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Pavlos Laguretos
Soccer
View profile 
Carabobo vs River Plate
Copa Sudamericana, Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Play: Carabobo +0.5
Odds at Time of Release: -112
Line Parameter: Line good to -125
Match Day 4 in the Copa Sudamericana and Carabobo from Venezuela are hosting River Plate from Argentina. We have several reasons to fade the visitors here, before that let's look at the standings. River Plate at the top with 7 points, Carabobo 2nd with 6, Bragantino 3rd with 3 and Blooming 4th with 1 point.
First, and most important, reason is the fact that Carabobo rested their starters in their weekend match, which was actually pretty important, as they are playing in their domestic playoffs. They are clearly prioritizing the Copa Sudamericana. On the other hand, River Plate have already announced that they are bringing reserves here, as they are already leading this group and have a crucial match on the weekend, in their domestic playoffs against San Lorenzo, a team they haven't beat since 2022. River Plate want the domestic title. A draw vs Carabobo would keep them at the top spot, a win would pretty much mean qualification, while a loss would slightly complicate things, but their two remaining matches in the Copa Sudamericana are both at home, where they can get what they want. The priority for them is the league playoffs.
Second reason, this match is sold out and expecting a huge and loud home crowd cheering for Carabobo, who have the chance to qualify from the group stage for the first time in their history. And that's also why they are rotating in the domestic playoffs, they want to keep their starters fresh, as the Sudamericana is the priority.
Third reason is that Carabobo are unbeaten at home in L/7 (W5 D2 L0), and have lost just twice at home in almost a year. They've won both Copa Sudamericana matches at home, both with clean sheets. On the other hand, River Plate have a win and a draw away from home in the Sudamericana, but they were extremely lucky to beat Bragantino, as Bragantino missed a penalty kick to take the lead, then saw a red card, then River Plate scored the winning goal in the stoppage time and still generated fewer xG than Bragantino (0.52 to Bragantino's 1.39). In their match against Blooming it was River Plate who saw an early red card and eventually settled for a 1-1 draw.
Fourth reason, and this might fly under the radar, but I always check the weather. This barely moved the needle for me, but it must be stated that humidity in the city of Valencia is going to be through the roof at game time, with reports stating around 80-90% humidity levels. Buenos Aires, where River Plate are coming from, has lower humidity levels, not much, around 60-70%, but the kicker is the temperature. Buenos Aires has an average temperature of 57-64 Fahrenheit during this time of year, but the city of Valencia in Venezuela has an average temperature 82-84 Fahrenheit. Humidity & Higher Temperature can be brutal for visiting teams. Locals are accustomed to it, they play and train there every day. Visitors are not.
All things considered, this is a match where a Draw doesn't really hurt anyone (Draw pays +220), but with all the aforementioned reasons, I find it more possible for Carabobo to win or draw, than River Plate winning this.
Take 2% on Carabobo +0.5 (-112), line good to -125
Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago
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What are the Most Common Bets Placed on Soccer? What Soccer Predictions Are Most Common?
While you can dive deep into player props and betting on win to nil and halftime correct score and so on, those are inherently more risky bets. Yes, the odds are longer and you'll get a better payout - but there's a reason the odds are longer!
For more straightforward soccer betting, most usual free soccer picks will be:
Full Time Result/Money Line -
Essentially just who wins. However, there's a wrinkle in soccer betting as teams can end a game in a draw (tied). This is why there are extra betting options for soccer, like double chance and draw as an option.
Half-Time/Full-Time Winner -
Pick two winners! One ahead at halftime, one at the end of the game. Or pick the same team twice. Your call. Draws figure in as well.
Total Goals
Over/under if you'd like. The line for over/under in soccer is almost always 2.5 goals - although in a matchup with high scoring teams or two horribly mismatched teams, you'll see a 3.5 line or higher. Here, you simply decide whether the two teams will combine for more or fewer goals than the total goal line indicates. A lot of fun to bet the over if you just want to see goals and have no real rooting interest in the game.
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Player props are often the most entertaining type of soccer bet to place. You're laser-focused on ONE player, not one team. So, even your team has a dreadful day, if you placed a prop bet on your favorite player and he does.. you still win even if your team loses 6-1.
The most common player prop picks you'll see from our free soccer picks are going to be first goalscorer, player to score at all, and similar. You might even stumble across a yellow card prop pick from time to time - too bad Gattuso doesn't play any more - easy money!
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