Ronald Cabang

THE PLAY: Los Angeles Sparks -2.0 (-110)

Gave this out to all-access and WNBA season clients earlier at -1. I like this up to -3. 

The Los Angeles Sparks are entering their matchup against the Golden State Valkyries as a team on a serious hot streak, having won eight of their last nine games. This surge coincides with the team finally getting healthy, which has unlocked their offensive potential, they've scored over 100 points in five of their last six outings. In contrast, the Valkyries are stumbling, having lost two straight and failing to score more than 77 points in six consecutive games, highlighting an offense that's simply not clicking. While the Sparks are on the first leg of a back-to-back, their momentum and scoring average of 96.7 points per game over the last seven far outpaces the Valkyries' anemic 73.9 points per contest, setting up a clear mismatch in firepower.

Digging into the last seven games' stats, the Sparks rank third in offensive rating and lead the league in paint frequency while sitting second in paint efficiency, exploiting interiors that the Valkyries defend well but haven't been tested against a unit this potent recently. The Valkyries' woes are compounded by their 11th-ranked offensive rating, second-lowest effective field goal percentage, and heavy reliance on above-the-break threes, which the Sparks counter effectively as the fifth-best defense in that category over the last seven games. Even with the Sparks' last-place defensive rating allowing 91.7 points per game, the Valkyries' struggling attack isn't equipped to capitalize, especially as Cameron Brink's improving health bolsters LA's defense. This data points to the Sparks covering the -1 spread with room to spare.

THE PLAY: Southern Miss +12.5 (-110)

I only fire 5% plays when everything lines up and this one checks every box.

Since November 2023, my 5% plays are on an insane 42-11 run (79.2%, +148.75u) across all sports. When it comes to CFB 5% plays, I’m a perfect 3-0 (100%) since 2022, with a focus on quality over quantity because the sharpest plays don’t come often…but when they do, they cash.

This one is powered by my Edge Stacking System, which fuses model projections, advanced metrics, trends, and situational analysis. Plus, there’s a 14-0 SU / 13-1 ATS league-wide trend in play that dates back to 2018.

And the best part? The market hasn’t caught up. This line is mispriced!

• 42-11 run on 5% plays (+148.75u)
• 100% ATS on CFB 5% plays since 2022
• 14-0 SU / 13-1 ATS trend active
• Mispriced number the books will regret

The edge is real. But the line won’t wait. 

Join the sharp side. Get this 5% CFB play now! Just Click Here

Analysis:

Southern Miss is a strong pick to cover the +12.5 spread against Mississippi State in their 2025 season opener, leveraging a significant team overhaul and home-field advantage. Under new coach Charles Huff, the Golden Eagles brought in a ton of transfers, including Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Braylon Braxton, signaling a major improvement from their 1-11 record in 2024. Key players like Josh Moten, bolster a secondary that could challenge Mississippi State’s passing game, especially with quarterback Blake Shapen recovering from a shoulder injury. The home crowd adds an emotional edge as well.

Mississippi State faces offensive uncertainty with Shapen and 2nd year coach Jeff Lebby after a 10-loss season. While the Bulldogs have talented skill players like running backs Davon Booth and Johnnie Daniels and Ole Miss transfer Ayden Williams, their defense struggled last season, ranking last in the SEC in rushing defense with only 10 sacks. Southern Miss’s revamped roster, including four Mississippi State transfers, adds familiarity and motivation to keep the game competitive. I like Southern Miss to keep this game competitive making +12.5 a high-value bet in this in-state rivalry.