3% Over Clippers/Mavs (8:00 ET): This series is tied at 1-1 as the Clippers were a very nice winner for us in Game 1 (109-97 as 3.5-point underdogs) only to come up just short in Game 2 (96-93 as 2.5-point dogs). Now the series shifts to Dallas where the Mavericks have lost just one time since March 7th and that was a game (vs. Detroit) where they absolutely did not care due to already being locked into the 5-seed. I’m choosing to focus on the total for Game 3; it's significantly lower than either G1 (221) or G2 (216) as both those games stayed Under. But, to me, that’s opened up some value on the Over as I don’t see how the shooting doesn’t improve here - from both sides. 

The Clippers were not good in Game 2 (36.8% overall, 26.7% from three), yet still led by 6 in the 4Q. Kawhi Leonard of course came back after missing G1, causing the line to flip (closed -1.5) after I bet it. Leonard was not particularly good with only 15 points on 17 FGA and he missed all five 3PA. You’ve got to expect better production tonight, which I’d say is also the case for pretty much everyone on the Clippers after they went from 50% to 26.7% from behind the arc. This is a team that averages just over 115 PPG for the season. 

Dallas’ shooting was absolutely woeful in the first game (38.7% overall, 30% from three) so it wasn’t a shock they improved in G2. Unlike G1, they actually got significant contributions beyond Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Now returning home, I’d expect the role players to continue to contribute. But again, the key factor in this Over play is that we’re getting a number that is 11.5 points lower than where the total closed for Game 1. This would be the lowest O/U for any Clippers game all season as well as the lowest O/U for any Mavs game! Mavs’ home games averaged 233.7 PPG during the regular season! 3% Over Clippers/Mavs (Play to 216)