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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(511) Denver Nuggets at (512) Minnesota Timberwolves

Event:
(511) Denver Nuggets at (512) Minnesota Timberwolves
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
May 12, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – (511) Denver Nuggets at (512) Minnesota Timberwolves Total Over 204.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Over Nuggets/T’wolves (8:05 ET): Reports of the NBA Champions’ demise were greatly exaggerated as I cashed the Nuggets (+4.5) in Game 3 when they won outright in dominant fashion, 117-90. Clearly, it was a much better all around effort from Denver, who played its most complete game so far this postseason. They easily won the 1Q and 1H (which has been a rarity for them in the playoffs) and shot 53.7% from the floor en route to a playoff-high 117 points. The starting five combined to go an incredible 10 of 19 from three! 

Certainly, there is a case to be made for the T’wolves bouncing back in this spot (zig-zag theory!) They shot just 30.3% from three and 43.7% overall in Game 3, ending up with only 90 points. This season, Minnesota is a perfect 11-0 SU and ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss! I am absolutely anticipating a better offensive effort from the home team here as they shot better than 50% overall and 40% from three in the two games in Denver. How much better remains to be seen, but I have to believe we’re getting more than 100 points from the host team tonight. Anthony Edwards has averaged 30.4 points this postseason. Karl-Anthony Towns is at 19.7 points and 8.4 rebounds while Rudy Gobert is averaging 12.0 points and 10.2 boards. 

None of the three games in this series have seen both teams score 100+ points. I think that changes tonight and thus, if I’m correct, then we should have ourselves a relatively “sweat-free” Over. As long-time followers know, I often like to “buy low” (not to mention “sell high”) and with a series low O/U of 204.5 (five points lower than the closing # for Game 1), it’s a good time to “buy low” on the two offenses. Game 1 would have gone Over this number, which is the lowest for either team all season after Game 3 (went Over) was the previous low.  I can all but guarantee improved offense from the T’wolves while it certainly looked like the Nuggets “figured it out” last game. 3% Over Nuggets/T’wolves (Play to 207)

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