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Bryan Leonard
Major League Baseball
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909 Houston at Seattle
After starting the season on fire offensively, the Astros have reentered the earth’s atmosphere as of late. That said, Houston still ranks #2 in baseball in wRC+ on the season at 139. League average comes in at an even 100. The only team hotter is the Angels at 143. Seattle by comparison is 18th at 96 in wRC+.
Seattle is also the most unlucky team in the league, with seven wins, but they should have 9.6 expected based on hit sequencing. We also favor the Mariners bullpen, which keeps this a first five selection.
Mike Burrows is a pitcher than isn’t a household name, as he had been pitching for the Pirates. But the Astros brass really liked him, and they do a very good job of developing pitchers.
We know all about George Kirby, and he is especially good in this park. But the betting value is on the Astros in the early going, as runs will be at a premium.
PLAY HOUSTON 1H
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Andy Lang
Major League Baseball
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Gavin Williams UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed
Williams has been dominant to start the season, allowing just 2, 2, and 1 hits across his first three starts. That level of suppression isn’t fluky—he’s clearly commanding his stuff and keeping hitters off balance.
The matchup helps as well. St. Louis ranks just 22nd in batting average at .224, showing they’re not consistently squaring the ball up.
With Williams limiting contact at an elite level and facing a below-average offense, this number is simply too high.
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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Cleveland Guardians (-114) Gavin Williams Must Start
Cleveland starter Gavin Williams is a guy we have been looking to bet this season. The hard throwing righty has racked up 25 strikeouts in his 17 innings of work so far this season and has letup just 1 run and 3 hits over his last 2 starts.
The Red Birds have gotten blown out in each of their last two games, letting up 16 runs in the process to the Red Sox. Now up against the 1st place Guardians with Williams on the hill is a tough situation to turn it around. This just missed the Monday client card. For today's free pick- Bet Cleveland.
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5% MONDAY "MAX LIMIT" MLB BEST BET (1st of 2026): $35.00
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Teddy Covers
Major League Baseball
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Take Texas FIRST FIVE INNINGS (#915) (listed pitchers)
The Rangers went 6-0 vs the Athletics after the All Star Break last year, and I’m expecting more of the same here. This is no ‘bet-on’ spot for the home team, flying across the country following their best trip to New York City in decades. Luis Severino has been awful pitching in Sacramento to the tune of a 2-9 record and ERA above 6.00 at Sutter Health Park last year; and he wasn’t shy about complaining about the park or the facilities. Severino’s command issues -- 13 walks in 15 innings of work this season -- sure looks like a problem to this bettor! Meanwhile, Nate Eovaldi is coming off a gem against Seattle and he held the Athletics to a single run in his lone start against them last year. Let’s not worry about the bullpens here (or the Athletics propensity for late game rallies) and get in and out with a five inning wager. Take the Rangers FIRST FIVE INNINGS.
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66% MLB Heater! 60% MLB Totals! Monday $$: $25.00
Teddy has hit better than 60% with his MLB Totals since last October and he’s at 60% with his MLB totals here in April, part of his 66% MLB Heater that dates back to September, 2025! Do Not Miss Teddy’s Top Total tonight, his single Best Bet in MLB action for Monday! Get it now!
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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81.8% (9-2) 5% TOP PLAY RUN!
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5% MLB RED HOT 81.8% (9-2) RUN! : $35.00
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Dwayne Bryant
Major League Baseball
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Key Situational Angle:
In the fourth game of an intraleague series, play AGAINST AL road teams if it's between Game #14 and Game #158, theyve either won at least 6 straight or lost at least 6 straight, the line is not -105 or worse, and the teams previous opponent's biggest lead was not 1 run.
Applies to Houston.
41-4 (91%) since the 2004 season, good for a 41% ROI.
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FIRST MLB PLAY OF 2026: $25.00
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Las Vegas Cris
Major League Baseball
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2% MIA/ATL under 8.5 (-120)
Good to 8 -105
MGM/FD/CZR
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Jeff Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(903) Washington Nationals at (904) Pittsburgh Pirates: James Wood Hits + Runs + RBIs
James Wood Hits + Runs + RBIs Over 1.5 (145)
Performance Analysis:
Recent Dominance: James Wood has been in exceptional form, going over his hits+runs+RBIs number in 7 consecutive games. This streak underscores his significantly impact on his team's offensive efforts.
Impressive Statistics: Since April 5th, Wood has accumulated a remarkable 34 hits+runs+RBIs over those 7 games, averaging nearly 4.9 hits+runs+RBIs per game. This level of production is noteworthy and demonstrates his offensive prowess during this stretch.
