Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 (-105)

Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offense have been unimpressive, especially in the passing game. His miserable stat line against the Jets (7-of-15 for -7 yards at halftime) shows how ineffective the Broncos have been at moving the ball. While some of that can be attributed to the rain in that game, Denver’s problems go beyond just one bad performance. They also struggle to run the ball, which will limit their ability to attack the Raiders’ one potential weakness on defense—stopping the run.

Maxx Crosby’s presence will be key. If he plays, he’ll apply pressure on Nix and disrupt Denver’s offensive flow, especially since Nix is known for tossing short, ineffective checkdowns under pressure. Even though the Raiders have had issues stopping the run, that weakness likely won’t be exposed much against a Broncos team that struggles to establish the ground game.

Yes, Denver has won their last two games, but both came against teams that weren’t at their best. They caught the Buccaneers and Jets in bad spots and capitalized. The Raiders, on the other hand, will be more focused and won’t overlook the Broncos. 

Even without Davante Adams, the Raiders can exploit Denver’s one defensive weakness: the middle of the field. Brock Bowers has a great opportunity to shine in this game, taking advantage of Denver’s struggles in this area. Plus, while Patrick Surtain II will likely lock down Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders can lean on Bowers and their other offensive weapons to move the ball.

The Broncos are getting too much credit for their recent wins against vulnerable teams, and their offense continues to underperform. With Maxx Crosby back to lead their defense and Brock Bowers primed to exploit the Broncos' middle, the Raiders +2.5 is the the only way I can look in this matchup.

THE PLAY: Leicester City +0.25 (-111)

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Leicester has had a tough season, but they’ve shown signs of breaking through. Despite being ranked 20th in expected goals, they’ve managed to net 8 goals so far, indicating that they can take their chances when opportunities present themselves. With 7 assists to their name and Stephy Mavididi leading the attack, Leicester's offensive output has been decent, even if their defense has been vulnerable.

Bournemouth has struggled defensively, allowing 8 goals already this season, which ranks them 12th in the EPL for goals conceded. They also rank lower in expected goals against, sitting at 8.6 for the year, suggesting that they give up too many quality chances to their opponents. Despite having Kepa Arrizabalaga in goal, Bournemouth’s defense has shown gaps that can be exploited by a team like Leicester, especially on the road.

Leicester may not have a clean sheet this season, but their keeper Mads Hermansen has shown to be a solid shot-stopper, boasting a 72.3% save rate in his career. The team averages 2.00 goals allowed per 90 minutes, but the fact that they’ve been up against some tough opposition contributes to that stat.

Betting on Leicester City at +0.25 gives you a great safety net. If the game ends in a draw, you win half your stake. But I think Leicester has a great shot at winning this outright at home.