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Rob Veno
NBA Basketball
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(511) New York Knicks at (512) Atlanta Hawks: Team Total (Game Analysis Below)
Play Rating: FREE
Play Type: Full Game Team Total
Play: Atlanta Hawks Total Over 105.5 (-108)
Date/Time: Thurs Apr 30 - 7:00 pm EST
Line Provider: Consensus Line
Atlanta @ New York
Game 6 in a Playoff series always stresses a couple of things for the team down 2-3....sense of urgency & adjustments. Atlanta is the team with each of those heading into tonight's game so focus here is on them. Pair of quotes suggest from #1 C Onyeka Okongwu & Head Coach Quin Snyder indicate Atlanta is focused on those areas tonight. From Okongwu: "We've just got to play through it. We can't let their physicality take us out of what we want to do,"... We're not really playing like ourselves. We're not running. We're not moving the ball. We're not spacing. The things that we did to get us to this point of the year, we're not doing well enough. So we have to do that on Thursday." From HC Snyder: "We have to be more committed to imposing our will on the offensive end. Really moving and passing, you can feel possessions where that occurs, and that's when we're efficient or have success." Atlanta was #2 in the NBA at 10.8 seconds per shot attempt, #5 in 3-point shooting % (37.1%), #8 in FG% hitting 47.4% and they averaged a 6th highest 118.2 ppg. In the L2G those numbers were 11.4 / 27.7% / 42.8% & 97.5. Figure they employ the changes referred to by their starting post player & HC tonight which likely results in the extra points necessary to land at the currently required 106+.
PLAY: Atlanta Team Total OVER 105.5
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Jesse Schule
NBA Basketball
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This is a free play on Minnesota.
I am sure you have heard people in mainstream media proclaim that this series is over. Minnesota can't win without Anthony Edwards? I think this is a lazy take. Denver shot 38% from the field and 21% from beyond the arc in Game 4. If that happens again here in Game 6 it isn't going to matter that Anthony Edwards isn't playing. Chris Finch has out-coached the Nuggets coaching staff past and present. I truly believe the Timberwolves are not getting the respect they deserve here.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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This line hasn’t caught up to the new game environment. With key defensive pieces like DiVincenzo and Edwards out, Minnesota’s defensive structure changed, and we saw the impact immediately—multiple Nuggets benefited, including Johnson.
The opportunity last game was massive. He finished with 6 rebounds on 8 chances and 5 assists on 9 potential assists. That’s elite volume on both fronts and well over this number.
The current line is still priced off earlier-season usage, not this adjusted rotation and matchup dynamic.
Even if Aaron Gordon returns, it’s unlikely he’s at full minutes, and Johnson just logged 36 minutes. That workload should remain strong.
With increased opportunity, strong underlying metrics, and a favorable matchup, this is a great spot to clear 6+ combined rebounds and assists.
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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After trailing by twelve points early in the third quarter, Cleveland rallied for a 125-120 victory over the Raptors on Wednesday night in Game 5. It was an uncharacteristically sloppy performance by the Cavaliers, who committed 15 turnovers, resulting in 28 Toronto points. I expect much better defensive performances from both teams on Friday, as Toronto finished the regular season ranked fifth in Defensive Rating (112.1), while the Cavaliers ranked 15th (114.1). Since 2005, NBA playoff road favorites, like Cleveland, are 207-160-11 to the Under (56.4%), including 30-16-1 to the Under (65.2%) in Game 6 of a playoff series, going under by an average margin of 4.1 points per game. Since 2001, Game 6 home teams are 103-81-6 to the Under (56%), including 77-56-4 UNDER (57.9%) since 2008, going under by an average of 2.7 points per game. Since 2004, NBA playoff teams coming off a game in the Eastern time zone are 621-474-27 to the Under (56.7%), provided they didn’t lose that game by more than seven points, including 225-161-4 UNDER (58.3%) since 2018. Finally, since 1989, .501 or greater NBA home teams getting no more than three points are 208-166-8 to the Under (55.6%) following a road loss. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, May 1.
