Best NFL Bets Today, Free NFL Picks & NFL Predictions For September 7

Attacking the afternoon slate of the week 1 NFL card with an under wager in the Broncos vs Seahawks matchup. First, we need to go over the peripheral NFL total market betting numbers over the last two years. NFL week 1 games have gone an astonishing 9-23 (72%) to the under in week 1 games over the past two seasons. We are using these strong under tendencies to our advantage and adding some unique metrics in this particular matchup to our advantage. 

Denver is starting rookie QB Bo Nix. As an Auburn alumni and a handicapper that concentrates heavily on the former PAC 12 conference, I have seen a ton of Bo Nix over the last half decade. An outstanding athlete, that can make huge plays with his feet. However, the young QB can struggled throwing the ball down the field. I believe that will hinder the Broncos offense hitting big plays on the road in a tough environment. 

Seattle comes in a perfect (0-3) to the under in game #1 the past three seasons. Denver a perfect (0-5) the past 5 seasons to the under in game #1 of the season. This is one of the loudest atmospheres in the NFL and the kickoff to the NFL season in the pacific northwest. The matchup likely plays as a defensive battle with the total falling short of reaching the 40's. Bet under. 

This is a 2% NFL client pick. Also, giving it out as a free pick for week 1 in the NFL. 

- Checkout Drew's All Sports Pass and get every play at a discounted rate. Cheers to a profitable football campaign. 

Some Saturday looks… 
 

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The Arizona Cardinals have gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 as an away underdog of 6.0 or greater when playing in Game 1 through 9. They lost those 4 by an average of 15.7 points per game. Their defensive line looks to be a liability and look for Buffalo to have a huge day running the football.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Buffalo entering the season. Especially at the wide receiver position where they're replacing last year's starter Stefon Diggs via trade and Gabriel Davis by way of free agency. However, they still have a genuine start at quarterback in Josh Allen, a solid offensive line, and a trio of very good running backs. Despite the loss of last year's starting safety tandem of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer the defense will more than hold their own. By the way, Buffalo is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite in their last 6 when playing in games 1 through 5 and had a massive average victory margin of 31.2 points per contest.

Give me the Buffalo Bills minus points.

Sunday 9/8 NFL Best Bet: Rams vs. Lions 8:20 ET

• All 5% Best Bets are 24-10 (71%) with a net profit of $6500 since 2/4/2024.
• Ross Benjamin's CFB/NFL picks combined were a #2 money maker at Wager Talk last season.

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Diontae Johnson might be a new face in the locker room in Carolina, but I expect him to be a vital part of their offense and that starts in week 1. The Panthers are expecting improvement from Bryce Young at QB, and the work to improve their offensive line should help him out – The Saints have a respectable defense, but they actually ranked #23 in yards per completion last season and with the style that Diontae Johnson plays, he's usually good for at least one deep ball reception. This number of 52.5 is more based on previous performances and not the situation that Johnson finds himself in with his new team. He's the clear WR1 and he'll be targeted more than enough times to get us this win. 

Look for a point off emphasis to be getting Diontae Johnson involved early on in this ball game. 

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New England's projected struggles have been well-documented over the offseason, but things aren't all rainbows and butterflies in Cincinnati at the moment. The Bengals lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan, who is now the head coach of the Titans. Wide receiver Tee Higgins did not practice on Friday. Fellow wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase has rejoined the team, but missed the entire preseason and his status is unknown for Sunday. The Bengals went 0-3 in the preseason and were out-scored by a combined mark of 71-31. Yes it's the preseason, but when you put all of that in the blender, that doesn't paint a sunny portrait at Paycor Stadium. Something feels a little off on the shores of the Ohio River heading into the 2024 season. Jerod Mayo has been learning under the Bill Belichick coaching tree since 2019 (and long before that as a player). The expectations are that he's going to employ a similar hard-nosed style as his predecessor. Over the course of a 17-game season, that strategy probably is not going to go over well on a team that is projected to be the worst in football this season. But in Week 1 after hearing about how bad you are going to be all offseason, we wouldn't be shocked if Coach Mayo had this team buzzing for the opener.

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Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 1.5 TD Passes vs Washington (-140)

We like the over in this contest, and with an assist from Andy Lang, found an ideal prop bet to complement it. Last season, 13 of 17 quarterbacks cleared this total against the Commanders' defense, so blindly playing this last year would have resulted in a 13-4 record. The last six quarterbacks that Washington faced on the road last season all cleared this mark. Mayfield cashed this prop in 12 of his 19 games last season, and the most important thing is that his receiving corps is healthy heading into the start of this season. The Bucs only rushed for eight total touchdowns last season while throwing for 28. Both offenses would probably be wise to use some tempo against opposing defenses that are introducing some new pieces. During his time in Arizona, new Commanders' offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury ran the fastest offense in the league in both situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate. This game should be played at a brisk tempo, which should give Mayfield some good opportunities to hit this mark.

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With a fully healthy Kyler Murray and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., the Cardinals offense is set to be even more potent. Against a Bills defense now without Matt Milano, the Cardinals should find it easier to move the ball, leveraging Murray's versatility and Harrison’s explosiveness to exploit a Buffalo defense that lacks cohesion. Not to mention they have James Conner leading the ground game.

The Cardinals will capitalize on the Bills' unsettled offense. Buffalo’s best route to success would have been attacking Arizona’s vulnerable secondary, but their new-look receiving corps may struggle to sync up quickly. Arizona's defensive strategy should involve applying pressure on Josh Allen and taking advantage of Buffalo’s less-than-ideal focus, with the Bills likely looking ahead to their critical upcoming matchup against the Dolphins on Thursday.

The Cardinals are well-positioned to cover due to their underestimated offense. With the Bills potentially distracted by the lookahead spot, Arizona could control the game tempo and exploit mismatches.

I’ll take the Cardinals plus the points.

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Car +4 vs NO (41.5)

• This division is a mess - these teams suck and honestly, anytime 2 crappy teams plays against each other and you can get more than a FG, take the points.
• With that said, the Under is the play here, as who the hell is going to score.
• I know it was last year, but the Panthers are bringing back almost the same offense that put up 0 points in their last 2 games.
• And now the Panthers have to play against a top 10 D unit. Last year the Saints allowed under 20 points per game and this is the strength of their team. This Panthers team will be hard pressed to get to 13 points.
• Now, the only real issue from a numbers perspective is the Panthers D is just as bad as their O. This was the 4th worst unit last year. BUT 2 things - 1 they have a whole new D look and scheme with new faces and leaders.
• Now with that said, I do not think they are going to be a great unit, but they are playing the Saints on Sunday and this Saints team will run a very conservative offense.
• Carr is prone to making mistakes and I think we see the Saints play slow small ball - they want to hold the ball and move the clock and escape with 20-17 type wins.
• Both teams will be looking to just not make mistakes.
• Car/NO Under 41.5

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Dallas +2.5 vs Cle (42)

• Okay I don’t really get this line. I know the Browns have a great D (#1 last year in yards allowed), but they did let teams score more than 21 points a game which put them in the middle of the pack. As for their Offense - man Watson might end up crippling this franchise - not only is his contract the worst in history, but he might continue to totally suck.
• Don’t be sleeping on this Dallas team - I know a lot of talking heads do not like them this year, but this is a team that had the 5th best D in the league in allowing points (which from my perspective, is the most important of all D things) and the #1 team in all of football in scoring points.
• So if you look at both sides of this game - Cleveland’s D is worse than Dallas’ and Clevelands offense is like a tootsie roll compared to Dallas’ Toblerone.
• I know these are last year’s numbers, but I dont think Cleveland did much to fix their team, except get Watson back and Dallas didn’t exactly loose everyone of their roster.
• And don’t forget their best offensive weapon Mr Chubb is out for the next 4 weeks.
• Bottom line - Dallas has the best player on the field on D in Micah, the best QB by far, the best WR, the better D unit, the much better O unit and are a veteran team that knows it needs to win out of the gate.
• Maybe the only reason the Boys are a dog here was they went 4-5 on the road last year - but keep in mind they blew the Giants 40-0 Week 1 last season.
• This is a no-brainer pick for me.
• Dallas +2.5 vs Clev

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(473) Washington Commanders at (474) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4% Washington Commanders +3.5 (-115) “This is an actual 4% client All Access Play”

Jayden Daniels certainly has a lot of potential, and having Kliff Kingsbury as his OC is a great advantage for his development. Kingsbury's offensive schemes could be just what Daniels needs to get comfortable and thrive in the NFL. Dan Quinn's defensive prowess, combined with the addition of veteran players like Bobby Wagner, should make the defense formidable.  3.5 points is to many in this game, give me the points.  

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Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110)…(3%) Good to +3.5

In a matchup featuring two teams with lower expectations for the season, I believe there's a strong case to support the underdog. The Panthers have made significant improvements to their offensive line during the offseason, and I anticipate a breakout season for Bryce Young at the quarterback position. Despite their 1-5 record in divisional match-ups last season straight up, the Panthers covered the spread in half of those meetings, signalling their potential for improvement. In contrast, the Saints appear to be heading in the wrong direction. 

