Free China CBA Predictions for JAN 27

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These long-term numbers say it all:

#4 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2025 (+49 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2024 (+180 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2022 (+125 units) Tokyo Brandon 
#1 WagerTalk ALL-SPORTS profit 2021 (+225 units) Tokyo Brandon 

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Team comparison

Full season + recent form (points)

Leaders + injuries

Player vs player matchups (small evaluations)

• Eugene German (BJS) vs Benson Lin / Javion Hamlet (TIA): German is Beijing’s primary table-setter + top scorer, but Tianjin’s guard duo is higher-usage and can push tempo; biggest swing is whether Beijing can force Tianjin into half-court possessions and limit early-clock 3s/transition.

• Victor Bailey Jr. (BJS) vs Scottie James (TIA): Bailey is Beijing’s secondary scorer; James is Tianjin’s best all-around impact (elite rebounding for a wing). If James controls the glass, Tianjin can manufacture extra possessions to offset efficiency gaps.

• Beijing frontcourt (Di/Mathiang rotation snapshot) vs Tianjin bigs (James + Lai/Reynolds mix): Beijing’s defense profile (season PA 82.6) suggests they win by controlling paint and fouling less; Tianjin’s season PA 94.4 suggests they can be targeted in screening action and defensive rebounding.

Last 10 games (computed from RealGM schedules)

• Beijing last 10: 7–3, 86.5 PF / 83.8 PA (lower-scoring profile; defense steady)

• Tianjin last 10: 5–5, 97.1 PF / 95.4 PA (higher-scoring, higher-variance; defense leaky)

My score projection

• Tianjin 91 – Beijing 89 (Total 180)

  • This lands slightly over 178.5, but the edge is thin because Beijing’s defensive baseline is strong while Tianjin’s home scoring is the main “over” driver.

  • On the spread (Beijing -8.5 assumed): my projection is much tighter than -8.5, so Tianjin +8.5 grades as the better value side if the book has Beijing favored by that much.

Why the model pulls toward a close game:

• Beijing’s season defense (82.6 PA) + last-10 defense keeps totals down, but Beijing’s recent offense (81.8 last-5 PF) is also depressed.

• Tianjin’s home last-5 offense (102.8 PF) is a strong counterweight, but their defense (season 94.4 PA) inflates opponents.

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago