the Jets to win here, but I will take the points. The Jets have been competitive at home, the Packers have failed to cover in six of their last nine on the road.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

There is real value on Marlon Vera at a +190 price tag. He is still a high-level Muay Thai fighter with sharp kicks and a reputation for toughness that has never really left him. At range he can keep opponents honest with long strikes and genuine power. Once the fight gets in tight exchanges he is just as dangerous in the clinch with slicing elbows and heavy knees into the body. That mix of distance striking and dirty boxing is still the core of his game. While Charles Jourdain is a high-risk, high-reward fighter who lives on creative combinations. The nickname “Air Jourdain” is earned. He will throw jumping knees and spinning attacks taking chances on landing something big. That style can produce highlight finishes or swaying a round but leaves himself exposed when a more measured striker times the entries. The main reason Vera sits at +190 is the recent run, going 1-5 across his last 6 fights. That looks ugly on paper, but those losses came against former champions and other top names in the division. Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, and rising prospect David Martinez. Sure, Jourdain has been on a winning streak but the quality of opposition has not matched Vera’s recent slate. Wins over Davey Grant, Victor Henry and Kyler Phillips are lower level and a are a big step down from the names Vera has been facing. The two higher-level tests Jourdain has taken recently went the other way. Jean Silva knocked him out in round 2 and Sean Woodson took a decision. Vera might look less sharp of late yet that downturn looks more like a product of the competition than a collapse in skill. Jourdain has tools but is also reckless in exchanges in the pocket. Vera is the more technical fighter and should find windows of opportunity as Jourdain comes forward. Also, Jourdain tends to win rounds by small margins, just edging out rounds with a few strikes. That lack of clear separation makes the current line look wide as Vera should have competitive rounds against him. Durability matters here too. Vera has never been finished as a professional and that history matters against a fighter who hunts highlight moments and can get sloppy doing it. This matchup should play closer than the number suggests. At these odds Vera still holds value.

Play: Marlon Vera +190

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

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New Mexico has been much better through two games than the market would normally expect from a three-touchdown-plus road underdog. New Mexico is 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS, has outscored Central Michigan and Mercyhurst 108-14, and has allowed only 304 total yards across those two victories. New Mexico owns a 47.9% offensive success rate, has scored 4.99 points per opportunity, and has yet to turn the ball over. The Lobos have established an identity on the ground, running on 65.3% of their plays with a 53.2% rushing success rate, 0.32 rushing PPA and 3.40 line yards, while producing 492 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns through two games. That rushing profile is especially useful when catching double-digits because New Mexico can shorten the game, reduce possessions, and make it harder for Oklahoma to generate the margin needed to cover. The Lobos have also produced explosive plays when they do throw: last week, four of their seven completions gained at least 20 yards, two went for 40-plus, and they averaged 24.7 yards per reception. Even with starting quarterback Jack Layne unavailable, New Mexico has continued producing offensively, which speaks to how effectively the Lobos have adapted around their ground game.

The New Mexico defense is the more compelling reason to take this many points. The Lobos' stop unit boasts a 22.9% defensive success rate, while opponents have completed only 46.5% of their passes for 3.9 yards per attempt and 167 total passing yards; the Lobos have also produced five interceptions and eight sacks. Their advanced pass-defense numbers are equally impressive, with a 17.4% success rate allowed and a -0.29 PPA, giving them a potentially favorable matchup against an Oklahoma passing attack that has yet to establish consistent efficiency. Oklahoma is coming off a 17-10 loss at Michigan in which quarterback John Mateer threw a costly late interception, and the Sooners have generated only a 45.2% offensive success rate through two games. Oklahoma rushing numbers are even less impressive: a 49.2% success rate is respectable, but the Sooners have produced only 270 rushing yards, 4.0 yards per carry, and two rushing touchdowns, with a mediocre 0.05 rushing PPA and poor 23.1% stuff rate. Oklahoma has just three offensive touchdowns through two games, which matters when asked to win by more than three touchdowns. The Sooners unquestionably possess an enormous talent advantage—Oklahoma ranks 14th in talent profile compared with 105th for New Mexico—but the handicap is about whether that advantage translates into a margin of at least 23 points, not whether Oklahoma wins the game.

Technician’s Corner

The technical portfolio provides additional support for taking more than three touchdowns with New Mexico. The strongest systems center on large underdogs coming off dominant victories, which fits a Lobos team entering 2-0 after another blowout win.

