Teddy Covers

THE PLAY: Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins (-110 widely available)

3% Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins (-110 widely available) 

I bet it this way: 2.5% on Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins, 0.5% on Cowboys to Make the Playoffs: No’ (+200)

3% Take the Dallas Cowboys UNDER 

Every sharp dollar that’s shown for Dallas since these season win totals opened has come for the Under.  Let’s join them before this win total gets bet down any further! 

The Cowboys have been kicking the can down the road for years when it comes to salary cap issues.  This past offseason, the woes became very real.  Dallas lost five starters in free agency but acquired only one -- 32 year old LB Eric Kendricks, now playing for his third team in three years.

Dallas has nowhere to do but down.  They’ve won 36 games over the past three seasons - only the Chiefs have more victories.  Despite all of that success, head coach Mike McCarthy (not one of my favorite game managers, to put it mildly) has not been re-signed, in the final year of his contract.  QB Dak Prescott, too, has an expiring contract (and a massive $55 million cap hit this year). Prescott led the league in TD passes last year and finished #2 in MVP voting - he can’t play any better.  In fact, he’s likely to play worse with an OL that lost another two starters this offseason, quite possibly starting a pair of rookies in September.  

Cowboys star WR Cee Dee Lamb skipped mini-camps this spring and he’s talking about sitting out training camp this summer; trying to negotiate a new contract.  I don’t worry about running backs, but it’s worth noting that Dallas might have the weakest group of RB’s in the NFL this year.  The highest scoring offense in the league in 2023 is primed to take a step back in 2024, especially with all kinds of rumors flying around Vegas regarding Prescott’s health.  Behind Prescott?  Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, neither of whom I’d trust to win an NFL game this year.

Dallas lost elite defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in the offseason; now the head coach in Washington.  Da’Ron Bland set an NFL record with FIVE interceptions returned for touchdowns last year - he won’t do that again.  They finished +10 in turnover margin last year -- only 16 giveaways -- again, difficult numbers to repeat.  Perennial defensive POY candidate Micah Parsons has his own contract issues; expecting an extension.  CB Trevon Diggs is coming off a torn ACL.  Dallas is not primed to be a run stuffing team either; mediocre in that regard last season.

So we’ve got a head coach and a QB who both could be gone next year; playing on a team with severe salary cap restrictions that has overachieved in each of the last two seasons.  Then we look at the schedule and it gets even worse.  NFC East teams play the AFC North and NFC South.  Their three extra games are all tough: Detroit, San Francisco and Houston.  Dallas has only one home game between Baltimore on September 22nd and Philly on November 10th.  

My numbers show that last year -- using my power rating for their opponent the week the game was played -- the Cowboys played a shockingly weak schedule, second weakest of any playoff team.  Don’t expect that to be the case in 2024; a year where Dallas is primed to decline from recent seasons.  And it’s surely worth noting that teams lined at 9.5 wins or higher since the NFL Schedule was increased to 17 games have gone 22-14 to the Under.  Teams with nine home games - like the Cowboys -- lined at ten wins or higher? 9-3-1 to the UNDER with a 17-game schedule; an emerging trend worth riding here!  Take the Cowboys UNDER.

THE PLAY: UNLV +3.5 (-110)

2% Take UNLV (#193)

Plain and simple: I have lived in Las Vegas since 1998.  The state of the UNLV football program RIGHT NOW heading into Barry Odom’s second year on the job is better than at any point over the last 27 football seasons that I’ve been following this program closely.  The Rebels have all the makings of a ‘bet-on’ team again in 2024, just like they were in 2023.

UNLV won nine games last year (most wins since the Randall Cunningham season in 1984) and reached the Mountain West Championship Game for the first time in the history of the program. They led the conference in scoring; returning an elite level receiving corps and the Rebels best offensive line in decades.  Defensively, UNLV has upgraded their secondary fairly dramatically through the transfer portal and they return the vast majority of their solid front seven.  No surprise here if defensive minded Odom creates a nasty stop unit in 2024.

Houston, on the other hand, is in complete rebuild mode under first year head coach Willie Fritz. Dana Holgorsen did not leave the cupboards stocked for the Cougars program, and Fritz didn’t exactly light the world on fire in his first two years at Tulane, winning only nine games (combined) -- he’s got time to fix things.  This line is low for a reason -- expect the Cougs to be in a dogfight just to win this game SU, let alone winning it by any sort of margin.  Take the points!  Take UNLV

Line Parameter: 2% at +3.5 or higher, 1.5% at +3 or lower

THE PLAY: Total Under 43.0 (-110)

2% Take Cincinnati - New England UNDER (#463-464)

The Bengals offense hasn’t clicked on all cylinders in Week 1 even once during the Zac Taylor era.  Cinci has been held to 24 points or less in regulation in each of their five Week 1’s under Taylor, averaging less than 17 points per game.  I’m not expecting 2024 to be dramatically different for a team that has consistently been underprepared on offense for their opener against a defensive minded foe like New England in the first game of the Jarod Mayo era.

The Patriots, on paper, have the single worst offense in the NFL.  We could see Drake Maye making his NFL debut on the road vs a good defense, which equates to a very conservative gameplan.  We could see Jacoby Brissett behind a weak offensive line throwing to a weak receiving corps. Either way, I’m not expecting touchdowns in bunches.  Early reports from mini-camp have detailed all kinds of issues for this limited attack; issues that are not likely to be solved on opening day.

There’s only one reason to make this bet now and lock up your money all summer with this wager -- getting the ‘best of the number’.  With 43’s still available and 42.5’s still widely available, let’s lock in now for a game likely to close at 42 or lower.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 2% at 42.5 or higher, 1.5% at 42 or lower