Kelly In Vegas

THE PLAY: Syracuse +8.5 (-110)

PLAY: Syracuse +8.5

We've been on the Orange two weeks in a row. Syracuse covered as 14.5-point underdogs for us against Louisville last week while outgaining the Cardinals 462-425. Quarterback Malachi Nelson continues to hit explosive vertical plays, throwing touchdown passes of 41 and 24 yards and demonstrating high efficiency against press coverage. They also got it done against the spread at Virginia two weeks prior. Orange are 0-4 in ACC play, which kept them off my parlay card. (And probably means they will actually win this game outright).

North Carolina (4-2 SU) remains consistently overvalued by oddsmakers, failing to beat a single FBS opponent by more than five points this season. Given UNC's inability to create separation or cover larger spreads, taking the inflated line value with Syracuse in another one-possession game with the 'Canes on deck for the Tar Heels.

THE PLAY: Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 (-119)

PLAY: Cincinnati +2.5

I gave this out on "bet on it" +3 as an assumption that Lamar Jackson was not going to play. Just a few short hours later, it appears, based on the line move, he will most likely be out. Obviously, keep an eye on the injury news throughout the rest of the weekend.

Lamar Jackson hasn't practiced since spraining his ankle back on Oct. 4 and remains day-to-day. Without him, Baltimore's offense completely stalled out, managing just 235 yards and 10 points (all scored in the 1st quarter) with Tyler Huntley at the helm in Cleveland. Derrick Henry was held to a modest 58 yards on 17 carries last week.

Cincinnati comes out of its bye with Joe Burrow firing on all cylinders (11 TDs, 3 INTs). Burrow threw four touchdown passes at Miami, including one to Ja'Marr Chase in his return from a concussion.

The Bengals have been reliable on the road at 2-1 straight up. Wins at Houston (20-6) and Miami (31-24), while their only road defeat came by three in Pittsburgh, a game in which we were against them. Neither of Cincy's losses this year came by more than five points.

Baltimore is beatable at home 1-1, dropping a 24-17 game to New Orleans.