Bryan Power

THE PLAY: New York Yankees +121 M Stroman (RHP), P Lopez (RHP) Must Start

I'm gonna punch back at the market, which for a second straight day seems to think the Twins are beating the Yankees. It didn't happen yesterday (the Yanks won 5-1) and I don't think it's going to happen today, despite the presence of Pablo Lopez on the mound for the home team.

Now Lopez has been great so far in 2024 with a 0.98 WHIP. The Twins have won each of his last four starts, a couple of those by wide margins. Lopez had 10 strikeouts and zero walks his last time out, which ended up being an 11-1 win over Seattle. But this is a much better offense that he'll be facing Wednesday. The Yankees are currently 2nd in wRC+ (119) … that's a big reason why they are 9-3 so far in May.

A lot of the Yankees' skepticism in the market for today has to do with Marcus Stroman starting. But I actually think Stroman matches up fairly well against the Twins' lineup, which relies heavily on the HR ball and doesn't walk often. Stroman is more of a ground ball pitcher. I also believe that Minnesota is still getting too much residual “love” for its recent 12-game win streak, which came mostly at the expense of the White Sox and Angels (AL's two worst teams). Outside of those 12 straight victories, the Twins are five games below .500 in ‘24. NY has the best record & run differential in the American League. So they probably shouldn't be an underdog here. 

THE PLAY: REGULATION Betis -105

Real Betis is seeking to secure European football for next season. With a win Thursday, they would do just that, though it remains to be seen which competition they'd be headed to - the Europa League or Europa Conference League. As it stands now, Betis is in 6th place (very little chance of finishing 5th) and one point ahead of 7th place Real Sociedad (who also plays Thursday). It is a virtual lock that 6th place will head to the Europa League and 7th the Conference League. 

Betis certainly would prefer to be in the more prestigious competition, so finishing 6th or higher has its advantages. Fortunate for them, this next fixture is against Las Palmas, perhaps the most out of form side in all of La Liga right now. Newly promoted for the 2023-24 season, Las Palmas got off to a great start and were top half of the table after 24 matches. But a dire run that has seen them go 11 straight w/o a win (including 8 straight losses!) has dropped them to 14th. 

Perhaps most damning is that Understat has Las Palmas dead last in the league in xPts (expected points) and xGD (expected goal difference), meaning they're pretty fortunate not to be in the relegation zone. They're advanced metrics have been pretty horrible all season, so you could see the regression coming. During this winless run, Las Palmas have failed to score in seven of the last eight matches, so it's been real bad. Betis have won four of five and should claim all three points in this one.