Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For March 18

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The listed starters are Casey Mize for Detroit and Braxton Ashcraft for Pittsburgh at LECOM Park in Bradenton. Detroit enters at 7-11 with 120 runs scored and 111 allowed in spring, while Pittsburgh is 15-9 with 124 scored and 114 allowed. Forecast for first pitch is around 70°F, hazy sunshine to partly cloudy, which is playable but not the kind of hot Florida weather that adds a major carry boost. LECOM Park is 335 down the lines, 375 to the alleys, 400 to center.

Score projection

Fair odds vs book odds

Reasoning and calculations

1) Spring run environment baseline

This projects as a more balanced game than KC–TEX. Detroit’s spring differential is +9 and Pittsburgh’s is +10, so the raw team-strength gap is small. Pittsburgh has the better record, but Detroit’s run-prevention profile has also held up reasonably well. I start from a near-neutral spring total around 9.6 runs, then distribute from there based on starter quality, expected innings, home field, and late-inning depth.

2) Starting pitcher edge

Casey Mize had a solid 2025 season at 14-6, 3.87 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, but his current spring line is shakier at 0-2, 7.15 ERA, 1.85 WHIP in 11.1 IP, and MLB noted recent mechanical issues plus a fastball that was getting hit hard in his last spring outing.

Braxton Ashcraft posted a stronger 2025 run-prevention profile at 4-4, 2.71 ERA, 71 K in 69.2 IP, and his 2026 spring line is also cleaner at 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 8.0 IP. Pittsburgh has also talked this spring about expanding his sinker usage and refining him for a bigger 2026 role.

Starter adjustment applied:

• Neutral split: DET 4.8 / PIT 4.8

• Ashcraft over Mize: +0.4 PIT, -0.2 DET

• After starter adjustment: DET 4.6 / PIT 5.2
  That is the main reason Pittsburgh gets the edge.

3) Expected innings / first-five weighting

Because this is a late spring game, I projected both starters for roughly 3 to 4 innings, not a normal regular-season leash. Mize threw 67 pitches in his recent spring start, so he can work into the middle innings, but Detroit is unlikely to push him too deep given the mechanical cleanup angle. Ashcraft has worked 8 innings over 3 spring starts, which also points to a controlled but meaningful early-game role. That makes the starter gap matter most in the 1st 5 innings, where I project PIT 2.7, DET 2.1.

4) Batter-vs-pitcher data

Meaningful post-4/15/2025 batter-vs-pitcher samples here are very limited. Ashcraft only debuted in late May 2025, and a lot of the current spring roster bats on both sides either have no sample or only tiny samples against these pitchers. I treated BvP as near-zero weight instead of forcing noise into the model. That is the right move for this specific matchup.

5) Bullpen and farm-system factor

You wanted these weighed heavily in spring, so I did. Both organizations are strong in prospect talent. The Pirates’ system was ranked No. 3 by MLB Pipeline entering 2026 and is led by Konnor Griffin (MLB No. 1) and Bubba Chandler (MLB No. 11). Detroit’s system is also loaded, featuring Kevin McGonigle (MLB No. 2) and Max Clark (MLB No. 10). I grade this area close, but I still give Pittsburgh a slight spring-depth edge because their upper-level pitching pipeline is more immediately relevant to late spring innings in this specific environment.

Bullpen/farm adjustment applied:

• +0.1 PIT

• -0.1 DET

6) Weather and park factor

At roughly 70°F around game time, this is not an extreme offensive weather setup. LECOM Park is fairly standard dimensionally, so I made only a mild run adjustment downward relative to hotter Arizona environments.

Weather/park adjustment applied:

• Total trimmed about 0.2 runs

Bottom line

Full game: PIT 5.1 – 4.5
Fair odds: PIT -121, DET +121
Value: only a small lean to PIT -115

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

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_______

Texas has Kumar Rocker listed as the probable starter, while Kansas City is still TBD for this game. Because KC has not named a starter, I modeled the Royals as a short-start / piggyback / bullpen-game setup.