Batting Average: Wood is hitting an outstanding .500 (13 hits in 26 at-bats), showcasing his ability to consistently reach base and put himself in a position to score, if not driving himself in at the same time.
Contribution to Scoring: In addition to his high batting average, Wood has scored 10 runs and driven in 11 RBIs during this span. His ability to both set the table and drive in runs makes him a dual threat in the lineup, especially when either avenue can help cash this bet.
Power Numbers: Wood has demonstrated power in his offensive game, blasting 4 home runs and hitting 3 doubles during this period. These numbers not only reflect his ability to drive himself in but also indicate that he creates favorable RBI opportunities for his teammates.
Conclusion
James Wood is clearly on a hot streak, making him a compelling player to monitor for upcoming games. His recent production, highlighted by both consistency and power, offers multiple pathways for him to exceed expectations in terms of hits+runs+RBIs. Betting on Wood to continue this trend appears to be a favorable option, given his current form and ability to impact the game both with his bat, on the base paths and in scoring situations.
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MONDAY MLB ACTION! #2 YTD (+53.4%): $25.00
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Ralph Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(919) Cleveland Guardians at (920) St. Louis Cardinals: Total
First Inning Under +0.5 (-135) Gavin Williams (RHP), Matthew Liberatore (LHP) Must Start
I did pass on client plays as no play was worthy and we will not force action.
Most matchups are YRFI teams vs NRFI teams but this was closest to be a play.
Cleveland has scored a first inning run on twice in 11 games.
St Louis has scored a first inning run only once in their L11.
The starters are 5-1 NRFI.
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THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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PLEASE NOTE: THE MLB STAT SHEET WILL NOT LOADED NEXT WEEK AS I AM TRAVELING. THE DAILY FREE FIRST INNING PLAYS WILL BE POSTED - wt.buzz/rm! First-Inning Report for Sunday, April 12The WagerTalk First Inning Report from Ralph Michaels is your daily cheat sheet for YRFI/NRFI betting. Full game lines and totals with teams that scored in the first ...
Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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CHC at PHI —
Chicago arrives after a Sunday home game against Pittsburgh and a prior 11-inning game on April 11, so a small travel/fatigue deduction was applied to the Cubs’ bats. Philadelphia is already settled into a home stand; this is not a same-day return-home flat spot off the road, so no special homecoming penalty was applied to the Phillies..
Cristopher Sánchez brings the stronger current skill base: 1.65 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and 4 walks in 16.1 innings this season, after a 2.50 ERA season in 2025 and a dominant 1.94 home ERA in 2025. His 2026 split has been much better by day than by night, but the larger 2025-26 body of work still grades him clearly above average here. Javier Assad has only 5.2 MLB innings in 2026, all scoreless, after a much smaller 2025 MLB sample, so the raw 0.00 ERA was regressed heavily; the working expectation is closer to a mid-3s true-talent run-prevention line over about five-plus innings than to his current zero.
Citizens Bank Park remains a slightly offense-leaning run environment in the recent park-factor tables, and the mild wind-out setup prevented the total from drifting lower. J.T. Realmuto’s day-to-day foot issue slightly trims the Phillies’ offensive projection, while the Cubs’ expected order still shows Matt Shaw in the lineup after Michael Busch sat Sunday.
Run model
Team | Baseline runs | Key adjustments | Final projected runs |
|---|---|---|---|
CHC | 4.1 | road/travel -0.2, recent vs LHP -0.2, Sánchez home/skill -0.4, park/weather +0.2, Phillies bullpen +0.1 | 3.6 |
PHI | 4.0 | home +0.1, vs RHP +0.2, Assad regression +0.2, Cubs bullpen -0.2, Realmuto health -0.1, park/weather +0.1, no-bottom-9 -0.0 to -0.1 | 4.3 |
Projected score
Segment | CHC | PHI |
|---|---|---|
First 5 innings | 2.0 | 2.5 |
Full game | 3.6 | 4.3 |
Projected winner: Philadelphia
Starting pitcher boxscore projection
Pitcher | IP | ER | H | K | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Assad (CHC) | 5 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | 6 1/3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
Projected hitter boxscore
Expected batting orders are based on the listed Monday lineups.
