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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(201977) Real Sociedad at (201978) Barcelona FC

Event:
(201977) Real Sociedad at (201978) Barcelona FC
Sport/League:
SLL
Date/Time:
May 13, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-125
Play:
3% – REGULATION Barcelona FC -125
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Barcelona (3:00 ET): It will be two of La Liga’s top six concluding matchweek 35 on Monday. A case can certainly be made that Real Sociedad needs the three points more than Barcelona does here, as the former are looking to lock down a Europa League spot by finishing sixth in the table. They are currently only two points up on Real Betis, who faces Almeria on Sunday, so there’s a decent chance Sociedad will actually come into this fixture in seventh place. Their season concludes with a match against Betis, which likely determines the second Europa League slot in La Liga. 

But as you often see at this point of the European football season, the “must-win” nature of some of these matches leads to an overreaction in the marketplace. That’s what we have here as Barcelona is being priced far too cheaply at home. Now last week’s 4-2 loss at fellow top four side Girona ensured Barca can no longer win La Liga this season. But the perennial heavyweight can take solace in their solid metrics. Understat actually has Barca essentially level with champs Real Madrid in xPts. A spot in next year’s Champions League is already assured and finishing second in the league remains a possibility for Xavi’s side, which I think is going to want to bounce back from last week’s result, their third loss in four matches across all competitions.

No, it’s not Camp Nou (under renovation), but Barcelona have won 13 of 17 La Liga matches at their temporary home of Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys this season. When you consider the recent “dip” in form, note the teams Barca lost to were: PSG (Champions League), Real Madrid and Girona. Prior to that, they’d been dominant in the league, going unbeaten in 10 straight with eight victories. You’d have to go all the way back to December to find the last time Barcelona went consecutive La Liga matches without recording a win. So playing them off a loss, at this price and at home seems like a wise decision to me. 3% Barcelona (Play to -140)

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