Statistically, divisional underdogs in the early weeks of September have historically been a profitable bet, boasting a 58.6% ATS record since 2005-06. Notably, September divisional underdogs at +5 or shorter are 60.2% ATS when the total closes under 43.5 points. When the total is under 42.5 points, their ATS record jumps to 61.2%. 

Moreover, considering Derek Carr's lackluster performance as a favorite, with a 21-37-2 ATS record when closing as the favored team, including a 4-8-1 ATS record last season, the Panthers appear to be in a favorable position. 

With the addition of receiver Diontae Johnson and the maturation of several key players, the Panthers are poised to keep this game competitive and potentially secure a victory. 

Based on these insights, I strongly recommend considering a play on the Panthers at +4.

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Take Atlanta (#458)

The Falcons were underachievers from start to finish last year; plagued by poor quarterback play and an inability to win tight games; just 1-5 SU down the stretch in games decided by less than a TD.  With new head coach Raheem Morris and new starting QB Kirk Cousins, there’s ample reason to think that Atlanta is primed to take a big step forward in 2024 following three consecutive 7-10 campaigns; starting right here in their opener.  Pittsburgh got blown out on opening day last year and they’re not likely to have it easy this year either.  Russell Wilson has looked washed up in Seattle and Denver over the past two years; I’m not convinced a third stop is going to revitalize his career, especially considering Pittsburgh’s continuing offensive line woes.  Expect the home team to take care of business on opening day.  Take the Falcons.

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This looks like a lot of points for what should be a close game. These teams last met in 2022. Seattle won 17-16. The previous meeting was a 3-point win by the Broncos. The one before that went to OT. The Seahawks were 9-8 last season. However, five of those wins came by four points or less. Another victory was by six, in OT. When they win, the games tend to be close. The Broncos were 8-9 but four of their losses came by five points or less. Though they're not expected to make the playoffs, the Broncos were 3-0 in the preseason. Only the Bears scored more than Denver and they played an extra game. Grab the points. 

Ben Burns is WagerTalk's #1 football handicapper in 2024. He's also #1 at the NFL since Dec. 2022. 

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Cincinnati to win the AFC North

Strength of schedule is a major contributor to how an NFL team performs on the field. An easy schedule can turn a mediocre team into a division winner, while a tough schedule can turn the most talented team into an also ran. 

Cincinnati has the 6th easiest schedule in the league. Despite being in the same division, the Ravens have the 29th, the Browns the 30th and the Steelers the 32nd easiest schedules. Or to put it a different way, three of the four toughest schedules in the league. 

The Bengals get to play some of the expected worst teams in the league. New England, Washington, Carolina, the NY Giants, Las Vegas, Tennessee and Denver. They also are coming off a season in which Joe Burrow was lost for the year after week 10. The team ranked 26th in quarterback health. He just wasn’t healthy last year, and yet the Bengals won 9 games. 

With a healthy QB and an easy schedule, we see this club having a major step up on the competition. 

PLAY CINCINNATI TO WIN THE AFC NORTH

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Rams win NFC West +350 (1%) 

+395 Superbook, +375 Circa. SF was fortunate with injuries last year & they seem to be on their last gasp B4 having to break the bank for Purdy next year. Speaking of Purdy, he's been darn good, do it again. McCaffrey has been injury free way too long and starting the season with a little dent in the armour. Ayhuk may be ok, but his issues are a distraction and nuisance. SF is a solid team and very well finish the job this season, but if the slip up, I feel the Rams are equipped to pick up the pieces. Stafford is clearly capable and has more than an adequate offense to surround him. Top notch players left and right. The defense was inexperienced last year and tasted the much needed feeling of losing in the playoffs. Always a bitter pill that motivates. I believe this price is to wide for SF & I think the price should be closer to +250-275 tops

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3% Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins (-110 widely available) 

I bet it this way: 2.5% on Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins, 0.5% on Cowboys to Make the Playoffs: No’ (+200)

3% Take the Dallas Cowboys UNDER 

Every sharp dollar that’s shown for Dallas since these season win totals opened has come for the Under.  Let’s join them before this win total gets bet down any further! 

The Cowboys have been kicking the can down the road for years when it comes to salary cap issues.  This past offseason, the woes became very real.  Dallas lost five starters in free agency but acquired only one -- 32 year old LB Eric Kendricks, now playing for his third team in three years.

Dallas has nowhere to do but down.  They’ve won 36 games over the past three seasons - only the Chiefs have more victories.  Despite all of that success, head coach Mike McCarthy (not one of my favorite game managers, to put it mildly) has not been re-signed, in the final year of his contract.  QB Dak Prescott, too, has an expiring contract (and a massive $55 million cap hit this year). Prescott led the league in TD passes last year and finished #2 in MVP voting - he can’t play any better.  In fact, he’s likely to play worse with an OL that lost another two starters this offseason, quite possibly starting a pair of rookies in September.  

