Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For July 5

This is the first game on the betting card for Sunday, note the early start time at 11:35am ET/ 8:35am PT. The Orioles as the sizable underdog are the free pick for today behind starter Trevor Rogers. The lefty has looked sharp since rejoining the Baltimore rotation. He has only let up 13 hits over his 22 innings of work and is sporting a 2 flat ERA. 

Atlanta is really banged up right now and the Braves bats have been ice cold. The Braves have lost each of their last 3 games and have been burning cash. They are already down over (-22 units) on the season. Atlanta starter Grant Holmes is just (2-6) in his last 8 decisions. This team is “Fade City” and we are attacking them with the nice plus price with the underdog Orioles. Bet Baltimore. 

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Sunday's MLB Betting Show: 

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Stephen Kolek has a massive 9.20 ERA/1.57 WHIP during 3 home starts in 2025. Patrick Corbin has reverted back to his customary bade form he shown in recent seasons. Corbin has posted a hefty 6.43 ERA/1.67 WHIP over his last 4 starts. Both teams' bullpens have been very good during the past week. So, we're going to eliminate them from the handicapping equation and look to take advantage of these 2 starting pitchers' struggles. 

For a more detailed analysis on this matchup, and a bonus free winner in the Astros/Dodgers game, watch the video below.

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San Francisco starter Logan Webb projects to give up just 2.0 runs with a 2.93 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.  Athletics’ lineup has hit just .073 (3-41) with a weak .205 OPS against Webb in his career.  The Athletics will start Luis Severino.  The righty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Saturday night.

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F5 GIANTS (-0.5) vs ATHLETICS

Webb vs Severino. Enough said. Severino has been throwing batting practice for about a month and has been lit up at home in Sacramento this season going 0-7 in those starts. While Webb is better at home, he is still far and away the better starting pitcher in this matchup and I expect the Giants to get to him before the A's get to Webb. Lay the half run in the F5 with the Giants. 

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929 Pittsburgh at Seattle

Now on a 12-4 run with these Free Plays, looking to continue on Saturday with a nice underdog. The Pirates are playing their best ball of the season, and rookie Mike Burrows is rounding into form. After initial struggles, he's now become a pretty solid member of this Pirates rotation.

He takes on Luis Castillo who is just living on reputation at this time in his career. His Statcast page show a lot of blue, which is below league average. First percentile in Extension, 14th percentile in Barrel Percentage, and 10th percentile in Hard Hit Rate. This line is simply too high based on how these teams have played as of late.

PLAY PITTSBURGH

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Yes, it's Coors Field. Yes, hitting conditions are going to be very favorable. Yes, we have two starting pitchers that have a combined record of 5-16 this season. But you still need two lineups to put the bat on the ball to score a dozen runs, regardless of the conditions or the opponent. We only saw five runs in Friday's contest and we certainly wouldn't be shocked if we saw another low-scoring affair on Saturday. The Rockies and White Sox have the two worst offenses in baseball against right-hand pitching this season. Chicago is hitting .215 (last) with a .294 on-base percentage (No. 29) and a 76 wRC+ (No. 29). Colorado is hitting .231 (No. 27) with a .292 on-base percentage (last) and a 74 wRC+ (last). Colorado's Germán Márquez is having one of those unicorn seasons where he's pitching better at Coors Field than on the road. Márquez has a 4.32 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP at home this season compared to a 6.48 ERA with a 1.72 WHIP on the road. In his last home start against the Dodgers, he was nearly perfect through the first three innings (one single allowed) but his day was ruined in the fourth inning when the Rockies committed two errors. Márquez has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last four starts (20.1 innings). Chicago's bullpen should be in good shape for this one after Adrian Houser went 8.0 innings on Friday. Jonathan Cannon is still ramping up after coming off the IL in June and hasn't gone past 3.0 innings since his return, but with a fully-available bullpen, Will Venable will be able to find favorable matchups in the second half of this contest. The under is 26-17-2 in Chicago’s road games this season.

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