Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For May 15
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Ralph Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(907) Texas Rangers at (908) Houston Astros: Total
First Inning Under +.5 (-115) Jack Leiter (RHP), Spencer Arrighetti (RHP) Must Start
Texas has scored a first-inning run only once in its last 7 games
Houston has also failed to score a first-inning run in 7 straight
Leiter is 5-3 NRFI, but he has tossed 3 straight NRFI
Arrighetti has a 1.88 ERA, and he is 4-1 NRFI with 3 straight NRFI
Released/revised 20 minute(s) ago
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THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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First-Inning Report for Friday, May 15The WagerTalk First Inning Report from Ralph Michaels is your daily cheat sheet for YRFI/NRFI betting. Full game lines and totals with teams that scored in the first inning (and who gave one up) Current streaks (3+ straight 1st inning results highlighted) Starting pitchers listed — Lefty indicators included ...
THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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First-Inning Report for Monday, May 4The WagerTalk First Inning Report from Ralph Michaels is your daily cheat sheet for YRFI/NRFI betting. Full game lines and totals with teams that scored in the first inning (and who gave one up) Current streaks (3+ straight 1st inning results highlighted) Starting pitchers listed — Lefty indicators included * ...
Oskeim Sports
Major League Baseball
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1-YEAR ALL-INCLUSIVE PASS
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Atlanta’s pitching staff has been nothing short of spectacular this season, ranking 1st in ERA (3.02), 1st in BABIP (.248), 5th in xERA (3.60), 7th in K/9 (8.93), and 10th in FIP (3.87). Atlanta’s offense has been equally impressive, ranking 1st in batting average (.270), 5th in OBP (.332), and 2nd in wOBA (.344), wRC+ (119), and WAR (9.7). From a technical standpoint, Atlanta enters off a 2-0 loss to the Cubs on Thursday, but MLB home favorites coming off a shutout loss are 372-224 (62.4%; +4.7% ROI) in the opening game of a series. Atlanta right-hander Spencer Strider toes the rubber off an outstanding start against the Dodgers (6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER), which is significant for two reasons. First, MLB favorites of greater than -125 coming off a shutout loss are 314-203 (60.7%; +1% ROI) with starting pitchers who were underdogs in their previous outing. This situation has been 96-53 (64.4%; +3.3% ROI) since August 1, 2019, winning by an average margin of 1.2 runs per game. Second, MLB home favorites with starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better are 1264-668 (65.4%; +3.4% ROI) versus opposing pitchers with ERAs in a certain range. Finally, the Braves are 109-50 (68.6%; +5.5% ROI) as home favorites of greater than -130 versus opponents with a worse win percentage, winning by an average margin of 1.7 runs per game. Take the Atlanta Braves as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Friday, May 15.
DOCUMENTED RESULTS
-> Red-Hot 11-2 Overall Run
-> 141-94 (60%) Overall Run | +95 Units
-> #1 Basketball (WP/ROI): 105-72
-> #1 NBA (WP/ROI), 2025-26 Season
-> 109-67 (62%) MLB Run | 4 #1 MLB Titles
-> Top Plays (All Sports): 47-30 (61%)
Released/revised 28 minute(s) ago
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5% NBA GAME OF WEEK | #1 NBA (WP/ROI): 44-29 | #1 BASKETBALL (WP/ROI): 105-72 | 141-94 RUN (60%): $35.00
On Friday, Jeff Keim is STEPPING OUT with a HUGE 5% NBA GAME OF THE WEEK—one of his STRONGEST releases of the season. Jeff is on a WHITE-HOT 11-2 overall run and has PRODUCED +95 Net Units since February! When Jeff steps out with a 5% NBA release, it signals maximum confidence, maximum edge, and maximum opportunity. DON'T MISS IT!DOCUMENT ...
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Jeff Keim has been ON FIRE, riding an AMAZING 11-2 RUN and is the #1 NBA Handicapper (WP/ROI) in 2025-26! On Friday, Jeff is UNLOADING on a HUGE NBA Total Sharp Play backed by powerful situational analysis and respected sharp-money support. This is an ABSOLUTE MUST PLAY. DON'T GET LEFT BEHIND!DOCUMENTED RESULTS-> Dominant 11-2 Overall Run-& ...
