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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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1.5% MIA ML (-110)
Good to -120
FD
Backing Alcantara at home today where he has been outstanding. We like this coming off his only blip so far which was on the road. Brewers offense has been struggling vs RHP as well.
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The Prez
Major League Baseball
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F5 UNDER 3.5 DETROIT vs BOSTON
It's Skubal Day. Weather conditions in Boston are ideal for an ace like this, as Boston isn't exactly crushing the ball right now to begin with. I have issues with the Detroit Bullpen, but I believe the Red Sox lineup will be hard-pressed to score runs against Skubal. Bello isn't great, but in these conditions, it favors pitchers, and Detroit is also having issues scoring consistently. Look for a low-scoring game in the First Five innings here.
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Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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973 Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh
Two of our favorite pitchers in baseball do battle today in our favorite stadium PNC Park. We all know about the dominance of Paul Skenes, but Drew Rasmussen is also an elite talent when healthy. And he’s been just that in 2026.
With runs hard to come by we want to take advantage of the familiar name of Paul Skenes. When he takes the mound you are always paying a premium, but the Pirates rarely hit for him. Let’s expect a low scoring game with these two starters on the mound.
PLAY TAMPA BAY +1/2 1H
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Tokyo Brandon
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For this to lose Sale has to give up a run to this slumping offense that he dominates while Sanchez has to hold the #1 scoring offense in MLB to 0 in 5 innings. Not likely.
ATL at PHI — April 18, 2026
This projects as a tight, low-scoring game with a slight Atlanta edge. The visible market is near pick’em, with books clustering around ATL -105 / PHI -115 and a full-game total of 7.5. ESPN lists the matchup predictor essentially even at PHI 50.7% / ATL 49.3%, with game-time weather around 68°F at Citizens Bank Park.
The current form split favors Atlanta. The Braves are 12-7, have not yet lost a series this season, and have scored 62 runs in their last 10 games. Philadelphia is 8-10, has lost six of its last eight, and has scored 37 runs in its last 10 games. Reuters also noted the Phillies had just lost three straight series entering this weekend set.
The starter matchup is excellent on both sides. Chris Sale enters 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 22.0 innings. Cristopher Sánchez enters 2-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 22.1 innings. The supplied head-to-head samples are also strong for both pitchers: Sale owns a 3.27 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 22.0 innings versus Philadelphia since 2024, while Sánchez has a 2.96 ERA with 29 strikeouts in 24.1 innings versus Atlanta since 2024.
The matchup-specific offensive split is the biggest separator. Atlanta has mashed left-handed pitching this season, posting an .807 OPS vs lefties. Philadelphia has struggled badly against left-handed pitching, with StatMuse showing a batting average of .178 against lefties this season. That is a major plus for Sale and a modest drag on Sánchez because the Braves lineup is better built to handle same-side pitching than the Phillies lineup is.
Atlanta has in better rhythm and with stronger recent run prevention; The Braves have MLB’s best team ERA on the season at 2.93, while the Phillies are at 4.92.
ATL 4.1
PHI 3.3
Projected score
Segment | ATL | PHI | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3.5 |
Full game | 4.1 | 3.3 | 7.4 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale (ATL) | 6 0/3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | 5 2/3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore — ATL
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Austin Riley | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Olson | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Marcell Ozuna | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ozzie Albies | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sean Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Dominic Smith | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Michael Harris II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Orlando Arcia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Projected hitter boxscore — PHI
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trea Turner | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryce Harper | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Alec Bohm | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Kyle Schwarber | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
J.T. Realmuto | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nick Castellanos | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Otto Kemp | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Brandon Marsh | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Bryson Stott | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Wager & Probability Analysis chart (Model-Driven)
Market | Model projection | Win / hit % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus minus fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL moneyline | ATL 4.1-3.3 | 54.8% | ATL -121 | ATL -105 | +16 cents | Value ATL |
PHI moneyline | PHI 3.3-4.1 | 45.2% | PHI +121 | PHI -115 | much worse | No value |
Full game Over 7.5 | 7.4 | 48.8% | +105 | -110 | negative | No value |
Full game Under 7.5 | 7.4 | 51.2% | -105 | -110 | +5 cents | Slight value |
1st 5 Over 4.0* | 3.5 | 41.5% | +141 | -110* | negative | No value |
1st 5 Under 4.0* | 3.5 | 58.5% | -141 | -110* | +31 cents | Value |
ATL 1st 5 moneyline* | ATL 2.0-1.5 | 54.0% | ATL -117 | -105* | +12 cents | Slight value |
PHI 1st 5 moneyline* | PHI 1.5-2.0 | 46.0% | PHI +117 | -115* | negative | No value |
ATL 1st 5 team total Over 1.5* | 2.0 | 54.5% | -120 | -105* | +15 cents | Slight value |
PHI 1st 5 team total Under 1.5* | 1.5 | 55.5% | -125 | -110* | +15 cents | Slight value |
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | OPS | Rank (1-30) |
|---|---|---|
ATL | .807 | 4 |
PHI | .640 | 24 |
30-scale matchup ranks
Category | ATL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
Today’s starting pitcher — ERA+WHIP composite rank | 11/30 | 7/30 |
Bullpen last 10 days — ERA and WHIP composite rank | 13/30 | 22/30 |
Lineup run production last 10 days — runs + wOBA/OPS proxy rank | 5/30 | 23/30 |
Sánchez ranks a bit ahead of Sale on current ERA, but Atlanta’s bullpen trend and recent offense both grade materially better. The Braves’ 62 runs in their last 10 versus Philadelphia’s 37 is the clearest recent-form gap in the matchup.
Final call
Projected 1st 5: ATL 2.0, PHI 1.5
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Tigers Red Sox Feature Bet | 3x WagerTalk #1 Profit King + 10 Year MLB Scout: $15.00
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi projects to give up just 2.2 runs with a 3.14 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Seattle’s lineup has hit just .194 (21-108) with a weak .592 OPS against Eovaldi in his career. The Mariners will start George Kirby. The righty projects to give up 2.0 earned runs with a 2.95 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Saturday night.
Play UNDER the total.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Free Pick Recap: 3-1 (+2.93 units)
Thursday- Rockies (+146) WINNER
Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
Wednesday- Cubs (+122) WINNER
Tuesday- Backs (+135) WINNER
Analysis on today's MLB Betting Show:
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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The back to back AL Cy Young Award winner is living up to expectations once again, as Tarik Skubal has allowed 1 earned run or none in 3 of his first 4 starts. As you might imagine, his analytics are top notch, and the Tigers are hot as a team as well, having won 6 straight games entering their Friday opener at Fenway. The Red Sox have just not been able to put things together thus far, and Brayan Bello enters with a wOBA of .388 and ranks in the 13th percentile in pithing run value overall. Take the Tigers -1
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!
