The Prez

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Over 40.0 (-110)

• Don’t look now, but here comes the Rams.
• They have won 3 in a row and are in the playoff hunt and their offense has just put up 36 and 37 in their last 2 games.
• This Total is very very low and honestly either of these teams can get within 7 points of this total themselves.
• Before Baltimore won their last game 20-10, they had scored 34, 31, 37, 31 and 38 points - if they get anywhere near those numbers again, this game flys over the total.
• I know people think the Baltimore D is great, but they really aren’t - they are good even really good - but not great. They allowed Cincy to put up 20 with Browning playing half the game and Clev put up 33 with no-one playing QB. Even Arizona 5 games ago put up 24 on them.
• Sure Baltimore is leading the league in points allowed at 15.6 per game, but that is because of 3 games - holding Seattle to 3, Det to 6 and Cle to 3. Every other game saw at least 16 points scored and 3 games out of the last 5 they allowed 20 or more points.
• Balt averages 27 points per game and the Rams 22 points per game - that combined is a TD more than this current total.
• There is no way this total should be less than 46.5 and we are going to take advantage of that.
• 23-20 gets us Over and we know Baltimore will put up more than 23. Let’s assume they get their average of 27 points a game, the Rams then have to score 16 to go over. The Rams have scored more than 16 in 9 of their last 10 games and as discussed scored 36 and 37 in their last 2 games.
• This is a shocking total to me but I don’t know what I am missing here. Other than Mark Andrews, both teams are healthy and ready to go.
• For the record, I like the Rams here as well, but the bet is the Over.
• Rams/Balt Over 40

The PLAY: Total Under 40.5 (-110)

• When in doubt - Bet the Under - that is a slogan I live by and you can actually get a shirt with that slogan at Wagermerch.com - use promo code Prez and get 20% off your 1st purchase.
• Anyway - this game is an Under to me and here is why.
• Let’s start with Minny who are currently 2-8 in their last 10 to the Under. They have scored 30 points in their last 2 games and allowed 33 points.
• We have seen this Dobbs story play out many times. Comes to a new team plays amazing for a couple of games and then because Josh Dobbs again.
• I know they are getting Jefferson back this week (maybe), but I just cannot see this team getting to 20 points. Only KC has scored more than 20 points on this Raiders team in their last 4 games. The Raiders even held Miami to 20 and there is no way this Vikings offense is even close to the Dolphins.
• The Raiders are also 2-8 to the Under in their last 10 and have scored more than 17 points once in their last 6 games. In their last 10 games they have scored 21 once and 30 once and the rest were anywhere from 12-18 points. I cannot see the Raiders scoring 20 points on Sunday.
• This game has 17-13 written all over it which is 10 points below the total. I can see 20-17 at best which is still a FG under.
• I am not overthinking this play - both these teams play to the Under and that is were we are going.
• Min/Vegas Under 40.5