Bryan Power

THE PLAY: Total Over 148.0 (-110)

Perhaps no Sweet 16 team can claim to have a more impressive pair of tournament wins (thus far) than what Arkansas has. The Razorbacks beat Kansas 79-72 as 5-point underdogs, then St. John’s 75-66 as 7-point underdogs. Now what makes those two wins even more impressive is not just that they averaged 77 points against two of the top 10 defenses in the country. But they did so while shooting a combined 8 of 43 from three-point range (just 18.6%!) 

Now Texas Tech is no slouch defensively, plus they play slower than both Kansas & St. John’s. But the Red Raiders are “only” 37th in adjusted defensive efficiency. So a notable gap between them and Arkansas’ first two tourney opponents. On the flip side, I expect Texas Tech to improve its own three-point shooting as well as they were just 15 of 60 (25%) from three in their two wins so far and yet still averaged 79.5 PPG.  

So, to summarize, these two teams have produced games with 141, 151, 141 and 154 points - despite TERRIBLE three-point shooting! And don’t forget St. John’s was 2 of 22 vs. Arkansas. Or that Texas Tech still scored 77 despite making just two threes against the team that plays at the slowest pace in the country. Play the Over here.