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Ben Burns
WNBA Basketball
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I won with the Mystics when these teams faced each other on Saturday. Golden State was returning from its most successful road trip ever. I thought it would be a tough spot for the Valkyries and it was. They won 74-69 but failed to cover. That game stayed below the O/U number, continuing an under streak for the Valkyries. While they've been playing great defense, this is a very low O/U line, the lowest I recall seeing this season. I feel it'll prove to be too low. Saturday's game saw only 61 first half points. The teams combined for 82 in the second half but by then it was too late. Look for the second half offense to carry over into Monday's rematch and the final score to finish above the low number. *good up to 147
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**14-3 WNBA RUN!** SUNDAY SWEET SPOT (INCREDIBLE +378 UNITS PROFIT!): $25.00
Basketball Champion Ben Burns has nailed five of his past six WNBA selections. He's a SIZZLING 9-2 his past 11 and an AWESOME 14-3 his past 17. More importantly, he's on an AMAZING +378.4 UNIT HOOPS HEATER. Off Saturday's SWEEP, Burns delivers again Sunday. Be there!
WORLD CUP FINAL BEST BET! (37-16 SOCCER RUN) : $25.00
Ben Burns is 18-8 in the World Cup and 37-16 his past 53 soccer selections overall. All plays rated 4% and up are 31-14 the past 45. Though he cooled off in the semis, Burns is bouncing back and closing things out with a bang. When it's the final game and everything's on the line, many pros all over the globe put their faith in Burns. He& ...
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Pavlos Laguretos
World Cup
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World Cup Thank You Bonus: As a way to say thanks for buying my World Cup Package, you get 100% back, the full $149, toward my 1 Year Soccer Pass. That drops the price to $550 with code BB149. It covers the next 12 months and any soccer play, regardless of league or tournament, plus my 5% Soccer Best Bets. Added bonus: your 365 days do not start counting down until after the World Cup ends, so you get the rest of the tournament before the clock even starts.
Tagliafico is known to getting carded/booked in crucial matches like this one, and we are getting a +175 at B365 which includes Extra Time and also with Sub Play on, meaning that if he gets subbed off, this bet carries on to his sub, which is Medina, an absolute madman. Taglafico will be guarding Yamal, who is looking to have a good game and also draws a lot of fouls, so I'm expecting a lot of action down that side. Lastly, Tagliafico was booked in the friendly vs Spain in 2018, this season he had 12 yellow cards and 3 red cards in 30 matches with Lyon, it's a miracle he hasn't been carded yet in the World Cup, but the truth is that he didn't really face a team with a dangerous right winger as Lamine Yamal.
This season he got booked vs PSG's lethal wingers and in ALL 3 Europa League matches vs Spanish clubs.
Take 1.5% on Nicolas Tagliafico to be carded/booked (+175 B365 Including Extra Time, with Sub Play On), line good to +150. As always, these bets are found under the cards/fouls/bookings tabs, if you can't see them then your region/state doesn't legally allow card betting.
New to soccer betting? Confused by 3-way lines? Our free Soccer Cheat Sheet has you covered: https://www.wagertalk.com/free-sports-picks/downloads
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[SUN] WORLD CUP FINALS PROP 6 PACK (#2 IN PROFIT): $25.00
#2 IN WORLD CUP PROFIT (+46.34u)Pavlos is coming off a VERY EASY WIN IN HIS 5% MAX BET on Saturday with the Over in France/England, and is currently #2 in World Cup Profit (+46.34u). Up now is the Final Prop Package with 6 Props at some pretty big odds (+120 / +250 / +550 / +340 etc). This system requires just TWO of SIX plays to be won in order to ...
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Joe Raineri
Major League Baseball
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Coors Field, 98-degree heat, and Saturday’s 10-3 final have already been fully accounted for in a total of 11. The value is on the other side of that inflated number.
Hunter Greene is still early in his return, but his most recent start showed exactly why his ceiling matters. He struck out 12 Cubs over seven scoreless innings and has the pure swing-and-miss stuff to control a Rockies lineup that has been weak against right-handed pitching. Colorado owns just a .697 OPS and .299 estimated wOBA against righties over the last two weeks.
Ryan Feltner is not an automatic fade in Denver. His 4.14 ERA across eight home starts is notably better than his road work, and Cincinnati has been only a middle-tier recent offense against right-handed pitching. The Reds can hit for power, but their .767 recent OPS against righties does not justify treating them like an elite Coors offense.
The number gives room for offense without needing a perfect game from either starter. A 6-5 final pushes, and the market has already charged a heavy premium for the park, the weather, and the prior game’s outburst.
