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4% Orlando 1st Half (7:00 ET): Please note that this play is for the first half only. Orlando finds itself down 0-2 in this series, so it’s total desperation mode tonight in Game 3. The good thing for the Magic is they are a) back home (where they’re 29-11 SU/27-13 ATS this season) and b) can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did in the first two games in Cleveland (34.3% overall including 17 of 72 from three). Therefore, I’ll call for a strong start from the home team here in Game 3. Historically, backing a home team in the 1H that’s down 0-2 in playoff series has been a money-maker (65% since 2005). Going into last year, the trend had produced a 36-13-1 ATS run since 2015. 

This makes sense as you’re getting a team at its most desperate. Looking at this specific case, you have to think that without a strong start to Game 3, this series is all but over for Orlando. It sure is interesting that there is essentially no difference between the 1H and full game spread here. That speaks to the oddsmakers’ awareness of the aforementioned trend. But it’s a fair number in my view, given how good the Magic have been at home this season and that the shooting is quite likely to turn around. For the season, they are shooting 48.8% at home. 

Now Orlando have been notoriously slow starters, ranking in the bottom third in 1Q net rating and they’ve also been trailing at the end of the 1Q in 13 of the last 15 games overall. This figures to keep more than a few bettors from backing this well-known trend of backing home teams down 0-2 in the 1H. But not I. Cleveland hasn’t exactly been shooting the lights out in the first two games and - as offensively challenged as they can be - I don’t see them improving on the road. This will be Orlando’s 1st playoff home game since 2019, so expect a fired up crowd. Role players step up at home. Again, I’m not asking the Magic to win/cover the game, just the first half. 4% Orlando 1st Half (Play to -3)