Oskeim Sports

THE PLAY: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-112)

The case for Kansas City starts with buying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at home for a relatively inexpensive price in a divisional game, where the market is essentially treating these teams as equals. Kansas City is coming off a disappointing 6-11 season, but its underlying profile was considerably better than that record suggests, particularly on defense, where the Chiefs allowed only 19.3 points per game and ranked sixth in scoring defense. The biggest problem was an offense that slipped to 21.3 points per game, but Kansas City made meaningful changes to address that exact weakness. Eric Bieniemy is back coordinating an offense that became too predictable last season, while Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III gives Mahomes the explosive running threat that was missing from a ground game that ranked only 25th in rushing offense. Walker rushed for 1,027 yards last season and forced 77 missed tackles during the regular season and playoffs, providing a major upgrade over a backfield that lacked big-play ability. Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton give Kansas City speed and explosiveness on the perimeter, while Travis Kelce remains Mahomes' most trusted possession target. Most importantly, Mahomes has been a full participant in practice after recovering from his knee injury, a major development considering how much Kansas City's offensive ceiling changes with him behind center. The offensive line does have a legitimate concern at left tackle with Josh Simmons sidelined, but Reid has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to scheme around protection problems, and Mahomes' quick processing gives Kansas City a chance to neutralize some of Denver's pass-rush advantage.

Denver deserves respect after going 14-3 and reaching the AFC Championship Game last season, but that performance also creates an elevated market perception that may be difficult to duplicate. The Broncos won 11 consecutive games at one point, yet their postseason run ended with only seven points in the AFC Championship Game after Bo Nix was injured, illustrating how quickly their offensive ceiling can fall when circumstances turn against them. Denver added Jaylen Waddle and should again possess one of the league's better defenses, but Kansas City still has the best quarterback in this matchup and now gets him back at Arrowhead in a primetime divisional opener. Kansas City's defense remains another major reason to lay the short number, as Steve Spagnuolo's unit ranked sixth in points allowed and added first-round defensive tackle Peter Woods and highly regarded rookie corner Mansoor Delane to a group that already features Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. The Chiefs' 2025 defense surrendered just 301.5 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, giving Kansas City a strong foundation while its revamped offense finds its footing.

The situational value is also appealing because Kansas City opened around -2.5 and remains available at that key number in parts of the market despite Denver receiving substantial betting support. Power-rating projections also support the favorite, with one current set of ratings making Kansas City roughly a five-point favorite rather than the -2.5 being offered. That creates value on a Chiefs team whose 2025 record obscures a defense that remained championship-caliber and an offense that has upgraded its backfield while getting Mahomes healthy again.

My technical database presents a consistent theme: the market has historically overvalued successful teams from the previous season when they return in Week 1 as road underdogs.

Technician’s Corner

• Kansas City is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in divisional games when neither team is favored by -5 or since November 2015;

• Week 1 home favorites are 71-44 ATS (61.7%) vs. opponents that finished above .500 the previous season. Kansas City qualifies as the home favorite against a Denver team coming off its 14-win season;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won 9+ games the previous season are just 44-71 ATS, meaning the play-against side has cashed 61.7% (71-44 ATS);

• The broader playoff version has also been profitable: Week 1 road underdogs coming off a playoff season are 25-44 ATS;

• Week 1 road underdogs that won more games than their opponent the previous season are 47-64 ATS, producing a 57.7% play-against rate. Denver's 14 wins, compared with Kansas City's 6, put the Broncos squarely in that fade situation.

With Mahomes back, Walker adding a badly needed explosive rushing dimension, Bieniemy reshaping the offense, and Kansas City playing at Arrowhead in a divisional opener, take the Chiefs as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Monday, September 14.

THE PLAY: UTSA +2.0 (-110)

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UTSA is the value side in this matchup because the Roadrunners enter 2026 with far more proven continuity in the areas that matter most, starting with quarterback Owen McCown and an offense that has been the program’s calling card under Jeff Traylor. McCown returns after an uneven 2025 season but demonstrated an extremely high ceiling, including a two-game stretch against Tulane and East Carolina in which he threw for 618 yards and nine touchdowns while producing a Total QBR above 95.0. UTSA also brings back explosive running back Will Henderson III, who averaged an exceptional 6.9 yards per carry last season, along with two of its top three receivers and three starting offensive linemen. Henderson immediately confirmed that big-play ability in the opener, breaking a 75-yard touchdown run as UTSA generated 525 yards in a 45-16 victory over UTRGV. McCown was exceptionally efficient in that game, completing 22 of 27 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns without an interception, giving UTSA exactly the kind of quarterback stability I want in what should be a competitive road environment. The Roadrunners are projected 73rd nationally in SP+ with 7.5 average wins, compared with Texas State at 88th and 5.8 projected wins, giving UTSA the stronger overall preseason profile. Jeff Traylor also provides a significant stability advantage in a matchup between programs that know one another well, and UTSA has been remarkably consistent under him despite stepping up in competition after leaving Conference USA. The Roadrunners' defense remains the primary concern because only eight of the 22 defenders who logged 200-plus snaps last season return, but Traylor aggressively addressed those losses through the portal with experienced additions at every level.

