Free NFL Picks This Week, Expert NFL Predictions August 14

Philadelphia comes into this matchup having won their first preseason game. In their 34-27 victory over Cincinnati, Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee put on an impressive performance, completing 20 out of 25 pass attempts for 252 yards and throwing two touchdown passes. The Eagles are clearly treating the preseason with a competitive mindset. Head coach Nick Sirianni emphasized this, stating, “Even though it’s preseason, we want to compete and get the job done. It’s important to build momentum and keep the standards high.” This professional approach sets the tone for the team as they look to maintain their championship-level standards from last season.

The Eagles are also focusing heavily on the physicality and intensity of their joint practices with the Browns, which serve as a critical part of their preparation. Sirianni noted, “We have to be ready to handle the physicality the Browns bring. These practices and games are key to getting the team ready for the season.” This shows Philadelphia is fully engaged in both practice and gameplay, making them a formidable opponent despite the preseason setting.

Depth has been a strong suit for the Eagles, highlighted by their backups’ strong performance in the first game. Sirianni remarked, “Our backups showed they can compete at a high level last week. That kind of depth will be crucial as the season progresses.” This depth advantage can make a difference in a preseason game where starters and reserves mix.

On the other side, Cleveland enters this game having won their first preseason matchup 30-10 against Carolina. Rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders impressed with two touchdown passes, signaling promise but also inexperience. The Browns are looking to find consistency and improve offensively after a tough 2024 season, when they finished with one of the lowest points per game averages in the league.

The betting line has now moved to favor Philadelphia by 3 points, a sign that sharp bettors are confident the Eagles will cover and possibly win comfortably at home. Considering all factors — Philadelphia’s disciplined approach, emphasis on physicality, and impressive depth — the Eagles have a clear edge. Both teams are motivated, but the Eagles’ superior coaching, preparation, and talent give them the upper hand.

This is a prime opportunity to back the Eagles at -3, as they are focused on winning and maintaining the high standards that led them to last season’s Super Bowl title. The line movement confirms the smart money backing Philadelphia, making betting on the Eagles to cover the spread a strong play given the context and insider signals from coaching staff.

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DraftKings has released its opening point spreads and totals for every game of the NFL regular season. The Chargers will open the season with a neutral site game against Kansas City in Brazil where heat, humidity and some questionable turf may be able to slow down the high-powered Chiefs' offense. After that, DraftKings has the Chargers favored in ELEVEN-straight games. The last month of LA's schedule has some difficult games against the Eagles, Chiefs and Broncos, but the Chargers may be knocking on nine wins by Thanksgiving if they take care of business in games they are supposed to win. Jim Harbaugh's team was a good bully last season, going 10-2 straight-up in games where the Chargers were favored (both losses came as a favorite of less than a field goal). Their non-division road games are at the Giants, Dolphins, Titans, Jaguars and Cowboys. You can't really ask for an easier non-division road schedule than that. At the time of posting, Chargers over 9.5 wins is available at…

FanDuel (EV)
DraftKings (-110)
BetMGM (-110)
Hard Rock (-110)

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3% Take the Washington Commanders UNDER 9.5 Wins (+105 at DraftKings, +100 at Westgate Superbook and BetMGM, -110/-115 widely available)

Washington was a breakout team in 2024 under first year head coach Dan Quinn and rookie QB Jaylen Daniels. They came on like a freight train down the stretch, winning their last five regular season games and a pair of playoff games before losing to Philly in the NFC Championship Game.  Many are expecting a repeat performance in 2025. I am not.

Let me start with these two factors.  First, the Commanders faced these quarterbacks down the stretch last year, from Week 12 on: Cooper Rush, Will Levis, Jake Haener and Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, rookie Micheal Penix and Trey Lance.  The ONLY one of those QB’s expected to start in 2025 is Penix.  Based on MY power ratings for their opponent the week the game was played, Washington faced the single EASIEST schedule in the entire NFL last year.  That’s not likely to repeat.

Second, the Commanders went 20-23 on fourth downs last year, an 87% conversion rate on the most important plays in the game.  That’s ‘off the charts’ good.  Two teams this century have had higher conversion rates (the 2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but neither of those squads had more than ten attempts, full season. 24% of their points came on drives that included a successful fourth down conversion, Top 5 this century.  I expect significant regression.

Just from ‘opposing QB injuries luck’ and ‘fourth down conversion luck’, we can expect Washington to come back to earth in 2025.  I should note some schedule disadvantages here.  The Commanders face an NFL high three teams off a bye, and they play two ‘short week’ road games, leaving them with a ‘Bottom Five’ rest disadvantage. For some teams that might not matter quite so much.  But it’s also worth noting that the Commanders enter the season as the single OLDEST team in the NFL, and it’s not even close.

