Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For May 16

(957) Texas Rangers at (958) Houston Astros: Total

First Inning Under 0.5 (-135) Jacob deGrom (RHP), Kai-Wei Teng (RHP) Must Start

Texas has scored a first-inning run only once in their L8 games

Houston has failed to score a first-inning run in 8 straight games

While deGrom has a 2.62 ERA and Teng has a 3.12 ERA, they are each only 50% NRFI, which keeps this from being a client release.

Released/revised 29 minute(s) ago

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Los Angeles used eight relievers in last night’s 6-0 win over the Angels, which is significant because MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 684-424 (61.7%; +3% ROI), including 393-238 (62.3%; +2.8% ROI) since 2016, winning by an average margin of 1.1 runs per game. The Dodgers’ pitching staff has compiled elite metrics this season: 3.32 ERA (3rd), 3.57 xERA (4th), 3.45 FIP (3rd), 9.18 K/9 (5th), 2.92 BB/9 (2nd), and 7.0 WAR (2nd). Los Angeles southpaw Justin Wrobleski doesn’t possess overpowering stuff (4.43 K/9), but he has excellent control (2.22 BB/9) and keeps the ball in play (0.40 HR/9). Wrobleski allowed 7 runs in his last outing against the Braves, which is relevant because MLB road favorites with starting pitchers coming off an outing in which they allowed seven or more runs are 178-111 (61.6%; +7.8% ROI) versus .499 or worse opponents, including 70-37 (65.4%; +13.7% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of 1.5 runs per game. Finally, the Dodgers are 34-13 (72.3%; +17% ROI) since September 1, 2021, as favorites in games with totals of fewer than ten runs following a shutout win. Take the Los Angeles Dodgers as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Saturday, May 16.

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Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

The Cubs are rolling once again, putting a 10 spot on the South Side to open their weekend set. They’ve now scored the 3^rd most runs in baseball and rank 4^th in OPS as Jameson Taillon gets ready to take the mound. Taillon allowed 1 run on 4 hits last time out against Texas, and we’re getting a nice price due to Davis Martin being on the other side. Martin has taken his game to another level, but he does have some concerning metrics the Cubs can exploit. His hard hit rate is well above league average at 45.7%, and he’s a fly ball pitcher with a high exit velo. Things also favor the North Side late, as the White Sox have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Take the Cubs.

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NYY @ NYM — 5/16/2026

Game: NYY at NYM, Citi Field, 7:15 PM ET.
Projected starters: Carlos Rodón, LHP, for NYY; Huascar Brazobán, RHP opener for NYM.

Rodón’s 2026 MLB sample is only one start after returning from elbow surgery, so the projection blends his 2025 full-season baseline with the command risk from his season debut. His 2026 line is 4.1 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 6.23 ERA, 1.62 WHIP. His 2025 line was much stronger: 18-9, 3.09 ERA, 195.1 IP, 203 K, 1.05 WHIP.

Brazobán is not a normal starter. His current line is strong — 18 G, 2-1, 2.14 ERA, 21.0 IP, 16 K, 0.95 WHIP — but he has only two starts and is expected to work as an opener, with David Peterson available in a bulk role. That shifts the Mets projection toward bullpen-game volatility instead of a full-starter profile.

Batter-vs-pitcher history favors NYM only slightly. Rodón faced the Mets twice in the current window: 5.0 IP, 1 ER on May 16, 2025, then 5.0 IP, 6 ER on July 5, 2025. Combined current-window line: 10.0 IP, 7 H, 8 ER, 7 BB, 9 K, 2 HR. Brazobán has no meaningful current-window sample against the projected Yankees lineup, so that side is treated neutral.

Projected lineups remain projected rather than confirmed. NYY projected order: Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Amed Rosario, Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, J.C. Escarra. NYM projected order: Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, Juan Soto, Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Marcus Semien, Tyrone Taylor, Austin Slater, Luis Torrens. Citi Field projects around 74°F with 15 mph wind and no listed precipitation risk.

Recent form is mixed. NYY won Friday’s opener 5-2 behind Cam Schlittler, with Ben Rice homering and Jazz Chisholm Jr. collecting three hits. NYY has 43 runs over its last 10 games, while NYM has 48 runs over its last 10 but was held to two runs Friday. Mets injury/fatigue context matters because Clay Holmes suffered a fractured fibula Friday, removing a strong rotation piece and forcing the club deeper into contingency pitching.

Bullpen read: NYY has a recent bullpen snapshot of #10 power rank, 18.0 IP previous seven days, 4.50 ERA. NYM’s relief group has been better on recent run prevention, with multiple scoreless recent relievers, but Brazobán’s opener usage pushes more innings onto the pen. Citi Field is treated as slightly pitcher-friendly overall, trimming total run expectation.

Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs

1-30 matchup rank chart

Final boxscore projection

Projected final: NYY 5.0, NYM 4.2

Released/revised 4 hour(s) ago

Halos on the 3 inning moneyline plus price is how we are attacking the "Freeway Series" on Saturday night. The Angels starter Soriano has been a money maker for us this season. He has over 60 strikeouts with a sub (1.70 ERA) on the year and is (6-2) to this point in the season. His opposition, the southpaw Wrobleski is a weak link in the Dodgers rotation and has managed only 22 strikeouts in 44 innings.

The reason this is only a free pick is because I am not sure how widely available the 3 inning line is with my clients. As it is somewhat correlated with the full game line, although important in this situation to minimize the Dodgers offensive prowess over the Angels. All that being said, the Dodgers are somewhat cold right now averaging less than 3 runs a game over the last week and the Angels are a top 10 lineup across baseball vs lefties. This one missed the client card for Saturday- For the free pick bet Angels 1st 3 innings.

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Released/revised 15 hour(s) ago

With much better entrance prices, this Battle of the Beltways in D.C. should outdraw the Preakness at nearby Laurel this afternoon. On the diamond, perhaps we have to look no further than the fact the Birds have won six straight starts made by Chris Bassitt, while the Nats have lost seven of the last eight starts made by Bassitt’s Saturday foe, Cade Cavalli.

Though the O’s lost 3-2 last night in D.C., it has been a mostly-encouraging week for Baltimore, whose pitchers seem to have finally gotten the message, allowing only 11 runs across the past five games (which includes a series win over the Yankees). Play Orioles on Money Line

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago