3% Seattle F5 (8:05 ET): First off, please note that I’m playing only the first five innings of this matchup (money line). Entering the week, the AL West seems like a division that is really “up for grabs.” The reigning World Series Champion Rangers are in first, but only 12-11 on the season after dropping two of three over the weekend in Atlanta. Right behind them are the surging Mariners, who had won four in a row prior to splitting a Sunday doubleheader out in Colorado. Looking at the run differential column, it looks as if maybe these might be the only two legit good teams in the division. What I want to exploit in Tuesday’s series opener is what looks to be a substantial starting pitching edge for the visitors. 

Logan Gilbert will be on the mound for Seattle. So far he has a 2.33 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in four starts and is 4th in Stuff+. It’s not just Gilbert either; the Mariners have been consistently getting quality outings from their starting rotation. It had been eight straight quality starts going into Sunday’s doubleheader and the rotation has a collective 1.44 ERA L10 games. I fully anticipate Gilbert keeping the trend going as he has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. Texas and allowed just two runs each of his three starts against them last season. 

Toeing the rubber for the Rangers will be Dane Dunning and I’ve just never been a big believer in him. Now he’s pitched better than expected in his first four starts of 2024. But each of those four starts have seen Dunning surrender a HR. He has a 4.28 ERA in eight previous starts vs. Seattle. I won’t say the Mariners are better than the Rangers right now, but Gilbert is certainly a better pitcher than Dunning in my view so playing the former at basically even money for the F5 seems like a logical way to go. Gilbert has gone longer than 5 innings in every start and allowed just one run three times. 3% Seattle F5 (Play to -125)