The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Total Over 51.0 (-110)

The big news in this one is the injury to Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who injured his collarbone against Arizona last week. Tyson finished the regular season with 75 catches for 1,101 yards and ten receiving touchdowns. His absence will certainly be felt, but we're still looking toward the over in this contest. Four of Arizona State's last five games have gone over the total. When you take a team like Iowa State, who has been playing in cold temperatures for the last six weeks, and put them on the fast turf at AT&T Stadium: They look a lot faster. Since the beginning of November, Iowa State's games have been played in Iowa (3x), Kansas and Utah. Three of those games were played at night. The gametime temperature in Iowa State's win over Kansas State was 24-degrees last week. Watch what happens when you put a group like that on the fast turf in a dome. Since the Big XII began playing the conference championship game at AT&T Stadium in 2017, these games have seen an average of 55.9 points per game. Five of the seven contests would have gone over this number in the low-50s. Arizona State's offense is top-20 in EPA per play, EPA per pass attempt, EPA per rush attempt, success rate, rushing success rate, early-down success rate and third down success rate. In a controlled dome environment, look for Iowa State QB Rocco Becht to look like the player from the beginning of the season, and not one that was playing in 18 mile per hour winds in November.