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Ralph Michaels
Major League Baseball
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(953) Washington Nationals at (954) Cincinnati Reds: Total
2% Inning Under 0.5 (-130) Foster Griffin (LHP), Chase Burns (RHP) Must Start
Washington has not scored a first-inning run in 3 straight and only once in their last 9 day games.
The Reds did score yesterday, but have not scored a first-inning run at home in B2B games this season.
Cincy has not scored a first-inning run in 12 straight day games
Foster Griffin is 5-2 NRFI with a 2.12 ERA but it is noted that his L 2 starts were yrfi.
Chase Burns is 8-0 YRFI with a 2.11 ERA
Released/revised 38 minute(s) ago
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THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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First-Inning Report for Thursday, May 14The WagerTalk First Inning Report from Ralph Michaels is your daily cheat sheet for YRFI/NRFI betting. Full game lines and totals with teams that scored in the first inning (and who gave one up) Current streaks (3+ straight 1st inning results highlighted) Starting pitchers listed — Lefty indicators include ...
THE WAGERTALK MLB FIRST INNING REPORT
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First-Inning Report for Monday, May 4The WagerTalk First Inning Report from Ralph Michaels is your daily cheat sheet for YRFI/NRFI betting. Full game lines and totals with teams that scored in the first inning (and who gave one up) Current streaks (3+ straight 1st inning results highlighted) Starting pitchers listed — Lefty indicators included * ...
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Tokyo Brandon
Major League Baseball
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===============
WSN @ CIN
Market used: WSN +162 / CIN -196, full-game total 8.0. Probable starters: Foster Griffin vs. Chase Burns. Game time: 12:40 PM ET, Great American Ball Park, expected temperature around 58–59°F with 16 mph wind.
Projected Score
Team | Projected Runs | Projected Hits | Projected Errors |
|---|---|---|---|
WSN | 4.6 | 8.2 | 0.7 |
CIN | 4.2 | 7.5 | 0.3 |
Total | 8.8 | 15.7 | 1.0 |
WSN has the stronger offensive profile. WSN is scoring 5.4 runs/game, ranking 2nd in MLB, with a .325 OBP and .411 SLG. CIN is scoring 4.0 runs/game, ranking 26th, with a .220 AVG, .305 OBP, and .379 SLG. Recent form also favors WSN: WSN has a .799 OPS and 52 runs over the last 10 games, while CIN has a .677 OPS and 34 runs over the last 10 games.
Burns is a major suppressor, but not a complete shutdown spot. His 2026 line is 4-1, 2.11 ERA, 47.0 IP, 48 K, 1.04 WHIP, and his last seven games show 42.0 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. The risk is the matchup shape: WSN’s lineup is lefty-heavy at the impact spots, and Burns’ home split has been much softer versus left-handed bats than right-handed bats.
Griffin has matched Burns in run prevention, with 4-1, 2.12 ERA, 46.2 IP, 42 K, 1.03 WHIP. His last seven games show 41.2 IP, 1.94 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, but the model does not fully buy the ERA as the true baseline because CIN’s park and right-handed lineup construction add power risk.
Batter-vs-pitcher history is thin. No active hitter on either projected lineup has a meaningful 20-AB sample in this matchup. Burns has faced some WSN bats: CJ Abrams is 1-for-3 with a double and 1.000 OPS, while James Wood and Daylen Lile are each 0-for-3 with 2 strikeouts. Griffin has no meaningful current CIN hitter sample large enough to move the model.
Great American Ball Park pushes power upward. Since 2025, the park has graded as one of MLB’s most favorable home-run environments, with a home-run park factor around 118–119, third-highest range in MLB. That offsets part of the two-starter quality and keeps the full-game total above the market number.
Bullpen edge goes to WSN by recent condition, even though neither relief group is clean. CIN’s relief group has been unstable, with recent bottom-tier indicators in ERA, FIP, xERA, WHIP, walk rate, and home-run rate, and WSN hit six homers in the prior game against CIN pitching. WSN’s bullpen season profile still carries risk, especially with a poor save rate and inherited-runner damage, so the edge is not large.
Tokyo’s Clutch Index - runner on third with less than 2 outs
Team | Rank 1-30 | OPS |
|---|---|---|
WSN | 6 | .912 |
CIN | 28 | .641 |
Rankings — 1 Best, 30 Worst
Category | WSN | CIN |
|---|---|---|
Starting pitcher ERA + WHIP rank, 14+ IP | Griffin: 6 | Burns: 5 |
Bullpen last 10 days ERA + WHIP rank | 19 | 28 |
Lineup last 10 days runs scored + wOBA rank | 5 | 24 |
Released/revised 5 hour(s) ago
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Tigers Mets MLB Feature Bet from a 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper: $15.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a feature bet in the Tigers vs Mets game, and it’s one of the strongest value spots on the board. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-value MLB bet wit ...
Giants Dodgers MLB Feature Bet from a 10-Year MLB Scout and 3-Time #1 Capper: $15.00
Tokyo Brandon just released a feature bet in the Giants at Dodgers game, and it’s one of the strongest value spots on the board. As a former MLB scout for 10 years and a 3-time #1 capper in profit among all 33 WagerTalk cappers in the last five years, Tokyo Brandon knows how to spot edges others miss. If you’re looking for a high-value MLB bet ...
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Drew Martin
Major League Baseball
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"Houston we have a pitching problem on Thursday." Setting us up for an over ticket to cash in for the 11:35am PT First Pitch in the Lone Star State. The Astros have letup more than 240 runs already this season. It is just passing the 40 game mark on the year! Absurdly horrific run prevention from the starters and the bullpen, ranking dead last in baseball for the Astros.
