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Rob Veno
College Basketball
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(693) Missouri State at (694) Kennesaw State (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: 2%
Play Type: Full Game Team Total
Play: (694) Kennesaw State Team Total Over +76.5 (-125)
Date/Time: Jan 7, 2026 7:00 PM
Line Provider: Consensus Line
2% Missouri State @ Kennesaw State
Spot play looking to replenish what was taken after Sunday’s improbable 52 point performance by Kennesaw State. 17/60/28% shooting performance far & away Kennesaw State’s worst this season against a Delaware team that has shown to be vulnerable vs. extreme pace teams. Outlier result can be corrected by KSU here back at home where they’ve scored 88, 89 & 92 vs. the three Division I opponents they’ve faced. Missouri State snail’s pace (#328) represents a severe contrast in styles with Kennesaw which owns the #10 adjusted tempo & 13th quickest average possession time. Figure home team dictates pace more than 50% of this game which should lead to enough scoring opportunities to get Kennesaw beyond the current asking price. Only team Missouri State has faced inside nation’s Top 60 in tempo was their home game vs. Arkansas State (#15) and they allowed 86 points. ASU not a tremendous shooting team but they dictated an incredibly high 80 possession game in that one. Kennesaw State relentless work on the boards vs. Missouri State’s below average rebounding likely gives the host second chances they can convert on. Situationals & fundamentals indicate Kennesaw finds their way to 77+ in this one.
PLAY: Kennesaw State Team Total OVER 76.5
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Drew Martin
College Basketball
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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger
College Basketball
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Buy to +2
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Adam Trigger
College Basketball
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Never easy to win at VCU but Saint Louis isn't your average team. Robbie Avila is the perfect offensive fulcrum to exploit VCU's rim defense and this one falls into that same subset that we have had success with simply needing St Louis to win (I make the Billikens -1 and we are actually catching the key number of +2.5 here.
I like what I have seen out of VCU thus far but this is still Phil Martelli Jr in his first go around in A10 league play. This is a great matchup for The Lou and I think the Billikens are better equipped in big games at the moment.
Similar to Columbia on Monday this one got "shoved in our face" and similar to that game I don't think it will matter (Columbia scored 100 and won outright). I still like VCU just as much and if you are getting in late you will end up with a better number.
Discussed all of this on Full Court Press and you can check out the replay below.
Play on Saint Louis +2.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)
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Dwayne Bryant
College Basketball
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My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, historical data from similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value I perceive, and how confident I am in the play.
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Bryan Power
College Basketball
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Very similar to yesterday's free play on UCF's Team Total Under. We've got a team that just cracked the Top 25, off a major win, catching points "on the highway" against an unranked foe. To me, a Clemson victory here would be correlated with the game staying Under.
It just so happens that SMU shot the lights out in their last game, making 60% from the field, including 14 of 27 from three, against North Carolina. How big was that win? It was the program's first over a "Quad 1" opponent in nearly FOUR years! But that was at home. In addition to the likely shooting regression, Clemson (310th in adjusted tempo) should slow the Mustangs down here.
Just like yesterday, betting the TT Under is a preferrable way to fade the Top 25 team as opposed to laying points. Clemson sometimes has their issues scoring. I'd rather lean on their defense (top 26 in adjusted rating as of this morning).
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Tokyo Brandon
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All three of my projections have JSU under 75.5 and the trends also say this should be under. The Gamecocks have a decent defense but the FG% and FT% are horrible.
FIU 77-70
data projection | |||
FIU | -9 | 148 | 78.5 |
Jacksonville St. | 9 | 69.5 |
my projection | |||
Florida International | -6 | 149.5 | 77.8 |
Jacksonville State | 6 | 71.8 |
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Jimmy Adams
College Basketball
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The game of the night as Alabama heads to take on undefeated Vandy in what will be an up and down and very fast paced game. Vanderbilt has been blowing teams out all season, and it hasn’t mattered if it’s been on the road or at home. Their best wins have come against Saint Mary’s and SMU, and the Commodores won those games by 25 and 19 points respectively. Mark Byington’s group is 4th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, 7th in effective field goal percentage, and they’re beating teams from both inside and outside the arc. Alabama has the offensive capability to beat anyone on any given night, but the differential between these two teams comes on the defensive end. Bama is one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers, while Vandy is 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 8th in the nation in opponent 3 point percentage. Both teams are dealing with injuries, but this is Vandy’s SEC home opener and they’ve won all of their home games this season by double digits. Take Vanderbilt.
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Who Is Winning This Year? Past 15 NCAAB Champions:
- 2023: UCONN Huskies
- 2022: Kansas Jayhawks
- 2021: Baylor Bears
- 2020: Covid U.
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- 2016: Villanova Wildcats
- 2015: Duke Blue Devils
- 2014: UConn Huskies
- 2013: Louisville Cardinals
- 2012: Kentucky Wildcats
- 2011: UConn Huskies
- 2010: Duke Blue Devils
- 2009: UNC Tarheels
