Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions November 12

This is a 2-team, 6-point teaser. For those unfamiliar, we are moving the spread six points in our favor on two games (in each case +2.5 to +8.5). Both legs have to hit. This would be considered a pretty standard "Wong Teaser," as we're moving through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in games where the respective totals are low.

2% Teaser (2-team, 6-point) - Washington (8:15 ET Thurs) & Carolina (1:00 ET Sunday): You probably remember the last time the Commanders and Giants met as the game ended in a tie (27-27) due to Washington's inability to manage the clock at the end of overtime. The Commanders were the better team that day, outgaining the Giants 6.3 to 4.9 on a per play basis. They also led by 14 in the 4Q. In a similar vein, the Commanders also outgained the Rams on a per play basis (5.4 to 4.7) only to come up short again on the scoreboard. Dan Quinn's team is now 2-5-1 SU on the season. I know it's tough to trust them, especially with an injury at center, but that's where the teaser option comes in. While the Giants' SU record is 5-2-1, four of their wins have come by eight points or less. The one exception was at home against Arizona where they had a 98-yard INT return on the final play to get the final margin to 12. Remember that JJ McCarthy is the starting QB for New York.

For the second leg of this teaser bet, let's take Carolina up to +8.5 as well. The Panthers were pretty unfortunate to lose 26-21 at home to Denver last week. There was a controversial INT ruling in the end zone that went against them. Fortunately, I had them in a tease and cashed (other leg was Seattle). Carolina had the YPP edge (5.7 to 4.8) over the Broncos. Now, money has come in AGAINST the Panthers this week as the Saints are favored after opening as the dog. Again, just like the Giants, New Orleans struggles to win by margin. All three of their wins this season have been by seven points or fewer. I played the Saints ML last week and got a very fortunate win as they stopped Cleveland's potential game-winning 2-point attempt in OT. The fact that New Orleans, who was playing at home and off a bye, struggled to beat a Browns team playing its third consecutive road game and starting Shedeur Sanders at QB was very eye-opening. 2% Teaser (2-team, 6-point) - Washington and Carolina (must get +7.5 or better on both legs)

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I really like Jayden Daniels UNDER 202.5 passing yards against the New York Giants, especially considering how difficult this defense has been to throw against all season. Daniels has thrown for 274, 217, and 300 yards in his last three games, but he's also attempted at least 29 passes in each of those contests, and I don't expect the same passing opportunities in this matchup. The Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to exceed 202.5 passing yards just once all season, putting them alongside Seattle and Minnesota as one of the three toughest passing defenses in football. In the first meeting against New York, Daniels finished with just 199 passing yards, and more than 40 of those came in overtime, meaning he was well below this number through regulation. Another factor I really like is that the Giants have controlled the football for more than 35 minutes in each of their last two games, which limits the number of possessions and passing opportunities available to opposing quarterbacks. With New York's outstanding pass defense, their ability to control the clock, and Daniels struggling to reach this number even with overtime in their first meeting, Jayden Daniels UNDER 202.5 Passing Yards is the play.

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Take Washington (#113)

From an urgency standpoint, there’s no comparison between these two teams on Thursday NIght.  The Giants have a multi-game lead in the NFC Least, sitting in first place with a decent sized betting bandwagon thanks to their 4-1-1 SU/5-1 ATS mark in their last six games -- John Harbaugh's team is a tad bit 'fat and happy' on a short week. Meanwhile, Washington is playing for the right to stay relevant over the back half of the campaign.  Dan Quinn's squad hasn’t forgotten blowing a two TD late lead vs the Gmen last month; a game that ended in a tie.  No surprise here if this game, too, rewards underdog bettors.  Take the Commanders

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The Saints have won five of the last six meetings, including a pair of outright upsets last year. Carolina is 0-3 straight-up and against the spread over its last three games following last week's 26-21 home loss to Denver. The Panthers have allowed an average of 27.2 points per game over the last five contests. New Orleans is 1-5 against the spread over the last six games, but the Saints did pick up an outright win over Cleveland last week. New Orleans continues to produce terrible offensive numbers in the first half. After a 3-3 first half tie with Cleveland last week, the Saints are now 1-7 against the first half spread this season. New Orleans has only scored in the first quarter two times in eight games, producing a total of nine first quarter points this season. Perhaps the potential return of running back Travis Etienne Jr. is just what the voodoo doctor ordered in the French Quarter. Etienne Jr. has not played since Week 3 against the Raiders, but he is expected to return to practice this week after dealing with a hamstring injury. New Orleans has the second-lowest rushing success rate in the NFL this season (Raiders last), so his potential return would be a big boost for the Saints' offense. Carolina is running out of healthy bodies on defense. A unit that already has five players on IR was missing edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Bobby Okereke last week against the Broncos. If New Orleans can't muster some early scoring against this defense, then Kellen Moore needs to tear it all down and start over. Don't forget, owner Gayle Benson has been keeping a closer-than-normal eye on her team in recent weeks and wrote a letter to the Saints' fan base after the loss to Pittsburgh in Paris. Last week's win over Cleveland was a small step in the right direction, but a home win over a division opponent would go a long way toward rebuilding excitement after Who Dat Nation watched their team lose its first three home games this season.
Play New Orleans Saints

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When these two teams played earlier his season, the over/under was set at 45.5, and they blew past it with 61 combined points. This weekend’s rematch carries a noticeably lower total, which provides value on the over. Yes, Minnesota’s games have tended to be low-scoring, but Green Bay’s haven’t. The Packers put up 45 points on their own last week in a 72-point shootout with New England, and the week before that, their game against Carolina totalled 46. I cashed the under in the Vikings’ game against Buffalo, but this Sunday I’m going the other way. Play the Over

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PLAY: Dallas +4.5

We were on the Niners on Sunday. Easiest cash of the day! We were also on the Colts +5 versus the Cowboys. Dallas put up 508 yards in Indianapolis without George Pickens. Dak Prescott went 21-of-34 for 335 yards and two touchdowns, and the ground game added 179 more, with Javonte Williams going for 101 and Tyler Goodson adding 77 on 12 carries.

Prescott has 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions on the season, and the Cowboys have run for 179 yards or more in two of their last three games. Rookie Caleb Downs sealed the win in Indy with his first career interception.

San Francisco is a Super Bowl contender sitting 7-1, but it has been a road favorite only once this year and lost that game 29-20 in Atlanta with four turnovers. The receiver room is thin, too. Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk all sat out last week, and Ricky Pearsall is done for the season. Maybe they can do it all with Kittle and McCaffrey, but that's a big ask.

Grab the points with the Cowboys at home.

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In a matchup of two teams already essentially playing out the string, there is little reason to be conservative. The Colts are allowing 27.7 ppg. The Dolphins are allowing 28.6 ppg. Indianapolis has allowed 26 or more points in four of its last five games and has seen five of its past six games produce a minimum of 26 points. Go with the over.

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