Free NFL Picks - Best NFL Bets Today July 26

The Rams finished 2023 at 10-7, winning their last 4.  Losing Aaron Donald is a big blow, but they addressed it in the draft with Verse and Fiske D-Lineman out of Florida State and still had nine additional picks.  It is the top 5 offensive unit and the top 5 head coach (some would argue it is the top 3).  If they can keep Stafford upright and healthy, they'll have a chance to do some serious damage.  I love the middle of their schedule at Chicago, vs Green Bay, vs Las Vegas, vs Minnesota, at Seattle, vs Miami and at New England.  I'm planning on 5+ wins during that 7-game stretch.  With a possible San Fran Super Bowl hangover, I have faith in this play.

Released/revised 16 day(s) ago

3% Dallas Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins (-110 widely available) 

I bet it this way: 2.5% on Cowboys UNDER 10 Wins, 0.5% on Cowboys to Make the Playoffs: No’ (+200)

3% Take the Dallas Cowboys UNDER 

Every sharp dollar that’s shown for Dallas since these season win totals opened has come for the Under.  Let’s join them before this win total gets bet down any further! 

The Cowboys have been kicking the can down the road for years when it comes to salary cap issues.  This past offseason, the woes became very real.  Dallas lost five starters in free agency but acquired only one -- 32 year old LB Eric Kendricks, now playing for his third team in three years.

Dallas has nowhere to do but down.  They’ve won 36 games over the past three seasons - only the Chiefs have more victories.  Despite all of that success, head coach Mike McCarthy (not one of my favorite game managers, to put it mildly) has not been re-signed, in the final year of his contract.  QB Dak Prescott, too, has an expiring contract (and a massive $55 million cap hit this year). Prescott led the league in TD passes last year and finished #2 in MVP voting - he can’t play any better.  In fact, he’s likely to play worse with an OL that lost another two starters this offseason, quite possibly starting a pair of rookies in September.  

Cowboys star WR Cee Dee Lamb skipped mini-camps this spring and he’s talking about sitting out training camp this summer; trying to negotiate a new contract.  I don’t worry about running backs, but it’s worth noting that Dallas might have the weakest group of RB’s in the NFL this year.  The highest scoring offense in the league in 2023 is primed to take a step back in 2024, especially with all kinds of rumors flying around Vegas regarding Prescott’s health.  Behind Prescott?  Cooper Rush and Trey Lance, neither of whom I’d trust to win an NFL game this year.

Dallas lost elite defensive coordinator Dan Quinn in the offseason; now the head coach in Washington.  Da’Ron Bland set an NFL record with FIVE interceptions returned for touchdowns last year - he won’t do that again.  They finished +10 in turnover margin last year -- only 16 giveaways -- again, difficult numbers to repeat.  Perennial defensive POY candidate Micah Parsons has his own contract issues; expecting an extension.  CB Trevon Diggs is coming off a torn ACL.  Dallas is not primed to be a run stuffing team either; mediocre in that regard last season.

So we’ve got a head coach and a QB who both could be gone next year; playing on a team with severe salary cap restrictions that has overachieved in each of the last two seasons.  Then we look at the schedule and it gets even worse.  NFC East teams play the AFC North and NFC South.  Their three extra games are all tough: Detroit, San Francisco and Houston.  Dallas has only one home game between Baltimore on September 22nd and Philly on November 10th.  

My numbers show that last year -- using my power rating for their opponent the week the game was played -- the Cowboys played a shockingly weak schedule, second weakest of any playoff team.  Don’t expect that to be the case in 2024; a year where Dallas is primed to decline from recent seasons.  And it’s surely worth noting that teams lined at 9.5 wins or higher since the NFL Schedule was increased to 17 games have gone 22-14 to the Under.  Teams with nine home games - like the Cowboys -- lined at ten wins or higher? 9-3-1 to the UNDER with a 17-game schedule; an emerging trend worth riding here!  Take the Cowboys UNDER.

Released/revised 24 day(s) ago

Gibbs had 10 rushing TD's last year, and he started off his rookie season slow with no rushing TD's, but he finished very strong with 5 rushing TD's in the last 5 games of the season, and he had a rushing TD in all 3 playoff games.  The Lions love rushing the ball into the endzone when they get in close as they had 27 rushing TD's in 2023 and only 30 passing TD's, and in 2022 they rushed for 23 TD's and passed for 29.  David Montgomery will certainly get his fair share of rushing TD's, but there are enough to go around for both guys.  

Released/revised 31 day(s) ago

This is a stacked Dolphins team and I think they have a pathway to a 12-5 year, which gives us 2 extra wins over this total. Although they are playing in a stacked division with the Bills and Jets, they have a much easier schedule than both these teams and I do think they go 1-1 against them. The Dolphins have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the league, playing teams that averaged a .488 win % on the year. This team also fell a part last year and I think we see them enter this season hungry and focused. They have a good running game, maybe the best WR core in the league and Tua has shown he can win close games. I also think the Bills will regress slightly and that the Jets are over-rated. There is no reason this team can’t win the division and this line is 9.5. 10 wins and we cash this ticket and as I mentioned I see a pathway to 12. 

Released/revised 43 day(s) ago

2% Take Cincinnati - New England UNDER (#463-464)

The Bengals offense hasn’t clicked on all cylinders in Week 1 even once during the Zac Taylor era.  Cinci has been held to 24 points or less in regulation in each of their five Week 1’s under Taylor, averaging less than 17 points per game.  I’m not expecting 2024 to be dramatically different for a team that has consistently been underprepared on offense for their opener against a defensive minded foe like New England in the first game of the Jarod Mayo era.

The Patriots, on paper, have the single worst offense in the NFL.  We could see Drake Maye making his NFL debut on the road vs a good defense, which equates to a very conservative gameplan.  We could see Jacoby Brissett behind a weak offensive line throwing to a weak receiving corps. Either way, I’m not expecting touchdowns in bunches.  Early reports from mini-camp have detailed all kinds of issues for this limited attack; issues that are not likely to be solved on opening day.

There’s only one reason to make this bet now and lock up your money all summer with this wager -- getting the ‘best of the number’.  With 43’s still available and 42.5’s still widely available, let’s lock in now for a game likely to close at 42 or lower.  Take the UNDER.

Line Parameter: 2% at 42.5 or higher, 1.5% at 42 or lower

Released/revised 46 day(s) ago

C.J. Stroud took a 3 win team the year before to the playoffs behind some stellar quarterback play that made him look like a veteran. With 23 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, he showed the ability to make plays without turning the ball over. Now the Texans add Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon to a team we’re “buying” heading into the 2024 season. Even though Anthony Richardson will most likely be back, this is a line we can jump on now as Houston starts the season with a win over Indy. Take the Texans ML. 

Released/revised 54 day(s) ago