Hot Streaks:
All Sports HOT: 22-8 (73%) L15 Days +43.3 Units
NBA on FIRE: 17-5 (77%) Since Nov 11
NFL on FIRE: 2-0 Sunday, 80% Run L2 Weeks
All Plays 4% or Higher All Sports: 27-14 (66%) Since June
All 5% Big Ticket Plays: 69-40 (63%) Since May, 2021!
NBA Every Play Since Feb, 2022: 218-151 (59%) +192 Units
Last updated Nov 30, 10:48 AM EST
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Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NBA | (515) Los Angeles Lakers at (516) Oklahoma City Thunder | 8:10pm EST - Nov 30/2023 |
The PLAY: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 (-110)
Take Oklahoma City (#516)
The Lakers are 0-3 ATS on the second of back-2-backs this season, and they’re on the second of back-2-backs here after an easy blowout win in Detroit last night. Darvin Ham’s squad has a losing record on the highway once again – just like last year – and half of their road wins have come against absolute bottom feeders. This is not a ‘max intensity’ game for the road underdog, by any stretch of the imagination, and OKC ain’t no bottom feeder! The Thunder enter tonight’s game off back-2-back losses; hard fought competitive ‘step UP in class’ games vs Philly and Minnesota by a combined seven points. They’re 4-1 or 5-0 ATS off a loss this season (depending on when you bet the Twolves game, which opened +4). Mark Daigneault’s young, emerging squad clearly cares about regular season wins and they care about bouncing back strong off a loss. Bottom line: OKC is a team worth backing tonight against the Lake-show, even if all the Lakers veterans end up playing. Take OKC.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CFB | (321) Louisville at (322) Florida State | 8:00pm EST - Dec 2/2023 |
The PLAY: Florida State -2.5 (-110)
Take Florida State (#322)
Jeff Brohm coached Purdue up to reach the Big 10 Championship Game last year. Once the Boilermakers arrived with a chance to win the title, the step-up in class was simply too much, and they lost the game by three scores. Brohm’s coached up this Louisville squad to the ACC Championship Game in his first season on the job. But once again, I’m expecting the talent differential to be too great for his squad to enjoy a breakthrough victory.
Yes, Florida State lost their starting QB, Jordan Travis, to injury. Backup Tate Rodemaker was good enough to rally the team from a double digit deficit in the Swamp last week. Rodemaker was also good enough to beat Louisville last year when Travis was hurt. And Florida State’s talent surrounding their backup QB is elite, with the likes of edge rusher Jared Verse, WR’s Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson, TE Jaheim Bell, RB Trey Benson and DB Akeem Dent all likely to hear their names called in the NFL draft next spring. Louisville? DT Jermayne Lole is likely to get drafted, maybe WR Jamari Thrash. But there’s a legitimate talent edge for the Seminoles here, on both sides of the football, that is greater than a field goal.
Louisville went balls to the wall last week against Kentucky, a game Brohm called “the most important game of the rest of the season” last week, and they still lost SU as a favorite of more than a TD. They’re an overvalued commodity again here in a game I expect them to lose by a field goal or more. Lay it or don’t play it! Take Florida State.
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Consultant Bio
Ted Sevransky better known as Teddy Covers moved to Las Vegas to bet on sports full-time back in 1998 and he's been doing it successfully ever since. During that time, Teddy has been featured prominently in the mainstream press. Print highlights include the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Boston Globe, Las Vegas Review Journal and Playboy magazine. Television highlights include CBS This Morning, CNBC, PBS and Bloomberg TV. Teddy starred in the recent sports betting documentary Life on the Line and has been featured in an ESPN 30-for-30 and on Showtime's 'Action' miniseries.
Teddy is a 1992 University of Michigan graduate. His handicapping approach is fine tuned for the modern betting marketplace in 2023; a market that is dominated by stat-based quants - the sharp money. In one sentence, Teddy looks to identify and identify and isolate 'morphing' teams -- teams that are currently playing at a different level or pace (better or worse; faster or slower) than their long term statistical profile would indicate. Those become teams to bet on, bet against, bet over and bet under, until the quants catch up with current realities and value them correctly.
This Ride the hot & fade the cold approach has allowed Teddy to provide for himself and his family with steady income from his sports betting winnings, over more than two decades. And those two decades of experience grinding it out in Vegas allows Teddy to avoid some of the traps and pitfalls that befall many cappers. Teddy is one bettor who can handle the highs and lows of this sometimes zany and always exciting business with consistent, calm professionalism.