2% AS Roma +0.5 (12:00 ET): Quite frankly, I am stunned that we are able to get a half-goal head start with Roma in this fixture at such a cheap price. Now the Giallorossi do have the Europa League semis on deck (Thursday at Marseille). So there is the chance we could see changes to the Starting XI. Especially considering Roma just had to play out the final 18 minutes of a resumed match with Udinese on Wednesday and needed a late stoppage time goal just to get the win. That came on the heels of a 3-1 loss to fellow Champions League chaser Bologna. So the fixtures are definitely starting to pile up for Daniele De Rossi’s side. But the +0.5 is simply too good to pass up here. 

Napoli is having quite the disappointing campaign. Last year’s Scudetto winners (Serie A Champs) have already relinquished that crown to Inter Milan and find themselves down in eighth place (49 points), three spots and nine points back of Roma. There’s also a definite gap in goal differential between Napoli and some of the other Champions League contenders. Whereas Roma has outscored the opposition by 20 goals this season, Napoli is only +9. The last two weeks have seen Napoli pick up just one point, despite facing a couple of sides near the bottom of the table. They drew with Frosinone 2-2 and then lost 1-0 to Empoli. 

You’d have to go all the way back to January to find the last time Napoli kept a clean sheet. It’s the longest stretch the club has gone without recording a single clean sheet in the top flight since 1998! So expect Roma to score here. Even with Serie A getting a 5th Champions League spot for next season, Napoli’s chances aren’t looking so good. Meanwhile, Roma cannot afford to rely on the Europa League for entry into the UCL next season, considering Bayer Leverkusen also remains in that competition. Thus even a point would be huge for the visitors, who are 5th in the table - four points behind Bologna and now only three points up on sixth place Lazio (who won Saturday). Plus 7th place Atalanta has a match in hand. Roma won the reverse 2-0 (Napoli down to 9 men) and should get at least a point on Sunday. 2% AS Roma +0.5 (Play to -140)