• Large underdog off a blowout win: Underdogs of +17 or greater coming off a win by at least 35 points are 117-79 ATS (59.7%) since 1989;

• Early-season version is even stronger: Underdogs of +17 or greater in Weeks 1-5, coming off a 35+ point victory with a total of 60 or lower, are 38-20 ATS (65.5%);

• Broader double-digit dog system: Underdogs of more than +10 following a victory by at least 35 points have gone 229-175 ATS (56.7%) since 1989;

• Run-heavy road underdogs: Unranked road underdogs averaging at least 125 rushing yards per game with totals of 47 or lower are 482-370 ATS (56.6%). This is particularly relevant to a New Mexico offense that has already rushed for 492 yards, averages 5.1 yards per carry, and runs the ball on 65.3% of its plays;

• Dominant two-way performance: Teams coming off a game in which they scored 58+ points while allowing fewer than 10 are 136-105 ATS (56.4%) since 2013.

Rather than treating the 117-79, 229-175 and 38-20 records as three independent indicators, they should be viewed as increasingly specific versions of the same underlying situation: the market asking a team coming off a dominant performance to suddenly absorb a massive number. That complements the matchup case for New Mexico, whose run-heavy offense can shorten the game while its defense has allowed opponents just 3.9 yards per pass attempt through two games. With Oklahoma coming off a 17-10 loss at Michigan and now being asked to win by at least 23 points, the technical profile provides another layer of support for New Mexico +22.5. Grab the inflated number with the Lobos as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 19.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Take Green Bay First Half (#251)

This ‘Daily Double’ video offers my take on Sunday NFL action: Packers vs Jets ad Ravens vs Saints.  Here’s a brief write-up of my Green Bay vs New York betting opinion.

I don’t trust the Packers to hold leads right now, considering they’ve blown four double digit leads while losing six straight dating back to last year.  That said, Green Bay has been good enough to build those leads, and the Jets off a dominant showing in Tennessee — heck, the Jets off a rare win — are primed for a lesser performance here. Geno Smith wasn’t touched by the Titans defense; the Packers sacked Carson Wentz three times last Sunday and picked off Kyler Murray once.  Look for the Packers to get the lead here, and with our ‘first half’ bet, we won’t need to worry if they blow it.  Take the Packers FIRST HALF.

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

This is a free play on the Jets.

Who in their right mind would even consider betting on the Packers as a road favorite at this point? I mean unless you drank too many glasses of Italian house wine, then you should think twice about backing the Packers laying points. Now forget about the Jets win at Tennessee, we can't read too much into that. The Jets last year were a good bet as a home dog, covering in five of eight home games. The Packers can't run the ball, and that's a recipe for disaster as a favorite on the road. Take the points with Geno and the Jets.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 2 day(s) ago

Play: Washington +4.5

w
Washington held the ball for 33:20 and had twice as many first downs as Philadelphia... and lost but got the cover.  A healthy Jayden Daniels went 18-of-34 for 164 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

We were on the Giants on Sunday night. Dallas never led in New Jersey. Not once. They held the ball for 23:20, ran it 18 times for 69 yards, and gave up 394 yards and 165 on the ground with zero sacks and zero takeaways. That is the same defense that allowed 511 points last season, the most in the league, and it is now down its signal caller. DeMarvion Overshown, Malik Hooker both added to the IR. Marist Liufau is already out. Their Pro Bowl left guard is gone too. Tyler Smith is on injured reserve and cannot come back before Week 5, with T.J. Bass making the starts. Dorance Armstrong comes off his suspension for this one.

Give me the Commanders and the points.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on HOU.

Lets not overreact to the Bengals winning and the Texans losing in Week 1. Cincinnati heads out on the road traveling to Houston. The Texan's #1 ranked defense couldn't stop Joe Burrow, but I don't think it's wise to assume Joe Burrow and the Bengals can easily replicate that success. CJ Stroud finally has some weapons on offense, with a healthy receiving corps and a pair of capable running backs. He's thrown 12 TD passes and just 1 pick at home since the beginning of last season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

JETS +3.5

I know Green Bay is the more highly regarded team, but I really like the Jets getting +3.5 at home against the Packers.

The first thing I love about this number is the 3.5. If this game comes down to one possession, the Jets have a lot of ways to cover. A 27-24 Packers win, a 24-21 Packers win or even a Jets outright victory all cash this ticket.

Green Bay is laying 3.5 despite going just 6-11 against the spread last season, including only 2-6 ATS when favored by 3.5 points or more. That's a pretty important historical warning sign when we're being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Packers.

