Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For April 14

Since 2016, MLB road favorites in Game 1 of a series are 1595-1141 (58.3%), while American League road favorites of -120 to -220 are 1521-1032 (59.6%; +1% ROI) versus non-divisional opponents, including 940-627 (60%; +1% ROI) since 2017, winning by an average margin of +1.3 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 764-483 (61.3%; +1% ROI) during the first two months of the regular season, including 374-223 (62.6%; +2.4% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.6 runs per game. Let’s also note that non-divisional road favorites of -170 or less with one day of rest are 299-199 (60%; +6.5% ROI) following a home game. Tampa Bay arrives off a 5-4 win over the Yankees, which is significant because the Rays are 400-289 (58.1%; +4.7% ROI) following a win since 2018, winning by an average margin of +0.7 runs per game. Even better, Tampa Bay swept the three-game series over the Yankees, and non-divisional road favorites of -130 to -170 coming off three or more consecutive wins are 93-59 (61.2%; +3.1% ROI) since 2009, including 55-29 (65.5%; +9.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game. Finally, the Rays are 174-127 (57.8%) as road favorites since 2018, winning by an average of +0.9 runs per game. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Tuesday, April 14.

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Released/revised 6 minute(s) ago

Key Situational Angle:

Play ON underdogs smaller than +130 if they lost their last game as an underdog, had more hits in that loss than their season average, and today's starter produced a Quality Start in his last outing.

Applies to St. Louis.

46-25 (65%) since 5/9/2024, good for a 38% ROI.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Look for Atlanta to get to Miami starter Max Meyer who has allowed 6 runs in 14 innings of work over his 3 starts. Meyer has had control problems as his K/BB in his L2 starts is 10-6in just 9 2/3 innings of work. Atlanta starter Reynaldo Lopez has allowed just 2 runs in 15 innings of work. Making this a 1st 5 Inning wager and taking the bullpens out of the equation.

TAKE ATLANTA -0.5 1st 5 Innings

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

2% Tampa Bay (7:40 ET): Coming into the 2026 season, I was higher on both of these teams (relative to their respective season win totals). But, pretty clear to me, that the White Sox still have a “long way to go” as they’re just 6-10 with a MLB-worst -30 run differential. They were probably happy to have Monday off as NINE pitchers were used in Sunday’s 6-5 win at Kansas City. Noah Schultz will be making his big league debut here. While he impressed in three appearances down at Triple-A Charlotte (3-0, 1.29 ERA) this season, you have to wonder if he’s being rushed up. Last year, Schultz posted a 4.95 ERA in the minors with a pretty high walk rate.

You also have to figure that Schultz may be on a “short leash” in his big league debut, which brings the White Sox awful bullpen (5.35 ERA) sooner rather than later. Again, eight different relievers got used on Sunday. Then you also have the matter of Chicago being the lowest-scoring team in all of baseball with just 49 runs scored in 16 games. They were shut out both Friday and Saturday by the Royals.

Tampa Bay just pulled off its first three-game sweep of the Yankees since 2021 by scoring exactly five runs every time out. The Rays’ offense is Top 10 so far, averaging 4.7 runs per game. In terms of pitching, they’ll send lefty Shane McClanahan to the bump tonight. McClanahan, an All-Star in both 2022 and ‘23, missed all of the L2 seasons due to injury. He’s allowed just three hits (but seven walks) in his first two starts back. I expect the control issue to be cleaned up moving forward. This is an ideal matchup against a White Sox lineup that is not only dead last in scoring, but dead last in wRC+ (68). They are batting just .198 against lefties. End of the day, I just think the Rays are the far better ballclub here. 2% Tampa Bay (Play to -152)

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Verified starter: Noah Schultz for Chicago, not “CHW.” The live probable-pitcher boards list Shane McClanahan vs. Noah Schultz for Rays at White Sox on April 14, 2026..

Projected score: TBR 4.2, CHW 2.9
Projected first 5 innings: TBR 2.4, CHW 1.3

The model leans Tampa Bay from the stronger offense, the deeper known starter baseline, and a major gap in recent run production. The market is roughly Tampa Bay -135 / Chicago +115 with a total around 7.5. Weather is warm for April with crosswind and some rain risk, so the park does not suppress scoring as much as a normal cold Chicago night would.

Tampa Bay’s offensive split versus left-handed pitching is modest but still usable at about .631 OPS, while the White Sox have been worse against lefties at about .600 OPS. Recent offense separates the teams more clearly: Tampa Bay is 6-4 over its last 10 with a .668 OPS and 39 runs, while Chicago has only 22 runs over its last 10 and a very poor recent OPS profile around .606 over the broader recent sample.

Shane McClanahan has the better known major-league baseline. His live probable-pitcher line is 0-1, 4.15 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.2 IP, 9 K, and his recent outing against the Cubs was 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K. Schultz is making his MLB debut here, so the projection uses a shorter leash and more conservative efficiency estimate. That unknown keeps Tampa Bay from projecting as a much larger favorite.

There is no meaningful, trustworthy within-window batter-vs-pitcher sample to weight heavily for either side. No usable 2025-26 McClanahan-vs-White Sox start surfaced in the live search, and Schultz has no MLB track record yet. That means the BvP component is close to neutral rather than a real driver here. The bigger pitching context is bullpen-related, and that actually leans Chicago: over the last 10 games, the White Sox own the best team ERA in MLB at 2.53 with a 1.10 WHIP, while the Rays sit around 4.10 ERA over the same span.