Texas State possesses a dangerous quarterback of its own in Brad Jackson, but there are legitimate reasons to believe UTSA is better positioned to win the overall matchup. Jackson was outstanding last season, throwing for 3,224 yards and rushing for another 890 while posting the fourth-best Total QBR among Group of Six quarterbacks, and his chemistry with Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. gives the Bobcats explosive-play capability. That explosiveness has hurt UTSA badly in this rivalry, including multiple long touchdown connections in Texas State's 43-36 victory last season, so limiting Jackson's vertical passing game is clearly the Roadrunners' defensive priority. However, Texas State lost significant personnel along both lines, and while G.J. Kinne attacked those weaknesses through the portal, the Bobcats still must prove those rebuilt units can perform cohesively against quality competition. That concern surfaced immediately against Texas, where Texas State was overwhelmed 59-7, and Jackson was held to 150 passing yards with no touchdowns and an interception. UTSA's offense presents a much more balanced challenge than the Bobcats faced in many of their favorable matchups last season because McCown can attack vertically while Henderson forces the defense to respect an explosive running game. The Roadrunners also have motivational value after losing two straight meetings in this rivalry following five consecutive victories to begin the series, including last year's seven-point loss in San Antonio.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database provides strong support for UTSA, with several profitable systems targeting small road underdogs, revenge situations, and opponents coming off ugly losses:

• 264-161 ATS (62.1%) - Underdogs of +6 or fewer seeking revenge for an upset loss from the previous season are 264-161 ATS since 1989. UTSA qualifies after losing outright as the favorite to Texas State last season;

• 36-17 ATS (67.9%) - The revenge angle becomes even stronger recently: non-conference underdogs seeking revenge for a loss from the previous season are 36-17 ATS since 2019, when the additional system parameters are satisfied;

• 196-139 ATS (58.5%) - Road teams facing an opponent coming off a loss by 46+ points have gone 196-139 ATS since 2001. Texas State enters this matchup after its 59-7 loss at Texas;

• 397-301 ATS (56.9%) - Home favorites coming off a game in which they scored fewer than 10 points are just 301-397 ATS since 2004, producing a profitable 56.9% Play Against situation;

• 124-92 ATS (57.4%) - Play Against Week 2 home teams coming off a loss by at least 17 points in which they scored 10 or fewer. That situation has produced a 124-92 ATS record for the opposition since 1999.

The database attacks Texas State from two angles: UTSA is in a profitable small-underdog revenge role, while the Bobcats fall into multiple negative systems after their 52-point loss to Texas. With the market essentially pricing this as a toss-up, I favor the team with the superior projected SP+ profile, greater offensive continuity, more proven head-coaching stability, and the better combination of quarterback and running-game experience. Take UTSA plus the point(s) as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

THE PLAY: Miami Dolphins +3.0 (-102)

This matchup features two rebuilding teams, but the market still asks Las Vegas to lay a full field goal even though the Dolphins can exploit several favorable matchups. Miami went 7-10 last season, four wins better than a 3-14 Las Vegas team with a disastrous -191-point differential. The Raiders finished last in offensive EPA, EPA per rush, and sack rate allowed, while their line ranked 32nd in yards before contact and adjusted line yards. Las Vegas responded with a new coaching staff and personnel changes, but major uncertainty remains under first-year head coach Klint Kubiak and veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Miami is also resetting under Jeff Hafley, yet Malik Willis presents a distinct challenge with his mobility and ability to create outside the play's structure. Willis generated 0.377 EPA per dropback in limited action last season, and his rushing threat should test a Raiders defense that must preserve gap integrity while containing De’Von Achane. After leading the NFL in yards per carry on runs of 10-plus yards last season, Achane remains Miami's most dangerous weapon and can flip field position with a single touch.

The matchup became even more favorable for Miami with Brock Bowers expected to miss the opener following a meniscus trim Tuesday in Dallas, taking the Raiders' most proven receiving weapon away from Cousins. Bowers has been dealing with knee issues since last season, when he played in twelve games (eight starts) before being placed on injured reserve for the last two weeks of the season. He totaled 64 catches for 680 yards and seven touchdowns and was named to his second straight Pro Bowl. The absence of Bowers becomes especially important because Las Vegas already entered the season with major questions at wide receiver, where Jack Bech, Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor comprise an underwhelming group. The Raiders also have uncertainty in the backfield, as Ashton Jeanty has been working his way back from an ankle injury suffered in August, further reducing the offensive advantages normally expected from a home favorite.

