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Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions December 6

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Steve Merril NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(131) Indianapolis Colts at (132) Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time:
Play:
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 (-108)

Indianapolis hits the road off a home loss to Houston.  The Colts have now lost 2 straight games, and 3 of their last 4 games overall.  Their recent struggles only ensure a focused effort in Jacksonville, especially since they are a familiar divisional opponent.  Indianapolis has been poor on offense lately, but things should get much better vs. a Jacksonville defense that hasn’t played a competent offense since October 19th against the Rams.  The Jaguars have beat up on terrible teams over the past 5 weeks, but the competition stiffens here.  Jacksonville is just 1-2 SU over their last 3 home games as well, so home field advantage isn’t a factor either.  Indianapolis will get back on the winning track, so lay the points with the Colts in this game on Sunday afternoon.

Play COLTS (-).

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The most exciting bowl season ever is almost here. With the expanded playoff format, this year’s schedule blends the tradition of college bowls with an NFL-style postseason, creating the deepest and longest slate we’ve ever offered.The first 46 bowl and playoff games kick off December 13th, with the CFB National Championship set for Monday, Jan ...

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The Mad Russian NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time:
Play:
4% Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 (-109)

(141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills 9-1 LAST-10 FREE PLAYS / THIS IS A 4% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY

4% Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 (-109)

Buffalo may be a favorite, but the Bengals are far from pushovers, especially with Tee Higgins back in action and Burrow leading the charge. Buffalo’s run defense has been shaky all year, and Cincinnati is built to exploit that in snowy conditions, with a balanced attack. The line hovering around +5.5/+6 feels too generous for a team that has covered frequently against Buffalo in recent years. I’m banking on a scrappy, hungry Bengals squad to hang, cover, and maybe shock the Bills in Orchard Park.  Give me Burrow and the boys.

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Ross Benjamin NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(143) Houston Texans at (144) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 42.0 (-110)

For a detailed analysis on why Ross likes this pick just watch the video below.

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Ben Burns NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(135) New Orleans Saints at (136) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date/Time:
Play:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 (-108)

The last time that I was involved in a Tampa game was back on October 20, at Detroit. I played against the Buccaneers that day and they “came through” with a 24-9 loss. Dating back to that defeat, the Bucs are just 1-5 ATS their past six games. That one ATS victory came against the Saints, 23-3 at New Orleans, the team they'll host Sunday afternoon. Though they lost by only four at Miami last week, the Saints' previous four losses all came by at least 12 points. The Bucs have beaten New Orleans three straight times and the victories came by 20, 8 and 24 points. Six of Tampa's last seven wins in the series have come by eight or more, five of those by double-digits. I'm expecting the Bucs to pull away for another double-digit win. 

Ben Burns is the reigning football champion 

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

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Ralph Michaels NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(139) Los Angeles Rams at (140) Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time:
Play:
Arizona Cardinals +10.0 (-115)

(139) Los Angeles Rams at (140) Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals +10.0 (-115)

The Cardinals have been done in by TO's as in their L4 games they have a 107 yd edge vs TB but were -2 TO's and +207 yds vs SF but were -2 TO's.

The Rams had a big first road game versus the pitiful Titans but since are -71 yards away from home.

DIV HD with a losing record and 3 straight losses are 34-19-1 (64%) since 2020.

DIV HD of more than a TD are 58-37-2 (61.1%) since 2020.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

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College Football Bowl All-Access — Now Just $149
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Bryan Power NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(129) Seattle Seahawks at (130) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time:
Play:
Atlanta Falcons +7.0 (-116)

3% Atlanta (1:00 ET): The market can’t seem to figure out this Falcons team. Two weeks ago, the Dirty Birds closed as an underdog at New Orleans, but won 24-10. Last week, they were road favorites against the Jets, but lost outright on a last second field goal. I actually faded them (via a teaser) there. This week, they're a home dog. I greatly prefer Atlanta in this role, given each of their last four losses have been by six points or fewer. Three of the losses were by a total of five points. The other was in overtime.