Score projection

Projected winner: TEX

Fair odds vs book odds

Why the model lands there

1) Spring baseline

Texas has been the much stronger spring club so far:

• Rangers: 14-10, 147 RS / 108 RA in spring

• Royals: 8-15, 135 RS / 150 RA in spring

That gives rough spring per-game baselines of:

• TEX offense: 147 / 24 = 6.13

• TEX defense/pitching allowed: 108 / 24 = 4.50

• KCR offense: 135 / 24 = 5.63

• KCR defense/pitching allowed: 150 / 24 = 6.25

So the raw midpoint baseline before pitcher/context adjustments is:

• KCR expected runs: (5.63 + 4.50) / 2 = 5.06

• TEX expected runs: (6.13 + 6.25) / 2 = 6.19

That is already basically a TEX 6.2 / KCR 5.1 game before further spring-specific weighting.

2) Starting pitching / expected innings

Texas starter: Kumar Rocker

• 2026 spring: 3 G, 8.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

• 2025 regular season: 14 GS, 64.1 IP, 5.74 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Because it is spring and he has only 8.2 innings across 3 appearances, I projected Rocker for roughly 3.0 innings rather than true starter length. His form is good enough to matter early, but not enough for me to price him like a normal regular-season starter.

Kansas City starter: TBD
Since KC still has no listed probable, and recent Royals reporting says the Opening Day rotation is sorting around Ragans / Bubic / Wacha / Lugo / Noah Cameron, I treated this as a likely non-core spring start with quick hook and multiple arms behind it, not a front-end regular-season outing.

3) Batter-vs-pitcher angle

Because KC has not named a starter, there is no valid one-pitcher Royals-vs-Rangers BvP sample to build from for the KC side. On the Texas side, Rocker has only 76.0 MLB career innings and 64.1 innings in 2025, so meaningful post-4/15/2025 head-to-head data versus the current Royals roster is very limited. I treated BvP here as low-signal rather than forcing tiny samples into the model.

4) Bullpen + farm-system weighting

You asked for this to matter a lot, so it did.

Royals spring pitching pool shown on ESPN includes major-league arms like Lucas Erceg, Matt Strahm, John Schreiber, Nick Mears, Eli Morgan, Daniel Lynch IV, but Kansas City’s spring staff overall has still allowed 150 runs, far worse than Texas so far.

Rangers spring pitching pool includes Ryan Brasier, Chris Martin, Josh Sborz, Jacob Latz, Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, MacKenzie Gore, and the club’s spring run prevention has been materially better at 108 runs allowed.

For late innings / prospect factor, I give Texas the edge because MLB Pipeline’s 2026 lists show stronger high-end impact depth on the Rangers side, led by Sebastian Walcott (MLB No. 7) plus a run of highly regarded pitching prospects, while the Royals’ top list is more catcher-heavy at the top.

5) Likely spring lineup quality

The likely regular-core bats are stronger for Texas at the top. MLB’s roster projections center the Rangers around Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford, Corey Seager, Jake Burger, Josh Smith, Josh Jung, while the Royals center around Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Salvador Perez, Jonathan India, Maikel Garcia. Both groups can score, but Texas has had the better spring output and cleaner run-prevention support around them.

6) Weather / park

The game is at Surprise Stadium, and the listed dimensions are 350 down the lines, 379 in the alleys, 400 to center. Weather for Surprise on March 18 shows clear skies and very warm desert conditions, with temperatures reaching the 90s during the day. Warm, dry Arizona air is a mild boost to offense and carry, which fits the higher spring total environment.

Bottom line

1st 5: TEX 3.2 – 2.4
Full game: TEX 6.2 – 5.1
Fair odds: TEX -180, KCR +180
Value vs book: TEX -135

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago