Dwayne Bryant

• 5% MAX UNDERS (All Sports): 64-39-7 (62%) Last 110
• 38-21-4 (64% Winners) on last 63 5% MLB Totals MAX Bets
• 34-16-4 (68% Winners) on last 54 5% MLB Totals MAX Under Bets
• 29-18-1 (62%) on last 48 NBA plays
• +104.1% Bankroll Increase on MLB Totals since 2017
• +187.89% Totals Plays Profit, Lifetime at WagerTalk
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• Last updated Sep 20 5:41 AM EDT

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• SportGame SelectionGame Time

  NFL(271) Buffalo Bills at (272) Miami Dolphins1:00pm EDT - Sep 20/2020
  THE PLAY: Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-110)

  BET SIZE --> 1% of bankroll

   

  Not a huge fan of laying points on the NFL road, especially in division games.  But Buffalo looks solid in this spot.

   

  One thing I like to do first when capping the next NFL week is to look at last week's box scores to find what I refer to as "misleading scoreboards."  Said another way, games in which the final score doesn't accurately reflect how the game actually played out.

   

  In this case, Buffalo's 10-point home win over the Jets was actually a much more lopsided game than the 27-17 final score would lead you to believe.  The Bills won the yardage battle by 150 yards, the first-down battle 31-15, and dominated time of possession 41:16 to 18:44.  Buffalo also lost two fumbles in scoring range, including one in the red zone.  The Bills were up 21-3 at halftime, and the Jets scored a TD in the game's final minute to make it look closer than it actually was.  

   

  Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 3-1 SU and ATS as a road favorite, including a 37-20 win as a 7-point road favorite at Miami last November.  Miami head coach Brian Flores is 1-4 SU and ATS as a conference home dog, including 0-4 SU and ATS if they're a dog by more than a field goal.

   PLAY BUFFALO. 

  Follow Dwayne on Twitter @WagerTalkDwayne.

Dwayne Bryant

• Host of the DB's FREEBIE$ sports betting podcast
• Sports betting consultant since 2000
• Low-volume bettor
• No GOW/GOM/GOY marketing hype
• Produced an UNMATCHED 20-game football win streak
  
• Follow Dwayne on Twitter @WagerTalkDwayne