Today's Free MLB Picks - Expert MLB Predictions For April 12

(967) San Francisco Giants at (968) Baltimore Orioles: Total

First Inning Under +0.5 (-122) Adrian Houser (RHP), Cade Povich (LHP) Must Start

Baltimore is 5-0 & 9-1 NRFI with no first inning runs the L10.

SF is 3-0 & 6-1 NRFI.

Houser has a 3.97 ERA and he is 1-1 NRFI but his last start was a NRFI/
Povich is making his first as his only other appearance was 5 2/3 inning relief last Sunday (3.18 ERA)

Released/revised 21 minute(s) ago

2% Milwaukee (2:10 ET): This is a big price to pay, but I just do not see the Brewers getting swept at home by the Nationals. Despite losing four in a row overall, the Brew Crew are still 8-6 and boast the National League’s third best run differential (+18). They’ve lost as -210 and -178 favorites the L2 days. Lack of offense has been the biggest issue with the lineup producing only six runs total during the four-game skid. In fact, the Brewers had been held scoreless for 16 consecutive innings, prior to Wilson Contreras’ leading off the ninth inning with a HR yesterday. I will point out that - despite being no-hit for the first five innings Saturday, the Brewers did leave the bases loaded in both the sixth and ninth innings. So they could have easily done more damage at the plate.

I certainly expect more offense from the home team this afternoon against Nationals’ starter Zack Littell. The Nats used an opener in front of Littell on 3/31 when he allowed three runs, on a pair of homers, in 5 IP. The team was lucky to escape with a 9-6 victory over St. Louis when Littell started Monday, after trailing 6-3 going into the bottom of the eighth. Littell has thrown just 75 and 70 pitches his first two starts, which means we’re likely to see more of the bullpen today. I know they’ve been good the first two games of this series, but Nats’ relievers are still bottom three in ERA (5.71) after ranking dead last in all of baseball last season.

Brandon Woodruff, who will be starting Sunday for Milwaukee, struggled his last time out with five runs allowed to the Boston Red Sox. But the Brewers still ended up winning that game (8-6), just as they did Woodruff’s first start of the season (6-2 over the Rays). Woodruff has always had Washington’s number, posting a 5-0 record and 1.50 ERA in nine career matchups including seven starts. The Brewers also still have one of the better bullpens (7th in ERA). Not often that I do this, but it’s worth laying this kind of price today. 2% Milwaukee (Play to -225)

Released/revised 50 minute(s) ago

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Time to put your things down and take a Schlit. Two excellent pitchers vs batters they dominate. 4.5 seems way too high.

NYY at TBR — 4/12/2026 projection

There is one major note before the model: the official game pages still list Cam Schlittler vs. Drew Rasmussen for April 12, but there is also a same-day report that Rasmussen was moved to the family medical emergency list. The projection below follows the requested/posted matchup of Schlittler vs. Rasmussen, with confidence reduced because Tampa Bay’s final starter could still change.

Projected full game: Yankees 4.1, Rays 3.6
Projected first 5 innings: Yankees 2.4, Rays 1.8

Why the model lands there

New York has the weaker team batting line overall so far, but the Yankees have still scored 4.38 runs per game and own a .720 OPS vs right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has been the better pure hitting team on the season at 4.62 runs per game with a .713 OPS, and the Rays just beat New York 5-3 on April 10. That narrows the gap offensively, but it does not erase the starting-pitching edge the Yankees get in this specific posted matchup.

Schlittler’s current 2026 surface stats are excellent: 2-0, 1.62 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 16.2 IP, 22 K, 0 BB on the official matchup page. The head-to-head sample provided against Tampa Bay since 2025 is also strong overall: 11.0 innings, 3 earned runs, 13 strikeouts, including a dominant 6.2-inning, 1-hit, 0-run outing at Tampa Bay on August 20, 2025. That combination supports a working expectation around 5 2/3 innings with high strikeout efficiency but still some caution due to his limited MLB sample.

Rasmussen’s posted 2026 line is also strong at 1.80 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 10.0 IP, 10 K, 1 BB, and his 2025-26 head-to-head sample against New York is meaningful: 16.2 innings, 5 earned runs, 18 strikeouts across three starts. That points to real Yankees suppression, especially early in games. The model still gives New York a slight edge because the Yankees’ current split vs right-handers is better than Tampa Bay’s current split versus top-end righties, and because Rasmussen may not be fully stretched if he does start after the off-field absence. Working expectation is about 5.0 innings.

Recent bullpen form leans New York. Over the last 10 games, the Yankees’ bullpen ERA is 3.16, seventh-best in MLB, while Tampa Bay’s relief group ranks lower at 18th in the same StatMuse leaderboard. New York has scored 44 runs in its last 10 games, while Tampa Bay is 5-5 in its last 10 with a .224 team average over that stretch. That late-game difference is enough to swing the model from roughly even after five innings to a narrow Yankees edge by the final score.

Tampa Bay does not get the “returning home from a road trip the day before” deduction. The Rays were already home in this series on April 10 and remain home for April 12, so no flat-spot adjustment was applied.

Score construction

These are model adjustments built from the current team, pitcher, split, and market context above.

Projected boxscore values

First 5 innings

Full game

Projected starting pitcher boxscore

Projected hitter chart

Yankees

Rays

These hitter lines are tied to the current active-roster core on both clubs and the posted game context; the Yankees’ bottom-of-order projection is less certain because Anthony Vol-piss is nearing activation.

Wager & Probability Analysis

Moneyline

Using the projected score NYY 4.1, TBR 3.6:

Full-game total

Using projected total 7.7 against market 7.5:

First 5 innings total

A clean machine-readable consensus F5 line for this exact posted Sunday matchup was not surfaced in the accessible results. Model-only fair read:

Bullpen last 10 days

Lineup run production last 10 days

Released/revised 11 hour(s) ago

Chicago starter Jameson Taillon projects to give up 2.3 runs with a 3.48 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.  Pittsburgh’s lineup has hit just .225 (23-102) with a weak .594 OPS against Taillon in his career.  The Pirates will start Bubba Chandler.  The righty projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.59 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.  With the starting pitching clearly in Chicago’s favor, look for the Cubs to get a solid home win on Sunday afternoon.

Play CUBS (-).

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Released/revised 7 hour(s) ago

Jose Soriano has been dominant to start the season and is a (very) early candidate for the A.L. Cy Young Award. He's 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. In his first start, he held Houston to two hits through six shutout innings. That was followed by six shutout innings against the Cubs, once again he allowed just two hits. Last time out, he allowed one run on three hits, through eight complete innings. He had 10 K's without walking a. batter. Those three games averaged just 4.33 runs with scores of 2-0, 3-0 and 6-2. Abbot's numbers aren't as dominant as Soriano's but he's been respectable. Through three starts, he's got a 3.18 ERA. Go with the under.

Released/revised 19 hour(s) ago