Kelly In Vegas

THE PLAY: Dallas Cowboys +4.5 (-118)

PLAY: Dallas +4.5

We were on the Niners on Sunday. Easiest cash of the day! We were also on the Colts +5 versus the Cowboys. Dallas put up 508 yards in Indianapolis without George Pickens. Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and the ground game added 179 more, with Javonte Williams going for 101 and Tyler Goodson adding 77 on 12 carries.

Prescott has 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions on the season, and the Cowboys have run for 179 yards or more in two of their last three games. Rookie Caleb Downs sealed the win in Indy with his first career interception.

San Francisco is a Super Bowl contender sitting 7-1, but it has been a road favorite only once this year and lost that game 29-20 in Atlanta with four turnovers. The receiver room is thin, too. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk all sat out last week, and Ricky Pearsall is done for the season. Maybe they can do it all with Kittle and McCaffrey, but that's a big ask.

Grab the points with the Cowboys at home.

THE PLAY: South Florida +4.0 (-112)

PLAY: USF +4

You snooze, you lose. I wanted to give this one out for my $5 Tuesday play, but it appears I'm late to the party. I still like the South Florida Bulls here. The Bulls defense is allowing 15.1 points a game, and they've held four opponents to 10 or fewer: FIU (9), Bowling Green (6), Kent State (2), and UAB (10). Even Saturday's 20-17 loss at East Carolina took a 55-yard field goal from Andrew Conrad as time expired.

The quarterback is the question. Michael Van Buren Jr. (6 TDs, 0 INTs) missed the ECU game with an undisclosed injury, and there's been no update on his status for Thursday. But Luke Kromenhoek was sharp in his first start, going 17-of-21 for 179 yards and a touchdown with no picks. D.J. Crowther got banged up on the opening drive and still ran for 111.

I faded Memphis early in the season and got burnt. That was until they went on the road. They lost 38-20 at Boise State and 31-17 at Tulane.

A Thursday night home dog with the best defense on the field? This one opened +6.5 and is down to +4.5 and +4 in some places. Give me the Bulls to win this one.