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Rob Veno
NBA Basketball
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(555) Oklahoma City Thunder at (556) San Antonio Spurs: Team Total (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: FREE
Play Type: Full Game Team Total
Play: San Antonio Spurs Total Over 110.5 (-112)
Date/Time: Sun May 24 8:12 pm EST
Line Provider: Consensus Line
Oklahoma City @ San Antonio
San Antonio in desperation "cornered animal" mode probably unleashes best effort since Game #1 in this spot. Another home floor opportunity fueled by energized atmosphere now complemented by best rotation health situation they've had all series. Top 2 PG's De'Aaron Fox & Dylan Harper with return game under their belts likely provide offensive boost to Spurs who are in "bounce back" shooting situation off of uncharacteristic 42.5 FG%. Ball security was better last game and figures to maintain with potential to be better tonight. Also anticipate #1 C Victor Wembenyama to be more aggressive on the glass recording rebound numbers closer to the series opening pair of games where he averaged 20.5. Oklahoma City now facing their own backcourt injuries with #1 SG Jalen Williams ?able (hamstring-missed LG) and #2 PG Ajay Mitchell out due to an injured calf. That element could allow San Antonio areas to successfully attack and find extra point production. Favorable overall matchup here for San Antonio to climb back into this series and for whatever it's worth it has to be mentioned that Scott "The Extender" Foster is the lead official tonight so possibility for some extra free throw home cookin' points. Market price here asks for 3 more than what a semi-banged up SAS team scored in the last contest. San Antonio likely takes advantage of all they can in this one and finds their way to generating 111+.
PLAY: San Antonio Team Total OVER 110.5
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on Spurs 1H.
The Thunder shot 45% from beyond the arc in Game 3, and we can expect some regression to the mean here in Game 4. Speaking of regression to the mean, I think we can expect the players off the bench to cool off a bit for Oklahoma City. That is not to discount their depth, but at some point I think your best players need to be your best players. It seems likely that both Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell will miss Game 4 for the Thunder, while both Dylan Harper and De'Aaron Fox are not on the injury report for the Spurs.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Will Rogers
NBA Basketball
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San Antonio Spurs [ML] | Good until -160.
Games 2 & 3 went in favor of the Thunder. Now, San Antonio must win this game to even up the series back at 2-2. The Spurs have definitely had their moments in the series. Now, they need to perform for a whole 48 minutes. I think that they can get it done at home. They are well coached and are favorites for a reason. Go big on SAS.
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Dwayne Bryant
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8:12 PM ET -- NBA
(555) Oklahoma City Thunder at (556) San Antonio Spurs
Play (556) SAN ANTONIO SPURS -2.5 -114
Bet Size: 3%
Line Parameters:
3% play at -2.5 or better
2% play at -3
No play at worse than -3
The Spurs won four of five regular-season meetings against OKC this season, including both games in San Antonio. After losing Game 3 of this series at home on Friday, I expect the Spurs to bounce back with a strong effort and a W tonight.
Key Situational Angle:
Play ON teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against an opponent after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games.
Applies to San Antonio.
16-7 ATS (70%) since the 2020 season.
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Oskeim Sports
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Oklahoma City quickly erased a 15-0 deficit only minutes into the game to defeat San Antonio 123-108 in Game 3 Friday night, taking a 2-1 lead in the Western Conference finals. San Antonio’s opening run was the longest to start a conference finals game since play-by-play tracking began in 1997. The Thunder’s bench was the storyline Friday night, outscoring San Antonio’s bench 76-23. The Spurs’ upset loss in Game 3 is significant because NBA playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 352-276-8 ATS (56.1%), while .720 or greater home favorites entering off an upset loss as favorites are 317-254-10 to the Under (55.5%). Moreover, NBA playoff underdogs of +4 or less (or favorites) coming off a home loss are 219-169-9 to the Under (56.3%), including 102-77-2 UNDER (57%) since 2016, going under by an average margin of 2.3 points per game. Let’s also note that NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back wins, like Oklahoma City, are 244-199-8 to the Under (55.1%). Finally, both teams have been going over the total like clockwork. Specifically, San Antonio has gone over in eight consecutive games, while the Thunder have gone over in six straight. Those results are significant because NBA playoff teams coming off five or more consecutive overs are 52-33-2 to the Under (61.2%), including 25-11-1 UNDER (69.4%) since 2016, going under by an average margin of 6.0 points per game. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, May 24.
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Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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Fox looked much better last game returning from the ankle sprain, and the workload immediately came back.
He scored 15 despite missing time beforehand, and before the injury he had been clearing this type of number consistently with 16+ in multiple games.
The minutes are the biggest takeaway—30 minutes in his first game back tells you San Antonio trusts him physically and needs him heavily in this matchup.
That need only increases with Dylan Harper clearly limited right now. If Harper can’t handle a full role, more offensive responsibility falls directly onto Fox.
The opportunity metrics were excellent in his return:
14 shot attempts
8 rebound chances
Converted those into 7 rebounds
That’s already enough volume to make this number feel low, especially if his efficiency improves another step while getting healthier.
With strong minutes, increased responsibility, and production already close to the line in his first game back, this number feels discounted.
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Time for Fun NBA Stats: Can You Apply The Past to the Present in NBA Bets?
Ten Highest Player Scoring Seasons in NBA History - Who's Your Scoring Player Prop in this Year's NBA?
Ok, well most of this list won't come as any surprise to anybody, as it's mostly Wilt Chamberlain. But there are a few surprises in the top ten there - who's going to score lights out this year and be your daily player prop scoring betting pick?
- 1961-62 Wilt Chamberlain - 50.36 ppg
- 1962-63 Wilt Chamberlain - 44.83 ppg
- 1960-61 Wilt Chamberlain - 38.39 ppg
- 1959-60 Wilt Chamberlain - 37.60 ppg
- 1986-87 Michael Jordan - 37.09 ppg
- 1963-64 Wilt Chamberlain - 36.85 ppg
- 2018-19 James Harden - 36.13 ppg
- 1966-67 Rick Barry - 35.58 ppg
- 2005-2006 Kobe Bryant - 35.40 ppg
- 1987-88 Michael Jordan - 34.98 ppg
Amazing NBA Team Performances: Team Prop NBA Picks - What Can The Past Tell You?
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Golden State Warriors - FIFTY-FIVE points scored in a quarter - April 9, 2023
Toronto Raptors - TWENTY-THREE Blocks in a game - March 23, 2001
Seattle SuperSonics - TWENTY-SEVEN Steals in a game - January 15, 1997
Boston Celtics - ONE HUNDRED TWELVE Rebounds in a game - December 24, 1960
