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Tokyo Brandon
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LAD at COL Projection
The game is set for Sunday, April 19, 2026 at Coors Field, with Roki Sasaki starting for Los Angeles and Michael Lorenzen for Colorado. The live board showed Dodgers -293, Rockies +234, and a total of 11.0 to 11.5, with 11.5 shaded near even on the over and slight juice on the under. Conditions project much better for offense than the freezing opener of the series: around 58-65°F, mostly clear, and playable air in Denver.
The core run environment is still Coors-first. Los Angeles has been the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching so far, with a .786 OPS, while Colorado has been more middle-of-the-pack against righties at .688. The Dodgers also entered in much better current form, with 58 runs over their last 10 games, while the Rockies had 37 over their last 10.
The starting-pitching matchup is a blend of ceiling and volatility. Sasaki entered with a 6.23 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 15 strikeouts, and only 13.0 innings, and his 2026 splits show more trouble in day games and in April. Lorenzen entered with an 8.10 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, 13 strikeouts, and 16.2 innings, which is the weaker current baseline of the two. Neither side had a usable in-window batter-vs-pitcher history surfaced for this specific matchup, so direct head-to-head weight stays light.
Bullpen and team-form context lean hard toward Los Angeles. The Dodgers have the best team ERA in baseball over the last 10 games at 2.43 with a 1.00 WHIP in that span, while the Rockies sat 17th by team ERA over the last 10. Los Angeles also won Friday’s opener 7-1 and has been one of the hottest teams in the league overall, while Colorado entered 3-7 over its last 10.
The expected lineup core used here leans on the active Dodgers regulars around Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Andy Pages, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernández, Max Muncy, and Dalton Rushing, with Colorado built around Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, Tyler Freeman, Brenton Doyle, and the current active regular group. Saturday’s confirmed Dodgers lineup showed Ohtani, Tucker, Pages, Freeman, Hernández, Muncy, and Rushing together, and ESPN’s game preview listed Muncy and Moniak as the home-run leaders for the two clubs entering Sunday.
The model starts from a high total because of Coors Field and Lorenzen’s current baseline, then trims slightly because Sasaki still has enough swing-and-miss to keep Colorado from fully breaking loose. It also avoids a no-bottom-9th suppression because Los Angeles is the road team, making a full nine innings more likely than in a home-favorite setup. The result is a Dodgers win projection with a total almost exactly on the market.
Projected Score
Segment | LAD | COL | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
1st 5 innings | 4.0 | 2.4 | 6.4 |
Full game | 7.1 | 4.5 | 11.6 |
Projected Starting Pitcher Boxscores
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Roki Sasaki | 5 0/3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen | 4 1/3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
Projected LAD Hitter Boxscore
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Shohei Ohtani | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Kyle Tucker | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Andy Pages | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Freddie Freeman | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Teoscar Hernández | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Max Muncy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Dalton Rushing | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Hyeseong Kim | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Tommy Edman | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Projected COL Hitter Boxscore
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Freeman | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Mickey Moniak | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Hunter Goodman | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Brenton Doyle | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Kris Bryant | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Nolan Jones | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Ezequiel Tovar | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jacob Stallings | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Jordan Beck | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Wager & Probability Analysis (Model-Driven)
Market | Consensus odds | Model win / hit % | Fair odds | Consensus minus projected | Value | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LAD moneyline | -293 | 72.5% | -264 | -29 cents | No value | 3 |
COL moneyline | +234 | 27.5% | +264 | -30 cents | No value | 3 |
Full game over 11.5 | -108 | 50.6% | -102 | +6 cents | Small value | 2 |
Full game under 11.5 | -112 | 49.4% | +102 | -10 cents | No value | 2 |
Full game over 11.0 | around -108 equivalent | 53.3% non-push | -114 | Small value | Small value | 2 |
Full game under 11.0 | around -112 equivalent | 46.7% non-push | +114 | No value | No value | 2 |
Tokyo's Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank | OPS |
|---|---|---|
LAD | 1 | .786 |
COL | 21 | .688 |
Two-Team Ranking Snapshot
Category | LAD | COL |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve rank | Roki Sasaki: 25th | Michael Lorenzen: 30th |
Bullpen last 10 days ERA+WHIP curve rank | 1st | 17th |
Lineup run production last 10 days curve rank | 2nd | 21st |
Bottom Line
The game projects almost exactly where the market is already sitting. The strongest lean is a small over position at 11.5.
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Steve Merril
Major League Baseball
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Los Angeles starter Reid Detmers projects to give up 2.8 runs with a 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. San Diego’s lineup has hit a solid .323 (10-31) with a strong .976 OPS against Detmers in his career. The Padres will start Michael King. The righty projects to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.343 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. With the starting pitching clearly in San Diego’s favor, look for the Padres to get a solid road win on Sunday afternoon.
Play PADRES (-).
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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The Giants are emitting some streaky vibes this season and right now are in the midst of a definite uptick, winning four in a row. A four-game sweep in DC is the reward for another win on Sunday, and starter Robbie Ray (2.42 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) is certainly pitching well enough to trust.
Meanwhile, the struggling Nats are only 1-7 at home in Washington and today will risk ex-Card Miles Mikolas, bypassed in the rotation last week at Pittsburgh because of his woeful 11.49 ERA and 2.17 WHIP. Play Giants on Run Line
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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The Astros have not gotten off to the best start this season, but they are scoring. Houston ranks top 5 in both runs scored and batting average as of Saturday evening, with another great opportunity to put up a crooked number against Matthew Liberatore, who has given up 4 earned in back to back starts. Mike Burrows has been even worse, most recently getting knocked around for 6 earned on 11 hits against Seattle. The Astros also have the worst bullpen in all of baseball in terms of ERA and St. Louis isn’t far behind. Take the OVER.
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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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2% KC/NYY under 8 (-115)
Good to -125
CZR
This will likely close 7.5. Yanks and Royals are two of the worst teams vs LHP so far this year. Both Ragans and Weathers project to have excellent outings. Model projection 7.1
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What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? Â If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
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Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. Â They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, Â the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
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Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. Â 116 games in 1906. Nuts. Â They went 116-36. Â The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. Â The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. Â The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.Â
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Â Indeed it has! Â And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.Â
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Â Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Â Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. Â 10 World Series titles!