Miami's defense struggled last season, especially against the pass, but Hafley's defensive background and the organization's aggressive shift toward a younger roster offer reasons for optimism. The Dolphins upgraded at linebacker and in the secondary, with first-round corner Chris Johnson and rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez adding much-needed athleticism. Las Vegas should benefit from Tyler Linderbaum at center, yet major concerns remain about an offensive line that allowed pressure at an alarming rate last season.

Miami also holds a schematic edge: Willis' mobility and Achane's explosiveness can challenge a Raiders defense that struggled against the run in the preseason. Las Vegas cannot overcommit to stopping the run without becoming vulnerable to Willis' scrambles and designed movement. Both teams entered the season with similar expectations—Miami's win total was 4.5 versus 5.5 for Las Vegas—suggesting little talent gap on a neutral field. Miami also has the stronger recent baseline, having won seven games last year to Las Vegas' three, while both teams install new systems and start new quarterbacks.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Miami in the short-road-underdog role. The Dolphins fall into a 62.5% ATS look-ahead system, a 66.7% ATS Week 1 road-underdog system, and a 59.0% ATS Week 1 system, while Las Vegas falls into multiple negative favorite situations.

• 825-494 ATS (62.5%) - Play On underdogs vs. teams that are +5 or greater underdogs in their next game. Las Vegas is currently projected around +9.5 at the Chargers next week, putting Miami into an exceptionally strong 62.5% league-wide situation;

• 273-195 ATS (58.3%) - Play Against favorites in Games 1-4 that failed to make the playoffs the previous season. The Raiders went just 3-14 last season;

• 310-233 ATS (57.1%) - Play On road underdogs of less than +9 with totals from 40 to 42.5;

• 50-25 ATS (66.7%) - Week 1 road underdogs of less than +7 that won two or fewer road games the previous season have covered two-thirds of qualifying games. Miami won only two road games last season;

• 43-22 ATS (66.2%) - Play Against the Raiders when favored by -3 or more. Las Vegas has historically struggled badly in this exact favorite role, covering only 33.8% of qualifying games since 2003;

• 249-200 ATS (55.5%) - Play Against non-divisional home favorites of -4 or less during Weeks 1-9.

With Bowers expected to be out, Jeanty coming off an ankle injury, lingering concerns along the Raiders' offensive line, and Miami possessing the two most dynamic rushing threats on the field in Willis and Achane, grab the generous points with the Dolphins as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.

THE PLAY: Jacksonville State +2.5 (-105)

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Jacksonville State +2.5 offers value in a matchup where the Gamecocks have more offensive continuity and a higher ceiling than the market gives them credit for. Charles Kelly’s team has already experienced both ends of the spectrum this season, rebounding from a difficult 33-7 road loss at North Dakota State with a dominant 49-7 victory over Eastern Kentucky. Through two games, Jacksonville State is averaging 28.0 points and 6.05 yards per play while completing 66% of its passes, compared with an Ohio offense that produced only 21 points, 303 total yards and 4.66 yards per play in its opener. Sophomore quarterback Caden Creel provides important continuity after producing 1,514 passing yards and 1,190 rushing yards last season, giving Jacksonville State a legitimate dual-threat weapon capable of stressing Ohio horizontally and vertically. Creel also has an intriguing mismatch target in 6-foot-8 Deondre Johnson, who averaged an explosive 24.1 yards per reception last season, while the receiving corps was reinforced through the portal. The offensive line also retains five of last season’s top eight linemen, an important advantage against an Ohio roster undergoing substantial turnover. Jacksonville State entered 2026 with far greater continuity than Ohio, which changed head coaches again and returned offensive players who combined for only 11 starts last season. Ohio’s quarterback situation was particularly unsettled entering the year, and that lack of continuity showed immediately when the Bobcats completed just 43.8% of their passes in a 49-21 loss at Nebraska.

Ohio has yet to demonstrate that it deserves to lay points against a Jacksonville State program that has won nine games in each of its first three FBS seasons and captured two straight Conference USA championships. The Gamecocks finished 2025 with nine one-score games, winning five, so Kelly’s roster is accustomed to playing deep into competitive fourth quarters. Defensively, Jacksonville State retains proven disruption at multiple levels, with safety Caleb Nix and corner Tre’Quon Fegans combining for five interceptions and 10 pass breakups last season, while the staff aggressively supplemented the unit through the portal. Ohio has more continuity defensively, but its secondary lost four of five starters, creating an area Jacksonville State can attack with Creel’s mobility and Johnson’s size. The Bobcats also surrendered 49 points, 523 total yards, and 7.1 yards per play against Nebraska, including 248 rushing yards at 5.9 per attempt, suggesting this defense is not yet in position to consistently control an opponent with a mobile quarterback. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, just held Eastern Kentucky to seven points, giving the Gamecocks a confidence-building defensive performance before returning to the road.