Last time Mike Burrows faced the Mariners bats he letup 11 hits and 6 runs. The last time Luis Castillo faced the Astros lineup he letup 10 hits and 7 runs, lasting just 3 innings. Pitchers park, early start has us on the over for Thursday's free pick.
13-2 (87%) Thursday money line run (+33% PROFIT) 💵
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VERY EARLY THURSDAY BEST BET MLB ($15) MONEY MAKER : $15.00
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Jimmy Adams
Major League Baseball
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Chase Burns has established himself as an emerging superstar in this league and he’ll showcase his talents again on Thursday as the Reds look to get back on track after a tough extra innings defeat yesterday. Burns has allowed a total of just 1 run over his past 2 outings and 2 runs or fewer in 7 of his past 8 starts this season. We know how hitter friendly Great American Ballpark is, and Cincy has more pop throughout their lineup than most people realize. Foster Griffin’s has some concerning metrics in his profile, such as a barrel rate of 11.5%. He’s a slow velo pitcher who the Reds can get to. We’ll take the bullpens out of the equation and play the Reds on the F5 RL.
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5% MLB PERFECT 100% (7-0) THIS SEASON! : $35.00
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For a limited time, get three full days of all-access service from the handicapper of your choice for just $49 — only $16 per day for every play they handicap across all sports, including MLB, NBA, NHL, WNBA, soccer, UFC, tennis, and more.That's $20 off the regular site price.Need more than 3 days? Stack 'em up. Buy multiple 3-Day passes and ride ...
Bruce Marshall
Major League Baseball
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The Mets might have found someone they can beat in the Tigers, who have fallen the last two nights at Citi Field. Those are just the latest in several disappointing Detroit efforts, losing in seven of eight, the offense held to a paltry two runs each of the first two games in this midweek set, and limited to three runs or fewer in six of the last seven games.
As the Mets try to fight back from their slow start, the team might be catching up to Thursday starter Nolan McLean, who has been Carlos Mendoza’s most-reliable performer on the mound, with a 2.78 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Play Mets on Run Line
Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago
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BRUCE BIG THURSDAY HOT COMBO MLB-NHL BIG 3-PACK!!: $29.00
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WAGERTALK 2026 WORLD CUP ALL-ACCESS PASS — $149!
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Ben Burns
Major League Baseball
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Thursday's White Sox/Royals game should see plenty of scoring. Kay has a poor 4.89 ERA and 1.57 WHIP the season. When pitching during the evening, he has a 5.89 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Those numbers are in line with his career (5.39 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) numbers. Bubic's numbers are quite a lot better than Kay's but they're still not amazing. Notably, Bubic walked four in five innings last game and he's now issued 10 free passes over his past three starts. He's also 0-2 for his career when facing the Sox on the road. Bubic is backed by a bad KC bullpen. Entering Wednesday, Royal relievers had a 4.74 ERA (fifth worst in the majors) and 1.45 WHIP. Chicago's bullpen stats aren't much better. Entering Wednesday, White Sox relievers had a 4.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Expect a relatively high-scoring affair. *good at 9 or better
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(4%) MLB TOP GUN (+77.18 UNITS): $25.00
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The runline is baseball's version of the point spread. When betting on the runline, the favorite is -1.5 runs on the spread, with the underdog at +1.5 runs. Betting on the favorite requires your team to win its game by two or more runs. Truly, the runline is the great equalizer - it's just a little easier to place a bet when you've got a 2 run head start, right?
WagerTalk's expert MLB handicappers are runline prediction masterminds.
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Our daily HR home prop article is the most popular such article online!
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Fun MLB Stats - History Guides Your MLB Bets?
What Were the Longest Preseason Odds for a MLB World Series Champ?
Did you make a bet on any of these? If you did, you're an expert already.
- Minnesota Twins: +8000 in 1991
- Florida Marlins: +7500 in 2003
- Minnesota Twins : +5000 in 1987
- Texas Rangers: +5000 in 2023
- Anaheim Angels: +4000 in 2002
Which American League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The top winning team here is the Seattle Mariners of 2001. They grabbed 116 wins, but then simply choked and lost the ALCS. After the Mariners the Yankees in 1998 won a ton of games - 114, in fact, and won the World Series to boot.
After those two MLB behemoths, the Cleveland Indians won 111 times in the regular season in 1954, the Yankees captured 110 wins way back in 1927 and then we have the Baltimore Orioles winning 109 wins in 1969 - but failed to win the World Series.
Which National League Teams Have Won The Most Regular Season Games?
The Chicago Cubs take it. 116 games in 1906. Nuts. They went 116-36. The LA Dodgers plop in behind them, going 111-51 in 2022. The 1909 Pirates pulled off 110 wins. The Mets (really! The Mets!) won a whopping 108 games in 1986 and the Cincy Red of 1975 tied them at 108 games won as well.
Which Teams Have Won the Most World Series'?
Wait, the World Series has been happening since 1903? Indeed it has! And man have we seen a lot of winners and quite a few dynasties.
Naturally, the Yankees top the list of dynasties - they've captured 27 World Series titles. Following WAY behind the Yankees are the St Louis Cardinals with 11 titles, the Boston Red Sox and Oakland Athletics with 9 apiece, and the San Francisco Giants with 8 World Series titles.
Which Player Has Won the Most World Series Titles?
Yogi Berra. Nothing else to say here, obviously it was Yogi. 10 World Series titles!
