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Last updated Jun 5, 2:31 PM EDT
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NBA | (517) Denver Nuggets at (518) Miami Heat: Michael Porter Jr. Points + Rebounds | 8:30pm EDT - Jun 7/2023 |
The PLAY: Michael Porter Jr. Points + Rebounds Over 21.5 (-125)
Coming right back with this play which despite not cashing on Sunday, has done so in seven of the last 10 Nuggets games. Oddsmakers immediately reacted here with what they saw last and reduced this prop total back to a very doable 21.5. Now that they saw 48 minutes of it, expect Denver to counter the Miami defensive scheme change designed to slow down Michael the Nuggets supporting cast. Michael Porter Jr. in particular seemed a bit tentative which HC Michael Malone will likely correct for Game #3. Porter did have six rebounds last game which gives him an average of 9.1 over the Nuggets last 10 playoff games recording double digits in five of those. His eight FG attempts last game were his second lowest amount this post season so look for the opportunities to rise back closer to his average of 12 per game. Porter Jr. should also see a correction in his three point shooting after back-back abnormal production. Size advantage is still there for him in all offensive aspects plus defensive rebounding so expect this result land more in the 27 P&R he posted in Game #1 (14 pts/13 rebs). Good spot to take advantage of perceived overreaction and play “Over” the adjusted 21.5 number.
Prediction: Michael Porter Jr. Points + Rebounds Over 21.5 (-125)
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Consultant Bio
Rob Veno has been entrenched in the sports handicapping community for 28 years. He was a major component in the success of Sportsmemo from its inception as a daily radio show in 1998. His 20* Bluechip releases have become synonymous with success and he’s carved a place for himself among the nation’s elite handicappers. Rob’s fundamental analysis of football, basketball and baseball on the college and pro levels has him regarded as one of the best in the business at breaking down games. Rob began to make an imprint on the Las Vegas scene in the mid-1990’s with his weekly football and basketball newsletter which contained game selections and analysis. Las Vegas’ Gambler’s Book Club along with sportsbooks on and off the strip carried the publication which expanded his recognition. He was subsequently invited into Las Vegas’ most prestigious handicapping contests of that time, the Stardust Invitational in 1996 and 2004 and the Sunset Station Invitational in 2000. A veteran of sports handicapping radio, Rob began in 1992 by co-hosting a weekly Friday night show at 840 AM KVEG. He went on to do numerous live shows as a guest analyst from casino sportsbooks across the Las Vegas valley working with a litany of respected hosts and the most recognized handicappers in the business. Rob finally settled in as one of the mainstays on the daily Vegas Sportswire betting show which ultimately became the famed Sportsmemo Radio Show and subsequent Podcast. His expertise has been heard on radio stations across the country over the years as he’s done a multitude of guest analyst segments. Rob joined WagerTalk in the summer of 2020 and has quickly become a prominent member of their world class handicapping roster. Rob is a Connecticut native and after spending 11 years in Las Vegas from 1991-2002 he now resides outside of Philadelphia with his wife.