The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Navy +6.5 (-110)

Just pick the winner! It's that simple, right?! The point spread has not played a factor in any of the last nine meetings, as either the favorite has won-and-covered or the underdog pulled the outright upset. Navy has out-gained Army in four of the last five meetings. There's no program in the country better-equipped to handle a chaotic schedule than Army, but you certainly have to wonder what's left in the tank. Army is coming off a 35-14 win over Tulane in the AAC Championship Game, which was the Knights' first conference championship in program history. Offensive line coach Matt Drinkall has reportedly accepted the head coaching position at Central Michigan, and head coach Jeff Monken is reportedly on the interview circuit as well. Navy won this game as a 21-point underdog in 2015 and as a 7.5-point underdog in 2021. Midshipmen starting QB Blake Horvath has been battling some injuries, but back-up Braxton Woodson scored three touchdowns in the win over East Carolina two weeks ago. This point spread briefly hit Army -7 on Monday afternoon, but it did not last long before bettors knocked it back down to -6.5. Army has been the better program this year, but this is a big number to lay in this spot. Navy closed as a seven-point home underdog to Tulane four weeks ago. Army closed as a five-point home 'dog to Tulane last week. Just using that as a data point suggests that these two teams should only be separated by a couple points. Getting 6.5 with the team whose lone focus has been on this game for the last two weeks feels like a generous gift.