Technician’s Corner

My technical database supports Jacksonville State in the short-underdog role, with several systems pointing to a game against Ohio following its 49-21 loss at Nebraska. Ohio is currently a 2.5-point home favorite, while Jacksonville State enters 1-1 after routing Eastern Kentucky 49-7.

• 197-115 ATS (63.1%) - Play Against qualifying home teams favored by 4.5 points or less coming off a road loss against a non-conference opponent. Ohio fits the core situation after losing at Nebraska and returning home as a small favorite against Conference USA member Jacksonville State;

• 805-622 ATS (56.4%) - Play On road teams against opponents favored by no more than four points when that opponent has a negative average first-half scoring margin and is coming off a game featuring 60+ combined points. Ohio's opener produced 70 points, and the Bobcats trailed Nebraska 28-21 at halftime;

• 653-517 ATS (55.8%) - Play Against qualifying home teams being outscored by an average of 7+ points per game after a contest producing 60+ combined points. Ohio enters with a -28-scoring margin after its 49-21 season-opening defeat

• 198-153 ATS (56.4%) - Non-conference underdogs of +4 or less playing with revenge have covered 56.4% of qualifying games since 2008

With the more established quarterback, greater offensive continuity, Ohio’s massive offseason transition, and a spread providing protection in what profiles as a close game, take the points with Jacksonville State as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, September 12.

THE PLAY: New York Jets +1.5 (-110)

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The case for New York starts with the fact that the Jets may be considerably better than their ugly 3-14 record from 2025 suggests, while Tennessee still has major structural problems to solve around Cam Ward. New York finished last season with an NFL-worst -203 point differential, but its defense experienced an almost unprecedented lack of turnover production, forcing just four takeaways and becoming the only NFL defense in modern history to go an entire season without an interception. That type of extreme turnover drought is highly unlikely to repeat, and the Jets aggressively addressed the problem by adding All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, veteran linebacker Demario Davis, defensive tackles David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat, plus No. 2 overall pick David Bailey, who recorded 14.5 sacks in his final college season. Bailey is especially important because New York finished 31st in sacks last season, and his explosive first step gives Aaron Glenn the type of edge presence his defense lacked. The offense should also have a much higher floor with Geno Smith replacing the failed Justin Fields experiment and veteran coordinator Frank Reich taking over the play-calling. Smith does not need to be a star in this matchup; he simply needs to distribute the football efficiently to Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, first-round tight end Kenyon Sadiq, and rookie receiver Omar Cooper Jr. without putting the defense in bad positions. Smith as a stabilizing bridge and Reich as a steadier offensive hand, which is important after New York ranked 31st in EPA per pass last season. The Jets also strengthened an offensive line that PFF ranks substantially ahead of Tennessee's entering 2026, giving Smith a better chance to operate comfortably and allowing New York to lean on Hall and Braelon Allen against a Titans defense still undergoing a major transition.

Tennessee, meanwhile, was not merely unlucky in 2025—it was consistently overwhelmed, particularly early in games. The Titans posted an average scoring margin of -11.4 points per game, ranked 29th in first-half point differential at -106, and were -179 through three quarters, 30th in the NFL. Those numbers are particularly concerning against a Jets team that should be able to generate pressure and play from more favorable down-and-distance situations than it did last year. Ward finished his rookie season 31st in passer rating, 31st in completion percentage, 33rd in yards per attempt, and was sacked a league-high 55 times; the underlying problems included inaccurate throws, sacks, fumbles, drifting in the pocket, and a tendency to resort to hero ball when protection broke down. Tennessee attempted to protect Ward last year by investing heavily in the offensive line, but the unit still surrendered 56 sacks, the sixth-most in the league, and enters 2026 ranked near the bottom of PFF's offensive-line rankings. Brian Daboll should eventually improve the structure around Ward, and Robert Saleh should make the defense more respectable, but expecting all of those changes to immediately erase a massive talent and execution deficit is asking a lot. Tennessee was also one of the league's most undisciplined teams, accumulating 130 accepted penalties, ranking second in penalty frequency and posting the NFL's third-worst penalty margin, another major concern for a young team trying to operate efficiently. New York, by contrast, spent the offseason adding veteran stability, improving the offensive line, upgrading its pass rush and attacking the exact turnover weakness that made its 2025 defense look worse than it probably was. The Jets do not need Geno Smith to carry them here; a controlled offense built around Hall, complemented by a rejuvenated defense capable of pressuring Ward, provides a very favorable matchup against a Tennessee team that still has substantial weaknesses up front.

With New York possessing the stronger offensive line, a deeper collection of proven skill talent, significant defensive regression potential, and a favorable matchup against a quarterback who struggled badly under pressure, grab the point(s) with the Jets as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Sunday, September 13.