Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions October 8

Denver and New York will play this game in London.  The Broncos come in off an upset comeback win in Philadelphia after being down 17-3.  That win looks better than it actually was.  The Eagles had underlying metrics that pointed towards them being ‘paper tigers’ and their lack of offense really showed up in this loss.  Denver doesn’t have an explosive offense either; they’ve scored 21 and 20 points in 2 of their last 3 games.  New York is 0-5 on the season after a blowout home loss to the Cowboys.  The Jets have faced a difficult schedule so far, especially the opposing offenses they were trying to stop.  New York doesn’t possess an offense that can trade points or rally when they get down, so the matchups have been to their detriment.  But this game is different as New York will now face an offense that won’t be able to steamroll them.  The line on this game is super inflated simply because of the records, and it presents some real value in taking the Jets plus the extra points.  Look for a close game throughout on Sunday, and the Jets actually have a legitimate shot at winning their first game of the season.

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Seattle won the last meeting 31-7 in October 2021 despite generating just 229 yards on offense. Jacksonville has won-and-covered each of its last three games, including a wild affair with the Chiefs on Monday night. This will be Seattle's second trip east this season after successfully handling a trip to Pittsburgh in Week 2. Jacksonville has been a tough team to trust in the Trevor Lawrence era (especially after a big win), but we believe this spread should be closer to a field goal. When healthy, the Seahawks' defense is one of the best in the league. But Seattle was missing four starters at the end of the shootout loss to the Bucs last week. Cornerbacks Tariq Woolen (concussion) and Devon Witherspoon (knee) are both questionable to return this week. The Jaguars historically do not have much of a homefield advantage at EverBank Stadium, but they are 7-1-1 against the spread in their last nine home games. And by the way, Jaguars' first-year head coach Liam Coen arrived in Jacksonville after serving as the Bucs' offensive coordinator. After watching what his former squad did against the Seahawks last week, Coen should have a pretty good idea of how he wants to attack Seattle's defense this week. 
Play Jacksonville.

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Game Analysis:

This AFC North matchup profiles as the kind of grinder where points and possessions both come at a premium, perfect conditions for a live underdog. The market sits Steelers -5 to -5.5 with a low total. Cleveland enters off a 21–17 London loss to Minnesota that saw rookie QB Dillon Gabriel manage the game cleanly (0 turnovers) behind a run-heavy plan that featured Quinshon Judkins’ first 100-yard day. Pittsburgh returns from a bye, healthier on defense, but the Steelers’ offense remains middling in both pace and efficiency, and a rested roster doesn’t automatically translate into scoring separation…especially in low-total spots like this one.

The matchup edges tilt toward Cleveland keeping this tight. The Browns’ defense, anchored by Myles Garrett and one of PFF’s top-graded fronts, should disrupt a Steelers offense that ranks middle-tier in yards per play and struggles when forced off script. Offensively, even if Gabriel’s turnover luck cools, the Browns’ run/pass sequencing and field-position control are ideal for catching points. Regression indicators support that…Cleveland’s red-zone stalls last week and Pittsburgh’s reliance on short fields both point toward tighter efficiency gaps than the spread implies.

Situationally, this is also a sharp fade spot for the home favorite. Early-season home favorites (Week 6 or earlier) whose next game is on Thursday are just 19-58-1 ATS (75.3% fade rate) since 2007, a strong historical angle against Pittsburgh here. Combine that with a sub-40 total and divisional familiarity, and +5 becomes a valuable number that captures multiple outcomes, including field-goal finishes and low-scoring drags. Pittsburgh does have the rest advantage and travel edge, but Cleveland’s defense and run game will keep this tight. I like Cleveland to stay within a field goal or potentially win this one outright.

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The #1 NFL 5% Handicapper at Wagertalk…All-Time

Since the start of 2022, I’ve built the most profitable record on high-stakes 5% plays in all sports and currently on a 44-18-1 (71%) run on 5% plays for +121.1 units.

In the NFL specifically:

• #1 in NFL Spread Profit since 2022: +77.43 units, 57.5% win rate, 11.8% ROI
• All-time leader in 5% NFL plays by units: +46.75 units, 70.8% win rate, 39% ROI

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Game Analysis:

The Rams enter Week 6 off an overtime heartbreak to San Francisco, but this line is telling you to trust the bounce-back. Baltimore, meanwhile, is coming off a 44–10 home drubbing to Houston and just traded edge Odafe Oweh from an already-leaky defense that’s allowing 35.4 points per game. Positive regression also points the Rams’ way, they out-gained the 49ers, controlled tempo, and simply left points on the field through red-zone variance and special-teams miscues.

From a matchup lens, Sean McVay’s offense faces a perfect get-right script. The Rams’ protection remains top-tier and should handle a depleted Ravens front that’s now missing a key pass-rusher. Expect early play-action sequencing through Puka Nacua to stress Baltimore’s battered secondary before leaning on Kyren Williams to bleed out the second half. On defense, Los Angeles can afford light boxes early and then unleash pressure when the Ravens inevitably chase. Baltimore’s offense looked lost in last week’s 10-point showing, and its protection issues only magnify when trailing.

Trends and situational data support the side. Since 2018, road favorites of 2.5 points or more off a home loss as favorites are 54-23-4 ATS (70.1%), and that success rate is even greater when those teams also turned it over twice or more…pointing to a strong bounce back spot for the Rams. Baltimore’s defense is deteriorating while its locker room reshuffles. Los Angeles, by contrast, profiles as a motivated, healthier team, favored with superior quarterback play and a balanced attack. I can see the Rams winning by at least 10 even on the road.

Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

My selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Browns have a long history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, like their collapse in London on Sunday despite leading. Sure, they've had occasional bright spots, but disappointment is the norm for Cleveland fans. This season, the Browns are 1-4, with two tight losses and two routs, struggling to score more than anyone else while playing solid defense—typical Browns.

In contrast, the Steelers excel at winning close games, sitting at 3-1 with two victories by three points or fewer and one by seven. Both teams faced Minnesota in Europe recently, but Pittsburgh had a bye week to rest. While the Browns have had some success against the Steelers in Cleveland, they’ve dropped their last four games in Pittsburgh. It may or may not be close but either way, the Steelers are likely to end up on top. Play on Pittsburgh

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