The Jets also come into this game with confidence after beating Tennessee 23-10 in Week 1. They controlled the game defensively and did enough offensively to win comfortably. Meanwhile, Green Bay's Week 1 performance wasn't enough to justify treating them as a team that should automatically be laying more than a field goal on the road.

And this is a home game for New York. That's significant when we're taking +3.5. The Jets don't need to dominate Green Bay — they need to stay competitive for four quarters, and playing at home gives them a better environment to do exactly that.

I also don't think we should overlook the way the Jets' defense performed in Week 1. They held Tennessee to just 10 points, and if they can create another game where the opposing offense has to consistently earn every yard, that makes +3.5 extremely valuable.

There is one legitimate concern: New York will be without safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who is expected to miss at least one week after suffering a groin injury. Rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. is also expected to miss time.

But at +3.5, I don't need the Jets to be the better team overall. I need them to make this a competitive game, and I believe they're capable of doing that.

MY PLAY: JETS +3.5.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

Missouri State earned a 21-20 road win at Marshall last season as a 7.5-point road 'dog. Marshall's hopes of getting some revenge for that loss took a big hit last week against Middle Tennessee as starting QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson suffered a shoulder injury. Early injury reports have him listed as questionable for this clash with the Bears, but his status is very important to monitor through out the week. After losing 50-0 at Texas A&M to open the year, Missouri State recovered with a 48-14 home win over FCS-level Lindenwood last week. There's not much to learn from those two results, so the Bears largely remain a mystery in the betting market. If Del Rio-Wilson is unable to go, we still have interest in the Herd. Tony Gibson strikes us as the kind of coach that can play up the revenge angle from last year. Fifth-year senior Zion Turner has experience, so while there is a drop-off from the talented Del Rio-Wilson, the learning curve of this offense won't be steep.
Play Marshall

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

If you would have printed out the box score and handed it to Panthers' fans before Sunday's game against the Bears, almost every Carolina fan would have signed up for it on the spot. You're tellin' me we're going to score 37 points and generate 478 yards with 24 first downs while going 4-for-4 in the red zone?! We would imagine that most folks inside Bank of America Stadium would have signed up for that. Unfortunately, those numbers were only good enough for a 22-point defeat against the white-hot Bears. Bryce Young has seemingly formed a nice bond with Jalen Coker, but an offense with only two viable receivers (along with Tetairoa McMillan) is likely going to struggle. Xavier Legette and Jimmy Horn Jr. both failed to catch a pass on Sunday and Horn Jr. fumbled a punt, which has seemingly sealed their fate at the bottom of the depth chart. With Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa both unavailable, the Falcons called upon Cooper Rush for a surprise start against the Steelers. Trailing by three with the ball near midfield in the fourth quarter, Rush had a screen pass intercepted by TJ Watt and returned for a touchdown. When asked about the potential return of either Penix Jr. or Tagovailoa, Falcons' head coach Kevin Stefanski simply replied, "No updates" in his Monday press conference. Carolina has had Atlanta's number over the past few years (4-1 straight-up and ATS last five meetings), and even though things got out of hand against the Bears, the Panthers still have some positives to take away from that result.
Play Carolina Panthers

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago

This is a free play on SEA.

The Seahawks have won more games on the road the last two years than they have at home. They are 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS in their last nine versus Arizona. The line was double digits before Darnold got hurt, and I don't downgraded Seattle a full six points because of Drew Lock. Arizona was projected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, and we shouldn't overreact to their Week 1 win at LA. That game might say more about the Chargers than it does about the Cards. Jacoby Brissett is 0-3 versus Seattle in his career, with a 53% completion percentage in those games. Most recently a 42-21 loss at Seattle last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago

The Chargers knocked a ton of survivor players out with a 26-14 loss at home last week to an Arizona team that had a preflop win total of 4.5. Coach Jim Harbaugh said he regretted not getting his starters more playing time in the preseason, and it showed on the field. LA had 2 turnovers and was outgained 393-268 in total yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders handled business in a 2 touchdown win over Miami as the Klink Kubiak era got off to a good start. Also keep in mind that this will be like a home game for the Raiders due to the huge fan base and the lack of local support for the Chargers. Vegas still has a ways to go before becoming a serious contender, but we’ll play the number getting a full touchdown against a Chargers’ squad that was clearly overvalued in the betting market. Take the Raiders.

Released/revised 4 day(s) ago