3% Washington (4:10 ET): It’s tough for me to understand how Miami - now 6-21 with a -49 run differential - could be ML favorites over ANYBODY (save for the White Sox and Rockies). That record is second worst in all of baseball (White Sox) and the run differential is third worst (White Sox, Rockies). Last night, as a ML favorite, the Marlins lost 3-1 to the Nationals, which was their fourth consecutive defeat. Let’s not forget how fortunate the Fish were a season ago when they somehow finished 84-78 despite a -57 run differential. Not at all surprised that the “chickens are coming home to roost” (so to speak) as this was a club that screamed “regression” coming into 2024. 

Washington, on the other hand, looks like a far more competitive ballclub this season. We haven’t seen a whole lot of offense from them recently, but remember they just got done playing the Dodgers. It’s still a stronger lineup than what Miami sends to the plate and - on top of that - the Nats have the better starter on the mound Saturday as they send out Mitchell Parker. This will be Parker’s third career big league outing and thus far he’s allowed just two runs and seven hits in 12 IP with 12 K’s and zero walks. Most importantly, the Nats won both games, first as a +300 ML dog against the Dodgers and then 6-0 (+155 ML) against the Astros! 

Parker is a southpaw and Miami’s weak lineup has been especially terrible against lefties with a .193/.244/.272 slash line, not to mention a .236 wOBA and 46 wRC+. So no matter which number you want to choose, it’s ugly, and remember they’ve never faced Parker before. Marlins starter Edward Cabrera (a righty) has a 1.455 WHIP in his two starts and he’s likely to face a lot of lefties in this Nationals’ lineup on Saturday. On top of that, the Marlins’ bullpen has been overworked the L2 days (11 different relievers used), so fade the Fish as favorites again. 3% Washington (Play to +100)