Free WNBA Basketball Predictions for JUL 15

KELSEY MITCHELL (INDIANA) OVER 17.5 PTS

Connecticut returns home from a quick 2 game West Coast Road Trip having just played in LA on Sunday. Tired teams don't play defense and this Connecticut team has allowed 83 or more points in 10 of their L11 games. Caitlin Clark gets every teams attention often leaving Kelsey Mitchell open for high percentage shots. Mitchell has gone over her player prop 7 of the L10 games. 

TAKE KELSEY MITCHELL (INDIANA) OVER 17.5 PTS

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

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(603) Washington Mystics at (604) Los Angeles Sparks

Play Rating: FREE

Play Type: Full Game Total

Play: Total Over 165.5 (-110)

Date/Time: Jul 15, 2025 10:00 PM 

Line Provider: Consensus Line

Washington @ Los Angeles

Teams have not met this season…

Washington likely to find Los Angeles defense very inviting 

Sparks #12 (out of 13 teams) in Defensive Rating / FG% allowed / Paint FG% Allowed / PPG Allowed (87.2)  

They’ve allowed 82+ in 17 of their L20G so their 87.2 pg is not skewed AND…

Los Angeles games are 15-4 “Over” tonight’s posted total in their L19G

5 of the 6 games Washington has played against teams with Def Ratings of 10th or lower they’ve scored 79 (without SG Britney Sykes), 81, 90, 91 & 104

Los Angeles Against 

4 slowest tempo teams in WNBA they’ve allowed…82+ in 7 of 8G (average=86 ppg) AND…

One of those games was first ever game played by Golden State

Sparks vs teams ranked #10 or lower in PPG scoring they’ve allowed…82+ in 5 of 7G (average=84.7 ppg) AND again 

One of those games was first ever game played by Golden State

LA Has Proven To Be Capable Of Scoring On Everyone

Washington has been solid defensively (tied for #6 in PPG allowed) but vs. the Top 5 LA Sparks put up…

Between 78-86 in 7 of those 11 games

In The End

Each side figures to be able to score enough to get this game “over”

Interesting matchups in play here:

Neither team has been good defensively in the paint (Washington #11 & Los Angeles #12) AND

These are the #1 & #2 teams in FT rate

Should see this one get to 166+

Play: Washington-Los Angeles OVER 165.5

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

The Over 165 is a confident play in the Indiana Fever’s matchup against the Connecticut Sun, driven by the Fever’s red-hot offense and the Sun’s league-worst defense. The Fever, on a two-game winning streak with Caitlin Clark back in the lineup, have been scoring at will, posting 99 and 102 points in their last two games. Over their last five games, Indiana ranks second in the WNBA in offensive rating, excelling in the paint and capitalizing on spacing with Clark on the court. Meanwhile, the Sun, who are dead last in defensive rating, allow the second-most points in the paint and the most second-chance points per game, making them vulnerable to the Fever’s offensive onslaught.

Historical trends and recent performance further bolster the case for the Over. Since 2016, road favorites coming off a home game against teams on a two-game losing streak have gone over the total in 32 of 54 games (59.3%). The Sun, despite covering in three straight games, are winless in their last two and depleted without Marina Mabrey, with Tina Charles playing through a shoulder injury. Connecticut’s defense send opponents to the line at the second-highest rate in the league and struggle with defensive boards (worst rate in the league), setting up Indiana to dominate second-chance opportunities and get to the free throw line consistently. With the Sun also going over in four of their last six games, both teams should contribute to pushing this game past the 165-point total.

Good up to 167.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

The Washington Mystics are a strong bet to cover the spread against the Los Angeles Sparks, leveraging their elite defense against a struggling home team. I gave this out to all-access and WNBA clients when the Mystics were +1.5 and the line has now moved to -1.5. I still think the play is good to -3. 

The Mystics are riding a three-game winning streak, including a 74-69 upset over Seattle as seven-point road underdogs, and now face the Sparks’ second-worst defense in the WNBA. Over the last five games, Washington boasts the league’s top defensive rating and ranks second in defensive rebounding rate, positioning them to neutralize the Sparks’ reliance on second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, the Sparks are just 2-8 straight-up and 1-9 ATS at home, consistently failing to capitalize on home court.

The Mystics’ strengths align perfectly against the Sparks’ defensive tendencies, particularly in transition defense and points off turnovers allowed, where the Sparks allow the second-most points over the last five games. With Los Angeles allowing opponents to go over their team total in 15 of 21 games this season, including 9 of 10 at home, the Mystics’ should score more efficiently and the massive defensive edge should help secure a win and cove.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago