3% New York (7:30 ET): The team that wins SU in the NBA playoff also covers the spread 90% of the time. At least over the last four years that has been the case. But Game 2 between the Sixers and Knicks proved to be the exception to that “rule” as the former covered (as 5-point underdogs) in a 104-101 loss where the latter made an improbable rally from five points down in the final 30 seconds. The NBA would later admit that Tyrese Maxey was fouled (not once, but twice!) during a chaotic sequence that resulted in the Knicks getting the ball back and eventually making the GW three. But that’s all “water under the bridge” now as the Knicks take a 2-0 series lead to Philly. 

“We’re going to win this series,” Joel Embiid said after Game 2. “We know what we’ve got to fix and we did a better job today, so we’re going to fix it. But we’re the better team and we’re going to keep fighting.” Obviously, the Sixers will come out desperate tonight and there is a history of home teams down 0-2 in the series coming out and playing well, at least for the first half (see CLE-ORL analysis). But there’s been a massive shift in the odds from Game 2 when the Knicks closed as 5-point chalk. Now the Sixers are favored by 4.5. 

That’s a 9.5-point swing (duh!), which is too much. Looking at the other two series that resume tonight, it’s been a 7.5 point swing towards Orlando and 6-point swing towards the Lakers, who are the other two teams down 0-2 and playing at home. So the Sixers have seen the biggest adjustment. This is a sheer numbers play for me and I make Philly -1.5. The Knicks haven’t even shot well yet (just 40.8% in the 2 games) with Jalen Brunson going 16 of 55 (29.1%) overall and 2 of 12 (16.7%) from three. Meanwhile, for Philly, Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have already combined for 131 points and still the team couldn’t win. Another reason not to want to lay it here with the Sixers is that in six games vs. NY this season they have yet to eclipse 104 points. Once again, I could see this being a situation where the winning team (Philly) does not cover. But I also think a Knicks’ outright win is more likely than them failing to cover the number. Take the points. 3% New York (Play to +2)