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Last updated Mar 22, 12:57 PM EDT
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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CBB | (643) Miami Florida at (644) Houston | 7:15pm EDT - Mar 24/2023 |
The PLAY: Houston -7.0 (-110)
I broke this game down in full on WagerTalk Today and it's going to be one of our feature games on Bet On It. As links for these shows become available I will add them below.
WagerTalk Today (Wednesday): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1DRMZbnvtw
Bet On It:
I still think Houston is the best team in this tournament, over the past few seasons when the Cougars have had the advantage at both ends of the floor they win and cover at a high rate and I think that ends up being the case here.
Miami doesn't have much of a post offense and, since Houston defends the post as good as anyone, I think we see Miami taking ALOT of perimeter shots here. That's typically not a problem for Miami but here it might be as Houston contests shots as good as anyone in the country and the Cougars enter play #2 nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per KenPom.
Where Houston can pull away in this game is their ability to score since Miami's defense just isn't that good. Miami might be one of the last 16 teams standing but the 'Canes sit outside the Top 100 nationally in defensive efficiency and Houston, while not an electric offense, is good enough in every facet of offense to exploit this.
Where Houston is the best is on the glass, the Cougars are an elite rebounding team and should win the rebounding battle, especially if they have a solid game plan for Norchad Omeir (which I expect they will).
This reminds me a lot of when Miami ran into an elite Kansas team last year, Houston might not win this one by 26 but I do think the Cougars pull away by double figures.
Play on Houston -7 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)
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Consultant Bio
Adam has been a Professional Sports Handicapper for the past decade since founding Top Flight Sports with one of his Siena College roommates back in 2013. Adam got his start in the handicapping industry in 2008 writing analysis for another well-known website and set out to sell picks that always contain a full breakdown of WHY a bet is being made. In the past decade, Adam has placed in Circa Millions as well as made it to the Top 50 in Circa Survivor multiple times. Adam values transparency and is considered by many to be one of the top football (NCAA and NFL), baseball (MLB and KBO), and College Basketball handicappers in the world.
Adam is ultra-selective with the picks he puts out and lives by the "less is more" mantra. Adam believes the biggest advantage you have as the bettor is the ability to be selective and uses regression analysis to target numbers that the books have shaded to gain an edge. Adam is willing to "buck the trend" and focuses on situational betting where he feels like he's uncovered an edge that hasn't been priced into a number. Adam is out there attending more games in person than any other handicapper and has amassed a network of contacts that has become second to none in the industry.
You can only find Adam on WagerTalk, this is his only gig and the guarantee he can provide is he's out there grinding 365 days a year. Follow Adam on Twitter @topflightsi and if you shoot him a DM he will almost always respond!