3% Under Mariners/Twins (7:40 ET): A RARE late update from me, but I love the fact we’re able to get this Under at 8.0. Minnesota has won 13 of its last 15 games but Seattle starters have largely been absolutely dominant of late with 2 ER or less allowed in 22 of the last 24 games. So runs should be scarce tonight at Target Field with a starting pitching matchup of George Kirby vs. Chris Paddack. Kirby, despite an injury scare his last time out, has a 0.50 ERA and 0.722 WHIP for the Mariners his L3 starts. Not to be outdone, Paddack has a 2.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his last three starts.

These teams did combine for 16 runs last night, but that’s an exception for recent results involving the Mariners, who are 11-2-1 to the Under the L14  games. They have not gone Over in B2B games since April 5th. With Kirby on the bump, there’s a great chance that streak continues. Since allowing 13 runs in B2B starts vs. Toronto & Cleveland in early April, Kirby has allowed just four runs total in three starts with a 28-2 KW ratio and just 16 hits allowed in 24 IP. What’s crazy is he’s actually been a bit unlucky when it comes to both BABIP (.315) and strand rate (65%). Once those numbers begin to normalize, you’re looking at one of the best starters in the entire game. 

Paddack just tossed six shutout innings vs. Boston his last time out. He hasn’t allowed a run in each of his last two home starts and it was just two hits allowed vs. the Red Sox. We’ve got two good bullpens here and Twins’ home games have generally been low scoring with an average of just 7.7 runs per game scored this season. Perhaps the best sign for Paddack heading into tonight is that Seattle has the highest K% against righties. Save for one terrible start at Baltimore, he’s been great. Look for a low-scoring game here. 3% Under Mariners/Twins (Play to 7.5)