2% Bayern Munich +0.5 (3:00 ET): Bayern will strive to make it an all-German Champions League Final as long-time rival Dortmund has already advanced (shockingly) thanks to some fortuitous bounces off the woodwork against PSG in the other two-legged semifinal. In the first leg between Bayern & Real Madrid, things ended level (2-2) at the Allianz Arena as each side converted a penalty, Los Blancos’ coming late (83rd minute). I thought it was a solid showing from Bayern. Yes, they must now win at the Bernabeu (where Real Madrid has not lost in 13 months). But by playing the spread (+0.5), we only need them to stay level again after 90 minutes + stoppage time, which (I believe) is quite doable. 

Real Madrid’s Champions League resume doesn’t take a back seat to anybody and they’ve already been crowned La Liga Champs for 2023-24. But while the story of Bayern’s season (for now) is failing to win the Bundesliga for the first time in over a decade, let’s take note that Thomas Tuchel’s side still sports the best xG differential per 90 minutes in all of Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. All the metrics suggest it should have been a tight race between Bayern and Leverkusen in Germany, which sounds odd as the former is yet to have even clinched third place. 

But Bayern won’t care about the Bundesliga for a chance if they are able to win this competition. Again, I’m not necessarily confident in projecting them to advance to the Final vs. Dortmund. But I do believe a win inside of 90 mins + stoppage time is more likely than a loss and thus grabbing the +0.5 is a nice luxury to have. It’s pretty unheard of to get Bayern +0.5 at this price. Considering I liked what I saw from them in the first leg (when they had the edge in shots & possession), I think we see no worse result for Bayern and added time is a distinct possibility here. 2% Bayern Munich +0.5 (Play to -130)