College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets September 17

BET: Baylor Bears (-2.5) 

Backing the Baylor Bears as the short home favorite over the Arizona State Sun Devils. Baylor lost a marque Friday night matchup to Auburn in week #1, setting us up for a discount to “buy low” on a team that has scored 40 plus points in two straight wins. 

Arizona St did not look good in their only real test so far this year, losing at Mississippi St. QB Sam Leavitt was held below (50%) completions and less than 100 yards passing, while also throwing two picks. Now heading to another difficult place to play in Waco, Texas makes for a tough matchup without now NFL RB Cam Skattebo to rely on in the backfield. 

Locking this wager in early for week #4 college football trading. Game kicks Saturday at 7:30 ET on FOX. Baylor wins and covers the short number. 

Top client play= 5% CFB “MAX LIMIT” BET (100%) $$👇 

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If you would have asked me to handicap this game prior to the start of the season…or even prior to the Iowa State/Iowa game, I would have said that Iowa wins by 10+ in this game. I was high on Mark Gronowski transferring to Iowa after winning two FCS National titles at South Dakota State, but he has yet to show that form for the Hawkeyes. Gronowski has completed just 58.7% of his passes this season with a 4.9 average per attempt and his misses have been bad this year. Iowa has talent around him, and this offense could be dangerous, but without competent play at quarterback, they have been left wanting all year. The running game is what has kept Iowa in games on offense with a solid 1-2 punch from Xavier Williams and Jaziun Patterson, with a 3rd option in Terrell Washington Jr to spell them. This is a deep running attack that is benefited from a top tier offensive line, but they need the passing game and Gronowski to keep the defense on its heels.

Athan Kaliakmanis played well in his first year at Rutgers after transferring from Minnesota last year but struggled with his completion percentage of 54%. While throwing the ball just under 30 times per game this season, Athan has improved his completion percentage to 73% but will be tested by a tough Iowa defense for the first time this season. The Scarlet Knights have a lead back in Antwan Raymond that holds a 5.8 yards per carry average but also have 2 backups who hover around the 5.0 YPC mark as well. The receiving core for Rutgers is not deep but they have 3 experienced receivers who each have at least 200+ yards receiving and at least 2 touchdowns on the year.

Rutgers has a balanced offensive attack that is averaging 46.3 points per game but came against weaker competition, however, Athan Kaliakmanis has thrown the ball well to start the season and has playmakers at receiver that can score from any point on the field. Gronowski needs to improve on his previous performances but had a solid effort against UMass last week and may have been the confidence needed to get back to his South Dakota form. Rutgers can put up a ton of points and with competent play at quarterback, this Iowa offense can be dangerous. I am going to take advantage of the lower total here and play the over while banking on a continued improvement from the Iowa offense and Gronowski.

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New head coach for the Charlotte 49ers, Tim Albin, likes a power running game and a mobile quarterback to run his offense and has yet to see that within this team so far this season. The Charlotte running game has amounted just 2.8 yards per carry average and yet to have a running back reach the 100-yard mark through the first 3 games. The 49ers have needed quarterback Conner Harrell who on paper has had a good season, but his stats are a bit skewed with his performance against a weak Monmouth team last week while completing just 54% & 58% of his passes in the 2 prior weeks with a touchdown and an interception.

Rice has implemented the triple option as their base offensive attack and have done well through the season. Rice has 3 players with 30 carries or more on the year with 1 of those being quarterback Chase Jenkins. The Owls offense is not going to turn in big plays often, but they will grind your defense down all game with a 4.3 yards per carry average and 13 different players with rushing attempts on the year.

While the Rice defense doesn’t have a ton of talent and highly recruited underclassmen, they do play a disciplined defense while keeping the ball in front of them. That is not going to be as much of an issue this week with a Charlotte offense that has yet to develop into what they want to do with the ball and a quarterback who has been less than impressive outside of last week against Monmouth. Houston did a good job in stopping this Rice triple option but Charlotte is a weaker defense and I am banking on some mental errors when defending the triple option Thursday night.

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These teams have been involved in some exciting games over the year. This will mark the 104th meeting for the Iron Skillet. Last year's game finished with 108 points, SMU thrashing the Frogs 66-42. That marked the 7th straight meeting which produced more than 50 points, five of those finishing with greater than 75. 

On paper, both offenses are at least as good this year as they were last. Each has scored 42 or more points in 2 of its 3 games. TCU is averaging 515 yards per game and 45.7 points per game. SMU is averaging 435.3 ypg and 38.3 ppg. There should be points galore. Play on the over. 

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This is a free play on 1H Under. 

