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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on the under.
The Timberwolves aren't getting much respect from the bookmakers after the injuries to Divincenzo and Anthony Edwards. I am not sure I would bet the Nuggets here as double digit favorites, because the defense of Rudy Gobert is still the biggest problem for Jokic and Denver. All four games in this series have gone under, and three of the four have gone under this number. I like Denver to win and extend the series, but I don't think their offensive struggles are going to completely disappear.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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Take Detroit - Orlando UNDER (#565-566)
The 'Daily Double' video below features my take for the OKC - Phoenix AND Detroit - Orlando in Game 4 action tonight. Here's a brief synopsis of why I expect the Pistons - Magic game to stay UNDER the total. As playoff series progress, it becomes harder and harder to execute efficiently on the offensive end of the court -- both teams have seen everything their opponent can throw at them. Detroit has shut down Orlando for extended stretches in the second half of Game 2 and Game 3. The Pistons have yet to score more than 105 in any game in this series, going Under their team total in all three previous contests. I expect another relatively low scoring physical affair in Game 4, primed to cash Under bets once again tonight. Take the UNDER.
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Rob Veno
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(707) Minnesota Timberwolves at (708) Denver Nuggets: Series Moneyline (Quick Notes Analysis Below)
Play Rating: FREE
Play Type: Series Moneyline
Play: Series Denver Nuggets 119
Date/Time: Mon Apr 27 - 10:30 pm EST
Line Provider: Consensus Line
Minnesota @ Denver
Rare opportunity to take legitimate shot with team down 3-1 in a 7 game series
Circumstances leave Minnesota without their starting backcourt for remainder of this series
Amount of offensive production lost in all facets is extremely significant
Limitations now to Minnesota depth also substantial
Denver has home game Monday and 2 of the 3 potentially remaining are on their floor
Play here hinges on Nuggets winning in Denver on Monday & then getting 1 road win against shorthanded Minnesota
Probability of Ayo Dosunmu 43 point repeat and Minnesota wearing down a bit defensively each point toward Denver
Denver likely fired up even more now after Game #4 ending and they are a proud veteran group
Strong number of advantages make this play worth a shot at + price AND if Denver wins Game #5 potential to secure profit will exist
PLAY: Denver +119 To Win Series
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Ross Benjamin
NBA Basketball
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Oklahoma City comes up as a heavy road favorite, and they have a commanding 3-0 lead in the series and won by a decisive average of 20.0-points per contest. The current total for tonight's Game 4 is 214.5. Oklahoma City has gone 5-0 SU&ATS on the road this season when total was between 210.0 to 219.5. Their average point-spread during those 5 contests was -8.8 and they had a huge +19.2 points per game differential. Since the start of the 2023-2024 NBA season Oklahoma City has gone a very good 5-1 SU&ATS during their games played at Phoenix.
NBA Playoffs away favorites of between -8.5 to -15.0 that have a 3-0 series lead have gone a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2016. Those 9 away teams' average point-spread was -10.8 and they had a massive +24.9 points per game differential.
Bet on the Oklahoma City Thunder as a point-spread favorite of -12.0 or lower.
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NBA Playoffs 157-112 (58%) & +133.96 Units Since 2021: $25.00
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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger
NBA Basketball
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Good to -125
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Since 1996, NBA road favorites of 5 points or more in games with totals over 210 are 339-211-18 to the Over (61.6%) following a game that went over the total, provided one additional parameter is satisfied: going over the total by an average margin of +4.0 points per game. The point spread is significant in this game because non-division conference NBA games with double-digit spreads are 616-510-31 to the Over (55%), including 412-327-11 OVER (55.8%) since 2019. Moreover, double-digit NBA favorites are 230-181-8 to the Over (56%) from Game 76 forward, including 151-107-1 OVER (58.5%) since 2021, going over by an average of 3.4 points per game. Similarly, double-digit conference underdogs in games with totals under 220 points are 108-82-4 to the Over (56.8%), including 61-38-3 OVER (61.6%) since 2023. Finally, since 2015, Round 1 NBA home underdogs by more than 3 points are 22-13-3 to the Over (62.9%), including 17-8-1 OVER (68%) since April 27, 2018, covering the total by an average of 5.5 points per game. Take the Over in the Oklahoma City Thunder/Phoenix Suns game as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, April 27.
DOMINATING THE LEADERBOARD
• #1 Handicapper (Units/WP/ROI): 124-86 | +75.2
• #1 Handicapper (Top Plays): 43-27 (61.4%)
• #1 Basketball Handicapper (Units): 95-66 (59%)
• 60% NBA Winners All-Time
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Portland arrives in San Antonio for Game 5 off back-to-back losses, and Round 1 road underdogs coming off consecutive defeats are just 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%) since 2012. The total is lower than in the last two games, which matters because NBA playoff favorites are 33-20 ATS (62.3%) in Game 5 with totals of 220 or less, provided the totals have dropped from each of the previous two games. Portland is installed as an underdog for the fifth consecutive game in this series, which is significant because NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are 264-352-13 ATS (42.9%). The team’s respective records are noteworthy because NBA favorites of -9 or greater with seven or more overall wins over their opponents are 148-93-3 ATS (61.4%) since 1998. San Antonio’s defense will be critical in Game 5, as the Spurs are 45-10 SU and 36-17-2 ATS when limiting opponents to fewer than 115.5 points per game. San Antonio is ranked eighth in the NBA in points allowed per game (111.5), while the Trail Blazers rank 16th in scoring offense (115.5 PPG). Finally, the Spurs fall into a profitable 249-191-6 ATS (56.6%) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests on NBA playoff teams that possess certain ATS margins. Lay the points with the San Antonio Spurs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 28.
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play OVER when the total is greater than or equal to 220, one team is rested and has been beaten by the spread by more than 6 points in three consecutive games and is facing an opponent on exactly one days rest that has beaten the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
Applies to Denver.
21-2 (91.3%) since the 2009 season, going OVER by an average of 12.8 points!
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70-24 74% ANGLE | NBA TOP TOTAL: $25.00
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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Jalen Williams is set to miss his second straight game tonight for OKC as they look to complete the sweep of the Suns on the road tonight. We’re going to take Jaylin Williams over 7.5 points + rebounds as he should see an uptick in minutes again due to Jalen Williams’ absence. He notched 21 minutes in Game 3 after just 21 minutes combined across Games 1 and 2 while accumulating 14 points + rebounds in the 121-109 win. In games Jalen Williams has missed this season Jaylin Williams averages 14.3 points + rebounds per game and coincidentally enough has averaged 14.3 points + rebounds per game in three head-to-head regular season matchups while averaging 23.7 minutes in those games as well. He was the leading rebounder off the bench for the Thunder as it’s worth noting that this player prop is blowout proof because even if the Thunder are up a ton and put in all the reserves, Jaylin Williams would be one of those primary forwards or even the center which he has played at times during the regular season due to injury situations this season. With that, let’s take Jaylin Williams over 7.5 points + rebounds in a closeout game for the Thunder tonight at Phoenix.
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Hakeem Profit
NBA Basketball
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Dating back to 2002, Round 1 underdogs of less than 5 points are just 2-11 SU / 3-10 ATS after shooting 45% or better from three in a win as a dog. Even more telling, those same teams are 10-3 to the team total under in that spot.
That’s a strong signal of shooting regression after an outlier performance.
Now apply that here. You’ve got a team that ranks bottom five in three-point percentage on the season, coming off a game where they shot lights out, facing a top five defense. That’s not a recipe for repeat success, it’s a setup for a correction.
The Magic are also just 3-7 SU/ATS this season after shooting 45% or better from deep in their previous game, reinforcing the idea that these spike performances don’t carry over.
Bottom line: expecting Orlando to duplicate that level of shooting is unrealistic. Regression is the far more likely outcome. This game will look like game 2 where Detroit bounced back holding Orlando to 83 points.
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NFL free picks are always an option, and if you're sticking to basketball, try free NCAAB picks.
Time for Fun NBA Stats: Can You Apply The Past to the Present in NBA Bets?
Ten Highest Player Scoring Seasons in NBA History - Who's Your Scoring Player Prop in this Year's NBA?
Ok, well most of this list won't come as any surprise to anybody, as it's mostly Wilt Chamberlain. But there are a few surprises in the top ten there - who's going to score lights out this year and be your daily player prop scoring betting pick?
- 1961-62 Wilt Chamberlain - 50.36 ppg
- 1962-63 Wilt Chamberlain - 44.83 ppg
- 1960-61 Wilt Chamberlain - 38.39 ppg
- 1959-60 Wilt Chamberlain - 37.60 ppg
- 1986-87 Michael Jordan - 37.09 ppg
- 1963-64 Wilt Chamberlain - 36.85 ppg
- 2018-19 James Harden - 36.13 ppg
- 1966-67 Rick Barry - 35.58 ppg
- 2005-2006 Kobe Bryant - 35.40 ppg
- 1987-88 Michael Jordan - 34.98 ppg
Amazing NBA Team Performances: Team Prop NBA Picks - What Can The Past Tell You?
Team props are a fun way to get involved in NBA betting. After all, it takes all the stress out of needing a team to win or cover a spread. You simply need to have a team reach certain stats.
Team NBA props are incredibly varied, from points in a half, game, or quarter, to total team rebounds, to team shooting percentage or team defense. Check out some amazing one-game stats from could-have-been NBA team props that would have been easy money.
Golden State Warriors - FIFTY-FIVE points scored in a quarter - April 9, 2023
Toronto Raptors - TWENTY-THREE Blocks in a game - March 23, 2001
Seattle SuperSonics - TWENTY-SEVEN Steals in a game - January 15, 1997
Boston Celtics - ONE HUNDRED TWELVE Rebounds in a game - December 24, 1960
