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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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Major value with the Cubs today as they ride the momentum of a dramatic come from behind victory against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Chicago is being priced as a big underdog against a Phillies team that’s lost 4 of their past 5. Philly has yet to show much run production this season, as they’ve score the 3rd fewest runs in baseball year to date. Sure, they have Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound, but Sanchez gave up 4 runs on 11 hits last time out against the struggling Giants. Javier Assad is scheduled to make his 2nd start for the North Side, and he didn’t allow a run on just 1 hit through 5.2 innings in his season debut. We’ll play the number here with Chicago at the nice plus price. Take the Cubs.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Cleveland Guardians (-114) Gavin Williams Must Start
Cleveland starter Gavin Williams is a guy we have been looking to bet this season. The hard throwing righty has racked up 25 strikeouts in his 17 innings of work so far this season and has letup just 1 run and 3 hits over his last 2 starts.
The Red Birds have gotten blown out in each of their last two games, letting up 16 runs in the process to the Red Sox. Now up against the 1st place Guardians with Williams on the hill is a tough situation to turn it around. This just missed the Monday client card. For today's free pick- Bet Cleveland.
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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CHC at PHI —
Chicago arrives after a Sunday home game against Pittsburgh and a prior 11-inning game on April 11, so a small travel/fatigue deduction was applied to the Cubs’ bats. Philadelphia is already settled into a home stand; this is not a same-day return-home flat spot off the road, so no special homecoming penalty was applied to the Phillies.
Cristopher Sánchez brings the stronger current skill base: 1.65 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and 4 walks in 16.1 innings this season, after a 2.50 ERA season in 2025 and a dominant 1.94 home ERA in 2025. His 2026 split has been much better by day than by night, but the larger 2025-26 body of work still grades him clearly above average here. Javier Assad has only 5.2 MLB innings in 2026, all scoreless, after a much smaller 2025 MLB sample, so the raw 0.00 ERA was regressed heavily; the working expectation is closer to a mid-3s true-talent run-prevention line over about five-plus innings than to his current zero.
Citizens Bank Park remains a slightly offense-leaning run environment in the recent park-factor tables, and the mild wind-out setup prevented the total from drifting lower. J.T. Realmuto’s day-to-day foot issue slightly trims the Phillies’ offensive projection, while the Cubs’ expected order still shows Matt Shaw in the lineup after Michael Busch sat Sunday.
Run model
Team | Baseline runs | Key adjustments | Final projected runs |
|---|---|---|---|
CHC | 4.1 | road/travel -0.2, recent vs LHP -0.2, Sánchez home/skill -0.4, park/weather +0.2, Phillies bullpen +0.1 | 3.6 |
PHI | 4.0 | home +0.1, vs RHP +0.2, Assad regression +0.2, Cubs bullpen -0.2, Realmuto health -0.1, park/weather +0.1, no-bottom-9 -0.0 to -0.1 | 4.3 |
Projected score
Segment | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
First 5 innings | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Full game | 3.6 | 4.3 |
Projected winner: Philadelphia
Starting pitcher boxscore projection
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Assad (CHC) | 5 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | 6 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore
Expected batting orders are based on the listed Monday lineups.
Chicago hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nico Hoerner | 4.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Alex Bregman | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
Seiya Suzuki | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Carson Kelly | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Ian Happ | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Matt Shaw | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Miguel Amaya | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Philadelphia hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trea Turner | 4.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Kyle Schwarber | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
Bryce Harper | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Brandon Marsh | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Bryson Stott | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Adolis Garcia | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
J.T. Realmuto | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Alec Bohm | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Justin Crawford | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
30-point curve board
Category | CHC | PHI | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve (current season, sample-adjusted) | 23/30 Assad | 22/30 Sánchez | CHC raw rate edge, PHI larger sample |
Bullpen form last 10 days (ERA + WHIP composite) | 3.82 (2.73 ERA + 1.09 WHIP) | 4.35 (3.17 ERA + 1.18 WHIP) | CHC |
Lineup production last 10 days (runs + estimated wOBA input) | 35 runs / ~.284 wOBA | 36 runs / ~.314 wOBA | PHI |
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Naturally. Â You have to offer moneyline picks and WagerTalk certainly does for MLB.Â
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You'll find MLB runline picks galore at WagerTalk. Â So what is the runline and why should you bet on it? Â Well, simple!
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?Â
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? Â If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
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Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. Â They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, Â the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
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Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. Â 116 games in 1906. Nuts. Â They went 116-36. Â The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. Â The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. Â The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.Â
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Â Indeed it has! Â And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.Â
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Â Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Â Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. Â 10 World Series titles!