Chicago hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nico Hoerner | 4.5 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
Alex Bregman | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
Seiya Suzuki | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Carson Kelly | 3.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
Ian Happ | 4.0 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Dansby Swanson | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Matt Shaw | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Miguel Amaya | 3.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Philadelphia hitters
Hitter | AB | BB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trea Turner | 4.6 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
Kyle Schwarber | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
Bryce Harper | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.9 |
Brandon Marsh | 3.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 |
Bryson Stott | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
Adolis Garcia | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.4 |
J.T. Realmuto | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 |
Alec Bohm | 4.0 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
Justin Crawford | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
30-point curve board
Category | CHC | PHI | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA+WHIP curve (current season, sample-adjusted) | 23/30 Assad | 22/30 Sánchez | CHC raw rate edge, PHI larger sample |
Bullpen form last 10 days (ERA + WHIP composite) | 3.82 (2.73 ERA + 1.09 WHIP) | 4.35 (3.17 ERA + 1.18 WHIP) | CHC |
Lineup production last 10 days (runs + estimated wOBA input) | 35 runs / ~.284 wOBA | 36 runs / ~.314 wOBA | PHI |
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MLB Feature 3 Bet Package $19 | SCORCHING 14-2 RUN | 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper
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Tokyo Brandon just released 3 feature bets in MLB Monday for $19 (normally $45), and these are the best value spots on the board. Tokyo Brandon is on a 14-2 BASEBALL RUN! As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If yo ...
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Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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As expected, Paul Skenes has made a recovery since his first start went all wrong vs. the Mets on March 26; Skenes has won each of his next two starts, with his ERA predictably starting to drop after allowing just one run each to the Reds and Padres, and his ERA 1.59 in two April starts.
Skenes also kept the Nats in check in his one start vs. them last season, allowing just 1 ER and 3 hits across 6 IP while recording a win almost a year ago to the day (April 14. 2025). Last season, Skenes also consistently fired live ammunition at PNC Park, where he recorded a 1.77 ERA across fifteen starts.
This one might not be easy for Skenes and the Bucs, however, as Washington enters Pittsburgh after sweeping (quite unexpectedly) at Milwaukee, and Cade Cavalli off of a couple of impressive starts and a 1.69 ERA those last two. The bullpen also showed better on the weekend vs. the Brewers. As the Skenes factor suggests this one might be low-scoring tonight, we use "under" 7.5 with the best price we could find (-122) on the overnights, though we're already near the high-end of value and wouldn't be too keen to lay more than -125 on the "under" at PNC Park. Play Nats-Pirates “Under”
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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Major value with the Cubs today as they ride the momentum of a dramatic come from behind victory against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Chicago is being priced as a big underdog against a Phillies team that’s lost 4 of their past 5. Philly has yet to show much run production this season, as they’ve score the 3rd fewest runs in baseball year to date. Sure, they have Cristopher Sanchez taking the mound, but Sanchez gave up 4 runs on 11 hits last time out against the struggling Giants. Javier Assad is scheduled to make his 2nd start for the North Side, and he didn’t allow a run on just 1 hit through 5.2 innings in his season debut. We’ll play the number here with Chicago at the nice plus price. Take the Cubs.
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Looking for free MLB picks from professional Major League Baseball Handicappers? Wagertalk's expert handicappers provide top daily MLB expert picks at absolutely no charge.
Free MLB Picks - 2026 MLB Picks and Predictions From Experts
Here you can find free MLB expert betting picks from WagerTalk's elite team of handicappers. Detailed game previews, analysis, and predictions backed by statistics. Get going with 100% FREE hot MLB picks of the day - get an edge.
Run Line Picks, Moneylines, MLB Props, MLB Parlays from WagerTalk:
WagerTalk offers you free MLB predictions and betting picks every day of 2026 for MLB games - from the Pirates to the Giants to.. well, every team in Major League Baseball. And don't forget our daily HR Props!
What Free MLB Picks Does WagerTalk Offer In 2026?
WagerTalk offers every type of MLB expert picks you could possibly want. At WagerTalk you'll find daily free MLB picks that include:
Moneyline MLB Picks Free:
Naturally. You have to offer moneyline picks and WagerTalk certainly does for MLB.
Free MLB RunLine Picks:
You'll find MLB runline picks galore at WagerTalk. So what is the runline and why should you bet on it? Well, simple!
The runline is baseball's version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Truly, the runline is the great equalizer - it's just a little easier to place a bet when you've got a 2 run head start, right?
WagerTalk's expert MLB handicappers are runline prediction masterminds.
Totals Betting Best Picks for MLB:
Total runs betting picks are an absolute staple of WagerTalk MLB handicappers. A major component of how to bet on baseball, a total runs wager is super straightforward, as the customer is picking whether the two teams will score over or under the listed number of runs combined during the game. The great part of a total runs pick is that you're basically just rooting for a ton of scoring. Everybody loves that.
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WagerTalk offers MLB player props for hitters throughout the year. A great betting market, you're simply betting on how a specific batter will perform during a game - the perfect market to bet if you're more of a player of an MLB hitter than an MLB team. Find even more free MLB picks and player props at our sister site.
Our daily HR home prop article is the most popular such article online!
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Now and then you can find MLB same game parlay picks from expert MLB handicappers at WagerTalk.
Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!