Sure, Seattle is a good team. In fact, they're #1 in both DVOA and yards per play differential. But laying a TD on the road here feels like a bit too much. The Seahawks’ offense gained just 219 total yards last week against Minnesota. I know that game eventually got out of hand. However, that was because of five Vikings’ turnovers. It was only 3-0 late in the first half when Max Brosmer made an incomprehensible decision. The Vikings were actually driving to take the lead. Next thing you know, they're down 13-0 going into the break. 

It's fair to say that Seattle QB Sam Darnold has been regressing over the last month or so. He’s near the bottom of the league in CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expectation) during that time. Not to mention, Darnold posted his lowest QBR of the season last week as he really struggled against the Minnesota blitz. Well, guess what? Atlanta’s defense blitzes at the second highest rate in the league (trailing only the Vikings!)  The Falcons, despite their poor 4-8 SU record, have a positive YPP differential on the season (a better differential than the Chiefs!) I know not having WR Drake London (PCL sprain) is less than ideal for Kirk Cousins. But I think the Falcons keep it close. 3% Atlanta (Play at +7 or better) 

For MORE free NFL Week 14 plays, click the video below! Also, don't miss BP's 5% MAX BET for Sunday! 

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Jeff Michaels NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(125) Tennessee Titans at (126) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 34.0 (-107)

(125) Tennessee Titans at (126) Cleveland Browns

Total Under 34.0 (-107)

Betting Trends and Insights

System Insights

  • Teams Off Double-Digit Home Loss: When both NFL teams are coming off a double-digit home loss, the games tend to go under, with a record of 10-30 (25%) Over/Under.
  • Low Total Insights (38 and Lower): Since 2019, games with totals of 38 and lower have shown a tendency to go under as well, with a record of 41-64-2 (39%) Over/Under.
  • Away Teams with Low Yardage: Away teams from game #4 and later that have gained 200 yards or less in their previous game have an Over/Under record of 33-59 (36%).

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The most exciting bowl season ever is almost here. With the expanded playoff format, this year’s schedule blends the tradition of college bowls with an NFL-style postseason, creating the deepest and longest slate we’ve ever offered.The first 46 bowl and playoff games kick off December 13th, with the CFB National Championship set for Monday, Jan ...

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Teddy Covers NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(137) Denver Broncos at (138) Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time:
Play:
Denver Broncos -7.5 (-100)

Take Denver (#137)

Las Vegas is essentially a ‘one way’ team for me at this stage of the campaign – if I'm playing a Raiders game, I'm likely betting against them.  Vegas scored only seven points in the first meeting between these two teams this year, and I'm not convinced they'll score more than that in the rematch. There's precious little home field advantage for Vegas at Allegiant Stadium these days - they've lost by 14+ to the Browns and Cowboys in their last two tries, primed for another rough showing on Sunday.  Take the Broncos.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

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Fade the False Favorite! NFL Best Bet: $25.00

Fade the False Favorite and cash in with Teddy’s single Best Bet in NFL action on Sunday.   Take advantage of a betting marketplace that is missing all the key nuance surrounding a banged up quarterback and let Teddy deliver the goods for YOU and YOUR bankroll with this rock solid winner!

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Teddy Covers NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time:
Play:
Buffalo Bills -6.0 (-110)

Take Buffalo (#142)

(Double Gamer video, here's one of the two picks.)  I'm not sold on the Bengals as a ‘late season run’ type of squad despite their win over Baltimore on Thanksgiving Night.  Cinci still got outyarded by nearly a yard and a half per play in that game; Zac Taylor's defense is still vulnerable to both the run and the pass.  Meanwhile, there's all kinds of urgency for the Bills, currently the #7 seed in the AFC and coming off a dominant showing in Pittsburgh.  Expect a ‘home team win’ by a TD or more.  Take the Bills.  

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

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Fade the False Favorite! NFL Best Bet: $25.00

Fade the False Favorite and cash in with Teddy’s single Best Bet in NFL action on Sunday.   Take advantage of a betting marketplace that is missing all the key nuance surrounding a banged up quarterback and let Teddy deliver the goods for YOU and YOUR bankroll with this rock solid winner!