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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While I lost with the Royals yesterday, I like their chances of bouncing back with a victory today. Wacha has been tough. He delivered seven shutout innings in his last start, allowing just two hits. That victory brought him to 4-2 with a 2.63 ERA and 0.99 WHIP on the season. May, on the other hand, is 3-4 with a 4.85 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Let's go KC.
Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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It’s the battle for New York as the Yankees head to Citi Field, and they’ll come out ready to go with Cam Schlittler taking the hill for game 1. Schlittler is off another outstanding outing, throwing 6 innings of shutout baseball while allowing just 2 hits against Milwaukee. That’s now his 2nd shutout in his past 3 starts and he’s allowed 1 earned run or none in 5 straight. He also has the backing of a lineup that has hit the most home runs of any team in baseball this season and ranks 3rd in both runs scored and OPS. Take the Yankees -1.
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MLB FRI PAYDAY! : $25.00
Jimmy is in bounce back mode on Friday but remains on a 9-4 BANKROLL BUILDING RUN with his MLB picks! He has a BEST BET locked loaded, and is ready to MAKE YOU MONEY as he and his clients prepare for another MONSTER WEEKEND! This pick has the edge you need to BEAT YOUR BOOK, so grab this WINNER and continue STACKING DOUGH!87.5% (7-1) 5% MLB TOP PLA ...
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Bryan Power
Major League Baseball
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We faded the Padres with yesterday's free play. Let's come back and do the same thing tonight. In the analysis yesterday, I wrote about how San Diego should feel quite fortunate to be where they are in the standings right now. This is a team that has been trailing after seven innings in more than half their games this season. Sure enough, the Padres got crushed 7-0 in Thursday's series finale at Milwaukee.
Now it's onto Seattle where the Mariners will have some revenge on the mind after being swept down in San Diego last month. The M's have largely been a disappointment so far in '26 (22-23 record), but did just take three of four in their last series and probably should have swept. Friday starter Emerson Hancock had 14 K's over seven innings the last time he pitched at home. He should pitch well here against a Padres' lineup that has the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of baseball.
I just think there's a lot to like right now with Seattle, who appears poised to make a charge up the standings in the AL West. Meanwhile, there are plenty of signs for regression down in San Diego. Speaking of regression, most advance metrics suggest the Padres' starting pitcher for Friday (Randy Vasquez) is a prime candidate. Vasquez has generally overperformed much of his career, but expect a "slip up" here against a Mariners' lineup that has the fourth highest wRC+ (120) at home.
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75% NBA PLAYOFF RUN (24-8) ~ GAME 6 BEST BET! : $25.00
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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We suspect the spate of high-scoring games in the just-completed Reds-Nats series had more to do with the matchup, fueled by all-hit and no-pitch Washington, as each of the three-game set at GABP featured 14 or more runs.
The Guardians, however, usually don’t get involved in those sort of shootouts, and the opener of this Battle of the Buckeye State shapes up a a potential pitching duel between Cincy’s Andrew Abbott (0 ER across 11 2/3 IP in his last two starts) and Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee (just 1 run and 1 hit across 6 IP last Sunday vs. the Twins). Play Reds-Guardians “Under”
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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The Sunshine State Showdown has us on the Rays over the Fish in Tropicana Field. Tampa has been a cash cow going (16-4) over their last 20 games overall. Sitting atop the AL East Division and seriously tough to beat at home, sporting a (14-4) record in The Trop.
Tougher trip for the Marlins traveling in from a (9-1) loss in Minnesota yesterday. As compared to the Rays who were off yesterday. Starting pitching may be a slight advantage for the Junk the Miami starter, however the spot and the better team point to the Tampa side. This just missed the client card for Friday. For today's free bet- Lay the short number with the Rays.
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$$ YANKEES vs METS FRIDAY BEST BET MLB (100%) $$: $15.00
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For a limited time, get every baseball play from your favorite handicapper for three full days — and any 5% Best Bets released — for just $49. That's only $16.33 per day for every premium baseball release your handicapper posts. You'll receive instant access the moment plays are released, ensuring you get the best possible number before the lin ...
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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All-Access 3 Day Baseball Pass - Including all 5% MAX plays - 30% OFF!
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follow for free OPS rankings, hitter matchups and free plays DAILY!
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===============
BOS at ATL
Game setup
Item | BOS | ATL |
|---|---|---|
Record | 18-24 | 30-13 |
Split | 10-11 away | 14-6 home |
Starter | Connelly Early | Spencer Strider |
Starter hand | LHP | RHP |
Starter season line | 3-2, 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 42.2 IP, 39 K, 18 BB, 5 HR | 1-0, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.1 IP, 14 K, 7 BB, 1 HR |
Team runs/game | 3.81 | 5.51 |
Team AVG / OBP / SLG | .236 / .313 / .354 | .272 / .334 / .453 |
Team OPS rank | 27 | 1 |
Team HR rank | 28 | 2 |
Team ERA / WHIP | 3.88 / 1.27 | 3.06 / 1.14 |
Projected score
Boston 3.4
Atlanta 5.1
First 5 innings: Boston 1.6, Atlanta 2.7
Full game total: 8.5
Projected winner: Atlanta
Best projected value: Atlanta moneyline if sportsbook price is -175 or better; Atlanta F5 moneyline; Boston team total under if posted 3.5 or higher.
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
ATL | 4 | .914 |
BOS | 25 | .641 |
Final 1-30 model rank chart
Team | Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP rank | SP composite | Bullpen last 10 days ERA+WHIP rank | Bullpen composite | Lineup run production last 10 days rank | Last 10 active-lineup run form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL | 10 | 4.18 | 5 | 3.91 | 2 | 52 R, .354 wOBA |
BOS | 13 | 4.38 | 12 | 4.72 | 25 | 34 R, .286 wOBA |
Best values
Bet | Value grade | Fair price | Playable price |
|---|---|---|---|
ATL moneyline | Best value | -196 | -175 or better |
Final betting read
Atlanta projects as the clear side, 5.1 to 3.4. Boston’s offensive profile is the main blocker: low run rate, low OPS, weak HR output, and multiple lineup injuries. Early is capable of keeping Boston alive for five innings, but Atlanta’s right-handed pressure, home environment, and lineup depth create the stronger run path. Strider’s walk rate keeps Atlanta -1.5 from becoming a top play, but his strikeout ceiling plus Boston’s weak power profile make Atlanta first-five moneyline the cleanest derivative angle.
Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago
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Reds Guardians MLB Feature Bet from a 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper: $15.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a feature bet in the Reds at Guardians game, and it’s one of the strongest value spots on the board. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-value MLB bet ...
MLB 3 Bet Package for $19 ($45 value) from 3x WagerTalk #1 Profit King + 10 Year MLB Scout
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Tokyo Brandon’s MLB 3 play package is UP! Among WagerTalk’s 33 handicappers, Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 in All-Sports Profit 3 of the last 5 years and has the long-term receipts to prove it:2024: #1 MLB Profit (+145 units)2024: #1 All-Sports Profit (+180 units)2022: #1 All-Sports Profit (+125 units)2021: #1 All-Sports Profit (+225 units)2025 ...
Yankees Mets MLB Feature Bet from a 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper: $15.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a feature bet in the Tigers vs Mets game, and it’s one of the strongest value spots on the board. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-value MLB bet wit ...
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Naturally. You have to offer moneyline picks and WagerTalk certainly does for MLB.
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You'll find MLB runline picks galore at WagerTalk. So what is the runline and why should you bet on it? Well, simple!
The runline is baseball's version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Truly, the runline is the great equalizer - it's just a little easier to place a bet when you've got a 2 run head start, right?
WagerTalk's expert MLB handicappers are runline prediction masterminds.
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Our daily HR home prop article is the most popular such article online!
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!
