Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For March 29

I project Cubs 6.0, Nationals 3.7.

That makes Chicago the right side, but not a value side at the current price. The biggest drivers are Jake Irvin’s very poor recent history against the Cubs, Washington’s shaky early-season relief work, Wrigley’s favorable hitting conditions, and the Cubs’ lineup edge at home. The main thing holding the total down from an even bigger number is that Shota Imanaga is the best arm in the game and Washington already showed on Opening Day it can string together offense if Chicago’s starter loses command.

Verified setup

MLB lists Jake Irvin (WSN) at Shota Imanaga (CHC) for Sunday, March 29, 2026 at Wrigley Field. Publicly visible market pricing showed the Cubs around -237 and the Nationals around +195, with a full-game total of 9.5. Wrigley weather is a factor: Action showed roughly 56°F, and RotoWire’s weather page for the Chicago game showed wind blowing out at about 10 mph, which is a meaningful scoring boost at this park.

RotoWire’s projected lineups showed Washington with James Wood, A. Chaparro, Brady House, Daylen Lile, Joey Wiemer, CJ Abrams, Nasim Nuñez, Keibert Ruiz, Jacob Young, and Chicago with Michael Busch, Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, Carson Kelly plus the rest of the expected order.

Starter component

Jake Irvin

Using the H2H sample you supplied, Irvin has been hit hard by the Cubs since 2024: 17.0 IP, 25 H, 22 ER, 7 HR, 12 BB, 14 K, which is an 11.65 ERA. In the two starts inside your requested window, he allowed 3 ER in 5.0 IP on June 5, 2025 and 7 ER in 3.1 IP on September 5, 2025. That is the single strongest pitcher-specific input in the whole game, and it pushes both Chicago’s run projection up and Irvin’s innings projection down.

Shota Imanaga

You did not paste an Imanaga-vs.-Washington table, and I could not verify a trustworthy H2H MLB sample for him versus the current Nationals roster in this pass, so I treat that piece as neutral instead of inventing data. What is verified is simply that Imanaga is the probable starter and is making his first 2026 regular-season start.

Bullpen / recent game-state

This series is split 1-1. Washington won Opening Day 10-4, then Chicago answered with a 10-2 win on Saturday. Reuters’ recap of Saturday noted that Cade Horton went 6 1/3 innings and the Cubs bullpen closed with 2 2/3 scoreless innings, while Washington’s early mistakes and walks helped create a crooked number. Reuters’ Opening Day recap noted Washington’s bullpen was excellent in that game, covering 5 1/3 innings and allowing just one run. So the freshest game-state edge favors the Cubs, while the broader two-game series says Washington’s relief corps is not a total disaster.

For broader rolling form, StatMuse shows:

• Cubs team ERA last 10 games: 3.41

• Cubs relief ERA last 10 games: 3.21

• Nationals bullpen ERA (2026 snippet): 5.82 through the opening sample shown on StatMuse.
  Those numbers reinforce the pitching edge for Chicago, especially out of the bullpen.

Run model

I start from the market total of 9.5 and then adjust:

That lands me at Nationals 3.7, Cubs 6.0, total 9.7. Most likely rounded score: Cubs 6, Nationals 4..

1st 5 innings projected score

Full game projected score

Starting pitcher projected boxscore

Irvin’s shorter line is driven mostly by the opponent-history data you provided. Imanaga gets the longer leash because he is the stronger baseline starter and Chicago is at home, but I still keep him under six full innings because it is his first regular-season start.

Projected hitter boxscore

Nationals

Cubs

These hitter lines are scaled to the projected totals and the expected lineups shown on RotoWire, plus the recent offensive signals from the first two games of the series. Ian Happ and Miguel Amaya both homered Saturday, and Washington’s Opening Day win showed live bats from Wood, House, Abrams, Young, and Wiemer.

