The Gold Sheet

THE PLAY: Louisville -6.5 (-120)

Has this SMU team REALLY improved THAT much after a disappointing season opener at Nevada (only won 29-24) and a home loss (18-15) to BYU? Sure, the Pony Express has come back to put up 108 total points in the last two games and just beat Florida State pretty convincingly, by 26 points. The Mustangs ran wild in their ACC debut in front of a sellout crowd with 467 yards of total offense. QB Jennings posted a career-best 254 yards while RB Smith had a season-high 129 on the ground. But it was only a 14-9 game at half vs FSU and it was an 82-yard INT return (one of three Seminoles’ turnovers) that put the game away. SMU now has five non-offensive TDs on the season, the most in the entire FBS. Can they count on such good fortune on the road? Louisville suffered its first loss last week, but performed up to the oddsmakers expectations, losing by only seven in South Bend. And that was with three turnovers and going 1-for-5 on fourth down. All of the turnovers led to Notre Dame getting points, including a four-yard TD drive. Louisville actually out-gained the Irish, 395-280. Prior to the loss, the Cardinals had not turned the ball over once in the first three games.

THE PLAY: 1H Green Bay Packers -1.5 (-110)

We're not going to put a lot of stock into Green Bay's loss to Minnesota last week. Jordan Love returned after a two-week absence, and the Packers had to drastically change their offensive approach over the last couple weeks. When Green Bay hosted Indianapolis three weeks ago, back-up QB Malik Willis attempted 14 passes and the Packers ran the ball 53 times. Last week against the Vikings, Love attempted 54 passes and the Packers ran the ball 19 times. Matt LaFleur has had to change things up on-the-fly through the first month of the season, and Green Bay should feel relatively good about being 2-2 right now. The Rams have been slow starters this season, going 0-4 against the spread in first halves. That is certainly going to be the key in this one. Green Bay dug a 28-0 in the first half against the Vikings last week, so you can count on Coach LaFleur to dial up something for the early portion of this game to make sure that does not happen again. The Packers have injury concerns, but we're not sure Los Angeles is the team to take advantage of them right now. With Love getting the chance to shake off the injury rust and a normal week of practice, we expect Green Bay to handle business in what may be a road-friendly environment in Los Angeles.