The Prez

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Under 43.0 (-110)

Pitt +1.5 vs Atl (42)

• This Falcons team is a hard team to play against. When their run game is on they are a tough team to beat.
• The issue they will face this Sunday is Pitt’s good D – especially with Watt back and rolling.
• I also am a fan of Pickett and think he will be a really good QB moving forward.
• With that said, I have to take Atlanta here and I will do it on the Money Line.
• I know I made the mistake of betting against Pitt on Monday night, but this Falcons team is different to that crappy Indy team.
• This Falcons team is playing for the playoffs, as their division sucks ass and there is no reason they don’t get it done Sunday.
• The Falcons could have beaten Wash last week but didn’t get it done and are 1 loss behind the Bucs for the lead in their division.
• I also like the Under in this game – 42 seems pretty high for these 2 teams.
• Atlanta averages 22 points per game, but cannot pass the ball (2nd worst in the league), while Pitt averages 17 points per game (5th worst).
• This game has 17-13 written all over it
• Lean – Atlanta on ML
• Lean – Pitt/Atl Under 42

The PLAY: Total Over 46.5 (-110)

Mia +4 vs SF (46.5)

• What an interesting game that is for sure.
• There is no reason these 2 teams can’t play each other again in February, but that is a long shot especially for Miami, regardless of how good they are playing right now.
• SF on the other hand are a legit Superbowl contender, but the issue is they just can’t put up a ton of points – they can’t break a game open and put their foot down.
• While you have teams like KC and Buffalo averaging over 4 TDs a game, SF averages 22 points a game – that is a substantial difference. 
• Miami with Tua missing a ton of games averages just under 26 points a game and have put up 30, 39, 35, 31, and 46 points in their last 5 games – wow – they might have the best offense in football right now.
• This is a game of strength on strength with Miami’s amazing offense going up against a Lights out D. 
• SF has allowed 0 points in the 2nd half in 4 games in a row which is insane – and 0 points for the last 6 quarters.
• SF is #1 in points allowed 15.7 a game, 11th in stopping the pass and are #1 in stopping the run.
• So, what the hell do we do in this game – whose pace is it going to be.
• Here is what we know using history as an example – a strong D is better than a strong Offense – when push comes to shove pitching wins Championships, Goaltending wins Cups and great defenses win Bowls. 
• BUT – when SF played KC they allowed 44 points and that is really the only offensive comparable this season. 
• I have to think that Miami will get their points – not 35 or 39, but at least 21-24 which means SF needs 27 to cover that number. 
• So, from my perspective, the only way SF covers the number is if they get a minimum of 27 points and will likely need more.
• And we have seen SF put up points – they have put up over 30 3 times in their last 7 games and are averaging just under 23 points a game.
• I know this was long lol – but a fun game to take a part and an interesting one.
• I say if we take the dog and the over, we have a really good shot at 2-0 and a worse case of 1-1. 
• Lean – Miami +4
• Lean – Miami/SF Over 46.5