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NFL: 35-22 (61.4%) on Totals Over the Last Two Seasons

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Free Picks

Sport

Game Selection

Game Time

NFL

(473) Washington Commanders at (474) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns

4:25pm EDT - Sep 8/2024

THE PLAY: Baker Mayfield Passing Touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-140)

Baker Mayfield (TB) Over 1.5 TD Passes vs Washington (-140)

We like the over in this contest, and with an assist from Andy Lang, found an ideal prop bet to complement it. Last season, 13 of 17 quarterbacks cleared this total against the Commanders' defense, so blindly playing this last year would have resulted in a 13-4 record. The last six quarterbacks that Washington faced on the road last season all cleared this mark. Mayfield cashed this prop in 12 of his 19 games last season, and the most important thing is that his receiving corps is healthy heading into the start of this season. The Bucs only rushed for eight total touchdowns last season while throwing for 28. Both offenses would probably be wise to use some tempo against opposing defenses that are introducing some new pieces. During his time in Arizona, new Commanders' offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury ran the fastest offense in the league in both situation-neutral pace and no-huddle rate. This game should be played at a brisk tempo, which should give Mayfield some good opportunities to hit this mark.

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Last 20

Date

Sport

Pick

Result

Sep 07

CFB

4% – (383) Houston at (384) Oklahoma Total Under 49.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Sep 07

CFB

3% – (331) South Carolina at (332) Kentucky Total Over 42.0 (-112)
(Analysis)

Loss

Sep 07

CFB

4% – South Alabama -2.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Sep 01

CFB

3% – USC +6.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 31

CFB

3% – (185) Miami Florida at (186) Florida Total Over 54.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 31

CFB

3% – (167) Old Dominion at (168) South Carolina Total Under 54.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 31

CFB

3% – Syracuse -17.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 31

CFB

3% – UTSA -24.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 30

CFB

1% – Oklahoma -42.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 30

MLB

2% – (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Philadelphia Phillies Total Over 8.0 (-108) R Lopez (RHP), R Suarez (LHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 29

MLB

2% – Colorado Rockies -120 V Bellozo (LHP), B Blalock (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 28

MLB

2% – Atlanta Braves -125 C Sale (LHP), D Festa (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 26

MLB

2% – (971) Atlanta Braves at (972) Minnesota Twins 1H Total Over 4.0 (-110) M Fried (LHP), B Ober (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 24

CFB

2% – (307) SMU at (308) Nevada Total Over 55.5 (-110)
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 23

MLB

1.5% – (919) Arizona Diamondbacks at (920) Boston Red Sox Arizona Diamondbacks Total Over 4.5 (-120) Action
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 22

MLB

1.5% – (955) Cincinnati Reds at (956) Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds Total Over 3.5 (+100) Action
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 22

MLB

2% – (953) Milwaukee Brewers at (954) St. Louis Cardinals Total Over 7.5 (-120) F Peralta (RHP), M Mikolas (RHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Loss

Aug 21

MLB

2% – (911) Cleveland Guardians at (912) New York Yankees Total Over 8.5 (-120) J Cantillo (LHP), N Cortes (LHP) Must Start
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 20

MLB

2% – Cleveland Guardians +132 Action
(Analysis)

Win

Aug 17

NFL

2% – Miami Dolphins -5.0 (-110)
(Analysis)

Win

Consultant Bio

Founded in 1957, GoldSheet is the country's longest-running sports betting newsletter. In May 2019, WagerTalk Media announced its intent to acquire GoldSheet in a deal to bring the iconic publication into the digital age. Bettors and oddsmakers have respected GoldSheet's LTS Plays (Late Telephone Service) for decades, and the GoldSheet team has brought that winning strategy to WagerTalk over the last four years:

2021 College Football Season: +85.5% Profit behind a 45-21-3 Record (No. 1 at WagerTalk)
2021-22 NFL Season: +10.3% Profit behind a 33-28-1 Record
2021-22 College Basketball Season: +33.1% Profit behind a 53.6% Win Rate
2021-22 NBA Season: +52% Profit behind a 54.7% Win Rate
2022-23 NFL Season: +55.9% Profit behind a 49-28-3 Record (No. 1 at WagerTalk)

To help you prepare for the 2024-25 college football season, the GoldSheet team has collaborated with Ralph Michaels on a 60-page preseason guide. Check out some of our team previews:

1) Georgia
2) Ohio State
3) Oregon
4) Alabama
5) Texas
6) Penn State
7) Michigan
8) Ole Miss
9) Notre Dame
10) LSU