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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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last 2 seasons:
Mitch Keller |
NYM |
2-1, 2.21 ERA, 18 K in 3 appearances |
Bottom line: I project Mitch Keller for 17.2 outs against the Mets on Saturday, March 28, 2026. He’s listed as the Pirates’ starter in a 4:10 PM ET day game at Citi Field against David Peterson.
Calculation stack
1) All starts, 3/1/2025–3/28/2026 — weighted 30%
Keller made 32 starts in 2025 and averaged 5.51 innings per game, which is 16.5 outs per start.
2) Vs. Mets in that window — weighted 50%
Keller made two 2025 starts against the Mets:
May 13, 2025: 7.0 IP = 21 outs
June 27, 2025: 5.1 IP = 16 outs
That is 37 outs in 2 starts = 18.5 outs per start.
3) March starts in that window — weighted 20%
Keller’s March 2025 split shows 1 start, 6.0 IP, which is 18 outs.
Base weighted projection
Overall bucket: 16.5 × 30% = 5.0
Vs. Mets bucket: 18.5 × 50% = 9.3
March bucket: 18.0 × 20% = 3.6
Base weighted projection = 17.8 outs
Adjustments
Road split: Keller’s 2025 road split was 80.2 IP in 15 road starts = 16.0 outs/start, below his 16.5 overall average, so I dock -0.5 outs.
Day split: Keller’s 2025 day split was 66.2 IP in 12 day starts = 16.6 outs/start, basically neutral to his overall baseline, so I leave this at 0.0 outs.
Ballpark factor: 0.0 outs
Fatigue / build-up: Keller’s final spring outing on March 22 was 3 2/3 innings, but MLB also reported that Keller will be treated as a regular starter this season. I apply only a small -0.1 outs opening-week leash adjustment.
Final projection
17.8 base
- 0.5 road
+ 0.0 day
+ 0.0 park
- 0.1 build-up
Final projected outs: 17.2
That is 1.7 outs above the line of 15.5
Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Jumping on the Padres in Petco on Saturday night against the Tigers. Really top notch pitching matchup between Flaherty and Vasquez. Hearing a ton of positives about the Friars starter that I believe is a bit underrated heading into the 2026 season. Something to take a small bite on. This missed the client card, but for today's MLB free pick- Bet San Diego as the home dog.
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?Â
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? Â If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
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Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. Â They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, Â the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
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Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. Â 116 games in 1906. Nuts. Â They went 116-36. Â The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. Â The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. Â The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.Â
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Â Indeed it has! Â And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.Â
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Â Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Â Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. Â 10 World Series titles!