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The Prez
NBA Basketball
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OVER 221.5 CLIPPERS vs BUCKS
So Kawhi is questionable, but I expect he'll give it a go after the Clippers ended a four-game losing streak by beating Dallas in OT Saturday. Now they get to play at home and welcome in a short-handed Bucks team that is still alive for a playoff spot. Darius Garland is finally healthy for the Clippers, and he's not on the injury report after he dropped 41 points on Saturday. John Collins is also a go tonight after finally not being on the injury report. The Bucks are without Giannis, but I expect them to play zero defense in this one. Look for the Clippers to continue playing at a fast pace and get us at least 120 points at home, while the Bucks will get us enough points to get this one over the low total of 221. Grab it now because if Kawhi is listed as active, this total will rise.
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Joe Raineri
NBA Basketball
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I would have made this a TOP PLAY tonight, but I have 2 Top Plays that were too good to pass up available now. So instead, here's a FREE PLAY in a game that is screaming BARKING DOG.
I'm not sure how anyone thinks the Warriors playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and their 6th straight game on the road, should somehow be favorites in this spot. While Dallas isn't winning any world championships this season, they are actually healthier than they've been in a while, and Cooper Flagg is a scoring machine right now. Golden State has lost eight of nine but has a ridiculous lead over all the other bottom feeders for the 10th and final play-in spot in the Western Conference. Steph says he may be back by Wednesday, but that won't help them here. Golden State can eliminate Dallas from Playoff contention with a win here, but I don't see them getting it. The wrong team is favored, and the value is with the home BARKING DOG tonight.
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Bryan Power
NBA Basketball
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The Raptors are coming off a bad effort at the offensive end of the floor as they scored just 98 points in a loss at Phoenix last night. You have to figure there’s some semblance of positive regression here, facing a Utah team that is dead last in the league in defensive rating.
But the Jazz also happen to be second in the league in scoring at home. They average 121 points per game here.
If the Jazz get anywhere near that season-long average, then this game is going way Over.
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Teddy Covers
NBA Basketball
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2% Take Dallas (#546)
I could do this write-up in eight words: “Right now, Golden State can’t be a favorite.”
Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti- Warriors write-up. Numbers have been slightly edited to reflect the results of another Golden State defeat, blasted in Atlanta on Saturday.
“It’s not like there’s much urgency right now for the Golden State Warriors; 6-15 SU since Steph Curry’s injury. Forward Gui Santos: “We know it doesn't matter if we win 13 games or we lose 13 games. We're going to be playing [in the play-in].” Head Coach Steve Kerr: “We've had our eyes on six (seed) for a while. That's out of the question now. We're not getting there. If we can string together some wins, try to get to eighth, that'd be ideal. Get two cracks at [getting in the playoffs]. But we're not getting to seven. We know that…Can we prepare ourselves for the play-in. We have to be prepared for when we get guys back.” Those are not ‘balls to the wall, immediate urgency’ quotes; Golden State doesn’t have much of an ‘A’ game right now; an easy team to fade.”
In the last week, the Mavs have taken the playoff bound Clippers to OT and they pulled the outright upset over the Cavs. Very quietly, waaaay underneath the radar, the Mavs have gotten healthier and their ‘trade deadline acquisition’ veterans like Khris Middleton and Marvin Bagley are fitting into Jason Kidd’s rotation. Fade the False Favorite here! Take the Mavericks.
Line Parameter: 2% at +2 or higher, 1% at +1.5 or lower
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Oskeim Sports
NBA Basketball
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Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1823-1533-66 ATS (54.3%), while double-digit road favorites are 390-319-15 ATS (55%), including 192-107-6 ATS (64.2%) following the All-Star break, provided they have a non-division game on deck. Toronto falls into profitable 314-249-10 ATS (55.8%) and 264-201-11 ATS (56.8%) statistical profile indicators of mine that date to 1999 and invest on NBA road favorites of greater than eight points with certain turnover margins. Toronto arrives in Utah off back-to-back losses to the Nuggets (121-115) and Suns (120-98), which is significant because NBA road favorites coming off two or more consecutive losses are 830-675-25 ATS (55.1%) since 1999, including 359-264-7 ATS (57.6%) since the beginning of the 2017-18 season. The Raptors find support in a very good 341-212-12 ATS (61.7%) NBA Road Favorite Scoring Margin system of mine that dates to 1989 and invests on large road favorites with certain scoring margins. This situation has been 229-140-5 ATS (62.1%) since 2016, covering the spread by an average margin of +3.3 points per game. Finally, Toronto is a perfect 12-0 SU and ATS as a favorite of -12 or greater with at least two days of rest, winning by an average margin of 22.2 points per game and covering the spread by an average of 8.8 points per game. Lay the points with the Toronto Raptors as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, March 23.
