Oskeim Sports

THE PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -203 Max Scherzer (RHP), Drew Rasmussen (RHP) Must Start

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Tampa Bay suffered a 10-5 loss to the Blue Jays in the opening game of this series, which is significant because division home favorites greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1354-687 SU (66.3%; +1.4% ROI) and +3.0 ROI against the run line, including 458-208 SU (68.8%; +3.6% ROI) and 349-317 RL (+7.1% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of 1.8 runs per game. Moreover, large home favorites with immediate revenge are 864-365 SU (70.3% ROI) and 560-506 RL (+4.4% ROI), winning by an average of 1.7 runs per game. The Rays are 56-14 SU (80%; +26.3% ROI) and 36-34 RL (+13.3% ROI) as home favorites of greater than -140 following a game in which they allowed six or more runs versus the same opponent, winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs per game. Tampa Bay right-hander Drew Rasmussen toes the rubber with a 2.78 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.93 FIP, and a 3.19 xFIP, together with elite 9.26 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 rates. The talented 31-year-old is 4-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 14 appearances against the Blue Jays in his career. I also like the fact that Rasmussen is 33-16 SU (67.3%; +8.8% ROI) and 26-23 RL (+14.1% ROI) as a favorite of -130 or greater in his career.

Meanwhile, Toronto starter Max Scherzer takes the mound with a 6.59 ERA, 4.69 xERA, 6.38 FIP, and a 5.33 XFIP, together with mediocre 6.80 K/9 and 3.73 BB/9 rates. The 42-year-old veteran has also been susceptible to the long ball (2.41 HR/9) this season. Finally, Toronto falls into a very negative 3063-5396 (36.2%; -3.7% ROI) and 2601-4624 (36%; -4.2% ROI) systems that date to 2005 and invest against certain road underdogs versus .551 or greater opponents. These situations have lost by an average margin of 1.1 and 1.2 runs per game, respectively. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, August 19.

THE PLAY: Cincinnati Reds -138 Matthew Liberatore (LHP), Chase Burns (RHP) Must Start

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The Reds have a substantial starting-pitching advantage on Wednesday with Chase Burns opposing Matthew Liberatore in the series finale. Burns has been outstanding this season, going 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, while Liberatore enters at 5-10 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Burns’ 2026 Metrics

• 2.47 ERA, 3.04 xERA, 3.14 FIP, and 3.50 xFIP

• 10.37 K/9 and 3.16 BB/9 rates

• 0.89 HR/9 and 9.2% HR/FB

Burns has been particularly sharp recently, allowing one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts, and he has won each of his last six home appearances against National League opponents. His swing-and-miss ability also gives Cincinnati an important edge, as Burns has recorded at least six strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 night starts. The Reds' offense has struggled lately, but this is an excellent matchup to get back on track against a vulnerable Liberatore who has surrendered five earned runs in two of his last four outings. Sal Stewart remains Cincinnati's biggest run producer with 26 home runs and 91 RBIs, and he has recorded at least one hit in 16 consecutive games against winning National League Central opponents. The situational trends also point toward a Cincinnati rebound, as the Reds have won six consecutive night games following a home loss while covering the run line in seven straight such games against National League opponents. St. Louis, meanwhile, has failed to cover seven of its last eight games against National League Central opponents following a victory and has lost four of its last five against Cincinnati after a road win.

Since 2013, MLB road underdogs of greater than +115 are 133-212 (38.6%; -5.5% ROI) following a shutout win by three runs or less. Finally, the Reds fall into a very good 313-196 (61.5%; +3.6% ROI) system dating to 2003, which invests in .509 or worse home favorites versus .501 or greater league opponents with a better run differential. This situation has been 102-53 (65.8%; +10.3% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +1.1 runs per game. With Burns providing a major advantage over Liberatore and Cincinnati in a favorable bounce-back situation, take the Cincinnati Reds as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, August 19.