4% Crystal Palace +0.5 (10:00 AM ET): Note that I’m playing CP +0.5 (spread) and not the 3-way line. That said, the Eagles are certainly a “live dog” in this spot. They currently sit 14th in the table, one spot and three points behind Fulham, however there is no denying which Premier League side has been in better form recently. Palace have won three straight under Oliver Glasner, outscoring three opponents in the top half of the table (Liverpool, West Ham, Newcastle United) by an aggregate score of 8-2. There’s been absolutely nothing phony about those results either as Glasner’s side has won the xG battle in all three. 

Fulham is admittedly a “tougher out” at home where they’ve claimed two-thirds of their points this season. But even at Craven Cottage, I struggle to see how Marco Silva’s club is favored in this price range given three losses in the last four fixtures including two straight here on home soil. As expected, the Cottagers fell 3-1 to Liverpool last time out and considering the Reds’ own recent form, that result looks worse in retrospect. Fulham is worse off than Palace in xPts (expected points) and xGD (expected goal difference). Plus you might recall last season when they were dead last in xGA (expected goals allowed) and fourth worse in xGD. 

Both these clubs are safely “on the beach,” meaning they’re safe from relegation. But in terms of motivation and recent form, Palace has the clear edge. Also consider that two of three sides that Fulham recently lost to (Liverpool, Newcastle) were beaten by the Eagles over the same stretch. Those were really impressive wins by Palace as they looked like the better side in both  fixtures. There’s a genuine enthusiasm surrounding the club since Glasner took over while I think Fulham is simply looking forward to the end of the season. Remember - by taking the +0.5 - we win in case of a draw. Considering three of the last four meetings have ended level, that’s a nice luxury to have. 4% Crystal Palace +0.5 (Play to -160)