Free Sports Predictions MAY 14: NFL, NBA, NHL, All Sports

"Houston we have a pitching problem on Thursday." Setting us up for an over ticket to cash in for the 11:35am PT First Pitch in the Lone Star State. The Astros have letup more than 240 runs already this season. It is just passing the 40 game mark on the year! Absurdly horrific run prevention from the starters and the bullpen, ranking dead last in baseball for the Astros.

Last time Mike Burrows faced the Mariners bats he letup 11 hits and 6 runs. The last time Luis Castillo faced the Astros lineup he letup 10 hits and 7 runs, lasting just 3 innings. Pitchers park, early start has us on the over for Thursday's free pick.

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Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Chase Burns has established himself as an emerging superstar in this league and he’ll showcase his talents again on Thursday as the Reds look to get back on track after a tough extra innings defeat yesterday. Burns has allowed a total of just 1 run over his past 2 outings and 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his past 8 starts this season. We know how hitter friendly Great American Ballpark is, and Cincy has more pop throughout their lineup than most people realize. Foster Griffin’s has some concerning metrics in his profile, such as a barrel rate of 11.5%. He’s a slow velo pitcher who the Reds can get to. We’ll take the bullpens out of the equation and play the Reds on the F5 RL.

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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WSN @ CIN

Market used: WSN +162 / CIN -196, full-game total 8.0. Probable starters: Foster Griffin vs. Chase Burns. Game time: 12:40 PM ET, Great American Ball Park, expected temperature around 58–59°F with 16 mph wind.

Projected Score

WSN has the stronger offensive profile. WSN is scoring 5.4 runs/game, ranking 2nd in MLB, with a .325 OBP and .411 SLG. CIN is scoring 4.0 runs/game, ranking 26th, with a .220 AVG, .305 OBP, and .379 SLG. Recent form also favors WSN: WSN has a .799 OPS and 52 runs over the last 10 games, while CIN has a .677 OPS and 34 runs over the last 10 games.

Burns is a major suppressor, but not a complete shutdown spot. His 2026 line is 4-1, 2.11 ERA, 47.0 IP, 48 K, 1.04 WHIP, and his last seven games show 42.0 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. The risk is the matchup shape: WSN’s lineup is lefty-heavy at the impact spots, and Burns’ home split has been much softer versus left-handed bats than right-handed bats.

Griffin has matched Burns in run prevention, with 4-1, 2.12 ERA, 46.2 IP, 42 K, 1.03 WHIP. His last seven games show 41.2 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, but the model does not fully buy the ERA as the true baseline because CIN’s park and right-handed lineup construction add power risk.

Batter-vs-pitcher history is thin. No active hitter on either projected lineup has a meaningful 20-AB sample in this matchup. Burns has faced some WSN bats: CJ Abrams is 1-for-3 with a double and 1.000 OPS, while James Wood and Daylen Lile are each 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts. Griffin has no meaningful current CIN hitter sample large enough to move the model.

Great American Ball Park pushes power upward. Since 2025, the park has graded as one of MLB’s most favorable home-run environments, with a home-run park factor around 118–119, third-highest range in MLB. That offsets part of the two-starter quality and keeps the full-game total above the market number.

Bullpen edge goes to WSN by recent condition, even though neither relief group is clean. CIN’s relief group has been unstable, with recent bottom-tier indicators in ERA, FIP, xERA, WHIP, walk rate, and home-run rate, and WSN hit six homers in the prior game against CIN pitching. WSN’s bullpen season profile still carries risk, especially with a poor save rate and inherited-runner damage, so the edge is not large.

Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

Rankings — 1 Best, 30 Worst

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

The Mets might have found someone they can beat in the Tigers, who have fallen the last two nights at Citi Field. Those are just the latest in several disappointing Detroit efforts, losing in seven of eight, the offense held to a paltry two runs each of the first two games in this midweek set, and limited to three runs or fewer in six of the last seven games.

As the Mets try to fight back from their slow start, the team might be catching up to Thursday starter Nolan McLean, who has been Carlos Mendoza’s most-reliable performer on the mound, with a 2.78 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Play Mets on Run Line

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Thursday's White Sox/Royals game should see plenty of scoring. Kay has a poor 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP the season. When pitching during the evening, he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Those numbers are in line with his career (5.39 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) numbers. Bubic's numbers are quite a lot better than Kay's but they're still not amazing. Notably, Bubic walked four in five innings last game and he's now issued 10 free passes over his past three starts. He's also 0-2 for his career when facing the Sox on the road. Bubic is backed by a bad KC bullpen. Entering Wednesday, Royal relievers had a 4.74 ERA (fifth worst in the majors) and 1.45 WHIP. Chicago's bullpen stats aren't much better. Entering Wednesday, White Sox relievers had a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. *good at 9 or better

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

THE PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

TOP 30 AND TIES

Sudarshan Yellamaraju + 270

DRAFTKINGS

We will take the new Canadian guy at long odds here at plus 270 for Top 30 and ties. Sudarshan Yellamaraju is someone that no one is really following but we are. He has a game that could really play at Aronimink Golf Club. We love the fact that out of his last 9 events on the PGA tour he is Top 30 or better in 6. Getting plus 270 here for T30 and ties at the time of this writing at DK. It is the rookie’s first major so there will be nerves and thus we do make this a small play.

As always check your markets as golf is volatile with Numbers.

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

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Zach Benson broke a tie with a third-period power-play goal as the Sabres beat Montreal 3-2 on Tuesday night in Game 4, evening the Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Canadiens are primed to bounce back in Game 5 as NHL playoff teams coming off an upset loss as home favorites are 276-217 (56%; +5.1% ROI), including 109-71 (60.6%; +9% ROI) since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. Montreal finds support in a similar 207-157 (56.9%; +2.3% ROI) system dating to 2007 that invests against certain postseason teams coming off a game as road underdogs with fewer than two days of rest. Let’s also note that NHL playoff division road underdogs coming off a loss are 57-43 (57%; +37.1% ROI) versus opponents entering off a win, including 28-16 SU (63.6%; +55.9% ROI) and 34-10 PL (77.3%; +17.4% ROI) since 2019. Since 2015, .500 or greater NHL road teams are 71-54 (56.8%; +30.8% ROI) in Game 5 of a playoff series, including 47-33 (58.8%; +30.6% ROI) since 2019. Finally, the Canadiens fall into a very good 244-142 (63.2%; +15.3% ROI) statistical profile indicator of mine that dates to 2003 and involves shots on goal in the team's previous two playoff games. This situation has been 117-63 (65%; +15.7% ROI) since 2016. Take the Montreal Canadiens as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, May 14.

PROVEN PERFORMANCE
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-> Basketball: 105-71 (60%) | +86.2 Units
-> #1 NBA, 2025-26 Season (WP/ROI)
-> #1 NHL, 2025-26 Season (WP)
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (61%)

Released/revised 20 hour(s) ago

Fowler is playing his best golf in a long time, and this number feels too low for his current form.

He’s finished Top 10 in each of his last three tournaments, showing that every part of his game is trending in the right direction.

The advanced stats back it up too—over the last 30 days, he ranks 5th in this field in total strokes gained. That’s elite territory for a Top 40 ticket.

The putter has especially been on fire, and when Fowler gains strokes on the greens, he becomes very dangerous. While he’s not one of the longest hitters in the field, this course doesn’t demand overwhelming distance. Accuracy and smart course management matter more.

If he keeps hitting fairways, giving himself birdie looks, and rolling the putter the way he has recently, he should comfortably stay inside the Top 40.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago