Nick Borrman
Event: Atlanta United at New England Revolution
Sport/League: MLS
Date/Time: October 1, 2022 1:30 PM EDT
Play: Atlanta United +0.25 (-125)
MLS
There are two regular season games remaining, but this is essentially a playoff game. If New England loses this match, they will be eliminated and if Atlanta loses, they most likely will be eliminated unless both Columbus and Miami fail to win which will leave them still with an outside chance.
New England comes in on the heels of three straight losses and just one win in their last eight games. Over their first 24 matches of the season, they averaged 1.36 xG per match while allowing 1.43 xGA, however, over their last eight matches, those numbers have gotten very ugly, averaging 1.15 xG while allowing a whopping 2.10 xGA. A change of differential from -0.07 to -0.95.
Atlanta has been better on both sides of the ball this season including ranking #4 in shots allowed on goal at just 3.8. Offensively though is where they have shined as they average both the most shots and shots on goal per game in the entire league at 15.9 and 5.6, respectively. That leads to the 5th highest xG, averaging 1.71.
If you know me by now, you know I don’t ever trust a bad defense to lay goals and that is what we are looking at here. New England ranks near the bottom of the league and is favored against one of the most dynamic offenses. Add in the fact that the Revolution are in bad form while Atlanta is winning, it only makes sense to take the oddsmakers bait and grab the head start.
TAKE ATLANTA +0.25
Released September 28, 2022 11:46 PM EDT
Last Update September 28, 2022 11:54 PM EDT
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