4% NY Yankees (8:10 ET): As discussed on “Morning Wager” (available M-F on WT TV), this is all about fading Milwaukee starter Colin Rea, who ought to feel very fortunate to have a 2.08 ERA because his xERA (expected ERA) currently sits at 6.13. That’s a massive difference. Somehow, someway Rea has gotten away with allowing just five runs on 22 hits. His LOB% of 87.8 is completely unsustainable and he’s finished with three or fewer strikeouts in three of his four starts thus far as well. We’re talking about a pitcher who finished with a 4.55 ERA in 2023 and has bounced around various MLB clubs (as well as Japan!) over the last several seasons. So the “regression monster” looms for Mr. Rea. 

Meanwhile, I like what I’ve seen from Yankees’ starter Luis Gil, who toes the rubber on Friday. Unlike Rea, Gil’s xERA is lower than his actual ERA (2.75) so POSITIVE regression should be coming his way. Considering Gil has yet to allow a HR while giving up just 7 runs total in 19 ⅔ IP, the Yanks should be happy with what they’re getting here. The team is already 3-1 with Gil on the bump this season, the lone loss coming when Chris Bassitt pitched a gem for Toronto. Bottom line: Gil is the better starting pitcher in this matchup. Opponents are batting just .125 against him and he has 29 K's. 

I also think the Yankees should have the edge when this game gets to the bullpens as Brewers’ relievers saw a LOT of action in the series split with Pittsburgh. The Yanks should come into Milwaukee pretty motivated as well after their own series split, which was a very disappointing result considering they were at home and facing Oakland. Yesterday’s 3-1 loss had to be especially frustrating considering 11 hits. Good news is the Yankees are 4-1 this season following a game where they scored 1 or 0 runs. Milwaukee’s lineup, save for yesterday, has been slumping as they’d scored three runs or fewer in 8 of the previous 9 games. We’ve seen some “sharp” action on the visitors here as road favorites are performing quite well this season (63%). 4% NY Yankees (Play to -140)