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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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1.5% BAL/CLE over 8 (-110)
Good to -120
FD/DK/CZR/MGM
Model projection is close to 9 in this one. Weather is slightly run suppressing which is why we are getting an 8 but we expect both pitchers to continue to struggle keeping runners off the bases.
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The Prez
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Love what we are getting from the Rays this season, and they head into this game with a big pitching advantage as the Pirates don't have anyone left to throw in the bullpen for this game after it basically burned through all their top relievers in the Nationals series. I really like Nick Martinez in this spot as he's made some really good starts for the Rays and does a great job of keeping the ball in the ballpark as the Pirates have become a HR or bust type offense. Bubba Chandler is a medicare pitcher who throws hard and gets hit hard. That's not great against this contact hitting the Rays team, who doesn't strikeout a lot, but certainly makes teams have to play defense, and the Pirates are not a very good defensive team. I think this is a great price for the Rays who have a big advantage on the mound and in the bullpen.
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Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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906 San Francisco at Washington
This line is simply too high right now to back the Giants, even though they have the more talented starter in Logan Webb. He is opposed by Zack Littell who’s a bit underrated in the betting market.
The Giants are not a good hitting team, ranking 27th in wRC+ on the season. Just ahead of the Mets, Reds and White Sox. Say what you want about the Nationals pitching, but the bats are live. Currently ranking 4th in the league in wRC+. Behind only the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. Nice underdog value in the nation’s capital.
PLAY WASHINGTON
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Heading to Little Havana in Miami for the Brewers and Marlins and betting this one over. Two pitchers that have major question marks are the angle. Junk the starter for the Fish got rocked his last time out against Detroit. Brewers still undecided as I type this around midnight on the east coast. It looks like they will call up Robert Glasser from AAA Nashville to take the hill. He was knocked around in his last minor league outing. The Marlins bats have been surprisingly good this year, particularly at home. This one likely has runs in bunches. For Friday's free bet- Bet the over.
Free Pick Recap: 3-1 (+2.93 units)
Thursday- Rockies (+146) WINNER
Thursday- Nats/ Brewers under 9 (-110) Loss
Wednesday- Cubs (+122) WINNER
Tuesday- Backs (+135) WINNER
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Ralph Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(903) Atlanta Braves at (904) Philadelphia Phillies: Total
First Inning Over +0.5 (-130) Martín Pérez (LHP), Taijuan Walker (RHP) Must Start
Atlanta is now 5-2 YRFI on the road including 4 straight YRFI.
Philadelphia is 9-4 YRFI their L13 games overall.
Perez is 2-0 YRFI & Walker is 3-0 YRFI with a 7.36 ERA
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Dwayne Bryant
Major League Baseball
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Key Situational Angle:
In the first game of a series, play ON road favorites of -150 or more if their opponent played yesterday and the game went into extra innings.
Applies to San Francisco.
54-12 (82% win rate, 28.7% ROI) since the 2008 season, winning by an average of 3.2 runs!
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Will Rogers
Major League Baseball
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FREE PICK | Los Angeles Dodgers - Run Line | Good until -2.5, -140.
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow/Tomoyuki Sugano (Action).
This series should be wrapped up by the Dodgers pretty fast in my opinion. The pitching from LA is significantly better and the batting lineup is one of the biggest mismatches that you'll ever see this season. Not that I have anything against the Rockies. They are just inexperienced and don't have great discipline yet, with the worst chase % rate so far this year. The Dodgers square the ball up and hit the barrel at the 2nd best rate in the MLB behind only the Yankees currently. In Colorado, the ball should fly. LAD wins this by a lot.
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Tokyo Brandon
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BAL at CLE — April 17, 2026
Projected score: CLE 4.7, BAL 3.9
Projected first 5 innings: CLE 2.6, BAL 2.0
The game setup leans slightly Cleveland. Progressive Field is outdoors, and the Cleveland forecast around first pitch is in the low-to-mid 50s with cloud cover and later thunder chances, which is a mild drag on carry rather than a strong weather boost. Publicly posted market numbers had Cleveland roughly -135 to -139 and Baltimore roughly +116 to +120, with the full-game total at 8.0.