The Ron Rivera era didn’t leave much quality roster depth, to put it mildly.  Last year, the Commanders filled the gaps with veterans on short term deals; guys like Bobby Wagner, Dante Fowler, Zack Ertz and Andrew Wylie; all on the wrong side of 30.  This offseason, they brought in Laremy Tunsil, Jonathan Jones, Deebo Samuel and Will Harris, all approaching or over 30 years old.  I’m expecting injuries and attrition. 

The Commanders went from 4-13 in 2023 to 12-5 last year.  Modern NFL history tells us that teams that make a huge leap one year are primed to come back to earth the following season.  We can confidently expect that regression from Dan Quinn’s squad in 2025.  Take the Commanders Season Wins UNDER.

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3% Take Las Vegas (#465)

The Patriots went 4-13 last year, with one of those four wins coming in Week 18 against a Bills team resting starters.  They won a grand total of ONE game ‘comfortably’ all year, by more than a single score.  Yes, New England brought in a new coach and went on a spending spree in free agency.  But make no mistake about it – the Pats are NOT a team I’m comfortable laying points with in Week 1; a game they’ll need to win by more than a field goal to cash winning bets.  

It’s surely worth noting that New England wasn’t favored in ANY games last year and went 1-4 SU as a favorite in 2023, not a team we can trust to win by margin.  New head coach Mike Vrabel, dating back to his tenure with the Titans?  1-4 SU in his last five tries as chalk!  Both the Pats and Vrabel have consistently been LOSING games like this in SU fashion…..

Meanwhile, the Raiders upgraded every bit as much as New England did this past offseason – not just the coach and the quarterback.  That said, new QB Geno Smith went 7-1 SU on the highway as the starting quarterback for Seattle last year, including a hard fought OT win right here in Foxboro.  And Pete Carroll is 4-1 SU in his last five Week 1’s, with only two losses by more than a field goal in his last 11 Week 1 tries; a coach who I trust to have his team ready.  Live dog here!  Take the Raiders.

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower

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The Broncos are going to be a popular “survivor” pick in Week 1. Nothing's ever certain in the NFL but they should be a relatively safe choice. The Titans are likely to have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and the Broncos are expected to have one of the best. The Broncos also figure to have a good shot at covering the spread. The Titans were dismal last year and they're expected to finish with only five or six wins this season. The Broncos, on the other hand, are projected to finish with nine or 10. Having lost their first two games last season, they're going to be determined to get off to a better start. They should pull away for a double-digit victory.  

Ben Burns was last season's #1 Football Handicapper 

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While it began with questions about whether Matthew Stafford would return, the Rams have had a productive offseason. They have now adjusted Stafford's contract while making some significant changes to their offense. The big news is that the Rams released Cooper Kupp and signed Davante Adams for a one-two punch with Puka Nacua. There's a lot of excitement surrounding the team and we like their chances of getting off to a winning start. The AFC South was not a good division last year with the Colts, Jaguars and Titans going a combined 15-36. The Texans beat up on those teams en route to a division title, but games outside the division were a different story. The Texans were 5-6 in non-divisional games and they were only 2-3 against NFC teams. Houston's point differential last season was dead-even. The Texans scored 372 points and they allowed 372 points. When you're playing in a division with three sub-.500 teams, that is a little concerning. (The Rams were in a similar boat, as they actually allowed more points than they scored. However, they did go 4-1 (3-2 ATS) against AFC teams.) Importantly, Houston will be entering this season with a brand-new offensive line. We feel that catching the Texans early in the season, before they've had a chance for the offensive line to gel, favors the Rams. We also feel that the short number offers very fair value. Play on Los Angeles at -3, or better. 

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JJ McCarthy Regular Season Passing Yards OVER/UNDER     ***THIS IS A 3% CLIENT RELEASE PLAY***

3% JJ McCarthy Regular Season Passing Yards UNDER 3650.5 (-105)

J.J. McCarthy is coming off a significant torn meniscus in his right (load) leg, which required a full surgical repair. Just three months later, he underwent a second procedure due to lingering swelling in the same knee.

I watched every snap of McCarthy’s career at Michigan. During their national championship run, he was rarely trailing—only twice by my count. He operated from a clean pocket behind the best offensive line in the country, yet still averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game.

To hit the over on his current passing yardage prop, McCarthy would need to throw for more than Caleb Williams (3,541) and Jayden Daniels (3,568) did last year—both of whom were far more prolific college passers coming into the league.

One final note: Justin Jefferson is currently dealing with a mild left hamstring strain. For context, he missed seven games in 2023 due to a right hamstring tear.

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