Rob Veno

THE PLAY: LSU -6.0 (-110)

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(125) LSU at (126) South Carolina   (Game Analysis In Show Notes Form Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Side

Play: LSU -6.0 (-110)

Date/Time: Sep 14, 2024 12:00 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

LSU @ South Carolina - (Open: LSU -7.5 & 51.5) / Current: LSU -7 & 48.5)

South Carolina?

Scraped by ODU here at home 23-19 AND

ODU got beat 20-14 last week by East Carolina

LW vs Kentucky…South Carolina Offense which currently sits #124 out of 134 FBS teams

13 FD / 252 TY / 79 rushing / QB Lanorris Sanders = jury still out on him

17 points on drives of 43 / 20 /2 yards

South Carolina Defense played inept Kentucky offense   

LSU off of Nicholls State game 44-21

Defense in 3RD game of new system with bye week to get more acclimated

Loss of John Emery hurts the running game so pass game will take center stage

LSU had 4 guys take carries last week and Nussmeier had a couple too

Thunder & Lightning Kaleb Jackson & Josh Williams now in their 2nd game should improve

Conference wise its important for both…season wise it’s crucial for LSU 

PLAY: LSU -6

THE PLAY: Mississippi State Total Over 34.5 (-115)

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(181) Toledo at (182) Mississippi State   (Game Analysis In Show Notes Form Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Team Total

Play: Mississippi State Total Over 34.5 (-115)

Date/Time: Sep 14, 2024 7:30 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

Toledo @ Mississippi State 

Mississippi State 2H rally last week at Arizona State

Down 27-3 at Halftime / Win 2H 20-3

Problems 

Couldn’t run 24 yds on 27 carries – Couldn’t stop the run 346 ry on 57 carries 6.1ypc

Couldn’t get into ASU’s backfield 1 sack & 2 TFL / Couldn’t keep ASU out of their backfield 3 sacks & 7 TFL

Lost the line of scrimmage by 5.2 yards (6.1-0.9) - rushing + sack yardage lost

Toledo

Beat UMass 38-23 despite only 12 FD & -126 in total yardage (258-384) – LOST TOP 44:21-15:39 (-28:42)

QB Tucker Gleason terrible but productive (8/23/175/3 TD’s/0 int) – 21.9 yards per completion but 34.8 completion% 

Toledo Quick Strike = 73 & 40 yd TD passes + 98 yd KO return 

Allowed no backfield havoc & their defense produced backfield havoc  5 Sacks & 15 TFL!

But it was against UMass – Mississippi State trenches a different story AND

If Tysen Phommachanh can go 26/40/259 then Blake Shapen who threw for 286 last week may go for 300+ 

Line & Total show us oddsmakers have this posted as -11/58 indicating a projected 34.5-23.5 final 

Mississippi State should get to 35 here so…

PLAY: Mississippi State Team Total Over 34.5

THE PLAY: 1H Total Over 27.5 (-105)

4 WEEKS OF CFB & NFL FOR UNDER $50 PER WEEK! - 30 Days Of Football For Under $7 Per Day!

Not only will this give you 30 days of both CFB and the NFL from Rob, BUT…with an all-access package, you get the selections immediately when they are loaded during the week, allowing the best chance to capture line value!
 

Get 30 days of both CFB and the NFL for only $199, which is a savings of over 20%!

(129) Boston College at (130) Missouri   (Game Analysis In Show Notes Form Below)

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: 1H Total

Play: 1H Total Over 27.5 (-105)

Date/Time: Sep 14, 2024 12:45 PM / Line Provider: Consensus

Boston College @ Missouri 

Can Boston College Offensive Front Push Missouri DL Around Like They Did To Florida State?

52 rushes for 263 yards (5.1 per carry) 

39:09-20:51 Time Of Possession Advantage (+18:18 Advantage)

Basically took 1 quarter & almost 3 1/2 minutes away from FSU

BC Play Calling % in that game = 76.5% run & 23.5% pass

Battle Of Tempo’s & Game Score Dictates That

Boston College will play extremely slow offensively if their either ahead, tied or down 1 score

Mizzou plays offense much quicker & they create far more offensive problems for BC than Florida State did

Tigers OL is a force and once Missouri can establish the run opponents are in a bind and especially here now that…  

Missouri WR room healthy 

Luther Burden Illness during last week’s game is cleared

Theo Wease Jr. took a hit (shoulder) during last week’s game where he had 13 catches – 149 yards last week             

Missouri vs. Dual Threat QB Thomas Castellanos

Castellanos was not asked to do much throwing the football vs FSU but he was effective going 10/16/106/2 TD/0 int) 

Ran almost as much as he threw (14 ra/81ry/5.2 ypc/TD) = (+2 pa / +25 py / +1 pass TD)

No discredit to CJ Ogbanna & Jayden Johannsen BUT…

Missouri has not faced a QB anywhere near as multi talented as Castellanos yet (Murray State & Buffalo)   

Final Look

Strength of schedule thus far tells us a couple things…

Missouri is totally untested (Home vs. Murray State & Buffalo)

Boston College passed an AWAY test already in Tallahassee vs a desperate FSU squad (How good FSU is at QB & DL obviously a tad over rated)

So can QB Brady Cook and the Tigers DL stand up to BC in those areas…can they contain QB Thomas Castellanos

Key here is absolutely getting out in front, not letting off the gas pedal and forcing BC to play out of character in “catch up” mode

HC Bill O’Brien won’t panic but come 2H if the grinding style doesn’t have enough possessions left he’ll have to go airborne

Mizzou has obviously held back the first two weeks…pulling starters in Week 1 and having 38-0 walkthrough last week vs Murray State

Missouri QB & WR’s are major upgrade to what BC has seen… DJU has mediocre accuracy and their perimeter weapons aren’t Burden & Wease

Can BC back door at +16 vs. what’s now being labeled as the “Death Row Defense” 

In The End 

Weather no longer an issue here so looking at 1H Over …Feel defenses might be on the short end of this early

Mizzou likely to throw haymakers right from the outset that can result in scores while BC OL and QB Castellanos will surprise Missouri with how good they are

Need 28 to get home in this one making 14-14 & 21-7 available BUT see 30+ in a lot of key score combinations as the verdict (17-13 / 17-14 / 20-10 / 21/10 etc…)

PLAY: 1H Total Over 27.5 (-105)