Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For March 31

Pittsburgh Pirates -155 Paul Skenes (RHP) Must Start

In the early action on Wednesday we are betting on Paul Skenes to bounce back. Getting in on the Pirates in the overnight betting markets. The former 1st overall draft pick out of LSU had a horrible stat line on Opening Day, however it was greatly exaggerated by multiple defensive miscues. He should have a more clean start here against a Reds lineup that has not faired well against him.

On the other side, Andrew Abbott is a solid pitcher overall, although his numbers are elevated when comparing his day/night splits. This one just missed the client card due to the (-155) price that we shy away from releasing to clients. Therefore for Wednesday's MLB free pick- Bet Pittsburgh.

7-0 (100%) MLB Wednesday run (+23% PROFIT)

18-9 (67%) for over (+32% PROFIT) MLB run overall

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

Don't often look at home teams to lay the run and a half since they'll only likely get 8 at bats but in this case, I'll make an exception. The Dodgers lost last night to the Guardians, who were coming off a Sunday Night Baseball shutout and had to travel to LA to take on the Dodgers. Well, they caught the Dodgers sleeping last night but that won't happen again tonight as Ohtani is going for the Dodgers and Bibee for the Guardians. I see the Dodger bats having a good night tonight, and I like them to win this game by multiple runs in a bounce-back effort. Lay the runline with the Dodgers at home tonight.

Released/revised 1 hour(s) ago

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Fried brings the better run-prevention baseline after a 19-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP 2025 and a scoreless 6 1/3 in his 2026 opener; Gilbert’s baseline is still strong after a 3.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP 2025, though his opener was a 5 1/3-IP, 3-ER outing. T-Mobile Park is still one of MLB’s most run-suppressing parks, with MLB listing it 30th in runs and hits and 20th in homers over 2023-25, while Statcast’s 2025 park factor page showed a 91 run factor there.

Seattle entered this game 5th in MLB in runs and 8th in OPS, while the Yankees were 15th in runs and 17th in OPS; on the mound, New York entered 1st in MLB team ERA and Seattle 8th. Sample too small to trust.

The roster/travel context is mildly favorable to Seattle. New York is continuing a West Coast trip from San Francisco to Seattle, while Seattle stays home after the Cleveland series, so there is no “returning home from road trip” flat-spot deduction for either club. Injury-wise, Anthony Volpe is out for the Yankees and J.P. Crawford out for Seattle, which affects the likely bottom-third lineup construction for both teams. Weather is mostly a non-factor here because the game is at T-Mobile Park, and ESPN listed Seattle gametime conditions in the mid-to-upper 50s.

The cleanest HTH Yankees note is Cody Bellinger: 5 AB, .600 AVG, 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. For Seattle vs. Fried, the preview snippet shows Randy Arozarena 0-for-4, Mitch Garver .929 OPS in 6 AB, and Josh Naylor with no prior matchup listed, which supports a conclusion of “some scattered familiarity, but not enough to override the core talent/park model.”.

Model build

I used this run framework:

• Baseline SP run allowance over expected outing length: Fried 2.1 runs allowed over 6.0 IP; Gilbert 2.4 runs allowed over 5.2 IP.

• Bullpen add-on: Yankees 1.4 runs over final 3.0 IP; Mariners 1.4 runs over final 3.1 IP.

• Park adjustment: -0.35 total runs for T-Mobile suppression.

• Night-game adjustment: -0.05 total runs.

• No-bottom-9 adjustment: -0.05 runs from Seattle because New York is a slight road favorite in my model.

• Travel/fatigue: -0.05 runs from New York for continued road travel; 0.00 for Seattle.

That lands here:

• Projected full-game score: NYY 3.8, SEA 3.5

• Projected full-game total: 7.3

1) Projected score boxes

1st 5 innings

Full game

2) Starting pitcher boxscore projection

3) Projected hitter stat lines

Yankees

Mariners

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline

Full-game total

Using model total 7.3:

Team rank snapshot, 1-30

These are very small-sample ranks, so I’d treat them as descriptive, not predictive.

Why Yankees -112:

1. Fried has the stronger run-prevention profile entering the game.
   In his 2026 opener, Max Fried went 6 1/3 scoreless innings with a 0.47 WHIP, while Logan Gilbert’s opener was 5 1/3 innings, 3 earned runs with a 5.06 ERA so far. That gives New York the cleaner starting-pitching floor.

2. Fried’s form is exactly what you want for a road favorite in a low-total park.
   Reuters’ game recap shows Fried allowed just 2 hits and 1 walk in that opener, and ESPN’s game page confirms this is at T-Mobile Park with Fried vs. Gilbert listed as the probable starters. In a lower-scoring environment, a steadier ace matters more.

3. T-Mobile Park helps the better prevention side.
   Statcast’s park factors list T-Mobile Park with a 91 run factor over the relevant rolling window, which is below league average and supports a suppressed-scoring game. That tends to help the side with the slightly better run-prevention projection, which in this matchup is New York because of Fried.

4. The Yankees’ pitching staff has started hotter than Seattle’s.
   The series preview notes New York opened the season by allowing just one run over three games in San Francisco. That supports the idea that if Fried gets them through six, the bullpen can protect a narrow edge.

5. The market is close enough that even a modest SP edge can matter.
   ESPN’s matchup page had this game around essentially a coin flip, with its predictor at SEA 52% / NYY 48%, and the betting line around Yankees -112 / Mariners -108. When the market is this tight, a model that prefers Fried and makes NYY closer to -119 can justify a small Yankees play.

6. There is at least one notable Yankees batter with good history vs. Gilbert.
   MLB’s preview snippet showed Cody Bellinger is 3-for-5 (.600) with a 1.100 OPS vs. Gilbert. Batter-vs-pitcher data is usually secondary, but in a tight game it is one more plus for New York rather than Seattle..

Released/revised 23 hour(s) ago

Take New York - Seattle UNDER (#963-964) (listed pitchers)

The 'Double Gamer' video below has my take on two West Coast Games for $5 Tuesday: Yankees - Mariners and Dodgers - Guardians. I'll do a brief write-up of the New York - Seattle here.

I'm listing pitchers here only because if either starter gets scratched, we'll be able to re-make this bet at a better number than the current widely available Under 7 (-120).

Unders beget more Unders when it comes to MLB betting. Cold lineups stay cold until proven otherwise; starting pitchers compete with one another for ace level showings and bullpens stay relatively fresh. The Yankees next Over in 2026 will be their first Over of the season -- a lineup that isn't hitting out on the West Coast just yet backed by a pitching staff that has been nothing short of 'lights out' thusfar. Five of the last six meetings between these two teams on this field have finished with final scores of 2-1 or 3-2. Expect more of the same tonight! Take the UNDER.

Released/revised 6 hour(s) ago

What can it do to a pitcher's psyche to get out of Denver and Coors Field as your home park? We're about to find out with German Marquez, who makes his first Padres start tonight at Petco Park vs. the Giants after pitching ten seasons with Rockies...and living to tell about it!

More than a few onlookers believe Marquez could prove a steal for San Diego after being so shellshcoked in the Mile High City, bottoming out with a 3-16 mark and 6.70 ERA last season. Now, though, instead of pitching at 5280 feet, his home games are at sea level, and for what it's worth, he looked completely rejuvenated in the Cactus League at Peoria, especially in his final two starts, striking out 17 across just 9 2/3 IP.

The Giants did finally notch their first win for rah-rah new manager Tony Vitello last night, but it was a 3-2 grinder at Petco, which means SF has scored all of four runs across its first four games. Tuesday starter Logan Webb was hit hard in the opener last Wednesday vs. the Yankees and took the loss, allowing seven runs and nine hits in just 5 IP, and note he was winless in three starts (0-2 record) vs. the Padres last season, with a subpar 4.19 ERA. We use SD at +122 and invoke our ".10 rule" to stick with this Padre recommendation as long as the SD price doesn't drop beneath +112. Play Padres on Money Line

Released/revised 17 hour(s) ago