Bryan Power

THE PLAY: REGULATION Wolverhampton Wanderers -104

3% Wolverhampton (10:00 AM ET): With only four fixtures remaining, Luton Town remains with the other two promoted sides for 2023/24 (Burnley/Sheffield United) down in the relegation zone. It’s somewhat fascinating that after last season - where the three newly promoted sides (Fulham, Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest) all survived - this season may see all sent right back down to the Championship. Now the Hatters are just one point adrift of safety entering matchweek #35 but to be honest the only reason they even have a chance at staying up is because the point deductions levied upon both Everton and Forest. 

Luton Town supporters will look at this fixture with Wolves, who have zero wins in their last seven Premier League matches, as the best chance to pick up maximum points. But that has led to the visitors being way overvalued in the marketplace for this one. Wolves’ recent form may be poor, but getting them at this price, needing only a win is simply too good to pass up. Certainly, the hosts will recall September’s 1-1 draw in the reverse at Kenilworth Road where they had to play down a man for the final 50+ minutes and the lone goal conceded came on a penalty. That was also Luton Town’s first ever point in the Premier League. 

Given the recent form, it’s easy to forget that - once upon a time - Wolves were closing in on the top six in the table. They’ve slipped to 12th, but can still finish top half and that’s something to play for. The injury situation isn’t as bad as it was midweek in the 1-0 loss to Bournemouth as Hwang Hee-chan & Matheus Cunha have both been deemed fit to play. The fact of the matter is that Luton Town is second from the bottom in the league in both xPts and xGD and has - by far - the highest xGA. They very much deserve to be relegated (by the numbers) and have lost four straight away matches with 13 goals conceded. So I’ll call for Wolves to pick up all three points here. 3% Wolverhampton (Play to -125)