3% Over Chelsea/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): Aston Villa, currently in the Europa Conference League semifinals, seems well on their way to more European football next season as they are currently fourth in the Premier League table on 66 points. That’s six (points) ahead of Tottenham, but Spurs have two matches in hand. That means - in order to stay locked into the fourth and final Champions League spot - the Villains must continue to get results. Saturday sees them matched up with Chelsea, who are also still thinking of European football next season, but the Blues are coming off a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Arsenal midweek. 

The market definitely moved against Villa midweek, thinking it was a bad spot off the shootout victory over Lille in the Europa Conference League. However, Unai Emery’s side responded with a 3-1 win over Bournemouth. That extends their unbeaten streak at home to five consecutive matches, four of those being wins, with 13 goals scored. So I really don’t have any concern over Villa finding the back of the net here, at home, against a side that just conceded five times midweek. But the Villa backend has to give you pause. They’ve conceded at least 1.5 xG in 11 straight EPL matches, so the number of goals actually conceded should be a lot higher. 

Chelsea tends to have all sorts of finishing issues (we saw that again in the FA Cup loss to Man City), but here the Blues will get back leading scorer Cole Palmer (25 goals), who missed the match with Arsenal. That should be a big boost. Also, in the last nine visits to Villa Park, the Blues have scored a total of 20 goals. This team is better than its record (5th in the league in xPts) but lack of defense remains the concern. So I am expecting an Over here as the two sides should be able to account for at least four total goals. 3% Over Chelsea/Aston Villa (3.5, to -125)