Lanorris Sellers was supposed to light up the SEC this season, but so far his play has been pedestrian at best. He left the loss to Vanderbilt with a head injury, and he is likely to miss this game at Missouri. Backup Luke Doty didn't put any points on the board after replacing Sellers, and if Shane Beamer has a backup on the road expect him to try to shorten the game, hang on for dear life and try to steal it at the end. The bis the first SEC game for Beau Pribula, so a cautious approach in the first half might be advisable for the Tigers as well. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

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Iowa has won all four meetings (3-1 ATS) since Rutgers joined the Big Ten, but we're hoping those days are over. In last week's edition of The Football GoldSheet newsletter, we begged Kirk Ferentz to throw the ball 50 times against UMass to help Mark Gronowski and the Hawkeyes' passing attack get ready for Big Ten play. He didn't, and we certainly weren't impressed with what we saw. The South Dakota State transfer was just 16-of-24 for 179 yards through the air against the Minutemen. Through three games, Gronowski has 306 passing yards with a completion rate of 58.7-percent. That's not good enough if you're looking to lay points with Iowa on the road. Not only are oddsmakers asking the Hawkeyes to win, but they have to win by margin. That simply is not in their DNA. Rutgers has won its last two games by a combined score of 105-27. That Week 1 scare against Ohio doesn't look so bad anymore after the Bobcats beat West Virginia two weeks ago. The Scarlet Knights are a home 'dog with plenty of bite on Friday night. Play on Rutgers

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LA TECH (-3) VS SOUTHERN MISS

CONFERENCE USA VS SUN BELT

So I want to talk about a team that is flying way under the radar right now, and that's Louisiana Tech. Last week, they didn't just win; they put on an absolute clinic, racking up over 575 yards of offense and running the ball for over 350. They were completely dominant.

Their biggest strength? Running the football. And what's the one thing their opponent, Southern Miss, absolutely cannot do? Stop the run. It is a mismatch at the line of scrimmage from the opening kickoff.

Now, I know what some guys are going to say: 'But Prez, what about that Southern Miss quarterback, Braylon Braxton? He's a stud, he's a dynamic playmaker, he's the real deal.'

And you know what? They're right. He is a stud. But here's the secret the market doesn't know: LA Tech's Head Coach, Luke Olson, was Braxton's coach for two years at Tulsa. He knows every tendency, every weakness, every tell. He literally helped build the quarterback he is now game-planning to destroy. It is the ultimate insider advantage.

On top of that, Southern Miss is playing their first road game of the year, and this new-look LA Tech defense already has as many interceptions as they did all of last season.This team is different. I'm backing the home team with a massive schematic advantage and the ultimate secret weapon on their coaching staff. This line is way too short. Give me Louisiana Tech -3.

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Take Indiana (#330)

The last two meetings between the Hoosiers and the Illini were decided by exactly a field goal; one of them in OT.  Indiana is not battle tested; lined at -23, -36 and -47 in their first three games, while Illinois notched a road win (by margin), forcing five turnovers in a blowout as -2.5 favorites at Duke.  That said, Indiana is not a team primed to turn the ball over in bunches, even against defensive minded foes.  Indiana’s offensive line is elite; their offense is balanced and their special teams are primed to help the Hoosiers win the field position battle all night.  It’s surely worth noting that Indiana is 9-2 ATS in eleven home games in the Curt Cignetti era; an emerging trend worth riding.  And it’s not like Brett Bielema has a ‘we trust him stepping up in class’ track record here in Champaign or in previous stops. Chalk worth laying.  Take Indiana.

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There’s no doubt Deion Sanders does a great job of preparation during the week.  The problem is, he just doesn’t realize his team isn’t very good. The Buffaloes were dominated on Friday night by Houston. They don’t know who their quarterback is, and Ryan Staub was terrible, going 19 of 35 with 2 picks and a QBR of 27.7. This is a lot of points for them to be laying against Wyoming, whose defense is holding their opponents to 12.7 points per game thus far. While the Cowboys aren’t exactly a dynamic offense, Kaden Anderson is tough to bring down at 6 foot 4 and 230 pounds. The offense returned 9 starters, including almost the entire O-line and they have a ton of experience at the wide receiver position. Look for the Cowboys to stay within the number as Colorado continues to struggle. Take Wyoming.

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These teams used to play regularly but they haven't met for quite a few years. This will be the first meeting since 2009 and only the second meeting since 1997. The Buffaloes won the 2009 game by a score of 24-0 and have an 24-3-1 overall series advantage. The Buffaloes should improve on those stats in relatively comfortable fashion on Saturday. 

The Cowboys managed only six points in last week's loss vs Utah and they tend to have real trouble scoring on the road. They've scored 15 or less in each of their last three road games, including just 10 at Akron earlier this season. (The Zips have given up 99 points in their two games since.) The Buffaloes, who have an extra day's worth of rest from having played Friday, have much tougher games ahead-they won't play an "easier" game the rest of the way. Their next four opponents include BYU, TCU, Iowa State and Utah. Knowing this is their chance to build some confidence, look for the Buffs to run up the score en route to a lopsided win and cover. *good at -14 or better

Ben Burns is the reigning football champion, our #1 overall football handicapper last season. 

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