The recent bullpen edge keeps the White Sox from collapsing late in the projection, but the lineup gap is still stronger than the bullpen gap. Chicago also returns home after the Kansas City road series, which creates a small flat-spot deduction on the bats. Tampa Bay is continuing its trip and avoids that specific home-return penalty. The no-bottom-of-the-ninth adjustment trims a little from Chicago’s late scoring because Chicago is the home underdog and less likely to bat in the ninth.

Calculation summary

Boxscore projection

Starting pitcher projection

Projected hitter box

Projected lineups currently show Tampa Bay with Yandy Díaz, Ryan Vilade, Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, Ben Williamson, Jonny DeLuca, Nick Fortes, Cedric Mullins, Taylor Walls and Chicago with Miguel Vargas, Chase Meidroth, Munetaka Murakami, Edgar Quero, Colson Montgomery, T. Murray, Luis Acuña, Derek Hill plus the remaining lineup slot around the current regular mix.

Tampa Bay

Chicago

Wager & Probability Analysis

Using the projected 4.2 to 2.9 score distribution:

• Tampa Bay win probability: 61.9%

• Chicago win probability: 38.1%

• Fair moneyline: TBR -162 / CHW +162

Moneyline

Consensus odds and total were showing roughly TBR -135 / CHW +115 and 7.5, with some books shading the total under and others sitting at over 7.0 -135.

Totals

Projected full-game total is 7.1. Projected first-5 total is 3.7.

*A clean live first-5 total was not surfaced on the accessible market pages, so 4.0 is used as the working comparison line for a low-total game with two lefties and an MLB debut arm. The full-game total range is directly surfaced.

Tokyo’s Clutch Index

A reliable live table for team OPS with a runner on 3rd base and fewer than 2 outs did not surface in a clean team-by-team format, so no exact 1-30 ranking is stated rather than inventing values. The surfaced live search returned a different situational scoring table instead of the requested OPS split.

Ranking panel

1) Today’s starting pitchers, ERA + WHIP curved rank among starters with 14+ innings

Neither starter qualifies for the requested 14+ inning threshold on current MLB 2026 volume. McClanahan is at 8.2 IP and Schultz is making his debut. Both are NR for the strict qualified-starter ranking.

2) Team bullpen last 10 days, ERA + WHIP combined rank

Chicago’s recent run prevention has been the best in baseball over the last 10 games, while Tampa Bay has been much more ordinary.

3) Lineup run production last 10 days, runs + quality metric

A full live runs + wOBA table was not cleanly exposed, so the nearest surfaced proxy is runs + OPS over the last 10.

Tampa Bay has been the clearly better recent offense.

Best model leans: Tampa Bay moneyline, full-game under 7.5, first-5 under 4.0 proxy.

Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

Free Pick on New York Mets - RUN LINE | Good until +1.5 , -150.

Pitching Matchup: Nolan McLean/Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Away Listed - McLean Must Start).

It's definitely been a difficult stretch of games for the Mets who haven't won a game in a week. New York is still dealing with the fact that its best player remains out in Juan Soto. But, this is a New York team that has very high expectations and should be able to play well even without one of its top players. Nolan McLean has been one of the top arms so far this season, with only a few mishaps. While Yamamoto has pitched well too, he has given up a pair of runs in both of his home starts so far, meaning he's not unhittable. I like NYM here to get back on track and I'll take the RL just in case.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

Detroit starter Framber Valdez projects to give up just 2.0 runs with a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  Kansas City’s lineup has hit just .157 (14-89) with a weak .501 OPS against Valdez in his career.  The Royals will start Cole Ragans.  The lefty projects to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Tuesday night.

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Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Though these teams were off on Monday, we saw a lot of scoring across MLB last night and this matchup on the mound hardly suggests a pitching duel tonight.

Cole Ragans (5.91 ERA) has had a bit of a bumpy go for the Royals while losing his first three starts and couldn’t even get out of the first inning last Wednesday at Cleveland in an eventual 10-2 loss to the Guardians. Meanwhile, so far not so overwhelming for Framber Valdez in his new Tigers uniform, especially last Wednesday vs. the Twins when allowing 8 runs and 10 htis across just 5 IP of an eventual 8-6 loss.

Both were also involved in higher-scoring games on Sunday after a succession of lower-scoring affairs, especially in the case of KC (which faced the low-scoring Chisox in a tedious series that finally awakened on Sunday with 11 combined runs). We look "over" 7.5 runs and use -110, and would keep this in play up to -115. Play Royals-Tigers “Over”

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

Getting down on this one in the overnight betting markets and backing the Fish with Max Meyer on the hill getting the plus price. The righty has been solid so far this season and he is up against a questionable Braves starter. Reynaldo Lopez is slated to go for Atlanta and the last time he was on the bump he was in a literal fist fight with Solar charging the mound. After serving his five game suspension it makes for a tricky handicap against a pesky Miami lineup. Laying over (-150) with the Braves is too expensive. Just missed the client for for Tuesday. For today's free pick- Bet Marlins (+130).

Today’s MLB Betting Show:

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago

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The Giants come in with a 6-10 record and off losing a series in Baltimore, but positive regression is on the way for this team. San Francisco is actually 8^th in batting average as of Monday evening, and Robbie Ray will help them get back on track today. Ray has been fantastic this season, fresh off 6.2 innings of shutout baseball while allowing just 3 hits against the Phillies. In fact, Ray has allowed just 4 runs combined in his first 3 starts of the year. Cincy comes in losers of 4 of 5 and will start Brady Singer, who was just knocked around for 6 runs on 10 hits in just 2.2 innings against Miami. Take the Giants.

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Released/revised 10 hour(s) ago