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The Gold Sheet
NBA Basketball
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If the Knicks are going to close out the Hawks tonight on the road, they’re going to need production from guys who have been in the background all series. Enter Mikal Bridges who has only been averaging 10 points + rebounds + assists this series as we’ll take him to go over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists for Game 6. Now this is somewhat of a contrarian play with Bridges under performing vastly this series when you consider he averaged 21.9 points + rebounds + assists during the regular season. Josh Hart is coming into this game as questionable with a back injury so if he is out or limited in any way tonight, Bridges is going to have to step up and be a key contributor in the lineup in multiple stat categories. Bridges hasn’t been terrible shooting the ball this series averaging 43% from the field and his six field goal attempts and 27 minutes played in Game 5 were both the most he had in a game since Game 2 when he played 37 minutes and attempted 10 field goals. For what it’s worth Bridges did average 2.5 more points per game in road games this season than home games and in three head-to-head meetings with the Hawks during the regular season averaged 25 points + rebounds + assists. With that, let’s look for Bridges to snap out of it tonight with a chance to close out the Hawks on the road going over 13.5 points + rebounds + assists on Thursday night.
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Dwayne Bryant
NBA Basketball
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Key Situational Angle:
Play ON road teams with a win percentage between 60% and 75% where the line is +3 to -3, and they're coming off a home win by at least 20 points.
Applies to New York.
27-7 ATS (79.4%) since the 2021 season, covering the spread by an average of 5.5 points.
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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Take the New York Knicks (#511)
The 'Daily Double' video posted below is a short, to the point free play analysis for the Knicks - Hawks and the Celtics - 76ers Game 6's on Thursday Night. Here's a brief synopsis of my New York - Atlanta betting recommendation. My clients and I bet on the Knicks to win this series at at 'even money' price after CJ McCollum hit his Game 3 game winner to put Atlanta up 2-1. Remember, Mike Brown's squad erased an 18 point deficit before losing Game 3, and they've largely dominated the last two contests wire-2-wire. That's clear evidence to this bettor that the veteran Knicks have figured out Quin Synder's Hawks, primed to close out the series in Atlanta against a coach with absolutely no history of making good adjustments as series progress. Short road chalk worth laying! Take the Knicks
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Time for Fun NBA Stats: Can You Apply The Past to the Present in NBA Bets?
Ten Highest Player Scoring Seasons in NBA History - Who's Your Scoring Player Prop in this Year's NBA?
Ok, well most of this list won't come as any surprise to anybody, as it's mostly Wilt Chamberlain. But there are a few surprises in the top ten there - who's going to score lights out this year and be your daily player prop scoring betting pick?
- 1961-62 Wilt Chamberlain - 50.36 ppg
- 1962-63 Wilt Chamberlain - 44.83 ppg
- 1960-61 Wilt Chamberlain - 38.39 ppg
- 1959-60 Wilt Chamberlain - 37.60 ppg
- 1986-87 Michael Jordan - 37.09 ppg
- 1963-64 Wilt Chamberlain - 36.85 ppg
- 2018-19 James Harden - 36.13 ppg
- 1966-67 Rick Barry - 35.58 ppg
- 2005-2006 Kobe Bryant - 35.40 ppg
- 1987-88 Michael Jordan - 34.98 ppg
Amazing NBA Team Performances: Team Prop NBA Picks - What Can The Past Tell You?
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Team NBA props are incredibly varied, from points in a half, game, or quarter, to total team rebounds, to team shooting percentage or team defense. Check out some amazing one-game stats from could-have-been NBA team props that would have been easy money.
Golden State Warriors - FIFTY-FIVE points scored in a quarter - April 9, 2023
Toronto Raptors - TWENTY-THREE Blocks in a game - March 23, 2001
Seattle SuperSonics - TWENTY-SEVEN Steals in a game - January 15, 1997
Boston Celtics - ONE HUNDRED TWELVE Rebounds in a game - December 24, 1960
