Andy Lang

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• Last updated May 25 3:00 AM EDT

• SportGame SelectionGame Time

  MOT8005 Joey Logano #22 vs 8006 Brad Keselowski #28:00pm EDT - May 27/2020
  THE PLAY: 8006 Brad Keselowski #2 -115

  Brad Keselowski over Joey Logano In the 3 races coming off the break, Brad is averaging a 6th place finish where Logano is outside the top 12. Brad has finished ahead of Logano in all 3 of those races, and he was one of the top cars on Sunday that resulted in the win. Logano had a pit road penalty which pushed him back, but even then Brad was running ahead of Joey, and did so most of the race. There also is a big advantage in strategy. Brad is the best in NASCAR about using pit stops to get ahead of the field, and when it came down to it on the last pit stop, Logano lost spots, and Brad moved up to the lead. I get the better driver, in the better car with the advantage in pit strategy…I’ll gladly take Brad here.

My betting strategy is pretty simple.  From week to week, I believe I know more about NASCAR than the books, so going into every bet I feel I have an advantage.  There are some rules I follow in betting NASCAR that I have figured out works best over the years.  Here they are:

1.  I bet the same amount every bet.  There is no 1 unit, 2 units, or bet of the year.  If it's good enough for me to bet, it deserves the same amount as the other bets. 

2.  I'm cautious with what I bet meaning I only play the bets I'm very sure about.  I don't get cute with picks, or take picks I have a "gut feeling" about.  The numbers have to make sense, and if they do I play it. 

3.  I'm aggressive with the amout of bankroll I wager.  However, I don't like telling people how much of their bankroll to wager on each play.  It's your bankroll, that your business.  But for me, I am usually wagering around 5% of my bankroll per play.  To some it may sound like a lot, but I don't have a lot of bets going at any one time, so I can be a little more aggressive.  But always wager whats comfortable for you.

4.  Don't lay big juice.  It's a rule for most sports, but laying juice in auto racing is a recipe for disaster.  Racing is a weird sport to wager on sometimes.  With one flat tire, bad pit stop, or a crash the guy you bet on could have been winning your head to head matchup the entire race and lose it all of a sudden at the end.  So I've learned, no matter how good the matchup looks...stay away from the juiced up lines.  -125 is about the lowest I'll go.

5.  I stick to Head To Head matchups.  The days of getting value in picking outright winners is over.  Years ago you could get good value on guys to win at 12-1, 15-1, etc.  But the books got sick of giving out those big winners, so they've cut out all the value in outright winners (I'm sure me and some of my NASCAR gambling buddies are to blame for this).  The value for me is now in head to head picks.  That's what 99% of my NASCAR bets will be.  Occasionally, I might find a prop I like, but I like to stick to H2H's and just be really good at that.

5.  Always look at the big picture.  One of the hardest things to do.  Having a losing week sucks, but it's gambling...it happens.  I really noticed a positive change in my wagering career when I stopped letting one losing race affect my emotions and my gambling, and just relaxed and looked at the year as a whole.  It's why if someone wants to follow my NASCAR picks, I recommend to follow all year, and follow all picks.  Don't just pick various weeks to follow, or certain picks to bet, and laying off others.  It's a long term game.  The goal is to turn a profit over the course of a season.

 I have lived in Indianapolis for my whole life, and I have always loved and been fascinated with sports gambling.  Like most, I took my lumps when I first got started until I found the betting strategy that works for me ... and that's sticking to the sport I know best ... NASCAR!!!  I used to be the guy that bet all the sports, thinking I knew more about football, baseball and basketball than the books, and when I finally realized I was losing money at all those, and making money at betting NASCAR ... that's when sports gambling went from a hobby to a source of income.