Today's Top NBA Picks for Free- Expert NBA Predictions For Today February 26

2% Take the LA Lakers (#551)

Without Dillon Brooks and Devin Booker in the lineup, the Phoenix Suns have ground to a halt offensively in recent weeks.  It’s gotten even worse with bench sparkplug Jordan Goodwin sitting for the last two games. Phoenix hung a season low 77 points against the Blazers in a home loss last weekend, and followed that up with an 81 point effort against the Celtics in another home loss.  They’ve shot below 40% from the field in four straight games and rank #28 out of 30 NBA teams in offensive efficiency in their last ten contests.

Suns head coach Jordan Ott gives us a nice ‘bet-against’ quote here: “(Booker) has said it since Day 1 -- when you have five guys that are threats on the court, that's when it feels right and you can just play basketball. It's a rhythm to the game. Right now, we cannot find it.”

There’s all kinds of urgency for LA after suffering back-2-back losses vs the Celtics and Magic in their last two ballgames.  LA off a loss?  15-7 ATS, the second best pointspread record in the league in this role.  Luka, speaking to that urgency: “We've got to be more consistent. There's been a couple of games we should have won (during their 4-4 homestand).”  And it’s surely worth noting that the Lakers have been better SU and much better ATS on the highway this year than at home, cashing at a 67% clip FULL SEASON as road favorites.  Take the Lakers.

Line Parameter: 2% at -6 or lower, 1.5% a5 -6.5 or higher

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Since last season, the UNDER is a perfect 8-0 when the Clippers are coming off at least three straight "overs." These eight games stayed UNDER by an average margin of 11.1 points!

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Since 2009, NBA road favorites of five points or greater are 1800-1506-66 ATS (55%). Even better, .599 or worse road favorites of greater than -3 are 708-518-29 ATS (57.7%) following the All-Star break, including 308-191-6 ATS (61.7%) since 2016 and 217-123-6 ATS (63.8%) since the beginning of the 2020-21 season. Los Angeles falls into a very good 1316-1003-42 ATS (56.7%) NBA system of mine that dates to 2001 and invests on certain NBA road favorites of greater than three points. This situation has been 488-351-15 ATS (58.2%) since 2019. The Lakers arrive in Phoenix off a 110-109 loss to the Magic, which is notable because NBA road favorites coming off a loss are 1713-1409-58 ATS (55%), including 615-461-20 ATS (57.2%) with rest arriving off a home loss. This situation has been 277-194-8 ATS (58.8%) since 2018. Finally, the Lakers arrive with legitimate revenge for a 132-108 loss to Phoenix on December 23, and NBA conference road favorites of greater than -4 with revenge are 385-303-9 ATS (56%) since 2001. Lay the points with the Los Angeles Lakers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, February 26. **Don't miss Jeff's HUGE 4% NBA High Roller tonight as he's 11-2 (85%) in his last 13 releases and 23-10 (70%) in his last 33 plays overall!**

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

(537) Charlotte Hornets at (538) Indiana Pacers: Spread

Charlotte Hornets -12.5 (-113)

1. System Performance:

   • The system indicating that double-digit away favorites playing with revenge have a strong track record of 69-28-5 (71.4%) ATS since 2013.

2. Charlotte Hornets Performance:

   • Current Form: The Hornets are on a 9-1 (80%) ATS run, with their only loss coming as an underdog against Detroit. This demonstrates that they have been performing well and covering consistently.

   • Previous Favorites: Charlotte has been favored by -5.5 and higher only 7 times this season, achieving a record of 6-1 (85.7%) ATS, including their recent victory over Washington 129-112 as a 10.5-point away favorite just four days ago.

   • Revenge Performance: After losing to the Pacers at home on January 8, Charlotte has a strong record of 14-3 (82.4%) when seeking revenge, particularly effective as a favorite or underdog of +7 or less, going 11-1 (92%) ATS.

3. Indiana Pacers Performance:

   • Current Struggles: The Pacers have a disappointing 15-44 record, with indications that they may not be fully competitive (tanking?), especially as they manage rest minutes for various players.

   • Recent ATS Performance: They are 2-7 ATS since February 3 and have failed to cover in their 3 home games, with those games failing to cover by an average of 19.5 points.

   • Home Performance Post-Loss: Indiana is 2-6 (25%) ATS at home following a home loss, and particularly struggles when they are underdogs of +4 or higher, holding an 0-4 ATS record in those situations.

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Cooper Flagg is slated to miss another game for Dallas tonight at home as they host the 13-47 Kings. With Flagg’s absence, Max Christie will become the de-facto point guard once again for Dallas and we’ll take him to go over 14.5 points tonight. It’s no secret that the Kings defense has been abysmal this season sitting 28th in defensive efficiency heading into tonight. Over the last 30 days the Kings have allowed the most points per game to point guards and have allowed 126.6 points per game over their last five. In six games without Flagg this season Christie has averaged 15.6 points per game and it’s worth noting the Mavericks will also be without P.J. Washington who is averaging 14 points per game on the season. The Mavericks do return home after a five game road trip which should benefit Christie as well averaging 1.5 points more per game at home than on the road. With the Kings allowing the highest opponent field goal percentage per game on the season and Dallas missing 34+ points per game from their lineup tonight, let’s go with Christie to shine and get over 14.5 points.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

My selection is a FREE PICK on Orlando.

Houston heads into this matchup on the second night of a back to back after picking up a win over Sacramento on Wednesday. While the Rockets have been strong recently, this is far from an ideal situation for them. The quick turnaround combined with overnight travel puts them in a difficult spot, & it’s shown in their results. Houston has dropped six of its last nine games when playing the second leg of a back to back, including consecutive losses in this scenario. Acknowledging the fact that the Rockets have been far less effective on the road this year, this becomes a much tougher task.

Orlando, meanwhile, returns home after a productive road trip that saw the Magic win three of four games. That’s exactly the kind of result they were hoping for, especially with a back to back of their own in the mix, Now, Orlando returns home where it's played much better basketball, at 17-9 on the season. The Magic may have dropped the first meeting with Houston earlier this season in overtime, but the circumstances here are very different. With Orlando playing confident basketball & Houston coming in tired and on the road, I'm expecting home court to play a role on Thursday evening, leading to a Magic victory.

Play on Orlando.

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago

The Timberwolves enter Thursday’s game in good form, winners of 4 of their past 5. They’ve also won 5 of the past 6 meetings between the two teams and Kawhi Leonard is currently listed as questionable due to ankle soreness. Minnesota is fully healthy and will pick up the win while covering the rather short chalk in the process. Take the Timberwolves.

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Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago