Nick Borrman

THE PLAY: FC Cincinnati -0.75 (-105)

MLS

(209933) Colorado Rapids at (209934) FC Cincinnati

One of my favorite things to do early in the season is to find the anomalies and bet against them.  In this match, that’s fading Colorado and it’s not because I think they are a poor team by any means as they look much improved from last season.  However, they have been fortunate in terms of where their goals have come from, and you can easily argue three or four of their results could be different.

Colorado has been handed four PKs already this season, scoring three of them, plus they have forced two additional own goals.  Compare that to Cincinnati who has been awarded only one PK this season, they didn’t score it, and no own goals.  Take away those fortunate goals and it becomes easy to question where will the Rapids goals come from?

Remember, Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the league allowing only 0.89 xGA per 90 minutes which drops to a paltry 0.50 at home.

After losing back-to-back matches vs NYRB and at Montreal, Cincinnati rebounded with a win beating a very good Atlanta squad 2-1 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium which is a very difficult thing to do.

After a slow start to the season for reigning MVP, Luciano Acosta, in which he had no goals and two assists in his first six matches including Champions Cup, Lucho has since added four goals and four assists over his last seven matches including contributing on both goals in their 2-1 win over Atlanta last weekend.  

With a question mark of where Colorado’s goals come from along with Acosta surging into form, this looks like a straightforward home win for Cincinnati, the same team who hauled the most points at home last season.

TAKE CINCINNATI -0.75

Line Parameter: Play good to -125, reduce risk to -140