Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For March 13

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Diamondbacks -105:

1. The probable starter edge is on Arizona.
The listed matchup for this spring game is Merrill Kelly vs. Michael Wacha. Wacha has a solid spring line so far, but Merrill Kelly is the more established, higher-trust starter in a vacuum, and Arizona at a near-pick’em price is easier to stomach when the listed arm is Kelly..

2. -105 is basically asking Arizona to be only a hair better.
At -105, the D-backs need to win about 51.2% of the time to break even. Kansas City -115 implies about 53.5%. That gap is tiny, and in spring training tiny gaps get swallowed by bullpen chaos, prospect innings, and lineups made of half-regulars and half-baseball goblins.

3. Kansas City is still dragging a weak spring record into this game.
The Royals probable page lists this matchup with Arizona 8-12 and Kansas City 6-12 entering the game. Spring records are noisy, but if one side is going to be favored, Kansas City’s résumé is not exactly begging for it..

4. Arizona’s current spring form is ugly, but that may already be baked into the price.
Arizona just got blasted 13-2 by Colorado, and that game included 12 free passes from the D-backs staff. That kind of stink bomb can shade the next number a bit, which is exactly when a near-pick’em becomes more interesting if the listed starter is still a quality veteran like Kelly.

5. Kansas City still has WBC-related lineup leakage.
Royals coverage notes the club has been missing key players such as Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino because of the World Baseball Classic. In spring, absences like that matter more than usual because depth gets stress-tested fast.

6. The Royals’ favorite price looks a little logo-driven.
Michael Wacha has a strong early spring stat line, which explains some KC respect, but not enough for me to want the Royals as a favorite over a Kelly-led Arizona side at basically even money. The cleaner betting logic is that Arizona needs only a very modest edge to justify -105, and that bar is easier to clear than asking KC to justify favorite status.

My lean: Arizona -105 over Kansas City -115.
Not a giant edge, but of the two prices, Arizona is the saner side. Near-pick’em spring games are exactly where I’d rather side with the team offering the slightly cheaper ticket and the sturdier listed starter..

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

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Cardinals +114:

1. The listed starter matchup is closer than the price suggests.
For the current Astros-Cardinals spring matchup on the official Astros probable page, the listed starters are Kai-Wei Teng for Houston and Kyle Leahy for St. Louis. Teng has the better spring line so far — 3.18 ERA, 4 SO versus Leahy’s 5.19 ERA, 9 SO — but this is not some giant ace-vs-gas-can situation that screams lay road chalk in March.

2. St. Louis has the better spring record right now.
The same MLB probable-pitchers page shows Cardinals 10-8 and Astros 7-8 for this matchup. Spring records are noisy little swamp creatures, but if Houston is the favorite anyway, St. Louis at plus money gets more interesting.

3. Houston is still sorting out a crowded, unsettled rotation picture.
MLB’s projected 2026 team outlook says the Astros are likely to use a six-man rotation early and still have a lot of competition for the final spots, including McCullers, Arrighetti, Ryan Weiss, Colton Gordon, AJ Blubaugh, and Nate Pearson. That kind of pitching shuffle adds uncertainty, which is not ideal when you’re laying -135 in a spring game.

4. St. Louis is also experimenting, but that can help in spring.
MLB’s Cardinals rotation piece says their staff is unusually unsettled, with spring functioning like a broad competition and the club essentially “throwing a lot of pitchers at the wall to see what sticks.” In regular season, that ambiguity can be scary. In spring, it can be useful, because games often become depth contests by the middle innings anyway.

5. The price math favors the dog more than the favorite.
+114 implies roughly a 46.7% break-even win rate. -135 implies about 57.4%. For an exhibition game with short starter outings and bullpen roulette, I do not see enough separation between these clubs to justify Houston needing to win at that kind of clip.

6. Road spring favorites are usually where value goes to die wearing expensive shoes.
Houston may be the slightly likelier winner on paper because Teng’s current spring numbers are cleaner, but the combination of Astros rotation uncertainty, Cardinals better current spring record, and plus-money on the home side makes St. Louis the more appealing ticket.

Released/revised 12 hour(s) ago