College Football Free Picks Today - Best College Football Bets September 23

It’s not quite the sort of “Land of Dis-Enchantment” clashes as many of these all-New Mexico battles have been in recent years. Not with the Lobos now the best thing in Albuquerque aside from the green chile cheeseburgers at the Owl Café, or since portly head coach Jason Eck arrived from Idaho and began to entertain the masses with not only his quotes but an upgraded brand of UNM football that continues to overachieve and put a legit scare into Oklahoma last week at Norman. All of that this month minus dual-threat QB Jack Layne, whose preseason arm injury has merely given Eck the chance to rotate a better runner (sophomore Toa Fa'avae) and better passer (Oregon transfer Luke Moga) to effectively keep opposing defenses off balance. Lest we think it’s all on offense where the Lobos are making their mark, the defense is performing like it has been lifted from the well-guarded perimeter of the White Sands Missile Range while allowing only 9 points per game after stonewalling the Sooners’ ground game last weekend (only 69 rushing yards and 1.8 yards per carry allowed...imagine Barry Switzer's reaction?). Sooners’ QB John Mateer was goaded into throwing a couple of picks. Granted, the Aggies aren’t about the roll over at home for their uppity (so they think at NMSU) in-state rival, especially now that Tony Sanchez looks to have the best QB in Las Cruces since Diego Pavia as Furman transfer Trey Hedden hasn’t been afraid to push the ball downfield. Though his bravado did result in a couple of key interceptions in the recent loss at Hawaii, and the Aggies couldn’t keep pace in this rivalry matchup last September when Eck’s pressure defense harassed then-NMSU QB Logan Fife into nine sacks as the Lobos won in a 38-20 breeze at home. Have Sanchez and his team really closed the gap since? Since New Mexico head coach Jason Eck arrived from Idaho last season, the Lobos have recorded a sparkling 11-4 mark vs. the spread.
Play New Mexico

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The losing streak continues. Charlotte put up a good fight last week in rain-soaked Boone against App State, but the 49ers have now lost 12-straight games including one as a three-touchdown favorite against The Citadel in this year's opener. Charlotte has covered the number in back-to-back games as a big 'dog, but in our opinion, the situation played a heavy factor in each of those results. The first cover was against Ole Miss as a 44.5-point 'dog when the Rebels were clearly disinterested and ready to turn the page toward LSU. The second cover was last week's 26-21 loss to the Mountaineers in a game that was delayed by 3.5 hours and ended at 12:32am ET. Needless to say, we're not rushing to upgrade the 49ers' power rating any time soon. Louisiana has covered the number in each of its first three games this season. Last week's 21-14 final score against UAB was probably a little flattering for the Blazers after the Ragin' Cajuns out-gained UAB by 117 yards with a 21-11 edge in first downs. UAB's only touchdown through the first 51 minutes came off a fumble return in the end zone. We have this game lined closer to -14 with minimal home field advantage for the Niners. And like we mentioned, Charlotte essentially lost a full day of prep and recovery after playing a road game late into the night last week. Play Louisiana

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This is a free play on CAL.

Clemson hasn't played a road game West of the Mississippi River in decades, and when I asked Grok the last time the Tigers played on the road in the Pacific Time Zone, the answer was in 1966 in a 30-0 loss at USC. The struggles on West Coast schools traveling out East is well documented, but there is not as much data on East Coast schools going out West. Needless to say, this Clemson program is a dumpster fire at the moment. They got rolled over by LSU, then barely beat Georgia Southern as a huge favorite. Last week they were losing to North Carolina at home in the 4th quarter, and just as the Tar Heels were knocking on the door with first and goal that likely would have led to a TD putting the game out of reach, the game was delayed 2.5 hrs for lightning. Of course the Tar Heels imploded after the delay, and Clemson got a rather phony win, and an even more egregious cover. Cal has an elite QB, and this program is trending in the right direction. I can't imagine a clearer case of the wrong team favored.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: Iowa State +8.5.

We missed the opener by four points. Hence the free play, similar to Houston last Friday night. We got the win (cover) and I expect a similar result from the Cyclones at home on Saturday afternoon.

Who has Utah actually beaten? The Utes are 15th in the country, 3-0, and allowing 8.0 points a game, looks good on paper, but it against Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State. Arkansas is 1-2 and got trucked 45-17 by Georgia two weeks after leaving Salt Lake. Utah State is 0-3 and lost 29-17 at home to Idaho State. Yet they have a top 15 ranking and a number north of a touchdown on the road in a conference opener.

Sure, Iowa State was picked to finish last in the Big 12 and sits 2-1, and the loss is 16-13 at Iowa, a team that we took the +14.5 against just two short weeks ago. Iowa State had them on the ropes the entire game. Defensively, The Cyclones are stopping people: a 32.4% opponent success rate, an 18.7% havoc rate and a 16.9% stuff rate. Aiden Flora carried 12 times for 194 yards and 2 scores against Bowling Green. Cornerback Jaheim Singletary was hospitalized after a collision in that game and released Saturday with his status still open, but Beni Ngoyi and Drew Surges could both be back on that defense.

Devon Dampier is 71.6% for 690 yards with a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, second in the Big 12 in passing efficiency at 178.5.. Jaylen Raynor is at 55.8% and that has to get better. Neither one of these teams has beaten anybody yet... only one of them is being priced like it has.

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We have a “live dog” on our hands in early action Saturday as Texas’ win over Ohio State has them overvalued in the betting market. The Longhorns played terrible for 3 quarters in that high stakes tilt, and whether it was Arch Manning missing wide open receivers, or receivers dropping passes in the end zone, lets just say that very few sharps have UT as their top ranked power rated team. Albeit against lower level competition, Tennessee is averaging 48 points per game and hasn’t scored less than 42 in any of their 3 contests. They’re averaging 7.4 yards per play and Freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon hasn’t thrown an interception yet. He was known for taking great care of the ball in high school and we’ll happily put the points in our pocket with the home dog in Knoxville. Take Tennessee.

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The Utes are a strong team and they're off to a hot start. However, I expect them to have their hands full on Saturday. While the Cyclones have a lot of new faces this season, they're playing well so far. They're off a confidence-building blowout win over Bowling Green and are 2-1. The lone loss was by just three points, at Iowa. These teams met at Utah in 2024 and the Cyclones won by a field goal. Don't be surprised if this one is also closer than expected.

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