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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Louisville -3.0 (-110)

Take Louisville (#113)

 A weaker Louisville team than this one beat NC State by two touchdowns last year.   A similar result on Friday Night this time around would be no surprise for this bettor.  The Wolfpack haven’t clicked yet in 2023: 0-4 ATS in their four games to open the season.  They were blown off the field at home in their only previous ‘step-up-in-class’ game, losing by three TD’s on this field, and couldn’t extend leads against any of the three weaker foes that they faced. 

Wolfpack QB Brennan Armstrong is the team’s leading rusher – never a good thing when their top back is averaging less than 30 yards per game against lesser competition.  He's thrown nearly as many INT’s (4) as TD passes (5), picking up right where he left off last year (7 TD’s and 12 INT’s while completing less than 55% of his pass attempts).

Here's an excerpt from what I wrote about Louisville for my clients last week, prior to their blowout win over Boston College: “Louisville fell asleep with a three TD lead at Indiana last week, lucky to escape with the victory after a nasty second half meltdown. I don’t expect them to fall asleep with a lead again this week; a game where the Cardinals are primed to control the flow on both sides of the football. Chalk worth laying!”  I expect more of the same on Friday Night in Raleigh.  Take Louisville.

The PLAY: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-115)

2% Take Cleveland (#260)

Let me start with a Strength of Schedule issue that stands out after three games.  The Ravens haven’t exactly stepped up in class yet; facing Houston, a Cincinnati team that hasn’t started to click yet and Indianapolis; not exactly a who’s who of solid offensive ballclubs thusfar.  Cleveland has faced Cinci, Pittsburgh and Tennessee already – three elite defensive squads.  Baltimore hasn’t even been able to dominate weaker foes, Cleveland has gone 2-1 facing a MUCH tougher slate.  The Browns loss on Monday Night Football vs Pittsburgh ensures that the public hasn’t fallen in love with this team – there’s still legitimate ‘value’ supporting the Browns in the betting markets heading into Week 4.

The Browns defensive numbers are elite; bad news for a mediocre, banged up and already struggling Ravens offense.  Cleveland ranks #1 in the NFL in yards per play allowed; Baltimore’s lack of big plays has been a major issue – only three plays of more than 20 yards in three games. The Ravens won’t be the fresher team here, coming off an OT loss – their defense was on the field for more than 80 plays last Sunday.  And Baltimore’s injury woes continue to mount; a big part of the reason why the ‘sharp’ $$ poured in on the Browns at the opener.  Short chalk worth laying.  Take the Browns.

Line Parameter: 2% at -3 or lower, no action at -3.5 or higher

The PLAY: Total Under 46.5 (-110)

Take Alabama – Mississippi State UNDER (#185-186)

The sky is not falling in Tuscaloosa, as Alabama rallied back from a halftime deficit to beat Ole Miss last week.  That said, after getting smacked at home by Texas earlier, the 24 points ‘Bama put up against a lesser defense is certainly cause for concern, especially on the heels of a sluggish 17 point offensive showing the previous week at South Florida.  QB Jalen Milroe said it right with his postgame quote, calling the Crimson Tide offense a ‘work in progress’. 

Alabama’s defense is not a ‘work in progress’; it’s an elite unit filled with future NFL stars.  They held a powerful Ole Miss offense to just 4.0 yards per play in the second half.  The Bulldogs are a team in transition from Mike Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ attack last year to a run based offense under Zack Arnett in 2023. It hasn’t mattered what offense Mississippi State has run against Alabama in recent meetings – it hasn’t worked, producing 6, 9, 0, 7 and 0 points in the last five meetings.  I’m not convinced in the slightest that this year’s meeting will be any different.  Expect a low scoring game amidst the cowbells on Saturday Night.  Take the UNDER.