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Andy Lang NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(123) Miami Dolphins at (124) New York Jets
Date/Time:
Play:
Devon Achane OVER 82.5 rushing yards -114 (FanDuel)

Miami’s identity has shifted heavily toward the run, and Achane has responded with 120-plus rushing yards in three straight games. The Jets match up terribly here, ranking 30th in rush attempts allowed and 26th in rushing yards allowed. Achane has also had 99 or more yards in two straight meetings with the Jets, and he enters this matchup in elite form.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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Drew Martin NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(143) Houston Texans at (144) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time:
Play:
Houston Texans +3.5 (-110)

Attacking the bookies with the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football. Getting more than a field goal against a Kansas City team that is reeling, (0-4) against the spread their last 4 games. The Chiefs also lost 3 offensive lineman last week and all 3 are doubtful heading into this weekends action. Houston has won back to back games outright as the underdog. Sprinkle some on the moneyline for the Texas to win another here. For Sunday'f free pick- Bet Texans plus the points. 

33-18 (65%) Overall (+50% PROFIT) since mid October 

59-35 (63%) Overall (+73% PROFIT) since early September 

Longterm, up over (+65% PROFIT) L 300 picks overall 

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Teddy Covers NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(139) Los Angeles Rams at (140) Arizona Cardinals
Date/Time:
Play:
Arizona Cardinals +8.5 (-115)

Take Arizona (#140)

The Cardinals are 1-9 SU since their 2-0 start.  That said, seven of those nine losses have come by four points or less, including last week's ‘fight to the finish’ three point loss at Tampa Bay - this team hasn't ‘let go of the rope’; competing consistently.  They beat LA by 31 on the Rams last visit to Phoenix, and they're catching Sean McVay's team sporting a pretty big betting bandwagon these days.  Anything more than a TD is too many points!  Take the Cardinals.

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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Fade the False Favorite! NFL Best Bet: $25.00

Fade the False Favorite and cash in with Teddy’s single Best Bet in NFL action on Sunday.   Take advantage of a betting marketplace that is missing all the key nuance surrounding a banged up quarterback and let Teddy deliver the goods for YOU and YOUR bankroll with this rock solid winner!

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Was $279.00 Now $199.00

From now until kickoff of Sunday Night Football, you can secure full access to every NFL release from Teddy Covers for just $199 (regularly $279). This is your chance to ride with one of the most trusted NFL handicappers through the biggest stretch of the season.What’s included:• Every NFL client release for the remainder of the regular season� ...

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Bill "Krackman" Krackomberger NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(143) Houston Texans at (144) Kansas City Chiefs
Date/Time:
Play:
NFL: K.Hunt (KC) Rushing Yards UNDER 36.5 -110

Touch matchup vs Texans

IP is back getting more carries

Ok with UN38.5 -140

Released/revised 1 day(s) ago

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NFL SUNDAY Prop 4 Pack (ONLY $19!): $19.00

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College Football Bowl All-Access — Now Just $149
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The most exciting bowl season ever is almost here. With the expanded playoff format, this year’s schedule blends the tradition of college bowls with an NFL-style postseason, creating the deepest and longest slate we’ve ever offered.The first 46 bowl and playoff games kick off December 13th, with the CFB National Championship set for Monday, Jan ...

Full-Court All-Access Pass – Includes 5% Best Bets – ONLY $49!
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Will Rogers NFL Tab NFL Football

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Event:
(125) Tennessee Titans at (126) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time:
Play:
Cleveland Browns -195

My selection is on the Cleveland Browns. We're looking at two bad teams, but one is clearly farther along in their rebuild and has the huge advantage of playing at home. The season might be lost, but the Browns and their fans still have pride on the line—they want this home victory.

On the flip side, does Tennessee even want to win anymore? The Titans are 0-7 in their last seven games and a dismal 1-17 over their last 18. The conversation around that team is all about draft position, not winning football games. 

The biggest difference shows up on defense: Cleveland actually plays it, Tennessee doesn’t. The Browns are giving up just 271 yards per game while the Titans are surrendering 346. Myles Garrett is on an absolute tear, notching at least one sack in six straight games and pushing his season total to a career-high 19—he’s now only four sacks away from the all-time single-season record of 22.5. It could stay competitive for a while, but Cleveland gets it done in the end. Give me the Browns.


 

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Event:
(141) Cincinnati Bengals at (142) Buffalo Bills
Date/Time:
Play:
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 (-108)

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