Cowboys star WR Cee Dee Lamb skipped mini-camps this spring and he’s talking about sitting out training camp this summer; trying to negotiate a new contract.  I don’t worry about running backs, but it’s worth noting that Dallas might have the weakest group of RB’s in the NFL this year.  The highest scoring offense in the league in 2023 is primed to take a step back in 2024, especially with all kinds of rumors flying around Vegas regarding Prescott’s health.  Behind Prescott?  Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, neither of whom I’d trust to win an NFL game this year.

Dallas lost elite defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in the offseason; now the head coach in Washington.  Da’Ron Bland set an NFL record with FIVE interceptions returned for touchdowns last year - he won’t do that again.  They finished +10 in turnover margin last year -- only 16 giveaways -- again, difficult numbers to repeat.  Perennial defensive POY candidate Micah Parsons has his own contract issues; expecting an extension.  CB Trevon Diggs is coming off a torn ACL.  Dallas is not primed to be a run stuffing team either; mediocre in that regard last season.

So we’ve got a head coach and a QB who both could be gone next year; playing on a team with severe salary cap restrictions that has overachieved in each of the last two seasons.  Then we look at the schedule and it gets even worse.  NFC East teams play the AFC North and NFC South.  Their three extra games are all tough: Detroit, San Francisco and Houston.  Dallas has only one home game between Baltimore on September 22nd and Philly on November 10th.  

My numbers show that last year -- using my power rating for their opponent the week the game was played -- the Cowboys played a shockingly weak schedule, second weakest of any playoff team.  Don’t expect that to be the case in 2024; a year where Dallas is primed to decline from recent seasons.  And it’s surely worth noting that teams lined at 9.5 wins or higher since the NFL Schedule was increased to 17 games have gone 22-14 to the Under.  Teams with nine home games - like the Cowboys -- lined at ten wins or higher? 9-3-1 to the UNDER with a 17-game schedule; an emerging trend worth riding here!  Take the Cowboys UNDER.

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The Rams finished 2023 at 10-7, winning their last 4.  Losing Aaron Donald is a big blow, but they addressed it in the draft with Verse and Fiske D-Lineman out of Florida State and still had nine additional picks.  It is the top 5 offensive unit and the top 5 head coach (some would argue it is the top 3).  If they can keep Stafford upright and healthy, they'll have a chance to do some serious damage.  I love the middle of their schedule at Chicago, vs Green Bay, vs Las Vegas, vs Minnesota, at Seattle, vs Miami and at New England.  I'm planning on 5+ wins during that 7-game stretch.  With a possible San Fran Super Bowl hangover, I have faith in this play.

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Gibbs had 10 rushing TD's last year, and he started off his rookie season slow with no rushing TD's, but he finished very strong with 5 rushing TD's in the last 5 games of the season, and he had a rushing TD in all 3 playoff games.  The Lions love rushing the ball into the endzone when they get in close as they had 27 rushing TD's in 2023 and only 30 passing TD's, and in 2022 they rushed for 23 TD's and passed for 29.  David Montgomery will certainly get his fair share of rushing TD's, but there are enough to go around for both guys.  

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2% Take Cincinnati - New England UNDER (#463-464)

The Bengals offense hasn’t clicked on all cylinders in Week 1 even once during the Zac Taylor era.  Cinci has been held to 24 points or less in regulation in each of their five Week 1’s under Taylor, averaging less than 17 points per game.  I’m not expecting 2024 to be dramatically different for a team that has consistently been underprepared on offense for their opener against a defensive minded foe like New England in the first game of the Jarod Mayo era.

The Patriots, on paper, have the single worst offense in the NFL.  We could see Drake Maye making his NFL debut on the road vs a good defense, which equates to a very conservative gameplan.  We could see Jacoby Brissett behind a weak offensive line throwing to a weak receiving corps. Either way, I’m not expecting touchdowns in bunches.  Early reports from mini-camp have detailed all kinds of issues for this limited attack; issues that are not likely to be solved on opening day.

There’s only one reason to make this bet now and lock up your money all summer with this wager -- getting the ‘best of the number’.  With 43’s still available and 42.5’s still widely available, let’s lock in now for a game likely to close at 42 or lower.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 2% at 42.5 or higher, 1.5% at 42 or lower

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C.J. Stroud took a 3 win team the year before to the playoffs behind some stellar quarterback play that made him look like a veteran. With 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, he showed the ability to make plays without turning the ball over. Now the Texans add Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to a team we’re “buying” heading into the 2024 season. Even though Anthony Richardson will most likely be back, this is a line we can jump on now as Houston starts the season with a win over Indy. Take the Texans ML. 

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