Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Oklahoma City Thunder Total Over 123.5 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Utah Jazz on Wednesday night at the Paycom Center in a matchup that heavily favors the home team. The Thunder have been dominant recently, winning 15 of their last 17 games and covering the spread in seven straight home contests. Their offensive firepower has been on full display, with Oklahoma City exceeding their team total in seven of their last eight games as double-digit favorites. Against a depleted Jazz team that allows opponents to hit their team total over 25 times in 41 games this season, the Thunder’s team total over 123.5 looks like a prime opportunity for bettors.

The Thunder are one of the most efficient scoring teams in the league, averaging 116.5 points per game on 47.4% shooting, and they’ve thrived as home favorites. In their most recent outing, they dismantled the Brooklyn Nets 127-101, shooting 55% from the field and draining 19 three-pointers. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averages 31.5 points per game, has been the driving force behind their offensive success. Oklahoma City’s ability to exploit the Jazz’s defensive struggles, particularly against high-scoring teams, sets them up for another big night. The Jazz rank last in the NBA in turnovers per game (17.7) and blocks allowed (6.5), both metrics the Thunder can capitalize on to create easy scoring opportunities.

The Jazz enter this game on a three-game losing streak, including a demoralizing overtime loss to the Pelicans in which they squandered a 25-point lead. Their defense has been porous, allowing 118.2 points per game, and opponents are 15-8 to their team total over when the Jazz are road underdogs. Given the Thunder’s recent dominance at home and their proven ability to exceed their scoring benchmarks, taking the Thunder team total over 123.5 is the best bet in this matchup.

THE PLAY: Texas A&M +3.0 (-108)

The Texas A&M Aggies face the Ole Miss Rebels in an SEC showdown on Wednesday night at The Pavilion at Ole Miss. Despite the Rebels’ strong 9-0 record at home this season, Texas A&M +3 offers compelling value for bettors. The Aggies have won 10 of their last 12 games and hold a 5-1 record against Ole Miss in their last six meetings, including a decisive 80-71 victory last season. The Aggies’ defensive consistency, allowing just 65.8 points per game (43rd nationally), combined with their ability to dominate the boards (41.4 rebounds per game, 10th nationally), makes them a formidable challenge for Ole Miss, even in a tough road environment.

While Ole Miss boasts a respectable 78.8 points per game, their offensive efficiency dips against strong defenses like Texas A&M’s, which excels at limiting opponent field goal percentages to 42.9%. The Rebels have also struggled historically against AP-ranked opponents, losing 17 of their last 18 games in such matchups. Additionally, Ole Miss’ rebounding, ranking 253rd in the nation, is unlikely to match the Aggies’ physicality in the paint. Texas A&M’s leading scorers, Zhuric Phelps and Wade Taylor, combine for over 30 points per game and have shown they can deliver in critical moments, giving the Aggies the scoring punch needed to stay within the spread—or even pull off an upset.

Though Ole Miss has been dominant at home, recent trends favor Texas A&M. The Aggies have consistently covered against the Rebels, going 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. With Ole Miss’ recent overtime loss to Mississippi State exposing vulnerabilities in rebounding and perimeter defense, the Aggies are well-positioned to exploit those weaknesses. Back Texas A&M +3 in this matchup, as their defensive grit and rebounding edge should keep the game close, if not tilt it in their favor outright.