The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Texas +3.0 (-110)

Should a team with 15 losses be in the NCAA Tournament after playing a bottom-15 non-conference schedule? Probably not, but the Longhorns are here, and this is a good matchup for Texas to advance. Through absolutely no fault of their own, the Musketeers' schedule doesn't exactly hold up very well under the microscope either. Xavier also played a non-conference schedule that ranks outside the top-200. Non-conference games against South Carolina, Wake Forest, TCU and Cincinnati all lost shine because none of those four teams accomplished anything this season. Xavier's Big East schedule was very front-loaded and the Musketeers had an easy path to rack up wins at the end of the season. Xavier's last four road games were at Villanova, at Providence, at Seton Hall and at Butler. Those four teams combined to go 25-55 in conference play. Xavier only played one NCAA Tournament team (Creighton at home) in its last nine regular season games. The Musketeers drew an ideal opponent in the opening round of the Big East Tournament (Marquette, who went 4-6 down the stretch and was struggling mightily), and they lost that contest. So for every knock on Texas, it's not hard to find some for Xavier. Xavier only has three wins over teams in the NCAA Tournament: Marquette, UConn and Creighton. Texas has seven. The Musketeers enjoyed a +5.5-percent advantage from the three-point line in Big East play as Xavier shot 38.0-percent from beyond the arc, compared to 32.5-percent from its conference opponents. Some of that is skill and coaching and should be applauded, but that is also a red flag for regression. And when those outside shots are not falling, Xavier is No. 317 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. We would not be comfortable laying three points with the Musketeers in this matchup.