parlay betting strategy

Time to learn about the best parlay betting strategy and multiple approaches to parlay betting- don’t go into parlay betting blindly – rely on knowledge, not optimism!

A parlay bet is a single wager that combines two or more individual bets into one. The appeal of parlay betting is the potential for a high payout if all the individual bets are successful.

However, the risk is also higher because all the bets must win for the parlay to payout.

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Math Behind Spread Parlays – Strategy to Spread Parlay Bets

Some parlays are more difficult to achieve than others. A parlay with three NFL spread legs is more difficult than winning a three-leg money line parlay involving 7-to-10-point favorites.

A single wager on the spread or total typically carries odds of -110 (Risk $110 to win $100) with an implied probability of 52.38%. In contrast, a standard two-pick parlay involving an NFL point spread or total pays out at +260 odds (Risk $100 to win $260).

A two-pick parlay has an implied probability of 27.78%. A three-team NFL parlay wager has odds of +600 (Risk $100 to win $600) with a probability of 14.29%.

Three single $100 spread bets at -110 odds would win $91 each in comparison to the three-team NFL spread parlay with +600 odds. Important to know when you consider your parlay betting strategy.

Parlay Betting Strategy: Moneyline Parlays

Parlaying moneylines can be a successful strategy when customers believe in the outcome of a game but want less of a risk factor. Lowering the risk leads to a lower payout, but a higher probability of being graded as a winning wager.

Selections Odds Risk $100 To Win
Buffalo Bills -270 $37.04
Kansas City Chiefs -310 $32.26
Philadelphia Eagles -150 $66.67

These picks would roughly win $37 (Bills), $32 (Chiefs), and $67 (Eagles) on three separate $100 wagers. Parlayed together in a three-team parlay, this would pay out at +202 odds, or $202 in potential profits.

Hedging Parlay Betting Strategy

One successful strategy for parlay betting is to hedge bets by including a mix of favorites and underdogs in the parlay.

For example, if a customer is confident in the outcomes of two games but want to hedge the parlay wager in case one of them doesn’t go as planned, the customer could include one favorite and one underdog in the parlay. This strategy is one that many consider to be the best parlay strategy.

If the favorite wins, the underdog pick helps to balance out the loss of the other game.

The other part of hedging is making selections based on when the game is being played. Frequently, parlay bets come down to one final game so leaving the Sunday Night Football selection as the last leg of a parlay means the customer can be able to hedge and win money no matter the result.

If the customer has won all the earlier games on the ticket at 1PM ET and 4PM ET and are staring at a potential payout heading into the last leg of the parlay, the customer may want to consider hedging the parlay ticket with a bet on the opposite side to guarantee a profit.

parlay betting strategy

Best Parlay Betting Strategies – Parlay Betting Hedging Example

One basic NFL parlay betting system for hedging is to risk half of the potential winnings on the other side. For example, there's one remaining game on a $100 four-team parlay paying at +1,100 odds (Risk $100 to win $1,100).

This final parlay pick has the underdog at +3.5 (-110). The customer could take $550 (half of those potential parlay winnings of $1,100) and wager on the -3.5 favorite (-110) to win $500. If the parlay loses, the customer would still be up $400 in profit overall (lost the original $100 parlay wager, won $500 on the -3.5-spread wager).

If the parlay wins, the customer would be up $550 in profits ($1,100 won from the original parlay ticket – $550 from the +3.5-spread hedge wager).

Parlay Betting Strategies – How to Use Correlated Parlays

Another strategy is to use correlated parlays, which involve combining two bets that are related in some way. For example, a customer could parlay the over on a game with a large spread favorite and the money line for that same favorite.

The idea is that if the favorite wins by a large margin, it is more likely that the game will go over the total, and both bets will be successful.

For example, the Alabama Crimson Tide are 10.5-point favorites against the Missouri Tigers, which indicates points will need to be scored to cover that spread.

Knowing a multiple-score lead is needed to cover the spread, creating a parlay card that has Alabama alternate spread -7.5 with an over of 48.5 makes sense in terms of the expectations the original spread created for the game.

Correlated Parlay Strategies & Same Game Parlay Betting

Correlated parlay strategies are often found in Same Game Parlay wagering. Customers will have to learn that correlated same game parlays yield less-than-expected payout results due to the likeliness of the events happening.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs. Tennessee Titans

Chiefs -6.5 first half

Over 47.5 full game

Creating a three-selection (all three -110 odds) parlay card should produce odds of around +600, but the three-leg same game parlay above produces odds of just over +350. Why is that?

Two of the three selections, Chiefs -10 and Chiefs -6.5 first half, are highly correlated. If the Chiefs get off to a quick start and are winning by 7 or more by halftime, it is likelier that they will continue to dominate and win the full game by more than 10 points.

The third leg is also correlated to both, as mentioned before, a large favorite covering usually requires scoring, and lots of it.

These are pain points the customer will have to learn on their own while playing with parlaying events within the same game or selection three outcomes from three different games on the schedule.

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Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

  • Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
  • Last-Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
  • Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.

Make sure to bookmark all the above!