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Bryan Power

Bryan Power

(565) Dallas Mavericks at (566) Oklahoma City Thunder

(565) Dallas Mavericks at (566) Oklahoma City Thunder
May 9, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – (565) Dallas Mavericks at (566) Oklahoma City Thunder Dallas Mavericks Total Under 106.5 (-110)

3% Under Dallas Team Total (9:30 ET): In five playoff games thus far (all wins), Oklahoma City has yet to allow more than 95 points. In those five wins, they’re giving up an average of just 90.6 PPG. So I don’t get why Dallas’ team total has been set so high for Game 2. I know the Mavs found some offensive success early in Game 1 before ending at just 39.3% shooting. But outside of Kyrie Irving and a clearly hobbled Luka Doncic, there’s not much to be fearful of with this team at the offensive end. Sure, we could see improvement from Doncic after he was 6 of 19 from the field in Game 1, including 1 of 8 on 3PA. But that doesn’t mean we see double digit improvement from the team in terms of points scored, which is what this number is implying. 

Kyrie Irving finished with just 20 points in Game 1, but shot well. Now HC Jason Kidd somewhat “waved the white flag” late and that is why the Mavs had a 16-point 4th quarter. But their problem all game long was limited efficiency in terms of half court offense and I anticipate that being a problem the rest of this series. It also wasn’t a horrific game from three - by any means - for the Mavs. So I don’t see a ton of increased production coming from beyond the arc in this game. 

In the postseason, Dallas is averaging just 105.3 points per game. In three of the four road games, they’ve failed to break 100. They very well may score more in Game 2 than they did in Game 1, but I just do not see them getting past this number. Not talked about enough is the Mavs not having Maxi Kleber, who is a great defender but also shot 10 of 18 from three in Round 1 against the Clippers. If this game turns into a blowout similar to Game 1 - and I think it could - then once again we’ll see the scoring slow down late. I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a big game from Doncic considering he’s shooting 39.5% overall in the playoffs including 22.7% from three. 3% Dallas Team Total Under (Play to 105)  

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