Ralph Michaels

THE PLAY: Arizona -30.0 (-110)

THE CFB EARLY BIRD IS ONLY $499  • NFL/CFB COMBO ONLY $777  • DON'T MISS ANY EARLY RELEASES!!
 

Saturday August 31st

#182 3% Arizona -30 New Mexico

The Wildcats are in a unique situation as they lost their coach yet every starter post bowl that said they were returning did. They have 4 starters including their best 3 players all played together in high school and they kept the unit together. Arizona went from 1-11, to 5-7 to 10-3 LY with the 3 losses by 2, 7 and 7 points as a 21, 20 and 9 pt dog. Arizona was #17 in yards per play diff and they return 15 starters and are #28 in returning production. Fifta and McMillian may be the conference's best QB/WR duo. Wildcats were a fav of -14+ twice LY and they covered both by 10 PPG. New OC Babers likes to play as fast as anyone, and he was #12 & #7 in plays per game his first two years are BG and #7 and #1 his first two years at Syracuse. This is the national Saturday Night Espn game and they have Northern Arizona at home on deck.
New Mexico is #124 in returning production with only 9 returning starters as three offensive starters being 2 WR’s and a TE that does not bode well for a rush attack to try and shorten the game. New HC Mendenhall has his work cut out for him. While a new coach certainly may treat this huge lined games differently the Lobos have gone 0-8 ATS as a dog of +24 and higher.
 

How have big favorite done week #1 (-24 and higher)? 
Since 2014 they are 52.9% ATS but...
Versus VCS foes they are 112-107-5 (51.1%) 

Versus FBS teams they are 56-40 (58.3%) and 42-21-2 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite of -28 and higher. 

THE PLAY: OVER 10.5 (-110) Georgia Regular Season Wins

Georgia Regular Season Wins 2024

2% OVER 10.5 (-110) Georgia Regular Season Wins (posted June 19th)
Georgia comes into this season with 39 STRAIGHT regular season wins. The Bulldogs were #3 in yards per play diff (+2.49). Georgia returns 13 starters which is as many as any from the L4Y (11-13-10-13). A veteran OL with 4 starters who have made 70 career starts and a senior QB who threw for 3,941 yards and is the Heisman favorite (odds-wise). Add that to a coaching staff that reruns its HC, OC and DC. Georgia is #29 in retuning production and had the #1 recruiting class. 

My numbers project the Bulldogs to be a favorite in every game and a favorite of 16+ in 9 of those games. In the three games as a single-digit favorite they play #1) Bama with revenge (have gone 12-1 ATS in that role) and they play that team with a new QB and #98 in retuning production early in the season. #2) Prior to Texas they host Miss St as a 5 TD favorite while the Longhorns play the Red River Rivalry. #3) They face Ole Miss after a bye week and Florida while REberls play Oklahoma and a road game at Arkansas.