Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For August 20

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Oskeim Sports MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(959) Los Angeles Angels at (960) Houston Astros: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Houston Astros -174 Grayson Rodriguez (RHP), Peter Lambert (RHP) Must Start

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The Astros have a major starting-pitching advantage Thursday with Peter Lambert opposing a struggling Grayson Rodriguez. Lambert enters 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has been remarkably consistent, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts. His swing-and-miss stuff has also been trending upward, as Lambert has recorded at least six strikeouts in six consecutive appearances against American League opponents. Rodriguez has been at the opposite end of the spectrum, carrying an alarming 7.17 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, creating an inviting matchup for a Houston lineup that ranks third in baseball with 170 home runs. Rodriguez enters off consecutive losses to the Marlins and Royals, which is significant because MLB road underdogs with starting pitchers coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings are 406-763 SU (34.7%; -7.1% ROI) and 509-474 RL (-6.4% ROI) in the last game of a series, including 125-259 SU (32.6%; -12.6% ROI) and 182-202 RL (-13.2% ROI) since 2016, losing by an average margin of 1.5 runs per game. Yordan Alvarez remains the centerpiece of that offense, batting .317 with 36 home runs and 88 RBIs while leading qualified hitters with a .610 slugging percentage.

The matchup becomes even more favorable when considering an Angels offense averaging only 2.5 runs per game over its last five and ranking 29th in the majors in slugging percentage (.373). Los Angeles has also been one of baseball's weakest road teams at 21-41, while Houston has won four of the last five meetings between these American League West rivals. The situational trends reinforce the Astros' advantage, with Los Angeles losing nine consecutive Thursday-night games to winning teams and failing to cover the run line in five of its last six games following a road loss. The Astros are 56-21 SU (72.7%; 4.7%; ROI) and 45-32 RL (58.4%; +6.6% ROI) in home division games versus opponents with 12 or fewer wins, winning by an average margin of 1.9 runs per game since 2018. With the superior starter, considerably more power, home-field advantage, and an Angels lineup struggling to generate offense, take the Houston Astros as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Thursday, August 20.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

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Ben Burns MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(955) Oakland Athletics at (956) Kansas City Royals: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Kansas City Royals -134 Action

This seems to be a very fair price on Kansas City. The Royals have won four straight and five of their last six. While their season may be done, the Royals are now 13-4 their last 17 home games. Back-to-back late comebacks has them feeling good. KC outfielder John Rave had this to say: "Two awesome nights in a row, and we're gonna keep it going." The opposite is true of the Athletics. They've dropped three straight and seven of nine. They've won just four of their last 23 road games and have the worst overall record (49-78) in the league. Royals starter Dobnak has an excellent 1.73 ERA in eight appearances, six starts. I like their chances of completing the 4-game sweep.

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

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Joe Raineri MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(963) Atlanta Braves at (964) Chicago White Sox: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Over 8.5 (-114) Grant Holmes (RHP), Anthony Kay (LHP) Must Start

Both offenses enter with favorable platoon matchups against pitchers carrying significant underlying regression indicators.

Atlanta has produced a .848 OPS, .358 estimated wOBA, and seven home runs against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Anthony Kay has prevented runs recently, but his 4.99 xERA and 4.79 FIP remain well above his surface results. His modest strikeout rate leaves him dependent on contact management against an Atlanta lineup built to damage lefties.

Chicago ranks fifth against right-handed pitching during the same period with a .772 OPS and .337 estimated wOBA. Grant Holmes owns a 4.78 xERA, 4.91 FIP and 3.90 BB/9 while carrying an inflated 81.2% strand rate. He allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings in his last start and previously surrendered three runs in 3 2/3 innings against Chicago.

The bullpens on both teams also leave room for late scoring. Atlanta’s bullpen has recorded a 5.12 ERA and 1.60 WHIP recently, while Chicago’s bullpen carries a 4.28 FIP, 4.82 xFIP and 4.91 BB/9 for the season.

Atlanta can damage Kay’s contact-heavy profile, while Chicago is positioned to score throughout the game against Holmes and Atlanta’s struggling relief corps.

Play: Over 8.5

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

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Ralph Michaels MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(963) Atlanta Braves at (964) Chicago White Sox: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
First Inning Under (-115) Grant Holmes (RHP), Anthony Kay (LHP) Must Start

(963) Atlanta Braves at (964) Chicago White Sox: Total

First Inning Under (-115) Grant Holmes (RHP), Anthony Kay (LHP) Must Start

Holmes is 9-0 & 19.4 NRFI with a 3.82 ERA

Kay is 15-6 NRFI with a 4.08 ERA

Atlanta has failed to score a first inning run in 4 straight and 8 straight road games

The White Sox have not scored a first inning run in 4 straight games

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

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Jimmy Adams MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(963) Atlanta Braves at (964) Chicago White Sox: Moneyline
Date/Time:
Play:
Atlanta Braves -106 Action

Atlanta needs to break a losing streak and facing a pitcher who is primed for regression will help them do just that today on the South Side. Anthony Kay’s numbers look decent on the surface, but almost every one of his advanced analytics is below league average. He ranks in just the 16th percentile in pitching run value overall, doesn’t strike out many batters, and has a high barrel rate as well as hard hit percentage. That’s a pitcher the Braves can do damage on, considering they’ve hit the 3rd most home runs in the league and scored the 7th most runs overall. Grant Holmes is in a bounce back spot, but prior to his last outing had thrown back to back shutouts of 6 innings in each. The ATL also has the 4th best bullpen in the league once he exits. Take the Braves.

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Steve Merril MLB Tab Major League Baseball

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Event:
(957) New York Yankees at (958) Baltimore Orioles: Total
Date/Time:
Play:
Total Under 8.0 (-102) Gerrit Cole (RHP), Kyle Bradish (RHP) Must Start

Baltimore starter Kyle Bradish projects to give up just 2.3 runs with a 3.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.  New York’s lineup has hit just .191 (13-68) with a weak .650 OPS against Bradish in his career.  The Yankees will start Gerrit Cole.  The righty projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.14 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Thursday night.

Play UNDER the total.

-------------------

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets? 

What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?

Did you make a bet on any of these?  If you did, you're an expert already.

  • Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
  • Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
  • Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
  • Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
  • Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002

 

Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001.  They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.

After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954,  the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.

 

Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?

The Chicago Cubs take it.  116 games in 1906. Nuts.  They went 116-36.  The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022.  The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins.  The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well. 

Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?

Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903?  Indeed it has!  And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties. 

Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles.  Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.

Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?

Yogi Berra.  Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi.  10 World Series titles!

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