Play: Reds-Rockies Under 11 (-105)
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Rob Veno
WNBA Basketball
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(643) Chicago Sky at (644) Atlanta Dream: Total (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: FREE
Play Type: Full Game Total
Play: Total Over 179.0 (-109)
Date/Time: July 19, 2026 4:00 PM
Line Provider: Consensus Line
Chicago @ Atlanta
Atlanta offensive "bully" mentality vs. lower tier defensive squads continued at Toronto on Friday night. High-octane pace preferred by Toronto kicked in as well delivering a combination that propelled Atlanta to 111 points. That same formula exists today with Chicago which ranks #10 in Defensive Rating among WNBA teams and plays at the 3rd fastest tempo. Figure the Dream thrives again in this style of matchup which has posted 6 consecutive results between 179-209 total points scored. Their most recent pair were their L2G Toronto & Los Angeles which saw the scoreboard hit 203 & 193. Helping these games reach excessive point producing heights is the Atlanta defense which yielded 92 in each and has given up 88+ in 4 of their L5. Explosive Chicago offense has scored 87 or more in 11 of their L13 indicating they have the goods to rack up another number in that range today. Sky games are 6-2 "over" the current price tag in their L8 tries and matchup suggests this one does the same landing 180+.
PLAY: Chicago-Atlanta OVER 179
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Gianni the Greek
Tennis
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Czeck :
Sara Bejlek -160...(3%) - thru ML -175
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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Washington 5.6, Athletics 4.5
Market | Model win probability | Fair odds | Bet odds | Break-even probability | Model edge | Estimated ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WSN moneyline | 63.1% | -171 | -130 | 56.5% | +6.6 percentage points | +11.6% |
1. Major starting-pitcher advantage
Foster Griffin enters 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 109 strikeouts. His last seven starts produced a 1.25 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 44 strikeouts and only five walks in 43 1/3 innings.
Jacob Lopez enters 4-3 with an ERA near 6.83–7.04 and a WHIP near 1.79–1.84. His recent MLB appearances have included persistent walk and baserunner problems.
Starter | Projected IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Foster Griffin | 6 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 1.6 |
Jacob Lopez | 4 2/3 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
Washington projects to gain approximately 1.1 runs from the starting-pitcher matchup alone.
2. Griffin’s command reduces Oakland’s upset path
Griffin’s recent five walks across 43 1/3 innings make free multi-run opportunities unlikely. Oakland will probably need several consecutive hits or home-run damage to create a significant early lead.
That profile is especially valuable for a road favorite because it lowers the probability of Washington falling behind before its superior offensive matchup develops.
3. Oakland’s bullpen is in extremely poor form
The Athletics’ relievers have produced a 9.32 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over their last ten games, allowing 87 earned runs, 111 hits, 48 walks and 26 home runs in 84 innings.
Lopez is projected for fewer than five innings, creating approximately four innings of exposure to that bullpen.
4. Washington has a favorable offensive matchup against Lopez
Lopez has allowed a high volume of baserunners, including five walks in one home start and three walks with five earned runs in another recent outing. Washington can use multiple right-handed hitters against the left-hander, including Andrés Chaparro, Curtis Mead, Dylan Crews and Harry Ford.
Washington also demonstrated that it can punish Oakland’s middle relief, scoring 23 runs in the series opener after breaking the game open against the bullpen. Every Nationals starter recorded a hit in that game.
5. Oakland’s lineup is weakened
Nick Kurtz and Zack Gelof are unavailable, removing two important offensive pieces. The Athletics entered the weekend on a ten-game losing streak with a .575 OPS during that stretch.
The current lineup still contains threats such as Jacob Wilson, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom, but the supporting depth is considerably weaker.
6. Washington’s moneyline is preferable to the run line
Washington’s bullpen has been unreliable, so laying -1.5 introduces unnecessary late-inning risk. The Nationals’ relief staff owns a season ERA above 5.00, making a one-run victory more likely than the starter mismatch alone suggests.
The moneyline allows Washington to win close after Griffin leaves without requiring late separation.
Price Evaluation
Nationals odds | Break-even probability | Model advantage | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
-120 | 54.5% | +8.6% | Excellent |
-130 | 56.5% | +6.6% | Strong value |
-140 | 58.3% | +4.8% | Value |
-150 | 60.0% | +3.1% | Playable |
-160 | 61.5% | +1.6% | Marginal |
-170 | 63.0% | +0.1% | Fair/no value |
Projected result: WSN 5.6, ATH 4.5
Fair moneyline: WSN -171
Playable through: approximately -150
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5% MLB MAX Bet! +62 units, 64.3% Winning Percentage, 22.1% ROI: $35.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a 5% MLB MAX bet for late Sunday. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss.Current streaks:+71 units in 20265% bets +62 units, 64.3% Winning Percentage (36-20-3) , 22.1% ROI last 365 daysLif ...
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Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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972 San Diego at Kansas City
The Padres continue to play as if the team is just going through the motions. The talent is much higher than what they have shown on the field, which is frustrating for Padres fans. German Marquez takes the hill for San Diego, along with his 248th ranked pitcher standing at Fangraphs.
The Kansas City offense which has been dormant most of the season is starting to wake up. They now have three of the hottest hitters in baseball, Jenson, Thomas and Massey. To go along with the likes of Witt Jr, Caglianone and Pasquantino with their bright futures. The Royals will counter with Noah Cameron, the only lefty in the rotation. San Diego is the fifth worst offense in baseball this season when facing southpaws, producing just an 86 wRC+. Cheap number on the host.
PLAY KANSAS CITY
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Jesse Schule
World Cup
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This is a free play on Spain.
Heading into the Final, I have won 72% of my bets in this World Cup. How have I done it, well in part by avoiding the three-way moneyline when possible. My 5% client play for the Final, as well as my client play for the 3rd place match, are a fine examples of avoiding the three-way line for a higher percentage play. That said, I was tempted to bet Spain to win inside the 90 here, as they are so clearly the better team. Spain riding a 37 match unbeaten streak, while Argentina comes in off a string of controversial come-from-behind wins. The luck has to dry up eventually.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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5% WCUP FINAL BEST BET - 9-1 (90%) Last 10 Top Rated WCUP! : $35.00
DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN???Jesse Schule closed out the last World Cup with 7-STRAIGHT WINS! He is now 47-19 (71%) +52 UNITS since the last World Cup in Qatar. He cashed in a 5% WINNER with the under in the first match of the KO Round, and he's now 9-1 (90%) with his last 10 Top 4% & 5% WCUP plays.
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DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN???Jesse Schule closed out the last World Cup with 7-STRAIGHT WINS! He is now 48-19 (72%) +53 UNITS since the last World Cup in Qatar. He cashed in a 5% WINNER with the under in the first match of the KO Round, and he's now 9-1 (90%) with his last 10 Top 4% & 5% WCUP plays.
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Ben Burns
CFL Football
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Ottawa has scored the fewest points in the Eastern Conference. Winnipeg has scored the fewest in the West. In fact, these teams have each scored 119 through five games, an average of 23.8 ppg. Both have seen three of their five games stay below the total. Three of the past four h2h meetings, and five of the past seven, have produced 44 or fewer combined points. While Ottawa's defense is admittedly not very good, this O/U line still seems generous. *good at 54 or better
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**14-3 WNBA RUN!** SUNDAY SWEET SPOT (INCREDIBLE +378 UNITS PROFIT!): $25.00
Basketball Champion Ben Burns has nailed five of his past six WNBA selections. He's a SIZZLING 9-2 his past 11 and an AWESOME 14-3 his past 17. More importantly, he's on an AMAZING +378.4 UNIT HOOPS HEATER. Off Saturday's SWEEP, Burns delivers again Sunday. Be there!
WORLD CUP FINAL BEST BET! (37-16 SOCCER RUN) : $25.00
Ben Burns is 18-8 in the World Cup and 37-16 his past 53 soccer selections overall. All plays rated 4% and up are 31-14 the past 45. Though he cooled off in the semis, Burns is bouncing back and closing things out with a bang. When it's the final game and everything's on the line, many pros all over the globe put their faith in Burns. He& ...
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Off a 2-0 Saturday sweep, Ben Burns is ready to do it again Sunday. Burns is 77-48 (+51.91) his past 125. Early start. Hurry!
Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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With each team having had a lopsided victory in each game thus far, the series will get decided today between the Nationals and A's in West Sacramento. While the A’s finally got a much needed win, they’ve still lost 10 of their past 11 and will now face Foster Griffin, who is coming off an All Star appearance. Griffin has the 12th best ERA in the league at 2.77 and hasn’t allowed more than 1 run in 7 straight starts. Jacob Lopez has been smacked around for 11 earned in his past 6.2 innings of work and Washington has scored the most runs in baseball this season. Take the Nationals.
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Houston starter Hunter Brown projects to give up 2.2 runs with a 3.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Baltimore’s lineup has hit just .170 (8-47) with a weak .631 OPS against Brown in his career. The Orioles will start Brandon Young. The righty projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. With the starting pitching clearly in Houston’s favor, look for the Astros to get a solid home win in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Play ASTROS (-).
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Lock in every play your handicapper releases that is played during your access window, from now through college football opening weekend on August 29. That is up to two full months of your handicapper's selections, including 5% Best Bets, straight through to kickoff.What You Get:Every play your handicapper releases that is played during your access ...
Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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The Angels have fallen from the basement into a mine shaft, it would seem, their latest skid now 2-12 the last 14 games after last night’s feeble 7-0 loss vs. Tarik Skubal and the Tigers’ bullpen. The Halos are now all alone with MLB’s worst record at 38-61.
Meanwhile, all of the trade deadline talk about FA-to-be Skubal and Sunday starter Casey Mize (2.79 ERA) might be no more than idle chatter as Detroit is suddenly into AL wild card contention after winning 11 of 14, and allowing the Angels just one run total across the past two nights while winning in Anaheim. Play Tigers on Run Line
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