4% Miami Team Total Over (7:05 ET): This is reminiscent of the end of the NBA’s regular season when I was able to frequently cash Overs on - what I perceived to be - ridiculously low team totals. Now, wouldn’t you know, we’ve got the same thing here in the playoffs. Obviously, Miami is “up against it here,” facing a Boston team that is so much better in every regard. Plus, it doesn’t help that both Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are out for the Heat. But all we are asking them to do here is get to where they got in Game 1 - 94 points. Yes, it took a 35-point 4Q when the Celtics put their reserves in the game. However, I fully expect Miami to shoot better than 12 of 37 from three in Game 2 tonight. 

The Heat have been held under 100 points in B2B games three different times this season. However, at no point, have they been held under 96 pts in B2B games during 2023-24. Obviously, not having Butler is a big loss. But, as I mentioned above, expect better three-point shooting from Miami tonight compared to what we saw in Game 1. I’m looking at the fact that Tyler Herro was just 4 of 13 from behind the arc on Sunday. His shooting should definitely improve. I also expect the Heat to have more than six free throw attempts, which is what they had in Game 1. 

I prefer playing Miami Over their TT to taking the points because of what we saw in Game 1. Even if the Celtics run away with things again, we’re not dead as the Heat can “simply” make another run against the Boston backups. But I definitely expect Miami to score more than 58 points in the first three quarters tonight. They come in averaging 109.9 PPG for the season. Boston allows 109.0 PPG. Yes, “this is the playoffs,” but there’s enough of a “buffer” between those averages and the current market price where I’m comfortable projecting the Heat to go Over the TT. All they need to do is top their scoring from Game 1, which isn’t that big of an ask. 4% Miami Team Total Over (Play to 96)