Wager & Probability Analysis

Using the projected mean score CHC 6.0 / WSN 3.7, my model gives Chicago about 67.8% win probability and Washington 32.2%, which converts to fair odds of roughly CHC -210 / WSN +210.

Moneyline

The side is simple: Chicago is the right side, but not at the current number. The market is already charging heavily for Irvin’s bad matchup and the Wrigley setup..

Full-game total

Because I land only slightly above 9.5, I call the total nearly fair. The wind-out weather and Irvin’s matchup trouble point over, but Imanaga limits how aggressive I want to be.

1st 5 innings total

I could not verify a clean public multi-book F5 total for this game, so I am using 5.0 as the working line rather than calling it fully confirmed consensus.

OPS with runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs

I could verify that MLB’s official team hitting leaderboard supports the exact split “3rd, Less than 2 Outs” for both teams, but the public snippets I could retrieve did not expose trustworthy exact 1-30 ranks for the Nationals and Cubs. I do not want to fabricate those rankings.

Rank chart you asked for

There is also a limitation on “starting pitcher this season” because both probable-pitcher pages show 0-0, -.-- ERA entering today, so there is no meaningful 2026 season rank yet.

The bullpen row needs one caveat: StatMuse’s leaguewide last-10 bullpen leaderboard snippet showed the Cubs at 25th, while the team-specific query showed 3.21 relief ERA over the last 10 games. I’m trusting the exact ERA number and flagging the rank snippet as imperfectly rendered.

Best betting lean

Final projection: Cubs 6.0, Nationals 3.7
Most likely rounded score: Cubs 6, Nationals 4


Why Cubs -1.5 (-115):

• Jake Irvin has been crushed by the Cubs in the recent matchup sample you gave. Since 2024 he is 0-4 against Chicago with an 11.65 ERA, allowing 25 hits, 22 earned runs, 7 HR, and 12 walks in 17 innings. That is the biggest single matchup edge in this game.

• The Cubs just won 10-2 on Saturday and out-hit Washington 9-4. Chicago got length from Cade Horton and scoreless bullpen work behind him, while Washington made mistakes that extended innings and helped Chicago create separation. That is exactly the kind of recent form you want when laying runs instead of just moneyline.

• Wrigley weather is favorable for scoring. The forecast around first pitch is about 56°F with roughly 11 mph wind, and the weather setup at Wrigley is one of the reasons the full-game total is sitting around 9.5. More scoring environment helps the favorite create margin.

• Chicago has the better starter. Shota Imanaga is the stronger arm in the matchup, and he is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 2 starts vs Washington since 2024. That gives Chicago a cleaner path to leading early and holding margin.

• The matchup profile fits a multi-run Cubs win more than a coin-flip game. My model projection was Cubs 6.0, Nationals 3.7, which points to a typical outcome of Chicago by about 2.3 runs. On my numbers, Cubs -1.5 is stronger than the moneyline.
  

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Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

The Rangers send their new addition this offseason in Mackenzie Gore to the mound and let’s face it, he must be thrilled to be out of Washington and hopefully gets some run support in Texas. The Phillies have also struggled against quality lefties and their splits last year showed it. I don’t see this lineup having a ton of early success against Gore and with the Phillies sending lefty Jesus Luzardo to the mound, the Rangers have also struggled against quality lefties. We already saw that in game 1 of this series. I like both starting pitchers to have success and look for the First Five UNDER 4 in this game.

LISTED PITCHERS

RANGERS: GORE

PHILLIES: LUZARDO

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Pittsburgh suffered its second consecutive loss (4-2) to the Mets yesterday after Luis Robert Jr. launched a three-run home run in the bottom of the 11th inning. That defeat is significant for two reasons. First, the Pirates are 11-26 (29.7%; -27.9% ROI) since August 1, 2020, as underdogs of +120 to +270 following an extra-inning affair. Second, Pittsburgh is 123-223 (35.5%; -20.3% ROI) when trying to avoid a series sweep, losing by an average margin of -1.2 runs per game. Pittsburgh falls into very negative 2975-5274 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) and 2542-4537 (35.9%;- 4.4% ROI), systems of mine that date to 2002 and invest against certain moderate-to-large road underdogs. The latter situation is 759-1523 (33.3%; -9.4% ROI) and has lost by an average margin of 1.4 runs per game. Finally, the fact that the Mets used seven pitchers in yesterday’s win doesn’t concern me because MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 679-416 (62%; +3.5% ROI), including 388-230 (62.8%; +3.7% ROI) since 2017. Take the New York Mets as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Sunday, March 29.

