4% Over Mavs/Clippers (3:30 ET): Going back to the well w/ the Over in this series, despite it not coming close for me in Game 3. For many, this best of 7 series got off to a shocking start with Clippers taking Game 1 by a score of 109-97. But I had LA (+2.5) in that one and it was never really close as the Mavs shot terribly (38.7%) and trailed by as many as 29 points. That was without Kawhi Leonard, who returned for the Clips in Game 2 and they’ve now lost both games that Leonard has played (96-93 and 101-90). Leonard’s status is questionable for Game 4 on Sunday, but considering the Clips had their highest scoring game without him, I’m not worried for the purposes of this Over play. 

Both teams have shot horribly in this series with Dallas at 42.1% and the Clippers at 42.6%. Each had one game when they were effective from three (Clippers 50% in Game 1 and Dallas 42% in Game 2), but it was a combined 19 of 63 effort (30.1%) in Game 3. I expect to see better all around shooting for Game 4, specifically from behind the arc. Over the L2 games, the Clippers’ spacing has been poor and they are settling for far too many jumpers. The ball movement, with Leonard on the floor, wasn’t the same as we saw in Game 1. For Dallas, I expect both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to have big games today. 

The big story, for me, when handicapping this total is how much lower it is than what we saw in Game 1 when the O/U closed 221. It was down to 216 for Game 2 and 213.5 for Game 3. Now we’re all the way down to 208.5, a 12.5 point difference from that first game. Given the teams have yet to combine for more than 206 pts in any game in the series, the drop is understandable, however the value is now clearly in going the other way and taking the Over. Both teams averaged over 115 PPG in the regular season! This is the only series w/o an Over so far and I predict that changes on Sunday. 4% Over Clippers/Mavs (Play to 213.5)