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THE PLAY: Real Madrid -105
3% Real Madrid (3:00 ET): This is a major revenge spot for Los Blancos, who infamously lost here at the Estadio de Luz on the final matchday of the League Phase, by a score of 4-2. That dramatic result secured Benfica a spot in the Knockout Stage, but only on goal differential after a header from goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin found the back of the net - eight minutes into stoppage time - right after two Real Madrid players had been sent off the pitch. Conversely, Los Blancos were denied a top eight finish in the League Phase, which would have meant automatic progression to the final 16 of the competition. I am expecting a different result in this first leg of the Knockout Playoff.
While Real Madrid haven’t been their usual consistent selves in Europe this season, they’ll make this second trip to Portugal having won four of their last five across all competitions including three straight in La Liga where they are now top of the table following Saturday’s dominating 4-1 victory over Real Sociedad. That was without Kylian Mbappe, mind you. (More on him in a moment). I think it’s also worth mentioning that Real Madrid closed around -140 for the League Phase match vs. Benfica. Now we’re able to get them at a cheaper price. They controlled 67% of possession for the previous fixture. Not only did Benfica get the stoppage time header (when Real Madrid were down two men) but they converted a penalty in 1H stoppage time as well!
Besides the revenge angle, the other big story here is that Mbappe is set to return to the pitch. He scored both goals for Real Madrid in the previous fixture. I know that Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are both out Tuesday, but Mbappe and Vinicius Junior (two goals Saturday) are enough to convince me that the Spanish side is the right one to back in this first leg. Mbappe has 13 goals in seven UCL matches, the highest rate of any player in a single UCL campaign with at least five matches played. He leads a Real Madrid attack that was 1st in the League Phase in direct attacks and 4th in goals scored with 21, more than double what Benfica scored (10). 3% Real Madrid (Play to -140)
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Consultant Bio
After spending the previous decade at Covers Experts, Bryan Power has wasted little time establishing himself here at WagerTalk. A consistent winner since first emerging on the scene back in 2011, Power didn't have a single losing calendar year in his first decade as a pro handicapper! In April & May of this year (2022), he went on an amazing 154-99-2 (+$41,322) with all plays! October is when he truly made his mark at WT, at one point cashing 22 of 26 plays (85%).
Power handicaps football (both NFL and college), basketball (NBA and college), MLB, Soccer (most major European leagues), and the UFC. He uses a personal set of power ratings, combined with situational handicapping, to make his selections. Multiple bets per day across multiple sports are the norm. Client plays are rated 3%-5%.
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