Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions September 3

This is a free play on Under. 

Is this Week 1, or is it the 4th game of the pre-season? I wouldn't be surprised if the offenses are a little sloppy here in the season opener. It should be tough sledding for the Cowboys below average offensive line against the Eagles #2 ranked defensive line. Philly can likely dominate the line of scrimmage, and have plenty of success with their run game. The total for this game is higher than it had been in six of the last seven meetings between these teams. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule 

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I have the Raiders as a team most are sleeping on coming into the 2025 season. Considering the franchise has only made the playoffs twice since the early 2000's its not something that is surprising. However, the setup gives us a nice spot to cash a ticket on the Silver and Black to kickoff the Sunday NFL week #1 betting card. 

Pete Carrol taking over the controls and adding Heisman finalist Ashton Jeanty to the backfield are positive projections. Although, Geno Smith behind center with new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly dialing up the X's and O's is what gets us to the ticket window. I think this offense puts up some quality numbers if their main weapons can stay healthy. 

The Patriots are being priced as a 8.5 win football team. Drake Maye at QB has shown signs of being a quality QB, more so in college. He really struggled turning the ball over last season in the pro's. New England won 3 games last year before a meaningless win over the Josh Allenless Bills in the final week of the season. Too much hype for the Pats coming into this season. 

For the Sunday Week #1 free pick bet the Raiders (+3) and sprinkle some on the moneyline as Las Vegas likely goes into Foxborough and wins outright. 

Checkout the 5% NFL "MAX LIMIT" WEEK #1 BET $$ below… 

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3% Take Las Vegas (#465)

The Patriots went 4-13 last year, with one of those four wins coming in Week 18 against a Bills team resting starters.  They won a grand total of ONE game ‘comfortably’ all year, by more than a single score.  Yes, New England brought in a new coach and went on a spending spree in free agency.  But make no mistake about it – the Pats are NOT a team I’m comfortable laying points with in Week 1; a game they’ll need to win by more than a field goal to cash winning bets.  

It’s surely worth noting that New England wasn’t favored in ANY games last year and went 1-4 SU as a favorite in 2023, not a team we can trust to win by margin.  New head coach Mike Vrabel, dating back to his tenure with the Titans?  1-4 SU in his last five tries as chalk!  Both the Pats and Vrabel have consistently been LOSING games like this in SU fashion…..

Meanwhile, the Raiders upgraded every bit as much as New England did this past offseason – not just the coach and the quarterback.  That said, new QB Geno Smith went 7-1 SU on the highway as the starting quarterback for Seattle last year, including a hard fought OT win right here in Foxboro.  And Pete Carroll is 4-1 SU in his last five Week 1’s, with only two losses by more than a field goal in his last 11 Week 1 tries; a coach who I trust to have his team ready.  Live dog here!  Take the Raiders.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower

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3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings, +100 at Westgate Superbook and BetMGM, -110/-115 widely available)

Washington was a breakout team in 2024 under first year head coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jaylen Daniels. They came on like a freight train down the stretch, winning their last five regular season games and a pair of playoff games before losing to Philly in the NFC Championship Game.  Many are expecting a repeat performance in 2025. I am not.

Let me start with these two factors.  First, the Commanders faced these quarterbacks down the stretch last year, from Week 12 on: Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, rookie Micheal Penix and Trey Lance.  The ONLY one of those QB’s expected to start in 2025 is Penix.  Based on MY power ratings for their opponent the week the game was played, Washington faced the single EASIEST schedule in the entire NFL last year.  That’s not likely to repeat.

Second, the Commanders went 20-23 on fourth downs last year, an 87% conversion rate on the most important plays in the game.  That’s ‘off the charts’ good.  Two teams this century have had higher conversion rates (the 2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but neither of those squads had more than ten attempts, full season. 24% of their points came on drives that included a successful fourth down conversion, Top 5 this century.  I expect significant regression.

Just from ‘opposing QB injuries luck’ and ‘fourth down conversion luck’, we can expect Washington to come back to earth in 2025.  I should note some schedule disadvantages here.  The Commanders face an NFL high three teams off a bye, and they play two ‘short week’ road games, leaving them with a ‘Bottom Five’ rest disadvantage. For some teams that might not matter quite so much.  But it’s also worth noting that the Commanders enter the season as the single OLDEST team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

The Ron Rivera era didn’t leave much quality roster depth, to put it mildly.  Last year, the Commanders filled the gaps with veterans on short term deals; guys like Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler, Zack Ertz and Andrew Wylie; all on the wrong side of 30.  This offseason, they brought in Laremy Tunsil, Jonathan Jones, Deebo Samuel and Will Harris, all approaching or over 30 years old.  I’m expecting injuries and attrition. 

The Commanders went from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 last year.  Modern NFL history tells us that teams that make a huge leap one year are primed to come back to earth the following season.  We can confidently expect that regression from Dan Quinn’s squad in 2025.  Take the Commanders Season Wins UNDER.

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Tyrone Tracy looks like a strong play to go over his rushing total in this spot. Last week he ran for 66 yards against Washington, showing he’s capable of producing against a defense that’s still vulnerable on the ground. With the Giants’ offensive line struggling, the best way to mask those issues is to lean on the run game rather than asking their quarterbacks to constantly drop back under pressure.

On the other side, Washington’s defense was one of the worst in the league last year when it came to stopping the run, giving up the third-most yards per rush in the NFL. That weakness directly plays into Tracy’s opportunity here. With New York’s offensive strategy pointing toward establishing the run and Washington’s front seven being leaky, Tracy should have plenty of chances to rack up yards.

The matchup, game plan, and recent performance all point toward Tracy going over 57.5 rushing yards.

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• Fading 2 QB's on the road making their first NFL starts.  
• Going through the key numbers of 3, 4, & 7

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