3% F5 Over Padres/Rockies (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the first five innings. Thus far, Coors Field has seen far less scoring than usual. Just 8.8 runs per game are being scored here, partially owed to the fact it’s still cold in Denver, but also the Rockies just aren’t scoring what we’re used to seeing from them at home (only 3.7 rpg). The good news for Over bettors this afternoon is that the weather forecast looks more ideal for the hitters and the Rockies are due to start figuring things out at the plate sooner rather than later (right?). I think the home team can put some runs on the board - at least early - against SD starter Randy Vasquez. 

But the main reason I like this F5 Over Thursday afternoon is that the Padres are likely to knock around Rockies’ starter Dakota Hudson. How the Under is 4-0 in Rockies’ games w/ Hudson on the mound is one of life’s great mysteries. He has a 5.06 ERA and 1.594 WHIP, having allowed at least three runs in every start. Hudson has allowed a total of 9 runs in his last 10 IP with more walks (8) than K’s (6) in that stretch. Note that the bulk of the Padres’ scoring the L2 games has come early with eight total runs coming in the first five innings including six in the first inning alone. 

That’s been a problem for this Colorado staff all season long. The Rockies have given up the most first inning runs in all of baseball (35). So, again, focusing on just the F5 Over here seems prudent. I would not at all be surprised to see the Padres put up four runs of their own against Hudson. But I also see the Rockies breaking through a bit against Vasquez. Yes, this is a lineup that has finished with 2 runs or less in 8 of the last 10 games. But they had their chances yesterday (6 LOB including bases loaded in 4th). Vasquez allowed 4 runs in 5 innings in his first start and wasn’t particularly good for the Yankees LY. 3% F5 Over Padres/Rockies (Play to 6)