Kelly In Vegas

THE PLAY: Arkansas +3.5 (-115)

PLAY: ARKANSAS +3.5

This Top-25 matchup in DC tips at 1pm ET.

Arkansas looked fast in its opener, beating Pine Bluff 106-61 and running for 45 fastbreak points. Jeremiah Wilkinson had 23 on 7-of-11 shooting with five steals. Freshman Jordan Smith Jr. added 20 in the debut. Maper Maker, another freshman, grabbed eight rebounds in 22 minutes, and the Hogs won the glass 43-27. Yes, it was UAPB… but the pace and the length are real.

This is Virginia's third game on the season, they beat Northeastern 97-72 on Friday. The start was ugly, though: 2-of-10 from the field and 0-of-7 from three in the first eight minutes, with four turnovers. Johann Grunloh played on an injured right ankle.

Give me the Hogs in a coin-flip, neutral-site game.

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.0 (-110)

PLAY: Tampa Bay +6.5

Tampa Bay has won two straight by a combined 59-13 since Baker Mayfield returned from a fractured thumb. The Bucs ran for 258 yards at Carolina and a team-record 324 in a driving rain against Atlanta, with Bucky Irving going for 170 and Kenny Gainwell adding another 140.

The defense has been just as good. Tampa allowed 13 points and then zero in those two games, forcing eight turnovers, including four interceptions of Michael Penix Jr. last Sunday. Bijan Robinson managed only 76 yards on 19 carries.

Even at 3-5, this team hasn't been blown out. All five losses have come by one score.

Chicago is coming off a big Monday night win in Seattle, and now it flies home and turns around on six days for Sunday night. D'Andre Swift needed 27 carries to get 69 yards against the Seahawks, and the Bears' defense has given up 10 plays of 40 or more yards, the most in the league.

THE PLAY: New England Patriots -3.0 (-110)

PLAY: New England -3

Drake Maye is red-hot right now. Over his past five starts, he's tossed 14 TDs against just two picks with a 69% completion rate, including a surgical 16-of-20 performance for 199 yards and two scores in Miami last week.

New England sits at 5-3 with a big road win in Buffalo already banked, and they are a perfect 3-0 at home while allowing just 13 PPG in Foxborough. Plus, their rushing attack has eclipsed 130 yards in four of the last five.

Green Bay simply cannot run the ball, failing to crack 86 rushing yards in a single game all year. They are putting way too much weight on Jordan Love's shoulders. On the road, this offense hasn't put up more than 22 points. Josh Jacobs carried 21 times for just 39 yards against Carolina last week.

To make matters worse, Love's top weapon Christian Watson (708 yards, 6 TDs) suffered a broken rib against Carolina on Thursday. Even though he toughed it out to finish the game, his health for Sunday is a major question mark.