Oskeim Sports

THE PLAY: Total Over 181.5 (-110)

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The over is an attractive play on Wednesday as both teams enter the matchup playing some of their best offensive basketball of the season. Minnesota has won three straight while averaging more than 93 points per game during that stretch, fueled by Kayla McBride's scorching shooting and rookie Olivia Miles' emergence as a dynamic secondary scorer after her 33-point breakout against Phoenix. The Lynx have eclipsed 90 points in two of their last three games, showing they can score efficiently against quality competition. Minnesota ranks 2nd in the league in FG% (48.0), 1st in 3P% (37.9), and 2nd in points per game. Los Angeles has also found more offensive rhythm despite Kelsey Plum's absence, scoring 106 and 102 points in back-to-back victories before putting up 92 points in Monday's loss to Atlanta. With the Sparks undergoing organizational changes following the dismissal of general manager Raegan Pebley, expect them to continue playing an aggressive, up-tempo style as they fight to remain in the playoff race. Minnesota's explosive backcourt should create plenty of transition opportunities, while Los Angeles has enough offensive talent to contribute its share of points. From a technical standpoint, WNBA road teams that made 20 or more free throws in the previous meeting are 239-168-5 to the Over (58.7%), provided they didn’t go under by more than nine points. Moreover, teams that had 68 or more field goal attempts against their opponent in the previous meeting are 229-174-7 to the Over (56.8%), including 155-106-6 OVER (59.4%) since 2019, going over by an average margin of 2.0 points per game. With both clubs entering in good offensive form and neither defense playing at an elite level recently, this matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game that finishes over the posted total. Take the Over as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, July 15.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 188-135 | +82 Units
-> Torrid 60-40 (60%) Overall Run | +31 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI) '25-26: 114-80 (59%)
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 125-77 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles

THE PLAY: Total Under 171.5 (-110)

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The under is the preferred play on Tuesday as both teams are built around disciplined half-court execution rather than an up-tempo style. Washington has become one of the league's better defensive teams, using its length and athleticism to contest perimeter shots while forcing opponents into difficult late-clock possessions. The Mystics rank 4th in the league in both FG% (42.5) and 3P% (32.2), and 5th in points per game allowed (84.2). Toronto continues to lean heavily on Marina Mabrey for offensive production, and with Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice still sidelined, the Tempo lacks the secondary playmakers needed to consistently generate easy baskets. The Mystics have also done an excellent job controlling the glass, limiting second-chance opportunities, and keeping opponents from finding offensive rhythm. Indeed, Washington’s defense ranks 3rd in REB (31.5) and 2nd in DREB (22.9) per game. From a technical standpoint, WNBA teams with an average over/under margin of +5.5 or greater are 362-275-7 to the Under (56.8%) from Game 3 forward, including 197-141-4 UNDER (58.3%) since 2017. Since 2011, WNBA teams with an average halftime margin of fewer than three points are 244-185-10 to the Under (56.9%) versus opponents with fewer than three days of rest, provided one additional parameter is satisfied. Let’s also note that the Mystics are 115-78-1 to the Under (59.6%) following games in which they had eight or more offensive rebounds and are not underdogs by more than four points, including 19-9-1 UNDER (67.9%) since 2023. With both teams emphasizing defense and neither side possessing overwhelming offensive depth, long possessions should be the norm. Take the Under as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, July 14.

Results That Matter
-> #1 Capper in '26 (WP): 188-135 | +82 Units
-> Torrid 60-40 (60%) Overall Run | +31 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI) '25-26: 114-80 (59%)
-> 34 Football (NFL & NCAA) Awards Since 2007
-> NFL '21-'26: 102-72-3 (59%) | 5 Football Titles
-> Epic 125-77 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles