Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For April 16

This is a classic buy-low spot based on matchup and projected workload. Lopez has gone under this number in all three starts, but the pitch count tells the real story—he’s averaging around 93 pitches per outing, which is more than enough to get through 5+ innings with even average efficiency.

The issue has been contact and runs allowed, giving up 16 hits and 11 earned runs in just 13.1 innings. But this matchup offers a chance to correct that.

Texas has struggled heavily against left-handed pitching, ranking 29th in MLB in that split. That’s a major downgrade in competition compared to what he’s seen so far.

If Lopez can generate early outs and avoid high-stress innings, the pitch count should carry him into the 5th and potentially beyond. With volume already there and a favorable opponent, this is a great spot for him to finally clear this number.

Released/revised 31 minute(s) ago

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COL at HOU — 4/16/2026

Projection: HOU 5.0, COL 3.8
First 5: HOU 2.8, COL 1.9
Projected total: 8.8 full game, 4.7 first 5.

Sugano has been excellent in his early 2026 Rockies sample: 1-0, 2.16 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 16.2 IP, 12 K. His road split was also strong, allowing 1 run on 2 hits with 4 strikeouts in 4.2 road innings.

Model calculation

Projected score boxes

Projected starting pitcher box

Projected hitter box — COL

Projected hitter box — HOU

Moneyline

Tokyo’s Clutch Index

OPS with a runner on 3rd and fewer than 2 outs

Rank board

Best value: COL moneyline

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

First game up on Thursday has us attacking the under in PNC Park. Two hot pitchers squaring off and an elevated total in pitchers park sets the stage.

Nationals starter Foster Griffen has been great since returning from playing overseas. He is (2-0) letting up only 1 run his last 2 two starts. Braxton Ashcroft is slated to go for the Pirates and the righty has only letup one run in each of his last two outings with a spectacular 17 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Get away day should make for a quick game and runs at a premium. This one just missed the client card for today. For Thursday's free pick- Bet under.

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We have a good one at Petco Park where the Padres have won 7 straight and 10 of 11. This team is hot and Walker Buehler didn’t allow a run on just 3 hits over 6 innings in his last start while not giving up a single walk. Luis Castillo clearly isn’t what he used to be, and he was rocked for 7 earned on 10 hits in just 3.1 innings last time out, and 4 runs over 3.2 the time before that. We’ll ride the hot team in San Diego tonight. Take the Padres.

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KCR at DET — 4/16/2026

Projection: KCR 3.9, DET 3.5
First 5: KCR 2.0, DET 1.7
Projected total: 7.4 full game, 3.7 first 5

The market was sitting around KCR -108 to -118, DET +100 to -110, total 8.0, with the listed projected lineups showing Bubic vs. Montero and game-time weather around 63°F, 14 mph right-to-left wind, and roughly 54% rain risk. The live projected lineups were KC: Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Carter Jensen, Michael Massey, Jac Caglianone, Isaac Collins, Kyle Isbel and DET: Jahmai Jones, Gleyber Torres, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler, Matt Vierling, Wenceel Perez, Kevin McGonigle, Javier Báez.

Kris Bubic entered with a stronger current profile: 2-1, 2.50 ERA, 18.0 IP, 23 K, 0.83 WHIP on the official stat line, with ESPN also showing a top-tier WHIP rank and a strong early-season combined ERA/WHIP standing. Keider Montero entered with a strong results line as well, shown on the live boards as 1-1, 1.74 ERA, and a combined ERA/WHIP leaderboard slot slightly ahead of Bubic, though on the shorter sample and with lower strikeout volume. The combined starter-quality board placed Montero 5th and Bubic 9th among current MLB pitchers on the accessible leaderboard snapshot, which converts to Montero rank 5/30, Bubic rank 9/30 for the requested starter-rank chart.

The head-to-head sample favors Bubic more cleanly. Since 2024, and still inside the usable MLB window because the meaningful start was on 6/1/2025, Bubic has allowed 1 earned run in 9.0 innings against Detroit, including 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 9 K, 2 BB on June 1, 2025. Montero’s sample against Kansas City is more mixed: 11.2 innings, 13 hits, 4 earned runs, 5 strikeouts, 2 walks across two appearances since 2024, with the meaningful 2025 outing being 4.2 IP, 7 H, 0 ER on June 1, 2025. That gives Bubic the better opponent-specific baseline and the better strikeout expectation.

The recent-form offense split pushes the game lower. Kansas City’s season offense was poor overall at 55 runs, .216/.304/.331, and the recent form was colder: 24 runs and a .580 OPS over the last 10 games. Detroit’s season offense was better at 72 runs, .236/.325/.364, with a clearly better recent scoring environment than Kansas City, though still not explosive. The prior game in this series was another low-scoring game, DET 2, KCR 1, and Kansas City had been held to 2 or fewer runs in 8 of 17 games.

The bullpen comparison is close, but slightly favors Detroit on the blend used here. Team-wide last-10 ERA sat Tigers 3.69, Royals 3.71, essentially even, but the recent relief-only board placed Kansas City’s bullpen 23rd over the last 10 games, while Detroit’s recent reliever usage was steadier and cleaner in the immediate series context. Detroit also came in on a four-game winning streak, while Kansas City had just lost another one-run game and continued to show late-game bullpen instability. That nudges the late innings slightly toward Detroit even though Bubic is the better starter.

Comerica and the weather pull in opposite directions. The park is still less homer-friendly than the smaller AL parks, but the mid-60s temperature, crosswind, and rain threat do not create a strong over environment. Detroit was not returning home from a road trip here, so there is no flat-spot homecoming deduction. Kansas City was finishing the road stop before heading to New York, which adds a mild travel drag only on the margins. Overall, the environment projects a little below the market 8.0, not dramatically below it.

Projected score boxes

First 5 team total projections

Projected starting pitcher box

Projected hitter box — KCR

Projected hitter box — DET

Moneyline

Tokyo’s Clutch Index

OPS with a runner on third and less than 2 outs

Rank board

Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago