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Teddy Covers
Major League Baseball
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Take New York - San Francisco UNDER (#953-954) (listed pitchers)
The 'Double Gamer' Free Play video below offers my betting opinion for the Mets - Giants and the Braves -Diamondbacks, the only two games on tap for Thursday Night in MLB action. Note that I'm only listing pitchers here because if either guy gets scratched, this total is likely to be adjusted upwards, potentially to 8 or higher. I still like the Under with a different starting pitching matchup, but listing pitchers here ensures that we won't get the worst of the number. Bottom line: neither team is hitting with any level of consistency, both squads struggling to put together quality at bats in early season play. Unders begat more Unders -- cold lineups stay cold until proven otherwise; strong pitching leads to rested and effective bullpens. Expect another UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER.
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Arizona starter Ryne Nelson projects to give up just 2.4 runs with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Atlanta’s lineup has hit just .189 (10-53) with a weak .269 OBP against Nelson in his career. The Braves will start Reynaldo Lopez. The righty projects to give up 2.4 earned runs with a 3.41 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Thursday night.
Play UNDER the total.
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ATL @ ARI — April 2, 2026
Model score: Braves 4.9, Diamondbacks 4.0
The current board is dealing Atlanta as a modest road favorite, roughly ATL -122 to -126 / ARI +104 to +105, with the full-game total split between 8.5 and 9.0. The listed starters are Reynaldo López vs. Ryne Nelson, and the projected lineups are built around Atlanta’s current group led by Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II, and Arizona’s group led by Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Gabriel Moreno and Nolan Arenado.
Atlanta enters at 4-2 and Arizona at 3-3. Atlanta just finished a Wednesday home day game before flying west for this series opener, so a small travel/fatigue downgrade was applied to the Braves’ offense. Arizona stayed home for a Detroit series sweep, so no “returning home off road trip” flat-spot penalty was applied to the Diamondbacks.
Chase Field is a roof park. The Apr. 2 roof setting had not been posted at model lock, while the previous three Arizona home games were listed open. Outside weather was warm, roughly 82°F at 7 PM easing to 75°F by 10 PM, so weather only received a small adjustment because roof uncertainty limits the confidence of any outdoor-only boost.
Model build
No verified in-window batter-vs-pitcher sample from 3/1/2025 through 4/2/2026 was surfaced for either matchup. The pasted Ryne Nelson vs. Atlanta line was from 4/7/2024, so it was excluded from the weighted model.
Reynaldo López expected runs allowed
López’s usable in-window MLB sample is very small: his 2025 Atlanta regular-season line was 5.40 ERA in 5.0 innings, and his 2026 opener was 6.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K. Projection systems around the current season cluster him in the mid-3s to low-4s ERA range, with one current baseline at 3.76. Arizona’s offense has been mid-pack early, but the Diamondbacks are 3-0 at home, and their split-specific clutch line is respectable.
Reynaldo López run-prevention build | Figure | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
Current projection baseline | 3.76 | 35% | 1.32 |
2025 in-window MLB actual | 5.40 | 15% | 0.81 |
2026 opener actual | 1.50 | 20% | 0.30 |
Arizona offense environment | 4.17 | 20% | 0.83 |
Road/travel/park adjustment | +0.18 | — | +0.18 |
Expected RA/9 | 3.44 |
Projected innings: 5 1/3
Projected earned runs: 2.0
Ryne Nelson expected runs allowed
Nelson’s 2025 line was much stronger than López’s, at 7-3 with a 3.39 ERA, 132 strikeouts and a 1.07 WHIP, but his 2026 debut was shaky: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 2 HR allowed. Atlanta’s offense is still carrying a strong early skill profile and the Braves are tied for the most runs over the last 10 games in the current public leaderboard..
Ryne Nelson run-prevention build | Figure | Weight | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
2025 in-window actual | 3.39 | 35% | 1.19 |
2026 opener actual | 7.71 | 20% | 1.54 |
Atlanta offense environment | 4.03 | 25% | 1.01 |
Atlanta recent scoring surge | 4.90 | 10% | 0.49 |
Home adjustment | -0.10 | — | -0.10 |
Chase scoring adjustment | +0.15 | — | +0.15 |
Expected RA/9 | 4.28 |
Projected innings: 4 2/3
Projected earned runs: 2.2
Bullpen adjustment
Atlanta’s relief group rates better. The Braves’ bullpen owns a 3.00 ERA over the last 10 games, while Arizona’s bullpen has shown current leakage, including an 8.25 ERA over the last 3 games. Arizona also used Paul Sewald for saves on consecutive days, and Loáisiga worked Wednesday, while Atlanta got six innings from Chris Sale on Wednesday and had already received a long relief bridge from Martín Pérez on Tuesday. That bullpen gap is the main late-game separator in the model..
Score projection
1st 5 innings boxscore
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
ATL | 2.7 |
ARI | 2.1 |
Total | 4.8 |
Full-game boxscore
Team | Projected runs |
|---|---|
ATL | 4.9 |
ARI | 4.0 |
Total | 8.9 |
Projected starting pitcher boxscore
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reynaldo López | 5 1/3 | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | 2 |
Ryne Nelson | 4 2/3 | 2.2 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore
Atlanta
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ronald Acuña Jr. | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Drake Baldwin | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Matt Olson | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Austin Riley | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Mike Yastrzemski | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ozzie Albies | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Michael Harris II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Dominic Smith | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Mauricio Dubón | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 37 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
Arizona
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ketel Marte | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Corbin Carroll | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Geraldo Perdomo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Gabriel Moreno | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nolan Arenado | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Alek Thomas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Carlos Santana | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Jose Fernandez | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Jordan Lawlar | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Total | 35 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
Wager & Probability Analysis (model-driven)
Moneyline
Team | Model win % | Fair odds | Consensus odds | Consensus minus fair | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL | 59.2% | -145 | -124 | +21 cents | Value |
ARI | 40.8% | +145 | +104 | -41 cents | No value |
Tokyo’s Clutch Index
OPS with a runner on 3rd base and fewer than 2 outs, 2026 season to date. Atlanta ranks 8th and Arizona ranks 11th on the current split leaderboard..
Team | Rank | OPS |
|---|---|---|
ATL | 8 | .721 |
ARI | 11 | .713 |
Team component ranks
Category | ATL rank (1-30) | ARI rank (1-30) |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher this season | 12 | 24 |
Bullpen last 10 days | 3 | 23 |
Lineup run production last 10 days | 2 | 15 |
Final read
Market | Model verdict |
|---|---|
Moneyline | ATL value |
Most likely score band: Braves 5-4.
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Adam Trigger
Major League Baseball
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No Under The Radar today because we only have three MLB games and we went into detail on all three on Total Bases.
Full breakdowns with side, total and prop suggestions in the replay below!
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Backing David Peterson and the Mets in the battle of southpaws Thursday night. The Mets have a sizable offensive edge over the struggling Giants bats. San Francisco ranks bottom 5 in all of baseball in a bunch of key offensive metrics. The 25 cents is short. Bet the Mets.
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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Off yesterday's 1-0 victory, the Diamondbacks have won three straight. They've also taken six of the past eight meetings vs. the Braves, including each of the past four. Half of those eight games, including the most recent Atlanta win, were decided by a single run. Nelson's numbers from his first game weren't great but keep in mind that he was on the road, against the Dodgers. He was the Dbax top starting arm last season. He was 5-1 with a 2.71 ERA at home last season and he recently closed out a solid spring with a dominant effort in his final start. The Dbax played here in Arizona yesterday while the Braves played in Atlanta. In what may be another close one, let's grab the extra +1.5 runs with Nelson and the Diamondbacks. *good to -165
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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Maybe all it took for the D-backs was to get out of LA and back home to Chase Field to get straightened out. Sweeping three from the Tigers in Phoenix was a good way for Arizona to get back to .500 and on track again.
After the offense erupted for 16 runs across the first two games of the Detroit series, it was a good old fashioned pitching diuel on Wednesday when Zac Gallen outdueled Tarik Skubal in a 1-0 D-backs triumph thanks to a Corbin Carroll homer. The hot bat at the moment surely belongs to Carroll, too, after he knocked in seven runs across the three-game sweep of the Tigers.
Ryne Nelson, roughed up by the Dodgers last Friday, should look forward to pitching at home tonight after posting a 2.71 ERA at Chase last season, while we see how the Braves fare on the road after opening with six games at home. We also need more evidence than one good start vs. a misfiring Royals offense last week that starter Reynoldo Lopez is all of the way back from last year's shoulder surgery. We use D-backs +103, so invoke our ".10 rule" here to stick with the Arizona pick as long as it doesn't move more than .10 (that would be -107) from our price. Play D-backs on Money Line
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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It was just a few years ago that Reynaldo Lopez dazzled the league with a stellar ERA and a wOBA of .271. He was out for essentially all of last season but has started 2026 looking like his old self, allowing just 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings in his season debut. The Braves as a team are playing well also, winning both series thus far as they take the trip to Arizona. Ryne Nelson was tagged for 4 runs with 3 walks in just over 4 innings against the Dodgers. Nelson shows flashes of strong stuff but is too inconsistent. He’ll make some mistakes in the zone as Atlanta takes the opener. Take the Braves.
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!