3% Bournemouth (9:00 AM ET): It has turned into a massively disappointing campaign for Brighton after the Seagulls qualified for Europe (Europa League) for the very first time in 2022/23. Not only did they bow out of the Europa League in pretty embarrassing fashion (losing on aggregate 4-1 to Roma in the Round of 16) but domestic form has also taken a turn for the worse with just three wins in the last 14 Premier League matches. Things may have hit a new nadir midweek with a 4-0 loss to Man City and now even Roberto De Zerbi’s future is being called into question. Therefore, I’ve got no problem taking Bournemouth here on the 3-way line (to win) at a plus price. 

Bournemouth (-11) still has an inferior YTD goal differential compared to Brighton (-2), however the Cherries have surged past the Seagulls in the table after Wednesday’s 1-0 victory over Wolves. Now sitting in 10th place, Bournemouth is poised for what would be just their second ever top half finish. Not only have the Cherries lost just two matches since the start of March, they are also unbeaten in their last five home fixtures. And there can be no denying how much better they’ve been compared to Brighton since the start of 2024 (+4.5 xGD vs. -4.4). 

So these are very much two clubs trending in opposite directions at the moment. Thus I am expecting a far different result than the one we saw in the reverse (back in September) when Brighton ran out to a 3-1 win at the Amex. An OG from Bournemouth + two from substitute Karou Mitoma proved to be the difference in that one after the Cherries struck first. Mitoma is one of EIGHT injured players for De Zerbi heading into Sunday, a list that also includes Billy Gilmour. Bad news for a club that has just ONE goal in its L4 matches. Bournemouth does have their share of injury concerns as well, but tactically should exploit Brighton with their high press. Another three points for the Cherries. 3% Bournemouth (Play to +100)