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Andy Lang
NBA Basketball
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Gary Payton II OVER 10.5 Points
Payton has been extremely consistent in this role, going over in 9 of his last 10 games, with the lone miss coming against a tough OKC defense. Outside of that matchup, he’s been a steady scoring contributor with reliable minutes and usage.
Even with Moody potentially returning, it hasn’t impacted Payton much—he’s still gone over in 4 of the last 5 games with Moody active. His role and efficiency remain intact regardless of rotation tweaks.
The biggest edge here is efficiency. Payton is shooting around 60% from the field on roughly 10 attempts per game, which is elite for this type of prop. With that kind of conversion rate and steady volume, he doesn’t need a huge workload to clear 10.5.
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Jeff Michaels
NBA Basketball
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(547) Brooklyn Nets at (548) Portland Trail Blazers: Spread
Portland Trail Blazers -14.5 (-112)
System Performance:
Home favorites of -3 or higher coming off an away loss, facing a team off a road game with both teams having no rest, has a solid historical record of 26-10 (72.2%) ATS.
Another relevant system states that double-digit home favorites with both teams playing on back-to-back nights have an ATS record of 32-16 (67%)..
Portland Trail Blazers Performance:
Recent Road Trip: The Trail Blazers are returning home after a 5-game road trip, where they went 3-2. Despite losing their last game, they have performed well, going 6-2 (75%) ATS as a favorite after a loss. This indicates their ability to bounce back and cover in competitive matchups.
Strong Home Performance: Since late December, the Blazers have an impressive record of 14-6 (70%) overall, including 7-2 (78%) as home favorites, showcasing their effectiveness in this role.
No Rest Success: Portland is 5-2 (71.4%) as a favorite with no rest, indicating they can maintain offensive effectiveness despite fatigue.
Brooklyn Nets Performance:
Recent Struggles with Rest: The Nets are struggling significantly with a 2-10 (16.7%) record with no rest, including 1-7 ATS on the road. This trend indicates they struggle to perform effectively when having played the night before.
Issues as Underdogs: Brooklyn has a poor record of 2-10 (16.7%) ATS as an away underdog of +9 or higher since January 21.
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Time for Fun NBA Stats: Can You Apply The Past to the Present in NBA Bets?
Ten Highest Player Scoring Seasons in NBA History - Who's Your Scoring Player Prop in this Year's NBA?
Ok, well most of this list won't come as any surprise to anybody, as it's mostly Wilt Chamberlain. But there are a few surprises in the top ten there - who's going to score lights out this year and be your daily player prop scoring betting pick?
- 1961-62 Wilt Chamberlain - 50.36 ppg
- 1962-63 Wilt Chamberlain - 44.83 ppg
- 1960-61 Wilt Chamberlain - 38.39 ppg
- 1959-60 Wilt Chamberlain - 37.60 ppg
- 1986-87 Michael Jordan - 37.09 ppg
- 1963-64 Wilt Chamberlain - 36.85 ppg
- 2018-19 James Harden - 36.13 ppg
- 1966-67 Rick Barry - 35.58 ppg
- 2005-2006 Kobe Bryant - 35.40 ppg
- 1987-88 Michael Jordan - 34.98 ppg
Amazing NBA Team Performances: Team Prop NBA Picks - What Can The Past Tell You?
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Team NBA props are incredibly varied, from points in a half, game, or quarter, to total team rebounds, to team shooting percentage or team defense. Check out some amazing one-game stats from could-have-been NBA team props that would have been easy money.
Golden State Warriors - FIFTY-FIVE points scored in a quarter - April 9, 2023
Toronto Raptors - TWENTY-THREE Blocks in a game - March 23, 2001
Seattle SuperSonics - TWENTY-SEVEN Steals in a game - January 15, 1997
Boston Celtics - ONE HUNDRED TWELVE Rebounds in a game - December 24, 1960