The lineup context is mixed but still favors Cleveland’s run environment a bit more. Baltimore’s current core is Gunnar Henderson, Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Jeremiah Jackson and Samuel Basallo, with Tyler O’Neill, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle unavailable. Cleveland’s current everyday shape is Steven Kwan, Chase DeLauter, José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, George Valera, Angel Martínez, Juan Brito, Bo Naylor and Brayan Rocchio, with Gabriel Arias out.
Why the model lands there
Chris Bassitt’s 2026 surface form is poor: 9.00 ERA and 2.36 WHIP through 11.0 innings. His April split is 9.45 ERA, and his lone day start was especially rough. Against Cleveland since 2024, the supplied sample is only one start, but it was a 5 1/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER outing. One positive for Baltimore is that Bassitt historically has pitched Cleveland better at Progressive Field than his current 2026 form suggests.
Tanner Bibee’s 2026 overall line is shaky too at 6.38 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, but the split structure is more encouraging here: 1.93 ERA at home, and his only home start was his cleanest early outing. The direct history versus Baltimore since 2024 is volatile but usable: 18 2/3 IP, 16 H, 10 ER, 16 K, 5 BB in three starts, including one bad clunker and two steadier outings. That makes the Baltimore side live early, but not enough to erase Cleveland’s contextual edge.
Bullpen form narrows the gap. Baltimore’s bullpen has a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP overall and 3.72 ERA over its last 3-game slice shown on the matchup board; Cleveland’s bullpen sits at 3.42 ERA and 1.18 WHIP overall. On broader recent form, Cleveland’s full staff has a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last 10 games, while Baltimore’s full staff has been steadier, and Baltimore’s relief group has recent healthy leverage arms in place while Cleveland has had heavier contact exposure.
The recent offense layer is close, but Baltimore gets docked for roster attrition and Cleveland gets docked for the “returning home from road” flat spot. Baltimore is 6-4 over its last 10 with a .243 team average, while Cleveland is also 6-4 over its last 10 and owns a .713 team OPS over that span. Season-wide, Baltimore has the better overall batting line at .245/.334/.393 while Cleveland is at .229/.314/.383, but Cleveland’s healthy top-of-order continuity is better for this one-game setup.
Projected boxscore values
Split | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 2.0 | 2.6 |
Full game | 3.9 | 4.7 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Bassitt | 5 0/3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Tanner Bibee | 5 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
Side | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus minus fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CLE ML | 58.5% | -141 | -135 to -139 | slight edge |
BAL ML | 41.5% | +141 | +116 to +120 | worse than fair |
First-5 total model:
Projected F5 total: 4.6
Market | Projected | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
F5 Over 4.0/4.5 range | 4.6 | slight over lean |
F5 Under 4.0/4.5 range | 4.6 | no clear edge |
First-5 team totals:
Team | Projected F5 TT | Reference line | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BAL | 2.0 | 1.5 | -145 | +145 |
CLE | 2.6 | 2.5 | -102 | +102 |
Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Baltimore Orioles: .727
Cleveland Guardians: .697
30-point ranking board
Category | BAL | CLE |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve rank | Chris Bassitt 25/30 | Tanner Bibee 18/30 |
Bullpen last 10 days ERA+WHIP rank | 10/30 | 14/30 |
Lineup last 10 days runs + contact quality rank | 11/30 | 13/30 |
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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After featuring for the Chisox last season, Aaron Civale gets to pitch against his old team tonight, but now as a member of the A’s after impressing in his three early-season starts (2-0, 1.72 ERA, 0.96 WHIP).
Meanwhile, the struggling Pale Hose bring no momentum into Sacto after getting swept three at home by the Rays, though starter Davis Martin has been keeping the Sox within earshot, allowing just 2 runs and 11 hits across 13 IP in his last two starts. Runs might be hard to come by tonight at Sutter Health Park. Play White Sox-A’s “Under”
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Seattle starter Logan Gilbert projects to give up just 1.9 runs with a 2.80 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Texas’ lineup has hit just .185 (23-124) with a weak .600 OPS against Gilbert in his career. The Rangers will start Jacob deGrom. The righty projects to give up 1.8 earned runs with a 2.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Friday night.
Play UNDER the total.
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!
