Kelly In Vegas

THE PLAY: Kansas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

Kansas Under 5.5 Wins (+135)

Kansas has finished 5-7 in back-to-back seasons, and they've got a real shot to make it three in a row.

Does a two-time 5-win team suddenly find a sixth? I don't see where it comes from. The Jayhawks are hanging around the bowl bubble once again and falling just short. This year they've got a harder path with a downgrade at the position that matters most, quarterback.

Jalon Daniels is in the NFL after six years in Lawrence, and the job now belongs to Cole Ballard, a redshirt junior who arrived as a walk-on, worked his way up, and started two games back in 2023. His stat line: 108 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and a QBR under 40. Even the reporting that has him winning the job frames him as the safe game-manager over higher-ceiling Isaiah Marshall.

This is a team that can’t finish close games. They stalled in the red zone and misfired in the two one-score losses that would've made them bowl eligible last season and now they're handing the keys to a game-manager with a sub-40 career QBR. That's not how a 5-7 team finds a sixth win.

Their schedule does them no favors. Five true road games, and Arizona State in London. We see how losing that “across the pond” game fared last season for my Wildcats. The middle of the year stacks three road games in four weeks, and they close with two of their last three away from Lawrence. LIU and Middle Tennessee,  two wins. After that, the road to a sixth runs through Missouri, the London trip, at Utah, at Kansas State, at TCU, at West Virginia, and home dates with Baylor, UCF, and a high caliber BYU. There are potentially two coin flips in that mix. 4-8 is the ceiling for the Jayhawks in 2026.

THE PLAY: Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

Oklahoma to Win SEC +1200

If you want a longer shot further down the board to win the SEC, Oklahoma stands out.

With a healthy Jackson Arvidson, John Mateer and 16 returning starters, they'll be a prime contender in this conference. The schedule at first glance looks tough, with road games at Michigan, Georgia in September. But they get the Red River versus Texas coming off the bye week and middle of the pack SEC from there on out. I’ve always been told it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish in the SEC… Oklahoma very well could be playing in the championship game in Atlanta in December.

THE PLAY: Penn State Over 9.5 Wins +140

Penn State Over 9.5 +140

Bottom line… They have the softest draw in the conference, no Indiana, no Ohio State, no Oregon. This season's opponents went .407 in Big Ten play last year. They also have zero P4 non-conference games. This screams over and that’s the reason this is a free play as opposed to client play.

Yes, the market has already priced in the soft schedule and is asking you to trust Matt Campbell in his first season at State College, with a new DC, and a defensive line that lost roughly 80% of its production. Let's count the likely wins: Marshall, at Temple, Buffalo, Wisconsin, at Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, Rutgers, at Maryland, that's nine games where they'd be favored, several heavily. Small dog at Michigan, coin flips versus USC at home, a team that has faltered in the Eastern Time Zone and at Washington. Are they going to win the Big Ten? Probaly not, but can they win 10 games and possibly be playing in Indianapolis to end the season.

THE PLAY: Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Texas Tech UNDER 10.5 wins (+185)

Last season I gave out Tech 100-1 on “Bet On It” as a crazy long shot to win the National Championship. This season, I’m doing the opposite.

This 10.5 win total was built around Brendan Sorsby, ESPN's No. 1-ranked transfer and a $5 million-plus signing instead the Red Raiders get Will Hammond, a redshirt sophomore with exactly two career starts, and the number is still priced for a proven eleven-win passer who isn't on the team anymore. Hammond tore his ACL last October and isn't expected to be cleared for full contact until around August 21st. He's been throwing in 7-on-7s, but he'll take his first live hits of the year in a game that counts, and McGuire has hedged the timeline all offseason with "week one, if not for sure week two." ACL returns aren't linear, and a dual-threat whose rushing was a real part of his value is now running behind a repaired knee. Any setback in camp, any cautious week, and the offense leans on Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis.

The schedule looks easy... With the toughest team they face being Houston or Arizona. The Sorsby saga made Texas Tech the sport's villain with every Big 12 opponent circling them. Letdown and revenge spots multiply for a team the whole conference wants to end. Eleven wins demands near-perfection from a first-year starter, in a league gunning for them, with almost nothing going wrong across four months. Ask a good-not-great quarterback to be flawless behind a rebuilt knee and the likeliest outcome is nine wins, not eleven.