Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions October 9

CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. MIAMI DOLPHINS — UNDER 43

I like the Under 43 points in Sunday's Bengals-Dolphins matchup. Miami's offensive struggles have been a major problem all season, and I don't expect the Dolphins to suddenly find their scoring touch against a Cincinnati team that can pressure the quarterback.

The biggest reason to like the Under is Miami's inability to generate points. The Dolphins are averaging just 11.5 points per game, ranking last in the NFL. They have struggled to sustain drives and turn possessions into touchdowns, and that makes it difficult to see them contributing enough to push this game over 43.

Cincinnati also has a potentially significant advantage on the defensive front. The Bengals have recorded 14 sacks through four games, ranking among the league's best, while Miami has managed only four sacks. If Cincinnati can pressure Miami's quarterback and force hurried decisions, the Dolphins could have another long afternoon offensively.

The Bengals have their own offensive concerns heading into Sunday. Ja'Marr Chase is dealing with a concussion, while Tee Higgins has been sidelined by injuries. Both were absent from Wednesday's practice, and if either misses the game, Cincinnati could lose some of its explosive passing ability. That would make it harder for the Bengals to carry the scoring load themselves.

I also like the possibility of Cincinnati controlling the game once it gets a lead. The Bengals can lean on their running game, shorten possessions and force Miami to prove it can score consistently. With the Dolphins struggling to reach even 20 points, that is a favorable game script for the Under.

The key is that we don't need either defense to completely dominate. If Miami scores somewhere around 10–17 points and Cincinnati finishes in the mid-20s, this total stays below 43.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

This is a traditional two-team, six-point "Wong" teaser as we're taking both the Saints and Packers up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Here's why, in both instances, I prefer to tease the two sides ...

2% Teaser - New Orleans (1:00 ET) and Green Bay (1:00 ET) - The Saints were humiliated on Monday night, losing to the rival Falcons 45-24, in a game that was designed to commemorate the 20-year anniversary of the Superdome re-opening after Hurricane Katrina. So there should be a sense of desperation/motivation in New Orleans, especially coming off back to back home losses that leave the team at 1-3 SU. Before the season, many people tabbed the Saints as the favorite to win the NFC South. They've still got a shot, obviously, but falling behind on a weekly basis has haunted Kellen Moore's team. It would be a shock to see them lose three in a row at home. But what makes the teaser option so appealing is that each of the Saints' first three games were decided by seven points or less. I also seriously doubt Minnesota's ability to win by margin, given their offense ranks 31st in total yards and could again be without WR Justin Jefferson. While the Vikings are one of three teams still undefeated, they've scored just two touchdowns in the last three games and one of those was by the special teams!

This marks the first time since 2006 that the Packers aren't at least a three-point favorite at home vs. the Bears. That was the year the Bears went to the Super Bowl. Clearly, the Bears are the better team now, but they don't win by margin very often and it's a great value teasing the Packers up in this spot. Yes, Chicago should have won by a bigger margin last week vs. the Jets. They had 34 first downs while the Jets ran a total of only 32 plays! But the Packers also should have won by a bigger margin last week. They turned the ball over twice inside the 10-yard line in Tampa. It's pretty crazy that the Bears only closed -3.5 last week vs. the Jets (at home!) and are now favorites, on the road, against their arch rival. I get that Green Bay has issues, particularly along the offensive line, but Matt LaFleur is rarely a home dog. Remember the Bears are starting backup QB Tyson Bagent. 2% Teaser - New Orleans (must be +7.5 or higher) and Green Bay (must be +7.5 or higher).

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

Detroit has a strong bounce-back opportunity against an Arizona defense with few answers for what the Lions do best offensively.  Detroit ranks 3rd in offensive power and owns a substantial efficiency advantage through the air: +0.28 EPA per pass versus Arizona’s -0.03.  Jared Goff has been outstanding despite Detroit’s uneven 2-2 start, earning an 85.8 PFF grade while producing a 119.0 passer rating from a clean pocket and a low 0.56% turnover-worthy play rate.  The matchup is especially favorable because Arizona's defense grades poorly across the board, per PFF’s advanced metrics: 56.0 overall, 59.8 in run defense, 49.6 in tackling and just 48.2 in coverage.  Arizona’s coverage grade is particularly concerning against a Detroit passing game that boasts an 86.4 PFF grade and features clear matchup problems at Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta.  Detroit ranks fifth in EPA per dropback and has another favorable environment in Arizona on Sunday.

The underlying numbers from Detroit's 32-26 loss to Carolina are far more encouraging than the final score: Goff completed 32 of 52 passes for 412 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions, while Detroit generated 412 passing yards on 53 dropbacks.  Detroit's receiving usage was equally impressive, with Williams producing 102 yards, LaPorta 84, St. Brown 75, and Isaac TeSlaa 95, giving Goff four legitimate weapons to attack an Arizona secondary that has struggled badly in coverage.  The Lions are now sixth in EPA per dropback (+0.20), and their willingness to lean on the pass should maximize the biggest mismatch in this game.

Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett owns a respectable 79.0 PFF grade, but his efficiency collapses under pressure, where his passer rating falls to 38.2.  Brissett also ranks last among 30 qualified quarterbacks at only 5.4 yards per attempt.   Arizona's Week 4 performance reinforces that limitation: Brissett needed 35 attempts to generate only 166 passing yards while throwing three interceptions, and the Cardinals' passing offense ranks 23rd in EPA per dropback (-0.10).  The veteran signal caller now faces a Detroit stop unit ranked second in the league with an 81.6  PFF pass rush grade and first with an 85.2 PFF tackling grade.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database strongly reinforces the case for Detroit, with several high-performing systems converging on the Lions as a short road favorite coming off a loss.  The strongest angles center on Detroit’s bounce-back profile, its recent success under Dan Campbell, and its history of being a profitable road favorite in high-total games.

·        143-74 ATS (65.9%)  - Play On road favorites of -6 or less in Weeks 3-14 with totals of 46+ when their previous game went Over the total.  This powerful system has produced +61.6 units since 1989;

·        94-56 ATS (62.7%) - Road favorites of less than -7 coming off an ATS loss in a game that went Over are 62.7% ATS when the current total is 46 points or more;

·        114-77 ATS (59.7%) - Road teams coming off an upset road loss as favorites of less than six points have covered 59.7% of the time since 2000;

·        15-3 ATS (83.3%) - Detroit has been exceptional at rebounding from losses under Dan Campbell, covering 15 of 18 games following a defeat since November 2022;

·        50-28 ATS (64.1%) - The Lions are 64.1% ATS since 2020 when laying no more than seven points in games with totals of 45 points or more;

·        107-59 ATS (64.5%) - Teams that have gone three consecutive games without committing a turnover are 64.5% ATS against opponents that have committed at least three turnovers over their previous three games;

·        97-69 ATS (58.4%) - Teams coming off a loss after winning 11+ games the previous season are 58.4% ATS against opponents that won fewer than eight games the previous year;

·        50-27 ATS (64.9%) - Play Against home teams that won fewer than six games the previous season when they have allowed more points than expected in consecutive games and are coming off a double-digit loss without reaching both 100 rushing yards and 250 passing yards.

Detroit fits one of the strongest technical profiles on the Week 5 board: a quality team in a bounce-back spot, laying a manageable number on the road in a high-total game.  With a substantial quarterback advantage, a far more explosive passing attack, and an ideal matchup against one of PFF's lowest-graded coverage units, Detroit is positioned to rebound decisively on Sunday.  Lay the points with the Lions as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, October 11.

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

Take Atlanta (#476)

I’m not going to overthink this one.  The Ravens are coming off a win, playing on the road with their backup quarterback.  Snoop Huntley is no Lamar Jackson, to put it mildly.  Baltimore has back-2-back division games on deck after this, followed by a trip to Buffalo, making this their single LEAST important game for the next month.  Atlanta’s full season stats are lying; a completely different team since Michael Penix took over behind center in Week 3.  And when a team’s full season stats aren’t telling the true story, it can take weeks for the betting markets to catch up.  If I’m playin’, I’m layin’.  Take the Falcons.

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on LV.

The Raiders are off to impressive start, and even though they are coming off a home loss to Kansas City they did cover the spread. Kirk Cousins engineered a late touchdown drive to pull the Raiders within three. Cousins is tied for the league lead with 11 TD passes so far this season. Drake May on the other hand is also among the league leaders, but leading the NFL with seven INTs isn't nearly as impressive. The Pats benefited from a soft schedule last year, and that success hasn't translated so far in 2026.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

PLAY: STEELERS -2.5

On paper Indianapolis won by 17 in London…. but they played worse than the final score… The Colts’ first five drives against Washington went fumble, punt, punt, punt, interception. Their two touchdown drives started at the Washington 46 and the Washington 20. Daniel Jones finished 19-of-34 for 143 yards with no touchdowns, and the Colts averaged 3.9 yards per play against a team that committed 10 penalties and finished the game with its third quarterback.

Now they fly home from London and then off to Pittsburgh, against a Steelers team that hasn’t played since Thursday night at Cleveland. Pittsburgh gets 10 days to get ready for this one, and extra time has been good to this franchise. The Steelers have won nine straight games coming off a bye, and Mike McCarthy is 12-6 off a bye as a head coach. Indianapolis hasn’t thrown for more than 211 yards in a game this season, Alec Pierce is on injured reserve and Arden Key will miss time with a hamstring.

Pittsburgh lost in Cleveland but won the first downs and the time of possession, and all three Browns touchdowns came in one second-quarter stretch. Aaron Rodgers has six touchdown passes over his last two games, and Jaylen Warren has run for 220 yards on 34 carries in that stretch. At home the Steelers are 2-0. The last time Jones came to Pittsburgh, he threw three interceptions and the Colts turned it over six times in a 27-20 loss.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

FREE PICK on Detroit Lions (ATS) | Good until -6.0.

Detroit hasn't looked incredible this season so far either. But, I'm still anticipating better results this year opposed to last year's non-playoff season. Detroit's offense is definitely good enough for it to go far this season. It's the defense which is lacking and that could change this weekend. Arizona lost by double digits to a backup QB NYG team. The Cards lost to the Niners in the week before. Go with Detroit.

Released/revised 3 day(s) ago