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Probable starters are Brandon Williamson (CIN) and George Kirby (SEA) for Sunday, March 15, 2026 at Peoria Stadium.
Cincinnati has been the much stronger spring club so far. The Reds enter this game 12-9, 4-6 away, with 134 runs scored and 135 allowed. Seattle is 5-16-1, 3-9 at home, with 108 scored and 165 allowed. On a per-game basis, that is:
Using a neutral matchup average from those spring scoring rates:
CIN raw expected runs = (CIN offense 6.38 + SEA defense 7.50) / 2 = 6.94
SEA raw expected runs = (SEA offense 4.91 + CIN defense 6.43) / 2 = 5.67
Then I adjusted those raw baselines:
For Cincinnati, I trimmed the raw number down from 6.94 to 6.3 because George Kirby is still the better established pitcher than the Mariners’ ugly overall spring RA would imply. Kirby’s 2025 MLB line was 10-8, 4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and his current spring line is 4.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. That is not peak Kirby, but it is still a higher-quality starter baseline than most cactus-league innings. I also give Seattle a late-game boost from the stronger farm system, which keeps Cincinnati from running away with the full-game projection.
For Seattle, I shaved the raw number from 5.67 to 5.5. Williamson’s spring line is stronger than Kirby’s right now: 7.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 0.71 WHIP. His broader MLB résumé is much thinner, and ESPN’s surfaced line is only a 2024 sample, but it was respectable at 3.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. Because it is spring training, I do not project him deep; his current 7.0 spring innings suggest something like 2.5-3.0 innings here, while Kirby’s 4.1 spring innings suggest more like 2.0-2.5 innings. That gives Cincinnati a small first-five edge from starter readiness alone. The reason Seattle still gets to 5.5 is that Peoria weather is warm and dry, and the Mariners’ farm system is much stronger than Cincinnati’s entering 2026, which matters a lot once the regulars start evaporating and the game turns into prospect soup.
The prospect-depth gap is real. Seattle’s preseason MLB Pipeline list is headlined by Colt Emerson (MLB No. 9), Kade Anderson (No. 21), Ryan Sloan (No. 33), Lazaro Montes (No. 43), and Michael Arroyo (No. 67). Cincinnati’s top end is good but lighter: Sal Stewart (No. 22), Alfredo Duno (No. 38), Steele Hall (No. 83), and Rhett Lowder (No. 86). That is one of the main reasons I keep the Mariners competitive in the full-game projection even though their spring record and run differential are ugly.
Market comparison
Market | Team | Market proxy | Projected win % | Fair odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Full game | CIN | 48% / about +108 | 56.2% | -128 | CIN value |
Full game | SEA | 53% / about -113 | 43.8% | +128 | SEA overpriced |
1st 5 | CIN | n/a | 60.4% | -153 | playable at -153 or better |
1st 5 | SEA | n/a | 39.6% | +153 | playable only at +153 or better |
Bottom line
Reds 6.3-5.5 full game. Cincinnati gets the edge from the much better spring scoring profile, Seattle’s ugly run-prevention to this point, and Williamson looking a little more stretched out than Kirby right now. Seattle’s rescue rope is its stronger prospect system, which is why I stop well short of making this some monster Reds price. If the real book is still near a coin flip, Cincinnati is the value side.
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What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? Â If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
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Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. Â They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, Â the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
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Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. Â 116 games in 1906. Nuts. Â They went 116-36. Â The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. Â The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. Â The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.Â
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Yogi Berra. Â Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. Â 10 World Series titles!