Teddy Covers

THE PLAY: 3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins

3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings, +100 at Westgate Superbook and BetMGM, -110/-115 widely available)

Washington was a breakout team in 2024 under first year head coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jaylen Daniels. They came on like a freight train down the stretch, winning their last five regular season games and a pair of playoff games before losing to Philly in the NFC Championship Game.  Many are expecting a repeat performance in 2025. I am not.

Let me start with these two factors.  First, the Commanders faced these quarterbacks down the stretch last year, from Week 12 on: Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, rookie Micheal Penix and Trey Lance.  The ONLY one of those QB’s expected to start in 2025 is Penix.  Based on MY power ratings for their opponent the week the game was played, Washington faced the single EASIEST schedule in the entire NFL last year.  That’s not likely to repeat.

Second, the Commanders went 20-23 on fourth downs last year, an 87% conversion rate on the most important plays in the game.  That’s ‘off the charts’ good.  Two teams this century have had higher conversion rates (the 2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but neither of those squads had more than ten attempts, full season. 24% of their points came on drives that included a successful fourth down conversion, Top 5 this century.  I expect significant regression.

Just from ‘opposing QB injuries luck’ and ‘fourth down conversion luck’, we can expect Washington to come back to earth in 2025.  I should note some schedule disadvantages here.  The Commanders face an NFL high three teams off a bye, and they play two ‘short week’ road games, leaving them with a ‘Bottom Five’ rest disadvantage. For some teams that might not matter quite so much.  But it’s also worth noting that the Commanders enter the season as the single OLDEST team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

The Ron Rivera era didn’t leave much quality roster depth, to put it mildly.  Last year, the Commanders filled the gaps with veterans on short term deals; guys like Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler, Zack Ertz and Andrew Wylie; all on the wrong side of 30.  This offseason, they brought in Laremy Tunsil, Jonathan Jones, Deebo Samuel and Will Harris, all approaching or over 30 years old.  I’m expecting injuries and attrition. 

The Commanders went from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 last year.  Modern NFL history tells us that teams that make a huge leap one year are primed to come back to earth the following season.  We can confidently expect that regression from Dan Quinn’s squad in 2025.  Take the Commanders Season Wins UNDER.