Released/revised 3 hour(s) ago

This is a free play on MIN TT Under.

We saw a 2-1 pitcher's duel in Game 1 and another under in Game 2 in Baltimore, and with cool weather we might expect another low score here in Game 3. Let's also point out that Camden Yards has recently became known as a pitcher friendly park, after the changes made to the dimensions in left field in 2022. Shane Baz is the scheduled starter for the Orioles, and he's coming off a solid spring. Last year the Twins ranked 26th in the majors in runs scored in away games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago

The Braves made everyone wait on Saturday but it turned out worthwhile with a dramatic 6-2 win over the Royals.

Dramatic because all six runs came in the 9th inning, with Dominic Smith winning the game with his gand slam. It was the first time in MLB history that a player had a walk-off grand slam in his debut game with a team!

In the bigger picture, it is a great contrast to last season for the Braves when they had the thankless task of opening with seven straight on the coast vs. the Padres and Dodgers...and lost them all. Much better to open at home, and vibes are good for new manager Walt Weiss after Chris Sale and the relievers shut out the Royals 6-0 on opening day.

Grant Holmes gets the start after missing the last two months of the 2025 campaign with arm issues, but so far so good for Atlanta pitchers and the bullpen, which has fired six innings of shutout ball in two games. Meanwhile the KC offense is sputtering, and Sunday starter Seth Lugo saw his efficiency drop last season. We'll take a swing again on the Run Line as we use Atlanta -1.5 runs at +145 and invoke our ".10" rule (it's still s play as long as the line doesn't move more than .10 against us). Play Braves on Run line

Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Boston Red Sox - ML | Good until -155. (Action)

These teams have each taken a game to start the series, setting up a deciding matchup featuring two young pitching prospects. Connelly Early put together strong performances in his limited action last season, and while Rhett Lowder’s numbers were similar, I think that the team that Early has behind him should definitely help him a bit more throughout his career. Nothing against the Reds who managed to sneak into the playoffs last year. But, Cincinnati's not as good as some of the best teams in the MLB, even in the NL. I'm going with Boston on Sunday to win the series.

Released/revised 8 hour(s) ago

Minnesota starter Bailey Ober projects to give up just 2.3 runs with a 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Baltimore’s lineup has hit just .170 (9-53) with a weak .548 OPS against Ober in his career.  The Orioles will start Shane Baz.  The righty projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.  With both starting pitchers projecting well, expect the offenses to struggle resulting in a low-scoring game on Sunday afternoon.

4% Play UNDER the total.

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Released/revised 9 hour(s) ago

I have the Cubs winning this one in Wrigley by margin. Imanaga is on the hill and southpaw is a pitcher I have slated as a guy I am looking to make some money on early in the campaign. Combine that with the fact the Nationals are a team projected to finish at the bottom of the NL East and this is with a look. The moneyline is too expensive and laying the runline with a home team is something I usually shy away from, hence this one not making the client card. For today's free pick- Bet Cubs.

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Connelly Early put on a remarkable performance for the Red Sox in the postseason despite his team ultimately being eliminated, and now Boston gets to see the young phenom throw for an entire year. I’m higher than most on the Red Sox this season as there is a lot of young talent in the organization. Rhett Lowder hasn’t pitched since 2024 and even then it was very little. Expect Early to shut down this subpar Reds’ lineup as Boston picks up the series win. Take the Red Sox.

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Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago