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Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For May 16

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Scott Rickenbach MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(907) Houston Astros at (908) Texas Rangers
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 8.5 (-128) Action

#1 NBA 2025 P/O and 10-1 L11 MLB! ALERT Friday: NBA 4% TODAY! Overall, premiums: NBA 33-14 / +$8,216 and his free picks are on a MASSIVE 96-66 run since 23 July 2024 including 10-3 / 77% his last 13! Next one HERE:

Free Pick Rotation #908: MLB Friday Free Pick UNDER 8.5 -128 in Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros @ 8:05 ET - This is the alternate total but it is because I don't want to settle for a push if the game lands on 8 runs so we lay a little extra juice to have the under 8.5 in this one. Neither team has been hitting particularly well this season and yesterday's 1-0 Rangers win another example of that. I know McCullers is off a disastrous outing but that is the kind of nightmare outing a guy like him (with some past strong results in his career) can absolutely respond to. He will be ready here and, at the same time, the Texas starter is likely to dominate here. Nathan Eovaldi is 4-2 with a 1.78 ERA this season. Look for another pitchers duel here similar to what we saw yesterday and perhaps a 3-2 final and maybe 4-3 at the most. Free Pick UNDER 8.5 -128 in Texas

Released/revised 44 minute(s) ago

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Gianni the Greek MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(913) Washington Nationals at (914) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time:
Play:
1H Total Under 5.0 (-125) M Gore (LHP), C Povich (LHP) Must Start

3% thru Under 5 (-130)

2% thru Under 4.5 (-105)

Released/revised 46 minute(s) ago

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Steve Merril MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(929) Athletics at (930) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time:
Play:
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+117) J Sears (LHP), L Webb (RHP) Must Start

San Francisco starter Logan Webb projects to give up 2.0 runs with a 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.  Athletics’ lineup has hit just .154 (6-39) with a weak .350 OPS against Webb in his career.  The Athletics will start JP Sears.  The lefty projects to give up 2.8 earned runs with a 4.44 ERA and 1.43 WHIP.  With the starting pitching in San Francisco’s favor, look for the Giants to get a solid home win in this game on Friday night.

Play GIANTS (-1.5 runline).

-------------------

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Bryan Leonard MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(925) Seattle Mariners at (926) San Diego Padres
Date/Time:
Play:
Seattle Mariners +131 L Evans (RHP), S Kolek (RHP) Must Start

Seattle at San Diego

Two young hurlers face each other tonight in San Diego, as Logan Evans takes on Stephen Kolek. Evans has looked pretty good in the early going, but we are concerned about his lack of Whiffs, which is in the first percentile. 

Kolek enters with a perfect 0.00 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, but his xERA is 2.31. He will finally face an offense that’s not in the league dregs, like the Pirates and Rockies. 

After facing the pitching of Colorado and the Angels as of late, this Seattle pitching staff is a major step up. 

We rate the Mariners offense better in wRC+, and we like both bullpens. But look for Kolek to face some regression here, as we play the value on the visitor.

PLAY SEATTLE

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago

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Las Vegas Cris MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(909) Chicago White Sox at (910) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 11.5 (-115) Action

3% CHW/CHC over 11.5 (-115) action

Cade Horton will be making his first start for the Cubs after pitching four innings in relief against the Mets last week, where he allowed three runs on four hits. He looked solid through the first three innings but gave up a big home run late, which highlights our concern with him today. After reviewing his minor league numbers and his outing against New York, one thing stands out: Horton gives up a high rate of fly balls. Opposing hitters tend to get under his pitches—a dangerous combination with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. Even a struggling White Sox offense could take advantage of that.

On the other side, Shane Smith has done a good job inducing ground balls for the White Sox. His low ERA and decent advanced metrics, however, have come against a string of weaker opponents. His most impressive start was his last one—six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Marlins at home. But this Cubs lineup is a different challenge entirely, filled with professional hitters from top to bottom. Smith hasn’t faced an offense of this caliber yet this season.

Expect runs both early and late in this one. With two suspect bullpens and the wind turning routine fly balls into souvenirs, the over is in play.

DK and FD
Good to 12 -110

Released/revised 16 hour(s) ago

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Bryan Leonard MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(913) Washington Nationals at (914) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time:
Play:
1H Washington Nationals Total Over 2.5 (+125) M Gore (LHP), C Povich (LHP) Must Start

913 Washington at Baltimore

Why are the Orioles betting favorites here? What have they done to deserve being favored over Gore? This is an extremely disappointing Baltimore squad, and they are throwing a very weak starter. Cade Povich is 4-12 in his short MLB history. With a 5.55 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His expected ERA is 6.25. He cannot hold down a pretty good hitting Nationals squad. And we get plus money by just scoring three runs in the first five innings. 

PLAY WASHINGTON TT 1H OVER 2.5

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12-0 OVERALL RUN! 4% MLB BEST BET: $25.00

We continued our winning streak, now 12 in a row, with the Astros/Rangers under in a 1-0 final. Can't find much more of a no sweat 5% play. Friday we return to the diamond with a 4% Best Bet. Better yet, grab a three day package for only $49. Time to ride the lighting with overall profitable run. 

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Mark Zinno MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(905) Detroit Tigers at (906) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time:
Play:
Detroit Tigers -111 J Flaherty (RHP), B Francis (RHP) Must Start

I broke this play down on the Morning Wager with Bryan Power on WagerTalk YouTube, linked here:

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

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Dwayne Bryant MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(903) Colorado Rockies at (904) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 9.0 (+100) Action

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLE:

Play UNDER on all teams where the total is 8 to 9.5 after allowing 7 or more runs in 2 straight games, and facing an opponent off scoring 3 or fewer runs in 2 straight games.  Applies to Arizona.

29-11-4 (72.5%) since the 2021 season, staying UNDER by an average of 1.1 runs per game.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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The Gold Sheet MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(911) Cleveland Guardians at (912) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 9.0 (-103) Action

Early forecasts were calling for some rain in Cincinnati on Friday evening, but updated reports suggest this game should be played with no major issues. The high humidity and warm temps should help the ball carry at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Cincinnati's Brady Singer allowed seven runs on nine hits in 2.1 innings against Houston in his last start. The Guardians' current roster is hitting .418 in 143 plate appearances against Singer with a 13.3-percent strikeout rate and a .469 weighted on-base average. Jose Ramirez is 12-for-27 with two doubles and three home runs. Cleveland's Tanner Bibee ranks in the bottom-20th percentile among pitchers in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. Pitchers that do not generate strikeouts and pitch to weak contact typically do not fare well in Cincinnati.

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Ralph Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(901) Pittsburgh Pirates at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time:
Play:
1I Total Under 0.5 (-115) A Heaney (LHP), R Suarez (LHP) Must Start

(901) Pittsburgh Pirates at (902) Philadelphia Phillies

 First Inning Total Under 0.5 (-115) A Heaney (LHP), R Suarez (LHP) Must Start

When both teams have no rest they are 51% NRFI when both teams have rest the NRFI is 52.5%.

Pittsburgh is 7-1 NRFI and have not scored a 1st inning run in those 8 games.

Philly did score in the 2nd game of the DH but they are 5-1 NRFI their L6 games. 

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Jeff Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(915) New York Mets at (916) New York Yankees
Date/Time:
Play:
New York Mets +122 T Megill (RHP), C Rodon (LHP) Must Start

(915) New York Mets at (916) New York Yankees

New York Mets +122 T Megill (RHP), C Rodon (LHP) Must Start

The Mets are #1 in profit facing a team with a winning record going 15-5 (+27.9% ROI).

The Yankees are in a negative scheduling spot (-11.5% ROI) playing at home with rest and coming off at least a 6 game road trip including winning the last game of the road trip. 

 

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Drew Martin MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(913) Washington Nationals at (914) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time:
Play:
Washington Nationals +100 M Gore (LHP), C Povich (LHP) Must Start

Free Pick Recap: 4-1 (+3.10 units) 
Thursday= Houston Astros (+110) LOSS 
Wednesday= NY Yankees (-110) WINNER 🏆
Tuesday= Tampa Bay Rays (+110) WINNER 🏆
Monday= Detroit Tigers (-102) WINNER 🏆 
Sunday= Padres/ Rockies over 11 WINNER  🏆 

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Today’s MLB Betting show:

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

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Tokyo Brandon MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
2 Leg PArlay
Date/Time:
Play:
ARI Diamondbacks -1 (-343) / LA Dodgers Moneyline (-298)

This is a 2 leg parlay featuring 2 of the best offenses in MLB. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a concern but the Rockies is just as bad and Burnes should go 7 innings so little exposure for them. At home both of these power teams should have no trouble dusting the dregs of MLB.

With Kim and Muncy staring to heat up the Dodgers seem unstoppable even without T Hernandez.

 

RANKINGS     SP     TEAM     SP BB/K%     BATTING (30)     BULLPEN (30)     SP (30)
      Corbin Burnes     ARI     55.1%     8.6     23.8     10.5
      --     COL     --     21.7     23.3     --

 

RANKINGS     SP     TEAM     SP BB/K%     BATTING (30)     BULLPEN (30)     SP (30)
      Dustin May     LAD     46.4%     4.0     17.0     19.1
      Jack Kochanowicz     LAA     77.5%     22.2     27.0     23.0

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

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Jimmy Adams MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(911) Cleveland Guardians at (912) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time:
Play:
Cleveland Guardians -119 T Bibee (RHP), B Singer (RHP) Must Start

Fresh off a series win over Milwaukee and a day off to rest, the Guardians head to take on a Cincinnati squad that’s lost 3 of their past 4. Tanner Bibee has been terrific, not allowing more than 2 earned in any of his past 4 starts. The same cannot be said for Brady Singer, who was just knocked around for 7 earned in just over 2 innings. He’s now given up 11 in his past two starts and we’ll look for those struggles to continue as Cleveland takes the opener. Take the Guardians. 

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago

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Tokyo Brandon MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(917) Atlanta Braves at (918) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time:
Play:
1H Total Under 4.5 (-150) C Sale (LHP), G Crochet (LHP) Must Start

Two top ten starters and two lineups (especially Atlanta) that are lacking a bit in run production. Forget the bullpens take the alt under 1st 5  4.5

RANKINGS     SP     TEAM     SP BB/K%     BATTING (30)     BULLPEN (30)     SP (30)
     Garrett Crochet     BOS     33.7%     11.6     9.5     5.2
     Chris Sale     ATL     21.4%     21.6     9.5     5.5

Released/revised 13 hour(s) ago

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Teddy Covers MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(927) Los Angeles Angels at (928) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 9.0 (-120) Action

2% Take the LA Dodgers – LA Angels OVER (#927-928) (action)

The Dodgers went Over the total by themselves AGAIN last night, this time by the bottom of the third inning; another ‘right side’ cash for my clients and I.  I have no hesitation running it back again on Friday Night. 

Last night’s Dodgers offensive outburst isn’t new or different on this homestand, or the last one! LA has produced seven runs or more seven times in their last eight home games; a World Series winning lineup that is clicking on all cylinders right now.   Those last eight home games?  8-0 to the Over. 

Meanwhile, the Angels are trending Over as well, 11-4 to the Over in their last 15 ballgames thanks to a decent lineup and lots of dicey bullpen work.  I’m going with an ‘action’ wager here – this is NOT a bet largely based on the starting pitching matchup. That said, it’s certainly worth noting we don’t have two aces on the hill Friday Night.  Expect fireworks, just like the last two nights!  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 2% at 9.5 or lower, 1.5% at 10 or higher

Released/revised 14 hour(s) ago

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Looking for free MLB picks from professional Major League Baseball Handicappers?  Wagertalk's expert handicappers provide top daily MLB expert picks at absolutely no charge.  

Free MLB Picks - 2025 MLB Picks and Predictions From Experts

Here you can find free MLB expert betting picks from WagerTalk's elite team of handicappers. Detailed game previews, analysis, and predictions backed by statistics. Get going with 100% FREE hot MLB picks of the day - get an edge.
Run Line Picks, Moneylines, MLB Props, MLB Parlays from WagerTalk: 

WagerTalk offers you free MLB predictions and betting picks every day of 2025 for MLB games - from the Pirates to the Giants to.. well, every team in Major League Baseball.   And don't forget our daily HR Props!

What Free MLB Picks Does WagerTalk Offer In 2025?

WagerTalk offers every type of MLB expert picks you could possibly want.  At WagerTalk you'll find daily free MLB picks that include: 

Moneyline MLB Picks Free:  

Naturally.  You have to offer moneyline picks and WagerTalk certainly does for MLB. 

Free MLB RunLine Picks: 

You'll find MLB runline picks galore at WagerTalk.  So what is the runline and why should you bet on it?  Well, simple!

The runline is baseball's version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Truly, the runline is the great equalizer - it's just a little easier to place a bet when you've got a 2 run head start, right?

WagerTalk's expert MLB handicappers are runline prediction masterminds.  

Totals Betting Best Picks for MLB:

Total runs betting picks are an absolute staple of WagerTalk MLB handicappers. A major component of how to bet on baseball, a total runs wager is super straightforward, as the customer is picking whether the two teams will score over or under the listed number of runs combined during the game. The great part of a total runs pick is that you're basically just rooting for a ton of scoring.  Everybody loves that. 

Free Hitter Props Markets MLB Predictions - Including Daily Home Run Prop Picks:

WagerTalk offers MLB player props for hitters throughout the year.  A great betting market, you're simply betting on how a specific batter will perform during a game - the perfect market to bet if you're more of a player of an MLB hitter than an MLB team.  Find even more free MLB picks and player props at our sister site. 

Our daily HR home prop article is the most popular such article online!

Pitching Props Free MLB Picks of the Day:

You'll find MLB pitching prop picks from WagerTalk all during the long long MLB season.   Like hitting props, bettors can get some terrific ML picks free from WagerTalk - pitcher prop picks that help them select how their ace pitcher will perform on the mound. Each starting pitcher usually receives a list of pitching props, such as: 'Total Pitching Strikeouts', 'Total Hits Allowed', 'Total Outs Recorded', 'Total Earned Runs Allowed', and more.

Same Game Parlay MLB Best Bets: 

Now and then you can find MLB same game parlay picks from expert MLB handicappers at WagerTalk. 

Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets? 

What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?

Did you make a bet on any of these?  If you did, you're an expert already.

  • Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
  • Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
  • Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
  • Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
  • Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002

 

Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001.  They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.

After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954,  the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.

 

Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The Chicago Cubs take it.  116 games in 1906. Nuts.  They went 116-36.  The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022.  The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins.  The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well. 

Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?

Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903?  Indeed it has!  And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties. 

Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles.  Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.

Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?

Yogi Berra.  Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi.  10 World Series titles!

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