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Ronald Cabang
NFL Football
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Game Analysis:
Detroit enters Week 10 off a narrow 27–24 loss to Minnesota, but the numbers tell a more optimistic story. The Lions remain one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking top-10 in both EPA/play and success rate with positive values in both the run and pass game. That balance tends to travel, and their offensive rhythm should translate against a Washington defense that’s leaking 26 points per game. The Commanders, meanwhile, were routed 38–14 at Seattle and took major hits across the roster. QB Jayden Daniels dislocated his left elbow and is headed toward IR consideration, forcing Marcus Mariota into the starting role. With that downgrade at quarterback and multiple defensive concerns, Washington enters this matchup in a deflated emotional and personnel state.
From a matchup perspective, Detroit’s statistical edges are clear. The Lions’ offense comes with top tier EPA/play and EPA/dropback numbers, while their defense ranks towards the top of the league in at EPA/play allowed. Washington’s offense, now led by a backup quarterback, carries a flat EPA/play and a negative passing grade, which projects poorly against Detroit’s pass rush and coverage metrics. Even if Lions offensive line is dealing with some injuries, they still grades top-tier per PFF, giving Jared Goff time to work through progressions and support the run game. Washington’s best hope is to shorten possessions through QB runs and RPOs, but with their offensive line banged up and weapons thinned, sustaining drives against a top tier defensive success rate is a steep task.
Situationally, this also sets up as a classic bounce-back spot for Detroit. Road teams off a loss as a favorite facing a team in its second straight home game are 44-18-4 ATS since 2019... and Washington’s quarterback loss fits the historical mold for teams struggling to rally emotionally after losing their QB1 for the season. With a balanced, top-10 offense and elite defense by EPA, Detroit holds structural advantages on both sides of the ball. Play Lions -7.5, I see them winning this one by double digits.
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Will Rogers
NFL Football
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I had a disappointing loss with the Texans last Sunday after a difficult overtime defeat. It didn't help that quarterback CJ Stroud got injured. Stroud remains in concussion protocol and his status is still uncertain.
As of Monday, coach DeMeco Ryans said Stroud was "feeling a little bit better" and that “We'll see how the week goes and how he progresses throughout the week.”
Some perspective about these defenses: The Jaguars have given up 64 points their past two games. That's more than the Texans have allowed over their past five games.
Regardless of whether he plays or not, I believe the Texans will rebound and beat the Jaguars. Jacksonville narrowly secured a one-point victory on the road against Las Vegas in their last game, but before that, the Jaguars had lost their previous two games by a total score of 55-19. The Texans have arguably the best defense in the league, and the statistics certainly back that up. Play on Houston.
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Undoubtedly the favorite pick of bettors when they have no team preference, over/under picks set you up for a damned good time. Over/Under picks are simple - you just place your bet on the total score either being over or under a certain number that sportsbooks provide you with. You can choose alternate over/unders from the main line, which can give you longer odds, but also more lucrative wins. But which are of course more risky than the featured over/under line!
For whatever reason, setting a stick in the sand on a point total and betting above or below that number provides incredibly exciting NFL betting.
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If you placed a $100 NFL moneyline pick on your heavy underdog team at odds of +550, you would win $550, for a total payout of $650. If you placed a moneyline bet on a moneyline pick that is a favorite, you may see odds of -125 or so, which would mean your $100 bet wins you $80, for a total payout of $180. Not bad for just picking the favorite to win!
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One of the most popular and growing types of NFL bets is player props. The working theory among bettors who wager on prop bets is that due to the sheer volume of NFL prop bets, there exists a possibility that the lines are soft on certain player props. And if bet on correctly, you, the bettor, can come out ahead.
WagerTalk experts pick and choose carefully among available NFL prop bets, grabbing you NFL picks from their research. You can find some truly obscure, but winnable prop bet picks each week, from number of yards rushing a 2nd string running back might pull off to the over/under on the number of tackles that a linebacker might register that week.
WagerTalks leading NFL tipsters have posted extremely impressive records with their free prop bets, check out Gianni the Greek or Teddy Covers for good starting points!
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| Type of NFL Pick | Does WagerTalk Offer This Type of NFL Pick? |
| Moneyline | Yes |
| Over/Under | Yes |
| ATS/Spread | Yes |
| Team Props | Yes |
| Player Props | Yes |
| Futures Betting Picks | Yes |
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