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Free English Premier League Predictions for APR 13

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Bryan Power EPL Tab English Premier League

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(200105) Aston Villa at (200106) Arsenal
REGULATION Arsenal -1.5 (-120)

Arsenal has a shot to go back to the top of the table with a win on Sunday. If the Gunners were to capture all three points (as expected) here, then - at worse - they'll come out of the weekend level on points with Liverpool (who hosts Crystal Palace) but almost certainly still have the better YTD goal differential. Right now, both Arsenal and Liverpool trail Man City by two points after the Cityzens blitzed Luton Town 5-1 on Saturday.

I not only expect Arsenal to come out ahead in this fixture with Aston Villa, but to win it by multiple goals. Therefore, I'll lay the -1.5 with the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium. With that may seem a bit risky on paper - Aston Villa is 4th in the table themselves - remember Villa recently visited Man City and lost 4-1. Both Arsenal and Villa are coming off European commitments midweek, but the Gunners have had more time to rest after Tuesday's 2-2 draw with Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Villa played in the Europa Conference League (where they are favorites to win) on Thursday, beating Lille 2-1. Arsenal having more depth than Villa makes them better suited to play in between European fixtures anyway. 

Plus Villa will also be without key midfielder Douglas Luiz (suspended) for this one. But the real issue for the Clarets has been on the back end as they've been terrible defensively since Jan 1, conceding at least 1.5 xGA in 11 straight EPL matches. They are third worst in the league in xGA since the turn of the New Year. Conversely, Arsenal is the best defensive team in the world at the moment, having conceded just four goals in league play since Jan 1 and 0.66 xGA per match at home for the entire season. Not only has it been three straight clean sheets, but in defeating Luton and Brighton 5-0 on aggregate the L2 weeks, Arsenal have allowed just three SHOTS on target! They also have revenge here for a 1-0 loss at Villa Park back in December, so there will be no shortage of motivation in between the two ties with Bayern.


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