Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For March 31

Tampa Bay Rays 116 Shane McClanahan (LHP), Brandon Woodruff (RHP) Must Start

The long awaited return of Shane McClanahan is over with the southpaw slated to start tonight. The former 1st rounder out of USF has spectacular advanced metrics in MLB when he is healthy. By all accounts we get that here and are backing the Rays at the plus price.

The Brewers started the season off nicely with the sweep over the White Sox. Although, this is a step up in class and Woodruff has a lot of question marks coming into the 2026 season. This is his first start of the year off a shortened spring with injuries. Multiple quotes out of Brewers camp suggesting his leash will be short. This one just missed the client card. For Tuesday's free pick- Bet Tampa.

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Fried brings the better run-prevention baseline after a 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP 2025 and a scoreless 6 1/3 in his 2026 opener; Gilbert’s baseline is still strong after a 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP 2025, though his opener was a 5 1/3-IP, 3-ER outing. T-Mobile Park is still one of MLB’s most run-suppressing parks, with MLB listing it 30th in runs and hits and 20th in homers over 2023-25, while Statcast’s 2025 park factor page showed a 91 run factor there.

Seattle entered this game 5th in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS, while the Yankees were 15th in runs and 17th in OPS; on the mound, New York entered 1st in MLB team ERA and Seattle 8th. Sample too small to trust.

The roster/travel context is mildly favorable to Seattle. New York is continuing a West Coast trip from San Francisco to Seattle, while Seattle stays home after the Cleveland series, so there is no “returning home from road trip” flat-spot deduction for either club. Injury-wise, Anthony Volpe is out for the Yankees and J.P. Crawford out for Seattle, which affects the likely bottom-third lineup construction for both teams. Weather is mostly a non-factor here because the game is at T-Mobile Park, and ESPN listed Seattle gametime conditions in the mid-to-upper 50s.

The cleanest HTH Yankees note is Cody Bellinger: 5 AB, .600 AVG, 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. For Seattle vs. Fried, the preview snippet shows Randy Arozarena 0-for-4, Mitch Garver .929 OPS in 6 AB, and Josh Naylor with no prior matchup listed, which supports a conclusion of “some scattered familiarity, but not enough to override the core talent/park model.”

Model build

I used this run framework:

• Baseline SP run allowance over expected outing length: Fried 2.1 runs allowed over 6.0 IP; Gilbert 2.4 runs allowed over 5.2 IP.

• Bullpen add-on: Yankees 1.4 runs over final 3.0 IP; Mariners 1.4 runs over final 3.1 IP.

• Park adjustment: -0.35 total runs for T-Mobile suppression.

• Night-game adjustment: -0.05 total runs.

• No-bottom-9 adjustment: -0.05 runs from Seattle because New York is a slight road favorite in my model.

• Travel/fatigue: -0.05 runs from New York for continued road travel; 0.00 for Seattle.

That lands here:

• Projected full-game score: NYY 3.8, SEA 3.5

• Projected full-game total: 7.3

1) Projected score boxes

1st 5 innings

Full game

2) Starting pitcher boxscore projection

3) Projected hitter stat lines

Yankees

Mariners

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline

Full-game total

Using model total 7.3:

Team rank snapshot, 1-30

These are very small-sample ranks, so I’d treat them as descriptive, not predictive.

Why Yankees -112:

1. Fried has the stronger run-prevention profile entering the game.
   In his 2026 opener, Max Fried went 6 1/3 scoreless innings with a 0.47 WHIP, while Logan Gilbert’s opener was 5 1/3 innings, 3 earned runs with a 5.06 ERA so far. That gives New York the cleaner starting-pitching floor.

2. Fried’s form is exactly what you want for a road favorite in a low-total park.
   Reuters’ game recap shows Fried allowed just 2 hits and 1 walk in that opener, and ESPN’s game page confirms this is at T-Mobile Park with Fried vs. Gilbert listed as the probable starters. In a lower-scoring environment, a steadier ace matters more.

3. T-Mobile Park helps the better prevention side.
   Statcast’s park factors list T-Mobile Park with a 91 run factor over the relevant rolling window, which is below league average and supports a suppressed-scoring game. That tends to help the side with the slightly better run-prevention projection, which in this matchup is New York because of Fried.

4. The Yankees’ pitching staff has started hotter than Seattle’s.
   The series preview notes New York opened the season by allowing just one run over three games in San Francisco. That supports the idea that if Fried gets them through six, the bullpen can protect a narrow edge.

5. The market is close enough that even a modest SP edge can matter.
   ESPN’s matchup page had this game around essentially a coin flip, with its predictor at SEA 52% / NYY 48%, and the betting line around Yankees -112 / Mariners -108. When the market is this tight, a model that prefers Fried and makes NYY closer to -119 can justify a small Yankees play.

6. There is at least one notable Yankees batter with good history vs. Gilbert.
   MLB’s preview snippet showed Cody Bellinger is 3-for-5 (.600) with a 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. Batter-vs-pitcher data is usually secondary, but in a tight game it is one more plus for New York rather than Seattle.

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

What can it do to a pitcher's psyche to get out of Denver and Coors Field as your home park? We're about to find out with German Marquez, who makes his first Padres start tonight at Petco Park vs. the Giants after pitching ten seasons with Rockies...and living to tell about it!

More than a few onlookers believe Marquez could prove a steal for San Diego after being so shellshcoked in the Mile High City, bottoming out with a 3-16 mark and 6.70 ERA last season. Now, though, instead of pitching at 5280 feet, his home games are at sea level, and for what it's worth, he looked completely rejuvenated in the Cactus League at Peoria, especially in his final two starts, striking out 17 across just 9 2/3 IP.

The Giants did finally notch their first win for rah-rah new manager Tony Vitello last night, but it was a 3-2 grinder at Petco, which means SF has scored all of four runs across its first four games. Tuesday starter Logan Webb was hit hard in the opener last Wednesday vs. the Yankees and took the loss, allowing seven runs and nine hits in just 5 IP, and note he was winless in three starts (0-2 record) vs. the Padres last season, with a subpar 4.19 ERA. We use SD at +122 and invoke our ".10 rule" to stick with this Padre recommendation as long as the SD price doesn't drop beneath +112. Play Padres on Money Line

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

The Mets took Game 1 of this series last night and will look to run it back behind Kodai Senga, who became famous years ago for his legendary “ghost fork.” Senga ranks in the 96^th percentile in offspeed run value and does a good job keeping hitters on the ground. New York went all in this offseason, and at 3-1 are off to a good start in the early going. As for St. Louis, there just isn’t much production throughout this lineup to generate runs consistently. Andre Pallante had an ERA of 5.31 last season and we’ll watch the boys from Queens pick up another win tonight. Take the Mets -1.

Released/revised 2 hour(s) ago