3% Phoenix 1H ML (9:30 ET): Please note that I am playing just the first half AND the money line. The Suns are down 0-3 in this series and prevailing wisdom is that they are down and out. That’s pretty wild considering they were series favorites heading into Game 1 against the T’wolves, whom they swept (3-0) in the regular season. Now I did not agree with that and actually laid the short number with Minnesota (at home) in Game 1. But now the value has swung to the other side, considering Phoenix closed -5.5 for Game 3. This is a massive swing in the spread for a matchup where there’s no major injury and no change in home court. 

Now, I’m limiting my bet to the first half because if the Suns don’t come out strong, they’re likely dead. I don’t really see a game script where they lose the 1H and then come back to win the game. Conversely, I’m more confident in taking them to have a lead going into halftime than I am winning this game. My number for the full game is right in line with the market, however, oddsmakers aren’t making you pay a “tax” on the 1H spread like they were in Game 3. For most of the season (not this series), the Suns have been a strong 1H team, averaging 59.8 PPG. 

They’ve dipped down to 51.7 PPG in the 1H this series, which is a testament to the Minnesota defense. But with the season on the line, you’ve got to expect an all out effort. This is a team with Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. When those three were all healthy during the regular season, this was an elite offense. Grayson Allen is listed as questionable, but I don’t think he’s a difference maker for the first half. For what it’s worth, Game 3 was the Suns most efficient offensive performance of the series (1.16 points per possession), but that was negated by an awful defensive effort. I know the tendency is to “write teams off” that are down 0-3, but there’s been a massive swing in perception from just the last game, let alone the start of the series. Plus, look at what the Lakers pulled off last night. 3% Phoenix 1H ML (Play to -130)