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Free Picks

Sport

Game Selection

Game Time

NFL

(271) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (272) New Orleans Saints

1:00pm EDT - Oct 13/2024

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -130

3% Take Tampa Bay (#271) on the Moneyline

The Saints 2-0 start is a long way in the rear view mirror now. They’ve lost three straight games, held under two touchdowns on offense in two of the three losses. New Orleans is riddled with key injuries along the offensive line; their front seven on defense has significant injury issues as well. QB Derek Carr got hurt late in the game on Monday Night – status uncertain as of this write-up – but I don’t expect him to be at or near 100% if he does suit up, and I’ll take my chances betting against Jake Haener if he doesn’t. Right now, we're getting a cheap price to lay, considering Carr's uncertain status. The Saints are playing on a short week with a Thursday Night game on deck; certainly not an optimal scheduling spot for a banged up team in the midst of a three game skid.

Tampa lost a brutal game to the Falcons last week, but it’s surely worth noting how well they bounced back off their only previous loss, winning in blowout fashion over Philly. The Bucs are leaving Tampa on Tuesday to get ahead of the hurricane. Yes, that’s a worrisome situation, but it’s also a team bonding experience – I do NOT expect ‘distracted’ football on Sunday against their division rival; a team they beat 26-9 on this field last year. Coming off a game filled with missed tackles and defensive mistakes, look for Todd Bowles to make the appropriate adjustments here in a game the Bucs are primed to win. Take Tampa on the Moneyline

Line Parameter: 3% at -149 or lower, 2% at -150 or higher

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Last 20

Date

Sport

Pick

Result

Oct 08

MLB

3% – (903) Los Angeles Dodgers at (904) San Diego Padres 1H Total Over 4.0 (-125) W Buehler (RHP), M King (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 07

NFL

3% – (475) New Orleans Saints at (476) Kansas City Chiefs Total Under 43.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 07

MLB

2% – (967) Kansas City Royals at (968) New York Yankees Total Under 7.5 (-113) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 06

MLB

2% – San Diego Padres +124 Action
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 06

NFL

4% – Green Bay Packers -3.0 (-115)
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 06

NFL

3% – Houston Texans +1.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 06

NFL

3% – Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Oct 05

CFB

3% – Marshall -3.0 (-115)
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 05

CFB

3% – Kansas +2.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Oct 05

CFB

3% – (327) Mississippi at (328) South Carolina Total Over 54.0 (-108)
(Analysis)

Loss

Oct 05

MLB

2% – (955) Kansas City Royals at (956) New York Yankees 1H Total Under 4.0 (-115) M Wacha (RHP), G Cole (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Loss

Oct 04

CFB

3% – Syracuse +6.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Oct 02

MLB

3% – New York Mets +104 Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Oct 01

MLB

3% – New York Mets +131 Action
(Analysis)

Win

Sep 29

NFL

3% – (279) Washington Commanders at (280) Arizona Cardinals Total Over 50.0 (-112)
(Analysis)

Win

Sep 29

NFL

3% – Denver Broncos +7.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Sep 29

NFL

4% – Houston Texans -5.5 (-115)
(Analysis)

Loss

Sep 28

CFB

5% – UNLV -130
(Analysis)

Win

Sep 28

CFB

3% – Georgia -108
(Analysis)

Loss

Sep 28

CFB

3% – Michigan State +23.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Consultant Bio

Ted Sevransky better known as Teddy Covers moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports full-time back in 1998 and he's been doing it successfully ever since. During that time, Teddy has been featured prominently in the mainstream press. Print highlights include the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Las Vegas Review Journal and Playboy magazine. Television highlights include CBS This Morning, CNBC, PBS and Bloomberg TV. Teddy starred in the recent sports betting documentary Life on the Line and has been featured in an ESPN 30-for-30 and on Showtime's 'Action' miniseries.

Teddy is a 1992 University of Michigan graduate. His handicapping approach is fine tuned for the modern betting marketplace in 2023; a market that is dominated by stat-based quants - the sharp money. In one sentence, Teddy looks to identify and identify and isolate 'morphing' teams -- teams that are currently playing at a different level or pace (better or worse; faster or slower) than their long term statistical profile would indicate. Those become teams to bet on, bet against, bet over and bet under, until the quants catch up with current realities and value them correctly.

This Ride the hot & fade the cold approach has allowed Teddy to provide for himself and his family with steady income from his sports betting winnings, over more than two decades. And those two decades of experience grinding it out in Vegas allows Teddy to avoid some of the traps and pitfalls that befall many cappers. Teddy is one bettor who can handle the highs and lows of this sometimes zany and always exciting business with consistent, calm professionalism.

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