The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Edmonton Oilers -135

Rotation #16: NHL Sunday ML: Edmonton -135. The Edmonton Oilers are poised to knot this 2025 NHL playoff series at 2-2 against the Los Angeles Kings in Game 4, riding their home-ice edge, superstar firepower, and a hunger to avoid a 3-1 hole. Here’s the GoldSheet’s breakdown of why the Oilers get the money in this crucial tilt at Rogers Place:

Home Cooking Fuels the Fire: Edmonton’s 25-13-3 home mark this season isn’t just a stat—it’s a vibe. The Rogers Place faithful, as loud as any in the NHL, have the Oilers’ backs after a 7-4 Game 3 rout. Coach Kris Knoblauch’s squad feeds off this energy, and with momentum from that blowout, the Oilers are primed to deliver another statement. Home teams in this series have cashed in 60% of the time over the last three years, and Edmonton’s ready to keep that trend alive.

McDavid and Draisaitl: The Kings’ Nightmare: You don’t need a stat sheet to know Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are money against LA. McDavid’s 36 points in 18 playoff games vs. the Kings (including a four-point Game 1) and Draisaitl’s 17 goals and 30 points in the same span are straight-up dominant. Game 3 saw McDavid (1G, 2A) and Draisaitl (2G) torch LA again. At home, where they’ve combined for 15 points in the last three playoff games vs. the Kings, this duo is a lock to feast.

Power Play Ready to Cash: Edmonton’s power play, despite an 0-for-5 hiccup in Games 1-2, is a proven Kings-killer, clicking at a gaudy 44.4% (24-for-54) over their last three playoff series. They broke through in Game 3, and with LA’s penalty kill leaking oil (5-for-10 in the series), the Oilers’ man-advantage unit—led by McDavid, Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard—is set to exploit. Look for at least one PP goal to swing this game.

Depth Stepping Up: The Oilers aren’t just a two-man show. Evander Kane’s return in Game 2 adds grit, while Viktor Arvidsson’s Game 2 snipe and Connor Brown’s hot stick (6 goals in 10 games) give Edmonton secondary scoring pop. Game 3’s hero, Evan Bouchard (2G, including the GWG), shows their blue line can chip in too. This depth overwhelmed LA last game, and with the Kings’ road offense down 27% from home, Edmonton’s supporting cast should shine again.

Goaltending: Skinner’s Bounce-Back or Pickard’s Spot: Stuart Skinner’s Game 2 wobble (5 GA on 28 shots) raised eyebrows, but his 2.81 GAA in past series vs. LA says he can steady the ship. If not, Calvin Pickard’s a capable backup. Meanwhile, LA’s Darcy Kuemper (2.02 GAA, .922 SV% in the regular season) got lit up for four in Game 3, exposing cracks against Edmonton’s relentless attack. The Oilers’ shot volume (38.5 per game at home vs. LA) tilts this matchup their way.

Locking Down and Digging Deep: After getting outworked in LA, the Oilers flipped the script in Game 3, tightening their D and pouncing on Kings’ miscues. Despite missing Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Bouchard held the fort. Facing a must-win to avoid a 3-1 deficit, Edmonton’s desperation is palpable—historically, they’ve answered the bell, tying series after Game 1 losses in 2022 and 2023. That resilience, plus LA’s road struggles, sets the stage for a W.

The Kings’ Case Doesn’t Hold Up: Sure, LA’s got a 2-1 series edge and a pesky road game (16-18-7). Their power play’s humming (5-for-10), and Adrian Kempe (7 points in two games) and Anze Kopitar (4 in Game 2) can strike. But the Kings’ 203 goals allowed this season show they’re not invincible, and Edmonton’s 3.5 goals per game at home vs. LA exposes their soft underbelly. The Oilers’ speed and depth should overwhelm LA’s defensive shell.

GOLDSHEET’S BOTTOM LINE: Edmonton’s high-octane attack, led by McDavid and Draisaitl, plus the Rogers Place roar, makes them a strong play to take Game 4. We’re projecting a 4-2 final, with the Oilers’ power play and depth scoring the difference. Lay the price with Edmonton.